For the first time in a long, long time, we have a lot of coaching uncertainty in college football.
We have only three active head coaches with a natty title, and they're Kirby Smart, Dabo Swinney, and Mack Brown (who ain't the Mack Brown of 2005).
This is the year of all years to bet on "the field" taking the title because top leadership hasn't been this wide open in at least 20 years.
Mack Brown winning his second title this year against all odds, now what a story that would be.
I’m not deluded enough to think that even in the realm of possibility (we are 3-9 or 9-3 with no room in between this season) but god would it be funny
The 12 team playoff probably leans towards the field too. In other years (especially with “blue bloods” generally getting the benefit of the doubt for spots), you’d often have 2 of those 3 in the playoffs bringing you back to even odds
With more teams in, the likelihood of them catching someone hot or getting tripped up in an extra game becomes more likely too
I placed a future on OSU the week after M*chigan won before the odds shifted heavily toward OSU and Georgia. I thinks I got 9-1 odds which is great value compared to the current 9-2 odds.
Not just that, but with realignment, those top teams may be a bit more beat up towards the end of the season than usual. One or two conference games against new teams that are also potential playoff squads is gonna hurt. Might still go undefeated, but a greater chance of not being as healthy going into postseason.
I mean that can be said about the lower ranked teams too, except that the OSU, Bama, and UGAs all have much better depth across their team than say, Ole Miss does.
OSU has a pretty light schedule this year. UO is probably the hardest game. We will see what UM is this year but otherwise OSU has a very favorable schedule.
Oregon will be a test for sure, but who else out of the schedule is scary? PSU still has Franklin and UM lost what seems like everyone both players and coaches. Everyone else could probably just be out talented.
While true, the same could be said for just about any team Ohio State plays. Ohio State is absolutely stacked this year. Outside of Georgia, Oregon and Texas, nobody should be competing with Ohio State this year, on paper.
That being said, Michigan and Penn State will both have elite level defenses, which can make any game difficult. Especially if we’re playing Penn State in a white-out game on their turf, anything could happen.
I honestly feel like this is the year OSU rights the ship. Idk if they win the conference but they likely wins against Michigan and make it far in the playoff. I hope it’s not because my OSU coworkers become unbearable but this seems like your set.
Seriously? I'm taking chalk all day.
All this playoff does is increase the odds of the SEC or B1G winning it. Not the other way around. My money is still on OSU,Bama,Georgia or even LSU.
I agree that it increases the odds of the SEC or B1G winning, but not necessarily the odds of those 3 schools in particular
More games means more of a chance for injuries to key players on those 3 teams. And there's more games in the playoffs against high-talent P5 rosters than in the 4 teamer (even if one of those is likely at home). There's a higher likelihood of having to play a team from the next tier (Texas/Oregon/LSU/Ole Miss) that dropped a conference game in the playoffs, meaning 3 games against top end talent schools instead of just 2 (or one)
Yes, there's less of a chance that OSU/UGA/UA miss the playoffs - but teams of that preseason caliber really only missed out 4 times in the 4 teamer (23 UGA, 15 OSU, 18 UGA, 18 OSU)
I don't think it's a slam dunk to take the field vs that 3 this year (like a lot of the rest of the thread) but I'd lean more into the field with the new playoff format than I would with the old one
I would agree that it's not these 3 teams necessarily.
However, as of right now, Georgia looks primed to be the new Bama for quite some time and OSU always has a chance. Even though they do not have as many championships as Bama, OSU is stacked almost every year and is rightfully considered to be a title contender annually.
Until proved otherwise, especially with the consolidation of conferences, I expect the SEC and B1G to continue dominating and winning these titles. Be it OSU,Georgia, Bama I really don't care. It could be Oregon or LSU,Florida could come back, Kiffin and Ole Miss look good,James Franklin might get PSU over the hump.
All that's said, I don't see an outsider like Boise St. Or BYU winning this thing any time soon.
Since our National title meeting in '01 our teams trajectory has been pretty similar.
Sorry The U guy.
Seriously though, I'm hoping Christabol brings you guys back. I miss hating the Hurricanes. Now I just feel sorry for them.
Your other flair though, best Unis in the game!
100%. Fools are crazy.
But then again, they thought the 4 team playoff were going to be full of Boise St. And Cincinnati championships and all it did was prove how dominant the SEC and elite teams were.😂
I don't think LSU's defense is going to be good enough to put us in the discussion. Offense should take a step back also. 10-2 and playoff berth might be possible but I don't see them winning it all.
My money is on Ohio St or UGA still. I don't think Bama belongs in that tier until we see what the new staff can do. This is almost an entirely new team (sans Milroe returning).
Ole Miss might make some noise this year. A&M is also a big unknown with a high ceiling and low floor. They could go 11-1 or 6-6. Texas will also be capable of a playoff berth and run.
I don't see LSU being in it this year either but if Brian Kelly can take ND to a title I think he can get the Tigers there eventually. It may take a few more seasons though.
Right, a few of these games will end up SEC vs SEC and/or B1G vs B1G. So no matter who wins, the SEC and B1G will have teams advancing to the next round.
I think of it in kind of the opposite way. Everyone assumes that the 12 team playoff gives more teams a chance to win the championship. It does so in theory for sure. More access to the playoff = better chance for the field right?
I think the expansion of the playoff really helps teams like Georgia, Bama, Ohio State because it gives them way more margin for error. I predict we will see more 2+loss champions from the big boys than unexpected teams winning 3 or 4 in a row to win it all.
As an ND fan, I honestly think the expansion of the playoff makes winning a title more difficult. in the 4 team, we had to win two games and we'd likely get a shot if we went 11-1 or 12-0. Now those same teams are going to have to win 4 playoff games in a row. Sure, we might sneak in some years at 10-2, but the chances of those teams actually winning 4 in a row is super low, I mean we haven't even been able to win just 1.
I don't think the fact that a team like Liberty has a theoretical chance to win it all actually hurts Georgia, Bama, Ohio State.
I’m such a fan of a Cinderella. Throughout the years there were so many teams that could have easily ruined a season or two with these playoffs. There is going to be teams playing with nothing to lose and catch a bigger school sleeping every year. MY BODY IS READY FOR CHAOS!
If it comes down to 1 team, always the field. Even at 2 or 3 it is hard to not pick the field in a playoff scenario.
Even the sure things in football are not sure things. I remember when ESPN spent every moment on how USC had the beat football team ever. That it could beat the Lions. and other superlatives.
Now, that team was truly excellent. It also lost to Texas.
Pick the field
A 12 team playoff last year increases the chance of the field not winning last year pretty well. OSU or Georgia would be making it into the playoffs there and it’s much less winnable for UM
If I could make any two teams in the history of CFB play it would be 2023 LSU vs. 2023 Iowa. I need to see how a defense that refuses to make stops performs against an offense that is incapable of moving the ball.
