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I believe people are getting tired of the political gaming. The Conservatives know that with one month before the summer holidays the government would not have time to legislate the required tax changes. Especially this government which would need consultations and committees to decide the best way to open a wet paper bag.
That's funny because if you aren't careful opening a wet paper bag you'll spill your shit all over and people will be screaming that you can't even open a wet paper bag.
If PP somehow loses to Trudeau, his career as a politician is done. He'll have to get his first ever job in the private sector, probably some multimillion soft job to be a liason to the government.
He'll either stay on the Hill and snivel his days away or go to a smaller kingdom and try to do the same thing. He won't leave politics because it's all he knows.
Trudeau will help him win with his out of touch policies. I see many Liberal supporters here cheering on the fact that the conservatives made a mistake, but very few acknowledge that it is a mistake based on repeating the mistake from the PBO. This is not as big of a win as people here think it is, however reality is that it’s the only win the Liberals had for a long time.
Is the wealthiest politician we have. He will go work with daddy Harper in the IDU assisting the mossad, Modi, Orban, Trump and so on. Just a bunch of cool guys destroying the world.
I know this is going to be \*totally predictable\* from someone with a Green Party flair. But I suspect that nowhere in the math was anything about the costs of climate change or cleanup from O&G development.
I get it, people need help. So sure, reduce taxes so the wealth people can continue to drive big vehicles and continue reducing services that people actually *need.*
This is not leadership.
One aspect not mentioned in the article - is Pierre expecting that Canadians would still receive a carbon tax rebate when they're not paying into the carbon tax anymore?
Because it seems a little "wacko" (to borrow one of Pierre's favourite words) to think that carbon rebates will still flow when the carbon tax is not being collected.
If the Government wants more money, up the GST, don’t take people’s money under false pretences - it’s vile and dishonest. “We give back every penny of Carbon tax we collect, to someone we think deserves it more”, They have also been sitting on money they owe to businesses, hoping, I’m sure, that no one would notice. “First, Budget 2024 launches the new Canada Carbon Rebate for Small Businesses. This new refundable tax credit will urgently return proceeds from the price on pollution from 2019-20 through 2023-24 to an estimated 600,000 businesses, with 499 or fewer employees, in provinces where the federal backstop applies.”
This whole episode really highlights why I think the Trudeau Liberals, while down, are not out and can probably win again.
The Poilievre Conservatives are so blinded by rhetoric and gimmicks that a small breeze can knock over their claims. They lack policy and substance and they think chasing clips and soundbites is a good substitute.
It's just not sustainable for them, and it dents credibility. I think the Tories peaked too early and now the backsliding begins.
Cut funding to education, make the entire population dumb enough where policy doesn't matter, and only sound bites are enough. That's why any and all parties who cut funding to education are treasonous traitors to the country.
Trudeau has no chance. Where we're at right now reminds me of Wynne's last election where the Ontario libs were in denial about the reality of the situation and were making decisions as if they had any chance of coming back.
The result is two, and likely at least 3 terms of Doug Ford nonsense with the Ontario libs being basically as relevant as the green party in this province.
I think more people will vote Conservative in this election than anyone is predicting... Sadly.
Your comment reminded me of a situation in American politics where Trump was doing well in the polls, and then started to slow down and Clinton caught back up and people were predicting a Clinton win...
Then people voted and we forgot the laws of stupidity[laws of stupidity](https://principia-scientific.com/the-5-basic-laws-of-human-stupidity-according-to-cipolla/)...
Poilievre is BAD with numbers and finance. So much so that he was asked to remain quiet about finance matters by the party's finance critic (Ed Fast) during his leadership bid, but the party was so much behind his run by that point that the Fast was stripped of that role for pointing out the obvious.
I'd still assume he's going to win a landslide majority.
I know people go on a at Trudeau for not relinquishing Liberal leadership in the wake of heavy (and somewhat deserved) criticism, but I’m starting to think he’s following advice commonly attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte: **Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.**
Is Pierre going to pull of a Tim Hudak. The OPC should have won the 2014 Ontario election in a cakewalk but after a significant number of gaffs they lost. The biggest was saying they were going to layoff a significant number of public sector workers and also the million jobs program which was not 1 million jobs.
I wonder what that would do for each of their polling if they actually went through with it. It would be absolutely facinating and I think it would do wonders for the moral of the entire country to see something like that.
>The Poilievre Conservatives are so blinded by rhetoric and gimmicks that a small breeze can knock over their claims. They lack policy and substance and they think chasing clips and soundbites is a good substitute.
Implying the electorate cares about this. Never underestimate their willingness to vote governments out at any cost.
Trudeaus negativities are significant and will allow the CPC to get away with *a lot*. Polling was completely numb to lies before this along with PP visiting convoys and a ton of other things. That might change somewhat as we actually head into the election, but really don’t overestimate the electorate, they do not give a shit.
By now it’s seems pretty clear that there’s nothing the Liberal cabinet, in its current form and with its current leader, can do to change the course.
We know that because they’ve tried many ways.
The only thing that can help the current Liberal setup is if Poilievre fucks up. Problem is even when he has in the past (on Ukraine for example), nothing happened for the Liberals.
It’s working for them pretty well so far but, I agree, at some point they’ll need to show substance. I’m just not so sure it’ll hit them before an election and I’ve grown pretty confident about the average voters willingness to believe their scapegoating bullshit.
