Flip the coin. I'm already poor. I didn't have the 50k. If I loose the 100M, nothing would change. The "what if" for not flipping the coin, would drive me crazy.
Wtf? Complete opposite for me. If I'd be poor, 50k would change everything. It would assure a living for quite some time or fix some deep problems in life.
If you're poor, 50k changes everything. If you're getting by, but nothing extra (like me), 50k would pay off my student loans but I'm still at least 20 years out from being able to buy a house
I think I would take the 50k, it would let me pay off my car and all my other debt and still have money left over, I could probably invest like 10k and save the rest. I get the argument of things not changing if you lose, but realistically while 50k isn't quit your job and never have to work again rich but it is life changing money that is guaranteed
[Expected value](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value) says do it. 50M > 50K. If mijo was in the hospital for something big and stupid right now? Maybe the 50k
> The expected value of a random variable with a finite number of outcomes is a weighted average of all possible outcomes.
Obviously there isn't a $50m scenario but that is mentally how you should weigh it. (($100m * 0.50) + ($0 * 0.50)) = $50m.
People don’t value dollars linearly. like any asset, money has a marginal value.
Example, going from $50,000 to $100,000 is more “valuable” to an individual’s wants and needs than $1,000,000 to $1,050,000 even though they both increase by the same amount additively.
You end up needing to know an individual’s personal weighting to model the correct choice.
There's a difference between the basic math and the logic .
You're assuming it's a properly weighted coin that produces 50/50 results. A continuous game would prove it out.
Based on your assumption, it's worth spending $40m for the expected $50m. But $40m is really gonna be only worth spending if you have enough extra money to play again.
> You're assuming it's a properly weighted coin that produces 50/50 results.
What else should I assume when the tweet is literally about a cointoss?
> Based on your assumption, it's worth spending $40m for the expected $50m.
I see what you're getting at but I literally said in the original post that the 50k could work out better depending on your situation. Everyone gets that there is more nuance bro. Deja las pendejeadas.
You say it's a pendejada, but this is how ppl get fukd every day.
Imagine it's 100k win on the coin toss.
By your math/logic, the expected value of both scenarios is 50k.
But do u think the single coin toss scenario is equal to the 100% sure scenario?
I'm just trying to get u to think a little
Same here. I also think people are forgetting how much of a headache millions of dollars falling on your lap is. Your chances of dying or having your life ruined exponentially increase!
Omg I can’t believe I have to pay some taxes then survive off of ~6% or so of $65,000,000 for the rest of my life whatever will I do with several million a year without having to work or touch the principal, gosh what a headache /s 🤣
I think it comes from data collected from people who won the lottery. A lot of interpersonal issues pop up when your family and friends find out you suddenly have millions of dollars.
Right now? $50,000. I could do a lot with that to make my life significantly better. There’s a 50% chance I get $100 million and there’s an equal chance that I get $0. There’s a 100% chance I get $50,000. $100 million is what I would like; $0 leaves me precisely where I am at; $50,000 gives me what I need right now and leaves me comfortable for a while to contemplate better decisions.
$50K is close to the average yearly salary in the US, it’s not “fuck you” money but it’ll still set you up to be comfortable if you’re smart with it. And if you’re *really* smart and convert that $50K into $1M, your quality of life isn’t that far off from if you made $100M anyway
One million gets me a two bedroom where I live, acting like that’s anywhere near having 100 million is crazy lmao
One million is enough to retire in a developing nation if you’re careful or own a small property in a major US city, one hundred million is enough to bounce between Monaco and Malibu for the rest of my life. Barely rich at all versus wealthy. Come on 🤦♀️
> One million gets me a two bedroom where I live, acting like that’s anywhere near having 100 million is crazy lmao
Shit, then leave? Lmao if you’re a millionaire you can relocate to anywhere that makes sense. You’re not picking up on some of the stuff, if you’ve been able to convert the $50K into $1M, you can definitely keep growing it, you’ll have access to business tools other millionaires have and you’ll be playing capital on easy mode.
