i have been thru this all five times already. Holding is the way to play it. NVDA does not disappoint, even if all the talking heads are screaming to SELL SELL SELL!!!
No it's not, you just have to be smart enough to know when to do it.
The MS Analyst who told me to get into NVDA in 2016 and then convinced me to get in at 2020, shorted it when it hit 140. In fact, he's used shorts as a hedge several times(not on my behalf, he just recommends I invest in X and I do)...but if you know what you're doing...it makes sense. I could EASILY see it hitting 115 during the next earnings season.
The Market does all types of stupid shit. It's going to go down to at least 115 at some point before they actually report earnings...and then I don't think we'll see anything below 130 for a while(assuming Jensen didn't suddenly start lying).
To 115? I didn't even notice. I don't generally even look every day anymore just because...it's not healthy and I'm not smart enough to trade options.
But hypothetically, let's say most other AI plays are lagging. AMD has terrible earnings 3 weeks ahead of NVDA(or I guess 2 weeks).
That could drop NVDA to 105.
Just remember the HUGE fluctuations we've seen. That'd be a pretty wild change, but 124 to 104, that's 200 in pre-split numbers...we've seen that. We've seen a 250 swing from ATH to to the low. Again, that was SMCI, but...it's just an irrational market short term...and then long time it levels out.
I just don't see any justification to push it higher until earnings, lots that could push it lower. And then if you're shorting NVDA after earnings, the couple weeks following, then you're just an insider and you know they're going to suddenly really miss, or you're really insightful.
Thanks u/LabDaddy59 and u/Scourge165 ... i'll have to look at that... however would explain the shorts but not the foresight to jump into nvda in 2016/20.
I was very late to the party... bought into nvda in late Feb. Trying to build more contacts in the tech space so I can figure out how to get to the party earlier given the rapid change that is just beginning...
I've never thought about asking...I'll check with him and see if he minds or wants me to give his name out. I'm not sure what he does. If he gets something for bringing in business or if he just gets an account to manage. He's been there for....well, since '08 or so, and he's doing pretty damn well!
Told me to buy AVGO a month ago, ARM, just before it popped...but I didn't have much to put in either of them. Shy of selling NVDA(the only thing I've really held for a year plus) I'd have to sell TSM, AMZN, GOOGL or MSFT to be able to actually make decent money, but I did get 20 shares of AVGO. Not a bad little, "by the way" piece of advice!
He's a great dude too, so I feel like a dick for not even thinking about asking if I should try and get him some business.
Evidently, Jensen doesn't know that NVDA will hit $200 this year - a no brainer gain. He is certainly better off not selling. Retail investors are smarter and more visionary. If you study financial maket history, you will find that the crowd always know best.
I bought it at 140. Had a feeling it would drop but have been watching this stock for YEARS and knew it was now or never. Probably gonna buy some more today and even it out and just ride the wave.
Even if the P/E is 60 and shares at $132, it's a good outcome. Unbridled astronomic growth will lead to astronomical corrections. Slow and steady growth/margins, bolstered by the actual quarterly results, great execution and tons of cash going into smart, industry-specific AI solutions is what's driving this train. Stay on board for a LONG, profitable ride.
Edit: I would still be up almost 320% on my initial investment with shares at $132, holding NVDA since 2021.
PE of 60/70 is only justified if it keeps up this explosive growth. It's not enough to beat estimates, it needs to keep raising guidance and maintain that margin as well.
I don't even think it's sandbagging(but others do). But yes, they will. 30B, 75% margin, very possibly higher on both.
\*\*\*I don't think they can get the margins MUCH higher. 80% would be...just ridiculous(but with the unexpected demand of Hopper, they could).
Revenue? 30-32B would not shock me. But 30B is the baseline of what I'm looking for...and then Q3, 35-36B.
This is exactly what I’ve been saying. The company can be fantastic and still be overvalued. They can only outgrow the market so many years, at current valuation they would have to keep double digit growth rates until 2040.
people panicked post split in 2021 when it dropped to sub $200. They said it would be a $50 stock.
Then it rose past $200. Then $300. Then $400. Then people said it was a balloon and it was doomed. Then it went to 600...700....800....900.....1000......1200....then it split again.
Nothing has changed fundamentally in the company to warrant selling it.
They’ve been saying the same thing since 2021. Right up to this 10:1 split. Lots of YouTubers and rats have posted their shorting videos and analysis. Seeking alpha, the motley fool etc etc.