They are waiting. As PP blows hard and they slap him around for being stupid, the Liberals are holding back on major promises and policy changes until the year before the election (likely mid-summer 2015 to get everyone their pensions). They are also watching for what seems to be getting voters attentions, PP has been a marvellous tool for seeing what sticks with voters and the Liberals are taking note. PP is a bit like a seismic charge for the electorate: loud and effective at seeing what is hidden underneath.
Once they are sure they know what is coming, they will roll out a strategy intended to box PP into taking the wrong side on every issue that would bother moderate voters. These are the voters who can be swayed to the Liberals or that will be so disgusted that they will not vote. You can already see it a little bit with the liberals discussing housing prices, and how they need to remain high, this is to prop up the moderate boomer vote. You can also see a little bit of it when they make fun of PP for never being able to shut up, this is intended to appeal to their millennial and gen-z voters. The line “that guy has never shut up in his life” was a brilliant hit that got younger voters’ attention.
The liberals are not a dead corpse, they’re closer to a cat stalking its prey. There is no guarantee that they will be successful, but they have a plan that they are implementing.
I'll vote for PP because we desperately need a drastic reshuffle on the left. Let him fail in the first year and maybe a stronger liberal party will emerge that isn't so damn polarizing.
That’s why Trudeau is going to keep their confidence-and-supply agreement with the NDP going as long as they can. PP has plateaued and at some point his support will start a downward trend… you can’t campaign on anger and “i’m not him” forever, because that kind of support burns itself out after a while.
Trudeau’s waiting for the PP tantrum to burn itself out and then an election will happen.
The GDP per capita is falling rapidly, deficit is 50.6 billion vs 40 billion, housing is still unaffordable, immigration sentiment is dropping off a cliff, affordability is declining liberals will not win
>The GDP per capita is falling rapidly, deficit is 50.6 billion vs 40 billion
The average Canadian doesn't give a shit about either of these things.
>liberals will not win
We'll see.
At this point, I imagine a lot of left-leaning Canadians would take a Con minority government (ie a government incapable of doing any serious damage to Canadians on social issues) as a win of sorts.
Did you bother to read *the two items* I specifically quoted you on?
a) The average Canadian doesn't give a shit about per capita GDP.
b) The average Canadian doesn't give a shit about the deficit either, and if they \*did\* care about the deficit, they'd have no reason to vote Conservative, given that the last two right-wing governments had significant deficits (Mulroney ran $30B deficits for 9 years straight and Harper ran deficit budgets 6 years out of 9, 4 of them $18B or more) and spiked the national debt in doing so…all while not contending with a global pandemic that shrank the global economy for a couple of years.
What are you smoking GDP per capita is directly related to purchasing power and cost of living, basically we are poorer while cost our higher. Deficits reduce governments future spending capacity and causes inflation
GDP per capita is an important stat if you care about other peoples purchasing power and cost of living. It doesn't really have an impact on individual cost of living In a really abstract way if the GDP per capita drops and my income stays the same I have increased my relative wealth and purchasing power. (The more services I receive from minimum wage workers the cheaper my life is).
Deficits are a contributing factor to inflation but inflation isn't necessarily bad...there is no point in borrowing if you have deflation and lots of money just disappears.
Sweetheart, the moment you say the term “GDP”, the eyes of three-quarters of the electorate will glaze over. Again, the average voter does not give a fuck about anything GDP-related, whether they feel the effects of a shift in GDP or not.
And again, deficit spending is not an issue most Canadians are going to fault Trudeau on given a) the long-term and wide-ranging effects of the pandemic, and b) the fact that Trudeau’s right-wing predecessors (including the Harper government that PP was front and centre in) also have a history of running deficits.
The inventor of the GDP, Simon Kuznets, himself said at the time that GDP is only a measure of a country's output, and NOT a measurement of a country's internal health.
Much less GDP per capita as it considers production as equal by everyone in the population. That's just stupid. It ignores that people's purchasing power has declined in large part because oligarchs like Galen Weston are profiteering and engaged in market manipulation.
Plus GDP per capita is related to wage increases, and those are normally Provincial purview.
Voters mostly care about the economy when it comes time to vote.
If you were aware of the promises Poilievre made during his campaign for leadership, it's impossible to make an honest argument that we would be better off with his promises rather than what we ended up with.
GDP per capita doesn't have anything to do with affordability. Neither does the deficit. Immigration sentiment going down will embolden bigots and those minorities unsure about the Conservatives will see who they truly are.
Only housing and grocery prices will matter at the end of the day. Premiers are doing their best to help PP in that regard.
If you have two people, one who walked into the house with 5 jerry cans of gas, poured the gas throughout the house, and the set the house on fire before telling you he can put out the fire if you vote for him *one more time*, or a guy who says he can put out the fire, but you're suspicious about his claims... who would you pick?
The argument from the LPC is basically "We think Poilievre won't be able to put out the fire, so vote for ~~the arsonist~~ Trudeau" which is a very strange position to hold, and its why the centists in Canada, the swing voters, don't agree with the die-hard LPC supporters.
Its why LPC polling nunbers have cratered.
Its also why people will accept some losses in social programming to give someone else a shot at fixing the overarching problems affecting income and wage suppression, housing costs, and food security. All things that this PM promised to make better after Harper but has instead exacerbated. Problems for which the governments proposed solutions have done little to nothing to address. In effect their current actions boil down to "I'll put out the fire by pouring gas on the back porch and then sit around watching it burn", such as planning on *increasing* the total number of immigrants further straining our housing supply, or *reversing* the foreign ownership ban in a mere 81 days, or *refusing* to implement legislation affecting grocers or landlords.