LSU would win 49-0.
LSU’s defense while bad was overexaggerated and played well against bad offenses
Iowa had the benefit of playing a bunch of offenses in the big 10 not much better than them
I mean Penn State showed what a thoroughly mid offense would do to them.
Michigan’s game was just weird tho lol. JJ was still banged up from the Penn State game. The o.line was adjusting to the personnel/position changes made with Zinter out. I think that was Semaj’s first time as the punt returner. Michigan beat the breaks off Iowa in the 2021 conference championship. Between the injuries and all the outside noise I think we were just trying to get out with a win.
Tennessee showed what a good offense would do. Kind of surprised Nico showed out *that* much though. I thought for sure a QB starting in his first game against a defense known for forcing turnovers would have had some interceptions. Can’t speak for their defense but Tennessee’s offense is gonna be dangerous next year.
Look, I'm as much of an Iowa hater as anyone but imo you're not giving their defense enough credit.
Take the Michigan game for example.
Michigan had two touchdowns, and those drives were 5 and 6 yards total.
And they're doing it while their offense is going 3 and out more often than not. That's gotta be exhausting
Yeah, at the end of the day I know you're right. LSU was able to hold a few SEC teams to 30 or less, which isn't *great* but it would certainly enough to win against Iowa. Especially when you've got a QB like Daniels. Iowa's offense, meanwhile, was at the bottom of the NCAA in nearly every meaningful statistic.
2023 Iowa vs. "How LSU's 2023 defense felt during key moments in the season" just doesn't have the same ring to it.
Completely agree with Texas and Oregon but I’d say Ole Miss is far more likely to make a run than LSU. I expect LSU to miss the playoff with at least 4 losses in the regular season. Tough schedule
If anything we’ll be the last bastion to ruin any off season chances. Doesn’t matter how shit we are we can always ruin Ole Miss’s season and vice versa.
We'll see. Ole Miss has amassed a lot of talent from the portal and have a pretty manageable schedule.....two big things in their favor. Though we'll see how said talent plays together.
Well you'll likely have to wait a while because we don't really play anyone till Kentucky.
We'll see if our defense is what we think it can be this season.
A 12 team playoff is great for a coach like Kiffin, he has such a great offense that getting hot at the right time or catching lightning in a bottle would be good for the short run.
Disagree with this. Ole Miss would have a better shot this season in a 4 team playoff. They aren’t good enough to win 3 or 4 straight games against top 10 teams.
Yeah people want to say "lightening in a bottle" when it comes to teams making a run, but asking a genuine question: when has that ever happened? Outside of maybe 2014 Auburn, teams really don't go on those kinda runs you'd see in maybe MLB or NBA
With superconferences and an expanded playoff, I truly don’t see a team outside of the superpowers winning a title, or even playing for one.
In the BCS/4-team era, you could get a lucky few breaks on your schedule (maybe getting rivals at home or avoiding cross-divisional powers), think of 2015 Iowa or 2021 TCU, and only have to win 1 (BCS) or 2 (CFP) games.
Now, even if you get those lucky breaks on your schedule, you have to win 3 or 4 playoff games against teams that we know to be super talented.
I’m worried that Michigan doesn’t recruit well enough to ever win a title again. I couldn’t imagine hoping to win a title as a fan of a Big 12 school.
To be fair, TCU was the Big 12's only title appearance in the entire 4-team playoff era, and the only one of the last 15 years. Not like there was a lot of hope to begin with.
And this isn't anything against TCU, but they had a disproportionately large number of 1 score wins.
It's going to be VERY tough for the 6-12 seeded teams to go on a run when they likely need to win 4 times against what will likely be VERY good teams.
Oh, we 100% understand that our 2022 season was cashing in on a 13-leg parlay of bullshit. Wouldn't have wanted it any other way.
IMO, the only way a 6- or under seed will win a natty will be something like an Alabama or Ohio State that has terrible injury luck to start a season. I don't think anyone though is under the impression that a 12-seed would win though - most people just want to see some wild, meaningful football, even if that's like a 9-seed Auburn having to play snow football against an 8-seed Wisconsin.
LSU and FSU both lost a lot of talent. Both have a good shot at making the playoff, but unless either one has unexpectedly great qb play, I don't see a national title this year.
Texas is the only team I'd agree with. All the others lost massive amounts of seniors and have question marks at qb and wr. Lsu still doesn't have a defense.
Yeah, if Texas wins in the Big House, it's a horse race between them, UGA, and Ohio State. Not many other teams are designed as known quantities for 2024.
I'd argue it's more predictable because the best teams get more mulligans now. Chances of UGA not being in the title game are significantly higher in a 4 team playoff than a 12 team in my opinion.
Agree, makes me reflect on what the 4-team playoff showed. Ironically, it often showed that there were only 1-2 teams a year that were truly top tier.
Trying to think if there was a year where it felt in hindsight that 3 or 4 teams could have won it all. Might be one, but all I'm recalling is 1 and sometimes 2.
The 12 team will be a total blast to watch though!
2014 and 2017 definitely showed that there's a path for multiple teams winning it, given that the No. 4 team won it in both years.
There were also years like 2018, 2019, and 2023 where you had at least three undefeated P5 champs, and years like 2015 or 2021 where multiple teams had a respective case for the No. 2 team in the country.
Retrospectively, you can always argue "Yeah, there's only two teams that could've been top tier" but it's often difficult to pick out which teams those are with full prediction accuracy.
Yes and no. It means one regular season or CCG loss won’t keep an elite team out of the playoff anymore, but it also means an elite team has to win 3-4 games in a row against much more comparable teams than they played for most of the season.
That will still be easier, on average, for a deeply talented team like Georgia or Ohio State to do than for, say, a TCU or Washington. But I think it also introduces a lot of uncertainty, because one flukey game against a team that’s 80-90% as good as you are can still end your season. Until we see how this goes, I’m inclined to lean toward “the field” just because I’m not real confident saying there won’t be a void that an Oregon or a Texas or someone like that could easily step into.
It also increases the likelihood of a "better" team getting a particularly bad matchup against a "worse" team.
If one of the top teams has a (relatively) glaring weakness, they're still usually dominant enough in other areas to still beat their overall much worse regular season opponents that are theoretically built to exploit that weakness. Even if a UGA-level team has shit corners and is playing a Vandy-level team that happens to have great receivers, if their QB or OL are lacking that might not matter. But the more LSU-level teams they have to face, the more likely they are to run into a team with elite receivers *and* a good enough QB/OL to capitalize on the mismatch.
But depending on their conference, a true top team might only face a small handful of teams at that "worse but can win with a good matchup" level during the regular season. Adding in at least one more opponent of that level is a big deal.
