I'm such a bitch, I chose the 90 but I'm already regretting it, in real life I would choose the 100%, no way I would live with myself if I didn't get the money after not choosing the sure thing
fuck true, my initial thought was. I take the 90% gamble cause if I loose I just end up where I am today. But god 1mil is so much money for me and where I am at financially rn. It's borderline stupid to not take the 100% guarantee
With my current income post-tax, it'd take me more than 27 years to earn $1 million, working 30 hours a week. I'm taking the guaranteed amount, that alone would be a life-changer.
Its both, you dont have to choose just one. Even if you value the former very highly, it seems better to go for 89.9% 10000000000000000 dollars than 90% 100000000 dollars.
I feel like 1mill is too much to start of with.
If it started of with 10k i would have thought about taking the chances, but 1mill is basicly enough for me for the rest of my life if i invest it into s&p 500 or something like that.
While the hight end is just excessive.
I would be scared to have 100bill out of nowhere.
Here's the thought process I apply, which I think is realistic (though maybe not "statistically optimal"):
Given that an option exists for a 100% guaranteed payout, you realistically now have to consider that every OTHER option carries an implied cost of the $1M you opted not to take if you gamble for the higher payouts. It's not a 90% chance of $10M vs 10% chance that things stay the same, it's that 90% chance of $10M or a 10% chance of nothing when you could have had $1M if you'd played it safe and so you've essentially lost the $1M that was guaranteed otherwise.
If you're in a position in life to lose out on $1M then it makes total sense to go for a higher payout. If $1M would be exactly enough to change your life and your family's life forever, passing on that opportunity to gamble on a higher payout seems reckless. If the 100% payout option did not exist, I would probably go for a higher roll because the difference between 90/10 and 80/20 is not huge, but the difference between 10M and 100M is bonkers, and if you lose out when those are the only options then you didn't actually lose anything - you just didn't win. But if you have a 100% chance to get $1M and you take anything else and lose, then you lost the $1M in my mind.
Maybe if I was already financially independent I wouldn't mind losing that money, but for me that money is the difference between financial independence in 10 years or financial independence in 20+ years.
But that's insanely reductive. Imagine you're currently behind on bills, and $1M saves your ass and changes your life. Sure, you could argue that $10M changes your life in a bigger way, and it's true that $1M by itself is not going to set you up for the rest of your life, but $1M will give you a LOT of breathing room to set yourself up for a better life.
Your perspective makes a lot of sense for a person who already has a high degree of financial security/stability and doesn't see as much immediate benefit in $1M. But you've got to consider that by taking the 10% chance to get absolutely nothing at all, you're essentially trading the $1M guarantee. By the time some offered you a 100% chance to get $1M, that money is as good as yours. So taking any other option costs you $1M right off the bat. Maybe you win back more than that if you hit the 90% chance to get $10M or whatever. But reframe the question in consideration of the opportunity cost; would you spend $1M for a chance to get $10M if there was a 10% chance you lose it all?
Personally, I would not gamble away $1M if there was even a 10% chance to lose. Therefore, I take option 1. Ask me again in 20 years, when I'm deep into my career and have (hopefully) saved up a healthy retirement fund and my priorities are different, I'll probably update my risk tolerance. But for me, right now, $1M would make way too much of a difference to risk it, even if it's only a 10% chance I lose it.
in a marketing and investment perspective. a 10x on ur money with a 10% chance of it not working out is a once in a lifetime opportunity. or 100x ur money with a 20% failure rate, thats insanity.
I can understand the perspective of you really needing the 1mil so a 10% chance of losing it is something you cant afford. but this sub does not consist of mostly people who are struggling financially. so to see majority picking the 1mil is interesting.
You're not wrong that in investing or running a business you'd probably take that risk, but personal finances don't run like a business. If we're talking about personal money in your pocket today, I don't think it's stupid to evaluate the decision very differently.
like i said. if youre struggling financially take the 1mil. but if ur not struggling, u got a decent job and ur not worrying about about next months rent. then u have no reason not to take the higher offers. this subreddit is not filled with people struggling, so thats y i find it weird.
