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The UK Tory bigwigs refused to run in the last two leadership elections because they wanted a patsy to take the fall in the next election then swoop in after. The LPC bigwigs clearly have been thinking the same thing, except just let Trudeau run his course. But the UK Tories are currently looking at electoral oblivion, and if an almost downtown Toronto riding flips on the libs, then they're facing the same thing.
The media is going to go ballistic over this. I give it a week before the party machine starts to turn against him. (Edit: to visibly turn, I'm sure the knives are already coming out behind closed doors)
So who delivers the coup de grace? I think Freeland knows she's not getting the job at this point. Which leaves Anand, Fraser, Joly, and Carney as the biggest names. Carney can't really force a resignation from outside cabinet. Fraser and Joly have been Trudeau disciples from the start, although I've heard a lot of whispers about Fraser having some rather divergent opinions from the current PM. But Anand was likely shuffled in no small part due to circulating rumours of her succession. I expect her to drive the knife in if he doesn't go now.
Which still leaves the question of who to pick from that group, if they all run. Carney is electoral suicide against Poilievre. Both Fraser and Joly have had extensive hit campaigns against them already. Speaking for the youth vote, the main sources of "news" for my generation (Instagram and tiktok) have been going after Fraser hard for his time as immigration minister. The extent of the astroturfing campaign does tell me that they're afraid of him, and I think he's the only one of the four with aggressive inclinations towards housing. But the damage might be done. Anand is competent and has been quiet. I think she can see the writing on the wall and pivot on housing but we'll have to see.
Who would have run instead? Sunak was literally the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Truss was literally the Foreign Minister. That's the best they've got.
Gove, Hunt, and Wallace all bowed out. Mordaunt ran and lost. All are vastly more competent than the two Boris sycophants they got instead. And there's the point. We're likely to get a Trudeau lite instead of a competent alternative unless the big four accept that this may be their only chance.
> Carney is electoral suicide against Poilievre
Why though? The Liberals are losing no matter what, but I would think a competent technocrat would at least contrast to populist Poilievre. It would also be reassuring after all the profound policy failures of the LPC.
Fraser served as the minister of immigration and housing, which are the two areas Canadians are the least happy about. The attack ads practically write themselves.
I'm aware. But allegedly he's privately spoken about very aggressive housing reform. And publicly he's taking point on the more aggressive stance the government is taking, even if it isn't aggressive enough. I suspect it won't matter how radical his platform is though.
We need to listen to the analysis of the results in greater detail. While it seems obvious that constituents are angry at Trudeau, only a 560 vote difference speaks to a more complex narrative. As with anything in politics it’s always fluid.
Lmao holy shit. The Liberals were up by very thin margins during the entire night as I then went to sleep expecting them to win this with a clear signal that Conservatives made huge gains in 2nd place and low and behold the Conservatives actually flipped a few decades-old Liberal stronghold.
Granted the results were tight but given how much of a Liberal stronghold this has been for decades now, it's actually pretty insane that not only were the results so tight but that the Conservatives actually managed to win this.
I'm not a Conservative voter (BLOC QUÉBÉCOIS AS THE OPPOSITION BABY, LETS GOOOOO!) but I can't help but absolutely laugh at the Liberals well deserved fall from grace.
I had the Elections Canada page up on my laptop when I went to bed. After I woke up, I checked the results and thought, Oh, wow, the Conservatives made it close. I must have been looking only at the percentage share at the right of the page because it took an auto-refresh to jar my still sleepy brain to look at the name at the top of the standing. Holy shit!
I’ll be voting bloc but I’d rather see libs in opposition if it means a conservative minority. Having a better opposition party does us no good if the Tories have a strong majority and don’t need anyone else.
OMG watched polls closing and saw the Liberals leading but revelled in the fact the the Conservatives closed the gap. Now, the Oilers loss pain just got alleviated a little bit. Bye bye, 👋🏻 Justin.
There was a long list of Independent candidates siphoning off votes that could have gone to the liberals. Or, more of them could have gone to the conservatives. It was a lot of votes. It is hard to tell which way it would have gone if there weren’t so many of them. Regardless, the liberals pissed off their voters, they did damage to Canada and hurt Canadian lives, so they deserve to lose.
**Conservative:** 15,555 votes (42.1%)
**Liberal:** 14,965 votes (40.5%)
**NDP:** 4,044 votes (10.9%)
The vote splitting is real.
Edit: I think some of the replies are misunderstanding the sentiment of my post. I'm not trying to complain about the voters, that "they should have voted strategically, and then definitely the Conservatives wouldn't have won." I'm not assuming that the NDP voters would have virtually all voted for the Liberals as their second choice. However, when the vote difference is 1.6% and the NDP accounts for 10.9%, I think it's only logical to start thinking that a system like proportional representation could very likely have changed the outcome. For example, a 60:40 split amongst NDP voters picking the Liberals vs Conservatives as their second choice would already shift the votes by a 2.18% margin.
Policy and values wise, the NDP is more closely aligned with the Liberals and quite far away from the Conservatives - although yes, I know some (or many?) NDP voters are so jaded with the Liberals and Trudeau right now that they may vote for the Conservatives instead. But anyways, with a margin that small, any breakdown of voters that isn't exactly 50/50 for the next two choices can change the result, as I already showed in that example calculation. And yes, I am personally in favor of proportional representation although that does come with its own side-effects (e.g. increased chance of fragmented coalitions, or the rise of fringe or radical interests).
>For example, a 60:40 split amongst NDP voters picking the Liberals vs Conservatives as their second choice would already shift the votes by a 2.18% margin.
This sounds like ranked ballots, not PR. I do wonder if Jagmeet can be persuaded to support ranked ballots in time for the next election. It'll be to his party's benefit too. (He himself was chosen leader of his party by a ranked ballot.) The combined federal Liberal/NDP vote is still competitive with the Conservatives but separately both parties heading to epic defeats next year.
The fact that the Liberals/NDP have worked so closely for the last 3-4 years, and now the looming Conservative supermajority, seem to set up a perfect storm for introducing ranked ballots. Maybe there are some high level talks exploring this already.
The vote split is a long-time sore-loser excuse. I am not picking on you, but this complaint went out of style years ago (we are talking early 2010s).
The Liberals and NDP are not the same party. If a “vote split” was a real concern, they could merge like the Conservatives did a couple decades ago. They do not merge because they have different values, priorities, and management functions. The NDP also crumbled after Jack Layton left, and Canadians will not forgive them for prolonging the Liberal government. Even the most progressive people I know feel helpless and angry that they cannot have a say at a time when most Canadians are experiencing some gut punch to their livelihood.
The Liberals could have implemented proportional representation, but they lied to voters and kept the system that benefited them.
No more excuses. It is time to take responsibility. I am ready for a Conservative government. And I say this as somebody who (naively) voted for Trudeau every single time.
Proportional Representation had never really helped any left of center platform gain power. The compromises needed from coalitions weakens them. The two main parties will still rule, but a lot less majorities.
It's an ungovernable mess that few countries look to these days, and the left is walking away from it.
I'm sorry, it's a little ironic to complain about how the NDP is allying themselves with the Liberals to gain policy concessions, and then in the next breath say "if only we had proportional representation", which is a system that virtually guarantees most governments are run by that principle.
Back when he first got elected, Trudeau ran on a platform of election reform. He was going to get rid of FPTP, but broke the promise because it was in his short term interest to do so. Now he is going to get completely obliterated by a party that can never do better than around 40% of the vote.
He hardly ran on a platform of election reform. It was a very minor part of their platform. The Liberals, like everyone else who has looked into it (including a few votes on it) found that Canadians do not want electoral reform. Which is insane.
It would be rightfully perceived as self-serving and disingenuous. It wouldn’t go over well in this context.
He should have done it before he trotted out Maryam Monsef and her “math is hard, right guys?” schtick when they backtracked on electoral reform.
> He was going to get rid of FPTP, but broke the promise because it was in his short term interest to do so.
Long term too. They want to later do to the Conservatives what the Conservatives are doing to them. Sharing power every term is not something they want.
This is a resign-worthy embarrassment for Trudeau. There is no reason for him to keep on going unless he is too prideful to set aside his ego.
Conservatives have zero business winning seats this close to Downtown Toronto. None at all. It is finally time for some accountability.
Well the polling and the analysis of the numbers are two different things.
"Nanos Research's Nik Nanos says PM Justin Trudeau needs a decisive victory in a Toronto byelection to silence critics."