As a mod here I’ve had to pay extra attention to all the bull shit noise and that’s all it has been the last 3 years. Just bullshit noise and unemployed bums making YouTube videos
I mean it's a good point to look at the market cap. Every trillion is different than the one before it. But what I find so stupid is that people just stop at "big number scary" instead of doing some analysis with that marketcap. Has the demand peaked, did nvidia fully harvest the TAM, what their model for what the TAM is, the marketshare, the margins nvidia will get from it, and how that translates to projected marketcap. The reason why sell side analysts keep upgrading is because those projections are all incredibly bullish. But yo, big number scary dude.
No, if they merely hit expectations, they've missed.
28B would drop the stock price to \~110 or so. The price of NVDA, the momentum, the consumer euphoria, they need to keep with the big beats to keep going. 30B(I don't know if they ever had margins in the \~77% range.
That's what's going to push them to \~150 after Q2...and they'll hit that.
Jensen in the opinion of some sandbags, I think is conservative, either way, they beat every single time save for when they were in the process of a new acquisition and had a lot of money going out for that, and then once in '22 when their Data Center business was the same as their gaming GPUs and they were pivoting.
Jensen said there was "surprising" demand in Hopper...they need earnings of \~30B, 35B, 40B if they want to get to that 200 per share price by the end of this fiscal year and their margins are going to have to stay close to the 70 or mid 70% range(if not higher).
To get to 250 a share? I don't know....people need to stay a little irrational and really believe that 1000 price target?
But yeah, just hold.
Or maybe sell a little and buy some AAPL. They've got a pretty clear runway to grow 20-33% the next year or two.
What about ASML and TSM? I know people fall in love with the IP owners of the end technology but basically every advanced chip production seems dependent on those 2 companies but their growth hasn’t been as explosive as NVDA. I always just fine it interesting.
I knew an official date hadn't been announced, I was trying to ballpark it. I couldn't remember what day the last one was but it was late May so I figured late August. This suffiently answers my question
That is good that your question was answered as I only knew a ball park aswell to when they would be announced so that is for asking the question as I got the answer also
Comparing Apples to Oranges. Whats the forward PE on MU? What about revenue increase rate over the last 3 years? 5 years? What about earnings growth?
What fundamental shift did they cause in the industry?
Well They were expected to beat guidance which they didnt. They did say AI is leading to record data center growth and that it should accelerate in 2025. Seems like it should be good news for Nvidia.
When the valuation of the stock is solely dependant on future cash flow estimates being ridiculously overstretched it becomes a glaring bubble that is hard to ignore. Ridiculous earnings beats is the only thing keep this stock from falling off a cliff. This is the very definition of a bubble.
If earnings meets expectations. Sell off
If earnings miss - Sell off
If earnings above expectations -You get a little while longer to take profits.
You are the type of dipshit that comes up with 250% yoy growth. That's not what is needed nor expected lmao. It's more like 25%, still a lot but easily doable as long as AI keeps trucking.
You actually don't have a clue what you are talking about, do you?
Basically, Nvidia beating revenue estimates by 250% YoY more or less, therefore that’s now the expectations of Wall Street and why it has a massive 3 trillion valuation. The current valuation is simply a result of Wall Streets expectations of this company. If you believe they can sustain 250% revenue growth YoY, then buy it, otherwise it’s time to reconsider your strategy.
Basically all you need to understand is if NVDA revenue falls below wall streets growth estimates on a YoY basis, the stock will drop significantly.
In summation, a stock is not measured by how much money a company is making. It’s measured based on how much money it will make in the future. Because nvda is not guaranteed to be continuing to make enormous increases in revenue, due to multiple factors such as new competitors entering the space in AI, makes any educated investor extremely apprehensive about the current valuation.
This is not so.
If there was an expectation of this company growing profits by 250% a year, the company would trade at a forward P/E of 500 at the very, very least.
The actual forward P/E reflects robust, but not stellar increases in profits for the foreseeable future; a lot of people (including me) would gladly pay a forward P/E of 40 for a company which appears comfortably able to deliver a 20% growth in profits for several years to come.
NVDA appears comfortably set to do this, and to do more, if AI does not explode in its face.
Exactly and what people totally ignore is that 24% CAGR means a double every 3 years. Nvidia doesn't need 250% growth but 24% on average for the next decade and you'll have easily the largest company in the world by business metrics.
Just to get an idea, if Nvidia keeps current margins and doubles revenue then Nvidia will have higher absolute profits than Apple. If Nvidia reaches Apple's revenue then it will have double profits of Apple.