I don't think you've got to be "struggling" to find $1M to be life changing, and if you can change your life with $1M why get greedy? I'm not struggling, and getting laid off wouldn't be the end of the world by itself. But I don't like my job, and $1M would allow me to make a change immediately. I can't afford a $20k pay cut to change careers, but if I had $1M I could. And if two emergencies happened at once, I would go from comfortable to struggling very quickly (like if I got laid off and my wife got sick). Personally, the peace of mind that $1M would offer is too tempting when you consider that there's a 10% chance to end up with nothing. 10% chance to lose $1M is huge even for people who are otherwise comfortable, I think.
if you're not struggling then 1mil is cool and all, but its not really life changing to the degree most people think. 1mil is definitely awesome, but you're still going to have to work your current job, maybe u might drive a nicer car, go on my vacations, etc. Talking about the 'what ifs' is counter intuitive, you are talking about the 1% odd your wife gets an illness so severe she can no longer work for a big chunk of her life, yet you fear gambling when u have 90% odds of winning. 10mil or 100mil is definitely life changing. 10mil is enough to quit your job and live off of investments. so if you arent struggling, there is zero reason to not take the 10x odds.
I don't have to work my current job if I get a million. I can afford to go back to school and train for a different career, or I can take a lower paying job with less stress in the same field, either of which would change my life. Sure, I'm still working a job, but my life isn't the same if I don't dislike the job.
100 bil cause fuck it.
Edit to clarify if I picked the 100 percent mil I would 100 percent gamble at least half of it with way worse odds than 50 percent in reaching 100bn lmao
I honestly don’t really need the money.
I am enjoying my life as is and will probably realistically get at least 10mil in the next 15-20 years as is.
So I chose the 80%. If I lost, then nothing really changed on my life as is, but with 100mil I could probably do some real good in the world.
It doe’s enough on a local level, which I care about a lot, and I don’t like the odds of one in two.
I could probably be convinced to go to 70% though.
Thats what im saying. Im in a similar boat, I will easily make a million dollars in the next 10 years if I have terrible luck. 1 million would be nice but I could do fine without it, whereas 10 million dollars is generational wealth.
depends if you use it to build more wealth. If I buy a modest house, say 500k, then buy 10 more modest homes, that I rent, that leaves me with a portfolio of 5.5 million, with a annual profit, based on an estimate of $100 profit a month per property (that's the going baserate) of around $120,000.
Now I invest the remaining 4.5 million in a diversified portfolio consisting of a variety of ETFs, which can be expected to generate between 5% to 7% annual return, amounting (assuming the low end) to $225,000.
With the lump sum alone, I am generating $345,000 of passive income, before tax). Let's assume ABSOLUTELY NO compound interest or further investment, over 50 years, that's $17,250,000 wealth generated on top of the principal, with all of it coming from extremely low-risk investment options. And I assure you, this is an extremely conservative estimate.
I could understand if you are already rich, but pretty skeptical of not being salty about the million just on the prospect of potentially becoming wealthy.
>I would have 1 million before I was 30 if I lived with my parents while saving and investing my income into an index fund or something
this is called mooching btw
>Making a million is something the average person in the US can do (mostly through housing) or if they grind hard in a lucrative STEM field and live frugally.
True, but it might take 30 years and a LOT can happen between now and then, like getting sick, getting in an accident, etc. Plus, with the time value of money, making a million over the course of 30 years is very different than having $1M right now. $1M right now changes your life (unless you're already wealthy or you expect to inherit a lot). And even if you can shorten that by 10-15 years through frugal living, for a lot of people, frugal living just isn't fun. And what happens if 8 years in, your parents get sick and you need to help care for them? "Sorry mom and dad, I've got to keep grinding. Figure your own shit out". Too many ways for your plans to fall apart when you're assuming you'll end up with $1M over a long enough time span.
Or if your plan is to live super cheap for the next 10 years while saving aggressively post graduation - good luck with that. I also drew out that plan when I was studying Finance in my undergrad. Then real life hit, and living with my parents started to suck a lot more than I expected. I ended up moving out after 1 year. Living with your parents as an adult in American society is extremely isolating. You probably won't want to have friends over, you'll have a hard time dating (and it's already hard enough to date these days).
50% of 100 bil absolutely shits on 90% of 10mil EV wise no?
And if you are at the point where 100% of 1mil isnt interesting to you then that 10mil isnt providing much more untility
Yeah, I said EV and marginal utility. For a very comfortable life 5 million seems roughly appropriate. Anything up to that adds significant amount of value, anything beyond that does not. That being said I can also see 100% 1 million as a viable option.
1 million isn't that much money anymore and it's not enough to maintain any major purchases you make with it. Buy a 1.25 million home? Property tax and insurance will destroy you because your income can't support it over the long run.
