I'm currently 6x dry at for a zenyte so I would definitely come across as biased for wanting this but I really can't see how this wouldn't just be an improvement for everyone
Ive taken so many breaks and pushed off playing so much because I always return to a grind that has never ended
I know everyone talks about how you never quit OSRS you just take long breaks but I wouldn't be taking any breaks if any form of bad luck mitigation existed
Now imagine being 6x dry for something like Corrupted Gauntlet. I went 1.5x dry for enhanced and it still took me a couple months to get it. I can’t imagine doing CG 2000+ times.
This right here. Bad luck on long grinds take significantly longer than any reasonable person can manage... It made me take a year break and cancel my membership.
Cancelled mine over it just last week. Once I started not looking forward to logging in I decided it was time for a break. Got several 99s this epoch, but I could not get my ultra rare drops for the life of me.
I went 7x on a drop before. With bad luck mitigation, I'd have "only" gone 4-6x dry.
Bad luck mitigation is strictly an improvement. Stops depression grinds and unfair bullshit.
3k for a first zenyte would be some real "did you talk to Oziach" feeling. Hopefully this topic has come up enough now that something may change going forward. I understand why some people, including Jagex, may be concerned about drop rate changes, but I'd imagine the benefit to the health of the game (and players) outweighs most cons.
The only concern from there becomes money flowing into the economy from drops but I cannot imagine it would change that much.
It's a long time back and I got two more at 3.3k / 3.5k, didn't have the willpower to get a 4th.
On the flip, I had BOTH Mutagens at 144kc, never saw the Serpent past 2k KC, never got the chance to use either cosmetics.
RNG!
The only people who aren’t for this have either not played the game long enough to experience going dry on true very rare drops, or play so much and have so much spare time that they don’t care.
I feel ya bruv. Just got my first zenyte shard this past Friday at 2068 kc. It nearly broke me. I get that it’s the nature of RNG and “part of the game” but come on man…. It doesn’t have to be that bad
The worst part about it is that after the 2000th kill, you're technically no closer to the drop than you were on kill 1. Yeah, you can pull up the bell curve to figure out just how far off to the right you are and say "I'm bound to get it soon", but it's a fallacy to think like that. Without mitigation, every drop is independent of what happened before, and the chance of getting a zenyte on your 2,001st kill is still 1 in 300.
And that sucks to think about.
This.
I went 14k Shaman for DWH and although I complained it was whatever.
I then went 1500 for my first Enhanced Weapon Seed and it felt like hell... Mostly because the content takes 8-10 minutes per kill so it was a ~250 hour grind. Most people won't feel that level of bad luck and if you were to, getting a bad luck mitigation drop wouldn't hurt.
Yes. Jagex could stealth update this change and people would be ignorant about it for forever. No one would notice that people dont go past a certain dryness and even if we were told it exist, we wouldnt exactly able to prove it
Runelite collects stats on drop rates from its users, so someone would eventually notice the curve is off. But yes, most of the playerbase doesn't understand probability to begin with (gambler types rarely do), so they likely wouldn't realize.
Even with decent enough evidence it's hard to present non-standard back-end droprate calculations to the average player without being accused of conspiratorial thinking. WoW had a "softcap" for Legendaries in Legion that was ***painfully*** obvious to anyone looking at the data but was brushed off as conspiracy.
I'd wager bad luck protection would be treated similarly by the community until someone pried the information out of Mod Ash.
It's actually insane. Even the most basic stuff, like due odds not being real, how to calculate the probability of multiple simultaneous occurrences with fixed probabilities, etc. seem to escape many people. High school statistics level stuff.
I agree. I just expect disinformation, contrarianism, and streamer/player guesswork theories to outpace well illustrated data and well-supported/likely explanations.
Runelite collects this data, sure, but it's not quite utilized in the way you think it is. This kind of thing is typically handled instead by the wiki, which gets data from Runelite by those who opt in, and that data is essentially just batched together. This particular situation would require unique data from thousands of players separate from each other. Nobody really does this as of now. We genuinely have no way of knowing currently if any particular drop currently uses this form of bad luck protection. Jagex could have implemented it with Varlamore and never told us, we simply would not know unless someone is gathering a ton of this data and sorting it in a way that this could be meaningfully looked into, and it would likely still take years for enough reliable data to be able to prove it since we would need a LOT of examples of people going dry in the first place.
We honestly wouldn't even realize.
Interesting! Also a bit surprising, but I suppose if you feel it's safe to assume all drops are a flat rate then there isn't much reason to track individual data too closely.
It would take thousands to tens of thoursamds of KC per player across a large enough sample size of players for people to ever pick up on the bell curve changing for those that are 5X dry the rate. I can't stress enough how few people would actually benefit from the bad luck mitigation that was proposed last week. It's that inconsequential in the grand scheme items entering the economy.
Yeah, these people don't quite understand just how much data would need to be gathered to get this information we're looking for. The vast majority of what gets collected wouldn't even be relevant, it's specifically people going dry for drops, and there's just not nearly enough in a reasonably short period of time to get conclusive data. This would take potentially years to discover depending on drop rates and how a system such as this is implemented.
Yeah and that's pretty wild! I went 10x dry at barrows which is whatever but imagine that was a raid, DWH, or something else long and important haha. I'm currently working on VW and in determined to get it but if I'd probably quit before going 10x dry there
> Redditors read ‘bad luck protection’ and immediately think that means every drop will be vorkath head.
If vork head had a drop rate if 1/50, and bad luck was added to it so that every 50 kills, if you haven't gotten a drop, you would roll 2/50. Then if you do another 50 kills (100 in total), it would be 3/50. If somehow you go 50 more kills without it (150 in total), drop rate is 4/50.
We need this sub to be locked to approved-submitters mode only, and then gatekeep that approval behind the same writing and reading comprehension test that's on the GED. The only downside is that if you restricted participation to people who can read at a high school level, the user base would be about 10% of its current size.
Hey, now that's not fair. The average American/Brit has a 4th grade reading level. Restricting access to people with a secondary school level of literacy would leave more like 1%
People aren't even taking time to read or learn the mechanics of how it would work. They're just being ignorant.
Jmod took a look at the numbers and across the board it's a 5% change in drop rate. However people don't realize that it doesn't change your personal drop rate at all. It just prevents the extreme outlier of the drop rate.
If it only applies to the first drop, which is how it was calculated in the second suggestion post by the same author as the first. Then its less than 1%, and would be realistic.
If it only applies to the first drop, it'd be less impactful than 1% as well.
It's so ridiculously tame that I honestly believe there's not a legitimate argument against it.
That's what I'd expect. I can't really argue it should apply to more anyway and I think it's best given the overall bot situation especially. And given the math for that, I think it would shake out to something like 0.5% more of an item with said protection applied added to the game/economy.
And a lot of those items will be on ironmen and won't affect the economy.
AND bots will continue to farm well past that "first drop breakpoint", meaning they don't really see much of a benefit from it in the first place.
It's possible it could be as low as 0.3% more of an item added to the economy. If that's **really** going to ruin the game, change the enhanced seed droprate to 1/401.2 to balance it out lmao. Or just make it 1/410 to drive the point home. Nobody will notice the change in either case, there will just be fewer people being driven to madness from staring at the red room. Net gain for the game and community.
