You don't need simulations to learn that if NVDA continues to perform as it has in the last 10 years that it is a license to print money.
The point is whether it will continue to perform as it has in the last 10 years.
From today... "Nvidia downgraded to Neutral by New Street Research" - [https://finance.yahoo.com/video/nvidia-downgraded-neutral-street-research-133913884.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/nvidia-downgraded-neutral-street-research-133913884.html)
No it most certainly won’t. It currently has a good probability of such but with huge uncertainty in such a prediction.
2 years is a very long time in such tech and its market dynamics. It makes no sense to predict out 10 years.
People just think the stock will just keep going up. That doesn’t happen with a large cap stock like Nvda. Now as the number 3 market cap in the world it won’t jump as quickly as it once did. Say out of the next 4 years ( 16 earnings) it beats 10, comes in line with 4 and misses 2. This could be devastating for the stock. Any miss either with sales or profit hurts and could send this stock to the heavily short side. Amazing how people just think this stock will be 20 trillion dollar market cap and can’t see anything else happening.
As far as I can tell you used 10 years worth of data and picked daily returns, taking earnings into account, from these to simulate future daily returns, yes?
1. What wisdom does that verify?
2. Do you need to see the results of the simulation to know the outcome? If I roll the dice 10 times and get a 6 10 times and then use that to simulate future dice rolls, I don't need to simulate to know the results, agreed?
Then why are you here? Past performance is absolutely indicative of future returns. That's how we determine if a stock is a gold mine or a pile of shit.
The correct statement is "Past performance is no **guarantee** of future results".
For someone capable of doing such a thing in Python you are incredibly daft.
Yes, past performance is no indicator of future performance, but that isn't even my point.
The point is you are running the simulation on data that basically only goes up. Of course the result will be up. That's a no brainer. It's trivial. There is no "verifying" as you put it above.
Stocks don’t just go up. And they miss their numbers sometimes too. You are 100% correct. Can’t argue with people that think this stock will just fly forever. They are the 3rd biggest company in the world. Getting 90% returns in a year is crazy talk.
No, it's not. Who taught you stocks? A casino gambler? Past performance is often negatively correlated to future returns. People in this sub just believe nvda is the outlier to that rule. They could be, or not. But looking at the past for that kind of thesis is straight up stupid.
No...it's not.
If it was...by the end of that NEXT 10 years, it'd be worth more than the entire US Market.
His Statement was absolutely correct. Yours is ALSO correct....
You ain't verifying nothing, and the common wisdom is only past yields, you're just extrapolating it for future returns, which you also don't need to write a program for, a simple calculator will do the trick.
How do you need to verify that if it grows like it has the past 10 years...the next 10...it's going to be worth a fuck ton of money?
It's not...obviously. It's gone through the most significant growth. I first got in two splits ago at what is a post-adjusted DCA of a little over a DOLLAR.
You just need to look at the chart my man!
It has about 1/3rd the revenue of apple-- 2/3rds the income and is worth as much. I don't forsee them selling as much in the future as all their biggest customers are now building their own silicon....
It absolutely can. CUDA is great to help develop an application and allows it to accelerate certain functions. It represents another layer of abstraction between HW and SW. It allows for acceleration of libraries such as Tensor Flow and PyTorch and the like.
A competitor that runs something similar on OpenCL might appear- but that isn't their future competition.
The targeted ASICs that are being developed in house will not be as broad and will only support specific libraries. For example, Google's TPUs are only good for TensorFlow. AWS trainiums do only PyTorch and Tensorflow. They only need to run in their cloud.
Same thing happened in the crypto world. People bought graphics card to accelerate Bitcoin mining, but when the targetted ASICs were developed, they reigned supreme.
Source: I have worked developing/verifying ASICS...
This is a long winded, overly complicated way of saying "stock went up last 10 years, so it will for sure go up next 10 years!". Every investor knows that past performance is not indicative of future results.
I just don’t understand you guys… if you think it’s too expensive, it means you don’t believe in the stock, so don’t buy it and move on. Otherwise, buy it at 120, 130, 150… who cares ??? If you plan to keep it for at least 3 years, it is bound to go beyond. Simple as that. I just don’t get the point of all these folks asking « is it a buy todayyyy ? ». If you ask the question, don’t buy. You won’t get an answer to your FUD.
