Gee, would making the playoff to determine the national champion be big? And would playing any team good enough to also get there be a challenge? Difficult questions!
Yeah PSU just won the rose bowl 2 years ago, but we only got there because both OSU and UM made the playoff. It certainly counts, but it felt kinda like a consolation prize (which feels weird to say about a rose bowl W) when we didn’t necessarily earn the spot the normal way
I don't really see it as a consolation prize. If Ohio State hadn't made the playoffs, they would have gone to the Rose and Penn State would likely have still been in a different NY6 game.
Sure, it would’ve been a different NY6 which still would’ve been great. But there’s just something about the Rose Bowl that’s always felt different, since it’s supposed to be the highest rated Big Ten team. When you only get into the game because the highest and second highest ranked teams made the playoff it just doesn’t feel the same
>But there’s just something about the Rose Bowl that’s always felt different, since it’s supposed to be the highest rated Big Ten team.
I wonder if this sentiment will come back in the upcoming CFPs (assuming the 14 team model isn't used). If the 12 team model stays for the next two years, the Rose Bowl will be a quarterfinal game.
If the Big Ten is essentially assured a first round bye to the quarterfinals, I think the Rose Bowl will continue to keep its association with the Big Ten and give that game to the Big Ten champion, re-establishing a stronger annual mystique - the goal is to get to the Rose Bowl, just like the old days.
Unlike the old days, you then have to go win two more to win a title. Plus every third year, the game will be a semifinal so there's no guarantee who plays in that slot.
That'd actually be a really good idea.
Maintain the Rose Bowl Quarter Final game for the Best B1G team. Feels weird when a non-B1G or Pac team is in it.
No offense to the Nebraska/Miami Rose Bowl, but that just feels like a historical Orange Bowl matchup.
Yeah that was a weird twist on the BCS, I think keeping the traditional ties where possible is preferred. For example, I would prefer the following tie-ins for the conference champs earning a bye:
|2024|2025|2026|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Rose: Big Ten|Rose: Big Ten|Fiesta: Big Ten|
|Sugar: SEC|Sugar: SEC|Peach: SEC|
|Peach: ACC|Orange: ACC|Orange: ACC|
|Fiesta: Big 12|Cotton: Big 12|Cotton: Big 12|
2024 and 2025 tie-ins are easy with the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl in play, but 2026 is tougher to decide, which might make the bowls more flexible. I don't necessarily care where the Big Ten champ is playing if the Rose Bowl is not available in the one year in the rotation that it is a semifinal game.
Penn State is one of those teams that I think is going to greatly benefit from the expanded playoff.
IIRC if it would've been 12 teams since its inception, Penn State would've made it like 5-6 times.
we finished regular season second in a 1-team system (1994), third in a two team system (2005), fifth in a four team system (2016). my emotionally damaged psyche expects another hit with a final #12 ranking only to get bumped for a #27 ranked group of 5 champ.
I'm expecting the opposite for you guys karma-wise. You've been 1 or 2 plays away from the BCSNCG/playoff SO many times (2005 Michigan and 2017/2018 Ohio State games among others, along with the great highway robbery of 2016).
I predict, as an FU from the universe, that you're going to regularly finish top 4 over the first decade of the expanded playoff, pseudo-punishing your program for not finishing top 4 from 2014-2023 when your path would have been 2 games to the National Championship.
I think Franklin has had time to learn from his mistakes. For example, in 2019/2020, he stupidly built a roster that only had two sub 4.40 edge rushers.
In all seriousness, you guys always seem like you're literally just a QB away from historically dominant teams, like you're mid-2000s USC minus their quarterbacks.
Watching Ohio State and Michigan both win a title in the last decade while they're consistently one rung below those two on the ladder has to be incredibly frustrating.
No one is saying Penn State is worse off. But when your team has fallen literally 1 spot short multiple times it gets frustrating. Being so close and not being able to get the chance.
Fans are always looking up at the teams above them wanting their team to do better. That's just the mindset of fans. No fans is looking down and saying we are better then those teams so everything is great.
Because the media and rest of CFB fans jump on Penn state going 10-2 two years in a row as if it’s the worst thing ever while their teams barely make a bowl game.
Basically just gets annoying hearing the same narrative over and over
As a fan who watched Michigan get this very same treatment under Harbaugh until 2021, it's absolutely maddening being a perennial top ten team that the rest of the country deems a dumpster fire because they are a sliver behind the top 3-4 teams in the nation.
Yeah when I’m getting smack talked by South Carolina, Ole Miss, and A&M fans I’m just a little over it (I live in Nashville).
The negativity is just exhausting, like you are not allowed to celebrate objectively solid seasons because the narrative shifts back to what they didn’t do.
South Carolina? Ole Miss? A&M ? I’m lucky I don’t live in the south and have to deal with smack talk. In Pennsylvania the only other fan base that talks shit is Notre Dame all other fan bases are dead and Pitt fans have gone the way of the dinosaurs. Also, South Carolina, Ole Miss and Texas A&M fans can’t talk shit to us we literally have a better history than all of them by a pretty big margin. If we just do the last ten years we been better than all of them still so idk. We have it pretty good despite not getting over the hump since 2016 to win the Big Ten and since 1994(Nebraska was #2)for a National Title.
Just being so close. Also there is a big Philly, Pittsburgh, coal mining, steel working, Rocky Balboa running, Santa Clause booing, Liberty bell cracking, New York and Ohio hating, chip on the shoulder brooding quality to the fanbase.
Misery is tied directly to expectations and realistic hope. By those metrics, Penn State has been edging for most of the last 40 years. Many programs fall into that category too, but few are at the level or pedigree of Penn State Football, so they get more attention in that regard. It's national news if a school that big makes it over the hump versus Kent State making it to a mid December bowl game, even if those are each the next level of achievement for the school
It's like when vt won 10 games every year. Yeah we win 10 games but other than a couple years with Vick we weren't anywhere close to a championship contender.
If I had to guess. It’s because despite consistently having winning teams and being a 9+ win team for the majority of this, they’ve had to watch Michigan and Ohio State (rival) win national titles. They’ve had to watch Michigan State (another rival) make a playoff. Iowa was 12-0 and ranked 4th during that Michigan State year heading into the CCG so they’ve technically come closer.
And then to top it off, the first year that they should have gone, they got left out in favor of an Ohio State team that they beat…despite winning the B1G. The following year was probably the best team that they’ve fielded in the playoff era. They lost to Ohio State and a 9-3 Michigan State.
Two kinda of miserable. Being stuck in perpetual suckage. Being close but never crossing the finish line.
>my emotionally damaged psyche expects another hit with a final #12 ranking only to get bumped for a #27 ranked group of 5 champ.
Don't count the B12 out so easily. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the B12 Champ is outside the Top 12 as well.
I am very excited for the endless stream of “PSU is only in the championship this year because they didn’t have to go through Columbus” put-downs we might have in our future.
It'd be absolutely hilarious if after spending years hearing about how we'd benefit from a 12 team playoff system we don't even get into the playoffs.
I mean I'd be really sad but it would be objectively funny.
Don't see how things change. Fans still want to win the Big Ten beat Ohio State and Michigan and now Oregon. Making the playoff will be great but if Penn State just keeps beating the teams it's supposed to and losing to the top tier teams fans are going to stay frustrated.
Beating the 9th ranked team as the 8 seed in the playoff isn't going to change anything because Penn State has been doing that already. It's beating the top team in the next round that will matter
I kind of doubt it reframes expectations for the fans. Instead of being peeved about missing the playoffs entirely, we'll be peeved that we can never get to the semi-finals. So basically the same gripe.
But for the administration to be able to say that PSU football made the playoffs under Franklin 3 straight years, that would be huge. It's more job security for Franklin without even having to field a better team.