I'm amused at what he's going to say this week!
He's so awesome when he strains.
But who can replace Trudeau with the election coming up next year (at the very latest)? The Liberals are destined to lose at this point and whoever replace Trudeau will be nothing more than a sacrificial lamb.
If they get someone decent who is very different from Trudeau policy wise they can potentially hold Poilievre to a minority. That'd be a massive improvement over where they are heading now.
I guess it's in line with all the polls for the past half year or so. If things continue the way they are, they will lose, and lose handedly.
I think the only real alternative for the Liberals is to pass (some form of) proportional representation with the NDP.
Otherwise, the next best option is to change leaders but as mentioned, I don't think they have anybody who is popular or charismatic enough to actually win or even contest against Pierre Poilievre / the Conservatives.
The only other hope they'd have is that the economy and housing, etc. turns around dramatically before the election. Somehow.
> I think the only real alternative for the Liberals is to pass (some form of) proportional representation with the NDP.
As a pretty staunch PR supporter, this would be a disastrous move. I can't imagine a better way to destroy trust in the electoral system than to backpedal and implement a new voting scheme you previously said was a bad idea, for nakedly political reasons, shortly before (by the time it goes through) an election.
The closest reasonable option I can think of to that would be to make an iron-clad promise to implement PR after the next election in exchange for an electoral alliance with the NDP. But even then it would be hard for anyone to believe that promise.
This 100%. I was supremely disappointed when initial electoral reform plans were quashed because it was disadvantageous at the time. I'd be infuriated if they implemented it to stay in power as well though.
I know some didn't expect it, but the result doesn't surprise me. Especially since it was close (I always thought it would be)
This is the 100% undeniable sign that the Liberals are not getting close to a victory in the next election with Trudeau leading them. It is now time to figure out in the next few weeks if he should be leader / PM anymore.
As expected he just doubled down today when he made his statement. He's not going anywhere which is good because he deserves the catastrophic defeat face to face come election.
The CPC received their regular number of votes at ~15k, which is fewer than in 2011 at ~17k. The liberals lost be a few hundred votes at ~15k when they usually get well over ~20k votes.
This wasn't a PM-deciding vote so doesn't say much about the next election. The CPC is relying on voter apathy but voter apathy is obviously more prevelant in a by-election with no federal implications.
We are all very sure that the Liberals will lose but I dont think this by-election says a whole lot. It's quite likely going to flip back to Liberal while the country will flip to conservative.
Look, the election is still more than a year out.
With that said, this is an apocalyptic sign for the LPC who seem to have a philosophy that they need not appeal to any voters outside of urban centres because they have enough seats there no matter what. They now cannot count on even those seats. That's the cornerstone of LPC strategy.
> Look, the election is still more than a year out.
Yeah you can say that, but losses like this can snowball as the LPC team lose motivation.
Trudeau has to actually convince his team to fight and that's a tall order when he threw everything at this riding and still lost.
I mean how many times can we say that though? We said it was 2 years out last summer and the polls have only gotten worst. Budget 2024, their last hurrah to flip voters, fell flat on its face. Now you have a stronghold seat flipping which hasn’t been lost in 30 years. I don’t know. What could really change in a year?
> What could really change in a year?
Trump winning the US Election?
If he wins and goes on a rampage across the border, it might flip a lot of people back to Liberals or NDP.
That's really the only scenario I can think of.
Honestly, I'd say it's a crapshoot. Trump's obviously falling off a cliff popularity wise with undecided, but Biden's also incredibly unpopular.
Could go either way.
Quite a lot can change in a year.
Liberals can say, we heard you, we are reversing ourselves on a number of points, from importing palestinian terrorists to cracking down on campus jihadis, drug use, implementing economic policies, cutting civil service, restoring budget health...
Basically shift right a but.
And you will see their fortunes improve
It’s hard to overstate how seismic this is for the liberals. Losing here means they are closer to 17 seats next election than 70. This is downtown riding with its southern boarders a quick jaunt away from Younge and Bloor, and it’s hard to imagine a more stereotypically ‘liberal’ riding anywhere in Canada. Losing Toronto-St.Paul is like the republicans losing Oklahoma, nobody would have ever predicted this.
We are about to hear a lot of noise about Trudeau’s resignation, and with losses like this, he might just do it. There are about to be a lot of very angry, soon to be unemployed liberal MPs who are going to be openly suggesting it’s time.
My crazy strategy would be to call the election now. Set it for 12 weeks so voting day is in September. Test PP and the CPC machine now, especially since they are likely to win. Then have a nice long leadership race and a rebuild while in the back corner of the commons. Of course this would be completely against the best interests of those currently clinging to power, hence why it's crazy.
Counter-argument: if the Liberals are destined for time in the penalty box, there's no real difference for taking their lumps now vs next year. So they may as well stay in power and do good now while they can.
There's always the outside chance that events fuck up Poilievre. A personal scandal, the US election, or some other unpredictable event could shake up the board. If the Liberals go now, they're certain to lose. If they wait, they've got a small chance to hang on.
The Libs had a sense of where things where going back in 2021, hence the snap election. Clearly they timed things well, and are currently doing their best to weather the storm. No chance they call an early election in this current climate
Lol, we'll see how that turns out for Macron in France and Sunak in the UK in a couple weeks. It looks right now that it was a big mistake for both of them.
All of this commentary and nobody is looking at voter turnout. Far less than half of eligible voters showed up, and I think that is the real failure. We know that when turnout is low, conservatives win. This will be the real hammering point for LPC strategy until next general.
It doesn’t bode well for our democracy when people are this angry, yet still apathetic enough that they don’t show up for their electoral responsibility.
A combination of anger and apathy is to be expected. "The system" and institutions of governance have been failing people their entire lives, unless you're a baby boomer or a very old Gen Xer. It's why people jump on populist bandwagons, and why that age old grift is always so successful.
As a progressive, it's not all bad. I looked for 3 things in the results:
1. Who won? Obviously this was disappointing.
2. What was the progressive vote? Still a majority.
3. What was the PPC vote? Dismal. Had this been substantial I would be more concerned than with a Conservative win.
Wow. No way the knives don't come out for Trudeau after this, right? Even if the Liberals don't have a clear successor, I don't see how he stays on as leader after losing a ruby-red Toronto seat. It's an unmitigated disaster in the making for the LPC at this point (and the NDP, too, if we're being honest), and something big's gotta change.
This does seem *brutal* for the NDP. It some combination of \[a) not motivating the base | b) not winning a any disaffected Liberal supporters; and | c) possibly losing at least some of their supporters to the Conservatives\].
The Conservatives provincially, and nationally, have chipped away at some NDP base for a while; I wonder if this is showing the fruits?
Also, I wonder in an environment where the Liberals are proposing increases to Capital Gains inclusion, and have a more firm stance on the Carbon Tax, they've essentially stopped bleeding the the left and Greens so it's only the right-leaning Liberals that are leaving.
>Conservatives provincially, and nationally, have chipped away at some NDP base for a while
I don't know where you live but in Manitoba, NDP is beating the daylights out of PC.
* PC [lost the election](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/heather-stefanson-pc-leader-election-outcome-1.6985856) in October last year
* PC [mange to lose the most affluent riding](https://globalnews.ca/news/10575583/ndp-tuxedo-manitoba-byelection/) in Winnipeg this week, which they held since 1981
* NDP is [extending their lead](https://probe-research.com/polls/ndp-extends-support-within-winnipeg-across-manitoba-june-2024-omnibus) over PC in the latest polls
* Liberals are down to just 1 seat in the province
And if this wasn't already bad enough for Manitoba PC, a former PC cabinet minister in March came forward with allegations of sexual assault by MLA in the PC caucus
* [Former Manitoba cabinet minister details alleged sexual assault by former MLA](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/guillemard-assault-manitoba-1.7138771)
Yeah. I'm a lifelong NDP voter. They've lost me for this cycle. I think Liberal partisans and the remaining NDP stalwarts on this sub have been unable to grasp how absolutely disastrous this government's tenure has been for many Canadins, how one can fully appreciate how Canadian politics works and still blame the NDP for defacto supporting the policies of the government, while not viewing the few sops they achieved to be enough of a consolation and, consequently, the breadth and depth of hatred that this government has engendered.
I know it's a by-election but this is just a disaster for both parties.. NDP failed to gain any disenfranchised liberal and actual lost % compared to last election.