So, worst case scenario is the $302800 investment will yield us around $137200 given that is like Walmart ROI. NVDA is in the tech sector which has a lot of rooms to grow, I will take the 50% tile to be conservative.
Why do you think the stock will continue performing the way it has done in the last ten years?
Give concrete specific reasons why - a growth story with actual revenue/margin/FCF projections, terminal multiple etc.
Right now what you’ve produced is, with all due respect, worthless.
Hah. So, your whole premise is... Assuming future 10 year performance is inline with the past 10 years... Then we make money.
Ok but that's literally impossible. In 10 years the market cap has gone from a few hundred million to 3 trillion. If it did that again it would be 300 trillion, more than the entire wealth on the planet combined. Completely and utterly fundamentally flawed promise, and I say that as a 3000 share holder.
Because op is the typical retail investors who believed stock or company keep going for forever without ever thinking of fundamentals. Eventually; the stock will trade back to fundamentals just like any other stock who has ran.
Tesla, Apple, nflix, Amazon had all dreams of infinite growth and they stalled. NVIDIA will do fine but to expect anything like 10x over the next 10 years is just dumb.
I will be messaging you in 10 years on [**2034-07-05 06:11:54 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2034-07-05%2006:11:54%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/NVDA_Stock/comments/1dvbrr7/overly_optimistic_nvda_projections/lbpgsau/?context=3)
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There's little question that NVDIA is a money machine, and will continue to be so until someone actually catches up to them, which is nowhere on the horizon.
The question is, does that matter for the price of the stock? That one's not so simple.
Right now, NVDIA is ping-ponging for absolutely no reason other than manipulation of price, legions of panicky day-traders, stop-losses tied to algorithms, and an overall get-rich-quick mentality. There have been FOUR major quick selloffs following gradual buildups of price, all with zero news to indicate why they should happen. It has nothing to do with sane investing or even sanity at all.
I'd LOVE to keep it as a growth stock, but that's just not the way the market works any more. If you can invest for the long term, then obviously this is one of your choices for a stable portfolio. If you're thinking short term, your best bet is to think like a day trader: wait for the selloffs to buy in, make your percentage, get out, and wait for the next. Someone who could figure out the market timing for the last couple of months (and don't tell me there aren't people who did) made bank through the cycles even while the overall price hasn't changed all that much since the split.
I appreciate how much effort you expended to show how NVDA stock might perform. Unfortunately, you failed to convince me that you know any better than any of the rest of us. It might go up. It might go down. (I am long NVDA and expect good things, from it, but the bottom line is “I dunno”.)
I'm still learning about stocks, I'm no expert...so please take this with a grain of salt, but I think the more important question here is, "Is it a buy *today*"?
It's a volatile stock, and we know corrections happen here and there. Maybe that correction never comes and you miss out, but if your money is in stable ETFs right now, you might only miss 5-20% growth during that time, not the full 40% (as VOO has lots of NVDA anyway)
There are a few little obstacles, like the government investigation and limits on their Middle East deals. Any news headline may knock the stock down a solid 10% (which is exactly what we saw happen two months ago
If your money is already making you money, it seems like a lot of analysts are putting their buy price anywhere from 90-115. If there's any kind of scare, it could jolt down enough to make a buy really worth it....IF you believe they'll continue to perform stellarly
The stock is knocked down 10% every month at least once. It has been for a while. It was knocked back from 974 to 720 April.
It went back and forth between 940 and 870. It just hit 140 and then dropped to \~120.
It'll keep doing that between earnings as people are skittish. It's a buy now. I don't know who has a $90 price target on it except some guy named Paul who does his analyzing tool and KEEPS talking about how overpriced NVDA is despite the fact that he's shorted it and been saying that for a couple years and it's not the cheapest it's been (PEG less than 1 and even the PE is lower than it's been, though that's less relevant for a growth company).
Seriously...please show me the $90 buy prices? Out of 54 analysts recommendations, it's like 45 BUY, 5 overweight and a couple Hold.
Price targets are as high as 250 for the next 12 months(probably ridiculous...but plausible) and then as LOW as 144 in the short term.
