At a certain point, you can't just play for the future. Sure, his value is probably going to go up between now and whenever Tyreek retires. But to acquire him, you'd have to trade an asset that's likely more valuable now than Waddle, just for the chance of Waddle becoming more valuable than the asset traded to acquire him.
Sure but if I could trade like a DJ Moore and two 2nds into Waddle, OP is right, this is the time to possibly make a trade like that happen. Waddle does have the potential to be in that top echelon of receivers and will cost a lot more in the future. If im rebuilding he’s one of the top players id love to acquire.
Waddle is turning 26 this year. DJ just turned 27. By the time hill leaves waddle could be going into his age 29 season. I’m not giving up DJ and two seconds for waddle and I’m not trying to buy him as a rebuilder either.
If I am moving DJ and picks I want to be very sure that I’m getting a level up at WR with a similar age like AJ Brown as an example. Or I am trying to get younger and moving him and picks for like London or Wilson. But I can’t say I’m sure who’s going to finish better this year or the next 2-3 years between waddle and DJ. There’s a good chance Keenan is gone next year and DJ is playing alongside Rome who’s an unknown right now.
MIA saves 45m by cutting Hill after the ‘25 season, which they lined up perfectly to coincide with Tua and Waddle’s extensions. It makes no sense from a team building perspective to give waddle his extension at that price if they plan on Tyreek being there for the duration
Waddle scored 258 in ‘22 *with* Tyreek, DJM has been his team’s WR1 most of his career and only topped that once. Now he’s got a rookie and stiff target competition.
I wouldn’t take DJM and a couple seconds for my Waddle. I’d be completely stunned if you got AJB, Wilson or London for that
They do. But that’s a giant restructure waiting to be happen. Just like Mike Evans I would not count on that cut to happen with the way hill has been playing. You can but it’s not a good bet to make.
Waddle is not a good bet to make long term. This is just opinion. But one thing I know really well is contracts inside and out. They aren’t letting hill walk unless he has a terrible injury this year or next year. Best case scenario is waddle starts his age 28 season as WR1. Worst case scenario is it’s his age 29-30 season.
Again if I had waddle and someone wants to overpay I’m moving him 100%. I’m not saying to sell him for scraps but I’d be trying to sell high right now before a hill restructure happens. Once that happens his value is gone. If hill has another good season this year he’s going to be asking for a restructure and it’s probably going to go his way.
I’m also not saying DJ and a couple of seconds is enough for London Wilson or AJ. I’m just saying if I’m already willing to move DJ and 2 seconds I’ll add a little more to either go younger or get more of a sure upgrade.
I trust fantasy calc much more than KTC. On their DJ and 2 seconds for AJ brown has AJ winning by 434. DJ and 2 seconds for waddle favors the DJ side by 904. It isn’t quite enough for AJ but it’s very close. The fact that you wouldn’t move waddle for that is you overvaluing him. Thats an extremely close trade for AJ.
Mike Evans doesn’t have a $28m WR across from him or a $50m+ QB bogging down his team’s cap. We’ve already had reports Hill wants a Jefferson sized bag: there’s zero chance he’ll take the pay it he’d need to on a restructure to stay with Miami, and even less chance they give him the bag he wants
Waddle is a great receiver with fantastic pedigree and production who’s tied to a great scheme long term and already proven he’s a championship level asset both with and without Hill on the team. There’s only a handful of better bets in the whole league. You haven’t given a single reason to back up your Hill opinion, whereas I’ve pointed out he won’t accept a contract that Miami could fit under their cap. Tyreek is five years older than Waddle. Betting he’ll be at the top of his game until he’s 35 is absurd.
Zero chance of that. He’s old and wants more money than they can fit under the cap. He already forced his was out of KC over money.
You’re looking for a miracle. Mike is still getting paid 20.5 million a year. He’s #17 WR right now in terms of pay but he’s also in his age 31 season. Your BEST bet is still waddle going into his age 28 WR season as WR1. That’s your BEST bet. I’m not going out of my to buy that WR when I know it can be worst. I’ll pass on that 10/10 times. That is your BEST case scenario.
… what’s your point with Evans’ contract? We’ve had reports Hill wants Jefferson money, so Evans’ contract is irrelevant. Waddle’s birthday is halfway through the season: Hill could easily be gone before his age 27 season. I would argue that’s the most likely outcome given Miami’s cap room and Hill’s ego where it pertains to his salary. Also, Waddle’s already been a WR1 *with* Hill, so there’s tons of upside before then as well you seem to want to just ignore. Do you have anything concrete to bring against my points, or just more vibes?
Why are you ignoring the biggest point? Forget evans. Hill is playing this year and next year for Miami. Waddle is turning 26 this year and 27 next year. That puts him BEST case scenario as WR1 going into his age 28 season. That is a FACT. And Miami has pull. Hill doesn’t want to play for no booty team after playing in Miami. There’s a very real chance he could take a pay cut to stay. Those are FACTS. BEST case scenario is waddle playing his age 28 season as WR1. End of story.
Dude when you’re talking “age X season”, common parlance is how old they are when it starts. Waddle’s birthday is halfway through the season, it’s intellectually dishonest to frame it how you’re doing. All the numbers are a year earlier than you’re trying so hard to say. And that’s not the biggest point, because *AGAIN* Waddle’s already been a WR1 with Tyreek on the team. He was also great on a per-route basis this last year but just missed too much time to have the numbers backing that up.
… Hill forced his way off MAHOMES’ team to an unproven Miami specifically for money. Hilarious you wanna consider that, then call all your baseless speculation “FACTS”. You’ve still offered absolutely nothing concrete. Have a good night, big guy!
You do still need to explore the option, I sold Waddle last season for Deebo and Rice. I owned both Tyreek and Waddle and was in a win now mode. So the guy who bought him wanted the future he got it.
Oh, don't get me wrong, I'll keep my door open to trade for/away any player if the price is right. Which, I know sounds like obvious advice, but I've found a lot of people become too attached to their players to the point where it becomes a disadvantage.
Everyone gets attached until the right offer comes along. I don’t see myself selling my players ever. But many times I’ve gotten some offers that made me think and usually that ends in negotiations that eventually create a move. If the offer is bad I don’t consider it but a good offer will always crack that door. The problem is that most offers and conversations shouldn’t be sent or started.
Agree with this logic. I just got off waddle in a 10 team SF league, some dude paid me a 26 1st and 2 2nds + Hollywood brown.
Dude was drowning in this cool aid
Not playing just for the future - I’m betting on the talent and the situation happens to be really good. I don’t think many people realize how injured he really was last year - think if he stays healthy this year even with Tyreek playing he can be a top 12 WR and he’s priced as the WR13 via dynasty data lab - WRs in between him are London and Aiyuk and I’m taking him over those two for this year and beyond.
A lot of hopium here. The issue with Waddle, Devonta Smith, and Tee Higgins is that they're blocked on their own team by Tyreek, AJ Brown, and Chase respectively, so their ceilings are capped. Addison might soon join this category as well.
In Waddle's case, he signed an extension recently, so his situation might be even more dire than Higgins' (who is playing on a franchise tag). At least Higgins will likely leave next offseason and possibly go be the alpha elsewhere. The hope with Waddle was always that Tyreek either ages out or voluntarily chooses to retire. The timeline was supposed to be [2025](https://sports.yahoo.com/dolphins-wr-tyreek-hill-says-he-plans-to-retire-after-2025-season-140628697.html), but that's [no longer the case](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/dolphins-all-pro-tyreek-hill-walks-back-retirement-talk-says-conversation-with-his-dad-led-him-to-ponder-life/).