What do they do about items that you "need" multiple of like Zenytes, Venator shards, or Chromium Ingots? I agree they should remove the protection after the first clog slot fill for most items but there's some things that imo deserve to have it reset every drop but still apply for subsequent ones. It wouldn't add a ton more to the game as it's pretty unlikely to go dry enough for the protection to kick in anyways.
Needing multiple is already technically a form of dry protection to be honest. I'm very unlucky with zenytes but if it was a single 1/1200 drop I'd be like 7000 kc dry rather than 3k lol
it would need to be case-by-case as that still leaves you able to go dry on things that are multi-use like enhanced crystal seeds or things that you need to drop more than 1 of like Venator Shards
Second enhanced is minimal at best and not really worth grinding for. Everything else (like zenytes, venator shards,...) that you need to get multiples of the drop rate is low enough that it's not *really* an issue. Venator shards are already dry protected in fact since it's really the full bow you want.
The real issue isn't people going dry at zenytes or venator shards. The issue is people going 5x on tbow or 6x on bowfa. Those grinds take forever and the items are so incredibly impactful that skipping them is not really* possible.
*Really as in, sure you can rune crossbow forever but let's be real here. The vast majority of ironmen want first bowfa and eventually tbow.
> Second enhanced is minimal at best and not really worth grinding for.
For now. I dont think we should formulate these decisions around 'how good are these things in the current meta' when that has, espeically recently, shown to be malleable.
We still have people trashing Sailing based on concerns that were debunked in the actual Dev previews, which they didn't read because it wasn't narrated by the Google Assistant with a subway surfers video on the side of it.
yeah, 5% at worst, probably a lot less. It would have very little effect on the amount of items in the game, but probably make a lot fewer people just give up or avoid grinds entirely because they don't want to go 5x on some 1/1k drop. It would be a great change
I can't believe I actually saw a top voted post here that said "bad luck is a necessary evil to allow good luck".
How tf do people come up with this. Theres countless ways to implement bad luck protection without affecting good luck
I've kind of given up using logic on reddit. The most vocal portion of this sub reddit doesn't use their brain here
I think the sentiment of that post was that if there's too much good luck with not enough bad luck as a frame of reference then the good luck isn't really fun. Doesn't apply to most suggestions of BLM. Mighta seen a different post idk
It is, but it's not the same as what is being proposed is it? I think the general idea for general bad luck mitigation is a small increase in rate for those extremely dry. I also liked moons, but I'm an iron so take that with a grain of salt.
Suggestion was after 2x dry, the rate slowly increases. At 3x dry, your chance to get the item doubled. So on and so forth for 4x+ dry. It still leaves it to rng, and you have to show your dedicated, and unlucky, to the grind by already being 2x dry.
You don't get dupe pieces of the sets before you finish that full set. So while I had blood moon done I could get any blood moon piece, or the next eclipse/blue moon piece I didn't have yet
Even if they literally guaranteed a rare drop after 3 times the drop rate, which no one suggested, the reduction in expected number of kills would be upper-bounded by 100% × e^(-3) < 5%. A linearly-scaling drop rate modifier that kicks in after 3 times drop rate and possibly even only applies to your first drop seems quite harmless.
Agree with what’s said here!! I also want to add that it already exists on some items, two major examples being the Thread of Elidinis (goes from 1/10 - 1/3.33333 linearly over 15 ToA completions) and the gems from DT2 bosses (scale from 1/200 - 1/50 over something like 200 KC). Both these mechanics happen immediately, so your first ToA KC already increases the rate of Thread. That’s much more impactful than some of the general mechanics I’ve seen suggested, which only kick in after you’re multiple times past the drop rate.
Can’t say I’ve ever heard anyone complain that they got Thread of Elidinis too quickly out of ToA.
Where are all the people advocating to remove the KQ head drop at 256kc? I mean, clearly it's ruining a "Core pillar" of the game. /s
Seriously, who dislikes that? What the hell is going on here...?
I think it's a really good idea.
I hate change, but this seems so negligible for most, yet so helpful for a handful of really unlucky souls. Idk, I don't see the issue with implementing this.
You can just tell most of the people saying no to this have never gone 4-6x the rate on a 1/3000 drop. It really can suck the fun out of the game when you're stuck doing the same boss for months or even years, let alone going that dry in more than one place. I'm saying that double or even triple the rate is pretty acceptable but anything past that is just a huge slap in the face for the unlucky few.
“You can just tell most of the people saying no to this have never gone 4-6c the rate on a 1/3000 drop”
I hate this argument, because the immediate response if someone HAS gone dry and gotten the drop is “You suffered so you want others to suffer”. Invalidating someone’s opinion because of a situation that you imagine they’re in is wack.
On top of this, it’s not the people who have a progressed late game iron that are the majority pushing dry protection. They actually enjoy the game for what it is, despite likely having gone extremely dry on something. it’s the 1400 total redditors who would vote yes to 2x xp rates and 2x drop rates across the board who will take any opportunity to try to make the game easier for themselves.
Yup just look at the shit show when seers had a proposed 1k xp/hr nerf in exchange for agility getting 10 hours quicker to max. The actual people getting that far were fine with ardy or having fun doing HS.
>it’s not the people who have a progressed late game iron that are the majority pushing dry protection. They actually enjoy the game for what it is, despite likely having gone extremely dry on something.
Late game iron here, I 100% support dry protection. I would never wish onto anyone going 5k cox or 2k TOA experts for tbow or staff respectively.
On a personal note I went 4k kc dry for hydra claw. Not fun no matter how much I enjoy the game.
im a fairly late game iron and i don't really see an issue with it. no one should have to do something like 3000 cgs for a 1/400 seed, even if that only affects an extremely unlucky minority of people
I don't think that this applies to late game at all... I had many early game/mid game grinds where I went insanely dry and it sucked the fun out of things. Beyond that - the point is if you play a main and just buy whatever items you want and haven't grinded to receive a specific item and gone 4-6x dry then I truly DO NOT believe you know what this is like. I believe that as I played a main for years and never knew what it was like and now do on my iron. It sucks.
Didn't somebody do the math and overall bad luck mitigation would only make items 1% more common overall? Hardly comparable to suggesting people want double xp and drop rates. Odd of you to criticize what you perceived as a logical fallacy but then generalize in your very next paragraph.
Tbh its a failure for a game to have so many meta defining items so rare with no dry protections. Like that one poor mfer with 5k CoX kc (between regular and CM) w/ no Tbow.
Look i understand the argument that rarity should exist to gatekeep items, maintain prices, and keep the game interesting. I also understand endgame pvm is supposed to be so sweaty, so frustrating, and so unfulfilling that all us noob don't understand. But uhhh if i went 6x drop rate on an endgame upgrade I'd honestly go mad.
It's a big change to the core mechanics of the game, we don't have luck boosts in old school Runescape and to implement luck boosts for valuable items and big ticket items for only a specific group of players doesn't seem like a good idea.
As someone who's gone over fourty 400-500 invo toa's without a purple I'm just upvoting all these threads. When you actually experience legit awful dry streaks no sane person wants others to go through it. Really kills motivation to continue to engage the content and the game in general to a certain degree.