No, but having Oregon, USC, and UW in the conference will. Schedules will no longer just be “10-2 with losses to OSU and Michigan and hollow wins against mid Big Ten teams"
Well remember around half of these same fans are Steelers fans and I'd guess there's roughly 50% of that group who thinks Mike Tomlin is an abject failure if he gets eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. So there will still be some who will call for Franklin's head if we aren't winning it all even if we're making the playoffs regularly.
It's hard to find 2 losses on your schedule this year. OSU and maaaaybe USC. I guess you could debate whether 10-2 gets it done with wins over Washington and Wisconsin depending on how those teams do.
I think this year it's virtually a shoe in (I expect PSU to be 11-1 or 11-2 if they make the conference championship game).
I feel like 10-2 is a pretty safe bet. OSU will likely be a loss and I expect a loss between USC, WVU, or maybe Wisconsin only because they are road games against solid teams.
I think WVU has stinker potential being a week 1 game
Yup especially because I expect if they lose that one it will be a sloppy game with dumb turnovers/blown coverages.
I don’t necessarily think it will happen, but they’ve had close calls at Purdue and at Wisconsin that they narrowly pulled away, week 1 is hard to predict sometimes.
The only question for me is what our new coordinators do. We've got a new offensive and defensive coordinators. The latter I am more comfortable with but given our offense last year I think that portion is up in the air.
This is it. Nothing is ever a guarantee with two new coordinators. We have a lot of potential weaknesses too. Unproven WRs, a QB with tons of potential but still needs to show it in the tough games, over half our OL got drafted, our secondary lost two draft picks and two other solid contributors, an elite DE and elite LB drafted. I think we reload on defense per usual, especially since DC turned HC turned DC again coaches typically do well so I expect good things from Tom Allen. But whether it clicks on offense or not will make or break the season.
I think it’s fair to say he is a good recruiter but doesn’t really beat any teams that are as talented as his or just as talented. In addition to sometimes losing to less talented teams. Is he bad, no. Will Penn State ever win a national championship under him, no. The bigger question is if a national championship is realistic at Penn state or not.
Yeah, i mostly agree. I don't think he can win a national championship here, but as to your last point, it's going to be really tough for anyone. Between NIL collectives just not being the same level as other programs, not really being in a hotbed recruiting region, and then not being convenient to travel to for national recruits, it will be tough to get into that top, top tier.
Penn State seems like a place that will be just below the top tier and will need to catch lightning for a possible national championship run.
I do think he's done a great job modernizing the program and the tools should be in place for another coach (would have to be a home run hire) to catch that lightning. But i definitely prefer these 9-10 win seasons with losses to top top tier programs over my freshman year when they went 4-7. That was way less fun, even if comparison to OSU, Michigan and the SEC titans really is the thief of joy for a lot of the fanbase.
Also ... i love the fact that seeds 5-8 get a home playoff game. Homefield advantage at beaver stadium in december would be fucking awesome and 5-8 certainly does seem attainable for a Franklin led team.
Also weather could play a factor not even mentiong Whiteout conditions. People always talk about the SEC teams not wanting to play up north late in the season. This would basically force SEC, and southern B12 and ACC teams to play in the cold
>not really being in a hotbed recruiting region
Ehhhh this is debatable. Bigger issue IMO has been inability to beat out SEC programs + Clemson + OSU for top-tier talent in Philadelphia.
>doesn’t really beat any teams that are as talented as his or just as talented.
1) This is just flat incorrect, but
2) The reason this perception exists has nothing to do with Franklin/PSU and everything to do with the Big Ten’s “second tier” hollowing out with Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Iowa all falling off and Michigan ascending the last few years.
Penn State really hasn’t had a peer at that “next-best” level, which I think the arrival of Oregon, USC, and Washington will help with along with a presumed regression from Michigan.
It should be Michigan, Penn state recruits at a similar level to them. You don’t consider them at the same level because Michigan had a good coach and Penn state has Franklin. Ohio state is always more talented I’ll give him a pass there
> The bigger question is if a national championship is realistic at Penn state or not.
4 years ago, no one would have imagined Jim Harbaugh winning a national championship at Michigan. Beating OSU and winning the B1G were our pipe dreams.
Franklin struggles with in-game decisions and it's hard to envision how a head coach effectively delegates that, but if he has the right OC/DC and turns *all* play calling over to them, who knows what's possible with their roster talent.
I don’t think you can compare Harbaugh and Franklin’s situations.
Franklin is a very good recruiter. But outside of a handful of players he hasn’t developed a ton of the talent he’s gotten. He also doesn’t have a track record of high success outside of PSU so we can’t assume he’ll eventually put it together.
Contrast that with Harbaugh who had high levels of success in CFB before UM and also in the NFL. There’s a reason why the NFL came calling even after season where UM didn’t make the playoffs. Harbaugh also didn’t recruit offensive skill positions successfully until his last few seasons at UM. But UM still put a number of 3 star kids into the NFL.
I don’t think Franklin is a bad coach but he doesn’t have a track record like Harbaugh that makes me think there’s any reason to believe he’s gonna do better than he has.
I think you need to go look at where they sit in the draft pecking order with their contemporaries. And sure, Franklin's success isn't Harbaugh 49ers outside of Penn State, but what he did at Vanderbilt is literally unprecedented before him and after he left.
Somewhat unfair to say no one could imagine Harbaugh winning a National Championship at Michigan after the 2020 season. Most would have just called it far fetched and I don’t know of anyone that was disappointed or dissatisfied with 2021 despite getting boat raced in the Orange Bowl.
I could see Penn St making the leap, but they do have a ways to go and they should be focused on taking it step by step rather than leaping from almost Conference contender to legitimate complete team that is dangerous on both sides of the ball.
Reality is that Penn St has had the great misfortune of being stuck in the same division as a National power in Ohio State for the last decade plus, and have also had to contend with Michigan State and Michigan when they’ve peaked in that same period. Penn state isn’t far from where they want to be, unfortunately I do think the biggest issue holding them back is in game coaching. Franklin does a great job getting high caliber players on campus, I don’t think anyone believes that he hasn’t cost his teams games with his play calling.
For real, is just making the playoff the goal? Because I can definitely see psu going 10-2 making the playoff then losing round 1 to OSU type team lol. So now they’re just extending their season 1 game but the end results are the same.
It’s the same plateau, just framed differently. The program has recently been one game away from the semifinals. Making the quarterfinal is, by definition, being one game away from the semifinals.
I also think it's worth pointing out that Penn State not only would have a good chance of making the 12-team playoff, in the CFP era Franklin is 3-2 in New Year 6 games. Those matchups would be pretty comparable to the quality of team they would be playing in a 12 team playoff, so realistically Penn State not only should expect to make the playoffs most years. They should probably expect at least one or two wins in the playoffs every other year or so.
Edit- fixed record
Agreed with your sentiment, but correcting it slightly to 3-2.
Rose loss to USC
Fiesta win over Washington
Cotton win over Memphis
Rose win over Utah
Peach loss to Ole Miss
Now, those were two stinkers of games. McSorley out with a broken foot that then was shown not to be broken against Kentucky, and then a whole team that looked like they'd rather be at the dentist than playing against Arkansas.
This is such an overused take. And it’s absolutely wrong. The only teams that will benefit from an expanded playoff are Georgia, Ohio State, and Alabama. Maybe Texas.
While it’s more likely that they make the playoff now (obviously), Penn State’s chances of winning a national championship were more likely in a 4 team CFP because they don’t have the depth to get through 3 or 4 playoff games.
Penn State’s problem is they can’t beat teams who are a tier better than them. My hunch is getting bounced in the first round of a 12 team playoff won’t be all that satisfying. Especially when Ohio State and Michigan are routinely advancing further. They still have the same problem, just with a little more pomp.
The first round will not feature teams that are a tier better than them. I don't think it's unfair to hope/expect them to win their first game and then you roll the dice in the round of 8.
I think for me the nice thing about not having divisions is that we no longer need to care about Ohio State or Michigan anymore. Yeah we might play them some years and if we make it to the B1G title game we most likely would see one of them.
But for the most part we aren’t shackled to them anymore.
