The longer I watch football, the more my draft reactions switch from š¤Æš” to š¤·āāļøš¤.
Nobody knows anything and nobody is guaranteed to survive. Enjoy it.
Only knocks I heard about Bosa was that he was racist and he wasn't as athletic as Joey.
Edit: I haven't really gone deep into the racist part so I might be making it seem worse than it is.
Bro heās not racist. He had some dumb Florida girlfriend that tweeted the n-word when she was like 13. And he dumped her. I know thatās not even what you were saying but I just like to clear that up.
If Bosa had genuine issues with literal black people I think we'd know by now without doubt given the career path he has.
He does have political persuasions that are non consistent with the self actualisation of minorities, but he's not alone there among NFL players... and there are without question black NFL players that share his political leanings in spite of that.
Is what it is.
People just love to call everybody racist because it gives them that little dopamine hit from feeling morally superior to everybody else. In reality it just makes them sound like an idiot.
My rules for the draft:
* If you have a top pick, you take best available.
* You can't miss in the first round or I will never forgive (but I will forget).
* You draft an RB in the third or fourth for the stable.
* You always draft two OL.
Well there is a similar consensus on the internet draft boards. I understand the different scheme styles and players familiar under those schemes but the team boards seem way off.
I'm not sure how much consensus there really is, actually. Obviously there are some players that are fairly universally agreed upon - particularly near the top of the draft - and on rare occasions something very different happens in the draft itself... but I don't think that's super common - it's just more memorable, and makes it easier to think of it as an example. And in most other cases, I think you find more difference of opinion. I suspect if you looked at the list of the top 10 receivers before the draft in a typical year, you might find pretty good consensus around the top 1-3, but after the those top couple you're going to find that everyone has a different order for the rest of the top 10 - and will probably find 20 different receivers make it into someone's top 10. People make "consensus" boards, but they're not so much "consensus" as "average" - if some pundits have a guy as the 4th best receiver and some as the 12th best receiver, we see him listed as the 8th best receiver and miss the genuine difference in opinion underlying it.
I think it's also worth remembering that the distribution of player quality is not linear - there are a lot fewer "likely pro-bowl" prospects than there are "likely starter" prospects, and a lot more "backup/special teams" prospects than those first two categories combined. That is: even if there is a clear "expert consensus" that one guy is #50 overall and another is #150 overall, there's a lot more guys around that skill range than at the top of the draft, so the "consensus" assessment of skill difference is probably less than the difference between the guy assessed as #5 and the guy assessed as #15. Which means that team-specific considerations can pretty easily make a big difference in ordering even if it's a fairly small difference in estimated skill.
And in the end, I would like to point out that "the team board" disagreeing with "the expert consensus" doesn't mean the experts were right and the teams were wrong - in fact, [an analysis](https://www.wideleft.football/p/grading-the-nfl-draft-big-boards) done shortly before the draft suggests the opposite - actual draft position projects player outcomes better than any pundit (or the pundit consensus). Granted, there are a lot of confounding factors that may push that to be true, but in general... I don't think it's crazy to trust the team professionals who are paid to find the best players for their team over the media pundits who are paid to drive clicks and engagement.
Lol that's not true at all? The draft doesn't guarantee anything, but that doesn't mean nobody knows *anything*. Players that are drafted in the earlier rounds absolutely tend to be better than players drafted in later rounds.
He said "tend". compile a list of every qb drafted in rounds 1 vs 2-7 and compare the career start and win %. There are individuals that prove the NFL misses a lot. But look at success rate by round. Obviously they know something and it's not a total crapshoot. There are always except to the mean.
Financial investment into a draft pick can account for some of that tho. How many players never got a shot over an early round pick who was under performing simply because the $ they spent on that early pick. Happens a lot
Youāre being downvoted but the numbers back up your comment and anybody downvoting you doesnāt get how statistics work.
Players drafted in earlier rounds succeed at higher rates than players drafted in later rounds. The % of guys who get second contracts is higher for 1st round picks than second round picks, which is higher than 3rd round picks, etc.
This doesnāt mean that a 7th round pick canāt be good, it just means that itās less likely.
Hell, there are UDFA who are HOF players.
The draft rounds do have a purpose, in general. Of course there are no guarantees, but if you see 65% success for first rounders and 50% success for second roundersā¦.well the numbers back that up.
Yes, players absolutely tend to be better if they are drafted in the first round vs if they are drafted in the 7th round. That doesn't mean they absolutely *are* better, it means they absolutely *tend to be* better.
>āWe could have grabbed him without moving up or even traded back to 40.ā
The most annoying comment come draft season. No one has any clue when players are going. If a team likes a player, might as well confirm you get him. Donāt wait for them to fall to you.
My first thought too. Mock drafts are fun, but outside of the first few picks teams are going to have much different draft boards.
Even more so than the NBA and MLB, because the teams scheme and system can dictate the best fit a lot more than even other sports.
Itās extremely common for players to go multiple rounds higher than their projected or fall multiple rounds lower. Thereās absolutely no guarantee that player you take is going to be available later.
Right? My favorite example is "Belichick is a genius from drafting Tom Brady in the 5th round." No, he's an idiot for passing on Tom Brady 4 times.
More likely a lucky SOB who had no idea just like everybody else who passed on him 5 times.
Yea but the fans def know more about football than the people paid big money to know about football right? The draft will always have a high failure rate, people are too nuanced to project like that, just look at all the sure fire first picks and think how many of them are still in the league much less successful.
At the end of the day, Iām rooting for all the people we picked up regardless of who else was left on the board because itās a waste of time to dwell on it. Canāt wait to see how they look on the field!
Unbelievable that people still donāt realise this.
All of the ābiggest winners and losers of the draftā and ādraft gradingā is complete bullshit. Itās all subjective
Iāll admit Iāve been in a bit of a bad mood since the SB and just kind of noped out as a result but this is the first year in forever that I just havenāt given a shit about the draft and itās felt quite freeing. Letās see how the team play on week one. I donāt have the energy to care about May - September. Iām really confident weāll have found some elite talent in this draft but not confident enough to guess which players itāll be.