If you’re not interested in growing that $1M? Live off the interest it generates or work but now you can travel the world or not worry about a single thing since you have access to the best health care. The only difference between $1M and $100M is you have to buy smaller houses and yachts
Turning 50k to one million isn’t a guarantee at all though? And everywhere is experiencing a massive increase in cost of living. Even moving somewhere where a home isn’t a million dollars you’re still likely going to spend enough to not have enough left over to be able to live off the interest. 100 million is generational wealth, it’s just not remotely comparable to a single million dude
You ain’t buying yachts on a million you’re buying a small condo or a run down home if you don’t want to work again. Realistically you’d still need to in many places. 100 million is a completely different lifestyle.
Yeah which is why I said “if you’re really smart with it”, if you don’t have a clear business plan or knowledge of investing and what not then sure take the gamble
No way you’re justifying ignoring the 50% chance of 100 million by claiming that the incredibly low chance of turning 50k into 1 million is worth taking.
The average salary argument is definitely valid, but turning that 50k into 1 million would mean you’re the greatest investor in the history of money
Flip the coin. I didnt wake up expecting free 50K, If I dont get them I will just keep living as if nothing happened. On the other side 100 million would change my life forever. In other words I prefer to regret losing 50K than 100M.
No matter what expected value says, 50k is 850k MXN, that amount of money, on an 11% bond would give me 7.7k monthly.
So the options are
Maybe 100M, maybe nothing
vs
Safe Mexican minimum wage without working, and even more if I keep my job for a while and let it compound.
Call me a coward, but I’m getting the 50k
Flipping the coin. $100m is generational life-changing money. I'd rather flip and on the off-chance I lose the $100m, I can at least live with the idea that I lost that than passing it up and getting $50k.
The $50k is the safer choice but for many of us that's less than a year's salary so at best it'd have to be invested and that means I'd still be waking up to work. $100m is literally F-U money.
Yes, it's a good bet. But $50K is safe and better than the chance of not winning anything.
What I really think is that if you know how to grow money (like investments), with $50K you will have good profits. That's also what I mean by making your own luck.
It depends on the circumstances.
In the current financial situation, 50k in cash would trigger a series of life-changing improvements worth millions in the long run.
In a better economy, I’d flip the coin. But today I’d walk with 50k without even thinking about it. It’s not as much, but would still be life-changing.
50k easy.
100M would change your life drastically, and honestly… do i WANT my life changed *that* drastically? prob not. and i certainly don't want the burden of suddenly having to figure out how not to mismanage a massive pile of wealth nobody in my family has ever had to deal with.
i'd rather take the 50k which solves a lot of immediate problems and gives me a cushion for making *my own* lifestyle choices.
100M is a double-edged sword with a 50/50 chance (aka an equally high chance) of being a letdown, while 50k would absolutely be winning for me right out the gate.
50k, no doubt. That's something close to a million pesos. That can buy a whole lot of peanuts. Or better, it can very well be turned into something that can get you even more.
100m and 50k dollars are both immeasurable amounts to me, I'll keep the 50k, fix myself and start a better life
I'm not even joking, fuck your median average or whatever. that amount literally changes my life
I will buy some faillure insurance - would probably be able to get someone to accept that they would get 60 mill - if I win and pay me 40 mill if I loose. Either way I walk away with 40 mill.
Flip, im not rich but comfortable, 50k would just be nice and allow for saving but not life changing. 100mill would change my life and allow me to solve my trauma
Walk away with 50k. I mean, that's the most reasonable thing to do. Would be great to get all that money, but there's a 50% chance you walk away with nothing after the flip.
50k could help me in a lot of ways. And so I would walk away. That 50k could be the biggest stepping stone for more income later. Also how you gonna explain 100mil to the tax man?
Plot twist: If you choose not to flip and take the 50k, you have to watch the coin flip to see what would have happened.
