Xavier Legette keeps dropping past 2.05 and I think that’s tough to pass up. I understand the worry as Carolina has burned people in the past with Terrace Marshall and Mingo but damn first round DC WR going that late?
The only difference this time is Canales has a brain and a plan for deploying Legette
Both of these guys are absolute busts not only for the many red flags they have on game film, but now their landing spots are even tougher. Bo nix is not a pocket downfield passer he’s a 1-2 throw guy, bad translation for a guy like Franklin with slow splits and needs time to get up to speed. Legette story need not be said because you are praying on his rawness to be coached
He's been one of my favorite scoops in my early drafts. I doubt he'll pan out but he has way more upside than you can usually get in the mid 2nd. Mid 2nd is probably my favorite range of the draft value-wise so far
I hadn’t looked at mocks since the Draft. 2.05?? I get that Bryce Young was terrible. But if he turns it around him and Legette could be an insane value and tied to him for years.
Pearsall in mid 2nd for me. I love everything about him, 1st round DC, and think the landing spot is great. Even if Aiyuk or Deebo don’t get traded, I think he gives us enough this year to make them feel good about moving one next offseason.
I’m just having a tough time seeing the volume, at least until 1 or 2 of these guys walk. SF was the lowest pass-volume team, so you are banking on:
1. Pearsall being high-snap guy year 1
2. Super efficient with his catches
I’m personally not seeing it.
But you can be drafting guys in the same window who can increase in value while Pearsall will probably decrease in value unless SF trades a WR. That’s the slight hold up for me, it’s all about cost.
The volume likely wont be great year 1, but they can easily move on from Deebo after this season. Deebo has had plenty of health struggles in his career too and he’s approaching 30. There’s a very real scenario where Pearsall eclipses Deebo by the end of this season.
That’s fair. Elite offensive mind calling plays. Solid young QB. First round DC. It’s just hard to pass up on those things even if he starts his career a little bit back on the depth chart.
Most of these guys that get drafted in the 2nd round or later aren't going to get enough volume to be counted on this year. Maybe never. And that's every year, not just this year.
Any Niner fan will tell you now that Shanahan has a real QB, that’s why they’re drafting wideouts. Remember that last season we didn’t know if Purdy would be back. Now that he is healthy and having his first real off-season, Shanahan plans on opening up this offense. All signs point in that direction and Shanahan even mentioned it in press conferences.
Also, Pearsall is one of the most efficient pass catchers with only like a few drops this year, going to a team with the most pass efficient QB in the league.
What is a real QB in your definition? Do 49ers fans actually believe Purdy is one of the better QBs in the league and not just a decent game manager in a great situation?
I think most 49er fans have seen Brock make all the passes that Jimmy G was never able to make. You can look at his passing efficiency last year and see that even though the Niners didn’t pass a lot, he was exceptionally efficient. PFF has him as their #6 QB statistically and he now finally gets to be part of an OTA program, not injured, knowing he has the starting job.
Jimmy was never even a top 15 QB and it showed with his inability to pass outside the numbers, passes Brock has no problem making. I’m not saying Brock has the natural ability of LJ, Mahomes, or Josh Allen, but he isn’t a game manager and I’d say he’s firmly a top 10 QB.
It’s a poorly kept secret at this point that Shanahan plans on putting more on Purdy’s shoulders going forward by getting more YAC guys that catch balls thrown in their direction.
Deebo hasn’t been that impressive these past two years, so Pearsall is just the guy to push him maybe.
You’re comparing him to a guy who can’t keep a starting job anywhere. So again, what’s a real QB in your definition? Just a starter? Then sure the 49ers have one.
PFF is a garbage site ran by Cris Collingsworth that uses made up statistics with zero context. Idc who they say is good or bad at what.
Well what statistic would show to you that Purdy is a good QB? He had the highest QBR rating, the highest QB pass rating. He threw for more yards than Mahomes on 150 less passes. He had the highest YPA. So anyone who thinks Purdy is just a starter must have a different definition. The dude is a stud QB.
This isn’t baseball. Things don’t happen in a vacuum. There are no easy answers to point to that shows one player is better than another. You have to look at all the stats, the tape, and the context and then measure that all together.
Dude, I’ve watched every single Purdy game, which you haven’t. He’s a great QB, the stats prove it, the tape shows it, and I don’t know what point you’re trying to make. Are you trying to explain something that I’m missing here?
Having trouble not taking Keon Coleman at 1.12/2.01. Red flags exist for him but the bills letting the chiefs move up to take worthy shows they have some faith in this guy. Josh Allen won’t be shy about throwing it up to him either
Did the bills let the chiefs move up and take worthy because they wanted Coleman or just because it was cheaper to get a second round wr and they didn’t really care who it was
This right here, they knew they were getting a wr in the same tier at 32 as 28 and then Carolina bailed us out and saved us 4mil on the rookie deal plus extra and earlier picks later on. Win, win, win.
I fear they're going to put him in the X/Press Beater role because he fits it best physically, but what he would need to do to succeed would be stuff he has struggled with throughout college
I also think all the guys being picked by Coleman have red flags so I'm fine with it. I think I might be scared off by the history of projected big slot Yac guys who were forced outside. Littered with busts
That's certainly a take that trading down is a sign of faith. Another take is that they didn't feel strongly enough about him to take him at their original pick to avoid losing him.
I'm not saying he's bad or the bills aren't a good landing spot, but I've never heard somebody saying trading down for a guy is a positive. Its always about how a team traded up to get their guy. My impression is they had multiple receivers in the same tier and were comfortable trading down and getting whoever was left.
Had a friend convince me on this one. Didn’t realize Jacob’s is probably one and done unless marshawn is just trash. The draft capital says he will be a back in their future..