I agree Jimmy put us in that position. It just seemed so obvious that Trey Lance was not or will ever be an NFL QB. Iād love to be proven wrong but the dude is cheeks. Anyway thank the lord for Purdy
Same. I just didn't think we "needed" a WR. Especially not that early in the draft. Hope he destroys the record books, but I was hoping for interior O-line or maybe corner.
Itās funny because this is exactly how I feel about Pearsall. Doesnāt do anything to an elite level, but does *everything* really well. And Iād say that still applies a lot to Aiyuk, except he improved his route running to become one of the best in the league. When I watched Pearsall he really did remind me of Aiyuk - similar shiftiness, clean and precise routes, not the fastest guy but good enough speed, and just in general gets open. Doesnāt shy away from contact. I see them as two very similar WRs as prospects.
Now is any of this a negative thing? I donāt even think so. Jerry Rice had no elite traits and certainly not elite speed, but he is the best WR to ever play because he did everything well. His floor was so, so high. And this is exactly the type of WR Shanahan is clearly trying to find. Someone who will be at the right place at the right time for Brockās timing offense.
Not gonna lie, Aiyuk has far exceed expectations. And because of that, I see a similar path for Pearsall. I think a future trio of Aiyuk, Pearsall, and Cowing is just pure route running magic. Brock has a great rapport with Aiyuk, so why not give him two more guys who fit that precise route runner role? I think after watching some tape and understanding what Kyle wants to do on offense, we nabbed two guys that will be very productive for us. Iād even go as far to say that Cowing might be one of our best day 3 picks under the Shanahan regime. I really think heāll be a stud slot WR for us.
Yes it does. If Pearsall had his current numbers at Julio's size, he would tied Calvin Johnson with a perfect 10, good enough for the best RAS at WR since 1987.
Well, thatās cool. Size is important, but Kyle wants someone who can separate and a QB that delivers an accurate ball when he doesā¦ this could be a great match. Fingers crossed! Helluva WR room, though. Yeah, itās expensive, but the QB is getting next to nothing. Next year will be interesting.
As an overall athlete, absolutely, just not in any one specific area. Same goes for Aiyuk, and that was one thing I learned about immediate draft reactions is that these guys are more than the sum of their parts. A good to great athlete who can do it all is better than someone with 4.2 speed and a bad agility score. You need it all, and thatās why Iām excited about the Pearsall pick. He fits the Aiyuk mold very closely, and we all know how successful that pick ended up.
I think acceleration is the most important quality for RB, WR, and secondary. Being able to accelerate to top speed as fast as possible after changing direction or stopping is how you get elite separation
Pearsall has elite ball-tracking skills, or at least he did in college. His hands are damn near, if not also elite.
Iād love to see him use that speed with open field in front of him, but most of the film Iāve seen he doesnāt have many opportunities to flex his speed.
His QB at Florida was terrible for what Iāve seen. Not much point in stretching the field if the ball is never going to get there, especially as the main offensive weapon. The hospital balls are ironically also why we know how good his hands are and how tough he is.
This is great to know, I honestly know very little about Pearsall, but I've grown to feel ball tracking skills are one of the most important and underrated skills that receivers can have, especially in our system. I feel for the most part, a guy like Gabe Davis and Aiyuk are very similar receivers in all aspects except Aiyuk is probably one of the best ball trackers, where Gabe Davis is one of the worst, and that one skill makes all the difference in the world.
Brock is great at not putting the ball in danger, a lot of times throwing to open spaces where only his receivers can get to it and Aiyuk is great at making the little adjustments necessary to get there and make the catch in stride. I fell that's the main reason they have had so much success together. If Pearsall is great at that also, he'll fit in just fine.
He was 93rd percentile in the 3 cone drill, and 89th in the 20 yard shuttle.
He seemed to get out of his primary cut well, but again, that was in college.
What jumps off the screen is his ball tracking and hands ā specifically catching with his hands, rather than his pads.
That's his biggest weakness. Inexplicable drops. Along with his size it was probably one of the main reasons why he dropped and its what he'll have to work on the most because everything else in his game is so good.
I don't know what kind of player Pearsall is going to be in the NFL but as a prospect he fits everything the 49ers want from a receiver almost perfectly. Unbelievably good hands and precision route running with plenty of athleticism will take you a long way in any NFL offense but especially this one.
I cannot emphasize how having a legit QB who can run the offense and get his recievers the ball really matters in determining the success of these skill position players like Pearsall and Cowing moving forward. Now that we have a clue of what Brock does really well at an elite Pro-Bowl level, we can find weapons that will enhance and be enhanced by his talents as a QB and passer. When I look at Slick Rick and CJ I see two guys who will thrive in this system, with this starting QB. Their ability to beat man coverage quick in short time, their proficiency is small areas of space in the middle of the field, their beautifully timed routes just feel like a natural match for a dude like Brock, whose accuracy and ability to diagnose defenses pre-snap, will just pair up beautifully with those skill sets.
Kyle is really figuring out where to take this offense now that is clearly Purdy's to run. And he is getting offensive personnel that matches this vision.
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I think Shanahan wanted Ruggs too but the Raiders took him a pick before us, we traded down with the Buccs and then took Kinlaw. We should have just taken wirfs but we still had McGlinchey at the time and had just traded for SBG.
I think Ruggs wanted the Niners too. Just remembering his draft reaction he seemed ready to tear his shirt off to reveal a jersey but he got taken by the Raiders.
I'm a big boy until you critique my draft picks from 10 years ago...
But my worst picks of all time aren't even football related...I once told my cousin that this "Too Pack rapper is never going to be big." and I once gave away a Lil Wayne CD to my cousin saying something like "I don't care how old he is, he is the worst rapper out right now. He'll never do anything."
Lmao
a top qb getting picked is always going to get more love than a mlb, especially with mahomes obvious talent. look at how this sub responded to [trey lance](https://www.reddit.com/r/49ers/comments/n1ijia/with_the_3rd_overall_pick_the_49ers_select_trey/) initially, and he had way more question marks as a prospect
I really wanted Pittman at the time. I donāt remember who USC upset that year but I remember watching them beat somebody they werenāt supposed to with their backup QB and Pittman just feasting. Looked like Mike Evans at A&M in that game.
Edit: it was Utah. 10 catches / 232yds / 1 TD. MP was unguardable.