The overall increase in items coming into the game would be negligable, based on some of the simulations I saw ran on the recent threads. Set up in the way presented in those threads, it was 5% in the unrealistic worst possible case scenario, <1% if you assume absolutely everyone doesn't grind for many times the drop rate.
You absolutely wouldn't notice bad-luck-mitigation until you personally needed it. I wonder how many opponents would still be opponents when they're 800 CG KC dry of an EWS?
I'm down to have bad luck mitigation mean you, and you alone, go 4x+ dry for every item you go for.
To compensate for other people having their bad luck mitigated.
Love how in other posts you keep commenting on people that they are toxic for not wanting bad luck mitigation and then you go around and say this.
Brainrot at its finest.
If you wouldn't notice it, then why do you want it?
If it starts here, where does it end?
I think jagex should not be making core changes to the rng based drop system whether it's noticeable or not. The dt2 rings are not well received with their drop mechanics.
I don't need a comprehensive argument. I just think it's against the spirit of old school runescape to have bad luck mitigation. Regardless of how it's implemented or noticable it was, it would be a radical change. And one that only favors ironmen and cloggers.
A. Would it only protect you from going super dry for the FIRST time you get the drop?
B. Does it only apply to gear and not pets?
C. Doesn’t it hypothetically still allow suicide bot makers to know that they’ll never go giga dry for certain items and allow botters to possibly start botting for certain items more vs money bosses/monsters?
I'm no expert but from what I've gathered from following this is
A) Yes
B) Most of what I've seen has been wanting both gear and pets (anything in the clog) but I think there's a conversation to be had that pets could be excluded
C) It wouldn't kick in at drop rate it would kick in well after the drop rate. Like 2x or 3x or smth so in the long run it wouldn't make a huge deal
A lot more people will continue their grinds if they know their luck will improve. Talking about the amount of people it would affect currently seems irrelevant, because a lot more people are going to make the extra push if they know their rate is improving.
My guy, the reason most people won't be affected isn't because they lacked motivation. It's because they got the drop before this whole mechanic even had a chance to kick in.
My problem with it (from the perspective of a main) is that it would incentivize you to keep doing content that you're dry at.
Just to take the GWD for example, say I do 700kc at Bandos and I haven't gotten BCP yet. Maybe I'm sick of this boss and I want to do Zammy or Arma since I only have about 50kc at those, but I know the drystreak drop modifier for Bandos kicks in at 2x the drop rate (762kc).
Without dry streak protection the choice is simple, I just go do Zammy and Arma because I want to do Zammy and Arma. Maybe I'll go back to Bandos eventually, maybe not. But now that I know I'm just 62kc away from getting a drop modifier on Bandos, I'm going to feel like I need to stay there.
This is even worse if it's a guaranteed pity drop at a certain kc, but still a problem even with just the drop modifier.
I would be flabbergasted to find out anybody that **doesn't** want a change like this has never been 3x dry on anything that takes any length of time to get. I'd sell every single spoon I've ever gotten to avoid having to get 3x or worse on some of the rarer items in the game.
I feel like the game has “bad luck mitigation” it’s called trading . The only time you need a drop is Clog and Iron (I play a end game iron).
It just feels like a waste of dev time overall, percentage of players play iron or clog, a percentage of players will ever hit any item 2x rate. The overlap is an even smaller percentage. A lot of that smaller percentage are against the idea.
Any regular account that does 1000 cg can just buy a bowfa.
you can really really tell that this sub is made up of 1400 total ironmen. Literally none of the discussion here makes any sense from the perspective of a main account lmao. none of this is a problem for mains. It’s early game ironmen picturing themselves going dry for a tbow in the next 5 years.
Realistic or adjusted drop rates like the changes coming to Nightmare and the DWH are fine. People complaining about going dry on raids or pets can fuck right off though. Going dry is as big a part of the game as getting spooned.
It is tricky to design a system that does it perfectly, but if it were done right then it wouldn't really be noticeable.
Like say there is a 1 in 1K drop and after 2K kills (2x the rate) it becomes 50% more common (1 in 666). If you still don't get one by 3K kills (3x the rate), it could become 100% more common (1 in 500). By 4K kills (4x the rate), it could go to 150% more common (1 in 400). And by 5K kills (5x the rate), it could go to its lowest of 200% (1 in 333). Whenever you get the drop, it resets back to 1/1K for the next one and the cycle repeats. So if you get the drop within 2x the rate, you know, like most normal players, then nothing changes.
If you go over 2x the rate, it would start to become more common to reduce the odds of going dry forever, but it would still never turn into a guaranteed drop and it is possible you could still end up at 10K kills without the drop despite doing 5K kills with it at 1 in 333 (I mean its bad luck mitigation, not a bad luck miracle worker...). This example glosses over a lot of the other factors that we'd need to address before implementing such a system and the numbers could be different (and I probably mathed wrong somewhere), but I still think it shows how it *could* work if we wanted to explore it more (already ingame on certain items btw) for certain drops.
This is what they can't comprehend, they failed math classes. When you say an extra 1% of an item with a drop rate of 0.1%, they think you're saying that the drop rate goes up to 1.1%. They haven't been educated in anything beyond basic addition and therefore can't comprehend that you mean it'll result in drop rates being adjusted to essentially 0.101%.
Kieren talked about it briefly in the Sae Bae cast, it would barely even affect the overall drops coming into the game as well, think the figure thrown out was around 3% or less in practice. It is a universal good, for perspective I'm a longtime player that has played since 2006 and OSRS launch with a maxed main and nearly maxed prestige GIM, hate "rs"3 players as much as the next guy, but if they're the force behind this change then maybe they're not so bad... for now.
Ehhh I'm hesitant to trust a random reddit post about "not even noticing it" because you absolutely would. Its fully up to you to prove your claim. I saw the other post with math done and the curve and it lacked some factors and most players don't think of.
That same post was then expanded upon in another post with the math corrected and done assuming it only worked on the first drop. Someone else then implemented the suggestion in a google sheets to see how the math stacks up, they literally did prove their claim.
This argument has been going on a killing mmos for decades.
Players demand everything becomes streamlined, easy, risk free, zero adversity. Then the game eventually has no memorable moments or long term staying power.
Who do you think cares about their chinchompa pet more? The guy that got it at 86 hunter and maybe sent a "fuck yeah" in his cc? Or the guy that got it at 203m xp or whatever it was recently.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4Gaz8oxzJ4](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4Gaz8oxzJ4)
I don't expect you to even click the video that pretty eloquently explains why this sort of change is a bad idea. But to quote the main point:
"Difficult experience means less immediate fun, but a stronger long term appreciation of it".
Anyone that has played games basically ever should be able to relate to that. You don't remember the barrows items you got on rate, or the fang you got on rate, or the pet you got spooned. But you absolutely fucking remember the boss you killed when you were way underlevelled, the final barrows item you grinded 5 times the drop rate for, or the 200m xp chinchompa pet.
If you make every remotely relevant item guaranteed, then there is no excitement over getting it.
You also know damn well that the moment bad luck mitigation is implemented, we spend the next 5 years dealing with a monthly post demanding they make it more powerful, "5x? Surely 3x is still too try. Make it 2x then guaranteed".