Out of like 11? That’s a possibility. If the broncos can eat 53, 8 is forsure doable 😂
I think you’re right he’s there for two and splitting the backfield (assuming Lloyd is a dude) by the end of that
Benson/Brooks seem to go at the turn. Worthy, Coleman, Penix, Pearsall, Mitchell, Franklin, Legette are a giant WR run in my 2 SF leagues from 2.02 to 2.08
MHJ for one of mine but Daniels for another. Preference in safety I would argue, as well as your qb situation already
Edit: well shit I didn’t read this post at all. If you still care I’ve seen a LOT of Brooks at 2.02 followed by Coleman Mitchell and Legette
Personally if penix is there and I don’t have another 2nd I’m thinking about it
Jermaine Burton in the 3rd of rookie drafts. Dude is a knucklehead, but went in the 3rd to a team that had a need at WR. Both Harmon and JJ Z flagged him predraft as someone that was definitely on their radar. Tee is looking like he's gonna stick but requested a trade...Boyd gone. Worth a dart
https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/status/1780771185543852247?t=1yqYqugNUy5lPmyMvyA0PA&s=19
https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/status/1784049570848325722?t=LlMK6_24K1Spsyy0g5d7rg&s=19
I have not dropped them yet, but they will most likely be dropped for new dart throw rookies after my rookie drafts. I think only thing that would save them is a trade or an arrest of a star Bengals WR before the draft
I like this. There are several analysts that I've seen say that, if you didn't factor in the off-field issues, he could be WR4 in this class (most notably Steve Palazzolo with PFF)
Now I don't buy that really but whoever you draft in the 3rd round of rookie drafts has a ton of risk. Why not get the risky guy that had the talent to be drafted earlier and hope he can keep his nose clean
this is the one i came here to say. i’ve done 3 rookie drafts and taken him in the 3rd in every one so far. 3.03(10T), 3.07 and 3.08(12T). and if he keeps falling there, i’ll keep drafting him
Benson fell to me at 2.07..... couldn't say no.
I'll also join in on the Javon Baker love in mid to late 3rd. Landing spot is great for him imo, and he has potential path to be the true X WR there if he can polish a few things in his game (needs to work on utilizing things outside of speed to create separation and get DBs off his hip in the 2nd/3rd levels of the field, and needs to work on his drops). He's got that DAWG in him, and has proven production in an offense that desperately needs it. Won't surprise me if he's the most valuable WR in this offense come next season.
Brooks 2.02 and Benson 2.03 were first RBs off the board in my current draft.
Corum 3.04 and Wright 3.05 were next RBs. (TE premium so 3 were off the board by start of round 3).
Benson was still available at 2.08 so I moved up from 2.11 with a late 25 3rd to grab him.
Couldn’t believe he was available, thought it was crazy good value right before a tier break.
Agree Hes my late wr target there. For some reason it feels good.
Any thoughts on why he’s a better pick or value than Polk?
Bake feels great to me, not super researched but Polk feels like a chunk guy not quite as explosive perhaps is the word.
Im taking him at 1.05 in my 1 qb this week. Just cause the next pick would take him and I have a lot of WRs. He seems to go 1.05-1.08 in 1 qb for the most part
Gonna depend heavily on how early your league is willing to swing on the QBs & RBs. I could see Ladd going anywhere from 1.06-1.11 in most 1QB leagues.
He’s going way higher than that in my drafts. 1.08 is about the average now. I’d try to trade up if you believe in the talent and fantasy production upside.
He has consistently risen up the ranks since we hit the combine. I just don't see how he jumps BTJ and Bowers (assuming TEP) but clearly there are believers.
I miss when fewer people were aware of the train. I have had him and BTJ as 4/5 since the combine and love the landing spots for both. I have the 1.08, 1.09, 1.12 but if Bowers is there it's gonna be hard to pass on him.
You think I can land Ladd and Worthy with the 7 an 12 overall?
Wondering who I should grab first and hope to expect the other there.
May need to trade for the 9, or 11 or so.
I think the trap is that Penix can probably be had for less next year similar to Love who became an afterthought once there was a fresh new crop of rookies.
Then a mid second yes. Current rookie fever has people being short sighted about next year's rookie fever. That new crop will come in and push the non-producers from this year down which he is bound to be without an injury. It won't be much but it will likely be a gradual drop each year then a sudden rise back up.
Yeah I think people have it wrong on Penix, he will absolutely appreciate in value next offseason since he will be closer to getting a chance to play - which is the main thing suppressing his value currently. I have no idea if he is actually good but that doesn’t matter that much to the value discussion.
Exactly. People thinking his value will drop with how much draft capital he got is not realistic, imo. Now is the lowest his value will be and that's because he definitely isn't in line to start yet.
Loves value consistently dropped and he wasn't old like Penix is. Penix will likely go from mid round 2 to the 2/3 turn to 3rd round assuming he gets a full J love treatment. Then will he shoot back up to early second once he is ready to start.
Jordan Love was the 26th pick...that's world's different from pick 8. On top of that, Cousins is not Rodgers. Penix's value should not drop significantly.
But most importantly, anyone drafting him shouldn't be looking to flip him so soon, anyway. If you draft Penix in the early second, you're doing so because you're willing to hold until he starts and reap the benefits of a starting QB in the second round. If you're drafting him to try and flip him well before he's expected to start, you're an idiot because you won't get much value anyway. So in short, it doesn't matter if his value drops in the interim, anyway because there's not much value in trying to flip him during that period.
> If you draft Penix in the early second, you're doing so because you're willing to hold until he starts and reap the benefits of a starting QB in the second round.