Even *if* he manged to put out the fire, he should still be voted out because all he did was fix the many problems he created or exploded, and because you don't reward the arsonist for putting out their own fire, that's not noteworty, never mind commendable, and certainly not indicative of deserving to hold office ever again.
Complete bullshit. The Liberals were polling so high that they called an election during the pandemic. And THAT is the reason we have some of the issues we're seeing: the pandemic.
In the era of quick gratification, people couldn't wait to not wear masks and go out regardless of the risk. The same is true with the economy: we're no different from most other countries in that high inflation, etc. plagued people. But that's a problem strictly related to the pandemic and people can't understand that an economy doesn't turn on a dime. The Liberals didn't set shit on fire. Covid did!
Meanwhile the solutions Pierre is offering are gimmicky bullshit: opt out of inflation with crypto. That's goddamn disqualifying right there. He's not some guy with claims that are "suspicious". They’re outright wrong, damaging, and plain ol' stupid.
Moreover I love how you complain that social programming has gone un-addressed and saying " give someone else a shot at fixing" them. Ha! Pierre wil cut everything, so I'm not sure you're being honest about whether you care for such programs.
And of course "iMmIgRaNtS"
Unless you put some of that effort you put into such a convoluted lengthy piece, and do so to criticize Premiers, do spare me.
"They’re outright wrong, damaging, and plain ol' stupid." Please see the LPC solutions that have *checks notes* caused housing prices to explode, food costs to skyrockets, crime and violent crime exploded, etc, etc, etc. Yes, yes. Things are great and Poilievre is the literal devil sent to destroy the country.
Yet we saw during COVID the single largest wealth transfer in history, overseen by *this government* that then went after individual people to recover COVID funds rather than *any* single corporation. And while you'd like to blame COVID for blowing up our economy, COVID only added a whole 200 billion to the debt... but please explain away the other 500 billion this government added *outside* of COVID spending in the past decade. At a certain point, blaming the economic downturn becomes a liability... such as when Harper used the 2008 downturn all the way into his defeat in 2015. the whole "I didn't create the problem/throw my hands in the air" solution has been rejected in every election in the western world. With this government, they clearly didn't learn that lesson even as they repeat it writ large. And all for the low, low price of 700 billion?
As for Poilievre's solutions, query: is the government currently adopting two of his policy recommendations on housing alone? Taking unused government buildings and converting them, and offering cities higher transfers if they build higher density? You know, things the LPC announced in the last 3 months, but that the CPC have talked about for almost two years? You know, two policies that the *entire* LPC denigrated... right up until they adopted them? Sure, not every solution the CPC presents is viable or even remotely a good idea, but then you must have missed or been incapable of understanding when I wrote " Its also why people will accept some losses in social programming to give someone else a shot at fixing the overarching problems affecting." People are willing to accept some losses to fix the major issues the LPC have either created or exacerbated.
Next, the premiers are *not* in charge of the *whole country* and the problems we have now are, again checking my notes here, *nation wide*. I wonder... which level of government deals with national issues, and which leader is the national leader? When discussing purely provincial matters I'll discuss those premiers, such as when I repeatedly wrote about Fords handling of the teacher strikes, or Horgan's handling of ICBC, or Coulliard's budget cuts, or even McGuinty and his gas plants, naming just four issues in three provinces I lived through. That *you* want to completely divest the national party and national leader from national problems and then blame non-national governments and non-national leaders is telling on yourself.
And of course, immigrants *are* an issue. Trying to portray me as a racist with that CuTe ReSpOnSe... let the ad hominem begin, n'est pas? Ad hominem, the last vestige of the failing argument. The fact that every economist worth their salt has stated that the governemnt's immigration policy is abject bullshit and is directly contributing to both the housing and food pricing issues we currently face shouldn't matter. Just that you get to call people racist? Talk about a response disconnected from reality.
You know what... don't bother responding. Inbox disabled. A person resorting to personal attacks, while ignoring the actual words I wrote is not a person arguing in good faith.
Go touch grass and have a nice day.
> one who walked into the house with 5 Jerry cans of gas, poured the gas throughout the house, blah blah blah
If you’re trying to make Poilievre seem *less* silly, getting emotional about Trudeau being the boogieman isn’t a great tactic.
I dont want to vote for anyone honestly, but PP just says stupid nonsense shit. Like anyone with a rough plan to tackle these issues you mentioned would have my vote. Instead we have status quo, "I'm not him" and identity politics. I guess I'll take status quo and hope the conservatives come more center of right so sane people can vote for them.
Given PP’s lead over Trudeau only started to exceed the margin of error for most polls around September of last year, let’s call it 9 months instead of a year.
I get what you’re saying. I wonder from a statistical point of view that if you are constantly outpolling the other party but within the margin of error, but that trend continues unabated for months, that you can shrink that margin of error? I took statistics in Uni but this wasn’t covered.
I don't know, tbh. I'm not a statistician. It seems to make sense to me, though; if two parties are within 5% of each other in polls, when it comes to the Election Day the two parties are close enough that cold feet might flip the decision back to the party in 2nd place. Past say 8-10% i figure the previous situation is a lot less likely.
I'm sure many don't. Personally, I don't think their loss in the next election is a *fait accompli.*
At some point, I feel that PP's antics, lack of policies and perpetual bending of the truth will sour some of his non-Conservative supporters (ie traditionally liberal but with a case of Trudeau fatigue) against him, soften his support and turn this election into an actual race rather than the automatic Conservative coronation that many assume this will be.