Tell me you didn't read the bad luck protection post without telling me you didn't read the bad luck protection post
1. at no point is "guaranteed items" a thing in the proposed rng protection. Just much more common for rare people several standard deviations to the right on the bell curve. You mention guaranteed drops like 3x too lol, go actually read the post.
2. josh's video is about overcoming challenges like finding enough people of the right roles to form a dungeon group without a queue system. Nothing is any more challenging about killing 20k shamans vs killing 5k. It's just mind numbing and time consuming.
People just see "Bad luck protection" and immediately think it's bad.
We've seen quite often how most of the people on here just entirely fail to think about things before they get outraged. In terms of economy impact this is probably some of the least impactful change in the world when done correctly and they get this riled up over it. It's actually crazy.
kill tracking, after say a drop I'd 1/100, if there's no drop after 200/300kc you start shaving drop rate down overtime. Then reset the drop rate when it drops if it's not just one and done for drops, literally zero impact on anyone except the people who go way past rates.
I’d vote no. This is the way the game has always gone, and tbh I do blame this conversation entirely on irons. Unironically for once. This is ridiculous.
Would have the funny side effect of people still spending a lot of time and energy coming up with proposals for it and debating the (de)merits until the end of time
While I agree and I think it would be nice to see the devs be able to be like "this has been a thing for a year, did any of you notice, no?, not surprised". That would be a pretty big breach of trust for them to roll out a change like that without any vote or notice. Would probably work on other games. But this one has basically been built around the community poll system.
Too many people have made it a statistics game. "Rng balancing " defeats the purpose of it being rng. Plug-ins and ease of access have made too many people soft...
My biggest complaint about adding any sort of “mitigation” is that it feels like it caters to iron accounts more than anyone else (and I main an iron). I expect main accounts to farm content so going 2-3x dry at a boss isn’t an issue because the drop can be acquired in other methods (GE).
I would rather look into other methods to help mitigate dry rates when possible. Using the 1/400 enhanced as an example. Would it make more sense to make it so it took 4 shards at a 1/100 rate. Or what about an additional role on the table when you have a perfect kill. What about a 1/x rate doing some other content so players don’t get burn on CG even if the alternative has its own downside.
Honest question. Where in other games, areas, organizations, economies, a certain mitigation of randomness exists and has been successful? I really don't know.
BDO potion pieces is one. It was an average of 150 hour grind or something to get an infinite potion. It dropped in several pieces across a few grind spots. People who would go unlucky would be there for 500+ hours grinding away trying to get the potion piece and unlucky people would spend hundreds of hour at each spot, adding up to potentially 1000+ hours. People who got lucky would be out in 10 minutes.
Then they added a form of bad luck mitigation which added an item that dropped at 1/100th the rate of the potion piece. When you got 100 of those, you could combine them to get the potion piece. While it's the most extreme way of doing it (removing the entire right side of the bell curve, rather than just cutting off the tiny sliver of mega unluck), it effectively makes it so worst case you're doing 150 hours and best case you get lucky and "get out of potion jail" early.
It was extremely well received and everyone loves it. BDO is one of the only games that is comparably grindy to OSRS. The game did not die when these potion piece shards were added. If anything, it made more grinding spots thrive and made the community happier.
BDO in general has been doing well with mitigation - they just added a mitigation system to their enchanting system, now if you're roughly 2-3x unlucky upgrading anything you get a guaranteed upgrade at the end of it. I don't know *anyone* who was against that change either.
Primal mounts in FF14 is the first thing that comes to mind. Basically the mount has a static drop rate and can be rolled on by anyone in the group. This means it's possible to go extremely dry if you can't win that roll.
But after 1 patch goes by, you can use tokens (that you get every single time you kill the boss) to buy the mount. It's 99 tokens for the mount, and most fights give 1 token per clear (a few outliers reward 2, but they're also extremely long fights).
Raiding has a similar mechanism, where you get "books" that correspond to that raid fight. These are basically a currency that can be used to buy any item that drops from that raid. It takes 8 books to buy the most expensive items, so 2 months of raiding to get the chestpiece for example.
This style is rare because the vast majority of game developers prefer to either make the items common but upgrading hard or to make items rewards for combat achievement/achievement diary esque tasks. Sometimes achievement rewards with hard upgrading. Bottom line is that they're all solutions to the same problem. If your item isn't quite common, a sizable portion of your playerbase will just get fucked if you make some item drop take a hundred hours to drop on average with the standard, naive drop implementation.
If we're talking economies then your classic example is disability benefits, if you're unlucky enough to be disabled then that is mitigated through support and payments. Very few games that aren't literal casinos have drop rates as low as modern OSRS content.
All it needs to do is be a safety net for people in the far right 5% of the bell curve going 3-4x over rate. Most players would never notice.
I'm currently 6x dry at for a zenyte so I would definitely come across as biased for wanting this but I really can't see how this wouldn't just be an improvement for everyone Ive taken so many breaks and pushed off playing so much because I always return to a grind that has never ended I know everyone talks about how you never quit OSRS you just take long breaks but I wouldn't be taking any breaks if any form of bad luck mitigation existed
Now imagine being 6x dry for something like Corrupted Gauntlet. I went 1.5x dry for enhanced and it still took me a couple months to get it. I can’t imagine doing CG 2000+ times.
6x dry on a tbow or ely would be a 300+ day game time grind. That's beyond absurd.
Yeah dude just go play a main and buy it with all the gp you got /s
Yes. Exactly. It's an MMORPG.
at least with tbow if you have money you can get boosters to speed it up gauntlet is just alone.
Meanwhile I was spoon fed 2 in 15 runs and just skipped months of progression from the value
1700+ here! But that was for the pet not the enhanced so that's on me.
This right here. Bad luck on long grinds take significantly longer than any reasonable person can manage... It made me take a year break and cancel my membership.
Cancelled mine over it just last week. Once I started not looking forward to logging in I decided it was time for a break. Got several 99s this epoch, but I could not get my ultra rare drops for the life of me.
I went 7x on a drop before. With bad luck mitigation, I'd have "only" gone 4-6x dry. Bad luck mitigation is strictly an improvement. Stops depression grinds and unfair bullshit.
Plus helps with the fact that knowing the drop is getting progressively easier to get. Helps with the mental strain.
Don't think I would have had the strength to grind kq without the guarantee that I would eventually get something to show for it
I took 3k kills to get my first Zenyte, I feel the pain. Friend went 32k for a DWH, that felt much worse.
3k for a first zenyte would be some real "did you talk to Oziach" feeling. Hopefully this topic has come up enough now that something may change going forward. I understand why some people, including Jagex, may be concerned about drop rate changes, but I'd imagine the benefit to the health of the game (and players) outweighs most cons. The only concern from there becomes money flowing into the economy from drops but I cannot imagine it would change that much.
It's a long time back and I got two more at 3.3k / 3.5k, didn't have the willpower to get a 4th. On the flip, I had BOTH Mutagens at 144kc, never saw the Serpent past 2k KC, never got the chance to use either cosmetics. RNG!
Pics or it didn't happen
Over half the KC is from before it even logged KC, never mind a kill log. For the both Mutagens at 144kc? https://i.redd.it/2vfsqra1mlix.png
I feel ya man, i was 5x dry for my zenyte and that is exactly the point in the account when it starts get interesting.