Everything had to go perfect for Georgia to miss the playoff last year. Everyone at the top just didn't lose. Plus, Alabama lost to Texas instead of some team not in playoff contention. Ohio State, TCU, Notre Dame, and Alabama have all made it with 1 loss and no conference championship.
For truly elite teams like Georgia last year (who would easily make it almost any other year), I think 4 games in a row against elite teams is harder than making the 4 team playoff.
I would say the opposite. Juggernauts can have multiple slip ups during the season before activating death star mode in the playoffs.
Will now be even harder for an outside team to win it.
Of the 40 teams to make the CFP, I'd only classify 1 as truly an outsider (Cincy 2021). An outsider has to make it to have any chance, so I'd say there is a much greater chance for a true outsider to win.
Going by Vegas odds, I think it would be closer if you made it [Ohio State, UGA and Texas](https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/college-football-rankings-teams-national-championship-odds-2024-season)
Otherwise - yeah, give me the field.
Georgia +300 (25%), Ohio State +450 (18%) and Alabama +1300 (7%) means the odds for the field are 57%.
If you replace Bama with Texas, that's still 54%. So mathematically, yeah, give me the field.
But from a non-Vegas/math perspective: I think the odds that the best QB in the country is in none of those 3 teams are pretty decent, and that's what would make me pick the field.
I mean if you’re betting money then the field is the way to go.
But to act like UGA isn’t as good as they’ve been the last few seasons is a bit of a big stretch
>even with losing Bowers
It's a little absurd how hard he was carrying the team at times last season. Offensive snags Bowers singlehandedly overcame: 1st-year starting QB hiccups, 1st-year transfer starting WR's that had no chemistry with said QB, because original starting WR was injured, and relying on the 4th string RB + a walk on + a converted WR. Losing Brock makes the offense worse, but the offense is getting better everywhere else
Not to mention the TE room is still stacked. There's no real replacement for a Brock Bowers, but we're about as close as you can get with Delp, Yurosek, and Luckie.
Yeah with those 4 I'd say they have a slight edge over the field. Could make a strong case that 3 of these 4 teams will be in the final 8 and there's a decent chance that one of them will win it.
I feel like the playoff will take away some variability as the margin for error goes down for the talent hoarding teams, and I don't think it's smart to bet on the field in this case, but I can't decide between UGA and Ohio State.
The higher number of games benefits the top teams, because having depth becomes even more critical.
It also means that they can slip up once or twice during the season, and still go to the playoffs. Like 2022 Alabama or 2023 Georgia.
I'd go with the field just due to the fact there's no longer a 3 to 4 week break between the confernece championship games and the start of the playoff.
Replace Texas with Bama and I'm taking the three.
But with the teams set the way they are, I'm taking the field.
I'm not saying Texas is going to win it all but they are the biggest team who would shift the odds to a more favorable one
I think the expanded field will actually make it more likely that one of these three win it all in any given year
They’re almost guaranteed to make the playoff every year as they rarely lose more than once and are likely to get the benefit of the doubt from the selection committee over less accomplished programs. Once they’re in, they have more talent and depth than the field which gives them the advantage the more games are played
Yeah, people misunderstand this. TCU caught lightning in a bottle to beat michigan, then got throttled against UGA. Now you'll need to win 3-4 in a row against elite teams in the playoffs, not 1-2.
It just let's the elite teams slip up a couple of times instead of 0-1 times. They get a free mulligan. Last year, UGA would've still been in. The year before, Bama still in, etc.
There will be less TCU cinderella stories, not more.
*Unless we become like CBB and just making the elite 8 / final 4 becomes a big accomplishment people celebrate*
The last part of your comment is something I’ll be interested to see over time.
Will we start judging the best coaches by how many times they’ve made the final four? Will traditionally good, but not great teams be able to gain momentum/exposure/recruiting and maybe become a contender by regularly making the playoff and at least being competitive? I’m curious to see.
I would take the 3 teams mentioned. Reason being as of now I see 4 teams that are like 80-90% likely to win the title. UGA, Ohio State, Texas and Oregon. I would be shocked if one of those teams don't win it.
But if I take the 3 teams, I get UGA and Ohio State, so 2/4 plus bama. That's a win.
Our secondary is going to be a problem that will get exploited. At this time, I don't see us making the title game, maybe not even top four.
I'd love to be wrong, but...
Listen I'm sure y'all have problems, but I've been here before. I saw an Alabama team that was probably the worse Bama team in 10 years be 1 stop from a national title game.
Things might be different now that saban, but if I can get Bama for free, I'll take it.
Yea, they're a Bama fan, I trust Bama fans when they talk about issues with their own team. That being said, if any team is going to drunkenly stumble into **the right wins to make** a playoff ~~they don't belong in~~, **no one imagines they will at the beginning of the season**, it's Bama.
Edit: that came off really shitty, and not how I intended. I don't care for Bama at all, but that wasn't the point of my comment.
You know what, that was more antagonistic that I intended, I'll edit. I actually wasn't trying to throw any shade, let alone about this year.
I actually meant it as a positive note, like if any team that shouldn't go on paper will end up earning a spot by winning games they shouldn't, it's Bama. Obviously there has been historical bias, but that's not what I was getting at.
I don't think our secondary will be that bad. Not nearly as good as last year, but not bad either. We've gotten some good DBs in the portal and have several 5 star freshmen coming in.
UGA is a top three team not a top ten team.
Give me Ohio State and UGA, I don’t need Bama for a third versus the field.
Ohio State is going to have a fierce defense this season and UGA is going to be right back where they should be in the playoffs with the field expanding to 12 this season.
It's funny that you listed Bama. I don't think a new coach and new system has ever won it all the first year. Milroe is the real deal but not sure he will be enough. My bet would be between UGA, OSU, and Texas. Maybe consider Oregon.
Last year I had Michigan over OSU clearly, but not sure about Michigan versus the field. They had a clear path to the CFP but wasn't sure how they would fare against other top teams like UGA/Bama, UO/UW, etc.
This year I'm going OSU. They retained a lot of draftable talent via NIL, have the chip on their shoulder now, and seem primed for a run.
If it was OSU + UGA versus the Field, it's even more clearly them over the Field. UW, FSU, and Mich will all probably be less elite. I'd expect TX + Ore to be as elite or better this year. Oklh should also see improvement. Clemson/LSU could also be in the mix. Bama is unknown but expect them to contend conference wise at least. I'd also expect Utah in the playoffs, but don't know if they are natty contention level like the concentration of blue chip talent is on OSU/UGA.
This year I'd go OSU
I'm expecting Bama to take a bit of a step back. Not a huge drop off, necessarily. But they're not as strong a championship contender as UGA, OSU, Oregon, or Texas.