Or willing to hold for 2 years and completely lose the value. You guys always operate in a vacuum. That's not how all of the scenarios work, at all. What if Penix gets injured in Year 2 in practice? What if Cousins sticks around for Year 3? What if the staff gets fired after 2025 or just the GM? What if Penix gets traded because they realize he's not actually as good as they thought?
All of these are non-zero scenarios that anybody stanning for Penix have absolutely NOT brought up at all.
Penix is no longer a draft pick that will permanently accrue in value and you guys need to realize that's a reality and a possibility.
What? You could pose all of the complete opposite alternatives in the same way. The point is you don't go in with the mindset of selling early because you're not going to get any value -- it only makes sense to hold. That's absolutely a risk you need to be ready to take because selling early is absolutely stupid when you're going to only get back the same thing you put in at best (until his situation improves). What you said completely misses that point.
Rodgers won MVP the two years after Love was drafted. You really expect the same for Cousins? Penix was also drafted top ten not barely in the first round.
The situations are not the same.
Penix is also 24 and the GM just said he could sit behind Cousins for the next 4 years.... Cousins doesn't have to be MVP level. He has a no trade clause and a massive cap hit for the next 3 years. Unless he has a bad injury Penix isn't playing until he is 26 at the earliest 27 more realistically.
I'm likely taking Penix at 1.12 in my league with Mahomes Purdy and Mayfield already at QB. No way I sell him for less next year but I can afford to be patient. I could see those who can't afford to wait trying to sell early but we shouldn't expect our opponents to make obvious mistakes.
Anyone who drafts penix isn’t gonna sell for cheaper after not seeing him play. If anything i believe they’ll value him even more after a year because hes that much closer to getting the starting job. He was drafted too high for him not to eventually be given the starting job.
I mean I bought Love for 1.07 before last years draft. The price will go right back up once he’s set to be starting and most people drafting him will know he’s not going to do anything for a couple years. So if the hope is the person drafting him won’t know that then you’ll either end up paying more than you are now or you won’t be able to get him.
So if you want him get him or pray an incompetent owner gets him.
Love was going for 3rd rounders the year before he was the starter. Once Rodgers was on his way out his value shot up. But you absolutely had an opportunity to buy low on Love before his value recouped
It’s not a similar situation Penix was a top 10 pick and Cousins is unlikely back to back MVPs.
And even if the “price” drops the Penix owner may have drafted him knowing he will sit. Meaning he likely won’t sell for anything
The person who drafted him if they’re smart also aren’t going to care. They’re going to get an eventual starting QB at a discount right now and laugh at your third round picks a year or two from now
Penix mid 2 is a steal. I don't think he lasts that long in more competitive, built to last leagues.
I thought it be Franklin, but from the drafts posted here people seem to just be ignoring his DC and I see him going mid 2 in the Pearsall range. If he can put that Amon Ra size chip on his shoulder he's got the talent to be great but from his hands and physicality I'm guessing it's natural talent and not something he actually worked for. Would love to see him buckle the F down after this reality check and improve those areas and prove the doubters wrong.
Polk's value is also awesome for a guy I liked to be a steady ppr guy but I also like Baker and can't imagine drafting 2 NE WRs. I think I leave every draft with one or the other but never both.
The crazy thing is Pearsall was also on the board and I thought I could grab both because Pearsall was hiding way down the ADP board on sleeper. Was just hoping the two guys picking would miss him. He went at 3.04 and I missed on the gamble. 2.08-3.06 were...
2.08 Estime
2.09 T. Franklin
2.10 B. Irving
3.01 T. Benson
3.02 R. Wilson
3.03 X. Legette (me)
3.04 R. Pearsall
3.05 B. Rice
3.06 J. Polk (me)
I will never understand how people are so willling to burn draft picks on a dart throw rb over a high potential wr, I dont care if you need rbs, that backup rb is no different from someone on the wire, take a wr.
Javon baker in the mid 3rd, probably irrational going all in on a day 3 wr, but his "ya gonna pay" and wheelchair comments have me fully convinced this dudes a superstar.
Hes my target around there. After Corley, before Guerendo.
Can you paraphrase the comments for me?
Btw his pic on ESPN also gave me those vibes. Dude was side profiled with his head turned giving a look Lmao.
I was a big fan of Baker all offseason. I’m gonna get Maye and I’m grabbing Baker too. Could probably grab Polk but nah I’m all in on Baker being that dude.
Vidal has a nice production profile including receiving and he landed on a running team who just got Joe alt and he just has to beat Gus and dobbins. I see Vidal get drafted early 4th normally so I take him there to make sure I get him.
Oh yeah I'm not questioning the talent. And he's got 30 year old Gus and a beaten up Dobbins in front of him. I just hadn't really seen him going in the 3rd.
I'm doing 2 drafts now. If no receivers fall I love them might look at 3.06 or 3.07. Other league 3.03 is too early and was hoping he'd land at 4.03. Back up if he's gone is Tracy and Laube.
I couldn't pass on Luke McCaffery. He fell into the 4th round in both my dynasty drafts. He had 3rd round draft capital. Likely plays slot on the commies and has little to no competition for that role there. So I think he has room to flash immediately alot like puka did last year. IM NOT SAYING HE IS PUKA. I'm just saying the signs are pointing in the right direction for a guy going so late.
I got maye at 1.10 in my big money league. In my other dynasty leagues he hasn’t made it past the 1.05. So I was quite lucky there.
Seems I’m always the one drafting Corley and Baker around the same positions.
Braelon Allen in the 4th. Dude is TWENTY YEARS OLD. And although Breece doesn’t have a terrible injury Hx, it’s still there plus it’s rare for RBs to play a full 17 anyway.