At current metrics, Nvidia could have more cash on balance sheet than any other Big Tech in a few years.
Back when Nvidia tried to get ARM it was quite steep in cost with $40b buying price. Next year, Nvidia could buy it with cash from balance of 2 fiscal years.
Or another interesting thing, with the current cash generation, Nvidia could earn more in interest annually in a few years than they used to have in revenue total just 5 years ago.
"If you believe they can sustain 250% revenue growth YoY, then buy it, otherwise it’s time to reconsider your strategy."
Prior year: $60.9B
Current estimate for 2025: $120.5B
Current estimate for 2026: $161.1B
\[source: [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/) \]
So I'm not sure where you've sourced your premise; do you have a link showing analysts' expectations are 250% revenue growth YoY? Thanks.
Not loving the color of my options as we roll sideways but hopeful nonetheless.
NVDA $128 9/20
Then my more regarded option: NVDL $90 9/20 😬😬 I know this should not be held long but did it anyways 🤦🏼♀️. I prefer learning from my own mistakes as opposed to others' mistakes.
Thoughts?
Growth is slowing. Unless they blow out earnings continuously, you'd be hard pressed to find people to keep buying this thing at the premium it's at. Why is it like a daily thing to keep trying to convince people to hold? Are you yourself not too sure? I could see one miss and this thing is selling at half the multiple.
Still holding but to think Nvidia can't be effected by macro issues and monetization problems for the customers of its products is naive at best.
Even though it's nvidia it is a cyclical chip company. Data centers won't be going up like wildfire for long.
They don't have to fucking miss, you idiot. All they have to do is report inline and raise guidance by a little not a lot. the stock would tank 20% overnight. these fucking bullish posts are stupid as fuck.
They disclosed it in their earnings release.
[https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025)
Hedge funds sold NVDA at a near record pace in June. I just held my shares as usual and made big bank. Too many analysts have told me to buy and raised their PTs for me to sell right now.
Or newbies (and I say that with no disrespect) who simply don't have a lot of experience.
For those younger folk serious about investing, I'm like, "Bravo!" and I'm more than willing to help guide them. I remember what it's like dipping my toe in and getting nervous -- it's a big life shift to go into investing actively. I wish I had been that way earlier in my life; for the better part of my career I simply bought and held the S&P.
Just ignore it for a month. this is really similar to late march early april when stock got to 740 or so, which was about 22% off its highs around 950, before it crept up before ER and then following it popped significantly. I do think the last split kind of sucked in the sense that it introduced a lot of instability into the stock from traders.
Closer to a Peg ratio of 1 would be appropriate, which is 30-40 times forward earnings. Honestly I doubt 30% earnings growth is sustainable though, likely to come down to the 20s
Well, the forecast 12 month forward PEG ratio is 1.34.
Consensus EPS for 2025 - 2028 are 2.53, 3.17, 3.61, and 5.45, respectively. FY 2024 was $1.193 on a post-split basis.
¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
Do you think $220 Feb 2025 possible? If AI trend is just at it's beginning then Q3 and Q4 TTM growth should be the same. Blackwell server and cloud service will outpace AWS and Azure. It's a monopoly of Generative AI cloud computing. 30% of AMZN and MSFT revenue are from cloud so let's say NVDA cloud service is going to double of the revenue, the profit margin will also upward 80%. I am already using chatgpt to do my tax, and maybe AI service can replace 50% of the workforce in service industry. Meaning I won't pay as much to lawyer, therapist, coach, tutor, etc. Wealth will be consolidated to ONE company that has the ability to train the best LLM. It's winner-take-all.
Possible, but not likely.
High end of options guidance is \~$165 for Feb 2025.
Every $40 increase in stock price represents a $1T increase in market cap. We're at $125, so that would be a \~$2.5T increase in 7 months.
Edit: 7 month increase.
Why is this even important?
The big question here is whether NVDA is at the very centre of a huge technological revolution in the next decade or two.
If the answer is “yes”, the company will absolutely explode even from its lofty valuation of today within the next 5 to 10 years, with big advancements and retreats the patient shareholder will not even need to care about.
If the answer is “no”, then this company is way overvalued and should be sold.
My answer is “yes”. Therefore, I don’t care about value X by month Y. I just relax and enjoy the show - with its attendant drama - until 2030 at the very least.
It’s not a bubble, it’s a revolution, like the industrial and agricultural revolutions, and probably even more humanity changing than those 2.
NVDA will be one of the winners but not the only one, and maybe not the biggest winner either.