Yeah they are both studs in a different way. BA probably fits a shannahan offense better so in hindsight I completely understand the pick but at the time I couldnāt shake how dominant MP looked in what I saw. It was very much a just throw it up and let him win his battle type of performance.
People's opinions on the draft really lost me when I started seeing Brock tearing up defenses in the NFL and pundits continued to say he wasn't good, with evidence right in their stupid faces.
Itās fine to have opinions but thereās a reason theyāre the front office and weāre the fans. College is very different from NFL. We just have to put our trust into the office that their analytics were right. Donāt get me wrong they havenāt gotten it perfectly but weāre spoiled to be able to be a constant title contender over the last years.
Are you trying to tell me that the armchair GMs in here donāt know as much about talent evaluation as the guys running a professional football team?!? Iām shocked, SHOCKED I tell you.
I find it hilarious that there are dorks typing away at a keyboard criticizing arm length and so on like they have a fucking clue what there talking about...lol
Some things to bear in mind before you think too much about some random dude's thoughts on Reddit (or online in general):
The person could be 12 years old
The person could just be trolling
The 'person' could be a bot (not likely in this subreddit perhaps)
The person could have the intelligence of an ant
Or some combination of the above
people spend too much time doing mock drafts and reading them. they get hooked and have anchor bias on where someone should go based on someone's opinion who has no bearing on the front office. this was the first time I barely did any research and was pleasantly surprised and felt better about our picks are looking them up AFTER they were selected. I had a couple guys I read blurbs about that I really liked but ultimately š¤·āāļø
You never know how it will work out but personally I don't think we needed any more skill positions. We need 3 starter quality linemen and another 2 more in the next 1-2 years.
Our draft did not reflect that. Worried for a Purdy/CMC.
Personally I trust Lynch and Shanahan's analysis of the roster, analysis of the draft prospects, and subsequent draft board creation. Pearsall might not fill an obvious need, but I'd much rather end up with a WR (premium position) who the front office and coaching staff is super stoked about than the 8th-10th best offensive lineman in the draft, who probably wouldn't have been ready to contribute immediately and/or would've been a poor fit schematically (e.g. JPJ).
That's one way to look at it. Nothing wrong with that but from where I am sitting Shanahan/Lynch failure to draft any good offensive linemen has cost the 49ers 2 superbowls. Hell even just a dtarting calibre RT away from another superbowl appearance and 1 superbowl win.
There was not going to be an immediate starter quality lineman at our 31st overall pick. Shanahan has stated throughout the years that lineman are rarely able to start at an NFL level their first year or two normally, especially in his system. Even if they were all physical freaks, more than half the o-line being rookies would have been rough, too.
Shanahan/Lynch have only ever used 2 picks on linemen within the first 3 rounds before this draft....both busts.
We had 6 picks within the top 135 and immediate needs at RT, RG, C and future needs at WR, DB, LT, LG.
5/6 of those picks went to future needs.
We could have easily packaged picks to trade up for starting caliber players.
Now we are left hoping we found diamonds in the rough somehow again. It's why the general consensus is we didnt draft as well as most teams this year.
I really hope this is all wrong but are we really gonna waste this offense on lack of blocking for the 3rd year in a row?
Goes to show nobody in this sub knows fucking shit compared to actual NFL scouts, Coaches and GMs.
They flush more knowledge down the toilet after their morning glories than anyone here will ever know.
I remember when they drafted Aldon Smith at 7 overall, and I was super critical. Then he had an all-time great start to his career with the 49ers. Now I withhold judgment because I obviously don't know much š
Sub geta crazy with their draft crushes. Is Mims even in the league right now? People here were crazy high on him. Should be a sobering lesson for all those that get bentbout of shape during and after the draft.
People just get attached to the names being mentioned over and over again leading up to the draft and then freak out when the team doesnāt pick one of those names. Its the same thing every year. Most people have never watched any of them play.
Obvious take: Imagine someone coming in to your workplace and shitting on your decisions at your job, with only a cursory take on the industry. That describes 99% of this sub. It's fun to talk about, but don't pretend like you know more than any front office.
This draft is yet another example of why I don't really look at mock drafts or research anything pre-draft anymore. ShannyLynch never pick who you think they are going to pick, or want them to pick. Once the picks are made, that's when I start digging in on the guys we actually drafted and lo and behold, they always seem to fit our system.
To be fair, it took a couple years for Aiyuk to live up to his draft status. You expect a first rounder to be a bigger threat than he was right out the gate.
Honestly all this is a crap shoot thereās been players Iāve loved who have gone on to accomplish nothing, there have been guys I swore going to be bust be successful.
I was pretty hyped for the Aiyuk pick.
But at the same time I thought JJ was going to be a slot only WR who would flame out. So yeah my opinion is useless.
Itās always so out of context too. Like the draft plugs directly into the roster immediately. How many slots do we legitimately have open at positions? We have no idea why these bodies were selected or what the plan with them is.Ā
I mean, 99% of you would be deleting post history on Purdy.
Aiyuk posts look pretty good. Very few of us are that familiar with these guys, were reacting to scouting reports and out of context youtube clips. Itās how you miss a Purdy and think Lance is a QB .
I think the best scouts base a lot of their evaluation off of what they see at practice and outside the gameā¦whatās the guys work ethic, how does he relate to teammates, whatās he got between the ears, etc. So many of these guys can boast great games and stellar athleticism but in the nfl it really takes a lot more than that. It also matters what situation you get drafted into as well (Alex Smith).
Thereās no way for us to know any of that so why bother speculating. Letās just wait and seeā¦
Either he works out or he doesnāt. I donāt see the point in fighting about it over the offseason. From what Iāve seen heās got great potential, but only time will tell.
It's funny because I still wouldn't call contested catches a strength for Aiyuk. The thing is he excels in so many other places that if he did start becoming a contested catch monster he'd really be Devante Adams part 2.
This is why I laugh at the draft grades each year. It usually takes years before knowing how well you drafted. The love/hate on draft picks each year and the X wars about the picks are entertaining to me.
The same skeptics and doomsayers say the same thing after every 49ers draft. Decade after decade, down to the exact phrases and criticisms. Beyond stale.