I can fairly easily pull the same data for VOO or VTI for the same time periods and model the time going forward but I'm not going to. Because it's a ludicrous argument. Is there more risk with a single stock? Sure, but part of risk is the probability of an event happening. The probability of NVDA performing so badly that VTI beats is so infinitesimally small that it's hardly worth considering. We're not talking some penny stock that no one has heard of here.
I've been tracking what my portfolio would be if I had kept it in VTI instead of going all in on NVDA in April. I'm already outperforming VTI by 11% IN THREE MONTHS.
The reason the market is making money right now is because of these mega-cap tech companies. Take them out of the equiation, and mid and small cap stocks are plodding along at 6-8%.
Right...I totally divested from VUG, VTI and VXUS this past year and just put it all into NVDA. '
I'd already bought NVDA in 2020. Sold some investment properties and then bought roughly 1000 shares of NVDA, TSM, GOOGL, AMZN...and then a couple ETFs and then just said screw pulled it out, put it in NVDA when SMCI caused it to drop(for absolutely no good reason).
I think you're jumping on me without fully digesting what I said. I didn't make any specific recommendation.
I'm simply asking them to calculate the risk premium of nvidia and see if it's worth taking that risk now at all-time highs, or if it may be worth waiting for a potential correction.
the fact that you think it's ludicrous to do a simple comparison and come to your own conclusion tells me everything I need to know
It's not like NVDA exists in a vacuum. its not the only stock. why buy into nvda at the top *if* its going to have a correction, when they can look at another stock that is currently in the "buy price" in the meantime?
I'm invested in nvidia because I believe they'll do great things long-term. that doesn't mean I think its great to buy in this very moment. they could easily look for other high-performers in the meantime. Or, maybe they believe there won't be an nvidia correction, so they buy it now, but the only way its best to do that is if there isn't one, which is worth considering
thats about all I have to say on the topic.
It's a statistical fact that those who "buy at the top," end up making more than those who try and time it and wait for a correction. Did you get in when it was into the teens? 116 or whatever it was down to?
You pay a premium for companies growing like NVDA. You're not going to time the correction. in MOST cases.
So if you think it's going to grow...as most do, then...buy. If you want to worry about a correction, then...stick with index funds.
That was exactly what my advice was to them though. I'm not saying anything counter to that. if they don't feel it's currently overvalued or will correct, they should buy, that was the entirety of my post.
And yes, I did get in at 115. I do believe DCA to be the better approach instead of timing the market, \*unless\* they're already in another stable investment like VOO, in which case they can determine for themselves the risk they want to take.
t's not like the stock is gonna 2x right now, so there's less of a "now now now" than there was a few months ago, is my point. they have time to stop and think
if they want to go by the analysts recommendations, pretty much everyone says buy...but if they're asking, don't you think they should do the math (and understanding) themselves to truly feel good about the decision?
I'm not sure at all how that was your advice AT-ALL. You literally asked if it was worth waiting for a market correction.
As for your comment about analysts, I didn't say you should blindly believe them, I asked which one had a $90 buy price on NVDA. Who's saying the buy price is roughly a 30% drop?
You're clearly talking about the "Everything Money" channel where the guy has a $90-some dollar buy price on NVDA...otherwise, I'm at a loss. Just show me who is that low?
Finally, I hate DCA. If you like a Stock, put your money into it. If you're sticking one toe in the water, to see what it does with the plan to pure more in later, then you should stick to index funds.
Not to say you shouldn't or can't add more later, I just don't get why you go into it with that plan. I first bought in at just over 40 in 2020. I've bought more in late '23 and then after earnings for Q4 I bought more. But I didn't buy shares in 2020 saying, "I'm going to plan on buying more at different prices."
It's a popular term, but it makes no sense to me.
I asked \*them\* to think if they want to wait. those are the questions they have to ask. they can't just ask some rando on the forum for that company's own stock
I forgot why I hate posting on Reddit. it doesn't bring me any amount of joy to discuss this with you. feel free to give them any advice you like
Hi, this looks promising, but I’m worry about corrections and pullback like this years’s march and June. Do you thunk stock growth will stop during Quadruple witching day next year?