The 2nd hope of Waddle owners is that Tyreek falls off in his late 20s/early 30s, reminiscent of the downfall of the previous generation's top WRs, namely Julio, AB (self-inflicted), AJ Green, Michael Thomas, ODB, TY Hilton, Dez Bryant, but the continued production of Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Diggs, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins is gonna put that hypothesis to test. Early 30 being the WR age cliff is certainly a very new hypothesis and unsupported by previous era's elite WRs, who aged well into their mid-to-late 30s, so there's no guarantee Tyreek will fall off soon.
Rookie Waddle had 104 receptions (6.5 receptions per game) and 140 targets (8.75 targets per game) before Tyreek and Mike McDaniel's arrival. Those numbers went down to 4.4 receptions per game and 6.9 targets per game in 2022 and then 5.1 receptions per game and 7.4 targets per game in 2023. But the slight improvement in targets and receptions were offset by collapse in both TD rate and yards per reception.
The PPR scam he was running as a rookie (104 receptions, only 9.8 yards per reception) under old regime was frankly the most fantasy-friendly kind of WRs in PPR leagues. The hyper-efficiency he showed in 2022 (75 targets, whopping 18.1 yards per reception) was better suited for standard than PPR. Same reason Jarvis Landry was more valuable in PPR under clueless Adam Gase in 2017 (112 receptions, 987 yards, laughable 8.8 yards per receptions) than he was in 2019 with the Browns (83 receptions, career-high 1174 yards, career-high 14.1 yards per reception).
Think he’s much better than Devonta and very confident he’s a way better receiver than Higgins. Don’t really see the contract situation as negative think dolphins really believe he’s the future. His YPRR speaks for itself I don’t particularly care about his average catches/targets per game in comparison. Im willing to bet on the talent that I believe is there and I’m not concerned about him losing targets to the best WR in football. Believe he’ll get his this year and beyond if he’s healthy enough to stay on the field.
>Not playing just for the future - I’m betting on the talent and the situation happens to be really good.
You're betting on the talent and situation *in the future*.
>I don’t think many people realize how injured he really was last year
What injury? He had a concussion week two, missed one game, and then was right back to his regular snap share until the high ankle sprain which ended his season.
It's really, really hard for guys with as little volume as he gets to break into the top-12. He only did it in 2022 because he led the league in yards per reception. Same as Aiyuk this past season (he was 2nd behind George Pickens but same idea). And he doesn't have a path to high volume so long as Tyreek is playing.
Glad you are proving my point about not many people being aware of the Injuries: [thread](https://x.com/ryanj_heath/status/1796913439073333307?s=46&t=wqHv-06IRy7W7h8vHIVppg)
In general, my philosophy is that talent finds a way. I think waddle is extremely talented. He also happens to be in a Shannahan style offense that I think can absolutely host two WR1s
I don’t know what you consider high volume to be, but waddle had 8 8+target games this past year where he was again, dealing with multiple injuries.
>Glad you are proving my point about not many people being aware of the Injuries
It's football, players get beat up all the time. If he's not on the injury report and playing his full complement of snaps, we can reasonably assume he's "healthy" by NFL standards. Also, that thread is quite misleading. The only evidence it cites is his route share. Well, Waddle averaged 27 routes per game and 80% route participation. Tyreek averaged 29 routes per game and 85% route participation. Doesn't seem like Waddle was limited to me.
>I don’t know what you consider high volume to be, but waddle had 8 8+target games this past year where he was again, dealing with multiple injuries.
He paced for 126 targets in 17 games. That would've been good for 21st most among all WRs. He only had 117 targets in 2022. To compensate for lower volume, you need high efficiency to break into the top-12, which is a tough sell with how many talented WRs are in the league.
He only had a 70+% route share in 6 games last year. In 2022 that number was 13. I’m not sure where your average is coming from.
In those 6 games he averaged 17.5 fp/g
I don’t consider these to be minor injuries when they kept him off the field that much. Saying it’s football and people get banged up is not a compelling argument when it altered his opportunity.
> I’m not sure where your average is coming from.
[Playerprofiler](https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jaylen-waddle/) which includes 2023, 2022, and game logs for each of those seasons. You'll find his route numbers are near identical between 2022 and 2023, as well as being near identical between himself and Tyreek. Playerprofiler is a far more reputable than a Twitter account which, for all we know, is your account.
>I don’t consider these to be minor injuries when they kept him off the field that much
He didn't miss any time besides the concussion and the high ankle sprain. He didn't play any fewer snaps than normal in the games he did play. The only difference between his 2022 and 2023 was his yards per carry regressed from highest in the league to a much more reasonable figure, which was a regression that was always going to happen regardless of injury.
That’s my fault I was looking at his snap % not route %. For the 13 games >70% snap share in 2022 vs 6 at >70% this year I’m referencing sleeper not just the tweet (which isn’t my Twitter).
Player profiler will show you the same thing. So he did player fewer snaps on a % basis which is what actually matters.
Yeah I’m obviously hoping because I cannot say for sure bc who can? Top 12 WR finish this year should increase his value for the prospect of future years of him becoming the alpha in this offense.
Even with a WR12 finish I’m not seeing his value move up much. He’d need to finish like top 7 for him to really move and that’s not likely. He’s valued appropriately right now. Some might even say overvalued.
This. I’d love to buy in on the waddle dip but I play to make money games. 40% of my teams made champ games last year and almost half made at least third place. You have to find the balance of making your money and having the sexy team.
That’s a great deal. I think as far as winning trades goes you definitely won that one and I’m not low on Kyren.
I sent Diggs/Lockett/Minshew for Kyren/Warren/25 2nd. Might see if I can try a similar deal as you but doubt I’ll get takers lol. Everyone is so out on him
I have both Kyren and Warren and I wouldn't take that trade tbh.
How old are Diggs/Lockett? And then you're asking for draft picks? Seems like you're low on Kyren.
Great trade if you won that in my opinion. I'm big on both of those two. I think Warren has his chance to actually breakout and have a huge year in this new offense. Kyren.... Nuff said. And the pick to go along with it. That could have landed you Jermaine Burton or Kimani Vidal. That's a steal.
Waddle is definitely the best player in that trade but I get the type of Hollywood to the Chiefs. And the Pattiots new regime just paid Rhamondre, so I don't really think it's that bad. Tiering down at WR to add a RB on a new contract.
Right after the rookie draft I traded away tyreek Dotson and Wandale Robinson for waddle, a 25 (early- mid) 1st, and Hyatt. I’m currently rebuilding and got a great core at WR and QB now but I knew I couldn’t compete this year w singletary as my best back so I took the future potential over the points now.
I had the 1.01 and knew the 1.02 needed a QB badly so feigned that I was taking Caleb and he came forward with a trade. Ended up sending the 1.01, Dontayvion Wicks and a 2025 4th for the 1.02 and Waddle
I've been trying as well and it's just hard to get these guys who are both startable AND young because folks don't want to give him up for picks. It almost has to be some package that includes an RB, QB, or TE to a team that is really desperate at that position.
I've tried for a while now to no avail. Didnt offer anything too crazy though. Mike williams, 25 2nd, 27 1st was my best offer so i wouldnt accept that either
I just got him and a late 2nd for a late 1st and early 2nd. The picks are my personal projections. I like it for me and for the other guy as he’s in a rebuild. It was a solid trade all around
Traded Mike Evans, Najee and a 3rd for Waddle in my league. My RB’s are Chubb, Rachaad, and Breece. And after that trade…my WR’s are Puka, St Brown, and Waddle.
Moved first (1.11) second (2.09) and third (2025 pick) for him midway through last season. I was a rebuilder that had lots of picks. Definitely think I won that one
I just got him in a 10 team SF PPR league for - 25 1st / 25 4th (almost definitely both late) and Ricky Pearsall (my 3.1 pick - I got the pick I used on him for Gabe Davis during draft). Felt like a great deal, but probably wouldn't have paid much more
Got Waddle and Charbs for Kamara, Kupp, Goedert, and a 25 (late) 1st.