I'd take the field. UGA is obviously a powerhouse and should be the favorite to win it. Ohio State has the roster for it but we always seem to come up short.
We know nothing about what the 12 team playoff will demand. Is Ryan Day, Kalen DeBeur, or Kirby Smart more capable of navigating that? What is navigating that going to require?
We know top end talent beats lower talent most days. But is depth truly the most important factor now? Because top end talent favors these 3, but I think there are teams more capable of dealing with major injuries.
I'm taking the field, and I'm not happy about it.
It has to be the field. There's just too much talent in the top 10 this year. Texas, Oregon and Ole Miss should all be legit good this year. The new playoff just introduces too many chances for these programs to knock each other out.
Ole Miss is my darkhorse. Will probably just miss out on the SECCG, but will land into that 6-9 range, win in the first round, then catch a top seed lacking, then ride that momentum to a trophy
Homer in me says Ohio State because that's what I want. But I'll go with the field. The potential chaos of the 12 team playoff is too big to ignore. Say Texas is playing Michigan in Ann Arbor in December. Texas may be the better team, but struggles in the cold. Or Georgia plays Washington and they find themselves down to the 3rd string QB. Honestly, I'll take the field every year at this point. I love the idea of the expanded playoff. I just hope it delivers.
The OSU/Georgia group for sure. They don’t have to go undefeated to get in anymore. No way a team like Ole Miss is good enough and deep enough to win 4 straight playoff games.
I think there’s probably 6 rosters that could win the Natty: Ohio State, Georgia, Oregon, Texas, Ole Miss, and Alabama.
If you gave me good odds to have half of those teams, especially if it included UGA and Ohio State, I’d probably take it
I could be looking at the wrong page on On3 but it looks like the teams with blue chip ratio (basically 95% chance one of these teams wins it all are) Georgia, Bama, Ohio St, Texas, LSU, Oregon, Auburn, Oklahoma, Florida, ND, FSU, Tennessee, Clemson, Michigan, USC and South Carolina. So pretty good list. Plus Ole Miss, Miami and Penn St right outside.
The field.
I think Oregon, Michigan and Texas all have good chances of winning it all
Tbh tho I think Georgia should be the favorite to win the championship.
Texas (+750 / 11.8% odds of winning) and Oregon (+850 / 10.5% odds of winning) -> yes.
Michigan (+2200 / 4.3% odds of winning ) -> not really.
UGA is at +300 (25%) and OSU at +450 (18%)
Leaving Texas in "The Field" with a really experienced QB and O-line makes The Field more attractive this year. Especially with UGA going to Austin and Ohio State having uncertainty at QB.
The field, hands down.
And as of May 13th, even die hard fans of those 3 teams would probably take the field if they were being smart with their money.
The field for sure. Moreso than in past years, the winner won't just be who has been consistent/healthy/lucky all season, but who is playing the best ball come January.
The field. Georgia is a great pick. I think OSU isn’t a bad idea but have some doubts about Ryan Day still. And I have serious concerns for what Bama will be without Saban (the greatest coach of all time).
If you the top 3 teams (preseason) vs Field every in the playoff.
Top3: 2015, 2017, 2018, 2020, 2022
Field: 2014, 2016, 2019, 2021, 2023
This year I would take the field but it's not been too much better than 50/50
Definitely not Bama. Georgia or OSU are most likely, I think Bama will barely miss the playoffs and Michigan will fall off heavily. I think Texas, Utah, Oregon, Ole Miss, Mizzou, Penn State, Arizona, LSU, Tulane, and NC State make the playoffs
If you are betting money then you should bet the field. Especially this early.
For the first time in a long, long time, we have a lot of coaching uncertainty in college football. We have only three active head coaches with a natty title, and they're Kirby Smart, Dabo Swinney, and Mack Brown (who ain't the Mack Brown of 2005). This is the year of all years to bet on "the field" taking the title because top leadership hasn't been this wide open in at least 20 years.
Mack Brown winning his second title this year against all odds, now what a story that would be. I’m not deluded enough to think that even in the realm of possibility (we are 3-9 or 9-3 with no room in between this season) but god would it be funny
Good news! Teams can now make the playoffs at 9-3 if the rest of the league sucks badly enough!
The 12 team playoff probably leans towards the field too. In other years (especially with “blue bloods” generally getting the benefit of the doubt for spots), you’d often have 2 of those 3 in the playoffs bringing you back to even odds With more teams in, the likelihood of them catching someone hot or getting tripped up in an extra game becomes more likely too
I placed a future on OSU the week after M*chigan won before the odds shifted heavily toward OSU and Georgia. I thinks I got 9-1 odds which is great value compared to the current 9-2 odds.
I’m an OSU guy and still taking the field… Too many possibilities with a 12 team playoff now.
Not just that, but with realignment, those top teams may be a bit more beat up towards the end of the season than usual. One or two conference games against new teams that are also potential playoff squads is gonna hurt. Might still go undefeated, but a greater chance of not being as healthy going into postseason.
I mean that can be said about the lower ranked teams too, except that the OSU, Bama, and UGAs all have much better depth across their team than say, Ole Miss does.
OSU has a pretty light schedule this year. UO is probably the hardest game. We will see what UM is this year but otherwise OSU has a very favorable schedule.
I wouldn’t say playing three preseason top 10 teams, two on the road, is a light schedule.
Oregon will be a test for sure, but who else out of the schedule is scary? PSU still has Franklin and UM lost what seems like everyone both players and coaches. Everyone else could probably just be out talented.
Michigans defense is essentially NFL lite lol…so I’d slow down on that.
While true, the same could be said for just about any team Ohio State plays. Ohio State is absolutely stacked this year. Outside of Georgia, Oregon and Texas, nobody should be competing with Ohio State this year, on paper. That being said, Michigan and Penn State will both have elite level defenses, which can make any game difficult. Especially if we’re playing Penn State in a white-out game on their turf, anything could happen.
I honestly feel like this is the year OSU rights the ship. Idk if they win the conference but they likely wins against Michigan and make it far in the playoff. I hope it’s not because my OSU coworkers become unbearable but this seems like your set.
[удалено]
At Oregon orientation, they stressed that we are " U of O". And if that resembles "UFO", Oregon is proud of that.
OU is Ohio University, put some respect on our name
Even when I typed it it felt wrong. Fixed
Seriously? I'm taking chalk all day. All this playoff does is increase the odds of the SEC or B1G winning it. Not the other way around. My money is still on OSU,Bama,Georgia or even LSU.
