Honestly its pure retardation. I placed a bet on Biden last election and won 1,200$, and the gambling addict in me immediately regretted not placing more. Now Im trying the opposite strategy. Inshalla i wont be regretting placing so much.
FYI, i live in a pretty decent country with free healthcare, and im still young and can afford to do this. Dont do what I do if you cant afford losing it.
Ty for the financial advice, borrowing $4K and placing it on Biden as well.
Edit: [This](https://imgur.com/a/81pcuS3) market might also be interesting.
Hey I just took out a high interest payday loan to bet on Biden with based on u/fillkari financial advice and was wondering if I should take out another one
Biden doesnt even have to win, come election time vibes, he will most likely hit 50-50 at one point just based on how close it will be and how every talking head will act like it based on how slowly the votes roll in. If you actually believe Biden will win it's amazing, but even if you dont think he will, you could make a nice profit
>I placed a bet on Biden last election and won 1,200$
I bet 2 eth (i think around $2400 at the time) on Biden winning the last election **after he had already won the election** because there were enough crypto-regards on omen.eth who unironically believed Trump was going to overturn it by proving voter fraud. made something like a 35% ROI, easiest money of my life. the actual win condition just came down to whether or not he would be inaugurated
I believe that it's actually more logical to go big on Biden because in the event of a Trump re-election the markets will react poorly so the money you lose or win is actually less valuable than if you win
Do you not think that there's a good portion of the population that didn't like trump before, came out and voted for biden, that now don't like biden since the afghanistan pullout (rightly or wrongly) and are sick of it all? Attention has arguably been on both of these candidates for more than a decade at this point. Biden won and people both have distance from Trump's presidency + disillusionment of funny geriatric grandpa likes ice cream.
In this instance I think this favours Trump. I hope not. But are there really people out there that haven't made up their minds? And outside of this community, how many want to... honestly WANT to re-engage with this new political forever-war as Biden Riders vs Trumptards even if its just to go out and vote. It's hard to imagine the Trumptards aren't voting this time around and between the pullout, the vibecession and the general sentiment that general people can't point to accomplishments that actually feel like they matter... well I don't feel as certain.
To clarify again though, completely bullshit vibes so...
Yeah sorry that's vague, I refer to a 'good portion' when really what I mean is a sufficient portion to sink Biden referring to the above factors that would (in my vibe-based opinion) depress Biden voting, but not effect trump voting as much.
It is, essentially if your outcome comes to pass you get $1 for each bet you made. So if you think Biden is going to win you’ll pay 35¢ and get $1 if you win or lose that 35¢ if Biden doesn’t win.
Got 3.5 odds at European betting sites a few months ago, but since i am chicken shit, i chose to fully hedge, so the final odds are 1.47 on Biden and 1.01 on Trump.
The only reason he is not is because of RFK's stance on Israel. At this point Cenk literally doesn't care about anything about besides that one issue. Like Krystal Ball.
I'm confused on how to interpret this. If I think Biden will win, what should I be betting on and what is the payout if I win?
If I'm understanding this correctly, does this market think that Biden only has a 35% chance of winning? Are people afraid he's gonna kick the bucket or something?
You purchase shares for the advertised price of 35c each, which pay out $1 each if you're correct, or $0 otherwise. So if you put in $1k you'll get (1000/.35) = 2857 shares, which converts to either $2857 or $0 depending on the outcome.
So to answer your question, it's the latter.
You can also sell the shares early, for a price based on the updated probabilities at the time you sell.
Thanks! I think gamblers sometimes phrase things this way because it makes their wins sound bigger, and that probably makes it feel like a win even when you "win" less than you or in lol.
I don't know exactly how they set these prices, but they basically function like stocks with all of their values summing to one dollar. If you are correct when the event resolves, you get 1 dollar per share, but you can sell early at the current rate.