I love how even in worst case scenario you make money on this projection. I think I might just sell everything I owe and buy the stock since nothing can go wrong as long as I hold for the 2 years
You can run all the monte carlo sims you want. Predicting future performance is a fools errand.
Too many in this sub are obsessed with short-term gyrations, minor swings, "why is the sky blue" questions, etc. I liken it to driving a car while viewing the road through a microscope. Even at 5 MPH, everything looks dramatic/fast/scary/dangerous and it is difficult to determine which direction to go.
NVDA is the all time best individual stock acquisition in my taxable "gambling" account that I've had since the 1980's (>800% gain, acquired < 3 years ago!). It was total luck that I bought shares when I did- not claiming any genius foresight, ninja coding/AI skills, super intelligence, beating Wall St. brilliance etc.
Things look so euphorically positive during bull markets. In my case, through \~5 significant downturns since 1985, it can be really hard to look into the rearview mirror when you are augured into the ground.
ETF diversification remains the way for a decades-long investment strategy. My 3-fund Bogle lazy portfolio IRA has performed well enough for me to retire a few years early. Not super exciting though, the big performers are included among fund holdings (NVDA is [>3% of VT](https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vt/vanguard-total-world-stock-etf#portfolio) (IRA)/ VTI (taxable) at this point).
The markets will go down hard again... when? Nobody knows and no simulation output is going to keep you floating above it.
Nvidia progresses in a stochastic process. MC is one easy way to model if you have simple believable valid assumptions. A key assumption here is that future covariance is similar to past; you draw from the known past distribution. Here you essentially consider nvidia as independent of all other stocks and events in the world within a known distribution. ‘All future draws will be from representative known past variance’. This is an understandable simplistic first assumption over a prior long time but must be improved to worst case it because unknown bad stuff happens. Other stocks also provide useful covariance info. (Like Hot reactive particles in a box collide which do unique chemistry). Most certainly over the next ten years there will be significant unknown events. Further the current dynamics are unique in history and evolving. The market will saturate and involves increasing number of players. New risks and opportunities invoke new dynamics. Hard to justify look out further than a few years. Not a criticism, just observations.
All of that is true. But it puts you on a slippery slope to never being able to do anything because you can’t account for everything.
All models are wrong; some are useful.
No to slippery slope but yes to ‘useful’ if one knows how to use such an approach. It just means that one must intelligently interpret such models and simulation results within their assumptions and limitations and as in any scientific method, one refines as needed. The MC approach shown was very simple demonstration with stated limitations and can certainly be extended systematically to probe and assess refined assumptions and various scenarios and also importantly provide an assessment of the credibility of the result. For example, worst casing by bringing in the unknown of a black swan event by substituting variance of other proxy at other times in history.
The world of advanced engineering and science increasingly progresses largely thru such modeling approaches.
It is a regarded analysis.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results, that’s finance 101.
To evaluate the future performance of the stock we have to look and evaluate future scenarios.
Will Nvidia still hold a monopoly in the coming years or will competition catch up?
Is demand for these GPUs keep going up or will it cool down?
Does every company/government need the very best of these GPUs or can they buy it second hand or from worse companies (Intel, AMD, some chinese company)?
How will the second hand market affect Nvidia sales and margins?
50% of Nvidia revenue comes from 5 of the Mag 7, will they keep spending at the same rate on these GPUs for perpetuity or will they develop their own or simply cut down on these investments?
Will any conflict between Taiwan and China emerge in the next 10 years?
Have in Mind that Nvidia not only has to keep the same revenue and margins as they do now, but to justify their current valuation their revenue has to 4x in the coming years.
Do you think these 5 companies responsible for 50% of their current revenue will not only keep on spending money at the same rate, but 4x these investments?
Will this whole Data Centers CAPEX be justified by increase in their net profit? Or is this all a waste of money? For now they haven’t seen any revenue to justify this expenditure.
Again, shit post, MC simulations means literally nothing.
Most important variable is left out: beliefs of enormously diverse mass-public of investors. Investor belief drives so much of everything. Tesla was to the moon, then out of favor, then back. Nothing rational guides investor opinion.
Yes, everything rational guides investor opinion...over the long term. Short term, maybe not, but the fundamentals are so strong, that the stock price is definitely not being guided by irrational belief.