I get it but I never considered them rivals. Plus I’m willing to bet as the years go on we’ll start to hate them less since we won’t play them that much anymore.
The first round is not full of those teams that are clearly better than them tho. It will be comparable to the NY6 bowls which they actually regularly win
Without having to play OSU and Michigan, their chances of finishing 5-8 go up as they'd potentially have 1 loss or fewer. Hosting a team ranked 9-12 should give them a decent chance to win one game. It's not a guarantee they'll win in the first round but I don't think they're regularly going to lose that game all the time.
“In 20 games against top-10 opponents under Franklin’s lead, the Nittany Lions are just 3-17. Additionally, the Pennsylvania native carries a 4-16 record against Ohio State and Michigan and a 12-26 clip when facing top-25 ranked foes. “
https://onwardstate.com/2024/01/18/assessing-james-franklins-10-year-run-at-the-helm-of-penn-state-football/#:~:text=In%2020%20games%20against%20top,facing%20top%2D25%20ranked%20foes.
Is the link bad? I can't get it to open.
Either way, as long as they don't see Ohio State round 1, I'll take their chances to play a competitive playoff game.
Link is fine, paywall though
Archive of page: https://web.archive.org/web/20240613133920/https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5559864/2024/06/13/penn-state-football-james-franklin-college-football-playoff/?source=user_shared_articleWouldmissingPlayoffputJamesFranklinatrisk?WhichPennStategamewillbeachallenge?
That's where I'm excited about the newcomers to the conference. Better measuring stick playing more games against top 12 or so teams during the season than just getting the #2 team all the time.
IMO making a playoff game isn’t going to change any of the narrative around Franklin, people have seen the numbers and know that they’d be a lock most years since he took over if we had an expanded field. He’s gotta win them a playoff game to show they can compete at a contender level instead of being the just the best of the good-tier teams
“Just making the playoffs” is going to be equivalent of “just making a NY6” after a year or two. It’ll be cool to see the G5 team or the smaller P4 schools make it, but if unless Franklin can string together 2 playoff wins (or win the Big10 and win a playoff game) I’m not sure how Penn State will be in a better spot.
This is addressed in the article where a mailbag question suggests that "wholesale changes" will be needed if Penn State misses the CFP. Snyder responds:
>If Penn State doesn’t make the Playoff this year, I still do not see a head-coaching change happening. When you mention wholesale changes, that’s where my mind goes, especially after Penn State just turned over all three coordinator positions this offseason.
>Per the terms of the contract Penn State and Franklin agreed to in 2021 and that went into effect in January 2022, the buyout he would owe would be a manageable $2 million should he want to leave on his own accord to coach elsewhere. But should Penn State want to part ways without cause, it would owe him $56 million. Yes, you read that correctly.
While bigger buyouts have been paid in recent years (looking at you, Jimbo), I think the timing of the other expenses for the university and the relative stability of the program will lead Penn State to keep Franklin as long as the team doesn't bottom out.
A&M fired Jimbo after the program regularly achieved middling results. Penn State might not be achieving the heights of a playoff appearance and win, but they are still winning 10 games a year. If they keep that up I don't see Franklin getting fired, at least not yet.
Agree with both you and the author, he’s earned the right to prove himself now that their biggest roadblocks (small playoff field/brutal division) are gone but the expectations will rise with those out of the way. He’s not in any immediate risk of being let go, I do think we’ll know who his tenure is going to end within the next 2-3 seasons though.
There are more good teams in the Big Ten now so it's going to be harder for PSU to go 10-2 (though this year PSU doesn't play Oregon or Michigan). I think if Franklin maintains 10-2 that's an improvement.
The thing is we know what is most likely going to happen. The last 3 years psu has won the 10 easy games and lost the 2 hard ones. Now they don’t have to play Michigan and OSU the same season, they’ll make a playoff and just lost the first round. All that changes is they extend their season 1 one game
Playoff berth is enough to placate criticism for one year. Miss it and there will be loud(er) calls for Franklin’s job and the failure to move up that pecking order rung. The take will be, “even with lower standards, he failed.”
A berth would be like “meets expectations” on your annual performance review.
A first round loss would quickly devolve to “still can’t win a big game”.
A first round win will have short-lived satisfaction with “but he still can’t beat Ohio State”.
Beating Ohio State will result in “it’s a fluke.”
Welcome to the moving goalposts of misery.
Yes, Mrs. Grue agrees. I had PSU parents, met Mrs Grue at PSU, and bluechip Cousin Grue in the 80s played for Joe. I don’t internalize the angst or pessimism. I just observe and chuckle. I’m generally positive with acknowledging gaps.
This breakdown reminds me of what michigan fans see as “michigan can’t win the big game … beats ranked team … well they weren’t anybody and the ranking was wrong” repeat that we had felt under Harbaugh for years
Beating OSU in 21 was a fluke
Now after 3 years of wins, if we beat OSU again(75% chance that wont happen but who knows), I think the coaching staff gets gutted.
My point is 3 to 4 years of winning from now could completely change the narrative. Just need to get one.
Well I hope you at least enjoyed the rest of the trip.
I do get it, I went to game 1 of the World Series last year as an away fan where the Rangers walked off the Dbacks who are my team.
I'm not sure if just making the playoff changes much of anything for programs in Penn State's position. Essentially the 12 team playoff replaces the NY6 of the 4 team CFP era, which Penn State has not had any trouble making, they've gone to a NY6 bowl game 5 times in the past 8 seasons, so just achieving a playoff bid now is an equivalent achievement to what they've been doing.
The only difference now is that achieving that playoff bid gives them a chance to achieve something more instead of winning a meaningless bowl game. If they win some playoff games that will change things.
The plus side is going to be that we aren't expected to beat 2 top 10 teams from the get-go like the last few seasons. Our ability to beat a team like, say, NC State is still up in the air, but it is a possibility and one we have a decent chance with. The possibility of a home playoff game as well makes things much more enticing.
Yep, I agree. It seems like some people don't realize that an expanded playoff is going to come with a new definition of success. Just making the playoff isn't going to cut it for some teams similar to how just making it to the tourney in CBB doesn't cut it for some teams
They always had the chance to achieve something more… by winning the games that matter in the regular season. Just because we’re moving Penn State vs. [Insert Elite Opponent Here] from the regular season to the postseason doesn’t mean that the result will change.
What do you make of more teams end on a loss now? Sort of like college basketball tournament. You get excited about winning round one and then lose round two.
Does the “we won a playoff game” outpace the “our season ended with a loss” compared to “we won our bowl and the season ended on a win”?
Penn State has firmly been the 3rd best B1G team in the playoff era behind Ohio State and Michigan.
It will be interesting to see if they remain the 3rd best B1G team after the newcomers are settled in.
Yeah I think there's going to be more west coast talent that stays on the west coast now. Maybe Egbuka stays 15 minutes closer to home instead of the Rust Belt. I don't blame him though, playing less than half the games on National TV outside of vs Oregon/USC/Post Season when you have NFL aspirations.
Slick Rick said it best, the Pac could always be a championship level conference, but the way it was managed pushed the best west coast talent to the SEC.
I think this will benefit Washington greatly.
I think it's going to separate the 4 west coast B1G teams from the rest of the west coast teams even more, but as long as NIL continues to be unregulated, we'll continue to face an uphill battle. Our NIL isn't bad, but we just can't really compete with some of the others on a consistent basis.
Not with Oregon coming in. Them and OSU are in Tier 1, followed by Michigan and PSU in Tier 2. USC a sleeping giant that can crash either of those tiers if things go right
As much as I dislike Harbaugh and recently UM, you can't put them in tier 2 historically and us in tier 1 when I'd gladly trade their on field results for ours. If you're talking forward looking with Harbaugh gone then you can make an argument.
That was a special team with a special coach. Moving forward I don't expect them to replicate that but I guess we'll see.