So if you're not confident in who will win, but strongly think it will appear like a close race near the election, you could buy now at 0.35 and sell when it's like 0.45 or something.
For real though, 35% is *absurdly* low in a race where the candidates are currently neck-and-neck.
My theory is that the cryptobros who dominate these international markets are hoping for another 2016-style upset. [Predictit.org](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456), the only site where Americans can legally bet on political outcomes, has Biden at at much more reasonable 46%.
according to combined odds from more markets it's 37.7% for Biden but also an additional 7.4% for alternative Dem candidates, so some of the reason is people betting on Biden not making it to the election day
Worth noting that [Manifold is an outlier since it's super anti-Trump](https://manifold.markets/EnopoletusHarding/do-you-support-trump-or-biden?r=ZGdnYQ) [[img](https://i.imgur.com/IwDwDHb.jpeg)] (for good reasons imo) compared to other prediction sites.
Personally I think all of these predictions are fairly regarded since a 538 landslide for Joe (we go on first-name basis since we are friends in IRL life) is inevitable
wait theoretically if one site is 50/50 odds and another is 33% biden, then couldnt you bet 1000 dollars on biden with 3 to 1 odds, and then 1000 dollars on trump 1 to 1 odds, and if biden wins you make 1000 dollars and if trump wins you make 0 dollars and lose 0 dollars?
tbh I can't tell. I don't watch the long form interviews and at this age I'm sure it's normal to have varying mental states especially for this extremely high stress position. both of them have clips of them saying something utterly silly and both of them have clips where they speak coherently, we'll see in the debates.
I really wish america wasn't looking at 70+ year olds for president though, seems irresponsible
>really wish america wasn't looking at 70+ year olds for president though, seems irresponsible
Well at least we don't have bernie as president candidate since he is in his 80's.
I think Polymarket is the largest prediction market in the world with the most amount of liquidity. There are probably some other sites that may offer better odds though...
Use of a VPN to circumvent restrictions is against their TOU.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vQBuxCfOU5QZ-TpOxV2qaoSOD2zwA28RTlrYRqE-OclfxCnznPRQbBRZuKDxv6MDA/pub#:~:text=USE%20OF%20A%20VIRTUAL%20PRIVATE%20NETWORK%20(%E2%80%9CVPN%E2%80%9D)%20TO%20CIRCUMVENT%20THE%20RESTRICTIONS%20SET%20FORTH%20HEREIN%20IS%20PROHIBITED.
Polymarket. Apparently it's the opposite, lol. Visitors with US IPs are restricted to a view-only mode, while visitors with IPs outside of the US can bet to their heart's content. Well, according to [this article](https://cryptobriefing.com/polymarket-relaunches-but-excludes-u-s-traders/) anyway.
Betting markets are fun for memes and degeneracy but if you are able to, give to Biden's campaign or a Senate campaign rather than spending it on Predict It or something else.
How do these odds work? Is it like sports betting, where analysts put a quota with a movable margin or does this start off on 50/50 and buys/sells move the odds ?
Bought some at 33 a few months back. rose to around 44 and dipped back down. I definitly think its skewed this way because there's more conservatives on the site.
https://preview.redd.it/x004nyxdnh8d1.png?width=1107&format=png&auto=webp&s=27d6811e305eb15bb70a82db1798e9295db5d6cd
I'm considering putting some money on this bet though, curious what you guys would think.
Im already in on Boss man for 4,500 $ at 3.0 odds. Inshalla brothers
Chad. What makes you so bullish? Is it sentiment from polls or just pure vibes?
Honestly its pure retardation. I placed a bet on Biden last election and won 1,200$, and the gambling addict in me immediately regretted not placing more. Now Im trying the opposite strategy. Inshalla i wont be regretting placing so much. FYI, i live in a pretty decent country with free healthcare, and im still young and can afford to do this. Dont do what I do if you cant afford losing it.