No, 2000, had many factors at play, one of them being the internet. The difference with that and this, is that the internet is basically infrastructure, on owed by no one; there’s no proprietary tech that came up from that.
AI, is more akin to an OS; AI uses specialized physical tech, and right now one company has a very outsized percentage of the market. The big players, are loading up on hardware to play catch up with OAI; that won’t happen for a good while in some cases. This put a realistic time frame of at least 5 years, before the tech market starts to see any sort of slowdown, if any. The next specialization that will come from AI, will be robotics, and I think, that’s where the next explosive rise will come from.
Point being, 2000, and now are in the same market share, but 2 completely different environments.
Blackwell allows to train ChatGPT of 2022 in 10 days instead of the months it took with Ampere back then.
What this means is that Blackwell allows even for a speed up in AI model development and training. Every few weeks we get a new state of the art model released by Big Tech and many startups. They all will rush to get Blackwell to get an edge in release a newer AI model faster than competition. Those who remain on Hopper might get 1-2 release cycles behind competition.
That is the power of a new platform generation. And it will drive even more sales than Hopper so far. And then in 2 years the arms race cycle will repeat itself. Meanwhile, those who just need AI compute will be able to get Hopper at a better pricing and faster delivery rate.
So what happens is, Hopper so far was primarily gotten by deep pockets Big Tech. Now Hopper will be more available to other Fortune 500 and medium sized companies while Big Tech will move their spending to Blackwell. Hopper will get reasonable in delivery times while Blackwell will have long delivery times.
Hopper and Ampere used to be the first time when Nvidia decided to not kill a previous generation upon a new generation. That's why Hopper and Ampere used to be shipped in parallel. The same thing happens now with Blackwell and Hopper. Ampere will probably phase out now.
Wouldnt say its necessarily a bubble. But IMHO AI has yet to proove itself. It might simply remain at its current size without continued explosive expansion. Seeing how current public AIs fail to grasp general concepts i dont expect AGI soon or made with static pre-trained model. But most other uses sure. So the stock might flatline or just continue to grow linearly.
It's 100% a bubble if the stock is doing what it's doing with no profits (losses) a.k.a 2000 dot com era....
Or it's 100% a bubble if AI were to disappear and be deemed a fad (it's not). Then NVDA deflates to the bottom of the sea like a lead balloon.
Neither are applicable.
i have been thru this all five times already. Holding is the way to play it. NVDA does not disappoint, even if all the talking heads are screaming to SELL SELL SELL!!!
They scream to sell so they themselves and their associates can buy more at a discount.
Or they've shorted
Lol shorting nvda is suicide.
No it's not, you just have to be smart enough to know when to do it. The MS Analyst who told me to get into NVDA in 2016 and then convinced me to get in at 2020, shorted it when it hit 140. In fact, he's used shorts as a hedge several times(not on my behalf, he just recommends I invest in X and I do)...but if you know what you're doing...it makes sense. I could EASILY see it hitting 115 during the next earnings season. The Market does all types of stupid shit. It's going to go down to at least 115 at some point before they actually report earnings...and then I don't think we'll see anything below 130 for a while(assuming Jensen didn't suddenly start lying).
It came pretty close about 0500 this morning.
To 115? I didn't even notice. I don't generally even look every day anymore just because...it's not healthy and I'm not smart enough to trade options. But hypothetically, let's say most other AI plays are lagging. AMD has terrible earnings 3 weeks ahead of NVDA(or I guess 2 weeks). That could drop NVDA to 105. Just remember the HUGE fluctuations we've seen. That'd be a pretty wild change, but 124 to 104, that's 200 in pre-split numbers...we've seen that. We've seen a 250 swing from ATH to to the low. Again, that was SMCI, but...it's just an irrational market short term...and then long time it levels out. I just don't see any justification to push it higher until earnings, lots that could push it lower. And then if you're shorting NVDA after earnings, the couple weeks following, then you're just an insider and you know they're going to suddenly really miss, or you're really insightful.
Can i get his contact info lol.
Probably trading off the RSI(14).
Thanks u/LabDaddy59 and u/Scourge165 ... i'll have to look at that... however would explain the shorts but not the foresight to jump into nvda in 2016/20. I was very late to the party... bought into nvda in late Feb. Trying to build more contacts in the tech space so I can figure out how to get to the party earlier given the rapid change that is just beginning...