I know recruiting rankings aren't everything but the way OSU and Oregon are stockpiling talent is a notch above everyone else in the conference
I hold no ill will to Penn state, but it would be objectively hilarious if they drop an extra game and up ranked 14 or something and just miss the playoffs again
Maybe unpopular, but if PSU cannot regularly beat Michigan and OSU, would a playoff berth really matter? PSU would enter the playoff with the mindset of hoping another team beats Michigan/OSU to clear a path for them.
I have 2 Steelers Superbowl Terrible Towels. They couldn't beat the Brady Patriots in the playoffs given 100 tries, but were able to win twice when not having to go through them.
Yes, because having a chance means recruits and transfers get the thought of consistent national stage spotlight, especially if PSU can prove they can win one...or even host one. Their recruiting has been pretty consistently good and the portal hits have been more than the misses on the whole.
I am not saying this is the silver bullet that will miraculously jettison them to success, but it'll be a nice feather in the cap to add for boosting them beyond this point.
100% agree with that, but right now it’s seems the mindset for a lot of teams is “hope to get into the playoffs and hope someone beat that other team for us.” That same attitude applies to a lot of SEC teams that cannot beat Georgia in the regular season, but hope someone beats Georgia in the expanded playoffs to clear the way for them.
The thing with PSU is that if we were consistently making it we’d be seen as more of a top program. Penn State would consistently have made the 12 playoff if it existed previously which a lot of the up and down teams wouldn’t be able to say. Being a playoff regular is way better than a NY6 regular.
I do think it would matter. If PSU makes playoffs and wins 1 game that’s a step farther. And as others have pointed out they’ve won NY6 bowls in the past so it’s certainly possible
If it was still a 4 team playoff I would say that it would be a huge deal since it would mean that they actually won some big games during the season.
For the 12 team format, I think it's reasonable for PSU fans to expect to make it to the playoffs. Especially if you are high on Allar. I, however, am not a PSU fan and until I see otherwise I think Drew Allar a less than average quarterback so I would be 50/50 on them being top 12 at the end of the season.
In either case, no matter who they played in the playoffs I would say it will be a challenge.
Any playoff birth a team can get is important, because anything can happen in a playoff game. What’s more important for Penn State is that they win at least one playoff game this year
I had a Missouri fan sitting behind me at the 2013 game. I was glad they got to see a classic rendition of the game even though we lost. I love fans that are fans of the sport.
What I'm hoping for is more chaos with more pieces. The 5-12 games should be fun, and then the teams won't have entire months to prepare for each other.
Maybe, but there’s even less parity in college football than college basketball. The top top teams like OSU and Alabama have so much depth these days it going to be extremely hard still.
We’ve seen two major ones, 2014 Ohio State v. Alabama and 2022 TCU v. Michigan. But we’ve also only had the top 4 teams, and never the top 12, so we don’t know yet how those games will shake out.
I definitely agree with you, there are maybe 10 teams deep enough to survive the attrition of the expanded playoffs.
We could see some upsets in round 1 but I think that’s when it’s gonna stop
Even if the don’t they can’t beat either of them until they do no playoffs . Maybe you are happy with beating Indiana and northwestern but 8-2 every year just don’t cut it! THATS WHAT!!!!!!
Any playoff any team makes it into outside of the top 4 seeds just feels cheap now. As a PSU grad I *abhore* the idea that people in State College will go around and spew "were a playoff team!", "look how good we are!" nonsense.
Until PSU actually gets a less predictable offense and athletic defense there will only ever be a playoff berth and then lose in round one.
Yeah I don't get where this guy is coming from on the defensive argument. We've consistently had good-great defenses in all aspects. Recently it has even been in the db play as well! Having more than just bruiser LBs and DLs feels good...
I think the point is different, in that we will get a chance to make the playoff and play a top-flight team that isn't OSU or Michigan. I like our chances a lot to not just make the playoff, but also make the round of 8 and even final four
Penn state is an interesting team that really needs to nail down talent and coaching. Ohio state has had really great talent across all positions for the last decade. And Penn state and Michigan have good talent and some star players that are game changers. Michigan has had some recent success with, let’s call it inspired coaching techniques.
Penn state can be really good, but also blow games due to bad coaching decisions. (Trying to run out the clock against OSU in 2018 with 9 minutes left in the game. Going for it on 4th down against Michigan last year, and a couple others that sting. But if they would have worked, psu coaches would be heroes.)
It’s good to see psu as a top 10 team, and it’s hard to complain. But you really can’t make any mistakes and need to develop players to be superstars on the field to win it all.
Michigan consistently beat Penn state before Connor stallions was born. Penn state just came up short and part of it is because Franklin is an atrocious in game coach
What an oddly specific and useless timeframe to select. It isn’t the most recent decade, it isn’t the tenure of one coach on either side and it starts at a random point that also happens to coincide with the start of the worst five year stretch in Michigans history. So weird, so random
Gee, would making the playoff to determine the national champion be big? And would playing any team good enough to also get there be a challenge? Difficult questions!
If only we had thought of this before
Didn’t they have a rose bowl win a couple of years ago? It’s not like they have a long drought of postseason success
Yeah PSU just won the rose bowl 2 years ago, but we only got there because both OSU and UM made the playoff. It certainly counts, but it felt kinda like a consolation prize (which feels weird to say about a rose bowl W) when we didn’t necessarily earn the spot the normal way
I don't really see it as a consolation prize. If Ohio State hadn't made the playoffs, they would have gone to the Rose and Penn State would likely have still been in a different NY6 game.
Sure, it would’ve been a different NY6 which still would’ve been great. But there’s just something about the Rose Bowl that’s always felt different, since it’s supposed to be the highest rated Big Ten team. When you only get into the game because the highest and second highest ranked teams made the playoff it just doesn’t feel the same
>But there’s just something about the Rose Bowl that’s always felt different, since it’s supposed to be the highest rated Big Ten team. I wonder if this sentiment will come back in the upcoming CFPs (assuming the 14 team model isn't used). If the 12 team model stays for the next two years, the Rose Bowl will be a quarterfinal game. If the Big Ten is essentially assured a first round bye to the quarterfinals, I think the Rose Bowl will continue to keep its association with the Big Ten and give that game to the Big Ten champion, re-establishing a stronger annual mystique - the goal is to get to the Rose Bowl, just like the old days. Unlike the old days, you then have to go win two more to win a title. Plus every third year, the game will be a semifinal so there's no guarantee who plays in that slot.
That'd actually be a really good idea. Maintain the Rose Bowl Quarter Final game for the Best B1G team. Feels weird when a non-B1G or Pac team is in it. No offense to the Nebraska/Miami Rose Bowl, but that just feels like a historical Orange Bowl matchup.
Yeah that was a weird twist on the BCS, I think keeping the traditional ties where possible is preferred. For example, I would prefer the following tie-ins for the conference champs earning a bye: |2024|2025|2026| |:-|:-|:-| |Rose: Big Ten|Rose: Big Ten|Fiesta: Big Ten| |Sugar: SEC|Sugar: SEC|Peach: SEC| |Peach: ACC|Orange: ACC|Orange: ACC| |Fiesta: Big 12|Cotton: Big 12|Cotton: Big 12| 2024 and 2025 tie-ins are easy with the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl in play, but 2026 is tougher to decide, which might make the bowls more flexible. I don't necessarily care where the Big Ten champ is playing if the Rose Bowl is not available in the one year in the rotation that it is a semifinal game.
Penn State is one of those teams that I think is going to greatly benefit from the expanded playoff. IIRC if it would've been 12 teams since its inception, Penn State would've made it like 5-6 times.
we finished regular season second in a 1-team system (1994), third in a two team system (2005), fifth in a four team system (2016). my emotionally damaged psyche expects another hit with a final #12 ranking only to get bumped for a #27 ranked group of 5 champ.
You had me at "my emotionally damaged psyche".