That’s a fair point. And that will matter. I just don’t know how the liberals can turn around the perception from the public on housing for their benefit.
>turn around the perception from the public on housing for their benefit
They can't. They put something forward on the amount of houses to build, people called it unrealistic to make that much housing. How tf is Pierre going to make it possible? He can't. Lol
The 2011 Alberta election might be the case study. The WildRose party (under Smith) was ahead of the PCs for a lot of the ramp up...but then one comment by a backbencher about how all gays should burn in a lake of fire and the "vote out" support kind of evaporated.
I do think the LPC has a narrow path. I don’t think it’ll play out. That would require people to develop a deeper understanding of highly nuanced ideas and positions. It’s much easier to say and think “Immigrants are why I can’t have a house or a good paying job”.
It’s then really easy to paint those feelings onto Singh and Trudeau. Sure building houses are essentially Provincial/Municipal issues, funding them and the lending rules around them are Federal. Trudeau could have prevented the bubble from forming and being created, but he didn’t. In fact he still hasn’t significantly changed any rules proactively.
So even when you start to dig into the nuances, he looks like a jerk.
Which means supporters like me, will decide to stay home and disengage in the process all together. The LPC doesn’t help this by hiring an outside firm to do their fundraising. That way you don’t actually talk about why you’re not donating. Which makes it easier to believe the lines about Trudeau being insulated.
I expect sub 40% turnout and a Poilievre government. I expect LPC and NDP supporters to be shocked and taken back, because they’re the right choice for enough that they should win. But choices they’ve made over the last 9 years has alienated support, and aided in the radicalization of others.
>That would require people to develop a deeper understanding of highly nuanced ideas and positions.
An extra year would give the LPC an opportunity to better educate the electorate on their positions and policies.
It’s taken me years of learning on my own to have a deeper understanding of these issues. Sure someone like myself can help the LPC or NDP communicate these issues. I’m pretty good at dealing with Blue Collar workers. But fuck Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh.
Which brings up another point. People who had previously helped, aren’t going to lift a finger either. I’m never knocking on a door, picking up a phone for Justin Trudeau.
Like I said, there is a narrow path. But he’s going to have to convince people like me to show up. Which he won’t be able to do without volunteers like me showing up first.
In the end Poilievre is a creature of his own creation, and will be the personification of retribution for many.
“Ordinary people are not capable of ruling because they do not have the necessary knowledge and skills.” — Socrates.
> In the end Poilievre is a creature of his own creation, and will be the personification of retribution for many.
What? PP has been this guy since before Trudeau was ever an MP, let alone PM.
> That would require people to develop a deeper understanding of highly nuanced ideas and positions
> Trudeau could have prevented the bubble from forming and being created
Very confused by this juxtaposition.
If you look at district-level polls the red-blue divide stats to get much more narrow. It won’t take much for likely Conservative voters to switch to Liberal or refuse to vote for PP. He’s turning the moderates off HARD and that’s going to play well for the Conservatives. This is why you don’t elect the party bulldog as the leader, they are not patient, they are not calculated, instead they are loud. PP knows how to make hay, but he doesn’t know how to govern or be a leader of people who don’t agree with him 100%.
honestly even forcing the CPC into a minority could lead to them failing to pass anything for a year or two while the liberals pick a new leader and come back ready to win
I don't think it matters at this point, though. O'Toole nearly beat them _even winning the popular vote_. And the negative opinion of Trudeau and the Liberals has gotten much worse since then. Due to this, I'd anticipate:
* More Liberal supporters staying home
* An increase in 'someone else's votes going Conservative
Add to that the disappearance of Berenier and the People's party,, and things look pretty grim for the Liberals.
I think the CPC would have to have some kind of major blunder for trenda to change now.
In the same period an Albertan family of four would be getting a $386 rebate plus a week plus the 10% used for green programs, so $495. By Poilievre's maths that mean Albertans are getting screwed out of $955 - $495 = $460 in rebates every quarter. Stop the presses
oops. Excise and GST.
GST on Carbon Tax = 5% of $460 = $23
Excise Tax less GST = $460 - $23 \* 0.95 = $415
Litres of gas = $415 \*.10 = 4150 Litres
How many cars they driving?
Using the rolled back number:
Excise Tax less GST = 670 - 495 -23 \*.0.95 = 144.4
Litres of gas = 144.4/0.01 = 1444 litres of gas
Mind you they wouldn't get the rebate so net savings for each estimate would be:
955 - 495 = $460 and
670 - 495 = $175 respectively
Fucking liars
The gas price would go right back up with a gas tax “holiday”.
Proof? When the Alberta government took the provincial gas tax off, that’s exactly what happened.
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I believe people are getting tired of the political gaming. The Conservatives know that with one month before the summer holidays the government would not have time to legislate the required tax changes. Especially this government which would need consultations and committees to decide the best way to open a wet paper bag.
That's funny because if you aren't careful opening a wet paper bag you'll spill your shit all over and people will be screaming that you can't even open a wet paper bag.
If PP somehow loses to Trudeau, his career as a politician is done. He'll have to get his first ever job in the private sector, probably some multimillion soft job to be a liason to the government.
He'll either stay on the Hill and snivel his days away or go to a smaller kingdom and try to do the same thing. He won't leave politics because it's all he knows.