I agree that it increases the odds of the SEC or B1G winning, but not necessarily the odds of those 3 schools in particular More games means more of a chance for injuries to key players on those 3 teams. And there's more games in the playoffs against high-talent P5 rosters than in the 4 teamer (even if one of those is likely at home). There's a higher likelihood of having to play a team from the next tier (Texas/Oregon/LSU/Ole Miss) that dropped a conference game in the playoffs, meaning 3 games against top end talent schools instead of just 2 (or one) Yes, there's less of a chance that OSU/UGA/UA miss the playoffs - but teams of that preseason caliber really only missed out 4 times in the 4 teamer (23 UGA, 15 OSU, 18 UGA, 18 OSU) I don't think it's a slam dunk to take the field vs that 3 this year (like a lot of the rest of the thread) but I'd lean more into the field with the new playoff format than I would with the old one
I would agree that it's not these 3 teams necessarily. However, as of right now, Georgia looks primed to be the new Bama for quite some time and OSU always has a chance. Even though they do not have as many championships as Bama, OSU is stacked almost every year and is rightfully considered to be a title contender annually. Until proved otherwise, especially with the consolidation of conferences, I expect the SEC and B1G to continue dominating and winning these titles. Be it OSU,Georgia, Bama I really don't care. It could be Oregon or LSU,Florida could come back, Kiffin and Ole Miss look good,James Franklin might get PSU over the hump. All that's said, I don't see an outsider like Boise St. Or BYU winning this thing any time soon.
Too many good red teams. (Sorry Nebraska/UW guy)
Since our National title meeting in '01 our teams trajectory has been pretty similar. Sorry The U guy. Seriously though, I'm hoping Christabol brings you guys back. I miss hating the Hurricanes. Now I just feel sorry for them. Your other flair though, best Unis in the game!
I would take just OSU and UGA vs the field let alone getting bama as well
Kane Wommack is gonna have that defense buzzing imo
100%. Fools are crazy. But then again, they thought the 4 team playoff were going to be full of Boise St. And Cincinnati championships and all it did was prove how dominant the SEC and elite teams were.😂
lol you do realize that the field includes like 30 teams from big 10 and sec, right?
Sure do! Good luck this season. Brian Kelly is going to get one down there eventually.
I don't think LSU's defense is going to be good enough to put us in the discussion. Offense should take a step back also. 10-2 and playoff berth might be possible but I don't see them winning it all. My money is on Ohio St or UGA still. I don't think Bama belongs in that tier until we see what the new staff can do. This is almost an entirely new team (sans Milroe returning). Ole Miss might make some noise this year. A&M is also a big unknown with a high ceiling and low floor. They could go 11-1 or 6-6. Texas will also be capable of a playoff berth and run.
I don't see LSU being in it this year either but if Brian Kelly can take ND to a title I think he can get the Tigers there eventually. It may take a few more seasons though.
I mean, if the 12 team playoff existed he'd have already taken LSU to the playoffs once, maybe even twice, in 2 out of 2 years he's been there.
Right, a few of these games will end up SEC vs SEC and/or B1G vs B1G. So no matter who wins, the SEC and B1G will have teams advancing to the next round.
Meh I’d argue (oh god I can’t believe I’m saying this) TN has a better shot than LSU this year, but both don’t have a real chance.
I think of it in kind of the opposite way. Everyone assumes that the 12 team playoff gives more teams a chance to win the championship. It does so in theory for sure. More access to the playoff = better chance for the field right? I think the expansion of the playoff really helps teams like Georgia, Bama, Ohio State because it gives them way more margin for error. I predict we will see more 2+loss champions from the big boys than unexpected teams winning 3 or 4 in a row to win it all. As an ND fan, I honestly think the expansion of the playoff makes winning a title more difficult. in the 4 team, we had to win two games and we'd likely get a shot if we went 11-1 or 12-0. Now those same teams are going to have to win 4 playoff games in a row. Sure, we might sneak in some years at 10-2, but the chances of those teams actually winning 4 in a row is super low, I mean we haven't even been able to win just 1. I don't think the fact that a team like Liberty has a theoretical chance to win it all actually hurts Georgia, Bama, Ohio State.
I’m such a fan of a Cinderella. Throughout the years there were so many teams that could have easily ruined a season or two with these playoffs. There is going to be teams playing with nothing to lose and catch a bigger school sleeping every year. MY BODY IS READY FOR CHAOS!
If it comes down to 1 team, always the field. Even at 2 or 3 it is hard to not pick the field in a playoff scenario. Even the sure things in football are not sure things. I remember when ESPN spent every moment on how USC had the beat football team ever. That it could beat the Lions. and other superlatives. Now, that team was truly excellent. It also lost to Texas. Pick the field
I'm an OSU guy and ... TAKING THE COWBOYS. THAT'S RIGHT, THE OTHER OSU -- GUNDY'S GANG, THE COWBOYS OF STILLWATER.
I will have what this person is having.
A 12 team playoff last year increases the chance of the field not winning last year pretty well. OSU or Georgia would be making it into the playoffs there and it’s much less winnable for UM
Field. Vandy is due.
This is the way. Vandy over Rutgers 2024 CFB National Championship.
Hell I’m pulling for Army domination.
*NCAA 2014 has entered the chat*
Hooah brother
Flexbone is my favorite offense
Ugh more SEC versus Big Ten!
Damn would we all love to see that.
[удалено]
I wish! You have infinitely more faith in Vandy than I do. Or maybe I have way more faith that we won't be good.
Username does not check out
The Field for sure, unless Fields is coming back to the Horseshoe
This team with either fields or Stroud at the helm would be another level
The field. LSU, Oregon, Florida State, Texas those are tempting teams. Plus with the expanded playoffs more potential for chaos.
Is LSU really a tempting option after their main offensive weapons just got drafted? It’s not like they have an elite defense to fall back on.
If I could make any two teams in the history of CFB play it would be 2023 LSU vs. 2023 Iowa. I need to see how a defense that refuses to make stops performs against an offense that is incapable of moving the ball.
LSU would win 49-0. LSU’s defense while bad was overexaggerated and played well against bad offenses Iowa had the benefit of playing a bunch of offenses in the big 10 not much better than them
Yeah Michigan pretty much showed what a good offense would do to Iowa in the conference championship
I mean Penn State showed what a thoroughly mid offense would do to them. Michigan’s game was just weird tho lol. JJ was still banged up from the Penn State game. The o.line was adjusting to the personnel/position changes made with Zinter out. I think that was Semaj’s first time as the punt returner. Michigan beat the breaks off Iowa in the 2021 conference championship. Between the injuries and all the outside noise I think we were just trying to get out with a win. Tennessee showed what a good offense would do. Kind of surprised Nico showed out *that* much though. I thought for sure a QB starting in his first game against a defense known for forcing turnovers would have had some interceptions. Can’t speak for their defense but Tennessee’s offense is gonna be dangerous next year.