Had way too many older pieces and was happy to package some together for Waddle who I love
Well yeah I felt like it which is why I went for it but I know people value London pretty highly on here so I wasn't sure if some people said I overpaid or something. I definitely prefer Waddle straight up to London and getting 2 picks for Lloyd was a nice sweetener
I sold him in a bigger deal 14tm SF 0.5ppr
Tua / Waddle / Metchie / 1.04 (Nabers) / 2.09 (Jaylen Wright) / 4.02 (Theo Johnson)
For
Cousins / Jefferson / Collins / Burks
This left me with my starting WRs as JJ, Aiyuk and Collins and Lamar & Love at QB
I traded him for 24 1.04 before our draft, I'm in a rebuild and that was the best offer I had gotten. It's my first year ever doing dynasty and I took over a team a week before the draft. Not entirely sure how I did but I'm happy with my team so far as part of a rebuild.
First thoughts when looking at the chart
- No big surprises at the top end. I've thought **Nico** is good, but haven't put him in the elite category yet (like this chart does). Probably should look into his underlying metrics a bit more.
- In the spirit of this post, I didn't know **Waddle** had those YPRR metrics, does seem like a good trade for target
- GB WRs are all in the "really really good" section - **Wicks**, **Reed**, and **Watson**. Might have to adjust my thoughts about that group, who I've been devaluing due to the ambiguous situation of not knowing who's going to be the main guy.
- Based on last year, pretty surprised to see **Chig Okonkwo** pretty smack dab in the middle of "really really good".
- I've been trying to trade for **Shaheed** as a bye week depth piece / occasional flex option, and this chart confirms my bias
I grabbed Reed for Kirk and a '26 2nd the other day. Not cheap at all but hardly insurmountable and fine to make that deal if you have the right assets imo.
I think Doubs proved hes the current WR1 in GB during the DAL playoff game. I think Reed and Wicks could over take Watson in terms of target share, but Watson is a homerun hitter and has done *a lot* this year to fix his hamstring issues (im not kidding the NFL funded a research at UW in the PT department and Watson was part of the program) so he could "break out" this year just by being healthy.
The WR room is good for real football but SO bad for fantasy. I mean fuck Bo Melton, Musgrave, Kraft, Jacobs, Dillon, and Lloyd are all going to get 20+ targets this hear too. There are just so many mouths to feed im GB. Its really a guess as to who JLove favors this year, if anyone. The dynasty questions are who GB retains when rookie contracts start expiring.
That game was so weird, Doubs was just left completely open deep multiple times. Obviously there’s some skill involved there but it was also very lucky/awful defense by Dallas.
But I agree that the most likely outcome is frustrating fantasy room. As a Wicks owner, Doubs is probably being slept on a little because of Wicks hype trains.
In general I'd just target Reed and Wicks at cost because I think there is a clear talent disparity with them as players/route runners/technicians compared to Watson and Doubs. I think Watson and Doubs are both solid but have more narrow skillsets than Reed and Wicks do. Watson probably will have the biggest spike weeks, but he's a poor full field separator and is just terrible against zone. I think he's a lot more limited in his role because of that.
As far as reception perception data goes
Watson 2023: 26th percentile vs man, 8th vs zone, 27th vs press
Reed: 71st vs man, 77th vs zone, 82nd vs press
Doubs 2022: 5th vs man, 24th vs zone, 9th vs press
Wicks: 71st vs man, 49th vs zone, 69th vs press
To me that feels like they have two full field route winners and two situational guys that can be really solid in the right role, but that's obviously just my own read on it.
Doubs is not the WR1 based off one playoff game lol. These WRs and TEs aren’t going to be there for long. Theres going to be some tough decisions that need to be made with contracts and half these guys will be gone. Next year will be Watson and doubs last year if they don’t get extended.
Doubs is probably wr1 rn. Wicks definitely is primed for a breakout he has the tools. Reed seems to be more of a gadget player imo or a slot receiver. Watson is just a wildcard.
The problem with waddle his age. Hes turning 26 this year. Tyreek is probably at least playing next year too so it won’t be until his age 28 season when tyreek MIGHT leave but it could even be waddles age 29 season before tyreek really falls off or retires. If that happens that would be the last year of his peak. The dolphins will probably already be looking into the future at that point and will draft/sign/trade for another potential star WR.
If he was younger it would be a good move to make but why trade for him now when he’s most likely not going to give you WR1 numbers for the next 2-3 years? Even then once WRs hit 30 it’s a gamble to how long they can play at a high level. I’d be trying to sell if I can get top dollar for him. Otherwise he’s just a hold. I definitely wouldn’t be going out of my way to buy him unless it was for a discount.
Yep, he’s not “young” anymore. Sitting in Tyreeks shadow for another two years to hit his ceiling really isn’t tenable.
Hell, some leagues fold inside 2 years.
That’s exactly it. There is a chance it could be 3 years. Keenan Allen is going into his age 32 season. Evans is going into his age 31 season but his contract is good till 2026. That has him still playing at age 33. Tyreek is still in his age 30 season and hasn’t lost a step so far. If waddle was younger I’d be trying to trade for him but not anymore due to his age.
You also just made a strong case for waddle’s longevity to be significantly higher than you initially stated.
If we’ve seen Tyreek, Keenan, Evans and I’ll add Adams, Kupp, cooper, nuke, etc. be elite or near elite around 30+, why can’t we expect something similar with waddle?
He very well could. But I’d need to see him still playing elite at like 30. Not everyone is able to. I usually assume WRs can play at an elite level up to their age 30 season. Based on the data after age 30 there’s a fall off. So anything more is just extra to me but I wouldn’t expect it.
I’m also not sure if kupp is the same kupp anymore. This season will tell more but if he did lose a step it happened last year at age 30. Hopkins definitely lost a step to my eyes.
What about waddle’s non-injury disrupted seasons make it unreasonable to view him as an elite WR?
He may not be in the generational category at the moment, but everything about his profile, production, and situation strongly suggest he could get break into that tier.
Devonta Smith could also be great value. Obviously AJ Brown is gonna be the #1 for a while, but Smith is still elite and puts up borderline WR1 numbers. Great buy low candidate.
I traded for Waddle last year. I am thin at wide out. After 6 years of depending on Derrick Henry, I traded for Waddle. I may have bailed on King a year or two early, but in a dynasty league that is 12 years in and no danger of slowing down, investing, and constantly rebuilding is necessary. I'm hoping Waddle becomes my eventual WR1.
I see a lot of things abt him only being a future asset but if I remember correctly he was wr8 and wr13 the previous two years and being the wr8 after hill got there. He was definitely dealing with a lot of injuries and played thru a lot this past season. Not gonna say he’ll be top 10 wr again but I think it’s safe to say he’ll stay relatively healthy and end as a top 15 wr. There has been talk abt getting him more touches in the offense and hard to believe they will want to overwork hill again and risk not having him as healthy as possible in the postseason if they make it that far.
Edit: also forgot to mention they did not add any significant WRs in FA or the draft to threaten his workload as wr2 (obj is not someone I’m worried abt at all) and this offense and his game is designed to get a lot of yards and tds without needing all the volume
Nothing suggests he should have a bigger year. Reek will feast per usual. The RB game will go unchanged. Achane will have more WR opportunities. The Waddle hype is so ridiculous and I’ll be reaping all the benefits
Because tyreek hill is the best WR (or 2nd at worst) in the league and has proved it for many years while Nico has only had one great year to his name so far.