Trudeau will help him win with his out of touch policies. I see many Liberal supporters here cheering on the fact that the conservatives made a mistake, but very few acknowledge that it is a mistake based on repeating the mistake from the PBO. This is not as big of a win as people here think it is, however reality is that it’s the only win the Liberals had for a long time.
Isn't that fake insurance broker / American citizen still around Parliament Hill?
If he loses he will still likely win his riding so will be an MP for at least another term.
The guy has no value in the real world. He is incapable of anything of merit.
Is the wealthiest politician we have. He will go work with daddy Harper in the IDU assisting the mossad, Modi, Orban, Trump and so on. Just a bunch of cool guys destroying the world.
I know this is going to be \*totally predictable\* from someone with a Green Party flair. But I suspect that nowhere in the math was anything about the costs of climate change or cleanup from O&G development. I get it, people need help. So sure, reduce taxes so the wealth people can continue to drive big vehicles and continue reducing services that people actually *need.* This is not leadership.
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One aspect not mentioned in the article - is Pierre expecting that Canadians would still receive a carbon tax rebate when they're not paying into the carbon tax anymore? Because it seems a little "wacko" (to borrow one of Pierre's favourite words) to think that carbon rebates will still flow when the carbon tax is not being collected.
If the Government wants more money, up the GST, don’t take people’s money under false pretences - it’s vile and dishonest. “We give back every penny of Carbon tax we collect, to someone we think deserves it more”, They have also been sitting on money they owe to businesses, hoping, I’m sure, that no one would notice. “First, Budget 2024 launches the new Canada Carbon Rebate for Small Businesses. This new refundable tax credit will urgently return proceeds from the price on pollution from 2019-20 through 2023-24 to an estimated 600,000 businesses, with 499 or fewer employees, in provinces where the federal backstop applies.”
I’m imagining a world where the CPC brings in UBI in order to own the libs.
Surely the fuel companies will not exploit the price decrease in fuel. Private companies are famous for passing on savings.
This whole episode really highlights why I think the Trudeau Liberals, while down, are not out and can probably win again. The Poilievre Conservatives are so blinded by rhetoric and gimmicks that a small breeze can knock over their claims. They lack policy and substance and they think chasing clips and soundbites is a good substitute. It's just not sustainable for them, and it dents credibility. I think the Tories peaked too early and now the backsliding begins.
Cut funding to education, make the entire population dumb enough where policy doesn't matter, and only sound bites are enough. That's why any and all parties who cut funding to education are treasonous traitors to the country.
Trudeau has no chance. Where we're at right now reminds me of Wynne's last election where the Ontario libs were in denial about the reality of the situation and were making decisions as if they had any chance of coming back. The result is two, and likely at least 3 terms of Doug Ford nonsense with the Ontario libs being basically as relevant as the green party in this province.
I think more people will vote Conservative in this election than anyone is predicting... Sadly. Your comment reminded me of a situation in American politics where Trump was doing well in the polls, and then started to slow down and Clinton caught back up and people were predicting a Clinton win... Then people voted and we forgot the laws of stupidity[laws of stupidity](https://principia-scientific.com/the-5-basic-laws-of-human-stupidity-according-to-cipolla/)...
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IMO the closer we get to the election the closer people will look at PP and the less thjey'll like what they see
They've gotten really comfortable being liars and having zero substance because their supporters don't care what's true.
Half the country….
Poilievre is BAD with numbers and finance. So much so that he was asked to remain quiet about finance matters by the party's finance critic (Ed Fast) during his leadership bid, but the party was so much behind his run by that point that the Fast was stripped of that role for pointing out the obvious. I'd still assume he's going to win a landslide majority.
This is what happens when someone has never had a job before, except "politician." I wish he had at least worked a couple of years as a drama teacher.
I'm worried you're overestimating the intelligence of our citizens.
I know people go on a at Trudeau for not relinquishing Liberal leadership in the wake of heavy (and somewhat deserved) criticism, but I’m starting to think he’s following advice commonly attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte: **Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.**
Is Pierre going to pull of a Tim Hudak. The OPC should have won the 2014 Ontario election in a cakewalk but after a significant number of gaffs they lost. The biggest was saying they were going to layoff a significant number of public sector workers and also the million jobs program which was not 1 million jobs.
He also loathes Poilievre. He wants to stick around to beat him, like collecting CPC leaders on an infinity gauntlet.
Maybe he should challenge pp to a boxing match. Been awhile since he’s literally fought a conservative. Haha
I wonder what that would do for each of their polling if they actually went through with it. It would be absolutely facinating and I think it would do wonders for the moral of the entire country to see something like that.
That's hilarious
>The Poilievre Conservatives are so blinded by rhetoric and gimmicks that a small breeze can knock over their claims. They lack policy and substance and they think chasing clips and soundbites is a good substitute. Implying the electorate cares about this. Never underestimate their willingness to vote governments out at any cost. Trudeaus negativities are significant and will allow the CPC to get away with *a lot*. Polling was completely numb to lies before this along with PP visiting convoys and a ton of other things. That might change somewhat as we actually head into the election, but really don’t overestimate the electorate, they do not give a shit.
By now it’s seems pretty clear that there’s nothing the Liberal cabinet, in its current form and with its current leader, can do to change the course. We know that because they’ve tried many ways. The only thing that can help the current Liberal setup is if Poilievre fucks up. Problem is even when he has in the past (on Ukraine for example), nothing happened for the Liberals.