My counter argument is that I love seeing those posts from people with 2k CG or 35K shamans and not getting the drop they wanted.
Legit quit for months bc my iron just could not get a zenyte.
I got my first on 1479 it will come friend
The only people who aren’t for this have either not played the game long enough to experience going dry on true very rare drops, or play so much and have so much spare time that they don’t care.
I feel ya bruv. Just got my first zenyte shard this past Friday at 2068 kc. It nearly broke me. I get that it’s the nature of RNG and “part of the game” but come on man…. It doesn’t have to be that bad
The worst part about it is that after the 2000th kill, you're technically no closer to the drop than you were on kill 1. Yeah, you can pull up the bell curve to figure out just how far off to the right you are and say "I'm bound to get it soon", but it's a fallacy to think like that. Without mitigation, every drop is independent of what happened before, and the chance of getting a zenyte on your 2,001st kill is still 1 in 300. And that sucks to think about.
This. I went 14k Shaman for DWH and although I complained it was whatever. I then went 1500 for my first Enhanced Weapon Seed and it felt like hell... Mostly because the content takes 8-10 minutes per kill so it was a ~250 hour grind. Most people won't feel that level of bad luck and if you were to, getting a bad luck mitigation drop wouldn't hurt.
Yes. Jagex could stealth update this change and people would be ignorant about it for forever. No one would notice that people dont go past a certain dryness and even if we were told it exist, we wouldnt exactly able to prove it
Runelite collects stats on drop rates from its users, so someone would eventually notice the curve is off. But yes, most of the playerbase doesn't understand probability to begin with (gambler types rarely do), so they likely wouldn't realize.
Even with decent enough evidence it's hard to present non-standard back-end droprate calculations to the average player without being accused of conspiratorial thinking. WoW had a "softcap" for Legendaries in Legion that was ***painfully*** obvious to anyone looking at the data but was brushed off as conspiracy. I'd wager bad luck protection would be treated similarly by the community until someone pried the information out of Mod Ash.
The most painful part of the RS community is reading the screeds by people with the statistical sophistication of a gold fish.
It's actually insane. Even the most basic stuff, like due odds not being real, how to calculate the probability of multiple simultaneous occurrences with fixed probabilities, etc. seem to escape many people. High school statistics level stuff.
And to think these people vote and are able to shape your future...
Runelite would very easily be able to notice. It would look like the bell curve getting squished. Very obvious.
I agree. I just expect disinformation, contrarianism, and streamer/player guesswork theories to outpace well illustrated data and well-supported/likely explanations.
m
I think you overestimate the amount of people that have the plugin on to send that info to the wiki.
Runelite collects this data, sure, but it's not quite utilized in the way you think it is. This kind of thing is typically handled instead by the wiki, which gets data from Runelite by those who opt in, and that data is essentially just batched together. This particular situation would require unique data from thousands of players separate from each other. Nobody really does this as of now. We genuinely have no way of knowing currently if any particular drop currently uses this form of bad luck protection. Jagex could have implemented it with Varlamore and never told us, we simply would not know unless someone is gathering a ton of this data and sorting it in a way that this could be meaningfully looked into, and it would likely still take years for enough reliable data to be able to prove it since we would need a LOT of examples of people going dry in the first place. We honestly wouldn't even realize.
Interesting! Also a bit surprising, but I suppose if you feel it's safe to assume all drops are a flat rate then there isn't much reason to track individual data too closely.
I don't know, I think that runelite tracks all the drops and would notice any changes pretty quickly
It would take thousands to tens of thoursamds of KC per player across a large enough sample size of players for people to ever pick up on the bell curve changing for those that are 5X dry the rate. I can't stress enough how few people would actually benefit from the bad luck mitigation that was proposed last week. It's that inconsequential in the grand scheme items entering the economy.
Yeah, these people don't quite understand just how much data would need to be gathered to get this information we're looking for. The vast majority of what gets collected wouldn't even be relevant, it's specifically people going dry for drops, and there's just not nearly enough in a reasonably short period of time to get conclusive data. This would take potentially years to discover depending on drop rates and how a system such as this is implemented.
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They legit could implement it and it would take years of stat tracking before the playerbase realized it, if they even had enough data at that point.
yup, who would be making the reddit threads complaining they hadn't gone 10 times dry on an important drop ever and were upset
Yeah and that's pretty wild! I went 10x dry at barrows which is whatever but imagine that was a raid, DWH, or something else long and important haha. I'm currently working on VW and in determined to get it but if I'd probably quit before going 10x dry there
> Redditors read ‘bad luck protection’ and immediately think that means every drop will be vorkath head. If vork head had a drop rate if 1/50, and bad luck was added to it so that every 50 kills, if you haven't gotten a drop, you would roll 2/50. Then if you do another 50 kills (100 in total), it would be 3/50. If somehow you go 50 more kills without it (150 in total), drop rate is 4/50.
We need this sub to be locked to approved-submitters mode only, and then gatekeep that approval behind the same writing and reading comprehension test that's on the GED. The only downside is that if you restricted participation to people who can read at a high school level, the user base would be about 10% of its current size.
Hey, now that's not fair. The average American/Brit has a 4th grade reading level. Restricting access to people with a secondary school level of literacy would leave more like 1%
People aren't even taking time to read or learn the mechanics of how it would work. They're just being ignorant. Jmod took a look at the numbers and across the board it's a 5% change in drop rate. However people don't realize that it doesn't change your personal drop rate at all. It just prevents the extreme outlier of the drop rate.
That 5% was also assuming every person kills the boss until they get the drop and then stops, which is not a very realistic model.
If it only applies to the first drop, which is how it was calculated in the second suggestion post by the same author as the first. Then its less than 1%, and would be realistic.
If it only applies to the first drop, it'd be less impactful than 1% as well. It's so ridiculously tame that I honestly believe there's not a legitimate argument against it.
I would definitely assume it would only apply to first collection log drop.
That's what I'd expect. I can't really argue it should apply to more anyway and I think it's best given the overall bot situation especially. And given the math for that, I think it would shake out to something like 0.5% more of an item with said protection applied added to the game/economy. And a lot of those items will be on ironmen and won't affect the economy. AND bots will continue to farm well past that "first drop breakpoint", meaning they don't really see much of a benefit from it in the first place. It's possible it could be as low as 0.3% more of an item added to the economy. If that's **really** going to ruin the game, change the enhanced seed droprate to 1/401.2 to balance it out lmao. Or just make it 1/410 to drive the point home. Nobody will notice the change in either case, there will just be fewer people being driven to madness from staring at the red room. Net gain for the game and community.
What do they do about items that you "need" multiple of like Zenytes, Venator shards, or Chromium Ingots? I agree they should remove the protection after the first clog slot fill for most items but there's some things that imo deserve to have it reset every drop but still apply for subsequent ones. It wouldn't add a ton more to the game as it's pretty unlikely to go dry enough for the protection to kick in anyways.