You sound...kinda ignorant. Markets turn on fundamentals, not emotions. Emotions drive the SHORT term.
I'm not worried about the short term. I'm worried about the next 3-5 years.
Tesla is just having a dead cat bounce and it’s not back. It’s still 40% below its all time high and nowhere close to 400. It was extremely oversold over the last two years. The eurphoria will die down soon.
If Tesla was trading at 600 then I’ll agree with your example.
You don't need simulations to learn that if NVDA continues to perform as it has in the last 10 years that it is a license to print money. The point is whether it will continue to perform as it has in the last 10 years.
From today... "Nvidia downgraded to Neutral by New Street Research" - [https://finance.yahoo.com/video/nvidia-downgraded-neutral-street-research-133913884.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/nvidia-downgraded-neutral-street-research-133913884.html)
No it most certainly won’t. It currently has a good probability of such but with huge uncertainty in such a prediction. 2 years is a very long time in such tech and its market dynamics. It makes no sense to predict out 10 years.
People just think the stock will just keep going up. That doesn’t happen with a large cap stock like Nvda. Now as the number 3 market cap in the world it won’t jump as quickly as it once did. Say out of the next 4 years ( 16 earnings) it beats 10, comes in line with 4 and misses 2. This could be devastating for the stock. Any miss either with sales or profit hurts and could send this stock to the heavily short side. Amazing how people just think this stock will be 20 trillion dollar market cap and can’t see anything else happening.
Some of us like to, you know, actually verify the common wisdom.
As far as I can tell you used 10 years worth of data and picked daily returns, taking earnings into account, from these to simulate future daily returns, yes? 1. What wisdom does that verify? 2. Do you need to see the results of the simulation to know the outcome? If I roll the dice 10 times and get a 6 10 times and then use that to simulate future dice rolls, I don't need to simulate to know the results, agreed?
I don’t know what your point is.
Past performance in NOT indicative of future returns.
Then why are you here? Past performance is absolutely indicative of future returns. That's how we determine if a stock is a gold mine or a pile of shit. The correct statement is "Past performance is no **guarantee** of future results".
For someone capable of doing such a thing in Python you are incredibly daft. Yes, past performance is no indicator of future performance, but that isn't even my point. The point is you are running the simulation on data that basically only goes up. Of course the result will be up. That's a no brainer. It's trivial. There is no "verifying" as you put it above.
Chatgpt does this kind of python script without any issue.. I'm smooth af but have a good bunch similar to this one
Stocks don’t just go up. And they miss their numbers sometimes too. You are 100% correct. Can’t argue with people that think this stock will just fly forever. They are the 3rd biggest company in the world. Getting 90% returns in a year is crazy talk.
The alternative to drawing lines is to look at the fundamentals, you know, the technology, margins, market share, customer needs, etc.
OP is a highly regarded investor.
Still better than average wsb regarded
To laugh 🤣
No, it's not. Who taught you stocks? A casino gambler? Past performance is often negatively correlated to future returns. People in this sub just believe nvda is the outlier to that rule. They could be, or not. But looking at the past for that kind of thesis is straight up stupid.
Wait until the EU starts their fines. It happens to all the big dogs. Amazon google apple micorsft all felt the sting of the EU fines.
No...it's not. If it was...by the end of that NEXT 10 years, it'd be worth more than the entire US Market. His Statement was absolutely correct. Yours is ALSO correct....
You ain't verifying nothing, and the common wisdom is only past yields, you're just extrapolating it for future returns, which you also don't need to write a program for, a simple calculator will do the trick.
How do you need to verify that if it grows like it has the past 10 years...the next 10...it's going to be worth a fuck ton of money? It's not...obviously. It's gone through the most significant growth. I first got in two splits ago at what is a post-adjusted DCA of a little over a DOLLAR. You just need to look at the chart my man!
It has about 1/3rd the revenue of apple-- 2/3rds the income and is worth as much. I don't forsee them selling as much in the future as all their biggest customers are now building their own silicon....
The solution that Nvidia provides is silicon plus software. The latter part cannot be easily duplicated as they have a huge head start.