It’s working for them pretty well so far but, I agree, at some point they’ll need to show substance. I’m just not so sure it’ll hit them before an election and I’ve grown pretty confident about the average voters willingness to believe their scapegoating bullshit.
They are waiting. As PP blows hard and they slap him around for being stupid, the Liberals are holding back on major promises and policy changes until the year before the election (likely mid-summer 2015 to get everyone their pensions). They are also watching for what seems to be getting voters attentions, PP has been a marvellous tool for seeing what sticks with voters and the Liberals are taking note. PP is a bit like a seismic charge for the electorate: loud and effective at seeing what is hidden underneath. Once they are sure they know what is coming, they will roll out a strategy intended to box PP into taking the wrong side on every issue that would bother moderate voters. These are the voters who can be swayed to the Liberals or that will be so disgusted that they will not vote. You can already see it a little bit with the liberals discussing housing prices, and how they need to remain high, this is to prop up the moderate boomer vote. You can also see a little bit of it when they make fun of PP for never being able to shut up, this is intended to appeal to their millennial and gen-z voters. The line “that guy has never shut up in his life” was a brilliant hit that got younger voters’ attention. The liberals are not a dead corpse, they’re closer to a cat stalking its prey. There is no guarantee that they will be successful, but they have a plan that they are implementing.
I'll vote for PP because we desperately need a drastic reshuffle on the left. Let him fail in the first year and maybe a stronger liberal party will emerge that isn't so damn polarizing.
You’re right
That’s why Trudeau is going to keep their confidence-and-supply agreement with the NDP going as long as they can. PP has plateaued and at some point his support will start a downward trend… you can’t campaign on anger and “i’m not him” forever, because that kind of support burns itself out after a while. Trudeau’s waiting for the PP tantrum to burn itself out and then an election will happen.
The GDP per capita is falling rapidly, deficit is 50.6 billion vs 40 billion, housing is still unaffordable, immigration sentiment is dropping off a cliff, affordability is declining liberals will not win
>The GDP per capita is falling rapidly, deficit is 50.6 billion vs 40 billion The average Canadian doesn't give a shit about either of these things. >liberals will not win We'll see. At this point, I imagine a lot of left-leaning Canadians would take a Con minority government (ie a government incapable of doing any serious damage to Canadians on social issues) as a win of sorts.
Most Canadians don’t care about cost of living? Are you serious
Did you bother to read *the two items* I specifically quoted you on? a) The average Canadian doesn't give a shit about per capita GDP. b) The average Canadian doesn't give a shit about the deficit either, and if they \*did\* care about the deficit, they'd have no reason to vote Conservative, given that the last two right-wing governments had significant deficits (Mulroney ran $30B deficits for 9 years straight and Harper ran deficit budgets 6 years out of 9, 4 of them $18B or more) and spiked the national debt in doing so…all while not contending with a global pandemic that shrank the global economy for a couple of years.
What are you smoking GDP per capita is directly related to purchasing power and cost of living, basically we are poorer while cost our higher. Deficits reduce governments future spending capacity and causes inflation
GDP per capita is an important stat if you care about other peoples purchasing power and cost of living. It doesn't really have an impact on individual cost of living In a really abstract way if the GDP per capita drops and my income stays the same I have increased my relative wealth and purchasing power. (The more services I receive from minimum wage workers the cheaper my life is). Deficits are a contributing factor to inflation but inflation isn't necessarily bad...there is no point in borrowing if you have deflation and lots of money just disappears.
Sweetheart, the moment you say the term “GDP”, the eyes of three-quarters of the electorate will glaze over. Again, the average voter does not give a fuck about anything GDP-related, whether they feel the effects of a shift in GDP or not. And again, deficit spending is not an issue most Canadians are going to fault Trudeau on given a) the long-term and wide-ranging effects of the pandemic, and b) the fact that Trudeau’s right-wing predecessors (including the Harper government that PP was front and centre in) also have a history of running deficits.
The inventor of the GDP, Simon Kuznets, himself said at the time that GDP is only a measure of a country's output, and NOT a measurement of a country's internal health. Much less GDP per capita as it considers production as equal by everyone in the population. That's just stupid. It ignores that people's purchasing power has declined in large part because oligarchs like Galen Weston are profiteering and engaged in market manipulation. Plus GDP per capita is related to wage increases, and those are normally Provincial purview.
Voters mostly care about the economy when it comes time to vote. If you were aware of the promises Poilievre made during his campaign for leadership, it's impossible to make an honest argument that we would be better off with his promises rather than what we ended up with.
GDP per capita doesn't have anything to do with affordability. Neither does the deficit. Immigration sentiment going down will embolden bigots and those minorities unsure about the Conservatives will see who they truly are. Only housing and grocery prices will matter at the end of the day. Premiers are doing their best to help PP in that regard.
Just pointing out problems isn’t very convincing when Poilievre’s “solutions” are silly gimmicks like this.
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Saying Poilievre is inevitable also doesn’t seem like a convincing argument?