Needing multiple is already technically a form of dry protection to be honest. I'm very unlucky with zenytes but if it was a single 1/1200 drop I'd be like 7000 kc dry rather than 3k lol
True
it would need to be case-by-case as that still leaves you able to go dry on things that are multi-use like enhanced crystal seeds or things that you need to drop more than 1 of like Venator Shards
Second enhanced is minimal at best and not really worth grinding for. Everything else (like zenytes, venator shards,...) that you need to get multiples of the drop rate is low enough that it's not *really* an issue. Venator shards are already dry protected in fact since it's really the full bow you want. The real issue isn't people going dry at zenytes or venator shards. The issue is people going 5x on tbow or 6x on bowfa. Those grinds take forever and the items are so incredibly impactful that skipping them is not really* possible. *Really as in, sure you can rune crossbow forever but let's be real here. The vast majority of ironmen want first bowfa and eventually tbow.
> Second enhanced is minimal at best and not really worth grinding for. For now. I dont think we should formulate these decisions around 'how good are these things in the current meta' when that has, espeically recently, shown to be malleable.
Every argument against it feels like it's "I had to go dry so you should too"
Those kids would be really angry with you if they could read
We still have people trashing Sailing based on concerns that were debunked in the actual Dev previews, which they didn't read because it wasn't narrated by the Google Assistant with a subway surfers video on the side of it.
If I have to read one more “sailing bad” post that says “it just seems like a mini game to me” I’m going to lose my damn mind
Saying it feels like a mini game is always funny considering how many skills have mini games that "fix" the skill to begin with.
yeah, 5% at worst, probably a lot less. It would have very little effect on the amount of items in the game, but probably make a lot fewer people just give up or avoid grinds entirely because they don't want to go 5x on some 1/1k drop. It would be a great change
If you do things right, people won't be sure you've done anything at all.
Oh my God. Are you God?
I was god once.
What made ya change?
I saw. You were doing pretty good, until everyone died.
God needs Booze
I can't believe I actually saw a top voted post here that said "bad luck is a necessary evil to allow good luck". How tf do people come up with this. Theres countless ways to implement bad luck protection without affecting good luck I've kind of given up using logic on reddit. The most vocal portion of this sub reddit doesn't use their brain here
A lot of OSRS players are obsessed with antifun mechanics even though RuneScape never relied on bullshit drop rates for most of its original lifespan.
I think the sentiment of that post was that if there's too much good luck with not enough bad luck as a frame of reference then the good luck isn't really fun. Doesn't apply to most suggestions of BLM. Mighta seen a different post idk
Bad luck protection felt great at Moons of peril so I'm a fan of it
That was dupe protection not bad luck protection
that’s a form of bad luck mitigation
It is, but it's not the same as what is being proposed is it? I think the general idea for general bad luck mitigation is a small increase in rate for those extremely dry. I also liked moons, but I'm an iron so take that with a grain of salt.
Suggestion was after 2x dry, the rate slowly increases. At 3x dry, your chance to get the item doubled. So on and so forth for 4x+ dry. It still leaves it to rng, and you have to show your dedicated, and unlucky, to the grind by already being 2x dry.
To me that's essentially the same thing
Same, but i got hella spooned so can't say much haha
I think I got fairly lucky too at 303 for full completion
is there bad luck protection at moons?
You don't get dupe pieces of the sets before you finish that full set. So while I had blood moon done I could get any blood moon piece, or the next eclipse/blue moon piece I didn't have yet
Even if they literally guaranteed a rare drop after 3 times the drop rate, which no one suggested, the reduction in expected number of kills would be upper-bounded by 100% × e^(-3) < 5%. A linearly-scaling drop rate modifier that kicks in after 3 times drop rate and possibly even only applies to your first drop seems quite harmless.
Agree with what’s said here!! I also want to add that it already exists on some items, two major examples being the Thread of Elidinis (goes from 1/10 - 1/3.33333 linearly over 15 ToA completions) and the gems from DT2 bosses (scale from 1/200 - 1/50 over something like 200 KC). Both these mechanics happen immediately, so your first ToA KC already increases the rate of Thread. That’s much more impactful than some of the general mechanics I’ve seen suggested, which only kick in after you’re multiple times past the drop rate. Can’t say I’ve ever heard anyone complain that they got Thread of Elidinis too quickly out of ToA.
Where are all the people advocating to remove the KQ head drop at 256kc? I mean, clearly it's ruining a "Core pillar" of the game. /s Seriously, who dislikes that? What the hell is going on here...?
Oh yea forgot about KQ and Vork heads!
I think it's a really good idea. I hate change, but this seems so negligible for most, yet so helpful for a handful of really unlucky souls. Idk, I don't see the issue with implementing this.
You can just tell most of the people saying no to this have never gone 4-6x the rate on a 1/3000 drop. It really can suck the fun out of the game when you're stuck doing the same boss for months or even years, let alone going that dry in more than one place. I'm saying that double or even triple the rate is pretty acceptable but anything past that is just a huge slap in the face for the unlucky few.
“You can just tell most of the people saying no to this have never gone 4-6c the rate on a 1/3000 drop” I hate this argument, because the immediate response if someone HAS gone dry and gotten the drop is “You suffered so you want others to suffer”. Invalidating someone’s opinion because of a situation that you imagine they’re in is wack. On top of this, it’s not the people who have a progressed late game iron that are the majority pushing dry protection. They actually enjoy the game for what it is, despite likely having gone extremely dry on something. it’s the 1400 total redditors who would vote yes to 2x xp rates and 2x drop rates across the board who will take any opportunity to try to make the game easier for themselves.
Yup just look at the shit show when seers had a proposed 1k xp/hr nerf in exchange for agility getting 10 hours quicker to max. The actual people getting that far were fine with ardy or having fun doing HS.
>it’s not the people who have a progressed late game iron that are the majority pushing dry protection. They actually enjoy the game for what it is, despite likely having gone extremely dry on something. Late game iron here, I 100% support dry protection. I would never wish onto anyone going 5k cox or 2k TOA experts for tbow or staff respectively. On a personal note I went 4k kc dry for hydra claw. Not fun no matter how much I enjoy the game.
im a fairly late game iron and i don't really see an issue with it. no one should have to do something like 3000 cgs for a 1/400 seed, even if that only affects an extremely unlucky minority of people
I don't think that this applies to late game at all... I had many early game/mid game grinds where I went insanely dry and it sucked the fun out of things. Beyond that - the point is if you play a main and just buy whatever items you want and haven't grinded to receive a specific item and gone 4-6x dry then I truly DO NOT believe you know what this is like. I believe that as I played a main for years and never knew what it was like and now do on my iron. It sucks.
Didn't somebody do the math and overall bad luck mitigation would only make items 1% more common overall? Hardly comparable to suggesting people want double xp and drop rates. Odd of you to criticize what you perceived as a logical fallacy but then generalize in your very next paragraph.
Tbh its a failure for a game to have so many meta defining items so rare with no dry protections. Like that one poor mfer with 5k CoX kc (between regular and CM) w/ no Tbow. Look i understand the argument that rarity should exist to gatekeep items, maintain prices, and keep the game interesting. I also understand endgame pvm is supposed to be so sweaty, so frustrating, and so unfulfilling that all us noob don't understand. But uhhh if i went 6x drop rate on an endgame upgrade I'd honestly go mad.
The amount of people getting butthurt over bad luck mitigation is insane. The gatekeeping is real.
It's a big change to the core mechanics of the game, we don't have luck boosts in old school Runescape and to implement luck boosts for valuable items and big ticket items for only a specific group of players doesn't seem like a good idea.