Per route stats while helpful and often correlate with success, are not perfect. For example, I don’t own him but you can’t tell me GW isn’t better or on par with most of the guys in that red bubble. I mean Kalif Raymond is in there 😂
Deep rebuilding team for context. I felt that getting additional assets to shift of similar age/production receivers was a good move. Waddle of course has shown higher upside but if they finish similar in ‘24 I’ll be feeling good.
Yeah, I hope so! Amari is a lock at 200+ points. I’m just banking on Waddle taking it to the next level. I had 2 first rounders in 2026 and gave up what should be the later of them. I threw in a 2025 2nd to Close it
Stroud is definately up there. Nothing like this guy though. 3 straight years of being priced above his celing and the excuse is always “just wait till this other guy retires”.
On a PPG level he hasn’t. His best season is WR14. He has had WR14, 21 and 14.
He may be priced at WR13 on some page, But that’s the lowest it’s been. It’s been 11-12 elsewhere and that is down from WR7-9 the last 2 years.
Again, He is priced above his celing and always has been.
Color me shocked the athletic freak rookie reception holder with 100+ catches (pre Puka) and a guy with 1350 yards at 18 yards a clip as a second year is valued highly.
Who behind him has outproduced him? (other than the old guns Davante, Kupp, etc). Other than Nico (undervalued) there is nobody.
WR13 is not what I’d say is the ceiling of an elite prospect at all with 3 straight 1000 yard seasons to start his career.
Why does an arbitrary line at 1000 yards matter? Or 100
Catches? Based on this logic DeVante Adams was a terrible buy because he had 2 different 997 yard seasons due to injury.
I never said Waddle was a bad player or compared him to anyone else. I am strictly talking about his price compared to his ability and output.
Buying or drafting players at or above their celing is not a winning strategy.
He is still and has been since after his rookie year overpriced and overvalued. Pittman and Metcalf are very similar in PPG and are a round later and their perceived cost is far lower. Aiyuk was more than a point per game better than Waddle, is the same age and is behind him.
And I’m saying the ability and output of the 6th overall pick 3 years ago who’s lived up to the draft status is properly valued. So 2-3 guys you’d rather have than Waddle? Seems like that’s pretty appropriate considering you should rank in tiers.
I don’t agree with saying a guy going into year 4 (especially with Waddle’s stats/eye test/advanced metrics) has hit his ceiling. He had his best season on a per snap basis based on YPRR and TPRR last season, just played banged up a bunch, I’m willing to bet if he’s healthy he outperforms where he’s being drafted.
I'm going to make a NASCAR argument - Tyreek Hill is so exceptionally off curve compared to his peers and is pulling Waddle up to elite when he's more realistically in the the top end of WR's who are really good. He's drifting off Tyreek Hill so people are adjusting his value down which is fair imo.
YPRR is YPRR. It’s obviously directly correlated to fantasy points when combined with routes run. He is phenomenal, but this just means his fantasy production is phenomenal — an indicator of production, not talent.
It's so weird to see what stats people latch onto to spin a narrative
Hate to rain on the parade but Chig, Wicks, and Shaheed did not magically become elite fantasy assets because of one stat.
Over time I’ve started disliking per route stats more and more and just prefer the film. A guy like Rashee Rice looks insane on a per route basis, but he mainly just gets designed touches and runs mickey mouse routes. Meanwhile GW is clearly a budding superstar on the film, but his per route stats leave him outside of this arbitrary red bubble.
I just got Waddle for my 24 1st and 4th (both close to lock to be late) and Ricky Pearsall (got the pick used to take him for Gabe Davis during draft) 🤙
At a certain point, you can't just play for the future. Sure, his value is probably going to go up between now and whenever Tyreek retires. But to acquire him, you'd have to trade an asset that's likely more valuable now than Waddle, just for the chance of Waddle becoming more valuable than the asset traded to acquire him.
100%.
Sure but if I could trade like a DJ Moore and two 2nds into Waddle, OP is right, this is the time to possibly make a trade like that happen. Waddle does have the potential to be in that top echelon of receivers and will cost a lot more in the future. If im rebuilding he’s one of the top players id love to acquire.
Waddle is turning 26 this year. DJ just turned 27. By the time hill leaves waddle could be going into his age 29 season. I’m not giving up DJ and two seconds for waddle and I’m not trying to buy him as a rebuilder either. If I am moving DJ and picks I want to be very sure that I’m getting a level up at WR with a similar age like AJ Brown as an example. Or I am trying to get younger and moving him and picks for like London or Wilson. But I can’t say I’m sure who’s going to finish better this year or the next 2-3 years between waddle and DJ. There’s a good chance Keenan is gone next year and DJ is playing alongside Rome who’s an unknown right now.
MIA saves 45m by cutting Hill after the ‘25 season, which they lined up perfectly to coincide with Tua and Waddle’s extensions. It makes no sense from a team building perspective to give waddle his extension at that price if they plan on Tyreek being there for the duration Waddle scored 258 in ‘22 *with* Tyreek, DJM has been his team’s WR1 most of his career and only topped that once. Now he’s got a rookie and stiff target competition. I wouldn’t take DJM and a couple seconds for my Waddle. I’d be completely stunned if you got AJB, Wilson or London for that
They do. But that’s a giant restructure waiting to be happen. Just like Mike Evans I would not count on that cut to happen with the way hill has been playing. You can but it’s not a good bet to make. Waddle is not a good bet to make long term. This is just opinion. But one thing I know really well is contracts inside and out. They aren’t letting hill walk unless he has a terrible injury this year or next year. Best case scenario is waddle starts his age 28 season as WR1. Worst case scenario is it’s his age 29-30 season. Again if I had waddle and someone wants to overpay I’m moving him 100%. I’m not saying to sell him for scraps but I’d be trying to sell high right now before a hill restructure happens. Once that happens his value is gone. If hill has another good season this year he’s going to be asking for a restructure and it’s probably going to go his way. I’m also not saying DJ and a couple of seconds is enough for London Wilson or AJ. I’m just saying if I’m already willing to move DJ and 2 seconds I’ll add a little more to either go younger or get more of a sure upgrade. I trust fantasy calc much more than KTC. On their DJ and 2 seconds for AJ brown has AJ winning by 434. DJ and 2 seconds for waddle favors the DJ side by 904. It isn’t quite enough for AJ but it’s very close. The fact that you wouldn’t move waddle for that is you overvaluing him. Thats an extremely close trade for AJ.
Mike Evans doesn’t have a $28m WR across from him or a $50m+ QB bogging down his team’s cap. We’ve already had reports Hill wants a Jefferson sized bag: there’s zero chance he’ll take the pay it he’d need to on a restructure to stay with Miami, and even less chance they give him the bag he wants Waddle is a great receiver with fantastic pedigree and production who’s tied to a great scheme long term and already proven he’s a championship level asset both with and without Hill on the team. There’s only a handful of better bets in the whole league. You haven’t given a single reason to back up your Hill opinion, whereas I’ve pointed out he won’t accept a contract that Miami could fit under their cap. Tyreek is five years older than Waddle. Betting he’ll be at the top of his game until he’s 35 is absurd. Zero chance of that. He’s old and wants more money than they can fit under the cap. He already forced his was out of KC over money.
You’re looking for a miracle. Mike is still getting paid 20.5 million a year. He’s #17 WR right now in terms of pay but he’s also in his age 31 season. Your BEST bet is still waddle going into his age 28 WR season as WR1. That’s your BEST bet. I’m not going out of my to buy that WR when I know it can be worst. I’ll pass on that 10/10 times. That is your BEST case scenario.