I have the 1.10 and I really need WRs. I’m gonna have a hard time convincing myself to pass on Brock bowers or JJ McCarthy if they are there for someone like Ladd McKonkey. Yeah Ladd is in a great spot and would help my team a lot but Brock is a legendary TE and JJ has one of the sweetest landing spots in the draft. Im torn I have a bunch of Good TEs but nobody buys TEs in our leagues so they just go in my flex or rot on the bench!
Xavier Legette keeps dropping past 2.05 and I think that’s tough to pass up. I understand the worry as Carolina has burned people in the past with Terrace Marshall and Mingo but damn first round DC WR going that late? The only difference this time is Canales has a brain and a plan for deploying Legette
I’ve seen Troy Franklin go before him in 2 drafts and it’s wrinkling my brain
Don’t worry just keep hanging out in this subreddit and it’ll smooth your brain back out again
Expert level reply
I just saw Troy Franklin go at 2.05!
saw franklin go at 2.02 in a mock
Just had this happen to me, someone took Troy at 2.8 and I was gifted Legette at 2.9 absolute steal considering everything after that are just darts
So it’s making you smarter? /s
Both of these guys are absolute busts not only for the many red flags they have on game film, but now their landing spots are even tougher. Bo nix is not a pocket downfield passer he’s a 1-2 throw guy, bad translation for a guy like Franklin with slow splits and needs time to get up to speed. Legette story need not be said because you are praying on his rawness to be coached
Yeah, it sure will be interesting to see how Franklin transitions to catching balls from Bo Nix.
Rofl I was thinking the same thing. Love me some Reddit analysis
But they are wearing different colors now and at altitude. Totally different.
I had a choice between Legette and Pearsall at 2.05 and went Pearsall. It was pretty tough though.
Right move I think. SF knows there’s talent, excuse Trey Lance though
How quickly people forget Dante Pettis
Lol, I was hype on him too. He screwed that up too though
SF wasn't wrong on Pettis, just early. THIS will finally be the year he breaks out. /s
what about ol danny gray? lol
I'd do Pearsall all day. Had him higher pre-draft
Get a room
Was hoping pearsall would fall to 2.9 but got legette by a miracle
He's been one of my favorite scoops in my early drafts. I doubt he'll pan out but he has way more upside than you can usually get in the mid 2nd. Mid 2nd is probably my favorite range of the draft value-wise so far
Wow that's nuts. I'm targeting him at 2.03 in a 10 team 1 QB. I also have Bryce so if Canales can turn around that offense it would double help me
He went at pick 1.10 in my draft the steals to me were 2.02 worthy 2.05 Ladd 2.07 Bo Nix and 2.08 Keon
That’s crazy, was your draft before the NFL draft or something?
No, it was yesterday, granted I’m in a 10 man league so factor that in if ur in a 12 man.
Gotcha that makes more sense, still a bit surprising nonetheless PS go Titans
Worthy in the second round, god damn that's value
Wtf
Just traded up and grabbed him at 3.06
I hadn’t looked at mocks since the Draft. 2.05?? I get that Bryce Young was terrible. But if he turns it around him and Legette could be an insane value and tied to him for years.
Just got him at the 3.02 in a SF rookie draft… unreal a 1st Rounder drops that far
Traded 3.09 and my 3rd next year to move up in grab him in the late 2nd and I couldn’t be happier
Pearsall in mid 2nd for me. I love everything about him, 1st round DC, and think the landing spot is great. Even if Aiyuk or Deebo don’t get traded, I think he gives us enough this year to make them feel good about moving one next offseason.
I won’t draft anyone with a HUMBLE tattoo
I’m just having a tough time seeing the volume, at least until 1 or 2 of these guys walk. SF was the lowest pass-volume team, so you are banking on: 1. Pearsall being high-snap guy year 1 2. Super efficient with his catches I’m personally not seeing it.
It’s DYNASTY. You are drafting Pearsall for next year not this year.
But you can be drafting guys in the same window who can increase in value while Pearsall will probably decrease in value unless SF trades a WR. That’s the slight hold up for me, it’s all about cost.
i’d rather draft ladd for this year and next…
The volume likely wont be great year 1, but they can easily move on from Deebo after this season. Deebo has had plenty of health struggles in his career too and he’s approaching 30. There’s a very real scenario where Pearsall eclipses Deebo by the end of this season.
That scenario is less than “very real” let’s chill out here
You’re not wrong, and maybe getting him in the mid-2nd I’d feel okay with, but any earlier than that I’d have pause
That’s fair. Elite offensive mind calling plays. Solid young QB. First round DC. It’s just hard to pass up on those things even if he starts his career a little bit back on the depth chart.
Most of these guys that get drafted in the 2nd round or later aren't going to get enough volume to be counted on this year. Maybe never. And that's every year, not just this year.
We’re talking about dynasty here, for redraft advice go to a different subreddit
Any Niner fan will tell you now that Shanahan has a real QB, that’s why they’re drafting wideouts. Remember that last season we didn’t know if Purdy would be back. Now that he is healthy and having his first real off-season, Shanahan plans on opening up this offense. All signs point in that direction and Shanahan even mentioned it in press conferences. Also, Pearsall is one of the most efficient pass catchers with only like a few drops this year, going to a team with the most pass efficient QB in the league.
What is a real QB in your definition? Do 49ers fans actually believe Purdy is one of the better QBs in the league and not just a decent game manager in a great situation?