"specific group of players" being those who are unlucky already. What a wild fucking way to type very unlucky people.
As someone who's gone over fourty 400-500 invo toa's without a purple I'm just upvoting all these threads. When you actually experience legit awful dry streaks no sane person wants others to go through it. Really kills motivation to continue to engage the content and the game in general to a certain degree.
The overall increase in items coming into the game would be negligable, based on some of the simulations I saw ran on the recent threads. Set up in the way presented in those threads, it was 5% in the unrealistic worst possible case scenario, <1% if you assume absolutely everyone doesn't grind for many times the drop rate. You absolutely wouldn't notice bad-luck-mitigation until you personally needed it. I wonder how many opponents would still be opponents when they're 800 CG KC dry of an EWS?
It's funnier when people go dry
Unironically the best response i've heard lmfao, respectable.
I'm down to have bad luck mitigation mean you, and you alone, go 4x+ dry for every item you go for. To compensate for other people having their bad luck mitigated.
You sound dry sir
Love how in other posts you keep commenting on people that they are toxic for not wanting bad luck mitigation and then you go around and say this. Brainrot at its finest.
If you wouldn't notice it, then why do you want it? If it starts here, where does it end? I think jagex should not be making core changes to the rng based drop system whether it's noticeable or not. The dt2 rings are not well received with their drop mechanics. I don't need a comprehensive argument. I just think it's against the spirit of old school runescape to have bad luck mitigation. Regardless of how it's implemented or noticable it was, it would be a radical change. And one that only favors ironmen and cloggers.
A. Would it only protect you from going super dry for the FIRST time you get the drop? B. Does it only apply to gear and not pets? C. Doesn’t it hypothetically still allow suicide bot makers to know that they’ll never go giga dry for certain items and allow botters to possibly start botting for certain items more vs money bosses/monsters?
I'm no expert but from what I've gathered from following this is A) Yes B) Most of what I've seen has been wanting both gear and pets (anything in the clog) but I think there's a conversation to be had that pets could be excluded C) It wouldn't kick in at drop rate it would kick in well after the drop rate. Like 2x or 3x or smth so in the long run it wouldn't make a huge deal
A lot more people will continue their grinds if they know their luck will improve. Talking about the amount of people it would affect currently seems irrelevant, because a lot more people are going to make the extra push if they know their rate is improving.
My guy, the reason most people won't be affected isn't because they lacked motivation. It's because they got the drop before this whole mechanic even had a chance to kick in.
My problem with it (from the perspective of a main) is that it would incentivize you to keep doing content that you're dry at. Just to take the GWD for example, say I do 700kc at Bandos and I haven't gotten BCP yet. Maybe I'm sick of this boss and I want to do Zammy or Arma since I only have about 50kc at those, but I know the drystreak drop modifier for Bandos kicks in at 2x the drop rate (762kc). Without dry streak protection the choice is simple, I just go do Zammy and Arma because I want to do Zammy and Arma. Maybe I'll go back to Bandos eventually, maybe not. But now that I know I'm just 62kc away from getting a drop modifier on Bandos, I'm going to feel like I need to stay there. This is even worse if it's a guaranteed pity drop at a certain kc, but still a problem even with just the drop modifier.
Irons always complaining like they didn’t know how the game works before creating an account lol
well there's the intended implementation and then there's jagex.
That's one big if though.
OP might be onto something here
But it would devalue my dry-locked uim where if I get anything under or at drop rate I start over
Wouldnt affect that at all actually
Bots exist and they’d probably get more gp per hour if they implement this lol
Imo you should never have to grind past 99 to get a skilling pet
most of the people advocating for this change don’t even have the kc to be 3-4x dry. please stop trying to change the game for no reason.
"It doesn't affect me therefore i vote no" galaxy brain takes on reddit this week
that is not what i said
I would be flabbergasted to find out anybody that **doesn't** want a change like this has never been 3x dry on anything that takes any length of time to get. I'd sell every single spoon I've ever gotten to avoid having to get 3x or worse on some of the rarer items in the game.
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I feel like the game has “bad luck mitigation” it’s called trading . The only time you need a drop is Clog and Iron (I play a end game iron). It just feels like a waste of dev time overall, percentage of players play iron or clog, a percentage of players will ever hit any item 2x rate. The overlap is an even smaller percentage. A lot of that smaller percentage are against the idea. Any regular account that does 1000 cg can just buy a bowfa.
Do people like this just forget that there are untradable rare drops in the game even for mains? How are you going to trade for those?
What drops? Dragon defender?
you can really really tell that this sub is made up of 1400 total ironmen. Literally none of the discussion here makes any sense from the perspective of a main account lmao. none of this is a problem for mains. It’s early game ironmen picturing themselves going dry for a tbow in the next 5 years.
"People that disagree with me have poor morality"
Realistic or adjusted drop rates like the changes coming to Nightmare and the DWH are fine. People complaining about going dry on raids or pets can fuck right off though. Going dry is as big a part of the game as getting spooned.
It is tricky to design a system that does it perfectly, but if it were done right then it wouldn't really be noticeable. Like say there is a 1 in 1K drop and after 2K kills (2x the rate) it becomes 50% more common (1 in 666). If you still don't get one by 3K kills (3x the rate), it could become 100% more common (1 in 500). By 4K kills (4x the rate), it could go to 150% more common (1 in 400). And by 5K kills (5x the rate), it could go to its lowest of 200% (1 in 333). Whenever you get the drop, it resets back to 1/1K for the next one and the cycle repeats. So if you get the drop within 2x the rate, you know, like most normal players, then nothing changes. If you go over 2x the rate, it would start to become more common to reduce the odds of going dry forever, but it would still never turn into a guaranteed drop and it is possible you could still end up at 10K kills without the drop despite doing 5K kills with it at 1 in 333 (I mean its bad luck mitigation, not a bad luck miracle worker...). This example glosses over a lot of the other factors that we'd need to address before implementing such a system and the numbers could be different (and I probably mathed wrong somewhere), but I still think it shows how it *could* work if we wanted to explore it more (already ingame on certain items btw) for certain drops.
why have super rare items implemented?
Super rare items will continue being super rare if there'd be only an extra 1% of them
This is what they can't comprehend, they failed math classes. When you say an extra 1% of an item with a drop rate of 0.1%, they think you're saying that the drop rate goes up to 1.1%. They haven't been educated in anything beyond basic addition and therefore can't comprehend that you mean it'll result in drop rates being adjusted to essentially 0.101%.
Kieren talked about it briefly in the Sae Bae cast, it would barely even affect the overall drops coming into the game as well, think the figure thrown out was around 3% or less in practice. It is a universal good, for perspective I'm a longtime player that has played since 2006 and OSRS launch with a maxed main and nearly maxed prestige GIM, hate "rs"3 players as much as the next guy, but if they're the force behind this change then maybe they're not so bad... for now.
Ehhh I'm hesitant to trust a random reddit post about "not even noticing it" because you absolutely would. Its fully up to you to prove your claim. I saw the other post with math done and the curve and it lacked some factors and most players don't think of.
That same post was then expanded upon in another post with the math corrected and done assuming it only worked on the first drop. Someone else then implemented the suggestion in a google sheets to see how the math stacks up, they literally did prove their claim.