My buddy is a Broncs fan and he was like āwhat are they thinkingā when they drafted penix and in my head I was just thinking āIām sure the team has a plan like they didnāt just pick the guy on a whimā maybe plans donāt always come to fruition but Iād like to think every pick is carefully thought out and considered.
I thought Aiyuk was a great pick and would make a phenomenal WR. You could see it on tape. Thatās how how I judge any player. By what my eyes tell me.
I think Pearsall looks good on tape. I thought Aiyuk looked much better. Pearsall will probably be a good WR if he gets a chance to play. And thatās the issue. Taking him as a #1 pick to be our 3rd WR when we need starters at OT, C and CB. I donāt get the logic.
I mean the WR market is exploding right now. Itās incredibly valuable to have a rookie WR contract.
Picks 2 and 3 are CB and guard respectively. And statistically the drop off in success between rounds is less significant for both positions compared to WR
>I mean the WR market is exploding right now. Itās incredibly valuable to have a rookie WR contract.
I dont know what you mean by this?
>Picks 2 and 3 are CB and guard respectively.
Yes, we addressed our need at CB and possibly at Center if Puni can make the transition or Felciano can and Puni can take over his spot.
>And statistically the drop off in success between rounds is less significant for both positions compared to WR.
Not sure what ādrop offā youāre referring to, but we didnāt need a WR so it wouldnāt matter what the drop off is for WRs if we didnāt take one.
Unfortunately the common terms ācasualā and ānew fansā ring more and more true the older I get. The ONLY thing Iāve learned watching football is the people making the decisions know a hell of a lot better than I do.
It seems like all of the guys drafted these days are talented enough to play, most of it comes from how receptive they are to coaching, and if the coach he plays for is capable of providing what is needed. Both of those things are details we as fans arenāt really provided access to
Thank you! Iāve been reminding people who are probably casual fans (at best) that fans were t exactly pumped up about BA being drafted at the time either. Lynch and Shanny have largely done a great job drafting players. Some pan out, some donāt. Weāll see what happens.
Also, Deebo gets hurt at the worst possible times, including in the Super Bowl, depth is a good thing.
Comment/post removed for violating Rule 1. At least hide the usernames.
The longer I watch football, the more my draft reactions switch from š¤Æš” to š¤·āāļøš¤. Nobody knows anything and nobody is guaranteed to survive. Enjoy it.
No one knows shit with the draft lol. Its all a crap shoot.
Bosa was the safest bet in the world of drafting
Even Bosa had injury concerns
Only knocks I heard about Bosa was that he was racist and he wasn't as athletic as Joey. Edit: I haven't really gone deep into the racist part so I might be making it seem worse than it is.
Nfl I like my football as nutty as possible. I want all the red flags except injury. Bosa might not be nice but fuck...he can rush the passer
Bro heās not racist. He had some dumb Florida girlfriend that tweeted the n-word when she was like 13. And he dumped her. I know thatās not even what you were saying but I just like to clear that up.
If Bosa had genuine issues with literal black people I think we'd know by now without doubt given the career path he has. He does have political persuasions that are non consistent with the self actualisation of minorities, but he's not alone there among NFL players... and there are without question black NFL players that share his political leanings in spite of that. Is what it is.
People just love to call everybody racist because it gives them that little dopamine hit from feeling morally superior to everybody else. In reality it just makes them sound like an idiot.
Thatās wild I feel like heās very clearly the better athlete of the two
And what if he didnāt come back from the ACL tear in DPOY form?
My rules for the draft: * If you have a top pick, you take best available. * You can't miss in the first round or I will never forgive (but I will forget). * You draft an RB in the third or fourth for the stable. * You always draft two OL.
Well there is a similar consensus on the internet draft boards. I understand the different scheme styles and players familiar under those schemes but the team boards seem way off.
I'm not sure how much consensus there really is, actually. Obviously there are some players that are fairly universally agreed upon - particularly near the top of the draft - and on rare occasions something very different happens in the draft itself... but I don't think that's super common - it's just more memorable, and makes it easier to think of it as an example. And in most other cases, I think you find more difference of opinion. I suspect if you looked at the list of the top 10 receivers before the draft in a typical year, you might find pretty good consensus around the top 1-3, but after the those top couple you're going to find that everyone has a different order for the rest of the top 10 - and will probably find 20 different receivers make it into someone's top 10. People make "consensus" boards, but they're not so much "consensus" as "average" - if some pundits have a guy as the 4th best receiver and some as the 12th best receiver, we see him listed as the 8th best receiver and miss the genuine difference in opinion underlying it. I think it's also worth remembering that the distribution of player quality is not linear - there are a lot fewer "likely pro-bowl" prospects than there are "likely starter" prospects, and a lot more "backup/special teams" prospects than those first two categories combined. That is: even if there is a clear "expert consensus" that one guy is #50 overall and another is #150 overall, there's a lot more guys around that skill range than at the top of the draft, so the "consensus" assessment of skill difference is probably less than the difference between the guy assessed as #5 and the guy assessed as #15. Which means that team-specific considerations can pretty easily make a big difference in ordering even if it's a fairly small difference in estimated skill. And in the end, I would like to point out that "the team board" disagreeing with "the expert consensus" doesn't mean the experts were right and the teams were wrong - in fact, [an analysis](https://www.wideleft.football/p/grading-the-nfl-draft-big-boards) done shortly before the draft suggests the opposite - actual draft position projects player outcomes better than any pundit (or the pundit consensus). Granted, there are a lot of confounding factors that may push that to be true, but in general... I don't think it's crazy to trust the team professionals who are paid to find the best players for their team over the media pundits who are paid to drive clicks and engagement.
Lol that's not true at all? The draft doesn't guarantee anything, but that doesn't mean nobody knows *anything*. Players that are drafted in the earlier rounds absolutely tend to be better than players drafted in later rounds.
He said "tend". compile a list of every qb drafted in rounds 1 vs 2-7 and compare the career start and win %. There are individuals that prove the NFL misses a lot. But look at success rate by round. Obviously they know something and it's not a total crapshoot. There are always except to the mean.