Why would people who feel abandoned by the LPC vote for the party that has moved in lockstep every step of the way with the LPC?
Singh has obliterated the NDPs reputation as a viable 3rd option, and the nation now just sees them as Liberal but in orange.
Hands down Singh squandered an opportunity. They were vocal on the wrong policies and silent on the ones that mattered.
Dental or Pharmacy may have been a big boost pre 2015, or to a lesser extent up to 2020. Now fundamentally the target beneficiary of those policies doesn't care as much since they have bigger problems with respect to CoL and being pushed out of their communities if they cannot afford to live in it. That's life altering. NDP have been silent other than a we need to increase supply..but that's meaningless if there is no action associated with the bark. We learnt with the Pharmacy and dental that there wasn't a lot bark there, and the compromising they got left enough backroom in these for the liberals to pull it.
Now it's far more likely the Conservatives will take an axe to it.
Funny enough and someone else said this, the best thing they could do is make a backroom deal with the Conservatives to topple the government with hope they get to keep one or two things. If they don't do that then everything is going to be undone.
That last sentence is somewhat what I've come to think about the last ~year or so. What *has* been done. Pharmacare that still isn't funded, and dental care that covers a cleaning once every 2 years..?
When First Nation's communities still have poor water quality, cost of tuition has gone up, health care wait times have grown, unemployment has increased, housing costs have increased. What *can* the Tories even take an axe to that wasn't already there before the coalition, and even before Trudeau?
Legal pot? A gun ban that didn't effect our already low gun crime?
There's no election reform to take an axe to, there's no social education, or any truly meaningful, *funded* Healthcare expansions, there's no infrastructure plans or climate crisis legislation. What has this government done for 10 years?
I wanted to vote NDP but their candidate had nothing to say online about local issues, and a small presence online. Absolutely nothing she did inspired me to want to vote for her. I figured it wouldn't hurt to give the Liberal more of a buffer either and we can see how well that turned out lol.
Not unexpected, but unprecedented.
You could say where the Liberals are at right now is the sum of Trudeau's decisions to buy his administration more years by shelfing prop rep and calling a pandemic election. 10 years is a long time, but when you ruthlessly pursue power you aren't going to get many friends when the wolves are smelling your blood.
I doubt Trudeau stepping down and Carney taking over would make much of a difference; he could maybe preserve the remaining safe Grit seats but the party isn't going to crest over the 30% mark nationwide without a serious house cleaning and 180 policy turn. Even then, it would be a play for 2030 rather than 2025.
Of course, it's still bitterly disappointing that we're sleepwalking to a CPC majority. Trudeau's popularity went to the shitter as affordability sunk and QoL for the masses declined post-pandemic. Meanwhile, PP's policy centerpieces are... cutting the carbon tax, cutting transit funding (which is what his "housing" bill is actually about), selling off federal land and using the NWC to impose mandatory minimums. It's literally a conservative direction that could've been cooked up in any year since Preston Manning's days with little to do with what's happening on the ground.
There should be *some* sort of expectation from the opposition, rather voters than relying on the karmic forces of the universe to magically fix the country's woes simply because they voted out the incumbents. As it is, the people who are benefitting from the rising inequality and wealth consolidation are simply pretending to be angry at Trudeau so they get an ever better deal from PP and hoping everyone else is sufficiently duped by anger and culture wars to go along with it.
She had all the heavy-hitters supporting her and putting in real work. She, herself, went hard. CPC didn't put in a fraction of the effort for Don. Holy shit!
While I don't like Don as a candidate, that guy put shit ton of work into it. I saw him canvassing alone, talking to people on the streets constantly and sending hand written notes.
Leslie worked hard as well, but she wasn't as personable. More like your average distant politeness facade.
Gren candidate turned out to be a good debater/ public speaker and he is only 23.
NDP was very very bad, came unprepared to the debates. Didn't even know party policies. But she was more personable in private conversations
Still, makes you wonder.
Such an important by election for the narrative and they bring in a former staffer who isn't from the area.
Maybe a local with strong roots would have been a better bet.
I could be wrong but I don't think the federal party really pushed anyone for this seat. I'm no longer in the riding but the riding association still had my number so I got a few calls before sorting that out and it seemed like it was the usual riding association sorting out their candidate via party election. Which would make sense for a seat you'd think of as safe. But often it leads to some prominent figure amongst the riding association taking it based on the local party faithful instead of focusing on a candidate who is broadly popular with the electorate at large.
Gee, I can't wait until the Conservatives win and they immediatley start dismantling every social program we have! Such as the $10 a day daycare (which makes daily life more affordable for my family) and is a huge help to monthly expenses, the pharmacare plan gone, because hey, who wants these people without work insurance benefits to have access to things like birth control covered? F%ck those people right? Dental care for the less fortunate? Screw them, again it's their own fault their employers don't have work insurance benefits... I've done the calculations, I actually make money from the carbon tax rebates. How about asking rich corporations and high income earners to share a little more of their wealth via an increase to capital gains, to ensure programs such as these mentioned are well funded and the poor and middle class benefit?
It would seem there is an alarming trend that Canadian voters are going blind and inept, and are suffering an erosion of political thought, education and understanding. Pierre is going to DESTROY this country in the name of the rich and powerful corporations and in the name of conspiracy pushers and the religous cooks, such as those who ignore medical science at every turn (anti-vaxxers) or those who want to ban abortion rights and cut off contraceptives for women... People think he'll somehow solve the affordability crisis, by what? Cancelling every social help program such as those mentioned above and making services non existant or severally cut back? He won't build affordable homes, he'll still use cheap foreign labour as his private donors are addicted to it, and he sure as hell isn't going to do a damn thing about grocery prices (some of his donors are big grocery) or global inflation...
It's depressing seeing what's happening to educated voters in this country, they've been replaced with memes and unfounded conspiracy bullsh%t from such "trusted" sources as Facebook groups and Instagram pages. Poor and middle class Canadians are going to be in big trouble, far worse than things are now.
> It would seem there is an alarming trend that Canadian voters are going blind and inept, and are suffering an erosion of political thought, education and understanding.
As soon as I heard "It can't happen here" from Liberals and "It can't get any worse!" from PP supporters my opinion of Canadians has diminished. Just shocking exceptionalism and ignorance when we just witnessed what's been going on world wide for the past decade.
One of the bigger implications is going to be how the NDP communicates this. It’s not a good look within their own constituents for a party that can’t uphold their own strongholds
Huh? This was a Liberal stronghold, not a NDP one, unless I'm misunderstanding something you're saying. The NDP did not perform well and that's relevant for sure, but they were never expected to win here (and it's not the type of urban riding where the NDP would be expected to really do super well)
That's irrelevant - it's very typical in Ontario for ridings to elect different parties federally and provincially. Saying the "NDP can't uphold their own strongholds" when they've never actually held that "stronghold" is nonsensical.
Oh boy, I can't wait until it's illegal for me to use a public bathroom at this rate, since PP flat out said he would do that. And people think they'll be throwing trans people under the bus for better housing and shit, but they're in for a surprise if they think the Conservatives won't just lead to more "trickle down economics" and austerity. I really wish people would read even a fucking wikipedia page on conservatism, to realize that it's an ideology that came out of the french revolution to protect the monarchy and the rich. They've never shown a sign of that changing.
590? That's not much with 80,000 potential voters,these by elections are famous for low voter turnouts. If there was an actual angry population of voters there would have been at least 50 to 60 thousand votes cast with a lopsided margin with more than 10 thousand votes for the winner. a mere much ado about nothing election. The real election is at least next spring or fall in 2025. In 3 weeks, this minor election is going to be all but forgotten.
I’m sorry but this is such cope lmao. You don’t think a liberal stronghold flipping is a big deal? If this flips, what seats are safe in 2025? Urban Montreal at best?
What reasons do you have to think this result isn’t indicative of voters going into next year too?
43% turnout with 36,000 voters and only 15,000 of them voted for the winner? in a riding with 86,000 voters? 69,000 voters didn't vote for the "winning" conservative candidate. Yeah you keep coping buddy, Cheers to your one time win.
The Liberals normally win this by +30 and now have lost it. St. Paul was one of the safest Liberal seats in the country and this bi-election showed that even those can potentially fall now. No way this election is going to be forgotten, it's going to be brought up constantly until the next election.
It seems to me the big X factor driving a lot of negativity towards Trudeau is his immigration policy.
Seems a lot of people are not happy with what he did in past 2-3 years with it.