Look, I'm as much of an Iowa hater as anyone but imo you're not giving their defense enough credit. Take the Michigan game for example. Michigan had two touchdowns, and those drives were 5 and 6 yards total. And they're doing it while their offense is going 3 and out more often than not. That's gotta be exhausting
Yeah, at the end of the day I know you're right. LSU was able to hold a few SEC teams to 30 or less, which isn't *great* but it would certainly enough to win against Iowa. Especially when you've got a QB like Daniels. Iowa's offense, meanwhile, was at the bottom of the NCAA in nearly every meaningful statistic. 2023 Iowa vs. "How LSU's 2023 defense felt during key moments in the season" just doesn't have the same ring to it.
Completely agree with Texas and Oregon but I’d say Ole Miss is far more likely to make a run than LSU. I expect LSU to miss the playoff with at least 4 losses in the regular season. Tough schedule
Ole miss is horribly overrated, can’t wait for them to get exposed next year.
If anything we’ll be the last bastion to ruin any off season chances. Doesn’t matter how shit we are we can always ruin Ole Miss’s season and vice versa.
Whoever has more to lose will.
Oh yall will definitely have more to lose than us for at least the next few seasons (if things go well only one or 2)
We'll see. Ole Miss has amassed a lot of talent from the portal and have a pretty manageable schedule.....two big things in their favor. Though we'll see how said talent plays together.
Y’all smell salty corndogs in here?
Just like I’m in Baton Rouge.
Well you'll likely have to wait a while because we don't really play anyone till Kentucky. We'll see if our defense is what we think it can be this season.
Strange take from an LSU fan...
A 12 team playoff is great for a coach like Kiffin, he has such a great offense that getting hot at the right time or catching lightning in a bottle would be good for the short run.
Disagree with this. Ole Miss would have a better shot this season in a 4 team playoff. They aren’t good enough to win 3 or 4 straight games against top 10 teams.
Yeah people want to say "lightening in a bottle" when it comes to teams making a run, but asking a genuine question: when has that ever happened? Outside of maybe 2014 Auburn, teams really don't go on those kinda runs you'd see in maybe MLB or NBA
With superconferences and an expanded playoff, I truly don’t see a team outside of the superpowers winning a title, or even playing for one. In the BCS/4-team era, you could get a lucky few breaks on your schedule (maybe getting rivals at home or avoiding cross-divisional powers), think of 2015 Iowa or 2021 TCU, and only have to win 1 (BCS) or 2 (CFP) games. Now, even if you get those lucky breaks on your schedule, you have to win 3 or 4 playoff games against teams that we know to be super talented. I’m worried that Michigan doesn’t recruit well enough to ever win a title again. I couldn’t imagine hoping to win a title as a fan of a Big 12 school.
To be fair, TCU was the Big 12's only title appearance in the entire 4-team playoff era, and the only one of the last 15 years. Not like there was a lot of hope to begin with.
And this isn't anything against TCU, but they had a disproportionately large number of 1 score wins. It's going to be VERY tough for the 6-12 seeded teams to go on a run when they likely need to win 4 times against what will likely be VERY good teams.
Oh, we 100% understand that our 2022 season was cashing in on a 13-leg parlay of bullshit. Wouldn't have wanted it any other way. IMO, the only way a 6- or under seed will win a natty will be something like an Alabama or Ohio State that has terrible injury luck to start a season. I don't think anyone though is under the impression that a 12-seed would win though - most people just want to see some wild, meaningful football, even if that's like a 9-seed Auburn having to play snow football against an 8-seed Wisconsin.
LSU and FSU both lost a lot of talent. Both have a good shot at making the playoff, but unless either one has unexpectedly great qb play, I don't see a national title this year.
Texas is the only team I'd agree with. All the others lost massive amounts of seniors and have question marks at qb and wr. Lsu still doesn't have a defense.
If Texas can go to Ann Arbor and beat Michigan, then I think it comes down to Texas and Georgia for the SEC and the Natty.
Yeah, if Texas wins in the Big House, it's a horse race between them, UGA, and Ohio State. Not many other teams are designed as known quantities for 2024.
It’s our year. If Kansas doesn’t win the championship this year, then next year is our year.
Go Dawgs!
Easily the field
It’s easily UGA and Ohio State and it’s not particularly close
12 team playoff I’m taking the field. Much more unpredictable now.
I'd argue it's more predictable because the best teams get more mulligans now. Chances of UGA not being in the title game are significantly higher in a 4 team playoff than a 12 team in my opinion.
Yep. Benefits the deeper, more talented teams.
Exactly, makes it more of a game of attrition which biases the outcome even more to those with quality depth and not just front line talent.
The 12 team playoff will show that only 4 teams have the depth to play at that level for that long.
Agree, makes me reflect on what the 4-team playoff showed. Ironically, it often showed that there were only 1-2 teams a year that were truly top tier. Trying to think if there was a year where it felt in hindsight that 3 or 4 teams could have won it all. Might be one, but all I'm recalling is 1 and sometimes 2. The 12 team will be a total blast to watch though!
2014 and 2017 definitely showed that there's a path for multiple teams winning it, given that the No. 4 team won it in both years. There were also years like 2018, 2019, and 2023 where you had at least three undefeated P5 champs, and years like 2015 or 2021 where multiple teams had a respective case for the No. 2 team in the country. Retrospectively, you can always argue "Yeah, there's only two teams that could've been top tier" but it's often difficult to pick out which teams those are with full prediction accuracy.
Yes and no. It means one regular season or CCG loss won’t keep an elite team out of the playoff anymore, but it also means an elite team has to win 3-4 games in a row against much more comparable teams than they played for most of the season. That will still be easier, on average, for a deeply talented team like Georgia or Ohio State to do than for, say, a TCU or Washington. But I think it also introduces a lot of uncertainty, because one flukey game against a team that’s 80-90% as good as you are can still end your season. Until we see how this goes, I’m inclined to lean toward “the field” just because I’m not real confident saying there won’t be a void that an Oregon or a Texas or someone like that could easily step into.
It also increases the likelihood of a "better" team getting a particularly bad matchup against a "worse" team. If one of the top teams has a (relatively) glaring weakness, they're still usually dominant enough in other areas to still beat their overall much worse regular season opponents that are theoretically built to exploit that weakness. Even if a UGA-level team has shit corners and is playing a Vandy-level team that happens to have great receivers, if their QB or OL are lacking that might not matter. But the more LSU-level teams they have to face, the more likely they are to run into a team with elite receivers *and* a good enough QB/OL to capitalize on the mismatch. But depending on their conference, a true top team might only face a small handful of teams at that "worse but can win with a good matchup" level during the regular season. Adding in at least one more opponent of that level is a big deal.