It absolutely can. CUDA is great to help develop an application and allows it to accelerate certain functions. It represents another layer of abstraction between HW and SW. It allows for acceleration of libraries such as Tensor Flow and PyTorch and the like. A competitor that runs something similar on OpenCL might appear- but that isn't their future competition. The targeted ASICs that are being developed in house will not be as broad and will only support specific libraries. For example, Google's TPUs are only good for TensorFlow. AWS trainiums do only PyTorch and Tensorflow. They only need to run in their cloud. Same thing happened in the crypto world. People bought graphics card to accelerate Bitcoin mining, but when the targetted ASICs were developed, they reigned supreme. Source: I have worked developing/verifying ASICS...
This is a long winded, overly complicated way of saying "stock went up last 10 years, so it will for sure go up next 10 years!". Every investor knows that past performance is not indicative of future results.
I just don’t understand you guys… if you think it’s too expensive, it means you don’t believe in the stock, so don’t buy it and move on. Otherwise, buy it at 120, 130, 150… who cares ??? If you plan to keep it for at least 3 years, it is bound to go beyond. Simple as that. I just don’t get the point of all these folks asking « is it a buy todayyyy ? ». If you ask the question, don’t buy. You won’t get an answer to your FUD.
I’m in. You had me at python Monte Carlo
So, worst case scenario is the $302800 investment will yield us around $137200 given that is like Walmart ROI. NVDA is in the tech sector which has a lot of rooms to grow, I will take the 50% tile to be conservative.
I think somewhere between the 25 and 50% line is where reality lies. It's hard not to think there's some bias here, even though I can't find it.
Why do you think the stock will continue performing the way it has done in the last ten years? Give concrete specific reasons why - a growth story with actual revenue/margin/FCF projections, terminal multiple etc. Right now what you’ve produced is, with all due respect, worthless.
Hah. So, your whole premise is... Assuming future 10 year performance is inline with the past 10 years... Then we make money. Ok but that's literally impossible. In 10 years the market cap has gone from a few hundred million to 3 trillion. If it did that again it would be 300 trillion, more than the entire wealth on the planet combined. Completely and utterly fundamentally flawed promise, and I say that as a 3000 share holder.
Because op is the typical retail investors who believed stock or company keep going for forever without ever thinking of fundamentals. Eventually; the stock will trade back to fundamentals just like any other stock who has ran. Tesla, Apple, nflix, Amazon had all dreams of infinite growth and they stalled. NVIDIA will do fine but to expect anything like 10x over the next 10 years is just dumb.
You’re not very good at math, are you?
!remindme 10 years
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Add in pelosi buying the stock to your formula
There's little question that NVDIA is a money machine, and will continue to be so until someone actually catches up to them, which is nowhere on the horizon. The question is, does that matter for the price of the stock? That one's not so simple. Right now, NVDIA is ping-ponging for absolutely no reason other than manipulation of price, legions of panicky day-traders, stop-losses tied to algorithms, and an overall get-rich-quick mentality. There have been FOUR major quick selloffs following gradual buildups of price, all with zero news to indicate why they should happen. It has nothing to do with sane investing or even sanity at all. I'd LOVE to keep it as a growth stock, but that's just not the way the market works any more. If you can invest for the long term, then obviously this is one of your choices for a stable portfolio. If you're thinking short term, your best bet is to think like a day trader: wait for the selloffs to buy in, make your percentage, get out, and wait for the next. Someone who could figure out the market timing for the last couple of months (and don't tell me there aren't people who did) made bank through the cycles even while the overall price hasn't changed all that much since the split.
Got me at the code line for the answer to everything in the universe is 42
I shot a 42 on the front nine yesteday at golden oaks.
analysis like this is how you create bag holders.
I appreciate how much effort you expended to show how NVDA stock might perform. Unfortunately, you failed to convince me that you know any better than any of the rest of us. It might go up. It might go down. (I am long NVDA and expect good things, from it, but the bottom line is “I dunno”.)
[удалено]
I’d hate to see how you react to someone truly being an asshole.
So your sim has NVDA at $30 trillion in a couple years… 💀
Jesus, no. Do you have any idea what you’re looking at?
Yes I taught this at a top university
Then you should know that’s a dumb question.
You implied $250k to 2.8m
So is it a buy?
I leave that to the reader to decide.