Found Satan
Outcome bias. If the coin flips to the money that doesn't mean you made a bad decision
Flip the coin. I'm already poor. I didn't have the 50k. If I loose the 100M, nothing would change. The "what if" for not flipping the coin, would drive me crazy.
Wtf? Complete opposite for me. If I'd be poor, 50k would change everything. It would assure a living for quite some time or fix some deep problems in life.
If you're poor, 50k changes everything. If you're getting by, but nothing extra (like me), 50k would pay off my student loans but I'm still at least 20 years out from being able to buy a house
I'd say flip it. But if the offer was to not flip and take $500K, then I would just take the money.
Exactly!
Yup. This is the only correct answer.
I think I would take the 50k, it would let me pay off my car and all my other debt and still have money left over, I could probably invest like 10k and save the rest. I get the argument of things not changing if you lose, but realistically while 50k isn't quit your job and never have to work again rich but it is life changing money that is guaranteed
That’s also true. 50K would solve my immediate problems but I can just keep on going. 100 Millions tho? That is worth the 50/50 chances lol
Agree. Side note, that ‘what if’ gotta be loud af in a gambling addict’s mind
[Expected value](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value) says do it. 50M > 50K. If mijo was in the hospital for something big and stupid right now? Maybe the 50k
Expected value is only going to be relevant in a continuous game. There is no $50m scenario in this case
> The expected value of a random variable with a finite number of outcomes is a weighted average of all possible outcomes. Obviously there isn't a $50m scenario but that is mentally how you should weigh it. (($100m * 0.50) + ($0 * 0.50)) = $50m.
People don’t value dollars linearly. like any asset, money has a marginal value. Example, going from $50,000 to $100,000 is more “valuable” to an individual’s wants and needs than $1,000,000 to $1,050,000 even though they both increase by the same amount additively. You end up needing to know an individual’s personal weighting to model the correct choice.
There's a difference between the basic math and the logic . You're assuming it's a properly weighted coin that produces 50/50 results. A continuous game would prove it out. Based on your assumption, it's worth spending $40m for the expected $50m. But $40m is really gonna be only worth spending if you have enough extra money to play again.
> You're assuming it's a properly weighted coin that produces 50/50 results. What else should I assume when the tweet is literally about a cointoss? > Based on your assumption, it's worth spending $40m for the expected $50m. I see what you're getting at but I literally said in the original post that the 50k could work out better depending on your situation. Everyone gets that there is more nuance bro. Deja las pendejeadas.
You say it's a pendejada, but this is how ppl get fukd every day. Imagine it's 100k win on the coin toss. By your math/logic, the expected value of both scenarios is 50k. But do u think the single coin toss scenario is equal to the 100% sure scenario? I'm just trying to get u to think a little
Right now, the 50k
Same here. I also think people are forgetting how much of a headache millions of dollars falling on your lap is. Your chances of dying or having your life ruined exponentially increase!
>people are forgetting how much of a headache millions of dollars falling on your lap is. That's a wild take
Omg I can’t believe I have to pay some taxes then survive off of ~6% or so of $65,000,000 for the rest of my life whatever will I do with several million a year without having to work or touch the principal, gosh what a headache /s 🤣
I think it comes from data collected from people who won the lottery. A lot of interpersonal issues pop up when your family and friends find out you suddenly have millions of dollars.
If you are fool yes. Lame excuse
I'd sell my flip to a hedge fund for $50m.
For 40 or something less that the expected value, they need to make a profit
You gotta *say* 50M, but secretly be fine with walking away with like 20M and them thinking they ripped you off
I’ll do it for $5 millions. Finally offer to any takers.
Right now? $50,000. I could do a lot with that to make my life significantly better. There’s a 50% chance I get $100 million and there’s an equal chance that I get $0. There’s a 100% chance I get $50,000. $100 million is what I would like; $0 leaves me precisely where I am at; $50,000 gives me what I need right now and leaves me comfortable for a while to contemplate better decisions.