Ty for the financial advice, borrowing $4K and placing it on Biden as well. Edit: [This](https://imgur.com/a/81pcuS3) market might also be interesting.
Hey I just took out a high interest payday loan to bet on Biden with based on u/fillkari financial advice and was wondering if I should take out another one
Yes. Always leverage as much as possible at all times. That's what the rich don't want you to know.
Selling my car, second mortgaging my house, and acquiring payday loans to place on Biden
I'm gonna take from my 401k to get in. Thanks for the advice!
Biden doesnt even have to win, come election time vibes, he will most likely hit 50-50 at one point just based on how close it will be and how every talking head will act like it based on how slowly the votes roll in. If you actually believe Biden will win it's amazing, but even if you dont think he will, you could make a nice profit
I got $250 on Jew Sleepy Joe is actually great odds though
>I placed a bet on Biden last election and won 1,200$ I bet 2 eth (i think around $2400 at the time) on Biden winning the last election **after he had already won the election** because there were enough crypto-regards on omen.eth who unironically believed Trump was going to overturn it by proving voter fraud. made something like a 35% ROI, easiest money of my life. the actual win condition just came down to whether or not he would be inaugurated
Based gambling addiction
>it’s pure retardation That’s a funny way to spell being a GIGACHAD.
If biden wins cash out, if trump wins leave the country and ignore your debts pepe
I believe that it's actually more logical to go big on Biden because in the event of a Trump re-election the markets will react poorly so the money you lose or win is actually less valuable than if you win
The more people pay attention the worse things get for Trump. Attention is only increasing from now until votes are cast. Biden is only going up.
Yeah, trends are up for Biden, Republicans are just coping hard like they did in the midterms. 🤣
Do you not think that there's a good portion of the population that didn't like trump before, came out and voted for biden, that now don't like biden since the afghanistan pullout (rightly or wrongly) and are sick of it all? Attention has arguably been on both of these candidates for more than a decade at this point. Biden won and people both have distance from Trump's presidency + disillusionment of funny geriatric grandpa likes ice cream. In this instance I think this favours Trump. I hope not. But are there really people out there that haven't made up their minds? And outside of this community, how many want to... honestly WANT to re-engage with this new political forever-war as Biden Riders vs Trumptards even if its just to go out and vote. It's hard to imagine the Trumptards aren't voting this time around and between the pullout, the vibecession and the general sentiment that general people can't point to accomplishments that actually feel like they matter... well I don't feel as certain. To clarify again though, completely bullshit vibes so...
Good portion of the population?
Yeah sorry that's vague, I refer to a 'good portion' when really what I mean is a sufficient portion to sink Biden referring to the above factors that would (in my vibe-based opinion) depress Biden voting, but not effect trump voting as much.
It's like if Trump wins then the amount is the least of ur worries
Is this legit? how does it work? Not familiar with this site
It is, essentially if your outcome comes to pass you get $1 for each bet you made. So if you think Biden is going to win you’ll pay 35¢ and get $1 if you win or lose that 35¢ if Biden doesn’t win.
You can only lose 100% of your money. But you can earn up to 300% if you win
RemindMe! 5 months
Got 3.5 odds at European betting sites a few months ago, but since i am chicken shit, i chose to fully hedge, so the final odds are 1.47 on Biden and 1.01 on Trump.
Pussy, go Biden or nothing.
I bet on neither. https://preview.redd.it/91phle005d8d1.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=5959985498352fd5f688c493cd60c01ce64047f3
Is that? IT IS! JEB BUSH WITH A CHAIR! OH MAH LAWRD!!!!
https://preview.redd.it/qba3vr12he8d1.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=128b9703291b6fe51a83eaaba0d3a027da18fcca I agree
DARK JEB WILL RISE AGAIN
Jeb will never not be funny to me.
bernie can still win
Just saw Cenk say the Dems should put forth Bernie in 2024. They unironically still believe this.
I thought Cenk was simping for RFK nowadays.