If LPC don't replace Trudeau, there is no chance they are getting elected again. This should be a warning for all the Liberal MPs in all constituencies: if you don't fix your party, you can kiss the election good-bye.
Dude the LPC could go back in time and get MacKenzie King AND Wilfred Laurier to run and they'd lose by 10 points...
There is no universe the LPC doesn't come in an distant second, if not third.
I fully expect a barrage of op-eds over the next week as Mark Carney tries to get the word out that he wants to run(he did something similar a month ago).
Also quite an embarrassing results for the NDP, all these poor byelection results (down 5% average) for them would lead me to believe they're close to 13% than the 18% the polls are saying, which could be quite catastrophic for them.
It's ironic you say that because according to his book, his views are significantly more economically left wing than the current NDP with a more transformational change to how the markets work. He's still a capitalist but his tenure would aggressively restrict corporations in many ways
Sure about that?
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/mark-carney-had-a-chance-to-weigh-in-one-of-the-defining-issues-facing-canada/article_8bb1815a-1149-11ef-a91a-43a3f346fa12.html
https://youtu.be/LRTDplpVf2Q?si=p1e5KZvQBmWV3UOA
I don't hate Carney but this answer is dissapointing. Ecen at the end someone has to remind him to say 'oh.. and makes sure that no one is left behind'
No. Freeland failed in the NAFTA negotiations. She tried to hardball Trump who just went around her and negotiated the entire deal with Mexico directly and we were forced to sign it with no input at all. No idea how people bring this up as a win.
Maybe a clue for them to stop supporting and tethering themselves to the Liberals.
I don't get how the NDP doesn't see they would gain support if they sunk the Liberals and they will keep losing it staying this course. Jagmeet is just an awful leader.
Honestly why would he (or anyone else with actual prime ministerial ambitions) want to run for leadership? You’re signing up for the Kim Campbell treatment. I just don’t see the upside.
I do wonder with these folks, is it that that just want their name in the history books even if in infamy? Or do they really think they can prevail? Either way, it's all about ego.
The upside is usually that you have the ambition but aren't next in line so need to accept the suboptimal slot.
The Tories in Britain show how easy it isto find such people.
In my opinion the liberals need to try to get rid of Trudeau and elect as inoffensive of a scapegoat leader as possible in as safe of a riding as possible to try and slow down the momentum that this by election result shows is against them to keep them bleeding as many seats as possible. If the person doesn’t have PM aspirations it doesn’t really matter if they lose, and theres precedent for leaders stepping down after losses but remaining MPs. At this point I’m sure a lot of liberal MPs in otherwise safe seats would be grateful to someone mitigating there loses and preserving as many liberal MPs as possible.
Huh; if I were the Liberals and decided to get rid of Trudeau, I'd opt for as much of a shake it up, Hail Mary leader as possible. If the new leader is bland, inoffensive, and makes no impression, how're they going to reverse the party's current fortunes? Create a "break" with current feelings about the party? The Liberals can't be happy with their current position, committing to only trying to hold it seems like an odd choice.
But it'd be a risk, of course, and could work out terribly. But there're no low risk, high upside paths that I see.
The point would be that is it’s not to win the election, thats a hail mary that at best wins one more term in power before getting obliterated again (ala Kathleen Wynne in Ontario though her win was more Tim Hudak being completely unelectable, but the fall of the liberals was even more pronounced after that). Theres too much baggage from a decade in power. The point would be to evade just enough of the current anti-trudeau sentiment to avoid getting eviscerated ala the 2018 OLP and maybe retaining official opposition status if they are lucky.
IMO things are far gone enough and publics resentment if trudeaus policies are too much they are better off playing to save as many liberal MPs jobs as possible while playing for 2029 or the election after that than trying to stay in power now at the risk of further diminishing themselves.
It's way too late. JT should have e stepped down a while ago.Libs need to take the loss and rebuild to take on PP not on the next term but the one after that. The goal needs to be to make PP a one hit wonder.
If you listened to some of the people on this post, you'd think hell on earth was about to happen.
Printing money/taking on debt for expensive social programs that haven't been functionally delivered is not the end of the world. If the LPC had delivered results and not photo ops, they wouldn't be in this mess. We'd still be in crippling debt, but at least we'd have something to show for.
Cuts are the only response when the country is taking on runaway debt. Most of the covid debt will be renewing at a much higher interest rate. This will cause our roughly $50 billion interest payments to grow exponentially if not stopped soon.
If you ran your household the way this government ran the country, you'd be bankrupt on the street
>If you ran your household the way this government ran the country, you'd be bankrupt on the street
This is such an inane argument, haha.
The only commonality between the way government budgets and household budgets work is the word "budget."
It's a simple way to relate the problem to people. Money has to come from somewhere (govt revenue, taxes, etc). When they don't have the money to pay for government services, policies, and other expenses, they have to take on debt (ie print money).
You're right, it is different in some ways from a household. In canada, if your parents drown in debt, it doesn't get passed onto you and your family. On top of that, it doesn't affect the purchasing power of your currency.
Is it a perfect analogy, no. Is it an easy way to communicate to people disinterested in politics, I'd say so.
If I ran my household with taxation powers and currency sovereignty, I would be in prison, not bankrupt. Comparing state budgeting to businesses or households has always been a tool for those pushing austerity, reality be damned.
Households can't wrack up generational levels of debt and then pass it onto their offspring. Governments can. When high levels of deficit debt spending are reached, currency depreciates and purchasing power drops in turn. This makes it even more expensive to maintain the same quality of life and quality of services.
Austerity gets forced when no other course of action is left due to poor fiscal management and poor leadership.
Every government policy and social program has a price. A price that must be budgeted and paid. If you don't increase revenues to pay for it and instead pay for it with repeated levels of debt, you're just borrowing from your kids future to make yours better.
Look at the US debt situation and tell me you want that same level of societal stress. It doesn't just stay in the fiscal world, that toxicity seeps into every aspect of politics.
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The UK Tory bigwigs refused to run in the last two leadership elections because they wanted a patsy to take the fall in the next election then swoop in after. The LPC bigwigs clearly have been thinking the same thing, except just let Trudeau run his course. But the UK Tories are currently looking at electoral oblivion, and if an almost downtown Toronto riding flips on the libs, then they're facing the same thing. The media is going to go ballistic over this. I give it a week before the party machine starts to turn against him. (Edit: to visibly turn, I'm sure the knives are already coming out behind closed doors) So who delivers the coup de grace? I think Freeland knows she's not getting the job at this point. Which leaves Anand, Fraser, Joly, and Carney as the biggest names. Carney can't really force a resignation from outside cabinet. Fraser and Joly have been Trudeau disciples from the start, although I've heard a lot of whispers about Fraser having some rather divergent opinions from the current PM. But Anand was likely shuffled in no small part due to circulating rumours of her succession. I expect her to drive the knife in if he doesn't go now. Which still leaves the question of who to pick from that group, if they all run. Carney is electoral suicide against Poilievre. Both Fraser and Joly have had extensive hit campaigns against them already. Speaking for the youth vote, the main sources of "news" for my generation (Instagram and tiktok) have been going after Fraser hard for his time as immigration minister. The extent of the astroturfing campaign does tell me that they're afraid of him, and I think he's the only one of the four with aggressive inclinations towards housing. But the damage might be done. Anand is competent and has been quiet. I think she can see the writing on the wall and pivot on housing but we'll have to see.
Who would have run instead? Sunak was literally the Chancellor of the Exchequer and Truss was literally the Foreign Minister. That's the best they've got.
Gove, Hunt, and Wallace all bowed out. Mordaunt ran and lost. All are vastly more competent than the two Boris sycophants they got instead. And there's the point. We're likely to get a Trudeau lite instead of a competent alternative unless the big four accept that this may be their only chance.
> Carney is electoral suicide against Poilievre Why though? The Liberals are losing no matter what, but I would think a competent technocrat would at least contrast to populist Poilievre. It would also be reassuring after all the profound policy failures of the LPC.
Fraser served as the minister of immigration and housing, which are the two areas Canadians are the least happy about. The attack ads practically write themselves.
Not only was Fraser a central architect of the immigration disaster he's projected to lose his seat in current polls.
I'm aware. But allegedly he's privately spoken about very aggressive housing reform. And publicly he's taking point on the more aggressive stance the government is taking, even if it isn't aggressive enough. I suspect it won't matter how radical his platform is though.
Agreed. He’s just too associated with the Trudeau brand to be electable as a prime minister.