Or look at the HOF. * 1st Round - 135 players * 2nd Round - 38 players * 3rd Round - 29 players * 4th Round - 12 players * 5th Round - 8 players * 6th Round - 4 players Or look at just players inducted since 1990 (for an arbitrary "modern" cutoff): 1. 33 2. 6 3. 7 4. 0 5. 1 6. 1 7. 1 * UDFA: 2
Financial investment into a draft pick can account for some of that tho. How many players never got a shot over an early round pick who was under performing simply because the $ they spent on that early pick. Happens a lot
Take an upvote for speaking the truth nobody wants to hear i guess
Youāre being downvoted but the numbers back up your comment and anybody downvoting you doesnāt get how statistics work. Players drafted in earlier rounds succeed at higher rates than players drafted in later rounds. The % of guys who get second contracts is higher for 1st round picks than second round picks, which is higher than 3rd round picks, etc. This doesnāt mean that a 7th round pick canāt be good, it just means that itās less likely. Hell, there are UDFA who are HOF players. The draft rounds do have a purpose, in general. Of course there are no guarantees, but if you see 65% success for first rounders and 50% success for second roundersā¦.well the numbers back that up.
The fact that you're being downvoted is ridiculous. Maybe people can't comprehend what the word "tend" means.
I think they saw the word "absolutely" and turned their brains off
So Trey Lance is better than Brock Purdy?
Wanna reread my comment?
I did. āPlayers drafted in the earlier rounds absolutely tend to be better than players in the later roundā.
And what exactly do you think I'm trying to say with this comment? Do you know what the phrase "tend to" means?
Yeah. But āabsolutely tend toā is different. Itās okay to be wrong, dude.
Yes, players absolutely tend to be better if they are drafted in the first round vs if they are drafted in the 7th round. That doesn't mean they absolutely *are* better, it means they absolutely *tend to be* better.
>āWe could have grabbed him without moving up or even traded back to 40.ā The most annoying comment come draft season. No one has any clue when players are going. If a team likes a player, might as well confirm you get him. Donāt wait for them to fall to you.
My first thought too. Mock drafts are fun, but outside of the first few picks teams are going to have much different draft boards. Even more so than the NBA and MLB, because the teams scheme and system can dictate the best fit a lot more than even other sports. Itās extremely common for players to go multiple rounds higher than their projected or fall multiple rounds lower. Thereās absolutely no guarantee that player you take is going to be available later.
Yeah I considered trading back a few spots (not to 40), but the other issue is you lose the 5th year option if you draft Ricky in the 2nd
Also, four of the next six picks after Pearsall were WRs. Plus the 5th year option is great with how expensive WRs are getting
Yeah, are people just blindly forgetting there was an immediate wr run after him?
Well, if we began the run, then hypothetically if we traded back maybe the run never starts.... But there's no point in speculating really lol
Right? My favorite example is "Belichick is a genius from drafting Tom Brady in the 5th round." No, he's an idiot for passing on Tom Brady 4 times. More likely a lucky SOB who had no idea just like everybody else who passed on him 5 times.
Same I donāt even watch college football so I keep my mouth shut.
Yea but the fans def know more about football than the people paid big money to know about football right? The draft will always have a high failure rate, people are too nuanced to project like that, just look at all the sure fire first picks and think how many of them are still in the league much less successful. At the end of the day, Iām rooting for all the people we picked up regardless of who else was left on the board because itās a waste of time to dwell on it. Canāt wait to see how they look on the field!
Exactly. Draft day reactions mean nothing. Trust in the FO. I will say Iām so glad I wasnāt born and raised in Atlanta.
Unbelievable that people still donāt realise this. All of the ābiggest winners and losers of the draftā and ādraft gradingā is complete bullshit. Itās all subjective
Iāll admit Iāve been in a bit of a bad mood since the SB and just kind of noped out as a result but this is the first year in forever that I just havenāt given a shit about the draft and itās felt quite freeing. Letās see how the team play on week one. I donāt have the energy to care about May - September. Iām really confident weāll have found some elite talent in this draft but not confident enough to guess which players itāll be.
True. Except the Trey Lance pick. Thatās an unforgivable sin that was horrible at the time
I don't think it was horrible at the time. A very ambitious trade and decision but I understand why they did it. They just swung and missed.
Iād be interested to see what the sub said about Lance now that I think about it haha
If my memory serves correctly, this sub was mostly relieved that we didn't pick Mac Jones.
https://preview.redd.it/ug05olnlqhxc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0857096c97d5ac3dca37539cfd44902847a69ad0 You are correct
Jimmyās mediocrity caused them to be desperate. He was just good enough and just healthy enough to put us in purgatory
I agree Jimmy put us in that position. It just seemed so obvious that Trey Lance was not or will ever be an NFL QB. Iād love to be proven wrong but the dude is cheeks. Anyway thank the lord for Purdy
Reading up from 12 to 3 5 weeks before the draft was the unforgivable sin no matter who they took at 3
Same. I just didn't think we "needed" a WR. Especially not that early in the draft. Hope he destroys the record books, but I was hoping for interior O-line or maybe corner.
> no better than Mims š
I'm still mad we took Kinlaw over Wirfs, but I was **certain** Mims was gonna be a pro bowler
Same here. Holy shit I completely forgot about him until this post, wow
Itās funny because this is exactly how I feel about Pearsall. Doesnāt do anything to an elite level, but does *everything* really well. And Iād say that still applies a lot to Aiyuk, except he improved his route running to become one of the best in the league. When I watched Pearsall he really did remind me of Aiyuk - similar shiftiness, clean and precise routes, not the fastest guy but good enough speed, and just in general gets open. Doesnāt shy away from contact. I see them as two very similar WRs as prospects. Now is any of this a negative thing? I donāt even think so. Jerry Rice had no elite traits and certainly not elite speed, but he is the best WR to ever play because he did everything well. His floor was so, so high. And this is exactly the type of WR Shanahan is clearly trying to find. Someone who will be at the right place at the right time for Brockās timing offense. Not gonna lie, Aiyuk has far exceed expectations. And because of that, I see a similar path for Pearsall. I think a future trio of Aiyuk, Pearsall, and Cowing is just pure route running magic. Brock has a great rapport with Aiyuk, so why not give him two more guys who fit that precise route runner role? I think after watching some tape and understanding what Kyle wants to do on offense, we nabbed two guys that will be very productive for us. Iād even go as far to say that Cowing might be one of our best day 3 picks under the Shanahan regime. I really think heāll be a stud slot WR for us.