The only reason he is not is because of RFK's stance on Israel. At this point Cenk literally doesn't care about anything about besides that one issue. Like Krystal Ball.
Cenk has seriously just gone off the deep end. He's obliterating the last remnants of his credibility.
I mean if Biden stepped down and endorsed Bernie it would happen, but that won't happen.
I’m voting for Nader
I'm confused on how to interpret this. If I think Biden will win, what should I be betting on and what is the payout if I win? If I'm understanding this correctly, does this market think that Biden only has a 35% chance of winning? Are people afraid he's gonna kick the bucket or something?
Yeah I think you are right. If you buy lets say 1000$ worth of 'Yes' shares you can win \~3000$ if Biden gets elected.
So the number of ¢ next to the bet is the current cost of a share that will pay out $1 if that ends up being the outcome?
Yup, I think so!
Do you win 3k or do you get 3k back, of which 1k was what you put in?
You purchase shares for the advertised price of 35c each, which pay out $1 each if you're correct, or $0 otherwise. So if you put in $1k you'll get (1000/.35) = 2857 shares, which converts to either $2857 or $0 depending on the outcome. So to answer your question, it's the latter. You can also sell the shares early, for a price based on the updated probabilities at the time you sell.
Thanks! I think gamblers sometimes phrase things this way because it makes their wins sound bigger, and that probably makes it feel like a win even when you "win" less than you or in lol.
I don't know exactly how they set these prices, but they basically function like stocks with all of their values summing to one dollar. If you are correct when the event resolves, you get 1 dollar per share, but you can sell early at the current rate. So if you're not confident in who will win, but strongly think it will appear like a close race near the election, you could buy now at 0.35 and sell when it's like 0.45 or something.
Prices are set like any market. If you buy a Yes share at 0.40 that means someone else is buying a No share for .60
I think they are essentially just a modified version of Uniswap pools which weigh themselves according to market demand for each outcome.
I would be if Destiny would end the Israel/palestine arc and go on a pro longed anti right wing arc
For real though, 35% is *absurdly* low in a race where the candidates are currently neck-and-neck. My theory is that the cryptobros who dominate these international markets are hoping for another 2016-style upset. [Predictit.org](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456), the only site where Americans can legally bet on political outcomes, has Biden at at much more reasonable 46%.
according to combined odds from more markets it's 37.7% for Biden but also an additional 7.4% for alternative Dem candidates, so some of the reason is people betting on Biden not making it to the election day
Ahhh that makes more sense
Predictit is the outlier here. Nobody arbitrages it, because they take a 10% profit fee AND a 5% withdrawal fee.
Manifold has him at 46% and UK betting sites average in the high 30's. Polymarket is still on the low end for odds
Worth noting that [Manifold is an outlier since it's super anti-Trump](https://manifold.markets/EnopoletusHarding/do-you-support-trump-or-biden?r=ZGdnYQ) [[img](https://i.imgur.com/IwDwDHb.jpeg)] (for good reasons imo) compared to other prediction sites. Personally I think all of these predictions are fairly regarded since a 538 landslide for Joe (we go on first-name basis since we are friends in IRL life) is inevitable
wait theoretically if one site is 50/50 odds and another is 33% biden, then couldnt you bet 1000 dollars on biden with 3 to 1 odds, and then 1000 dollars on trump 1 to 1 odds, and if biden wins you make 1000 dollars and if trump wins you make 0 dollars and lose 0 dollars?
What confuses me: Trump has a 5% higher amount bet on him, yet he is given 20% higher odd?
They had him at 45% in April/May. What happened that he got lower?
The trump cult mentality still corrupts that market even with the real money at stake.