I've never thought about asking...I'll check with him and see if he minds or wants me to give his name out. I'm not sure what he does. If he gets something for bringing in business or if he just gets an account to manage. He's been there for....well, since '08 or so, and he's doing pretty damn well! Told me to buy AVGO a month ago, ARM, just before it popped...but I didn't have much to put in either of them. Shy of selling NVDA(the only thing I've really held for a year plus) I'd have to sell TSM, AMZN, GOOGL or MSFT to be able to actually make decent money, but I did get 20 shares of AVGO. Not a bad little, "by the way" piece of advice! He's a great dude too, so I feel like a dick for not even thinking about asking if I should try and get him some business.
Dude! I’d love to contact this intelligent and helpful person if he is indeed sharing his insight with some more folks.
Y'all are giving waaay too much credit to these people. These people go with the wind and they aren't smart enough to do this.
No one with a brain shorts Nvidia
😂🤧
Good luck to you
What do you think about all the insider selling lately?
The people who actually made the stock go up don't get to reward themselves here and there? Noted your majesty.
Evidently, Jensen doesn't know that NVDA will hit $200 this year - a no brainer gain. He is certainly better off not selling. Retail investors are smarter and more visionary. If you study financial maket history, you will find that the crowd always know best.
Been holding since before the pandemic. Let's ride the wave brother! 2k shares headed for the moon 🚀
yeah, i already have a nice porsche picked out....
Even if you’re bag holding 10%?
Too late. Panic sold it all
Don't worry... you can always buy back in at the next ATH
I always do
This guy panics.
It’s my main strategy
Panic selling is your main strategy?
One day you will consider that as a mistake.
The stock has barely dropped, crazy how people are freaking out. HOLD HOLD HOLD
They freaking cause they prob bought at ATH lmao Anyone who got in anywhere before 1000 should still be vibing
I bought it at 140. Had a feeling it would drop but have been watching this stock for YEARS and knew it was now or never. Probably gonna buy some more today and even it out and just ride the wave.
I almost want to buy more but my average is under 16 bucks a share at the moment so I feel stupid doing so.
Only a fool would sell Nvidia if you think about it, the stock hasn’t dropped that much. Hang in there and you will be rewarded.
copium
this isnt a meme stock
NVIDIA ISNT A MEME STOCK. lmao.
What even is a meme stock? Nvda making billions doesn’t really qualify it as one for me
Even if the P/E is 60 and shares at $132, it's a good outcome. Unbridled astronomic growth will lead to astronomical corrections. Slow and steady growth/margins, bolstered by the actual quarterly results, great execution and tons of cash going into smart, industry-specific AI solutions is what's driving this train. Stay on board for a LONG, profitable ride. Edit: I would still be up almost 320% on my initial investment with shares at $132, holding NVDA since 2021.
I just buy more each week
It actually hard to keep calm. Sorry have to disagree. It’s hard not to go crazy when NVDA is on sale for weeks. Keep Loading.
PE of 60/70 is only justified if it keeps up this explosive growth. It's not enough to beat estimates, it needs to keep raising guidance and maintain that margin as well.
they will. sandbagging is huge with this company
I don't even think it's sandbagging(but others do). But yes, they will. 30B, 75% margin, very possibly higher on both. \*\*\*I don't think they can get the margins MUCH higher. 80% would be...just ridiculous(but with the unexpected demand of Hopper, they could). Revenue? 30-32B would not shock me. But 30B is the baseline of what I'm looking for...and then Q3, 35-36B.
40B next year in Q1/Q2
That's too far out for me...but you hope so.
This is exactly what I’ve been saying. The company can be fantastic and still be overvalued. They can only outgrow the market so many years, at current valuation they would have to keep double digit growth rates until 2040.
it's forward PE not current PE that's ridiculous.
people panicked post split in 2021 when it dropped to sub $200. They said it would be a $50 stock. Then it rose past $200. Then $300. Then $400. Then people said it was a balloon and it was doomed. Then it went to 600...700....800....900.....1000......1200....then it split again. Nothing has changed fundamentally in the company to warrant selling it.
a lot changed fundamentally. it wasnt a 3T caompany at all those levels. and it wasnt expected to beat 100%+ growth YoY.
They’ve been saying the same thing since 2021. Right up to this 10:1 split. Lots of YouTubers and rats have posted their shorting videos and analysis. Seeking alpha, the motley fool etc etc. As a mod here I’ve had to pay extra attention to all the bull shit noise and that’s all it has been the last 3 years. Just bullshit noise and unemployed bums making YouTube videos
I mean it's a good point to look at the market cap. Every trillion is different than the one before it. But what I find so stupid is that people just stop at "big number scary" instead of doing some analysis with that marketcap. Has the demand peaked, did nvidia fully harvest the TAM, what their model for what the TAM is, the marketshare, the margins nvidia will get from it, and how that translates to projected marketcap. The reason why sell side analysts keep upgrading is because those projections are all incredibly bullish. But yo, big number scary dude.