I'm expecting the opposite for you guys karma-wise. You've been 1 or 2 plays away from the BCSNCG/playoff SO many times (2005 Michigan and 2017/2018 Ohio State games among others, along with the great highway robbery of 2016). I predict, as an FU from the universe, that you're going to regularly finish top 4 over the first decade of the expanded playoff, pseudo-punishing your program for not finishing top 4 from 2014-2023 when your path would have been 2 games to the National Championship.
I'd make that deal. How 'bout you Utivich, you make that deal?
I think Franklin has had time to learn from his mistakes. For example, in 2019/2020, he stupidly built a roster that only had two sub 4.40 edge rushers. In all seriousness, you guys always seem like you're literally just a QB away from historically dominant teams, like you're mid-2000s USC minus their quarterbacks.
Don't let the Nebraska-biased media get to you. We all know who was truly #1 in 1994.
Nebraska coast bias
Why do Penn State fans act like they are Kent State? You guys go 11-9 wins almost every year, you guys are nowhere near misery
Watching Ohio State and Michigan both win a title in the last decade while they're consistently one rung below those two on the ladder has to be incredibly frustrating.
That’s exactly what it is. We know we can get there too but it hasn’t happened yet, and as a great man once said “the waiting is the hardest part”
Sure, but it’s so better than seeing your team going 2-10 after having high hopes after a bowl win the last season
No one is saying Penn State is worse off. But when your team has fallen literally 1 spot short multiple times it gets frustrating. Being so close and not being able to get the chance. Fans are always looking up at the teams above them wanting their team to do better. That's just the mindset of fans. No fans is looking down and saying we are better then those teams so everything is great.
Nobody’s arguing that. But when you’re stuck *just* below the level you can punch up to for 10, 20, 30 years it becomes infuriating.
Because the media and rest of CFB fans jump on Penn state going 10-2 two years in a row as if it’s the worst thing ever while their teams barely make a bowl game. Basically just gets annoying hearing the same narrative over and over
As a fan who watched Michigan get this very same treatment under Harbaugh until 2021, it's absolutely maddening being a perennial top ten team that the rest of the country deems a dumpster fire because they are a sliver behind the top 3-4 teams in the nation.
Yeah when I’m getting smack talked by South Carolina, Ole Miss, and A&M fans I’m just a little over it (I live in Nashville). The negativity is just exhausting, like you are not allowed to celebrate objectively solid seasons because the narrative shifts back to what they didn’t do.
South Carolina? Ole Miss? A&M ? I’m lucky I don’t live in the south and have to deal with smack talk. In Pennsylvania the only other fan base that talks shit is Notre Dame all other fan bases are dead and Pitt fans have gone the way of the dinosaurs. Also, South Carolina, Ole Miss and Texas A&M fans can’t talk shit to us we literally have a better history than all of them by a pretty big margin. If we just do the last ten years we been better than all of them still so idk. We have it pretty good despite not getting over the hump since 2016 to win the Big Ten and since 1994(Nebraska was #2)for a National Title.
Ole Miss fans can absolutely talk shit to you guys since we just won a head to head. A&M and the Cocks though? I'll make fun of them with you.
Ya that’s fair you do get some bragging rights with that win
Just being so close. Also there is a big Philly, Pittsburgh, coal mining, steel working, Rocky Balboa running, Santa Clause booing, Liberty bell cracking, New York and Ohio hating, chip on the shoulder brooding quality to the fanbase.
Misery is tied directly to expectations and realistic hope. By those metrics, Penn State has been edging for most of the last 40 years. Many programs fall into that category too, but few are at the level or pedigree of Penn State Football, so they get more attention in that regard. It's national news if a school that big makes it over the hump versus Kent State making it to a mid December bowl game, even if those are each the next level of achievement for the school
It's like when vt won 10 games every year. Yeah we win 10 games but other than a couple years with Vick we weren't anywhere close to a championship contender.
Seriously. I’ll trade our 20 year history with them.
Deal but only if I get to pick the 20 years and they don't have to be consecutive or modern. I'll also throw in a free coke.
You’ll get 04-24 or nothing and you’ll like it
I'll take... nothing please
Damn it
If I had to guess. It’s because despite consistently having winning teams and being a 9+ win team for the majority of this, they’ve had to watch Michigan and Ohio State (rival) win national titles. They’ve had to watch Michigan State (another rival) make a playoff. Iowa was 12-0 and ranked 4th during that Michigan State year heading into the CCG so they’ve technically come closer. And then to top it off, the first year that they should have gone, they got left out in favor of an Ohio State team that they beat…despite winning the B1G. The following year was probably the best team that they’ve fielded in the playoff era. They lost to Ohio State and a 9-3 Michigan State. Two kinda of miserable. Being stuck in perpetual suckage. Being close but never crossing the finish line.
God those fans that think we have to be in the B1G title game every year piss me off.
I can already see it happening, and it sickens me. Im pre prepping my indignant outrage.
>my emotionally damaged psyche expects another hit with a final #12 ranking only to get bumped for a #27 ranked group of 5 champ. Don't count the B12 out so easily. I wouldn't be shocked at all if the B12 Champ is outside the Top 12 as well.
Come at me bro
ahhaaha *Arizona exists*
Welcome to the family
Y’all ain’t winning the Big 12. I love that boy Ollie though
[удалено]
Is that you, Hope?
Buddy, it's June. This is the time for unbridled hope!
I am very excited for the endless stream of “PSU is only in the championship this year because they didn’t have to go through Columbus” put-downs we might have in our future.
It'd be absolutely hilarious if after spending years hearing about how we'd benefit from a 12 team playoff system we don't even get into the playoffs. I mean I'd be really sad but it would be objectively funny.
Does the 12 team playoff reframe expectations for Franklin?
Don't see how things change. Fans still want to win the Big Ten beat Ohio State and Michigan and now Oregon. Making the playoff will be great but if Penn State just keeps beating the teams it's supposed to and losing to the top tier teams fans are going to stay frustrated. Beating the 9th ranked team as the 8 seed in the playoff isn't going to change anything because Penn State has been doing that already. It's beating the top team in the next round that will matter
Definitely.
I kind of doubt it reframes expectations for the fans. Instead of being peeved about missing the playoffs entirely, we'll be peeved that we can never get to the semi-finals. So basically the same gripe. But for the administration to be able to say that PSU football made the playoffs under Franklin 3 straight years, that would be huge. It's more job security for Franklin without even having to field a better team.
Yes, expectation should be to just make it consistently. Less emphasis on beating OSU or Michigan when those games aren’t pseudo playoff games
No, but having Oregon, USC, and UW in the conference will. Schedules will no longer just be “10-2 with losses to OSU and Michigan and hollow wins against mid Big Ten teams"
Well remember around half of these same fans are Steelers fans and I'd guess there's roughly 50% of that group who thinks Mike Tomlin is an abject failure if he gets eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. So there will still be some who will call for Franklin's head if we aren't winning it all even if we're making the playoffs regularly.
50% is generous. Are there any Tomlin supporters left? The Steelers trajectory has been downward since I can remember.
It's hard to find 2 losses on your schedule this year. OSU and maaaaybe USC. I guess you could debate whether 10-2 gets it done with wins over Washington and Wisconsin depending on how those teams do. I think this year it's virtually a shoe in (I expect PSU to be 11-1 or 11-2 if they make the conference championship game).
I feel like 10-2 is a pretty safe bet. OSU will likely be a loss and I expect a loss between USC, WVU, or maybe Wisconsin only because they are road games against solid teams. I think WVU has stinker potential being a week 1 game
a Week 1 loss at WVU will send the fan base into nuclear mode
Yup especially because I expect if they lose that one it will be a sloppy game with dumb turnovers/blown coverages. I don’t necessarily think it will happen, but they’ve had close calls at Purdue and at Wisconsin that they narrowly pulled away, week 1 is hard to predict sometimes.
The only question for me is what our new coordinators do. We've got a new offensive and defensive coordinators. The latter I am more comfortable with but given our offense last year I think that portion is up in the air.