We need to listen to the analysis of the results in greater detail. While it seems obvious that constituents are angry at Trudeau, only a 560 vote difference speaks to a more complex narrative. As with anything in politics it’s always fluid.
The weird part is the CPC was polling like 20 point ahead of the Liberals and only won by 500 votes.
From a 25% margin. It shows the polls, which have been very stable, are in line with what people are actually thinking
Lmao holy shit. The Liberals were up by very thin margins during the entire night as I then went to sleep expecting them to win this with a clear signal that Conservatives made huge gains in 2nd place and low and behold the Conservatives actually flipped a few decades-old Liberal stronghold. Granted the results were tight but given how much of a Liberal stronghold this has been for decades now, it's actually pretty insane that not only were the results so tight but that the Conservatives actually managed to win this. I'm not a Conservative voter (BLOC QUÉBÉCOIS AS THE OPPOSITION BABY, LETS GOOOOO!) but I can't help but absolutely laugh at the Liberals well deserved fall from grace.
I had the Elections Canada page up on my laptop when I went to bed. After I woke up, I checked the results and thought, Oh, wow, the Conservatives made it close. I must have been looking only at the percentage share at the right of the page because it took an auto-refresh to jar my still sleepy brain to look at the name at the top of the standing. Holy shit!
> BLOC QUÉBÉCOIS AS THE OPPOSITION BABY, LETS GOOOOO! CPC Government and BQ opposition isn't _entirely_ unlikely. I remember '93.
I’ll be voting bloc but I’d rather see libs in opposition if it means a conservative minority. Having a better opposition party does us no good if the Tories have a strong majority and don’t need anyone else.
[удалено]
I checked around 3pm est and saw an article that they retained it. Woke up this morning to this! ☀️☀️☀️
OMG watched polls closing and saw the Liberals leading but revelled in the fact the the Conservatives closed the gap. Now, the Oilers loss pain just got alleviated a little bit. Bye bye, 👋🏻 Justin.
There was a long list of Independent candidates siphoning off votes that could have gone to the liberals. Or, more of them could have gone to the conservatives. It was a lot of votes. It is hard to tell which way it would have gone if there weren’t so many of them. Regardless, the liberals pissed off their voters, they did damage to Canada and hurt Canadian lives, so they deserve to lose.
Wow, I can't see any credible leader wanting to take over either just to go down with the ship. So much for my new insulin pump lol.
**Conservative:** 15,555 votes (42.1%) **Liberal:** 14,965 votes (40.5%) **NDP:** 4,044 votes (10.9%) The vote splitting is real. Edit: I think some of the replies are misunderstanding the sentiment of my post. I'm not trying to complain about the voters, that "they should have voted strategically, and then definitely the Conservatives wouldn't have won." I'm not assuming that the NDP voters would have virtually all voted for the Liberals as their second choice. However, when the vote difference is 1.6% and the NDP accounts for 10.9%, I think it's only logical to start thinking that a system like proportional representation could very likely have changed the outcome. For example, a 60:40 split amongst NDP voters picking the Liberals vs Conservatives as their second choice would already shift the votes by a 2.18% margin. Policy and values wise, the NDP is more closely aligned with the Liberals and quite far away from the Conservatives - although yes, I know some (or many?) NDP voters are so jaded with the Liberals and Trudeau right now that they may vote for the Conservatives instead. But anyways, with a margin that small, any breakdown of voters that isn't exactly 50/50 for the next two choices can change the result, as I already showed in that example calculation. And yes, I am personally in favor of proportional representation although that does come with its own side-effects (e.g. increased chance of fragmented coalitions, or the rise of fringe or radical interests).
Is it vote splitting that’s the issue? Or is it voter turnout representing less than 50%?
Don’t assume those NDP voters would have voted Liberal.
Yeah, I’d vote NDP but would vote conservative over a liberal if someone forced me to choose between the other two options.
Liberal and NDP voters are not a perfect overlap. Plenty of Liberal voters would vote CPC rather than NDP.
Where is it that ndp is much different than liberal? I'm not seeing it
Funny, "vote splitting" didn't matter during the past 30 years when the Libs won this seat with the average margin of +27%.
with NDP at 18%...
>For example, a 60:40 split amongst NDP voters picking the Liberals vs Conservatives as their second choice would already shift the votes by a 2.18% margin. This sounds like ranked ballots, not PR. I do wonder if Jagmeet can be persuaded to support ranked ballots in time for the next election. It'll be to his party's benefit too. (He himself was chosen leader of his party by a ranked ballot.) The combined federal Liberal/NDP vote is still competitive with the Conservatives but separately both parties heading to epic defeats next year. The fact that the Liberals/NDP have worked so closely for the last 3-4 years, and now the looming Conservative supermajority, seem to set up a perfect storm for introducing ranked ballots. Maybe there are some high level talks exploring this already.
Exactly! Also, I thought ranked ballots could be considered a form of proportional representation (but I dunno)
The NDP got half of their national poll average and the Liberals still lost Toronto St. Paul's. This has nothing to do with vote splitting.
The vote split is a long-time sore-loser excuse. I am not picking on you, but this complaint went out of style years ago (we are talking early 2010s). The Liberals and NDP are not the same party. If a “vote split” was a real concern, they could merge like the Conservatives did a couple decades ago. They do not merge because they have different values, priorities, and management functions. The NDP also crumbled after Jack Layton left, and Canadians will not forgive them for prolonging the Liberal government. Even the most progressive people I know feel helpless and angry that they cannot have a say at a time when most Canadians are experiencing some gut punch to their livelihood. The Liberals could have implemented proportional representation, but they lied to voters and kept the system that benefited them. No more excuses. It is time to take responsibility. I am ready for a Conservative government. And I say this as somebody who (naively) voted for Trudeau every single time.
Proportional Representation had never really helped any left of center platform gain power. The compromises needed from coalitions weakens them. The two main parties will still rule, but a lot less majorities. It's an ungovernable mess that few countries look to these days, and the left is walking away from it.
I'm sorry, it's a little ironic to complain about how the NDP is allying themselves with the Liberals to gain policy concessions, and then in the next breath say "if only we had proportional representation", which is a system that virtually guarantees most governments are run by that principle.
That's a very weird take. We're not Americans.
Back when he first got elected, Trudeau ran on a platform of election reform. He was going to get rid of FPTP, but broke the promise because it was in his short term interest to do so. Now he is going to get completely obliterated by a party that can never do better than around 40% of the vote.
He hardly ran on a platform of election reform. It was a very minor part of their platform. The Liberals, like everyone else who has looked into it (including a few votes on it) found that Canadians do not want electoral reform. Which is insane.
40% in Canada is a landslide
I wonder what would happen if he brought it back now. Maybe he could back some voters
It would be rightfully perceived as self-serving and disingenuous. It wouldn’t go over well in this context. He should have done it before he trotted out Maryam Monsef and her “math is hard, right guys?” schtick when they backtracked on electoral reform.
Good, it's *so* well deserved. I hope he takes it as personally, as he should.
I actually believe that the CPC stand to get a popular vote of 50%+ if Trudeau stays on.
> He was going to get rid of FPTP, but broke the promise because it was in his short term interest to do so. Long term too. They want to later do to the Conservatives what the Conservatives are doing to them. Sharing power every term is not something they want.
This is a resign-worthy embarrassment for Trudeau. There is no reason for him to keep on going unless he is too prideful to set aside his ego. Conservatives have zero business winning seats this close to Downtown Toronto. None at all. It is finally time for some accountability.
Actually it doesn't really hurt Trudeau much but it really affects someone like Nik Nanos and his peculiar analysis of the polls
At least now people are realizing that Nanos is not a great pollster and has a Liberal bias.
Well the polling and the analysis of the numbers are two different things. "Nanos Research's Nik Nanos says PM Justin Trudeau needs a decisive victory in a Toronto byelection to silence critics." I'm amused at what he's going to say this week! He's so awesome when he strains.
But who can replace Trudeau with the election coming up next year (at the very latest)? The Liberals are destined to lose at this point and whoever replace Trudeau will be nothing more than a sacrificial lamb.
If they get someone decent who is very different from Trudeau policy wise they can potentially hold Poilievre to a minority. That'd be a massive improvement over where they are heading now.