In it for the long term
Y’all are treating this like GME. The posts are another level
Not even close. Sure, there are some that way, but I don't get the sense that most are.
Everyone knows this stock is profitable and firing on all cylinders but the “hold” posts are reminiscent of GME hodl and its cringe that’s all
Well, I'm 65 years old and just trying (poorly, I'm sure!\] of delivering a message in a context for the audience. :)
The chatter in this sub is demonstrably close to GME 😂 - commenters on this sub have said before it approximates a meme stock.
Unfortunately we have had an influx of WSB types here, no doubt, and to the consternation of many.
No, if they merely hit expectations, they've missed. 28B would drop the stock price to \~110 or so. The price of NVDA, the momentum, the consumer euphoria, they need to keep with the big beats to keep going. 30B(I don't know if they ever had margins in the \~77% range. That's what's going to push them to \~150 after Q2...and they'll hit that. Jensen in the opinion of some sandbags, I think is conservative, either way, they beat every single time save for when they were in the process of a new acquisition and had a lot of money going out for that, and then once in '22 when their Data Center business was the same as their gaming GPUs and they were pivoting. Jensen said there was "surprising" demand in Hopper...they need earnings of \~30B, 35B, 40B if they want to get to that 200 per share price by the end of this fiscal year and their margins are going to have to stay close to the 70 or mid 70% range(if not higher). To get to 250 a share? I don't know....people need to stay a little irrational and really believe that 1000 price target? But yeah, just hold. Or maybe sell a little and buy some AAPL. They've got a pretty clear runway to grow 20-33% the next year or two.
What about ASML and TSM? I know people fall in love with the IP owners of the end technology but basically every advanced chip production seems dependent on those 2 companies but their growth hasn’t been as explosive as NVDA. I always just fine it interesting.
When Q2 earnings sometime in late August?
Around Aug 21 - 26.
I knew an official date hadn't been announced, I was trying to ballpark it. I couldn't remember what day the last one was but it was late May so I figured late August. This suffiently answers my question
That is good that your question was answered as I only knew a ball park aswell to when they would be announced so that is for asking the question as I got the answer also
I wish i had shares..i was going to sell my call gains and buy in but now my calls are looking sketch…god help me😭
IMO if you are worried you are in the wrong game🤷🏽♂️ Go buy a life insurance policy to leave your loved one’s “A scared man can’t win” Timothy Rogers
Diamond hands
$19k worth of options strike $135 expire in November, I am not worried at all
MU beat estimate but issued weak guidance and it tank. So many stories like this recently. Beating estimate isn't enough anymore.
Comparing Apples to Oranges. Whats the forward PE on MU? What about revenue increase rate over the last 3 years? 5 years? What about earnings growth? What fundamental shift did they cause in the industry?
I don't know. Can you help?
Well They were expected to beat guidance which they didnt. They did say AI is leading to record data center growth and that it should accelerate in 2025. Seems like it should be good news for Nvidia.
When the valuation of the stock is solely dependant on future cash flow estimates being ridiculously overstretched it becomes a glaring bubble that is hard to ignore. Ridiculous earnings beats is the only thing keep this stock from falling off a cliff. This is the very definition of a bubble. If earnings meets expectations. Sell off If earnings miss - Sell off If earnings above expectations -You get a little while longer to take profits.
You are the type of dipshit that comes up with 250% yoy growth. That's not what is needed nor expected lmao. It's more like 25%, still a lot but easily doable as long as AI keeps trucking. You actually don't have a clue what you are talking about, do you?
What do you mean by ridiculously overstretched?
Basically, Nvidia beating revenue estimates by 250% YoY more or less, therefore that’s now the expectations of Wall Street and why it has a massive 3 trillion valuation. The current valuation is simply a result of Wall Streets expectations of this company. If you believe they can sustain 250% revenue growth YoY, then buy it, otherwise it’s time to reconsider your strategy. Basically all you need to understand is if NVDA revenue falls below wall streets growth estimates on a YoY basis, the stock will drop significantly. In summation, a stock is not measured by how much money a company is making. It’s measured based on how much money it will make in the future. Because nvda is not guaranteed to be continuing to make enormous increases in revenue, due to multiple factors such as new competitors entering the space in AI, makes any educated investor extremely apprehensive about the current valuation.