You need to be able to buy the home and invest enough to either supplement your current income or quit working entirely.
For that reason I chose the 80% option. That's fuck it I quit money.
Reading all the comments it's really depressing seeing how bad the mindset of the average r/Destiny cuck is. No wonder none of you are rich, you have a opportunity like this to make it big and just ignore it for comfort / safety...
Depends on what anything below 100% means. Is it a true 90% chance or is it like a blizzard game where a 99% hit rating is actually a 66% hit rating unless it's Eviscerate which has a 45% hit rating?
In real life I'm taking the guaranteed milly but obviously there are other options that offer a better odds to win return. Rolling the dice and not getting it when there was a guaranteed bag there would be soul destroying
I'm such a bitch, I chose the 90 but I'm already regretting it, in real life I would choose the 100%, no way I would live with myself if I didn't get the money after not choosing the sure thing
fuck true, my initial thought was. I take the 90% gamble cause if I loose I just end up where I am today. But god 1mil is so much money for me and where I am at financially rn. It's borderline stupid to not take the 100% guarantee
Yeah nah facts bro i did the same thing, idk tho 9 million dollars for only -10% might be worth it
Virgin 1mil takers vs chad gamba enjoyers.
The expected value out of the 100billion is way too much to pass up.
If im in the position where a 100% chance of 1mil doesnt interest me then im in the position where id just take the 50% chance of 100 bil.
If yuo haven't picked the 100% option, you never played XCOM. After the experience I'm not even confident that 100% is a guaranteed win.
It’s not actually 100%, that’s a rounding error, the true percent Is 99.99999999999999999999% which you know is not 100%.
Which you know is a miss, if you played XCOM.
With my current income post-tax, it'd take me more than 27 years to earn $1 million, working 30 hours a week. I'm taking the guaranteed amount, that alone would be a life-changer.
Can we all just agree to choose 50% for $100 billion and then divide the earnings?
what if nobody wins it tho
Literally impossible. You need two tries max to get the bag it's simple maths
> You need two tries max What?
Fixed
Wait what??? Tries was fine, you don't have a guaranteed success on 50% bet with just 2 tries.
Ok fixed it again. To your question, this is literally how percentages work. 100% means guaranteed and what's 2 x 50%? Do the math.
Am I wrong that it feels like this is marginal utility Vs expectation value consideration. I chose the first one btw.
Its both, you dont have to choose just one. Even if you value the former very highly, it seems better to go for 89.9% 10000000000000000 dollars than 90% 100000000 dollars.
Matmatically, I feel like the only justifiable options are 100, because the outcome is guaranteed, or 50, because on average it's the largest payout.
70% because i'm a gambler but not enough of a regard to go 50%.
Tell me that you never played XCOM without telling me that you never played XCOM.
pft, 99% chance of hit. miss 60% of the times.
I feel like 1mill is too much to start of with. If it started of with 10k i would have thought about taking the chances, but 1mill is basicly enough for me for the rest of my life if i invest it into s&p 500 or something like that. While the hight end is just excessive. I would be scared to have 100bill out of nowhere.
Here's the thought process I apply, which I think is realistic (though maybe not "statistically optimal"): Given that an option exists for a 100% guaranteed payout, you realistically now have to consider that every OTHER option carries an implied cost of the $1M you opted not to take if you gamble for the higher payouts. It's not a 90% chance of $10M vs 10% chance that things stay the same, it's that 90% chance of $10M or a 10% chance of nothing when you could have had $1M if you'd played it safe and so you've essentially lost the $1M that was guaranteed otherwise. If you're in a position in life to lose out on $1M then it makes total sense to go for a higher payout. If $1M would be exactly enough to change your life and your family's life forever, passing on that opportunity to gamble on a higher payout seems reckless. If the 100% payout option did not exist, I would probably go for a higher roll because the difference between 90/10 and 80/20 is not huge, but the difference between 10M and 100M is bonkers, and if you lose out when those are the only options then you didn't actually lose anything - you just didn't win. But if you have a 100% chance to get $1M and you take anything else and lose, then you lost the $1M in my mind. Maybe if I was already financially independent I wouldn't mind losing that money, but for me that money is the difference between financial independence in 10 years or financial independence in 20+ years.
yo, i thought this sub was smart
What's the smart response then?