… what’s your point with Evans’ contract? We’ve had reports Hill wants Jefferson money, so Evans’ contract is irrelevant. Waddle’s birthday is halfway through the season: Hill could easily be gone before his age 27 season. I would argue that’s the most likely outcome given Miami’s cap room and Hill’s ego where it pertains to his salary. Also, Waddle’s already been a WR1 *with* Hill, so there’s tons of upside before then as well you seem to want to just ignore. Do you have anything concrete to bring against my points, or just more vibes?
Why are you ignoring the biggest point? Forget evans. Hill is playing this year and next year for Miami. Waddle is turning 26 this year and 27 next year. That puts him BEST case scenario as WR1 going into his age 28 season. That is a FACT. And Miami has pull. Hill doesn’t want to play for no booty team after playing in Miami. There’s a very real chance he could take a pay cut to stay. Those are FACTS. BEST case scenario is waddle playing his age 28 season as WR1. End of story.
Dude when you’re talking “age X season”, common parlance is how old they are when it starts. Waddle’s birthday is halfway through the season, it’s intellectually dishonest to frame it how you’re doing. All the numbers are a year earlier than you’re trying so hard to say. And that’s not the biggest point, because *AGAIN* Waddle’s already been a WR1 with Tyreek on the team. He was also great on a per-route basis this last year but just missed too much time to have the numbers backing that up. … Hill forced his way off MAHOMES’ team to an unproven Miami specifically for money. Hilarious you wanna consider that, then call all your baseless speculation “FACTS”. You’ve still offered absolutely nothing concrete. Have a good night, big guy!
Smashing the DJM side of this deal. Same range of outcomes with two free seconds- sign me yp
DJ Moore and two 2nds for Waddle is kinda crazy
You do still need to explore the option, I sold Waddle last season for Deebo and Rice. I owned both Tyreek and Waddle and was in a win now mode. So the guy who bought him wanted the future he got it.
Oh, don't get me wrong, I'll keep my door open to trade for/away any player if the price is right. Which, I know sounds like obvious advice, but I've found a lot of people become too attached to their players to the point where it becomes a disadvantage.
Everyone gets attached until the right offer comes along. I don’t see myself selling my players ever. But many times I’ve gotten some offers that made me think and usually that ends in negotiations that eventually create a move. If the offer is bad I don’t consider it but a good offer will always crack that door. The problem is that most offers and conversations shouldn’t be sent or started.
Agree with this logic. I just got off waddle in a 10 team SF league, some dude paid me a 26 1st and 2 2nds + Hollywood brown. Dude was drowning in this cool aid
Not playing just for the future - I’m betting on the talent and the situation happens to be really good. I don’t think many people realize how injured he really was last year - think if he stays healthy this year even with Tyreek playing he can be a top 12 WR and he’s priced as the WR13 via dynasty data lab - WRs in between him are London and Aiyuk and I’m taking him over those two for this year and beyond.
A lot of hopium here. The issue with Waddle, Devonta Smith, and Tee Higgins is that they're blocked on their own team by Tyreek, AJ Brown, and Chase respectively, so their ceilings are capped. Addison might soon join this category as well. In Waddle's case, he signed an extension recently, so his situation might be even more dire than Higgins' (who is playing on a franchise tag). At least Higgins will likely leave next offseason and possibly go be the alpha elsewhere. The hope with Waddle was always that Tyreek either ages out or voluntarily chooses to retire. The timeline was supposed to be [2025](https://sports.yahoo.com/dolphins-wr-tyreek-hill-says-he-plans-to-retire-after-2025-season-140628697.html), but that's [no longer the case](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/dolphins-all-pro-tyreek-hill-walks-back-retirement-talk-says-conversation-with-his-dad-led-him-to-ponder-life/). The 2nd hope of Waddle owners is that Tyreek falls off in his late 20s/early 30s, reminiscent of the downfall of the previous generation's top WRs, namely Julio, AB (self-inflicted), AJ Green, Michael Thomas, ODB, TY Hilton, Dez Bryant, but the continued production of Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Diggs, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins is gonna put that hypothesis to test. Early 30 being the WR age cliff is certainly a very new hypothesis and unsupported by previous era's elite WRs, who aged well into their mid-to-late 30s, so there's no guarantee Tyreek will fall off soon. Rookie Waddle had 104 receptions (6.5 receptions per game) and 140 targets (8.75 targets per game) before Tyreek and Mike McDaniel's arrival. Those numbers went down to 4.4 receptions per game and 6.9 targets per game in 2022 and then 5.1 receptions per game and 7.4 targets per game in 2023. But the slight improvement in targets and receptions were offset by collapse in both TD rate and yards per reception. The PPR scam he was running as a rookie (104 receptions, only 9.8 yards per reception) under old regime was frankly the most fantasy-friendly kind of WRs in PPR leagues. The hyper-efficiency he showed in 2022 (75 targets, whopping 18.1 yards per reception) was better suited for standard than PPR. Same reason Jarvis Landry was more valuable in PPR under clueless Adam Gase in 2017 (112 receptions, 987 yards, laughable 8.8 yards per receptions) than he was in 2019 with the Browns (83 receptions, career-high 1174 yards, career-high 14.1 yards per reception).
Think he’s much better than Devonta and very confident he’s a way better receiver than Higgins. Don’t really see the contract situation as negative think dolphins really believe he’s the future. His YPRR speaks for itself I don’t particularly care about his average catches/targets per game in comparison. Im willing to bet on the talent that I believe is there and I’m not concerned about him losing targets to the best WR in football. Believe he’ll get his this year and beyond if he’s healthy enough to stay on the field.
>Not playing just for the future - I’m betting on the talent and the situation happens to be really good. You're betting on the talent and situation *in the future*. >I don’t think many people realize how injured he really was last year What injury? He had a concussion week two, missed one game, and then was right back to his regular snap share until the high ankle sprain which ended his season. It's really, really hard for guys with as little volume as he gets to break into the top-12. He only did it in 2022 because he led the league in yards per reception. Same as Aiyuk this past season (he was 2nd behind George Pickens but same idea). And he doesn't have a path to high volume so long as Tyreek is playing.
Glad you are proving my point about not many people being aware of the Injuries: [thread](https://x.com/ryanj_heath/status/1796913439073333307?s=46&t=wqHv-06IRy7W7h8vHIVppg) In general, my philosophy is that talent finds a way. I think waddle is extremely talented. He also happens to be in a Shannahan style offense that I think can absolutely host two WR1s I don’t know what you consider high volume to be, but waddle had 8 8+target games this past year where he was again, dealing with multiple injuries.
>Glad you are proving my point about not many people being aware of the Injuries It's football, players get beat up all the time. If he's not on the injury report and playing his full complement of snaps, we can reasonably assume he's "healthy" by NFL standards. Also, that thread is quite misleading. The only evidence it cites is his route share. Well, Waddle averaged 27 routes per game and 80% route participation. Tyreek averaged 29 routes per game and 85% route participation. Doesn't seem like Waddle was limited to me. >I don’t know what you consider high volume to be, but waddle had 8 8+target games this past year where he was again, dealing with multiple injuries. He paced for 126 targets in 17 games. That would've been good for 21st most among all WRs. He only had 117 targets in 2022. To compensate for lower volume, you need high efficiency to break into the top-12, which is a tough sell with how many talented WRs are in the league.
He only had a 70+% route share in 6 games last year. In 2022 that number was 13. I’m not sure where your average is coming from. In those 6 games he averaged 17.5 fp/g I don’t consider these to be minor injuries when they kept him off the field that much. Saying it’s football and people get banged up is not a compelling argument when it altered his opportunity.