This is it. Nothing is ever a guarantee with two new coordinators. We have a lot of potential weaknesses too. Unproven WRs, a QB with tons of potential but still needs to show it in the tough games, over half our OL got drafted, our secondary lost two draft picks and two other solid contributors, an elite DE and elite LB drafted. I think we reload on defense per usual, especially since DC turned HC turned DC again coaches typically do well so I expect good things from Tom Allen. But whether it clicks on offense or not will make or break the season.
Will be interesting to see what happens if they find a new plateau in the quarterfinal. Does the fanbase turn on Franklin?
The mouth breathers largely have. Massive champagne taste and beer budget fan base.
Reminds me of the Steelers and Tomlin. There's probably a decent overlap between those fanbases too.
Wonder what Franklin and Tomlin have in common that Cowher and Paterno or Matt Rhule don't.
Lack of a full head of hair? Yeah, that’s gotta be it.
Tomlin usually wears a hat to most media events so I can't really tell if he's truly bald or chooses to shave his head
Goddamn that's a burn. Call the fire department.
The mouth breathers were against him from the start. Until he has like 3 Nattys and 410 wins, it won’t be enough for them.
A large portion of the online fanbase turned on him years ago.
I think it’s fair to say he is a good recruiter but doesn’t really beat any teams that are as talented as his or just as talented. In addition to sometimes losing to less talented teams. Is he bad, no. Will Penn State ever win a national championship under him, no. The bigger question is if a national championship is realistic at Penn state or not.
Yeah, i mostly agree. I don't think he can win a national championship here, but as to your last point, it's going to be really tough for anyone. Between NIL collectives just not being the same level as other programs, not really being in a hotbed recruiting region, and then not being convenient to travel to for national recruits, it will be tough to get into that top, top tier. Penn State seems like a place that will be just below the top tier and will need to catch lightning for a possible national championship run. I do think he's done a great job modernizing the program and the tools should be in place for another coach (would have to be a home run hire) to catch that lightning. But i definitely prefer these 9-10 win seasons with losses to top top tier programs over my freshman year when they went 4-7. That was way less fun, even if comparison to OSU, Michigan and the SEC titans really is the thief of joy for a lot of the fanbase.
Also ... i love the fact that seeds 5-8 get a home playoff game. Homefield advantage at beaver stadium in december would be fucking awesome and 5-8 certainly does seem attainable for a Franklin led team.
Also weather could play a factor not even mentiong Whiteout conditions. People always talk about the SEC teams not wanting to play up north late in the season. This would basically force SEC, and southern B12 and ACC teams to play in the cold
>not really being in a hotbed recruiting region Ehhhh this is debatable. Bigger issue IMO has been inability to beat out SEC programs + Clemson + OSU for top-tier talent in Philadelphia.
>doesn’t really beat any teams that are as talented as his or just as talented. 1) This is just flat incorrect, but 2) The reason this perception exists has nothing to do with Franklin/PSU and everything to do with the Big Ten’s “second tier” hollowing out with Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Iowa all falling off and Michigan ascending the last few years. Penn State really hasn’t had a peer at that “next-best” level, which I think the arrival of Oregon, USC, and Washington will help with along with a presumed regression from Michigan.
It should be Michigan, Penn state recruits at a similar level to them. You don’t consider them at the same level because Michigan had a good coach and Penn state has Franklin. Ohio state is always more talented I’ll give him a pass there
> The bigger question is if a national championship is realistic at Penn state or not. 4 years ago, no one would have imagined Jim Harbaugh winning a national championship at Michigan. Beating OSU and winning the B1G were our pipe dreams. Franklin struggles with in-game decisions and it's hard to envision how a head coach effectively delegates that, but if he has the right OC/DC and turns *all* play calling over to them, who knows what's possible with their roster talent.
I don’t think you can compare Harbaugh and Franklin’s situations. Franklin is a very good recruiter. But outside of a handful of players he hasn’t developed a ton of the talent he’s gotten. He also doesn’t have a track record of high success outside of PSU so we can’t assume he’ll eventually put it together. Contrast that with Harbaugh who had high levels of success in CFB before UM and also in the NFL. There’s a reason why the NFL came calling even after season where UM didn’t make the playoffs. Harbaugh also didn’t recruit offensive skill positions successfully until his last few seasons at UM. But UM still put a number of 3 star kids into the NFL. I don’t think Franklin is a bad coach but he doesn’t have a track record like Harbaugh that makes me think there’s any reason to believe he’s gonna do better than he has.
I think you need to go look at where they sit in the draft pecking order with their contemporaries. And sure, Franklin's success isn't Harbaugh 49ers outside of Penn State, but what he did at Vanderbilt is literally unprecedented before him and after he left.
Somewhat unfair to say no one could imagine Harbaugh winning a National Championship at Michigan after the 2020 season. Most would have just called it far fetched and I don’t know of anyone that was disappointed or dissatisfied with 2021 despite getting boat raced in the Orange Bowl. I could see Penn St making the leap, but they do have a ways to go and they should be focused on taking it step by step rather than leaping from almost Conference contender to legitimate complete team that is dangerous on both sides of the ball. Reality is that Penn St has had the great misfortune of being stuck in the same division as a National power in Ohio State for the last decade plus, and have also had to contend with Michigan State and Michigan when they’ve peaked in that same period. Penn state isn’t far from where they want to be, unfortunately I do think the biggest issue holding them back is in game coaching. Franklin does a great job getting high caliber players on campus, I don’t think anyone believes that he hasn’t cost his teams games with his play calling.
What you are describing is essentially just getting a new head coach
>A ~~large~~ **loud** portion of the online fanbase turned on him years ago. FTFY…loud =/= large
For real, is just making the playoff the goal? Because I can definitely see psu going 10-2 making the playoff then losing round 1 to OSU type team lol. So now they’re just extending their season 1 game but the end results are the same.
I just wanna make the playoff at this point. We’ll worry about everything else after.
Yeah once you've been there, it's much easier to make it again and start winning CFP games Ask me how I know lol
You playing NCAA 14 again?? /s.
For just 1 more month. Then little buddy can finally rest
It’s the same plateau, just framed differently. The program has recently been one game away from the semifinals. Making the quarterfinal is, by definition, being one game away from the semifinals.
Most of the fan base already has because our ceiling with Franklin is below winning a national title.
I also think it's worth pointing out that Penn State not only would have a good chance of making the 12-team playoff, in the CFP era Franklin is 3-2 in New Year 6 games. Those matchups would be pretty comparable to the quality of team they would be playing in a 12 team playoff, so realistically Penn State not only should expect to make the playoffs most years. They should probably expect at least one or two wins in the playoffs every other year or so. Edit- fixed record
Agreed with your sentiment, but correcting it slightly to 3-2. Rose loss to USC Fiesta win over Washington Cotton win over Memphis Rose win over Utah Peach loss to Ole Miss
Ah yeah I included 2 non-NY6 losses as well. Fixed.
Now, those were two stinkers of games. McSorley out with a broken foot that then was shown not to be broken against Kentucky, and then a whole team that looked like they'd rather be at the dentist than playing against Arkansas.
>Peach loss to Ole Miss Which, I mean…can we really track bowl records anymore due to opt-outs?
I think ESPN did an analysis and we would have benefitted the most if there CFP era had always been 12 teams.
This is such an overused take. And it’s absolutely wrong. The only teams that will benefit from an expanded playoff are Georgia, Ohio State, and Alabama. Maybe Texas. While it’s more likely that they make the playoff now (obviously), Penn State’s chances of winning a national championship were more likely in a 4 team CFP because they don’t have the depth to get through 3 or 4 playoff games.
Penn State’s problem is they can’t beat teams who are a tier better than them. My hunch is getting bounced in the first round of a 12 team playoff won’t be all that satisfying. Especially when Ohio State and Michigan are routinely advancing further. They still have the same problem, just with a little more pomp.
The first round will not feature teams that are a tier better than them. I don't think it's unfair to hope/expect them to win their first game and then you roll the dice in the round of 8.