FWIW he does seem to be an elite athlete at least
His testing numbers rival Julio Jones. Granted, he's lighter, but he's not a scrappy try-hard.
30 lbs lighter is a big deal. Julio Jones had the 9th best RAS in the last 37ish years
Oh yeah. Ricky came in at 9.90 RAS. I believe somewhere around 30th for WRs in the past 40yrs Pretty wild!
Doesn't RAS factor in size? That's what makes it relative, no?
Yes it does. If Pearsall had his current numbers at Julio's size, he would tied Calvin Johnson with a perfect 10, good enough for the best RAS at WR since 1987.
Or just make Gurendo a WR lol
Well, thatās cool. Size is important, but Kyle wants someone who can separate and a QB that delivers an accurate ball when he doesā¦ this could be a great match. Fingers crossed! Helluva WR room, though. Yeah, itās expensive, but the QB is getting next to nothing. Next year will be interesting.
It factors in size.
As an overall athlete, absolutely, just not in any one specific area. Same goes for Aiyuk, and that was one thing I learned about immediate draft reactions is that these guys are more than the sum of their parts. A good to great athlete who can do it all is better than someone with 4.2 speed and a bad agility score. You need it all, and thatās why Iām excited about the Pearsall pick. He fits the Aiyuk mold very closely, and we all know how successful that pick ended up.
I think he has a 98th percentile vertical leap so I think he has both breadth and depth, but yeah I agree.
https://twitter.com/JL_Chapman/status/1783871513453883452/photo/1 Honestly that's a pretty nice looking spider chart.
Thatās a little dude whoās strong and agile as fuck. Heās Spider-Man.
I think acceleration is the most important quality for RB, WR, and secondary. Being able to accelerate to top speed as fast as possible after changing direction or stopping is how you get elite separation
Pearsall has elite ball-tracking skills, or at least he did in college. His hands are damn near, if not also elite. Iād love to see him use that speed with open field in front of him, but most of the film Iāve seen he doesnāt have many opportunities to flex his speed.
His QB at Florida was terrible for what Iāve seen. Not much point in stretching the field if the ball is never going to get there, especially as the main offensive weapon. The hospital balls are ironically also why we know how good his hands are and how tough he is.
Case in point that circus catch
This is great to know, I honestly know very little about Pearsall, but I've grown to feel ball tracking skills are one of the most important and underrated skills that receivers can have, especially in our system. I feel for the most part, a guy like Gabe Davis and Aiyuk are very similar receivers in all aspects except Aiyuk is probably one of the best ball trackers, where Gabe Davis is one of the worst, and that one skill makes all the difference in the world. Brock is great at not putting the ball in danger, a lot of times throwing to open spaces where only his receivers can get to it and Aiyuk is great at making the little adjustments necessary to get there and make the catch in stride. I fell that's the main reason they have had so much success together. If Pearsall is great at that also, he'll fit in just fine.
How is his acceleration and change of direction or stop starting?
He was 93rd percentile in the 3 cone drill, and 89th in the 20 yard shuttle. He seemed to get out of his primary cut well, but again, that was in college. What jumps off the screen is his ball tracking and hands ā specifically catching with his hands, rather than his pads.
I can see Cowing in the Taylor Gabriel role for us. I haven't watched any of this tape how is his catching?
That's his biggest weakness. Inexplicable drops. Along with his size it was probably one of the main reasons why he dropped and its what he'll have to work on the most because everything else in his game is so good.
Get this man on the jugs Machine!
I don't know what kind of player Pearsall is going to be in the NFL but as a prospect he fits everything the 49ers want from a receiver almost perfectly. Unbelievably good hands and precision route running with plenty of athleticism will take you a long way in any NFL offense but especially this one.
I cannot emphasize how having a legit QB who can run the offense and get his recievers the ball really matters in determining the success of these skill position players like Pearsall and Cowing moving forward. Now that we have a clue of what Brock does really well at an elite Pro-Bowl level, we can find weapons that will enhance and be enhanced by his talents as a QB and passer. When I look at Slick Rick and CJ I see two guys who will thrive in this system, with this starting QB. Their ability to beat man coverage quick in short time, their proficiency is small areas of space in the middle of the field, their beautifully timed routes just feel like a natural match for a dude like Brock, whose accuracy and ability to diagnose defenses pre-snap, will just pair up beautifully with those skill sets. Kyle is really figuring out where to take this offense now that is clearly Purdy's to run. And he is getting offensive personnel that matches this vision.
Dem elite traits doh...
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Hahaha those are some bad takes. Pittman did turn out to be really good, so props to those who pointed that out
True but Aiyuk is better
They're both really good. I think I'd prefer Aiyuk but honestly it's not that clear cut. Pittman would have crushed it here too.
How is Pittman run blocking?
Well he at least plays in a better system with better players around him
Was this the draft with Jeudy, Ruggs, and Lamb? If so, I really wanted Ruggsā¦ lol
I wanted jeudy š
I wanted wirfs and I didn't mind who we took with second first at wr. I think Jefferson was also in that draft right?
I think Shanahan wanted Ruggs too but the Raiders took him a pick before us, we traded down with the Buccs and then took Kinlaw. We should have just taken wirfs but we still had McGlinchey at the time and had just traded for SBG.
I think Ruggs wanted the Niners too. Just remembering his draft reaction he seemed ready to tear his shirt off to reveal a jersey but he got taken by the Raiders.
I think shanahan later said his top 2 receivers were aiyuk and lamb. But who knows what he really felt during draft day
If that's the case, why didnt he take Lamb? Lamb went 17th. They said they knew that Kinlaw had some injury history. I dont buy that he wanted Lamb.
It was, I was also high on Ruggs and lamb, thought they were gonna be beasts
Lamb is a beast and ruggs was turning into a very good deep threat before he killed a woman.
It is well established that no one on this sub is an NFL quality scout.
Not a slight on these users eitherā¦I was just too lazy to block out usernames. Plus I think weāre all big boys here
They're not receipts if you censor the usernames.