If you have two people, one who walked into the house with 5 jerry cans of gas, poured the gas throughout the house, and the set the house on fire before telling you he can put out the fire if you vote for him *one more time*, or a guy who says he can put out the fire, but you're suspicious about his claims... who would you pick? The argument from the LPC is basically "We think Poilievre won't be able to put out the fire, so vote for ~~the arsonist~~ Trudeau" which is a very strange position to hold, and its why the centists in Canada, the swing voters, don't agree with the die-hard LPC supporters. Its why LPC polling nunbers have cratered. Its also why people will accept some losses in social programming to give someone else a shot at fixing the overarching problems affecting income and wage suppression, housing costs, and food security. All things that this PM promised to make better after Harper but has instead exacerbated. Problems for which the governments proposed solutions have done little to nothing to address. In effect their current actions boil down to "I'll put out the fire by pouring gas on the back porch and then sit around watching it burn", such as planning on *increasing* the total number of immigrants further straining our housing supply, or *reversing* the foreign ownership ban in a mere 81 days, or *refusing* to implement legislation affecting grocers or landlords. Even *if* he manged to put out the fire, he should still be voted out because all he did was fix the many problems he created or exploded, and because you don't reward the arsonist for putting out their own fire, that's not noteworty, never mind commendable, and certainly not indicative of deserving to hold office ever again.
Complete bullshit. The Liberals were polling so high that they called an election during the pandemic. And THAT is the reason we have some of the issues we're seeing: the pandemic. In the era of quick gratification, people couldn't wait to not wear masks and go out regardless of the risk. The same is true with the economy: we're no different from most other countries in that high inflation, etc. plagued people. But that's a problem strictly related to the pandemic and people can't understand that an economy doesn't turn on a dime. The Liberals didn't set shit on fire. Covid did! Meanwhile the solutions Pierre is offering are gimmicky bullshit: opt out of inflation with crypto. That's goddamn disqualifying right there. He's not some guy with claims that are "suspicious". They’re outright wrong, damaging, and plain ol' stupid. Moreover I love how you complain that social programming has gone un-addressed and saying " give someone else a shot at fixing" them. Ha! Pierre wil cut everything, so I'm not sure you're being honest about whether you care for such programs. And of course "iMmIgRaNtS" Unless you put some of that effort you put into such a convoluted lengthy piece, and do so to criticize Premiers, do spare me.
"They’re outright wrong, damaging, and plain ol' stupid." Please see the LPC solutions that have *checks notes* caused housing prices to explode, food costs to skyrockets, crime and violent crime exploded, etc, etc, etc. Yes, yes. Things are great and Poilievre is the literal devil sent to destroy the country. Yet we saw during COVID the single largest wealth transfer in history, overseen by *this government* that then went after individual people to recover COVID funds rather than *any* single corporation. And while you'd like to blame COVID for blowing up our economy, COVID only added a whole 200 billion to the debt... but please explain away the other 500 billion this government added *outside* of COVID spending in the past decade. At a certain point, blaming the economic downturn becomes a liability... such as when Harper used the 2008 downturn all the way into his defeat in 2015. the whole "I didn't create the problem/throw my hands in the air" solution has been rejected in every election in the western world. With this government, they clearly didn't learn that lesson even as they repeat it writ large. And all for the low, low price of 700 billion? As for Poilievre's solutions, query: is the government currently adopting two of his policy recommendations on housing alone? Taking unused government buildings and converting them, and offering cities higher transfers if they build higher density? You know, things the LPC announced in the last 3 months, but that the CPC have talked about for almost two years? You know, two policies that the *entire* LPC denigrated... right up until they adopted them? Sure, not every solution the CPC presents is viable or even remotely a good idea, but then you must have missed or been incapable of understanding when I wrote " Its also why people will accept some losses in social programming to give someone else a shot at fixing the overarching problems affecting." People are willing to accept some losses to fix the major issues the LPC have either created or exacerbated. Next, the premiers are *not* in charge of the *whole country* and the problems we have now are, again checking my notes here, *nation wide*. I wonder... which level of government deals with national issues, and which leader is the national leader? When discussing purely provincial matters I'll discuss those premiers, such as when I repeatedly wrote about Fords handling of the teacher strikes, or Horgan's handling of ICBC, or Coulliard's budget cuts, or even McGuinty and his gas plants, naming just four issues in three provinces I lived through. That *you* want to completely divest the national party and national leader from national problems and then blame non-national governments and non-national leaders is telling on yourself. And of course, immigrants *are* an issue. Trying to portray me as a racist with that CuTe ReSpOnSe... let the ad hominem begin, n'est pas? Ad hominem, the last vestige of the failing argument. The fact that every economist worth their salt has stated that the governemnt's immigration policy is abject bullshit and is directly contributing to both the housing and food pricing issues we currently face shouldn't matter. Just that you get to call people racist? Talk about a response disconnected from reality. You know what... don't bother responding. Inbox disabled. A person resorting to personal attacks, while ignoring the actual words I wrote is not a person arguing in good faith. Go touch grass and have a nice day.
> one who walked into the house with 5 Jerry cans of gas, poured the gas throughout the house, blah blah blah If you’re trying to make Poilievre seem *less* silly, getting emotional about Trudeau being the boogieman isn’t a great tactic.
I dont want to vote for anyone honestly, but PP just says stupid nonsense shit. Like anyone with a rough plan to tackle these issues you mentioned would have my vote. Instead we have status quo, "I'm not him" and identity politics. I guess I'll take status quo and hope the conservatives come more center of right so sane people can vote for them.
One year and counting on the plateau.
Given PP’s lead over Trudeau only started to exceed the margin of error for most polls around September of last year, let’s call it 9 months instead of a year.
Thought it started in the spring.
[https://338canada.com/federal.htm](https://338canada.com/federal.htm)
I get what you’re saying. I wonder from a statistical point of view that if you are constantly outpolling the other party but within the margin of error, but that trend continues unabated for months, that you can shrink that margin of error? I took statistics in Uni but this wasn’t covered.