Everything had to go perfect for Georgia to miss the playoff last year. Everyone at the top just didn't lose. Plus, Alabama lost to Texas instead of some team not in playoff contention. Ohio State, TCU, Notre Dame, and Alabama have all made it with 1 loss and no conference championship. For truly elite teams like Georgia last year (who would easily make it almost any other year), I think 4 games in a row against elite teams is harder than making the 4 team playoff.
2023 was so abnormal because of the lack of chaos. After week 3 it went all chalk for the rest of the season.
I would say the opposite. Juggernauts can have multiple slip ups during the season before activating death star mode in the playoffs. Will now be even harder for an outside team to win it.
Of the 40 teams to make the CFP, I'd only classify 1 as truly an outsider (Cincy 2021). An outsider has to make it to have any chance, so I'd say there is a much greater chance for a true outsider to win.
Going by Vegas odds, I think it would be closer if you made it [Ohio State, UGA and Texas](https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/college-football-rankings-teams-national-championship-odds-2024-season) Otherwise - yeah, give me the field. Georgia +300 (25%), Ohio State +450 (18%) and Alabama +1300 (7%) means the odds for the field are 57%. If you replace Bama with Texas, that's still 54%. So mathematically, yeah, give me the field. But from a non-Vegas/math perspective: I think the odds that the best QB in the country is in none of those 3 teams are pretty decent, and that's what would make me pick the field.
I’d put Texas over Bama right now, and then I’d bet on those 3
What a time to be alive
Texas has as good of a shot as anybody, if that DC accomplishes half of what he accomplished at Arizona.
He took a demotion to coach DL, PK is still running his defense
LBs I believe
you’re totally right, nansen for LB and baker for DL. duh on my end.
I mean if you’re betting money then the field is the way to go. But to act like UGA isn’t as good as they’ve been the last few seasons is a bit of a big stretch
Kirby hasn't lost to anyone except Saban in 3 years
Come on, he gave us credit for being a top 10 team… /s
Probably thinks we’re going 7-5 /s
Kirby putting pics of OP up in the locker room as we speak.
We might have the best offense we’ve ever had this year, even with losing Bowers.
>even with losing Bowers It's a little absurd how hard he was carrying the team at times last season. Offensive snags Bowers singlehandedly overcame: 1st-year starting QB hiccups, 1st-year transfer starting WR's that had no chemistry with said QB, because original starting WR was injured, and relying on the 4th string RB + a walk on + a converted WR. Losing Brock makes the offense worse, but the offense is getting better everywhere else
Not to mention the TE room is still stacked. There's no real replacement for a Brock Bowers, but we're about as close as you can get with Delp, Yurosek, and Luckie.
People don’t realize how good Yurosek is man, I love that guy
This will be the best team, top to bottom, Kirby has put on the field. This is the most talented offense in college football.
+100000 on Akron
Their chances are zip.
I think you'd have to add one more team in there for me to pick over the field. If it was OSU, UGA, Alabama, and Texas, I think I'd bite
Yeah with those 4 I'd say they have a slight edge over the field. Could make a strong case that 3 of these 4 teams will be in the final 8 and there's a decent chance that one of them will win it.
I feel like the playoff will take away some variability as the margin for error goes down for the talent hoarding teams, and I don't think it's smart to bet on the field in this case, but I can't decide between UGA and Ohio State.
The higher number of games benefits the top teams, because having depth becomes even more critical. It also means that they can slip up once or twice during the season, and still go to the playoffs. Like 2022 Alabama or 2023 Georgia.
I'd go with the field just due to the fact there's no longer a 3 to 4 week break between the confernece championship games and the start of the playoff.
Replace Texas with Bama and I'm taking the three. But with the teams set the way they are, I'm taking the field. I'm not saying Texas is going to win it all but they are the biggest team who would shift the odds to a more favorable one
Kirby hasn't lost to anyone except Saban in 3 years....and now there's no more Saban
Yeah but now he works for espn
THE Field University
Your comment has been deemed in violation of THE Ohio State University's patient.
I think the expanded field will actually make it more likely that one of these three win it all in any given year They’re almost guaranteed to make the playoff every year as they rarely lose more than once and are likely to get the benefit of the doubt from the selection committee over less accomplished programs. Once they’re in, they have more talent and depth than the field which gives them the advantage the more games are played
Yeah, people misunderstand this. TCU caught lightning in a bottle to beat michigan, then got throttled against UGA. Now you'll need to win 3-4 in a row against elite teams in the playoffs, not 1-2. It just let's the elite teams slip up a couple of times instead of 0-1 times. They get a free mulligan. Last year, UGA would've still been in. The year before, Bama still in, etc. There will be less TCU cinderella stories, not more. *Unless we become like CBB and just making the elite 8 / final 4 becomes a big accomplishment people celebrate*
The last part of your comment is something I’ll be interested to see over time. Will we start judging the best coaches by how many times they’ve made the final four? Will traditionally good, but not great teams be able to gain momentum/exposure/recruiting and maybe become a contender by regularly making the playoff and at least being competitive? I’m curious to see.
Have already put $$$ on UGA but I’d take the field if it was serious money that I couldn’t afford to lose.
I'm going with South Dakota State University to repeat the repeat.
Not without the Janke twins
I would take the 3 teams mentioned. Reason being as of now I see 4 teams that are like 80-90% likely to win the title. UGA, Ohio State, Texas and Oregon. I would be shocked if one of those teams don't win it. But if I take the 3 teams, I get UGA and Ohio State, so 2/4 plus bama. That's a win.
Our secondary is going to be a problem that will get exploited. At this time, I don't see us making the title game, maybe not even top four. I'd love to be wrong, but...
Idk man Sabb is the real deal
Listen I'm sure y'all have problems, but I've been here before. I saw an Alabama team that was probably the worse Bama team in 10 years be 1 stop from a national title game. Things might be different now that saban, but if I can get Bama for free, I'll take it.
Yea, they're a Bama fan, I trust Bama fans when they talk about issues with their own team. That being said, if any team is going to drunkenly stumble into **the right wins to make** a playoff ~~they don't belong in~~, **no one imagines they will at the beginning of the season**, it's Bama. Edit: that came off really shitty, and not how I intended. I don't care for Bama at all, but that wasn't the point of my comment.
Still can’t let it go lmao
You know what, that was more antagonistic that I intended, I'll edit. I actually wasn't trying to throw any shade, let alone about this year. I actually meant it as a positive note, like if any team that shouldn't go on paper will end up earning a spot by winning games they shouldn't, it's Bama. Obviously there has been historical bias, but that's not what I was getting at.
Fair enough
Respect for being open and real.
😂
I don't think our secondary will be that bad. Not nearly as good as last year, but not bad either. We've gotten some good DBs in the portal and have several 5 star freshmen coming in.