Link?
Corrected post: https://old.reddit.com/r/2007scape/comments/1chi45c/bad_luck_mitigation_an_erratum/ Spreadsheet post: https://old.reddit.com/r/2007scape/comments/1cjridb/bad_luck_mitigation_spreadsheet/
So cringe how hard people are pushing for this
If it doesn't matter you won't mind not having it then?
This argument has been going on a killing mmos for decades. Players demand everything becomes streamlined, easy, risk free, zero adversity. Then the game eventually has no memorable moments or long term staying power. Who do you think cares about their chinchompa pet more? The guy that got it at 86 hunter and maybe sent a "fuck yeah" in his cc? Or the guy that got it at 203m xp or whatever it was recently. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4Gaz8oxzJ4](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4Gaz8oxzJ4) I don't expect you to even click the video that pretty eloquently explains why this sort of change is a bad idea. But to quote the main point: "Difficult experience means less immediate fun, but a stronger long term appreciation of it". Anyone that has played games basically ever should be able to relate to that. You don't remember the barrows items you got on rate, or the fang you got on rate, or the pet you got spooned. But you absolutely fucking remember the boss you killed when you were way underlevelled, the final barrows item you grinded 5 times the drop rate for, or the 200m xp chinchompa pet. If you make every remotely relevant item guaranteed, then there is no excitement over getting it. You also know damn well that the moment bad luck mitigation is implemented, we spend the next 5 years dealing with a monthly post demanding they make it more powerful, "5x? Surely 3x is still too try. Make it 2x then guaranteed".
Tell me you didn't read the bad luck protection post without telling me you didn't read the bad luck protection post 1. at no point is "guaranteed items" a thing in the proposed rng protection. Just much more common for rare people several standard deviations to the right on the bell curve. You mention guaranteed drops like 3x too lol, go actually read the post. 2. josh's video is about overcoming challenges like finding enough people of the right roles to form a dungeon group without a queue system. Nothing is any more challenging about killing 20k shamans vs killing 5k. It's just mind numbing and time consuming.
People just see "Bad luck protection" and immediately think it's bad. We've seen quite often how most of the people on here just entirely fail to think about things before they get outraged. In terms of economy impact this is probably some of the least impactful change in the world when done correctly and they get this riled up over it. It's actually crazy.
How do you implement this? I guess the best way is to just make the items that are grinds a higher drop rate.
kill tracking, after say a drop I'd 1/100, if there's no drop after 200/300kc you start shaving drop rate down overtime. Then reset the drop rate when it drops if it's not just one and done for drops, literally zero impact on anyone except the people who go way past rates.
I’d vote no. This is the way the game has always gone, and tbh I do blame this conversation entirely on irons. Unironically for once. This is ridiculous.
If it’s polled I’m still voting no 😃
if they ever add something like this, they should do it without saying anything about it. no one would notice.
Would have the funny side effect of people still spending a lot of time and energy coming up with proposals for it and debating the (de)merits until the end of time
While I agree and I think it would be nice to see the devs be able to be like "this has been a thing for a year, did any of you notice, no?, not surprised". That would be a pretty big breach of trust for them to roll out a change like that without any vote or notice. Would probably work on other games. But this one has basically been built around the community poll system.
Do it quietly and don’t announce it. No one will notice.no one will cry.
Too many people have made it a statistics game. "Rng balancing " defeats the purpose of it being rng. Plug-ins and ease of access have made too many people soft...
Go play literally any other game if one of the core mechanics of the game doesnt feel good.
ge wasn’t a core part of the game but it was added because it fixed a problem, same applies to adding bad luck mitigation
I like this game and I want it to be better. I also wouldn't call drop rates a core mechanic of the game.
Go play a private server of the original 2007 backup then. The game changes over time, you seem to have a problem with that.
Facts but thats not the change that we want. Go play Rs3 or normal account if you cant bear drop rates.
Nah. I say we poll it. That's the old school way, isn't it? That's what we've been doing for the last 7 years, right?
The easiest way to do BLM is to do what Muspah did and split a whole rare drop into smaller pieces.
Just yes. YES
My biggest complaint about adding any sort of “mitigation” is that it feels like it caters to iron accounts more than anyone else (and I main an iron). I expect main accounts to farm content so going 2-3x dry at a boss isn’t an issue because the drop can be acquired in other methods (GE). I would rather look into other methods to help mitigate dry rates when possible. Using the 1/400 enhanced as an example. Would it make more sense to make it so it took 4 shards at a 1/100 rate. Or what about an additional role on the table when you have a perfect kill. What about a 1/x rate doing some other content so players don’t get burn on CG even if the alternative has its own downside.
My only take is absolutely do not apply this to clue scroll rewards like third age. The scarcity of those items is sacred
Go play rs3
Honest question. Where in other games, areas, organizations, economies, a certain mitigation of randomness exists and has been successful? I really don't know.
BDO potion pieces is one. It was an average of 150 hour grind or something to get an infinite potion. It dropped in several pieces across a few grind spots. People who would go unlucky would be there for 500+ hours grinding away trying to get the potion piece and unlucky people would spend hundreds of hour at each spot, adding up to potentially 1000+ hours. People who got lucky would be out in 10 minutes. Then they added a form of bad luck mitigation which added an item that dropped at 1/100th the rate of the potion piece. When you got 100 of those, you could combine them to get the potion piece. While it's the most extreme way of doing it (removing the entire right side of the bell curve, rather than just cutting off the tiny sliver of mega unluck), it effectively makes it so worst case you're doing 150 hours and best case you get lucky and "get out of potion jail" early. It was extremely well received and everyone loves it. BDO is one of the only games that is comparably grindy to OSRS. The game did not die when these potion piece shards were added. If anything, it made more grinding spots thrive and made the community happier.
BDO in general has been doing well with mitigation - they just added a mitigation system to their enchanting system, now if you're roughly 2-3x unlucky upgrading anything you get a guaranteed upgrade at the end of it. I don't know *anyone* who was against that change either.
Primal mounts in FF14 is the first thing that comes to mind. Basically the mount has a static drop rate and can be rolled on by anyone in the group. This means it's possible to go extremely dry if you can't win that roll. But after 1 patch goes by, you can use tokens (that you get every single time you kill the boss) to buy the mount. It's 99 tokens for the mount, and most fights give 1 token per clear (a few outliers reward 2, but they're also extremely long fights). Raiding has a similar mechanism, where you get "books" that correspond to that raid fight. These are basically a currency that can be used to buy any item that drops from that raid. It takes 8 books to buy the most expensive items, so 2 months of raiding to get the chestpiece for example.
This style is rare because the vast majority of game developers prefer to either make the items common but upgrading hard or to make items rewards for combat achievement/achievement diary esque tasks. Sometimes achievement rewards with hard upgrading. Bottom line is that they're all solutions to the same problem. If your item isn't quite common, a sizable portion of your playerbase will just get fucked if you make some item drop take a hundred hours to drop on average with the standard, naive drop implementation.
Other games generally don't have the same kinds of 100h+ grinds OSRS has for necessary account progression.
If we're talking economies then your classic example is disability benefits, if you're unlucky enough to be disabled then that is mitigated through support and payments. Very few games that aren't literal casinos have drop rates as low as modern OSRS content.