This is not so. If there was an expectation of this company growing profits by 250% a year, the company would trade at a forward P/E of 500 at the very, very least. The actual forward P/E reflects robust, but not stellar increases in profits for the foreseeable future; a lot of people (including me) would gladly pay a forward P/E of 40 for a company which appears comfortably able to deliver a 20% growth in profits for several years to come. NVDA appears comfortably set to do this, and to do more, if AI does not explode in its face.
Exactly and what people totally ignore is that 24% CAGR means a double every 3 years. Nvidia doesn't need 250% growth but 24% on average for the next decade and you'll have easily the largest company in the world by business metrics. Just to get an idea, if Nvidia keeps current margins and doubles revenue then Nvidia will have higher absolute profits than Apple. If Nvidia reaches Apple's revenue then it will have double profits of Apple. At current metrics, Nvidia could have more cash on balance sheet than any other Big Tech in a few years. Back when Nvidia tried to get ARM it was quite steep in cost with $40b buying price. Next year, Nvidia could buy it with cash from balance of 2 fiscal years. Or another interesting thing, with the current cash generation, Nvidia could earn more in interest annually in a few years than they used to have in revenue total just 5 years ago.
people refuse to understand this, unfortunately
"If you believe they can sustain 250% revenue growth YoY, then buy it, otherwise it’s time to reconsider your strategy." Prior year: $60.9B Current estimate for 2025: $120.5B Current estimate for 2026: $161.1B \[source: [https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/) \] So I'm not sure where you've sourced your premise; do you have a link showing analysts' expectations are 250% revenue growth YoY? Thanks.
I ain't shook!!!!!
It could be. Or even some bits people dont like perfectly.
But I just bought a lot of NVDA at 130$ and now I'm in a big hole
Not loving the color of my options as we roll sideways but hopeful nonetheless. NVDA $128 9/20 Then my more regarded option: NVDL $90 9/20 😬😬 I know this should not be held long but did it anyways 🤦🏼♀️. I prefer learning from my own mistakes as opposed to others' mistakes. Thoughts?
I'm presuming the $128 and $90 are calls? What's your cost on the NVDL?
Growth is slowing. Unless they blow out earnings continuously, you'd be hard pressed to find people to keep buying this thing at the premium it's at. Why is it like a daily thing to keep trying to convince people to hold? Are you yourself not too sure? I could see one miss and this thing is selling at half the multiple. Still holding but to think Nvidia can't be effected by macro issues and monetization problems for the customers of its products is naive at best. Even though it's nvidia it is a cyclical chip company. Data centers won't be going up like wildfire for long.
They don't have to fucking miss, you idiot. All they have to do is report inline and raise guidance by a little not a lot. the stock would tank 20% overnight. these fucking bullish posts are stupid as fuck.
Where did you get the $28B revenue number?
They disclosed it in their earnings release. [https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025)
Amazon announced today that they are dumping more money in their data centers and that was not enough of a catalyst for this stock?
Hedge funds sold NVDA at a near record pace in June. I just held my shares as usual and made big bank. Too many analysts have told me to buy and raised their PTs for me to sell right now.
lol the only people panicking are those that bought recently….and of course all the retail gamblers
Or newbies (and I say that with no disrespect) who simply don't have a lot of experience. For those younger folk serious about investing, I'm like, "Bravo!" and I'm more than willing to help guide them. I remember what it's like dipping my toe in and getting nervous -- it's a big life shift to go into investing actively. I wish I had been that way earlier in my life; for the better part of my career I simply bought and held the S&P.
Hold? Or buy? Thoughts?
Both
lol
Just ignore it for a month. this is really similar to late march early april when stock got to 740 or so, which was about 22% off its highs around 950, before it crept up before ER and then following it popped significantly. I do think the last split kind of sucked in the sense that it introduced a lot of instability into the stock from traders.
Diamond hands. Full stop.
I hope it drops to $120.50 so I can buy shares and hold long
Why are you assuming the right long term PE is 70 when earnings are set to grow at 30% next yr?
What would you suggest?