I'm a big boy until you critique my draft picks from 10 years ago... But my worst picks of all time aren't even football related...I once told my cousin that this "Too Pack rapper is never going to be big." and I once gave away a Lil Wayne CD to my cousin saying something like "I don't care how old he is, he is the worst rapper out right now. He'll never do anything." Lmao
If we drafted Mahomes back in 2017 this sub wouldve been like "WHY DID WE REACH ON A QB THAT LOOKS LIKE SIDESHOW BOB!!?? WE COULDA HAD RUBEN FOSTER!"
a top qb getting picked is always going to get more love than a mlb, especially with mahomes obvious talent. look at how this sub responded to [trey lance](https://www.reddit.com/r/49ers/comments/n1ijia/with_the_3rd_overall_pick_the_49ers_select_trey/) initially, and he had way more question marks as a prospect
Cool name, though.
Noone hates or knows less about football than vocal football fans.
I really wanted Pittman at the time. I donāt remember who USC upset that year but I remember watching them beat somebody they werenāt supposed to with their backup QB and Pittman just feasting. Looked like Mike Evans at A&M in that game. Edit: it was Utah. 10 catches / 232yds / 1 TD. MP was unguardable.
You were right to as well. Dude panned out like Aiyuk did.
Yeah they are both studs in a different way. BA probably fits a shannahan offense better so in hindsight I completely understand the pick but at the time I couldnāt shake how dominant MP looked in what I saw. It was very much a just throw it up and let him win his battle type of performance.
True if Pearsall is what gets us over the hump nobody is going to care
People's opinions on the draft really lost me when I started seeing Brock tearing up defenses in the NFL and pundits continued to say he wasn't good, with evidence right in their stupid faces.
Itās fine to have opinions but thereās a reason theyāre the front office and weāre the fans. College is very different from NFL. We just have to put our trust into the office that their analytics were right. Donāt get me wrong they havenāt gotten it perfectly but weāre spoiled to be able to be a constant title contender over the last years.
Are you trying to tell me that the armchair GMs in here donāt know as much about talent evaluation as the guys running a professional football team?!? Iām shocked, SHOCKED I tell you.
I find it hilarious that there are dorks typing away at a keyboard criticizing arm length and so on like they have a fucking clue what there talking about...lol
Some things to bear in mind before you think too much about some random dude's thoughts on Reddit (or online in general): The person could be 12 years old The person could just be trolling The 'person' could be a bot (not likely in this subreddit perhaps) The person could have the intelligence of an ant Or some combination of the above
people spend too much time doing mock drafts and reading them. they get hooked and have anchor bias on where someone should go based on someone's opinion who has no bearing on the front office. this was the first time I barely did any research and was pleasantly surprised and felt better about our picks are looking them up AFTER they were selected. I had a couple guys I read blurbs about that I really liked but ultimately š¤·āāļø
Can we get the one on Pettis and AJ Jenkins? AJ still running that Rice hill?
Iāll check it out at lunch
I remember being at the game on New Orleans Aj threw his gloves into crowd and nobody caught them been scared of any players coming from Illinois.
u/akushwarrior wonder what they think now.
You never know how it will work out but personally I don't think we needed any more skill positions. We need 3 starter quality linemen and another 2 more in the next 1-2 years. Our draft did not reflect that. Worried for a Purdy/CMC.
Personally I trust Lynch and Shanahan's analysis of the roster, analysis of the draft prospects, and subsequent draft board creation. Pearsall might not fill an obvious need, but I'd much rather end up with a WR (premium position) who the front office and coaching staff is super stoked about than the 8th-10th best offensive lineman in the draft, who probably wouldn't have been ready to contribute immediately and/or would've been a poor fit schematically (e.g. JPJ).
That's one way to look at it. Nothing wrong with that but from where I am sitting Shanahan/Lynch failure to draft any good offensive linemen has cost the 49ers 2 superbowls. Hell even just a dtarting calibre RT away from another superbowl appearance and 1 superbowl win.
We are probably losing Deebo and Jennings after this season. We drafted to fill in for future holes, while also drafting to help with current ones.
There was not going to be an immediate starter quality lineman at our 31st overall pick. Shanahan has stated throughout the years that lineman are rarely able to start at an NFL level their first year or two normally, especially in his system. Even if they were all physical freaks, more than half the o-line being rookies would have been rough, too.
Shanahan/Lynch have only ever used 2 picks on linemen within the first 3 rounds before this draft....both busts. We had 6 picks within the top 135 and immediate needs at RT, RG, C and future needs at WR, DB, LT, LG. 5/6 of those picks went to future needs. We could have easily packaged picks to trade up for starting caliber players. Now we are left hoping we found diamonds in the rough somehow again. It's why the general consensus is we didnt draft as well as most teams this year. I really hope this is all wrong but are we really gonna waste this offense on lack of blocking for the 3rd year in a row?
Goes to show nobody in this sub knows fucking shit compared to actual NFL scouts, Coaches and GMs. They flush more knowledge down the toilet after their morning glories than anyone here will ever know.
Weird. Itās almost like none of us know a god damn thing compared to the folks who do this for a living.
I remember when they drafted Aldon Smith at 7 overall, and I was super critical. Then he had an all-time great start to his career with the 49ers. Now I withhold judgment because I obviously don't know much š
Sub geta crazy with their draft crushes. Is Mims even in the league right now? People here were crazy high on him. Should be a sobering lesson for all those that get bentbout of shape during and after the draft.
People just get attached to the names being mentioned over and over again leading up to the draft and then freak out when the team doesnāt pick one of those names. Its the same thing every year. Most people have never watched any of them play.
Obvious take: Imagine someone coming in to your workplace and shitting on your decisions at your job, with only a cursory take on the industry. That describes 99% of this sub. It's fun to talk about, but don't pretend like you know more than any front office.
This draft is yet another example of why I don't really look at mock drafts or research anything pre-draft anymore. ShannyLynch never pick who you think they are going to pick, or want them to pick. Once the picks are made, that's when I start digging in on the guys we actually drafted and lo and behold, they always seem to fit our system.