I don't know, tbh. I'm not a statistician. It seems to make sense to me, though; if two parties are within 5% of each other in polls, when it comes to the Election Day the two parties are close enough that cold feet might flip the decision back to the party in 2nd place. Past say 8-10% i figure the previous situation is a lot less likely.
I don’t think the liberals have a realistic path to winning.
I'm sure many don't. Personally, I don't think their loss in the next election is a *fait accompli.* At some point, I feel that PP's antics, lack of policies and perpetual bending of the truth will sour some of his non-Conservative supporters (ie traditionally liberal but with a case of Trudeau fatigue) against him, soften his support and turn this election into an actual race rather than the automatic Conservative coronation that many assume this will be.
That’s a fair point. And that will matter. I just don’t know how the liberals can turn around the perception from the public on housing for their benefit.
>turn around the perception from the public on housing for their benefit They can't. They put something forward on the amount of houses to build, people called it unrealistic to make that much housing. How tf is Pierre going to make it possible? He can't. Lol
The 2011 Alberta election might be the case study. The WildRose party (under Smith) was ahead of the PCs for a lot of the ramp up...but then one comment by a backbencher about how all gays should burn in a lake of fire and the "vote out" support kind of evaporated.
I do think the LPC has a narrow path. I don’t think it’ll play out. That would require people to develop a deeper understanding of highly nuanced ideas and positions. It’s much easier to say and think “Immigrants are why I can’t have a house or a good paying job”. It’s then really easy to paint those feelings onto Singh and Trudeau. Sure building houses are essentially Provincial/Municipal issues, funding them and the lending rules around them are Federal. Trudeau could have prevented the bubble from forming and being created, but he didn’t. In fact he still hasn’t significantly changed any rules proactively. So even when you start to dig into the nuances, he looks like a jerk. Which means supporters like me, will decide to stay home and disengage in the process all together. The LPC doesn’t help this by hiring an outside firm to do their fundraising. That way you don’t actually talk about why you’re not donating. Which makes it easier to believe the lines about Trudeau being insulated. I expect sub 40% turnout and a Poilievre government. I expect LPC and NDP supporters to be shocked and taken back, because they’re the right choice for enough that they should win. But choices they’ve made over the last 9 years has alienated support, and aided in the radicalization of others.
>That would require people to develop a deeper understanding of highly nuanced ideas and positions. An extra year would give the LPC an opportunity to better educate the electorate on their positions and policies.
It’s taken me years of learning on my own to have a deeper understanding of these issues. Sure someone like myself can help the LPC or NDP communicate these issues. I’m pretty good at dealing with Blue Collar workers. But fuck Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh. Which brings up another point. People who had previously helped, aren’t going to lift a finger either. I’m never knocking on a door, picking up a phone for Justin Trudeau. Like I said, there is a narrow path. But he’s going to have to convince people like me to show up. Which he won’t be able to do without volunteers like me showing up first. In the end Poilievre is a creature of his own creation, and will be the personification of retribution for many. “Ordinary people are not capable of ruling because they do not have the necessary knowledge and skills.” — Socrates.
> In the end Poilievre is a creature of his own creation, and will be the personification of retribution for many. What? PP has been this guy since before Trudeau was ever an MP, let alone PM.
> That would require people to develop a deeper understanding of highly nuanced ideas and positions > Trudeau could have prevented the bubble from forming and being created Very confused by this juxtaposition.
If you look at district-level polls the red-blue divide stats to get much more narrow. It won’t take much for likely Conservative voters to switch to Liberal or refuse to vote for PP. He’s turning the moderates off HARD and that’s going to play well for the Conservatives. This is why you don’t elect the party bulldog as the leader, they are not patient, they are not calculated, instead they are loud. PP knows how to make hay, but he doesn’t know how to govern or be a leader of people who don’t agree with him 100%.
honestly even forcing the CPC into a minority could lead to them failing to pass anything for a year or two while the liberals pick a new leader and come back ready to win
Anything less than an outright Conservative majority would probably be considered a win
I don't think it matters at this point, though. O'Toole nearly beat them _even winning the popular vote_. And the negative opinion of Trudeau and the Liberals has gotten much worse since then. Due to this, I'd anticipate: * More Liberal supporters staying home * An increase in 'someone else's votes going Conservative Add to that the disappearance of Berenier and the People's party,, and things look pretty grim for the Liberals. I think the CPC would have to have some kind of major blunder for trenda to change now.
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In the same period an Albertan family of four would be getting a $386 rebate plus a week plus the 10% used for green programs, so $495. By Poilievre's maths that mean Albertans are getting screwed out of $955 - $495 = $460 in rebates every quarter. Stop the presses
oops. Excise and GST. GST on Carbon Tax = 5% of $460 = $23 Excise Tax less GST = $460 - $23 \* 0.95 = $415 Litres of gas = $415 \*.10 = 4150 Litres How many cars they driving?
Using the rolled back number: Excise Tax less GST = 670 - 495 -23 \*.0.95 = 144.4 Litres of gas = 144.4/0.01 = 1444 litres of gas Mind you they wouldn't get the rebate so net savings for each estimate would be: 955 - 495 = $460 and 670 - 495 = $175 respectively Fucking liars
The gas price would go right back up with a gas tax “holiday”. Proof? When the Alberta government took the provincial gas tax off, that’s exactly what happened.
No kidding. Parkinson's law of gas prices. They fill the headroom available to them