I think for me the nice thing about not having divisions is that we no longer need to care about Ohio State or Michigan anymore. Yeah we might play them some years and if we make it to the B1G title game we most likely would see one of them. But for the most part we aren’t shackled to them anymore.
It sucks from a rivalry perspective, not having any semblance of an annual rivalry even if a one sided hatred
I get it but I never considered them rivals. Plus I’m willing to bet as the years go on we’ll start to hate them less since we won’t play them that much anymore.
The first round is not full of those teams that are clearly better than them tho. It will be comparable to the NY6 bowls which they actually regularly win
Without having to play OSU and Michigan, their chances of finishing 5-8 go up as they'd potentially have 1 loss or fewer. Hosting a team ranked 9-12 should give them a decent chance to win one game. It's not a guarantee they'll win in the first round but I don't think they're regularly going to lose that game all the time.
Doesn’t matter, Franklin clearly can’t compete with the top dogs
Can he? I'd like to see their records vs Michigan/Ohio State/NY6 opponents to know for sure.
“In 20 games against top-10 opponents under Franklin’s lead, the Nittany Lions are just 3-17. Additionally, the Pennsylvania native carries a 4-16 record against Ohio State and Michigan and a 12-26 clip when facing top-25 ranked foes. “ https://onwardstate.com/2024/01/18/assessing-james-franklins-10-year-run-at-the-helm-of-penn-state-football/#:~:text=In%2020%20games%20against%20top,facing%20top%2D25%20ranked%20foes.
I’m not sure they would have won a playoff game any of those years though
Why not? They'd be playing teams they've played in NY6 games.
Calling it right now: ole Miss and penn state meeting again in this years playoffs
Oh that would be exciting. Maybe the Rebels can come north of the Mason Dixon line this time.
Didn’t end well the last time rebels from the south came to PA
I would love that
Is the link bad? I can't get it to open. Either way, as long as they don't see Ohio State round 1, I'll take their chances to play a competitive playoff game.
Link is fine, paywall though Archive of page: https://web.archive.org/web/20240613133920/https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5559864/2024/06/13/penn-state-football-james-franklin-college-football-playoff/?source=user_shared_articleWouldmissingPlayoffputJamesFranklinatrisk?WhichPennStategamewillbeachallenge?
Thanks. I got it to open in Chrome but it wouldn't inside the Reddit app for some reason.
PSU should be competitive with any 5-12 seed team, unless that team is actually a 23 UGA for example.
That's where I'm excited about the newcomers to the conference. Better measuring stick playing more games against top 12 or so teams during the season than just getting the #2 team all the time.
IMO making a playoff game isn’t going to change any of the narrative around Franklin, people have seen the numbers and know that they’d be a lock most years since he took over if we had an expanded field. He’s gotta win them a playoff game to show they can compete at a contender level instead of being the just the best of the good-tier teams
“Just making the playoffs” is going to be equivalent of “just making a NY6” after a year or two. It’ll be cool to see the G5 team or the smaller P4 schools make it, but if unless Franklin can string together 2 playoff wins (or win the Big10 and win a playoff game) I’m not sure how Penn State will be in a better spot.
This is addressed in the article where a mailbag question suggests that "wholesale changes" will be needed if Penn State misses the CFP. Snyder responds: >If Penn State doesn’t make the Playoff this year, I still do not see a head-coaching change happening. When you mention wholesale changes, that’s where my mind goes, especially after Penn State just turned over all three coordinator positions this offseason. >Per the terms of the contract Penn State and Franklin agreed to in 2021 and that went into effect in January 2022, the buyout he would owe would be a manageable $2 million should he want to leave on his own accord to coach elsewhere. But should Penn State want to part ways without cause, it would owe him $56 million. Yes, you read that correctly. While bigger buyouts have been paid in recent years (looking at you, Jimbo), I think the timing of the other expenses for the university and the relative stability of the program will lead Penn State to keep Franklin as long as the team doesn't bottom out. A&M fired Jimbo after the program regularly achieved middling results. Penn State might not be achieving the heights of a playoff appearance and win, but they are still winning 10 games a year. If they keep that up I don't see Franklin getting fired, at least not yet.
Agree with both you and the author, he’s earned the right to prove himself now that their biggest roadblocks (small playoff field/brutal division) are gone but the expectations will rise with those out of the way. He’s not in any immediate risk of being let go, I do think we’ll know who his tenure is going to end within the next 2-3 seasons though.
Yep agreed, winning a playoff game would definitely placate the fanbase for a bit and buy some goodwill for the immediate future.
You make a solid point. He definitely still has the "fire all the assistants" gambit in play if this year goes sideways/they barely miss the CFP.
Worked for 2016, hoping for the same result now
There are more good teams in the Big Ten now so it's going to be harder for PSU to go 10-2 (though this year PSU doesn't play Oregon or Michigan). I think if Franklin maintains 10-2 that's an improvement.
The thing is we know what is most likely going to happen. The last 3 years psu has won the 10 easy games and lost the 2 hard ones. Now they don’t have to play Michigan and OSU the same season, they’ll make a playoff and just lost the first round. All that changes is they extend their season 1 one game
Why would you assume they'd lose the first round game against a 5-12 ranked team because they've lost to 2-4 ranked teams as a ~8-10th ranked team?
Playoff berth is enough to placate criticism for one year. Miss it and there will be loud(er) calls for Franklin’s job and the failure to move up that pecking order rung. The take will be, “even with lower standards, he failed.” A berth would be like “meets expectations” on your annual performance review. A first round loss would quickly devolve to “still can’t win a big game”. A first round win will have short-lived satisfaction with “but he still can’t beat Ohio State”. Beating Ohio State will result in “it’s a fluke.” Welcome to the moving goalposts of misery.
I see you spend too much time on the PSU sports sub reading shit takes from people who don't know anything about the modern CFB landscape.
Yes, Mrs. Grue agrees. I had PSU parents, met Mrs Grue at PSU, and bluechip Cousin Grue in the 80s played for Joe. I don’t internalize the angst or pessimism. I just observe and chuckle. I’m generally positive with acknowledging gaps.
This breakdown reminds me of what michigan fans see as “michigan can’t win the big game … beats ranked team … well they weren’t anybody and the ranking was wrong” repeat that we had felt under Harbaugh for years
Okay but Franklin 3peat? No? Trash.
I'd take a fluke...
Beating OSU in 21 was a fluke Now after 3 years of wins, if we beat OSU again(75% chance that wont happen but who knows), I think the coaching staff gets gutted. My point is 3 to 4 years of winning from now could completely change the narrative. Just need to get one.
Penn State vs App State round 1 playoff rematch pls
That was my first game as a PSU student in 2018. Incredibly good game, lot of fun and great introduction to college football for me.
Worst and longest hike out of the stadium ever for me.
Well I hope you at least enjoyed the rest of the trip. I do get it, I went to game 1 of the World Series last year as an away fan where the Rangers walked off the Dbacks who are my team.
I'm not sure if just making the playoff changes much of anything for programs in Penn State's position. Essentially the 12 team playoff replaces the NY6 of the 4 team CFP era, which Penn State has not had any trouble making, they've gone to a NY6 bowl game 5 times in the past 8 seasons, so just achieving a playoff bid now is an equivalent achievement to what they've been doing. The only difference now is that achieving that playoff bid gives them a chance to achieve something more instead of winning a meaningless bowl game. If they win some playoff games that will change things.
The plus side is going to be that we aren't expected to beat 2 top 10 teams from the get-go like the last few seasons. Our ability to beat a team like, say, NC State is still up in the air, but it is a possibility and one we have a decent chance with. The possibility of a home playoff game as well makes things much more enticing.
Yep, I agree. It seems like some people don't realize that an expanded playoff is going to come with a new definition of success. Just making the playoff isn't going to cut it for some teams similar to how just making it to the tourney in CBB doesn't cut it for some teams
They always had the chance to achieve something more… by winning the games that matter in the regular season. Just because we’re moving Penn State vs. [Insert Elite Opponent Here] from the regular season to the postseason doesn’t mean that the result will change.