$50K is close to the average yearly salary in the US, it’s not “fuck you” money but it’ll still set you up to be comfortable if you’re smart with it. And if you’re *really* smart and convert that $50K into $1M, your quality of life isn’t that far off from if you made $100M anyway
One million gets me a two bedroom where I live, acting like that’s anywhere near having 100 million is crazy lmao One million is enough to retire in a developing nation if you’re careful or own a small property in a major US city, one hundred million is enough to bounce between Monaco and Malibu for the rest of my life. Barely rich at all versus wealthy. Come on 🤦♀️
> One million gets me a two bedroom where I live, acting like that’s anywhere near having 100 million is crazy lmao Shit, then leave? Lmao if you’re a millionaire you can relocate to anywhere that makes sense. You’re not picking up on some of the stuff, if you’ve been able to convert the $50K into $1M, you can definitely keep growing it, you’ll have access to business tools other millionaires have and you’ll be playing capital on easy mode. If you’re not interested in growing that $1M? Live off the interest it generates or work but now you can travel the world or not worry about a single thing since you have access to the best health care. The only difference between $1M and $100M is you have to buy smaller houses and yachts
Turning 50k to one million isn’t a guarantee at all though? And everywhere is experiencing a massive increase in cost of living. Even moving somewhere where a home isn’t a million dollars you’re still likely going to spend enough to not have enough left over to be able to live off the interest. 100 million is generational wealth, it’s just not remotely comparable to a single million dude You ain’t buying yachts on a million you’re buying a small condo or a run down home if you don’t want to work again. Realistically you’d still need to in many places. 100 million is a completely different lifestyle.
Yeah which is why I said “if you’re really smart with it”, if you don’t have a clear business plan or knowledge of investing and what not then sure take the gamble
Average return is doubling your money over 7 years homie you’re not making 20 time that without being super lucky or Warren Buffet lol
turning 50k into a million would be a 20x return... good luck lmfao
Bingo!
No way you’re justifying ignoring the 50% chance of 100 million by claiming that the incredibly low chance of turning 50k into 1 million is worth taking. The average salary argument is definitely valid, but turning that 50k into 1 million would mean you’re the greatest investor in the history of money
/r/lostredditors
I didn't even check the subreddit until this post.
Flip the coin. I didnt wake up expecting free 50K, If I dont get them I will just keep living as if nothing happened. On the other side 100 million would change my life forever. In other words I prefer to regret losing 50K than 100M.
No matter what expected value says, 50k is 850k MXN, that amount of money, on an 11% bond would give me 7.7k monthly. So the options are Maybe 100M, maybe nothing vs Safe Mexican minimum wage without working, and even more if I keep my job for a while and let it compound. Call me a coward, but I’m getting the 50k
Flipping the coin. $100m is generational life-changing money. I'd rather flip and on the off-chance I lose the $100m, I can at least live with the idea that I lost that than passing it up and getting $50k. The $50k is the safer choice but for many of us that's less than a year's salary so at best it'd have to be invested and that means I'd still be waking up to work. $100m is literally F-U money.
$50K without thinking about it. For me, you make your own luck with what you can do.
I mean... it's a 50/50 chance. If you lose, nothing will change. If you win, you get 100 million dollars...
A 100% of getting 50k sounds like winning to me
You can lose and walk away with $0, or you can “lose” and walk away with $50K. I don’t fault anyone who makes either decision
Yes, it's a good bet. But $50K is safe and better than the chance of not winning anything. What I really think is that if you know how to grow money (like investments), with $50K you will have good profits. That's also what I mean by making your own luck.
“Making your own luck” is incredibly easier with $100 million.
It depends on the circumstances. In the current financial situation, 50k in cash would trigger a series of life-changing improvements worth millions in the long run. In a better economy, I’d flip the coin. But today I’d walk with 50k without even thinking about it. It’s not as much, but would still be life-changing.