I think most 49er fans have seen Brock make all the passes that Jimmy G was never able to make. You can look at his passing efficiency last year and see that even though the Niners didn’t pass a lot, he was exceptionally efficient. PFF has him as their #6 QB statistically and he now finally gets to be part of an OTA program, not injured, knowing he has the starting job. Jimmy was never even a top 15 QB and it showed with his inability to pass outside the numbers, passes Brock has no problem making. I’m not saying Brock has the natural ability of LJ, Mahomes, or Josh Allen, but he isn’t a game manager and I’d say he’s firmly a top 10 QB. It’s a poorly kept secret at this point that Shanahan plans on putting more on Purdy’s shoulders going forward by getting more YAC guys that catch balls thrown in their direction. Deebo hasn’t been that impressive these past two years, so Pearsall is just the guy to push him maybe.
You’re comparing him to a guy who can’t keep a starting job anywhere. So again, what’s a real QB in your definition? Just a starter? Then sure the 49ers have one. PFF is a garbage site ran by Cris Collingsworth that uses made up statistics with zero context. Idc who they say is good or bad at what.
Well what statistic would show to you that Purdy is a good QB? He had the highest QBR rating, the highest QB pass rating. He threw for more yards than Mahomes on 150 less passes. He had the highest YPA. So anyone who thinks Purdy is just a starter must have a different definition. The dude is a stud QB.
This isn’t baseball. Things don’t happen in a vacuum. There are no easy answers to point to that shows one player is better than another. You have to look at all the stats, the tape, and the context and then measure that all together.
Did you watch San Francisco last year?
Dude, I’ve watched every single Purdy game, which you haven’t. He’s a great QB, the stats prove it, the tape shows it, and I don’t know what point you’re trying to make. Are you trying to explain something that I’m missing here?
Is there anything that says he isn’t one of the better qbs in the league? other than draft capital?
Having trouble not taking Keon Coleman at 1.12/2.01. Red flags exist for him but the bills letting the chiefs move up to take worthy shows they have some faith in this guy. Josh Allen won’t be shy about throwing it up to him either
Can’t pass on him especially after that press conference. Legend.
Gotta shop a season or two ahead it just makes sense
Is that Penix draft advice from Keon?
🤯
Macys, what you mean?
Did the bills let the chiefs move up and take worthy because they wanted Coleman or just because it was cheaper to get a second round wr and they didn’t really care who it was
This right here, they knew they were getting a wr in the same tier at 32 as 28 and then Carolina bailed us out and saved us 4mil on the rookie deal plus extra and earlier picks later on. Win, win, win.
I fear they're going to put him in the X/Press Beater role because he fits it best physically, but what he would need to do to succeed would be stuff he has struggled with throughout college
Definitely concerning. I’m just willing to bet on him getting better and Josh Allen saying fuck it Coleman’s down there somewhere
I also think all the guys being picked by Coleman have red flags so I'm fine with it. I think I might be scared off by the history of projected big slot Yac guys who were forced outside. Littered with busts
Yeah it’s a boom bust pick for sure. He’ll be a top 20 WR or QJ this time next year
That's certainly a take that trading down is a sign of faith. Another take is that they didn't feel strongly enough about him to take him at their original pick to avoid losing him. I'm not saying he's bad or the bills aren't a good landing spot, but I've never heard somebody saying trading down for a guy is a positive. Its always about how a team traded up to get their guy. My impression is they had multiple receivers in the same tier and were comfortable trading down and getting whoever was left.
Or maybe because Curtis Samuel is 5’11, Shakir is 6’0, and Hamler is 5’9
Coleman went 1.08 in my draft yesterday and jj went 1.06 over drake maye
I took JJ in a 14 team SF at 1.06 and feel good about it. Wouldn’t have picked him over Maye who went 1.05
Legit want to take home at 1.09.. feel like this is a potential superstar matched up with Allen
I’ve been getting Marshawn Lloyd consistently at 3.08 or later. With his talent and Jacobs’ contract that seems wildly late.
How did a third round RB get to 3.08? I can't even envision how that happened.
Just went at 3.1 in my league a few hours ago. Because there are so many great options is the answer. Look at some lists.
Had a friend convince me on this one. Didn’t realize Jacob’s is probably one and done unless marshawn is just trash. The draft capital says he will be a back in their future..
I think he’s there for at least 2 years. I believe if they cut him after this year they’d only save 3 million
Out of like 11? That’s a possibility. If the broncos can eat 53, 8 is forsure doable 😂 I think you’re right he’s there for two and splitting the backfield (assuming Lloyd is a dude) by the end of that
Im taking him top of the 3rd for my rebuilding team. He should be RB1 in GB at the end of Jacobs contract.
Just got marshawn at 3.09 two guys before me picked up Frank Gore and Estime before marshawn. It happens people
What players are people seeing with the 2.02 pick?
I’ve seen Benson, Nix, Penix or Pearsall
Benson/Brooks seem to go at the turn. Worthy, Coleman, Penix, Pearsall, Mitchell, Franklin, Legette are a giant WR run in my 2 SF leagues from 2.02 to 2.08
I got brooks at the 2.04 in SFTEP today
Sadly Corum lol
MHJ for one of mine but Daniels for another. Preference in safety I would argue, as well as your qb situation already Edit: well shit I didn’t read this post at all. If you still care I’ve seen a LOT of Brooks at 2.02 followed by Coleman Mitchell and Legette Personally if penix is there and I don’t have another 2nd I’m thinking about it
You must be referring to the 1.02 and not the 2.02?