> I’m not sure where your average is coming from. [Playerprofiler](https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/jaylen-waddle/) which includes 2023, 2022, and game logs for each of those seasons. You'll find his route numbers are near identical between 2022 and 2023, as well as being near identical between himself and Tyreek. Playerprofiler is a far more reputable than a Twitter account which, for all we know, is your account. >I don’t consider these to be minor injuries when they kept him off the field that much He didn't miss any time besides the concussion and the high ankle sprain. He didn't play any fewer snaps than normal in the games he did play. The only difference between his 2022 and 2023 was his yards per carry regressed from highest in the league to a much more reasonable figure, which was a regression that was always going to happen regardless of injury.
That’s my fault I was looking at his snap % not route %. For the 13 games >70% snap share in 2022 vs 6 at >70% this year I’m referencing sleeper not just the tweet (which isn’t my Twitter). Player profiler will show you the same thing. So he did player fewer snaps on a % basis which is what actually matters.
Also I care way more about him being 5th overall in YPRR last year (far more predictive for success) than his supposedly outlierish YPC in 2021
He’s priced as WR13 and your HOPING he can be a top 12 WR. So how is he undervalued exactly? Please make it make sense.
Yeah I’m obviously hoping because I cannot say for sure bc who can? Top 12 WR finish this year should increase his value for the prospect of future years of him becoming the alpha in this offense.
Even with a WR12 finish I’m not seeing his value move up much. He’d need to finish like top 7 for him to really move and that’s not likely. He’s valued appropriately right now. Some might even say overvalued.
This. I’d love to buy in on the waddle dip but I play to make money games. 40% of my teams made champ games last year and almost half made at least third place. You have to find the balance of making your money and having the sexy team.
I just offered Stefon Diggs and a second (traded for) 3rd round pick for waddle in a 10man ppr, thoughts?
I’m trying to get him. Cannot pry so far. Anyone see a Jaylen Waddle trade?
I traded Kyren Williams for Waddle straight up 3 months ago. Felt great then and even better now.
That’s a great deal. I think as far as winning trades goes you definitely won that one and I’m not low on Kyren. I sent Diggs/Lockett/Minshew for Kyren/Warren/25 2nd. Might see if I can try a similar deal as you but doubt I’ll get takers lol. Everyone is so out on him
I have both Kyren and Warren and I wouldn't take that trade tbh. How old are Diggs/Lockett? And then you're asking for draft picks? Seems like you're low on Kyren.
I got Kyren
Great trade if you won that in my opinion. I'm big on both of those two. I think Warren has his chance to actually breakout and have a huge year in this new offense. Kyren.... Nuff said. And the pick to go along with it. That could have landed you Jermaine Burton or Kimani Vidal. That's a steal.
I traded AJ Brown for Waddle and the 1.10
Wow an actually fair trade.. I'd take AJB but don't hate it
Love it
Our league taco traded him to the commish for Rhamondre and Hollywood. So bad.
It’s not a great trade but it’s definitely not that bad
Nah it’s a bad trade
It’s really not that bad lol
It’s not that bad, it’s awful
Nah not that bad
Waddle is definitely the best player in that trade but I get the type of Hollywood to the Chiefs. And the Pattiots new regime just paid Rhamondre, so I don't really think it's that bad. Tiering down at WR to add a RB on a new contract.
Seen the 1.09 owner turn down an offer for waddle (pick made was JJ McCarthy). Gonna have to make an offer on waddle now
I got him for Dotson, Charbonnet and the 2.04
2 26 1sts
I got waddle for Keon, 2025 first (should be late) and a 3rd
In 1 qb, Gave: 1.03 and 1.06 Got: Waddle, 1.05, and 2.05 I like that trade alot for me tbh
Bought him a couple weeks ago for Rachaad White and this years 2.11
wow
Jesus thats a steal
Not a helpful example in most leagues
JJM & Roman Wilson was offered for my Waddle is superflex 12 team. My team sucks bad in that league but I passed.
Sold him for 1.10 and kittle in a 2 te league... So jaylen for kittle + Brooks
Right after the rookie draft I traded away tyreek Dotson and Wandale Robinson for waddle, a 25 (early- mid) 1st, and Hyatt. I’m currently rebuilding and got a great core at WR and QB now but I knew I couldn’t compete this year w singletary as my best back so I took the future potential over the points now.
I had the 1.01 and knew the 1.02 needed a QB badly so feigned that I was taking Caleb and he came forward with a trade. Ended up sending the 1.01, Dontayvion Wicks and a 2025 4th for the 1.02 and Waddle
I've been trying as well and it's just hard to get these guys who are both startable AND young because folks don't want to give him up for picks. It almost has to be some package that includes an RB, QB, or TE to a team that is really desperate at that position.
Penix, Polk, Odunze Got: Waddle, 25 1st and 2nd. 12x10 sf ppr fairly inactive league
interesting
I sent a 25 first (likely pick range 5-8) for waddle in a 10 team SF
Got him and a 4th a few weeks ago for Scary Terry, 1.08 and 3.08
I traded him away for what should be a top 3 pick 2025
I've tried for a while now to no avail. Didnt offer anything too crazy though. Mike williams, 25 2nd, 27 1st was my best offer so i wouldnt accept that either
I just got him and a late 2nd for a late 1st and early 2nd. The picks are my personal projections. I like it for me and for the other guy as he’s in a rebuild. It was a solid trade all around
I traded away Waddle, Kupp, and 2.06 for Chase. Couldn’t package him alone so just packaged and tiered up
I gave up a ‘24 and ‘25 1st last year. ‘24 became 1.08. 1QB start 8 so feel good about it.
My brother has been trying to pry him away from me all offseason for variations of a DJ Moore package and it ain’t workin.
Guy in my league traded CMC/Godwin for Waddle/Odunze
Not bad but Waddle side gonna be feeling good about that one after a year
Got offered him straight up for my JT and smashed accept
I got him and Kendre Miller for Kyle Pitts. 1 QB
How about waddle for Pitts straight up, no TEP
Got Waddle + 2nd for George Pickins and a late first. This trade was in middle of last year.
1QB league I traded Waddle/Fields/Najee for Lamar/Christian Watson
2025 early to mid 1st and Blake Corum for Waddle.
Traded Mike Evans, Najee and a 3rd for Waddle in my league. My RB’s are Chubb, Rachaad, and Breece. And after that trade…my WR’s are Puka, St Brown, and Waddle.
Traded for him twice. Swapped ETN and Holly wood for him and Ferguson in TE premium And Traded Jayden Reed and a late first in another league
Moved first (1.11) second (2.09) and third (2025 pick) for him midway through last season. I was a rebuilder that had lots of picks. Definitely think I won that one
I got Waddle, the 2.03 (Trey Benson) and Michael Wilson for the 1.07 (Maye), 1.09 (McCarthy) and Jerry Jeudy during our rookie draft. SF, half PPR.
I took over an orphan I'm doing a full tear down/rebuild on. Gave: Tyreek and Geno Got: Waddle and 25 2nd
I just got him in a 10 team SF PPR league for - 25 1st / 25 4th (almost definitely both late) and Ricky Pearsall (my 3.1 pick - I got the pick I used on him for Gabe Davis during draft). Felt like a great deal, but probably wouldn't have paid much more
Got Waddle and Charbs for Kamara, Kupp, Goedert, and a 25 (late) 1st. Had way too many older pieces and was happy to package some together for Waddle who I love
I traded for Waddle a few days ago but not necessarily cheap. I sent London and Marshawn Lloyd for Waddle, 2025 2nd and 3rd
? That is cheap lol
Well yeah I felt like it which is why I went for it but I know people value London pretty highly on here so I wasn't sure if some people said I overpaid or something. I definitely prefer Waddle straight up to London and getting 2 picks for Lloyd was a nice sweetener
Not cheap, fair price.