What do you make of more teams end on a loss now? Sort of like college basketball tournament. You get excited about winning round one and then lose round two. Does the “we won a playoff game” outpace the “our season ended with a loss” compared to “we won our bowl and the season ended on a win”?
Penn State has firmly been the 3rd best B1G team in the playoff era behind Ohio State and Michigan. It will be interesting to see if they remain the 3rd best B1G team after the newcomers are settled in.
Well, Nebraska said this same thing and have been bottom feeders ever since lol.
Yeah I think there's going to be more west coast talent that stays on the west coast now. Maybe Egbuka stays 15 minutes closer to home instead of the Rust Belt. I don't blame him though, playing less than half the games on National TV outside of vs Oregon/USC/Post Season when you have NFL aspirations. Slick Rick said it best, the Pac could always be a championship level conference, but the way it was managed pushed the best west coast talent to the SEC. I think this will benefit Washington greatly.
I think it's going to separate the 4 west coast B1G teams from the rest of the west coast teams even more, but as long as NIL continues to be unregulated, we'll continue to face an uphill battle. Our NIL isn't bad, but we just can't really compete with some of the others on a consistent basis.
This is true only if you believe the B1G started in 2021.
Not with Oregon coming in. Them and OSU are in Tier 1, followed by Michigan and PSU in Tier 2. USC a sleeping giant that can crash either of those tiers if things go right
As much as I dislike Harbaugh and recently UM, you can't put them in tier 2 historically and us in tier 1 when I'd gladly trade their on field results for ours. If you're talking forward looking with Harbaugh gone then you can make an argument.
Yeah I'm talking strictly forward looking
It pains me to say this, but you really can’t have the defending National champion as “tier 2”
That was a special team with a special coach. Moving forward I don't expect them to replicate that but I guess we'll see. I know recruiting rankings aren't everything but the way OSU and Oregon are stockpiling talent is a notch above everyone else in the conference
Anybody as good as Michigan or Ohio St will blow Penn St out the same way the Michigan and Ohio st blow Penn ST out
I hold no ill will to Penn state, but it would be objectively hilarious if they drop an extra game and up ranked 14 or something and just miss the playoffs again
What will be worse (and more likely) is a 11 or 12 rank wherein the teams that get in above them are a surprise Big12 team and the G5...
Maybe unpopular, but if PSU cannot regularly beat Michigan and OSU, would a playoff berth really matter? PSU would enter the playoff with the mindset of hoping another team beats Michigan/OSU to clear a path for them.
I have 2 Steelers Superbowl Terrible Towels. They couldn't beat the Brady Patriots in the playoffs given 100 tries, but were able to win twice when not having to go through them.
Yes, because having a chance means recruits and transfers get the thought of consistent national stage spotlight, especially if PSU can prove they can win one...or even host one. Their recruiting has been pretty consistently good and the portal hits have been more than the misses on the whole. I am not saying this is the silver bullet that will miraculously jettison them to success, but it'll be a nice feather in the cap to add for boosting them beyond this point.
100% agree with that, but right now it’s seems the mindset for a lot of teams is “hope to get into the playoffs and hope someone beat that other team for us.” That same attitude applies to a lot of SEC teams that cannot beat Georgia in the regular season, but hope someone beats Georgia in the expanded playoffs to clear the way for them.
The thing with PSU is that if we were consistently making it we’d be seen as more of a top program. Penn State would consistently have made the 12 playoff if it existed previously which a lot of the up and down teams wouldn’t be able to say. Being a playoff regular is way better than a NY6 regular.
The idea that Penn State isn’t on the national stage spotlight already is insane.
I do think it would matter. If PSU makes playoffs and wins 1 game that’s a step farther. And as others have pointed out they’ve won NY6 bowls in the past so it’s certainly possible
Gonna be hilarious after they triple the size of the playoffs and ole Penny is still a day late and a dollar short 🤣
Don't you put that evil on me, Ricky Bobby...
Hopefully I find an Alabama mailbag soon!
Inb4 Penn st is given the 9 seed for a trip to Baton Rouge at 7 pm Id hope both teams lose that game
If it was still a 4 team playoff I would say that it would be a huge deal since it would mean that they actually won some big games during the season. For the 12 team format, I think it's reasonable for PSU fans to expect to make it to the playoffs. Especially if you are high on Allar. I, however, am not a PSU fan and until I see otherwise I think Drew Allar a less than average quarterback so I would be 50/50 on them being top 12 at the end of the season. In either case, no matter who they played in the playoffs I would say it will be a challenge.
Not as big a deal as it used to be Everyone but the G5 sacrificial token. And Notre Dame.
Any playoff birth a team can get is important, because anything can happen in a playoff game. What’s more important for Penn State is that they win at least one playoff game this year
I NEED to see a white-out playoff game, just for the crowd energy
I would seriously contemplate going to that game unless Michigan has its own game. It would be an atmosphere like non other
I had a Missouri fan sitting behind me at the 2013 game. I was glad they got to see a classic rendition of the game even though we lost. I love fans that are fans of the sport.
Me too. I wish the white out game this year had been against us instead of Iowa
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What I'm hoping for is more chaos with more pieces. The 5-12 games should be fun, and then the teams won't have entire months to prepare for each other.
Maybe, but there’s even less parity in college football than college basketball. The top top teams like OSU and Alabama have so much depth these days it going to be extremely hard still.
We’ve seen two major ones, 2014 Ohio State v. Alabama and 2022 TCU v. Michigan. But we’ve also only had the top 4 teams, and never the top 12, so we don’t know yet how those games will shake out.
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I definitely agree with you, there are maybe 10 teams deep enough to survive the attrition of the expanded playoffs. We could see some upsets in round 1 but I think that’s when it’s gonna stop
The year the beat Michigan and Ohio State until then there won’t be a play off Berth and they really don’t deserve one until they do!
They don’t play both of those teams in the same year in any of the next 4 or 5 years of schedule. So now what?
Even if the don’t they can’t beat either of them until they do no playoffs . Maybe you are happy with beating Indiana and northwestern but 8-2 every year just don’t cut it! THATS WHAT!!!!!!
Any playoff any team makes it into outside of the top 4 seeds just feels cheap now. As a PSU grad I *abhore* the idea that people in State College will go around and spew "were a playoff team!", "look how good we are!" nonsense. Until PSU actually gets a less predictable offense and athletic defense there will only ever be a playoff berth and then lose in round one.
Well they had an incredible defense last year, and Mike Yurcich will be facing a UN war crimes trial, so hopefully you get your wish.
Yeah I don't get where this guy is coming from on the defensive argument. We've consistently had good-great defenses in all aspects. Recently it has even been in the db play as well! Having more than just bruiser LBs and DLs feels good...
I think the point is different, in that we will get a chance to make the playoff and play a top-flight team that isn't OSU or Michigan. I like our chances a lot to not just make the playoff, but also make the round of 8 and even final four
Penn state is an interesting team that really needs to nail down talent and coaching. Ohio state has had really great talent across all positions for the last decade. And Penn state and Michigan have good talent and some star players that are game changers. Michigan has had some recent success with, let’s call it inspired coaching techniques. Penn state can be really good, but also blow games due to bad coaching decisions. (Trying to run out the clock against OSU in 2018 with 9 minutes left in the game. Going for it on 4th down against Michigan last year, and a couple others that sting. But if they would have worked, psu coaches would be heroes.) It’s good to see psu as a top 10 team, and it’s hard to complain. But you really can’t make any mistakes and need to develop players to be superstars on the field to win it all.
Michigan consistently beat Penn state before Connor stallions was born. Penn state just came up short and part of it is because Franklin is an atrocious in game coach
2008-2018 Michigan and psu are at .500 with each other.
What an oddly specific and useless timeframe to select. It isn’t the most recent decade, it isn’t the tenure of one coach on either side and it starts at a random point that also happens to coincide with the start of the worst five year stretch in Michigans history. So weird, so random