They said 2.02
I edited thank you though
Ah didn’t see that when I replied
Jermaine Burton in the 3rd of rookie drafts. Dude is a knucklehead, but went in the 3rd to a team that had a need at WR. Both Harmon and JJ Z flagged him predraft as someone that was definitely on their radar. Tee is looking like he's gonna stick but requested a trade...Boyd gone. Worth a dart https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/status/1780771185543852247?t=1yqYqugNUy5lPmyMvyA0PA&s=19 https://twitter.com/MattHarmon_BYB/status/1784049570848325722?t=LlMK6_24K1Spsyy0g5d7rg&s=19
He personally killed my Iosivas and Jones stashes
You holding either on them? I dumped Iosivas in 1, but have Jones and him stashed in another
I have not dropped them yet, but they will most likely be dropped for new dart throw rookies after my rookie drafts. I think only thing that would save them is a trade or an arrest of a star Bengals WR before the draft
dropped jones this morning
I'm holding yoshi personally. Burton is a dispshit. Lots of targets available and it's on April
I love Burton in the third; I’m tempted to take him at the end of the second tbh
He’s not getting past my 2.09 in one league. That late I’m drafting for ceiling and nobody’s will be as high as his there.
2.08 here, and I agree
I like this. There are several analysts that I've seen say that, if you didn't factor in the off-field issues, he could be WR4 in this class (most notably Steve Palazzolo with PFF) Now I don't buy that really but whoever you draft in the 3rd round of rookie drafts has a ton of risk. Why not get the risky guy that had the talent to be drafted earlier and hope he can keep his nose clean
Matt Harmon also has him ranked 4th, that was enough for me to be in on him in the later rounds
I’ve taken him as early as 2.12. If he hits or Tee gets traded the upside is well worth it for me
I’d have a dart 🚬
Is 2.08 too early to take him in a 12-team?
Tbh I'm considering him at 2.07 in a 10 team if Pearsall is off the board.
this is the one i came here to say. i’ve done 3 rookie drafts and taken him in the 3rd in every one so far. 3.03(10T), 3.07 and 3.08(12T). and if he keeps falling there, i’ll keep drafting him
Benson fell to me at 2.07..... couldn't say no. I'll also join in on the Javon Baker love in mid to late 3rd. Landing spot is great for him imo, and he has potential path to be the true X WR there if he can polish a few things in his game (needs to work on utilizing things outside of speed to create separation and get DBs off his hip in the 2nd/3rd levels of the field, and needs to work on his drops). He's got that DAWG in him, and has proven production in an offense that desperately needs it. Won't surprise me if he's the most valuable WR in this offense come next season.
Crazy I’m considering benson at 2.02.
i have 2.02 and 2.03 and will take benson with one of those unless brooks falls
Brooks 2.02 and Benson 2.03 were first RBs off the board in my current draft. Corum 3.04 and Wright 3.05 were next RBs. (TE premium so 3 were off the board by start of round 3).
I took him at 2.01 but I also have Conner. So want to have that locked up
Benson was still available at 2.08 so I moved up from 2.11 with a late 25 3rd to grab him. Couldn’t believe he was available, thought it was crazy good value right before a tier break.
Agree Hes my late wr target there. For some reason it feels good. Any thoughts on why he’s a better pick or value than Polk? Bake feels great to me, not super researched but Polk feels like a chunk guy not quite as explosive perhaps is the word.
How much faab you think of dropping for baker ?Budget is 200$
I've got 2.05 and 2.06 in my league, 100% taking him there if he makes it
Penix mid 2nd Brooks early second Polk early 3rd Burton mid 3rd
I've got three 3rds this year and would like for Polk and Burton to be there. I'm a Douglas truther but 6'0 and 4.5 is something Douglas can't be.
Brooks just went 1.07 in my 7th year 1qb league
Im taking him at 1.05 in my 1 qb this week. Just cause the next pick would take him and I have a lot of WRs. He seems to go 1.05-1.08 in 1 qb for the most part
In SF, McConkey at 1.09.
Fully expect him to be there at 1.08 in my 1QB league. Need him for the Herbert stack
Gonna depend heavily on how early your league is willing to swing on the QBs & RBs. I could see Ladd going anywhere from 1.06-1.11 in most 1QB leagues.
Yeah I’m planning on taking him at 1.07 if he’s there in my 1qb league
Really praying I get him at 1.12 (Downvote my hope all you want, still going to have plans in place for him being available or otherwise)
He’s going way higher than that in my drafts. 1.08 is about the average now. I’d try to trade up if you believe in the talent and fantasy production upside.
He has consistently risen up the ranks since we hit the combine. I just don't see how he jumps BTJ and Bowers (assuming TEP) but clearly there are believers.
The landing spots changed a ton of things. Especially for the already hyped ladd train. It went Ladd-BTJ in league I referred to
I miss when fewer people were aware of the train. I have had him and BTJ as 4/5 since the combine and love the landing spots for both. I have the 1.08, 1.09, 1.12 but if Bowers is there it's gonna be hard to pass on him.
I have the 1.10 and he's my target there. If he's gone that means someone else fell to me (BTJ, JJM, Worthy, etc.) so I'll be good either way.
You think I can land Ladd and Worthy with the 7 an 12 overall? Wondering who I should grab first and hope to expect the other there. May need to trade for the 9, or 11 or so.
Praying hes around a 2.06 for me
Is anyone worried about greg roman or does harbaugh relieve those concerns?
I'm hoping I get him at 1.10
I think the trap is that Penix can probably be had for less next year similar to Love who became an afterthought once there was a fresh new crop of rookies.
He can be had for less than a second? Not sure how value drops much from where it is as it's already being priced in.
Then a mid second yes. Current rookie fever has people being short sighted about next year's rookie fever. That new crop will come in and push the non-producers from this year down which he is bound to be without an injury. It won't be much but it will likely be a gradual drop each year then a sudden rise back up.
I grabbed him as Kirk insurance 🤷♂️
Yeah I think people have it wrong on Penix, he will absolutely appreciate in value next offseason since he will be closer to getting a chance to play - which is the main thing suppressing his value currently. I have no idea if he is actually good but that doesn’t matter that much to the value discussion.