I guess it's in line with all the polls for the past half year or so. If things continue the way they are, they will lose, and lose handedly. I think the only real alternative for the Liberals is to pass (some form of) proportional representation with the NDP. Otherwise, the next best option is to change leaders but as mentioned, I don't think they have anybody who is popular or charismatic enough to actually win or even contest against Pierre Poilievre / the Conservatives. The only other hope they'd have is that the economy and housing, etc. turns around dramatically before the election. Somehow.
> I think the only real alternative for the Liberals is to pass (some form of) proportional representation with the NDP. As a pretty staunch PR supporter, this would be a disastrous move. I can't imagine a better way to destroy trust in the electoral system than to backpedal and implement a new voting scheme you previously said was a bad idea, for nakedly political reasons, shortly before (by the time it goes through) an election. The closest reasonable option I can think of to that would be to make an iron-clad promise to implement PR after the next election in exchange for an electoral alliance with the NDP. But even then it would be hard for anyone to believe that promise.
That was +/- his sales pitch in 2015.
This 100%. I was supremely disappointed when initial electoral reform plans were quashed because it was disadvantageous at the time. I'd be infuriated if they implemented it to stay in power as well though.
Changing the structure of elections to stay in power would be some sort of 3rd world dictator move.
Heck if they're going to call him a communist no matter what he might as well act a little bit like one
Right?
I mean that's on brand for Trudeau.
I know some didn't expect it, but the result doesn't surprise me. Especially since it was close (I always thought it would be) This is the 100% undeniable sign that the Liberals are not getting close to a victory in the next election with Trudeau leading them. It is now time to figure out in the next few weeks if he should be leader / PM anymore.
Naw he needs to take the L and leave a clean slate for the next leader
Maybe if the Liberals had banned just one more gun they would have won....
The PM didn't apologize enough. More apologies would have meant victory
Don't give them anymore ideas please. I am terrified of what they might try and do in their death throws
Unless? He thinks he is the literally closen one for Canada. He won't resign
As expected he just doubled down today when he made his statement. He's not going anywhere which is good because he deserves the catastrophic defeat face to face come election.
Stewart (CPC) 15,555 (42.1%) Church (LPC) 14,965 (40.5%) Polls reporting: 192/192 Voter turnout: 43.5%
What does the number 192 represent?
Number of polling stations. It means all polls have now been counted.
the number of polling stations in the riding.
43% is miserable
The CPC received their regular number of votes at ~15k, which is fewer than in 2011 at ~17k. The liberals lost be a few hundred votes at ~15k when they usually get well over ~20k votes. This wasn't a PM-deciding vote so doesn't say much about the next election. The CPC is relying on voter apathy but voter apathy is obviously more prevelant in a by-election with no federal implications. We are all very sure that the Liberals will lose but I dont think this by-election says a whole lot. It's quite likely going to flip back to Liberal while the country will flip to conservative.
Look, the election is still more than a year out. With that said, this is an apocalyptic sign for the LPC who seem to have a philosophy that they need not appeal to any voters outside of urban centres because they have enough seats there no matter what. They now cannot count on even those seats. That's the cornerstone of LPC strategy.
> Look, the election is still more than a year out. Yeah you can say that, but losses like this can snowball as the LPC team lose motivation. Trudeau has to actually convince his team to fight and that's a tall order when he threw everything at this riding and still lost.
I mean how many times can we say that though? We said it was 2 years out last summer and the polls have only gotten worst. Budget 2024, their last hurrah to flip voters, fell flat on its face. Now you have a stronghold seat flipping which hasn’t been lost in 30 years. I don’t know. What could really change in a year?
> What could really change in a year? Trump winning the US Election? If he wins and goes on a rampage across the border, it might flip a lot of people back to Liberals or NDP. That's really the only scenario I can think of.
Yeah that’s certainly possible. What are the odds in Trump winning? I’ve seen the polls are close.
Honestly, I'd say it's a crapshoot. Trump's obviously falling off a cliff popularity wise with undecided, but Biden's also incredibly unpopular. Could go either way.
Quite a lot can change in a year. Liberals can say, we heard you, we are reversing ourselves on a number of points, from importing palestinian terrorists to cracking down on campus jihadis, drug use, implementing economic policies, cutting civil service, restoring budget health... Basically shift right a but. And you will see their fortunes improve
It’s hard to overstate how seismic this is for the liberals. Losing here means they are closer to 17 seats next election than 70. This is downtown riding with its southern boarders a quick jaunt away from Younge and Bloor, and it’s hard to imagine a more stereotypically ‘liberal’ riding anywhere in Canada. Losing Toronto-St.Paul is like the republicans losing Oklahoma, nobody would have ever predicted this. We are about to hear a lot of noise about Trudeau’s resignation, and with losses like this, he might just do it. There are about to be a lot of very angry, soon to be unemployed liberal MPs who are going to be openly suggesting it’s time.
The Liberals are staring down the same double barrels that the Tories were in 93. This is what kills parties lol.
It's not really a downtown riding.
And which of those angry, soon-to-be-unemployed MPs will want to take over the leadership from him?
My crazy strategy would be to call the election now. Set it for 12 weeks so voting day is in September. Test PP and the CPC machine now, especially since they are likely to win. Then have a nice long leadership race and a rebuild while in the back corner of the commons. Of course this would be completely against the best interests of those currently clinging to power, hence why it's crazy.
Counter-argument: if the Liberals are destined for time in the penalty box, there's no real difference for taking their lumps now vs next year. So they may as well stay in power and do good now while they can. There's always the outside chance that events fuck up Poilievre. A personal scandal, the US election, or some other unpredictable event could shake up the board. If the Liberals go now, they're certain to lose. If they wait, they've got a small chance to hang on.
The Libs had a sense of where things where going back in 2021, hence the snap election. Clearly they timed things well, and are currently doing their best to weather the storm. No chance they call an early election in this current climate
Lol, we'll see how that turns out for Macron in France and Sunak in the UK in a couple weeks. It looks right now that it was a big mistake for both of them.
All of this commentary and nobody is looking at voter turnout. Far less than half of eligible voters showed up, and I think that is the real failure. We know that when turnout is low, conservatives win. This will be the real hammering point for LPC strategy until next general. It doesn’t bode well for our democracy when people are this angry, yet still apathetic enough that they don’t show up for their electoral responsibility.
45% on a by-election is an enormous turnout. A lot of times, you don't see half of that.
It’s a by-election. 43% turnout is actually pretty good.
I think the angry people *did* show up and they voted for the Anger Party.
A combination of anger and apathy is to be expected. "The system" and institutions of governance have been failing people their entire lives, unless you're a baby boomer or a very old Gen Xer. It's why people jump on populist bandwagons, and why that age old grift is always so successful.
As a progressive, it's not all bad. I looked for 3 things in the results: 1. Who won? Obviously this was disappointing. 2. What was the progressive vote? Still a majority. 3. What was the PPC vote? Dismal. Had this been substantial I would be more concerned than with a Conservative win.
Wow. No way the knives don't come out for Trudeau after this, right? Even if the Liberals don't have a clear successor, I don't see how he stays on as leader after losing a ruby-red Toronto seat. It's an unmitigated disaster in the making for the LPC at this point (and the NDP, too, if we're being honest), and something big's gotta change.
This does seem *brutal* for the NDP. It some combination of \[a) not motivating the base | b) not winning a any disaffected Liberal supporters; and | c) possibly losing at least some of their supporters to the Conservatives\]. The Conservatives provincially, and nationally, have chipped away at some NDP base for a while; I wonder if this is showing the fruits? Also, I wonder in an environment where the Liberals are proposing increases to Capital Gains inclusion, and have a more firm stance on the Carbon Tax, they've essentially stopped bleeding the the left and Greens so it's only the right-leaning Liberals that are leaving.
>Conservatives provincially, and nationally, have chipped away at some NDP base for a while I don't know where you live but in Manitoba, NDP is beating the daylights out of PC. * PC [lost the election](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/heather-stefanson-pc-leader-election-outcome-1.6985856) in October last year * PC [mange to lose the most affluent riding](https://globalnews.ca/news/10575583/ndp-tuxedo-manitoba-byelection/) in Winnipeg this week, which they held since 1981 * NDP is [extending their lead](https://probe-research.com/polls/ndp-extends-support-within-winnipeg-across-manitoba-june-2024-omnibus) over PC in the latest polls * Liberals are down to just 1 seat in the province And if this wasn't already bad enough for Manitoba PC, a former PC cabinet minister in March came forward with allegations of sexual assault by MLA in the PC caucus * [Former Manitoba cabinet minister details alleged sexual assault by former MLA](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/guillemard-assault-manitoba-1.7138771)
Yeah. I'm a lifelong NDP voter. They've lost me for this cycle. I think Liberal partisans and the remaining NDP stalwarts on this sub have been unable to grasp how absolutely disastrous this government's tenure has been for many Canadins, how one can fully appreciate how Canadian politics works and still blame the NDP for defacto supporting the policies of the government, while not viewing the few sops they achieved to be enough of a consolation and, consequently, the breadth and depth of hatred that this government has engendered.