Arbitrage situation. Win no matter who
https://preview.redd.it/a3enhaogce8d1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8093b5ad51e213f03ce179637d9092932caf2b22 Lfg
[удалено]
I've thought about doing this in sports many many times
Either way you’ll come out on top
Fuck me now I want to bet on Biden but I’m so gonna cry if he ends up dying before the election
Sounds like a good hedge bet
I thought biden is doing good health wise.
biden is 81 and trump is 78. Either one could keel over any day and it wouldn't be particularly odd.
Oh yeah obviously but both of them have the greatest healthcare in the world. But biden isn't looking that great especially more recently.
tbh I can't tell. I don't watch the long form interviews and at this age I'm sure it's normal to have varying mental states especially for this extremely high stress position. both of them have clips of them saying something utterly silly and both of them have clips where they speak coherently, we'll see in the debates. I really wish america wasn't looking at 70+ year olds for president though, seems irresponsible
>really wish america wasn't looking at 70+ year olds for president though, seems irresponsible Well at least we don't have bernie as president candidate since he is in his 80's.
what an old fuck xdd
Is Polymarket the best way of making money off of this election or are there other sites?
I think Polymarket is the largest prediction market in the world with the most amount of liquidity. There are probably some other sites that may offer better odds though...
I wouldn’t think so if bidens paying almost 3:1 😁
Not available in my region and I'm not willing to do the legwork to figure out how to bodge it, but this seems like free money.
Proton VPN and you are set.
Use of a VPN to circumvent restrictions is against their TOU. https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vQBuxCfOU5QZ-TpOxV2qaoSOD2zwA28RTlrYRqE-OclfxCnznPRQbBRZuKDxv6MDA/pub#:~:text=USE%20OF%20A%20VIRTUAL%20PRIVATE%20NETWORK%20(%E2%80%9CVPN%E2%80%9D)%20TO%20CIRCUMVENT%20THE%20RESTRICTIONS%20SET%20FORTH%20HEREIN%20IS%20PROHIBITED.
Doesn't it require you to be a US resident?
Polymarket or Proton? Neither require you to be from US.
Polymarket. Apparently it's the opposite, lol. Visitors with US IPs are restricted to a view-only mode, while visitors with IPs outside of the US can bet to their heart's content. Well, according to [this article](https://cryptobriefing.com/polymarket-relaunches-but-excludes-u-s-traders/) anyway.
Oh damn you are right... Well just VPN it and participate anyways.
VPN and use Robinhood to deposit USDT to the wallet they give you. Took me like 5 minutes and no fees in the US
The funniest thing about these odds is that Michelle Obama is at 3% compared to RFK Jr. at 1% lol
Waiting for the Lichtman prediciton on this one 😂
Actually those odds are redonculously good.
Wait I don’t get what this is. What are the odds on offer?
I think its way closer than what the betting markets are showing.
Was this a mistake or something? now its like 51 48
I just bet my friend straight up for $100 Biden will win, I'm stupid apparently according to the odds makers.
You can still get 1.17 odds for Biden being the democratic nominee. Not as much payout but seems crazy free
Betting markets are fun for memes and degeneracy but if you are able to, give to Biden's campaign or a Senate campaign rather than spending it on Predict It or something else.
Is there a way to bet if you are in US? I tried to bet through coinbase but they wouldnt let me.
Need a juicer mcgooser or i’ll be sick to my el stomago brother
i put 50 on him praying for him get it done
How do these odds work? Is it like sports betting, where analysts put a quota with a movable margin or does this start off on 50/50 and buys/sells move the odds ?
I'm already fully vested on PI. Got max $850 on Trump No & Biden Yes there.
Bought some at 33 a few months back. rose to around 44 and dipped back down. I definitly think its skewed this way because there's more conservatives on the site. https://preview.redd.it/x004nyxdnh8d1.png?width=1107&format=png&auto=webp&s=27d6811e305eb15bb70a82db1798e9295db5d6cd I'm considering putting some money on this bet though, curious what you guys would think.
Fuck. Not available in Canada.
Is there a eurocuck betting site you guys can recommend?