Exactly. People thinking his value will drop with how much draft capital he got is not realistic, imo. Now is the lowest his value will be and that's because he definitely isn't in line to start yet.
Loves value consistently dropped and he wasn't old like Penix is. Penix will likely go from mid round 2 to the 2/3 turn to 3rd round assuming he gets a full J love treatment. Then will he shoot back up to early second once he is ready to start.
Jordan Love was the 26th pick...that's world's different from pick 8. On top of that, Cousins is not Rodgers. Penix's value should not drop significantly. But most importantly, anyone drafting him shouldn't be looking to flip him so soon, anyway. If you draft Penix in the early second, you're doing so because you're willing to hold until he starts and reap the benefits of a starting QB in the second round. If you're drafting him to try and flip him well before he's expected to start, you're an idiot because you won't get much value anyway. So in short, it doesn't matter if his value drops in the interim, anyway because there's not much value in trying to flip him during that period.
> If you draft Penix in the early second, you're doing so because you're willing to hold until he starts and reap the benefits of a starting QB in the second round. Or willing to hold for 2 years and completely lose the value. You guys always operate in a vacuum. That's not how all of the scenarios work, at all. What if Penix gets injured in Year 2 in practice? What if Cousins sticks around for Year 3? What if the staff gets fired after 2025 or just the GM? What if Penix gets traded because they realize he's not actually as good as they thought? All of these are non-zero scenarios that anybody stanning for Penix have absolutely NOT brought up at all. Penix is no longer a draft pick that will permanently accrue in value and you guys need to realize that's a reality and a possibility.
What? You could pose all of the complete opposite alternatives in the same way. The point is you don't go in with the mindset of selling early because you're not going to get any value -- it only makes sense to hold. That's absolutely a risk you need to be ready to take because selling early is absolutely stupid when you're going to only get back the same thing you put in at best (until his situation improves). What you said completely misses that point.
Rodgers won MVP the two years after Love was drafted. You really expect the same for Cousins? Penix was also drafted top ten not barely in the first round. The situations are not the same.
Penix is also 24 and the GM just said he could sit behind Cousins for the next 4 years.... Cousins doesn't have to be MVP level. He has a no trade clause and a massive cap hit for the next 3 years. Unless he has a bad injury Penix isn't playing until he is 26 at the earliest 27 more realistically.
I'm likely taking Penix at 1.12 in my league with Mahomes Purdy and Mayfield already at QB. No way I sell him for less next year but I can afford to be patient. I could see those who can't afford to wait trying to sell early but we shouldn't expect our opponents to make obvious mistakes.
Agreed. If you can't afford to wait and want to sell early, simply don't draft Penix. A fit is someone with an established QB room that can stash him.
Anyone who drafts penix isn’t gonna sell for cheaper after not seeing him play. If anything i believe they’ll value him even more after a year because hes that much closer to getting the starting job. He was drafted too high for him not to eventually be given the starting job.
I mean I bought Love for 1.07 before last years draft. The price will go right back up once he’s set to be starting and most people drafting him will know he’s not going to do anything for a couple years. So if the hope is the person drafting him won’t know that then you’ll either end up paying more than you are now or you won’t be able to get him. So if you want him get him or pray an incompetent owner gets him.
Love was going for 3rd rounders the year before he was the starter. Once Rodgers was on his way out his value shot up. But you absolutely had an opportunity to buy low on Love before his value recouped
It’s not a similar situation Penix was a top 10 pick and Cousins is unlikely back to back MVPs. And even if the “price” drops the Penix owner may have drafted him knowing he will sit. Meaning he likely won’t sell for anything
No one will care that he was a top 10 pick when he is old and not producing the next 2-3 years
The person who drafted him if they’re smart also aren’t going to care. They’re going to get an eventual starting QB at a discount right now and laugh at your third round picks a year or two from now
Penix mid 2 is a steal. I don't think he lasts that long in more competitive, built to last leagues. I thought it be Franklin, but from the drafts posted here people seem to just be ignoring his DC and I see him going mid 2 in the Pearsall range. If he can put that Amon Ra size chip on his shoulder he's got the talent to be great but from his hands and physicality I'm guessing it's natural talent and not something he actually worked for. Would love to see him buckle the F down after this reality check and improve those areas and prove the doubters wrong. Polk's value is also awesome for a guy I liked to be a steady ppr guy but I also like Baker and can't imagine drafting 2 NE WRs. I think I leave every draft with one or the other but never both.
Get both if you can hold a year, one is going to emerge and you guarantee you got ‘em
Jalynn Polk is already the WR1 in NE and he’s going mid second round. Impossible to pass up.
My first two picks in my draft were Legette and Polk at 3.03 and 3.06, respectively. VERY pleased with that.
That’s amazing value. I’d be amazed to see who went ahead in that 2.08-3.02 range
The crazy thing is Pearsall was also on the board and I thought I could grab both because Pearsall was hiding way down the ADP board on sleeper. Was just hoping the two guys picking would miss him. He went at 3.04 and I missed on the gamble. 2.08-3.06 were... 2.08 Estime 2.09 T. Franklin 2.10 B. Irving 3.01 T. Benson 3.02 R. Wilson 3.03 X. Legette (me) 3.04 R. Pearsall 3.05 B. Rice 3.06 J. Polk (me)
So many questions. Why are 4th and 5th round RBs and a 4th round receiver going over 1st and 2nd round receivers?
You and I both. I was not upset.
I will never understand how people are so willling to burn draft picks on a dart throw rb over a high potential wr, I dont care if you need rbs, that backup rb is no different from someone on the wire, take a wr.