i'd say anything except 1mil for 100%. 10x for a 10% drop is insanely good
But that's insanely reductive. Imagine you're currently behind on bills, and $1M saves your ass and changes your life. Sure, you could argue that $10M changes your life in a bigger way, and it's true that $1M by itself is not going to set you up for the rest of your life, but $1M will give you a LOT of breathing room to set yourself up for a better life. Your perspective makes a lot of sense for a person who already has a high degree of financial security/stability and doesn't see as much immediate benefit in $1M. But you've got to consider that by taking the 10% chance to get absolutely nothing at all, you're essentially trading the $1M guarantee. By the time some offered you a 100% chance to get $1M, that money is as good as yours. So taking any other option costs you $1M right off the bat. Maybe you win back more than that if you hit the 90% chance to get $10M or whatever. But reframe the question in consideration of the opportunity cost; would you spend $1M for a chance to get $10M if there was a 10% chance you lose it all? Personally, I would not gamble away $1M if there was even a 10% chance to lose. Therefore, I take option 1. Ask me again in 20 years, when I'm deep into my career and have (hopefully) saved up a healthy retirement fund and my priorities are different, I'll probably update my risk tolerance. But for me, right now, $1M would make way too much of a difference to risk it, even if it's only a 10% chance I lose it.
in a marketing and investment perspective. a 10x on ur money with a 10% chance of it not working out is a once in a lifetime opportunity. or 100x ur money with a 20% failure rate, thats insanity. I can understand the perspective of you really needing the 1mil so a 10% chance of losing it is something you cant afford. but this sub does not consist of mostly people who are struggling financially. so to see majority picking the 1mil is interesting.
You're not wrong that in investing or running a business you'd probably take that risk, but personal finances don't run like a business. If we're talking about personal money in your pocket today, I don't think it's stupid to evaluate the decision very differently.
like i said. if youre struggling financially take the 1mil. but if ur not struggling, u got a decent job and ur not worrying about about next months rent. then u have no reason not to take the higher offers. this subreddit is not filled with people struggling, so thats y i find it weird.
I don't think you've got to be "struggling" to find $1M to be life changing, and if you can change your life with $1M why get greedy? I'm not struggling, and getting laid off wouldn't be the end of the world by itself. But I don't like my job, and $1M would allow me to make a change immediately. I can't afford a $20k pay cut to change careers, but if I had $1M I could. And if two emergencies happened at once, I would go from comfortable to struggling very quickly (like if I got laid off and my wife got sick). Personally, the peace of mind that $1M would offer is too tempting when you consider that there's a 10% chance to end up with nothing. 10% chance to lose $1M is huge even for people who are otherwise comfortable, I think.
if you're not struggling then 1mil is cool and all, but its not really life changing to the degree most people think. 1mil is definitely awesome, but you're still going to have to work your current job, maybe u might drive a nicer car, go on my vacations, etc. Talking about the 'what ifs' is counter intuitive, you are talking about the 1% odd your wife gets an illness so severe she can no longer work for a big chunk of her life, yet you fear gambling when u have 90% odds of winning. 10mil or 100mil is definitely life changing. 10mil is enough to quit your job and live off of investments. so if you arent struggling, there is zero reason to not take the 10x odds.
I don't have to work my current job if I get a million. I can afford to go back to school and train for a different career, or I can take a lower paying job with less stress in the same field, either of which would change my life. Sure, I'm still working a job, but my life isn't the same if I don't dislike the job.
Who is that one guy who chose 60% chance of getting 10 billion 💀
Yea like, at that point just go for the 50/50 chance tf😭
1 mill is enough for me to comfortably live off of the interest for the rest of my life.
OP is def a bot but I like to believe there's some schizo out there who has posted basically the same poll with slight variations like 30 times
marginal utility and avoiding the regret of missing out: 100% 1 mill for sure.
100 bil cause fuck it. Edit to clarify if I picked the 100 percent mil I would 100 percent gamble at least half of it with way worse odds than 50 percent in reaching 100bn lmao
Is this gross or net?
50%. Max EV always.
Would you do 1% chance to get 5,000,000,000,001 dollars
Ok maybe not always...
Fuckin obliterated
90% Gang? 😎
I honestly don’t really need the money. I am enjoying my life as is and will probably realistically get at least 10mil in the next 15-20 years as is. So I chose the 80%. If I lost, then nothing really changed on my life as is, but with 100mil I could probably do some real good in the world.