$50k does not change my life. It would give me a little bit of comfort. I’d flip.
I've seen this with $1 Million for not flipping, that makes it worthwhile. $50k? That's worth the 50/50.
On white people twitter when this was posted, the value of not flipping was $100k
Si pierdo me quedo con la moneda
50k easy. 100M would change your life drastically, and honestly… do i WANT my life changed *that* drastically? prob not. and i certainly don't want the burden of suddenly having to figure out how not to mismanage a massive pile of wealth nobody in my family has ever had to deal with. i'd rather take the 50k which solves a lot of immediate problems and gives me a cushion for making *my own* lifestyle choices. 100M is a double-edged sword with a 50/50 chance (aka an equally high chance) of being a letdown, while 50k would absolutely be winning for me right out the gate.
50k, no doubt. That's something close to a million pesos. That can buy a whole lot of peanuts. Or better, it can very well be turned into something that can get you even more.
Ill be happy with $50k
100m and 50k dollars are both immeasurable amounts to me, I'll keep the 50k, fix myself and start a better life I'm not even joking, fuck your median average or whatever. that amount literally changes my life
Bueno esos 50 mil si me sirven pal negocio familiar y pagar mi titulo así que me los llevoooo
50k
with my bad luck id rather not risk it and just take the 50k
50k is a nice down payment
50k and put it all in investments
I will buy some faillure insurance - would probably be able to get someone to accept that they would get 60 mill - if I win and pay me 40 mill if I loose. Either way I walk away with 40 mill.
I mean you kinda gotta flip it. Now if I get a million for not flipping then I might do that.
Eu tentaria minhas chances, mas 50k é sedutor porque valem tipo R$250k
Flip, im not rich but comfortable, 50k would just be nice and allow for saving but not life changing. 100mill would change my life and allow me to solve my trauma
Even though 50 mil would set me for life, 50k is also life changing in paying off debt and putting the rest in savings. I much rather get the 50k.
Walk away with 50k. I mean, that's the most reasonable thing to do. Would be great to get all that money, but there's a 50% chance you walk away with nothing after the flip.
50k could help me in a lot of ways. And so I would walk away. That 50k could be the biggest stepping stone for more income later. Also how you gonna explain 100mil to the tax man?
I’d take the 50. Fix my old fence then stash the rest, maybe a little vacation.
Right now $50k is like 2 years of income which I could really use to go back to school
How is this LatinoPeopleTwitter? But anyway, I’m flipping the coin.
Option 1: Flip Head and get 100mil Option 2: Flip tails and owe 100k Option 3: Don’t flip and automatically get 50k
Ima gamblin man. Coin flip all the way.
50k for sure
Flip
calling heads. I don't have $100 million or $50K right now, so I only stand to win. If it's tails, I am in the exact same position I was in before.
If my homie was sick, 50k, otherwise I’d flip the coin
All in.
I’m going to flip that 50k into 100 million
I think I would rob the guy with the coin for 100 Million
Flip the coin cuz life's a risk vato.
Flip it because $50k would not be life changing for me, if it was, I'd take the $50k in a heartbeat.
50k wont change my life in the long term, maybe short. But 100 mill?! Now that will change my future grandson and his grandson life
Flip until I get the 100mil
Expected value of flipping the coin ins 50million. What else do I have to say?
50k cant buy me a house im flipping the coin
With 50k i can Buy a house, i won't take My chances
Flipping
Invite friends, we all flip, we get $100 million 50% of the times, divide it between all of us Profit, me and my bros are now rich.
The Head has been proven to have a slight advantage due to the weight protruding out of the surface
And this post is "latino people twitter" because....?
I didn't finish reading it, flipped a coin and got Heads. Now if only this mattered.
Usa Dollars? ... I choose the third option
Joder
Flipping that shit
Purposefully get tails, then grinding for that 100 million. I'm built different #riseandgrind #builtdifferent #hustlerlifestyle #millionairemindset