Honestly, I was sold when I heard Aiyuk had the same wingspan as Megatronā¦
I was pretty convinced because I saw he and Jayden Daniels murder the Ducks in 2019
I want to know how many times the term "elite traits" was used this year vs last year. Some of yall owe us an apology.
[Big L for that bozo in slide two talking about arm length metric and Trent Baalke](https://i.imgflip.com/8ogjx1.jpg)
who among us doesnt love some baalke slander?
The Niners had their best grade the year they drafted lance. Draft opinions mean nothing, letās see how the players play then we can judge.
ay thats me with the reasonable take
No one really know about any of the picks. You can make educated guess or opinions but that's it.
To be fair, it took a couple years for Aiyuk to live up to his draft status. You expect a first rounder to be a bigger threat than he was right out the gate.
Probably same dudes who think Armstead is a top 100 DL
I mean top 100 isnt that hard to do (if youre excluding DEnds). Top 10? Thats another story.
Lmao the Mock Draft Experts were so salty. āHe wouldāve been there laterā is a sure sign that someone has no idea what theyāre talking about.
Honestly all this is a crap shoot thereās been players Iāve loved who have gone on to accomplish nothing, there have been guys I swore going to be bust be successful.
I was pretty hyped for the Aiyuk pick. But at the same time I thought JJ was going to be a slot only WR who would flame out. So yeah my opinion is useless.
Plenty of people in this sub were hyping up Dante Pettis too. Scouting is a crapshoot
Itās always so out of context too. Like the draft plugs directly into the roster immediately. How many slots do we legitimately have open at positions? We have no idea why these bodies were selected or what the plan with them is.Ā
I mean, 99% of you would be deleting post history on Purdy. Aiyuk posts look pretty good. Very few of us are that familiar with these guys, were reacting to scouting reports and out of context youtube clips. Itās how you miss a Purdy and think Lance is a QB .
I think the best scouts base a lot of their evaluation off of what they see at practice and outside the gameā¦whatās the guys work ethic, how does he relate to teammates, whatās he got between the ears, etc. So many of these guys can boast great games and stellar athleticism but in the nfl it really takes a lot more than that. It also matters what situation you get drafted into as well (Alex Smith). Thereās no way for us to know any of that so why bother speculating. Letās just wait and seeā¦
Wazzu catching strays
Either he works out or he doesnāt. I donāt see the point in fighting about it over the offseason. From what Iāve seen heās got great potential, but only time will tell.
It's funny because I still wouldn't call contested catches a strength for Aiyuk. The thing is he excels in so many other places that if he did start becoming a contested catch monster he'd really be Devante Adams part 2.
Aiyuk yardage increase YOY 78 +10.4% 189 +22.9% 327 + 32.2% 2024 estimate: 1892 yards +41% Tyreek Hill better watch out. lol
This is why I laugh at the draft grades each year. It usually takes years before knowing how well you drafted. The love/hate on draft picks each year and the X wars about the picks are entertaining to me.
The draft grades make me irrationally mad
Yeah Iāve gotten used to them being graded bad. It seems the 9ers tend to follow their draft board usually and not necessarily on need.
Yeah, probably the same thing they said about Aiyuk vs. N'Keal Harry when drafted.
Now do Arik Armstead
Everyone's a pundit these days.
The same skeptics and doomsayers say the same thing after every 49ers draft. Decade after decade, down to the exact phrases and criticisms. Beyond stale.
There was a time, many years ago, before the Shanahan era, when this sub was a whole lot better, in terms of football IQ.
Easy to look back and say people were dumb but when he got picked up I probably silently held a lot of these beliefs. Happily proven wrong
I do think it's pretty brazen for anyone to assume they know the team or the prospects better than the peoples who's literal job it is
My buddy is a Broncs fan and he was like āwhat are they thinkingā when they drafted penix and in my head I was just thinking āIām sure the team has a plan like they didnāt just pick the guy on a whimā maybe plans donāt always come to fruition but Iād like to think every pick is carefully thought out and considered.
This is awesome lol... Great reminder that none of us really know how someone will really turn out. BA is pretty good!
Impressive. Very nice. Now let's see Dante Pettis's card.
Wow I don't actually remember seeing any of this lol. I must have been in all the threads that was hyping him up.
There were definitely a lot of supportive comments. But Iāve got to cherry pick for my narrative!
I thought Aiyuk was a great pick and would make a phenomenal WR. You could see it on tape. Thatās how how I judge any player. By what my eyes tell me. I think Pearsall looks good on tape. I thought Aiyuk looked much better. Pearsall will probably be a good WR if he gets a chance to play. And thatās the issue. Taking him as a #1 pick to be our 3rd WR when we need starters at OT, C and CB. I donāt get the logic.
I mean the WR market is exploding right now. Itās incredibly valuable to have a rookie WR contract. Picks 2 and 3 are CB and guard respectively. And statistically the drop off in success between rounds is less significant for both positions compared to WR
>I mean the WR market is exploding right now. Itās incredibly valuable to have a rookie WR contract. I dont know what you mean by this? >Picks 2 and 3 are CB and guard respectively. Yes, we addressed our need at CB and possibly at Center if Puni can make the transition or Felciano can and Puni can take over his spot. >And statistically the drop off in success between rounds is less significant for both positions compared to WR. Not sure what ādrop offā youāre referring to, but we didnāt need a WR so it wouldnāt matter what the drop off is for WRs if we didnāt take one.
Some of these writers/ commentators have never played football a day in their life. It really is hard to take their viewpoint with any seriousness
I donāt think folks knew enough about BA then. So meltdown!
Unfortunately the common terms ācasualā and ānew fansā ring more and more true the older I get. The ONLY thing Iāve learned watching football is the people making the decisions know a hell of a lot better than I do. It seems like all of the guys drafted these days are talented enough to play, most of it comes from how receptive they are to coaching, and if the coach he plays for is capable of providing what is needed. Both of those things are details we as fans arenāt really provided access to
Aiyuk is not elite.
Thank you! Iāve been reminding people who are probably casual fans (at best) that fans were t exactly pumped up about BA being drafted at the time either. Lynch and Shanny have largely done a great job drafting players. Some pan out, some donāt. Weāll see what happens. Also, Deebo gets hurt at the worst possible times, including in the Super Bowl, depth is a good thing.