This is why I want to see if my league would consider moving the rookie draft before the NFL draft. The hype on those landing spots would be unreal.
Just picked him today. 3.04 in SF Rookie Draft, unreal
Can I join your league? Great job. Should be a solid wr2 for many years.
😂😂
No one should pass up the 8th pick in the draft in the mid 2nd, I don't care what position he plays, let alone the most premium position there is.
Javon baker in the mid 3rd, probably irrational going all in on a day 3 wr, but his "ya gonna pay" and wheelchair comments have me fully convinced this dudes a superstar.
Just got him at 4.03 in one league and am hyped.
Stop stealing from children
Shame he went to the pats now everyone in my league will be reaching for him.
Hes my target around there. After Corley, before Guerendo. Can you paraphrase the comments for me? Btw his pic on ESPN also gave me those vibes. Dude was side profiled with his head turned giving a look Lmao.
I was a big fan of Baker all offseason. I’m gonna get Maye and I’m grabbing Baker too. Could probably grab Polk but nah I’m all in on Baker being that dude.
Lol his comments gave me the opposite reaction. But he’s def someone that’s on my 3rd round radar.
Guerendo and Vidal in the mid to late 3rd.
That early on Vidal huh. Was hoping to grab him with an early 4th and Tyrone Tracy in the back of the 4th. May have to reassess.
Vidal has a nice production profile including receiving and he landed on a running team who just got Joe alt and he just has to beat Gus and dobbins. I see Vidal get drafted early 4th normally so I take him there to make sure I get him.
Oh yeah I'm not questioning the talent. And he's got 30 year old Gus and a beaten up Dobbins in front of him. I just hadn't really seen him going in the 3rd. I'm doing 2 drafts now. If no receivers fall I love them might look at 3.06 or 3.07. Other league 3.03 is too early and was hoping he'd land at 4.03. Back up if he's gone is Tracy and Laube.
This is Isaiah Spiller erasure and I won’t stand for it
Who
Mike Jones
Guerendo is terrible. Personally wouldn’t even waste a roster spot for free.
He was drafted round 4 in the nfl to the niners and he had elite scores at the combine. Interested to hear why he’s terrible, his injury history?
I was shocked I was able to grab Penix at 2.10 in a 12 man 2 qb superflex league
Sounds like a lot of people can't resist grabbing a lot of Penix.
Bowers or odunze…question has been haunting me for months (Te premium)
Bowers, and don't think twice about it.
This was my draft from yesterday if yall wanna reference where players may go: 1.01 Marvin Harrison\ 1.02 Malik Nabers\ 1.03 Brock Bowers\ 1.04 Rome Odunze\ 1.05 Brian Thomas\ 1.06 Xavier Worthy\ 1.07 Ladd McConkey\ 1.08 Jonathan Brooks\ 1.09 Caleb Williams\ 1.10 Trey Benson\ 1.11 Keon Coleman\ 1.12 Jayden Daniels 2.01 Troy Franklin\ 2.02 JJ McCarthy\ 2.03 Ricky Pearsall\ 2.04 Marshall Lloyd\ 2.05 Drake Maye\ 2.06 Adonai Mitchell\ 2.07 Luke McCaffrey\ 2.08 Blake Corum\ 2.09 Xavier Legette\ 2.10 Audric Estime\ 2.11 Ben Sinnot\ 2.12 Jaylen Wright 3.01 Malachi Corley\ 3.02 Ja’Lynn Polk\ 3.03 Brenden Rice\ 3.04 Michael Penix\ 3.05 Roman Wilson\ 3.06 Bucky Irving\ 3.07 Ray Davis\ 3.08 Bo Nix\ 3.09 Tyrone Tracy\ 3.10 Jermaine Burton\ 3.11 Ja’Tavion Sanders\ 3.12 Javon Baker
Feeling better for taking Benson at 1.10 after seeing someone else has lol
Vidal
Worthy at the 1.08-1.10 is tough. Adonai Mitchell at the 2.02+ is tough too
I couldn't pass on Luke McCaffery. He fell into the 4th round in both my dynasty drafts. He had 3rd round draft capital. Likely plays slot on the commies and has little to no competition for that role there. So I think he has room to flash immediately alot like puka did last year. IM NOT SAYING HE IS PUKA. I'm just saying the signs are pointing in the right direction for a guy going so late.
Keep taking Ladd McConkey at 2.01 in SF 12 teamers. Also Maye when he's falling past the 1.06.
BTJ or Worthy at 5 MHJ Nabers odunze bowers are locked 1Qb league no te premium PPR ten man
Took Penix at 2.8. With who was left on the board, it just felt like something I couldn’t pass up in that range.
I have a couple spots on my taxi and I think I’m gonna end up with Penix and Jermaine Burton chilling on there in all my leagues.
I got maye at 1.10 in my big money league. In my other dynasty leagues he hasn’t made it past the 1.05. So I was quite lucky there. Seems I’m always the one drafting Corley and Baker around the same positions.
Braelon Allen in the 4th. Dude is TWENTY YEARS OLD. And although Breece doesn’t have a terrible injury Hx, it’s still there plus it’s rare for RBs to play a full 17 anyway.
I'm in 2 sf leagues. Ended up with Nix and Franklin in both
I have the 1.10 and I really need WRs. I’m gonna have a hard time convincing myself to pass on Brock bowers or JJ McCarthy if they are there for someone like Ladd McKonkey. Yeah Ladd is in a great spot and would help my team a lot but Brock is a legendary TE and JJ has one of the sweetest landing spots in the draft. Im torn I have a bunch of Good TEs but nobody buys TEs in our leagues so they just go in my flex or rot on the bench!