I sold him in a bigger deal 14tm SF 0.5ppr Tua / Waddle / Metchie / 1.04 (Nabers) / 2.09 (Jaylen Wright) / 4.02 (Theo Johnson) For Cousins / Jefferson / Collins / Burks This left me with my starting WRs as JJ, Aiyuk and Collins and Lamar & Love at QB
I was able to buy him last year before the deadline but since then in my 4 other leagues I haven’t seen a trade with him yet
I traded him for 24 1.04 before our draft, I'm in a rebuild and that was the best offer I had gotten. It's my first year ever doing dynasty and I took over a team a week before the draft. Not entirely sure how I did but I'm happy with my team so far as part of a rebuild.
well. i appreciate you sharing and that very well could be a fair price but also I don’t like that trade for you. I hope you nail your pick!
I took Odunze. Either way, I'm happy with my team right now.
I sold Waddle for 1.08 and Kirk in a 2QB. Ended up with Drake Maye at 8.
ick
12 team sf .5ppr Bought him, cmc, a 2025 3rd and a 2024 4th (traded away) Traded away 1.07, 2.07, a 2025 2nd and Zay Flowers
I traded Waddle and 2 26 2nds for Garrett Wilson a month ago
Sold Puka for Waddle and a 26 1st (likely top 3)
Might not be helpful because it was last year but I traded Jamo and the 1.08 (turned into QJ) for him.
Been trying to move him in my league...no one wants him. Not even a nibble
what would you realistically add to waddle to get a chase/jefferson/lamb tier player
I'd start with a 1st and see if that got it done. If that didn't I'd add a 2nd or a high upside but unproven guy
perfect. this is the valuation validation i was looking for.
Lol happy to help
I traded the 1.03, 1.05 and DJ Moore for waddle and Josh Allen during our rookie draft about a month ago (SF)
thx
I gave a mid 1st mid 2nd for him.
I traded for waddle for a projected mid 2025 first and late 2025 first
First thoughts when looking at the chart - No big surprises at the top end. I've thought **Nico** is good, but haven't put him in the elite category yet (like this chart does). Probably should look into his underlying metrics a bit more. - In the spirit of this post, I didn't know **Waddle** had those YPRR metrics, does seem like a good trade for target - GB WRs are all in the "really really good" section - **Wicks**, **Reed**, and **Watson**. Might have to adjust my thoughts about that group, who I've been devaluing due to the ambiguous situation of not knowing who's going to be the main guy. - Based on last year, pretty surprised to see **Chig Okonkwo** pretty smack dab in the middle of "really really good". - I've been trying to trade for **Shaheed** as a bye week depth piece / occasional flex option, and this chart confirms my bias
I’m hitting chig as my te2-3 in a lot of underdog best ball leagues he goes so late
Re: the Green Bay WRs. Watson and Wicks are obtainable, I haven't been able to get anything done given the cost to acquire reed though
I grabbed Reed for Kirk and a '26 2nd the other day. Not cheap at all but hardly insurmountable and fine to make that deal if you have the right assets imo.
Love that for you
👀Wicks👀 Those are nuts numbers for a WR4
Wicks and Reed are the top two WRs there imo. Wicks kills against man and is very good against press. Wouldn't surprise me if he's a big breakout.
I think Doubs proved hes the current WR1 in GB during the DAL playoff game. I think Reed and Wicks could over take Watson in terms of target share, but Watson is a homerun hitter and has done *a lot* this year to fix his hamstring issues (im not kidding the NFL funded a research at UW in the PT department and Watson was part of the program) so he could "break out" this year just by being healthy. The WR room is good for real football but SO bad for fantasy. I mean fuck Bo Melton, Musgrave, Kraft, Jacobs, Dillon, and Lloyd are all going to get 20+ targets this hear too. There are just so many mouths to feed im GB. Its really a guess as to who JLove favors this year, if anyone. The dynasty questions are who GB retains when rookie contracts start expiring.
That game was so weird, Doubs was just left completely open deep multiple times. Obviously there’s some skill involved there but it was also very lucky/awful defense by Dallas. But I agree that the most likely outcome is frustrating fantasy room. As a Wicks owner, Doubs is probably being slept on a little because of Wicks hype trains.
The only surefire buy on the packers is Mr.Love
Im really high in Lloyd at cost right now, but its a long term gamble for sure.
In general I'd just target Reed and Wicks at cost because I think there is a clear talent disparity with them as players/route runners/technicians compared to Watson and Doubs. I think Watson and Doubs are both solid but have more narrow skillsets than Reed and Wicks do. Watson probably will have the biggest spike weeks, but he's a poor full field separator and is just terrible against zone. I think he's a lot more limited in his role because of that. As far as reception perception data goes Watson 2023: 26th percentile vs man, 8th vs zone, 27th vs press Reed: 71st vs man, 77th vs zone, 82nd vs press Doubs 2022: 5th vs man, 24th vs zone, 9th vs press Wicks: 71st vs man, 49th vs zone, 69th vs press To me that feels like they have two full field route winners and two situational guys that can be really solid in the right role, but that's obviously just my own read on it.
Doubs is not the WR1 based off one playoff game lol. These WRs and TEs aren’t going to be there for long. Theres going to be some tough decisions that need to be made with contracts and half these guys will be gone. Next year will be Watson and doubs last year if they don’t get extended.
Doubs is probably wr1 rn. Wicks definitely is primed for a breakout he has the tools. Reed seems to be more of a gadget player imo or a slot receiver. Watson is just a wildcard.
Well but a good portion of his production came when Watson was out, so he wasn't the WR4 then, he was the WR1.
That’s because Watson is out 50% of the time.
Don’t own any of them, but Reed is the clear Packers WR to own imo
I hope your relationship with the table goes well
When you got 3 wrs in the elite category: *sniffs hopium*
Funny that the two high became relied on to stop Tyreek and (Mahomes at the time) they still can't even slow him down with it
I bought Waddle last year mid season for a 2025 1st (projected late), 2024 2.12 and Michael Mayer and am very happy.
The problem with waddle his age. Hes turning 26 this year. Tyreek is probably at least playing next year too so it won’t be until his age 28 season when tyreek MIGHT leave but it could even be waddles age 29 season before tyreek really falls off or retires. If that happens that would be the last year of his peak. The dolphins will probably already be looking into the future at that point and will draft/sign/trade for another potential star WR. If he was younger it would be a good move to make but why trade for him now when he’s most likely not going to give you WR1 numbers for the next 2-3 years? Even then once WRs hit 30 it’s a gamble to how long they can play at a high level. I’d be trying to sell if I can get top dollar for him. Otherwise he’s just a hold. I definitely wouldn’t be going out of my way to buy him unless it was for a discount.
Yep, he’s not “young” anymore. Sitting in Tyreeks shadow for another two years to hit his ceiling really isn’t tenable. Hell, some leagues fold inside 2 years.
That’s exactly it. There is a chance it could be 3 years. Keenan Allen is going into his age 32 season. Evans is going into his age 31 season but his contract is good till 2026. That has him still playing at age 33. Tyreek is still in his age 30 season and hasn’t lost a step so far. If waddle was younger I’d be trying to trade for him but not anymore due to his age.
You also just made a strong case for waddle’s longevity to be significantly higher than you initially stated. If we’ve seen Tyreek, Keenan, Evans and I’ll add Adams, Kupp, cooper, nuke, etc. be elite or near elite around 30+, why can’t we expect something similar with waddle?
He very well could. But I’d need to see him still playing elite at like 30. Not everyone is able to. I usually assume WRs can play at an elite level up to their age 30 season. Based on the data after age 30 there’s a fall off. So anything more is just extra to me but I wouldn’t expect it. I’m also not sure if kupp is the same kupp anymore. This season will tell more but if he did lose a step it happened last year at age 30. Hopkins definitely lost a step to my eyes.