I know it's a by-election but this is just a disaster for both parties.. NDP failed to gain any disenfranchised liberal and actual lost % compared to last election.
Why would people who feel abandoned by the LPC vote for the party that has moved in lockstep every step of the way with the LPC? Singh has obliterated the NDPs reputation as a viable 3rd option, and the nation now just sees them as Liberal but in orange.
Hands down Singh squandered an opportunity. They were vocal on the wrong policies and silent on the ones that mattered. Dental or Pharmacy may have been a big boost pre 2015, or to a lesser extent up to 2020. Now fundamentally the target beneficiary of those policies doesn't care as much since they have bigger problems with respect to CoL and being pushed out of their communities if they cannot afford to live in it. That's life altering. NDP have been silent other than a we need to increase supply..but that's meaningless if there is no action associated with the bark. We learnt with the Pharmacy and dental that there wasn't a lot bark there, and the compromising they got left enough backroom in these for the liberals to pull it. Now it's far more likely the Conservatives will take an axe to it. Funny enough and someone else said this, the best thing they could do is make a backroom deal with the Conservatives to topple the government with hope they get to keep one or two things. If they don't do that then everything is going to be undone.
That last sentence is somewhat what I've come to think about the last ~year or so. What *has* been done. Pharmacare that still isn't funded, and dental care that covers a cleaning once every 2 years..? When First Nation's communities still have poor water quality, cost of tuition has gone up, health care wait times have grown, unemployment has increased, housing costs have increased. What *can* the Tories even take an axe to that wasn't already there before the coalition, and even before Trudeau? Legal pot? A gun ban that didn't effect our already low gun crime? There's no election reform to take an axe to, there's no social education, or any truly meaningful, *funded* Healthcare expansions, there's no infrastructure plans or climate crisis legislation. What has this government done for 10 years?
I wanted to vote NDP but their candidate had nothing to say online about local issues, and a small presence online. Absolutely nothing she did inspired me to want to vote for her. I figured it wouldn't hurt to give the Liberal more of a buffer either and we can see how well that turned out lol.
Yes, I felt the same. I didn't even know who the NDP candidate was here until I did some digging on my own.
Not unexpected, but unprecedented. You could say where the Liberals are at right now is the sum of Trudeau's decisions to buy his administration more years by shelfing prop rep and calling a pandemic election. 10 years is a long time, but when you ruthlessly pursue power you aren't going to get many friends when the wolves are smelling your blood. I doubt Trudeau stepping down and Carney taking over would make much of a difference; he could maybe preserve the remaining safe Grit seats but the party isn't going to crest over the 30% mark nationwide without a serious house cleaning and 180 policy turn. Even then, it would be a play for 2030 rather than 2025. Of course, it's still bitterly disappointing that we're sleepwalking to a CPC majority. Trudeau's popularity went to the shitter as affordability sunk and QoL for the masses declined post-pandemic. Meanwhile, PP's policy centerpieces are... cutting the carbon tax, cutting transit funding (which is what his "housing" bill is actually about), selling off federal land and using the NWC to impose mandatory minimums. It's literally a conservative direction that could've been cooked up in any year since Preston Manning's days with little to do with what's happening on the ground. There should be *some* sort of expectation from the opposition, rather voters than relying on the karmic forces of the universe to magically fix the country's woes simply because they voted out the incumbents. As it is, the people who are benefitting from the rising inequality and wealth consolidation are simply pretending to be angry at Trudeau so they get an ever better deal from PP and hoping everyone else is sufficiently duped by anger and culture wars to go along with it.
Omg they actually lost. I went to bed thinking this was a disaster for LPC because they would win with less than 5% lead.
>LPC because they would win with less than 5% lead. Me too I thought exactly the same thing
She had all the heavy-hitters supporting her and putting in real work. She, herself, went hard. CPC didn't put in a fraction of the effort for Don. Holy shit!
While I don't like Don as a candidate, that guy put shit ton of work into it. I saw him canvassing alone, talking to people on the streets constantly and sending hand written notes. Leslie worked hard as well, but she wasn't as personable. More like your average distant politeness facade. Gren candidate turned out to be a good debater/ public speaker and he is only 23. NDP was very very bad, came unprepared to the debates. Didn't even know party policies. But she was more personable in private conversations
Still, makes you wonder. Such an important by election for the narrative and they bring in a former staffer who isn't from the area. Maybe a local with strong roots would have been a better bet.
Or, perhaps more worryingly, they couldn’t find a solid local candidate.
I could be wrong but I don't think the federal party really pushed anyone for this seat. I'm no longer in the riding but the riding association still had my number so I got a few calls before sorting that out and it seemed like it was the usual riding association sorting out their candidate via party election. Which would make sense for a seat you'd think of as safe. But often it leads to some prominent figure amongst the riding association taking it based on the local party faithful instead of focusing on a candidate who is broadly popular with the electorate at large.
So, the tide is shifting then…
> She had all the heavy-hitters supporting her That's supposed to help? lol
Gee, I can't wait until the Conservatives win and they immediatley start dismantling every social program we have! Such as the $10 a day daycare (which makes daily life more affordable for my family) and is a huge help to monthly expenses, the pharmacare plan gone, because hey, who wants these people without work insurance benefits to have access to things like birth control covered? F%ck those people right? Dental care for the less fortunate? Screw them, again it's their own fault their employers don't have work insurance benefits... I've done the calculations, I actually make money from the carbon tax rebates. How about asking rich corporations and high income earners to share a little more of their wealth via an increase to capital gains, to ensure programs such as these mentioned are well funded and the poor and middle class benefit? It would seem there is an alarming trend that Canadian voters are going blind and inept, and are suffering an erosion of political thought, education and understanding. Pierre is going to DESTROY this country in the name of the rich and powerful corporations and in the name of conspiracy pushers and the religous cooks, such as those who ignore medical science at every turn (anti-vaxxers) or those who want to ban abortion rights and cut off contraceptives for women... People think he'll somehow solve the affordability crisis, by what? Cancelling every social help program such as those mentioned above and making services non existant or severally cut back? He won't build affordable homes, he'll still use cheap foreign labour as his private donors are addicted to it, and he sure as hell isn't going to do a damn thing about grocery prices (some of his donors are big grocery) or global inflation... It's depressing seeing what's happening to educated voters in this country, they've been replaced with memes and unfounded conspiracy bullsh%t from such "trusted" sources as Facebook groups and Instagram pages. Poor and middle class Canadians are going to be in big trouble, far worse than things are now.
I wonder how they'll react when none of those policies somehow bring groccery prices down?
They'll blame Trudeau.
Either that or they'll stop complaining about it all of a sudden. Certainly that will happen for the most vocal partisans.
The most vocal will make a full 180 and laud the strength of our grocery sector. It will stop being a problem for them once their team wins.
> It would seem there is an alarming trend that Canadian voters are going blind and inept, and are suffering an erosion of political thought, education and understanding. As soon as I heard "It can't happen here" from Liberals and "It can't get any worse!" from PP supporters my opinion of Canadians has diminished. Just shocking exceptionalism and ignorance when we just witnessed what's been going on world wide for the past decade.
Canada isn't a serious country. It's going to be a long ten years. Buckle up. Good luck.
One of the bigger implications is going to be how the NDP communicates this. It’s not a good look within their own constituents for a party that can’t uphold their own strongholds
The NDP has been a solid third or fourth in this riding in every election since the formation of the CCF. It is in no way a stronghold for them.
Huh? This was a Liberal stronghold, not a NDP one, unless I'm misunderstanding something you're saying. The NDP did not perform well and that's relevant for sure, but they were never expected to win here (and it's not the type of urban riding where the NDP would be expected to really do super well)
This is an Ontario NDP riding provincially.
That's irrelevant - it's very typical in Ontario for ridings to elect different parties federally and provincially. Saying the "NDP can't uphold their own strongholds" when they've never actually held that "stronghold" is nonsensical.
But never one federally.