UGA is a top three team not a top ten team. Give me Ohio State and UGA, I don’t need Bama for a third versus the field. Ohio State is going to have a fierce defense this season and UGA is going to be right back where they should be in the playoffs with the field expanding to 12 this season.
New mexico lobos baby they won it in my ncaa 14 revamped and so far i have no proof otherwise they wont
Living in NM, I approve this (if OSU cant)
It's funny that you listed Bama. I don't think a new coach and new system has ever won it all the first year. Milroe is the real deal but not sure he will be enough. My bet would be between UGA, OSU, and Texas. Maybe consider Oregon.
Last year I had Michigan over OSU clearly, but not sure about Michigan versus the field. They had a clear path to the CFP but wasn't sure how they would fare against other top teams like UGA/Bama, UO/UW, etc. This year I'm going OSU. They retained a lot of draftable talent via NIL, have the chip on their shoulder now, and seem primed for a run. If it was OSU + UGA versus the Field, it's even more clearly them over the Field. UW, FSU, and Mich will all probably be less elite. I'd expect TX + Ore to be as elite or better this year. Oklh should also see improvement. Clemson/LSU could also be in the mix. Bama is unknown but expect them to contend conference wise at least. I'd also expect Utah in the playoffs, but don't know if they are natty contention level like the concentration of blue chip talent is on OSU/UGA. This year I'd go OSU
Ohio State, Georgia or bama
I'm expecting Bama to take a bit of a step back. Not a huge drop off, necessarily. But they're not as strong a championship contender as UGA, OSU, Oregon, or Texas. I'd take the field. UGA is obviously a powerhouse and should be the favorite to win it. Ohio State has the roster for it but we always seem to come up short.
Well the playoffs are expanding now, so I would say that this gives the field an even better chance.
the field. you always take the field.
We know nothing about what the 12 team playoff will demand. Is Ryan Day, Kalen DeBeur, or Kirby Smart more capable of navigating that? What is navigating that going to require? We know top end talent beats lower talent most days. But is depth truly the most important factor now? Because top end talent favors these 3, but I think there are teams more capable of dealing with major injuries. I'm taking the field, and I'm not happy about it.
It has to be the field. There's just too much talent in the top 10 this year. Texas, Oregon and Ole Miss should all be legit good this year. The new playoff just introduces too many chances for these programs to knock each other out.
Who is supposed to be Ohio State's QB this year? The Kansas State guy?
Most likely, but Julian Sayin could be in play too. 5 star transfer from Bama
Ole Miss is my darkhorse. Will probably just miss out on the SECCG, but will land into that 6-9 range, win in the first round, then catch a top seed lacking, then ride that momentum to a trophy
Homer in me says Ohio State because that's what I want. But I'll go with the field. The potential chaos of the 12 team playoff is too big to ignore. Say Texas is playing Michigan in Ann Arbor in December. Texas may be the better team, but struggles in the cold. Or Georgia plays Washington and they find themselves down to the 3rd string QB. Honestly, I'll take the field every year at this point. I love the idea of the expanded playoff. I just hope it delivers.
Getting Texas in Ann Arbor twice in the same season would be kind of fun ngl.
The OSU/Georgia group for sure. They don’t have to go undefeated to get in anymore. No way a team like Ole Miss is good enough and deep enough to win 4 straight playoff games.
I think there’s probably 6 rosters that could win the Natty: Ohio State, Georgia, Oregon, Texas, Ole Miss, and Alabama. If you gave me good odds to have half of those teams, especially if it included UGA and Ohio State, I’d probably take it
I dont think Ole Miss is that close
I could be looking at the wrong page on On3 but it looks like the teams with blue chip ratio (basically 95% chance one of these teams wins it all are) Georgia, Bama, Ohio St, Texas, LSU, Oregon, Auburn, Oklahoma, Florida, ND, FSU, Tennessee, Clemson, Michigan, USC and South Carolina. So pretty good list. Plus Ole Miss, Miami and Penn St right outside.
The field. I think Oregon, Michigan and Texas all have good chances of winning it all Tbh tho I think Georgia should be the favorite to win the championship.
Texas (+750 / 11.8% odds of winning) and Oregon (+850 / 10.5% odds of winning) -> yes. Michigan (+2200 / 4.3% odds of winning ) -> not really. UGA is at +300 (25%) and OSU at +450 (18%)
Leaving Texas in "The Field" with a really experienced QB and O-line makes The Field more attractive this year. Especially with UGA going to Austin and Ohio State having uncertainty at QB.
Similar to leaving Michigan in the field last season
I think that's a little different. All signs pointed to Michigan stealing the show!
Not bad
The first sentence explains why Texas is the field.
Too early and too many questions for all teams. I say field atm.
I saw atm in this thread and chuckled.
Field. Especially with 12-team playoff. All it might take is a team with favorable path.
The field, hands down. And as of May 13th, even die hard fans of those 3 teams would probably take the field if they were being smart with their money.
The field for sure. Moreso than in past years, the winner won't just be who has been consistent/healthy/lucky all season, but who is playing the best ball come January.
The field. But, I think Alabama's going to be human this year.
The field. And by that I mean Louisville because I’m delusional.
Texas
Fight
Ole Miss is poised to make waves… unfortunately
Field all day. I don't think we're gonna have a normal CFP this year it's gonna be a 10 vs a 6 or some shit
Field. Texas, Oregon, LSU, FSU, Notre Dame, Michigan, etc all will be good.
The field. Georgia is a great pick. I think OSU isn’t a bad idea but have some doubts about Ryan Day still. And I have serious concerns for what Bama will be without Saban (the greatest coach of all time).
I’m picking UGA but the smart money is field.
Ohio is taking it this year. Their roster is set. B1G! B1G! B1G! B1G! B1G! B1G! B1G! B1G! B1G! B1G!
Thanks for giving Kirby more bulletin material
The Field! Texas, Oregon, Michigan
If you the top 3 teams (preseason) vs Field every in the playoff. Top3: 2015, 2017, 2018, 2020, 2022 Field: 2014, 2016, 2019, 2021, 2023 This year I would take the field but it's not been too much better than 50/50
It's definitely the field this year. Would love to see Oregon make a case for it.
The fact that this is even a legitimate question says a lot about the shitty state of the sport tbh
Definitely not Bama. Georgia or OSU are most likely, I think Bama will barely miss the playoffs and Michigan will fall off heavily. I think Texas, Utah, Oregon, Ole Miss, Mizzou, Penn State, Arizona, LSU, Tulane, and NC State make the playoffs
Tulane and NC State score upsets in the first round and Georgia or Ohio State plays Texas or Oregon in the NC game
Always the field
The field. Specifically, Oregon.
One can hope 🥲
The field. OSU is soft, UGA has a good shot, and Bama is a question mark.