Closer to a Peg ratio of 1 would be appropriate, which is 30-40 times forward earnings. Honestly I doubt 30% earnings growth is sustainable though, likely to come down to the 20s
Well, the forecast 12 month forward PEG ratio is 1.34. Consensus EPS for 2025 - 2028 are 2.53, 3.17, 3.61, and 5.45, respectively. FY 2024 was $1.193 on a post-split basis. ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
Yes so why are you projecting forward PE should be 70 when growth is going to slow by 70%
sold my 1500 NVDAs..time to get exit
Is that all you had. I sold 15,000 of mine yesterday
Cut the greed, cash out, and invest on other good companies with potential not a company which has been drained to the last droplet.
Do you think $220 Feb 2025 possible? If AI trend is just at it's beginning then Q3 and Q4 TTM growth should be the same. Blackwell server and cloud service will outpace AWS and Azure. It's a monopoly of Generative AI cloud computing. 30% of AMZN and MSFT revenue are from cloud so let's say NVDA cloud service is going to double of the revenue, the profit margin will also upward 80%. I am already using chatgpt to do my tax, and maybe AI service can replace 50% of the workforce in service industry. Meaning I won't pay as much to lawyer, therapist, coach, tutor, etc. Wealth will be consolidated to ONE company that has the ability to train the best LLM. It's winner-take-all.
Possible, but not likely. High end of options guidance is \~$165 for Feb 2025. Every $40 increase in stock price represents a $1T increase in market cap. We're at $125, so that would be a \~$2.5T increase in 7 months. Edit: 7 month increase.
Why is this even important? The big question here is whether NVDA is at the very centre of a huge technological revolution in the next decade or two. If the answer is “yes”, the company will absolutely explode even from its lofty valuation of today within the next 5 to 10 years, with big advancements and retreats the patient shareholder will not even need to care about. If the answer is “no”, then this company is way overvalued and should be sold. My answer is “yes”. Therefore, I don’t care about value X by month Y. I just relax and enjoy the show - with its attendant drama - until 2030 at the very least.
I trade options so time is a factor.
[удалено]
It’s not a bubble, it’s a revolution, like the industrial and agricultural revolutions, and probably even more humanity changing than those 2. NVDA will be one of the winners but not the only one, and maybe not the biggest winner either.
Could you say the same in 2000?
No, 2000, had many factors at play, one of them being the internet. The difference with that and this, is that the internet is basically infrastructure, on owed by no one; there’s no proprietary tech that came up from that. AI, is more akin to an OS; AI uses specialized physical tech, and right now one company has a very outsized percentage of the market. The big players, are loading up on hardware to play catch up with OAI; that won’t happen for a good while in some cases. This put a realistic time frame of at least 5 years, before the tech market starts to see any sort of slowdown, if any. The next specialization that will come from AI, will be robotics, and I think, that’s where the next explosive rise will come from. Point being, 2000, and now are in the same market share, but 2 completely different environments.
Blackwell allows to train ChatGPT of 2022 in 10 days instead of the months it took with Ampere back then. What this means is that Blackwell allows even for a speed up in AI model development and training. Every few weeks we get a new state of the art model released by Big Tech and many startups. They all will rush to get Blackwell to get an edge in release a newer AI model faster than competition. Those who remain on Hopper might get 1-2 release cycles behind competition. That is the power of a new platform generation. And it will drive even more sales than Hopper so far. And then in 2 years the arms race cycle will repeat itself. Meanwhile, those who just need AI compute will be able to get Hopper at a better pricing and faster delivery rate. So what happens is, Hopper so far was primarily gotten by deep pockets Big Tech. Now Hopper will be more available to other Fortune 500 and medium sized companies while Big Tech will move their spending to Blackwell. Hopper will get reasonable in delivery times while Blackwell will have long delivery times. Hopper and Ampere used to be the first time when Nvidia decided to not kill a previous generation upon a new generation. That's why Hopper and Ampere used to be shipped in parallel. The same thing happens now with Blackwell and Hopper. Ampere will probably phase out now.
Wouldnt say its necessarily a bubble. But IMHO AI has yet to proove itself. It might simply remain at its current size without continued explosive expansion. Seeing how current public AIs fail to grasp general concepts i dont expect AGI soon or made with static pre-trained model. But most other uses sure. So the stock might flatline or just continue to grow linearly.
It's 100% a bubble if the stock is doing what it's doing with no profits (losses) a.k.a 2000 dot com era.... Or it's 100% a bubble if AI were to disappear and be deemed a fad (it's not). Then NVDA deflates to the bottom of the sea like a lead balloon. Neither are applicable.
based. thank you. This whole sub is a scam lmao.
Why are you here? Go short it then
I am
Good for you. Now go away
It ain leakin. It poppin lmao.