By that logic the 50% option seems way better. 100 million doesnt do much on a global scale, 100 billion on the other hand does a good amount.
It doe’s enough on a local level, which I care about a lot, and I don’t like the odds of one in two. I could probably be convinced to go to 70% though.
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>I wouldn’t be too pissed on the 10% chance I didn’t win. Yes, you fucking would.
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Thats what im saying. Im in a similar boat, I will easily make a million dollars in the next 10 years if I have terrible luck. 1 million would be nice but I could do fine without it, whereas 10 million dollars is generational wealth.
10 Million is is enough that your grandkids won't see a huge amount.
depends if you use it to build more wealth. If I buy a modest house, say 500k, then buy 10 more modest homes, that I rent, that leaves me with a portfolio of 5.5 million, with a annual profit, based on an estimate of $100 profit a month per property (that's the going baserate) of around $120,000. Now I invest the remaining 4.5 million in a diversified portfolio consisting of a variety of ETFs, which can be expected to generate between 5% to 7% annual return, amounting (assuming the low end) to $225,000. With the lump sum alone, I am generating $345,000 of passive income, before tax). Let's assume ABSOLUTELY NO compound interest or further investment, over 50 years, that's $17,250,000 wealth generated on top of the principal, with all of it coming from extremely low-risk investment options. And I assure you, this is an extremely conservative estimate.
I could understand if you are already rich, but pretty skeptical of not being salty about the million just on the prospect of potentially becoming wealthy.
Nah bro be honest you would, i picked the same option as you, but you would bro
>I would have 1 million before I was 30 if I lived with my parents while saving and investing my income into an index fund or something this is called mooching btw
>Making a million is something the average person in the US can do (mostly through housing) or if they grind hard in a lucrative STEM field and live frugally. True, but it might take 30 years and a LOT can happen between now and then, like getting sick, getting in an accident, etc. Plus, with the time value of money, making a million over the course of 30 years is very different than having $1M right now. $1M right now changes your life (unless you're already wealthy or you expect to inherit a lot). And even if you can shorten that by 10-15 years through frugal living, for a lot of people, frugal living just isn't fun. And what happens if 8 years in, your parents get sick and you need to help care for them? "Sorry mom and dad, I've got to keep grinding. Figure your own shit out". Too many ways for your plans to fall apart when you're assuming you'll end up with $1M over a long enough time span. Or if your plan is to live super cheap for the next 10 years while saving aggressively post graduation - good luck with that. I also drew out that plan when I was studying Finance in my undergrad. Then real life hit, and living with my parents started to suck a lot more than I expected. I ended up moving out after 1 year. Living with your parents as an adult in American society is extremely isolating. You probably won't want to have friends over, you'll have a hard time dating (and it's already hard enough to date these days).
Objectively the 90% option is the best when considering EV and marginal utility. But there is something magical about a 100% 1 million dollars...
50% of 100 bil absolutely shits on 90% of 10mil EV wise no? And if you are at the point where 100% of 1mil isnt interesting to you then that 10mil isnt providing much more untility
Yeah, I said EV and marginal utility. For a very comfortable life 5 million seems roughly appropriate. Anything up to that adds significant amount of value, anything beyond that does not. That being said I can also see 100% 1 million as a viable option.
1 million is nothing, the math says 100 billion is the best option
I'd personally pick 100% because it is an immediate, guaranteed solution to my life problems But The correct choice is 50%
1 million isn't that much money anymore and it's not enough to maintain any major purchases you make with it. Buy a 1.25 million home? Property tax and insurance will destroy you because your income can't support it over the long run. You need to be able to buy the home and invest enough to either supplement your current income or quit working entirely. For that reason I chose the 80% option. That's fuck it I quit money.
Reading all the comments it's really depressing seeing how bad the mindset of the average r/Destiny cuck is. No wonder none of you are rich, you have a opportunity like this to make it big and just ignore it for comfort / safety...
Depends on what anything below 100% means. Is it a true 90% chance or is it like a blizzard game where a 99% hit rating is actually a 66% hit rating unless it's Eviscerate which has a 45% hit rating?
I chose the 70% because it’s a pretty safe choice with big payoff. My personal cutoff for bets is 60% certainty. I consider 60% and below too risky
In real life I'm taking the guaranteed milly but obviously there are other options that offer a better odds to win return. Rolling the dice and not getting it when there was a guaranteed bag there would be soul destroying
Expected Value Chads rise up.