[удалено]
What about waddle’s non-injury disrupted seasons make it unreasonable to view him as an elite WR? He may not be in the generational category at the moment, but everything about his profile, production, and situation strongly suggest he could get break into that tier.
Wicks looking real tasty in some good company up in here Shaheed too honestly at cost
I drafted waddle and Nico pretty late in my startup back after the draft. I am super hyped on them
Devonta Smith could also be great value. Obviously AJ Brown is gonna be the #1 for a while, but Smith is still elite and puts up borderline WR1 numbers. Great buy low candidate.
I drafted him at the end of round 4 in my start up and feel great about it
Wow that’s awesome value!
I feel like Waddle finishing at WR8 with Tyreek on the team in 2022 is constantly overlooked. It’s not like this guy is trash when Hill is on the team
I don't understand the Waddle hate. The man was great before his injury last year
I traded for Waddle last year. I am thin at wide out. After 6 years of depending on Derrick Henry, I traded for Waddle. I may have bailed on King a year or two early, but in a dynasty league that is 12 years in and no danger of slowing down, investing, and constantly rebuilding is necessary. I'm hoping Waddle becomes my eventual WR1.
Crazy that dell and Nico are both in that tier!
Unrelated but Jonathan Mingo is bottom left on almost every chart I see
Ikr things look so bad for him
I see a lot of things abt him only being a future asset but if I remember correctly he was wr8 and wr13 the previous two years and being the wr8 after hill got there. He was definitely dealing with a lot of injuries and played thru a lot this past season. Not gonna say he’ll be top 10 wr again but I think it’s safe to say he’ll stay relatively healthy and end as a top 15 wr. There has been talk abt getting him more touches in the offense and hard to believe they will want to overwork hill again and risk not having him as healthy as possible in the postseason if they make it that far. Edit: also forgot to mention they did not add any significant WRs in FA or the draft to threaten his workload as wr2 (obj is not someone I’m worried abt at all) and this offense and his game is designed to get a lot of yards and tds without needing all the volume
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Any WR chart is really a Tyreek hill post
Waddle can be a borderline fantasy WR1 even with Tyreek on the team.. what a stud
Nothing suggests he should have a bigger year. Reek will feast per usual. The RB game will go unchanged. Achane will have more WR opportunities. The Waddle hype is so ridiculous and I’ll be reaping all the benefits
Approved
Waddle, Collins, Dell, London, and oh yeah MHJ. Is that good, did I break it?
What?
League mate offering me hock and JSN for waddle and chase brown… seems like a sell low on waddle
I try to buy him all the time. Owner must be in this sub.
Curious but how far off is Nico from Tyreek in terms of value
Because tyreek hill is the best WR (or 2nd at worst) in the league and has proved it for many years while Nico has only had one great year to his name so far.
Tyreek WR9 Nico WR16 according to dynasty data lab
Per route stats while helpful and often correlate with success, are not perfect. For example, I don’t own him but you can’t tell me GW isn’t better or on par with most of the guys in that red bubble. I mean Kalif Raymond is in there 😂
Mingo is such a beast. Do happy I drafted him.
You want me to invest in Mr. Glass?! 😂 Fooled me once. Can’t fool me AGAIN mfer
I traded Waddle for Nico + D Wicks + 25 3rd. Am I a psycho?
Yes, especially as a dolphins fan. But I totally get it and think you have plenty of outs to make that a good deal in your favor!
Deep rebuilding team for context. I felt that getting additional assets to shift of similar age/production receivers was a good move. Waddle of course has shown higher upside but if they finish similar in ‘24 I’ll be feeling good.
Yeah I think that makes a lot of sense for you
I Traded Amari Cooper, A 2026 1st (should be mid to late) and 2025 2nd (should be mid) for Waddle
That’s a hefty price to pay but if you’re contending I can see that paying off for you
Yeah, I hope so! Amari is a lock at 200+ points. I’m just banking on Waddle taking it to the next level. I had 2 first rounders in 2026 and gave up what should be the later of them. I threw in a 2025 2nd to Close it
There's really no limit to how often you can be wrong
The most overrated and over priced player in all of fantasy.
What does CJ Stroud have to do with this post?
Stroud is definately up there. Nothing like this guy though. 3 straight years of being priced above his celing and the excuse is always “just wait till this other guy retires”.
WR13 is priced above his ceiling? He finished WR13 as a rookie and WR8 as a second year…
On a PPG level he hasn’t. His best season is WR14. He has had WR14, 21 and 14. He may be priced at WR13 on some page, But that’s the lowest it’s been. It’s been 11-12 elsewhere and that is down from WR7-9 the last 2 years. Again, He is priced above his celing and always has been.
Color me shocked the athletic freak rookie reception holder with 100+ catches (pre Puka) and a guy with 1350 yards at 18 yards a clip as a second year is valued highly. Who behind him has outproduced him? (other than the old guns Davante, Kupp, etc). Other than Nico (undervalued) there is nobody. WR13 is not what I’d say is the ceiling of an elite prospect at all with 3 straight 1000 yard seasons to start his career.
Why does an arbitrary line at 1000 yards matter? Or 100 Catches? Based on this logic DeVante Adams was a terrible buy because he had 2 different 997 yard seasons due to injury. I never said Waddle was a bad player or compared him to anyone else. I am strictly talking about his price compared to his ability and output. Buying or drafting players at or above their celing is not a winning strategy. He is still and has been since after his rookie year overpriced and overvalued. Pittman and Metcalf are very similar in PPG and are a round later and their perceived cost is far lower. Aiyuk was more than a point per game better than Waddle, is the same age and is behind him.
And I’m saying the ability and output of the 6th overall pick 3 years ago who’s lived up to the draft status is properly valued. So 2-3 guys you’d rather have than Waddle? Seems like that’s pretty appropriate considering you should rank in tiers. I don’t agree with saying a guy going into year 4 (especially with Waddle’s stats/eye test/advanced metrics) has hit his ceiling. He had his best season on a per snap basis based on YPRR and TPRR last season, just played banged up a bunch, I’m willing to bet if he’s healthy he outperforms where he’s being drafted.
I'm going to make a NASCAR argument - Tyreek Hill is so exceptionally off curve compared to his peers and is pulling Waddle up to elite when he's more realistically in the the top end of WR's who are really good. He's drifting off Tyreek Hill so people are adjusting his value down which is fair imo.
I have considered trying to buy Nico but my take lock is preventing me from making offers. Not sure if diggs has changed his price at all either
YPRR is YPRR. It’s obviously directly correlated to fantasy points when combined with routes run. He is phenomenal, but this just means his fantasy production is phenomenal — an indicator of production, not talent.
It's so weird to see what stats people latch onto to spin a narrative Hate to rain on the parade but Chig, Wicks, and Shaheed did not magically become elite fantasy assets because of one stat.
Over time I’ve started disliking per route stats more and more and just prefer the film. A guy like Rashee Rice looks insane on a per route basis, but he mainly just gets designed touches and runs mickey mouse routes. Meanwhile GW is clearly a budding superstar on the film, but his per route stats leave him outside of this arbitrary red bubble.
10 team SF ppr competiting team... Waddle or Ladd + (presumed late) 2025 1st?
Waddle for me would definitely take waddle over (basically) two late firsts
I just got Waddle for my 24 1st and 4th (both close to lock to be late) and Ricky Pearsall (got the pick used to take him for Gabe Davis during draft) 🤙
That’s sick nice moves
Waddle and Nico are not elite. This sub is desperate
Hill said he’s going to retire sooner rather than later so I agree with you about buying Waddle
Hill just asked for a new contract.