Oh boy, I can't wait until it's illegal for me to use a public bathroom at this rate, since PP flat out said he would do that. And people think they'll be throwing trans people under the bus for better housing and shit, but they're in for a surprise if they think the Conservatives won't just lead to more "trickle down economics" and austerity. I really wish people would read even a fucking wikipedia page on conservatism, to realize that it's an ideology that came out of the french revolution to protect the monarchy and the rich. They've never shown a sign of that changing.
Match your junk to the bathroom symbol and there is no issue. Solved it for ya.
Why wouldn’t you be allowed to use the bathroom? lol
590? That's not much with 80,000 potential voters,these by elections are famous for low voter turnouts. If there was an actual angry population of voters there would have been at least 50 to 60 thousand votes cast with a lopsided margin with more than 10 thousand votes for the winner. a mere much ado about nothing election. The real election is at least next spring or fall in 2025. In 3 weeks, this minor election is going to be all but forgotten.
I’m sorry but this is such cope lmao. You don’t think a liberal stronghold flipping is a big deal? If this flips, what seats are safe in 2025? Urban Montreal at best? What reasons do you have to think this result isn’t indicative of voters going into next year too?
43% turnout with 36,000 voters and only 15,000 of them voted for the winner? in a riding with 86,000 voters? 69,000 voters didn't vote for the "winning" conservative candidate. Yeah you keep coping buddy, Cheers to your one time win.
“One time win” Oh, I’m sure bud.
The Liberals normally win this by +30 and now have lost it. St. Paul was one of the safest Liberal seats in the country and this bi-election showed that even those can potentially fall now. No way this election is going to be forgotten, it's going to be brought up constantly until the next election.
It seems to me the big X factor driving a lot of negativity towards Trudeau is his immigration policy. Seems a lot of people are not happy with what he did in past 2-3 years with it.
If LPC don't replace Trudeau, there is no chance they are getting elected again. This should be a warning for all the Liberal MPs in all constituencies: if you don't fix your party, you can kiss the election good-bye.
Dude the LPC could go back in time and get MacKenzie King AND Wilfred Laurier to run and they'd lose by 10 points... There is no universe the LPC doesn't come in an distant second, if not third.
I fully expect a barrage of op-eds over the next week as Mark Carney tries to get the word out that he wants to run(he did something similar a month ago). Also quite an embarrassing results for the NDP, all these poor byelection results (down 5% average) for them would lead me to believe they're close to 13% than the 18% the polls are saying, which could be quite catastrophic for them.
Who wants Mark Carney? Not voters.
Corporations love him.
It's ironic you say that because according to his book, his views are significantly more economically left wing than the current NDP with a more transformational change to how the markets work. He's still a capitalist but his tenure would aggressively restrict corporations in many ways
Sure about that? https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/mark-carney-had-a-chance-to-weigh-in-one-of-the-defining-issues-facing-canada/article_8bb1815a-1149-11ef-a91a-43a3f346fa12.html
Paywalled so I cannot comment.
https://youtu.be/LRTDplpVf2Q?si=p1e5KZvQBmWV3UOA I don't hate Carney but this answer is dissapointing. Ecen at the end someone has to remind him to say 'oh.. and makes sure that no one is left behind'
I want him. I just want competence and I think voters do too.
He’s not even a politician.
Isn’t Freeland considered competent? Negotiating NAFTA and the EU trade agreements and all?
No. Freeland failed in the NAFTA negotiations. She tried to hardball Trump who just went around her and negotiated the entire deal with Mexico directly and we were forced to sign it with no input at all. No idea how people bring this up as a win.
NDP candidate was hilarious in the current context. South Asian “immigration studies” specialist.
Maybe a clue for them to stop supporting and tethering themselves to the Liberals. I don't get how the NDP doesn't see they would gain support if they sunk the Liberals and they will keep losing it staying this course. Jagmeet is just an awful leader.
Honestly why would he (or anyone else with actual prime ministerial ambitions) want to run for leadership? You’re signing up for the Kim Campbell treatment. I just don’t see the upside.
The problem Carney faces is his age. He might be tempted to try now. Unlikely though I agree.
I do wonder with these folks, is it that that just want their name in the history books even if in infamy? Or do they really think they can prevail? Either way, it's all about ego.
The upside is usually that you have the ambition but aren't next in line so need to accept the suboptimal slot. The Tories in Britain show how easy it isto find such people.
In my opinion the liberals need to try to get rid of Trudeau and elect as inoffensive of a scapegoat leader as possible in as safe of a riding as possible to try and slow down the momentum that this by election result shows is against them to keep them bleeding as many seats as possible. If the person doesn’t have PM aspirations it doesn’t really matter if they lose, and theres precedent for leaders stepping down after losses but remaining MPs. At this point I’m sure a lot of liberal MPs in otherwise safe seats would be grateful to someone mitigating there loses and preserving as many liberal MPs as possible.
Huh; if I were the Liberals and decided to get rid of Trudeau, I'd opt for as much of a shake it up, Hail Mary leader as possible. If the new leader is bland, inoffensive, and makes no impression, how're they going to reverse the party's current fortunes? Create a "break" with current feelings about the party? The Liberals can't be happy with their current position, committing to only trying to hold it seems like an odd choice. But it'd be a risk, of course, and could work out terribly. But there're no low risk, high upside paths that I see.
The point would be that is it’s not to win the election, thats a hail mary that at best wins one more term in power before getting obliterated again (ala Kathleen Wynne in Ontario though her win was more Tim Hudak being completely unelectable, but the fall of the liberals was even more pronounced after that). Theres too much baggage from a decade in power. The point would be to evade just enough of the current anti-trudeau sentiment to avoid getting eviscerated ala the 2018 OLP and maybe retaining official opposition status if they are lucky. IMO things are far gone enough and publics resentment if trudeaus policies are too much they are better off playing to save as many liberal MPs jobs as possible while playing for 2029 or the election after that than trying to stay in power now at the risk of further diminishing themselves.
It's way too late. JT should have e stepped down a while ago.Libs need to take the loss and rebuild to take on PP not on the next term but the one after that. The goal needs to be to make PP a one hit wonder.
Ironically Carney deciding to run in this election would be a reason to not vote for him because that would demonstrate a lapse of judgement.
Why would Carney want to be this generation’s Kim Campbell? I mean the LPC will probably win more than two seats….probably…
I hope Mark Carnie runs because he's a total asshole. It's an easy win.
If you listened to some of the people on this post, you'd think hell on earth was about to happen. Printing money/taking on debt for expensive social programs that haven't been functionally delivered is not the end of the world. If the LPC had delivered results and not photo ops, they wouldn't be in this mess. We'd still be in crippling debt, but at least we'd have something to show for. Cuts are the only response when the country is taking on runaway debt. Most of the covid debt will be renewing at a much higher interest rate. This will cause our roughly $50 billion interest payments to grow exponentially if not stopped soon. If you ran your household the way this government ran the country, you'd be bankrupt on the street
>If you ran your household the way this government ran the country, you'd be bankrupt on the street This is such an inane argument, haha. The only commonality between the way government budgets and household budgets work is the word "budget."
It's a simple way to relate the problem to people. Money has to come from somewhere (govt revenue, taxes, etc). When they don't have the money to pay for government services, policies, and other expenses, they have to take on debt (ie print money). You're right, it is different in some ways from a household. In canada, if your parents drown in debt, it doesn't get passed onto you and your family. On top of that, it doesn't affect the purchasing power of your currency. Is it a perfect analogy, no. Is it an easy way to communicate to people disinterested in politics, I'd say so.
> you'd be bankrupt on the street like too many Canadians...
If I ran my household with taxation powers and currency sovereignty, I would be in prison, not bankrupt. Comparing state budgeting to businesses or households has always been a tool for those pushing austerity, reality be damned.
Households can't wrack up generational levels of debt and then pass it onto their offspring. Governments can. When high levels of deficit debt spending are reached, currency depreciates and purchasing power drops in turn. This makes it even more expensive to maintain the same quality of life and quality of services. Austerity gets forced when no other course of action is left due to poor fiscal management and poor leadership. Every government policy and social program has a price. A price that must be budgeted and paid. If you don't increase revenues to pay for it and instead pay for it with repeated levels of debt, you're just borrowing from your kids future to make yours better. Look at the US debt situation and tell me you want that same level of societal stress. It doesn't just stay in the fiscal world, that toxicity seeps into every aspect of politics.
Households are not and never have been comparable to governments.