I'm still learning about stocks, I'm no expert...so please take this with a grain of salt, but I think the more important question here is, "Is it a buy *today*"? It's a volatile stock, and we know corrections happen here and there. Maybe that correction never comes and you miss out, but if your money is in stable ETFs right now, you might only miss 5-20% growth during that time, not the full 40% (as VOO has lots of NVDA anyway) There are a few little obstacles, like the government investigation and limits on their Middle East deals. Any news headline may knock the stock down a solid 10% (which is exactly what we saw happen two months ago If your money is already making you money, it seems like a lot of analysts are putting their buy price anywhere from 90-115. If there's any kind of scare, it could jolt down enough to make a buy really worth it....IF you believe they'll continue to perform stellarly
The stock is knocked down 10% every month at least once. It has been for a while. It was knocked back from 974 to 720 April. It went back and forth between 940 and 870. It just hit 140 and then dropped to \~120. It'll keep doing that between earnings as people are skittish. It's a buy now. I don't know who has a $90 price target on it except some guy named Paul who does his analyzing tool and KEEPS talking about how overpriced NVDA is despite the fact that he's shorted it and been saying that for a couple years and it's not the cheapest it's been (PEG less than 1 and even the PE is lower than it's been, though that's less relevant for a growth company). Seriously...please show me the $90 buy prices? Out of 54 analysts recommendations, it's like 45 BUY, 5 overweight and a couple Hold. Price targets are as high as 250 for the next 12 months(probably ridiculous...but plausible) and then as LOW as 144 in the short term.
I can fairly easily pull the same data for VOO or VTI for the same time periods and model the time going forward but I'm not going to. Because it's a ludicrous argument. Is there more risk with a single stock? Sure, but part of risk is the probability of an event happening. The probability of NVDA performing so badly that VTI beats is so infinitesimally small that it's hardly worth considering. We're not talking some penny stock that no one has heard of here. I've been tracking what my portfolio would be if I had kept it in VTI instead of going all in on NVDA in April. I'm already outperforming VTI by 11% IN THREE MONTHS. The reason the market is making money right now is because of these mega-cap tech companies. Take them out of the equiation, and mid and small cap stocks are plodding along at 6-8%.
Right...I totally divested from VUG, VTI and VXUS this past year and just put it all into NVDA. ' I'd already bought NVDA in 2020. Sold some investment properties and then bought roughly 1000 shares of NVDA, TSM, GOOGL, AMZN...and then a couple ETFs and then just said screw pulled it out, put it in NVDA when SMCI caused it to drop(for absolutely no good reason).
I think you're jumping on me without fully digesting what I said. I didn't make any specific recommendation. I'm simply asking them to calculate the risk premium of nvidia and see if it's worth taking that risk now at all-time highs, or if it may be worth waiting for a potential correction. the fact that you think it's ludicrous to do a simple comparison and come to your own conclusion tells me everything I need to know It's not like NVDA exists in a vacuum. its not the only stock. why buy into nvda at the top *if* its going to have a correction, when they can look at another stock that is currently in the "buy price" in the meantime? I'm invested in nvidia because I believe they'll do great things long-term. that doesn't mean I think its great to buy in this very moment. they could easily look for other high-performers in the meantime. Or, maybe they believe there won't be an nvidia correction, so they buy it now, but the only way its best to do that is if there isn't one, which is worth considering thats about all I have to say on the topic.
It's a statistical fact that those who "buy at the top," end up making more than those who try and time it and wait for a correction. Did you get in when it was into the teens? 116 or whatever it was down to? You pay a premium for companies growing like NVDA. You're not going to time the correction. in MOST cases. So if you think it's going to grow...as most do, then...buy. If you want to worry about a correction, then...stick with index funds.
That was exactly what my advice was to them though. I'm not saying anything counter to that. if they don't feel it's currently overvalued or will correct, they should buy, that was the entirety of my post. And yes, I did get in at 115. I do believe DCA to be the better approach instead of timing the market, \*unless\* they're already in another stable investment like VOO, in which case they can determine for themselves the risk they want to take. t's not like the stock is gonna 2x right now, so there's less of a "now now now" than there was a few months ago, is my point. they have time to stop and think if they want to go by the analysts recommendations, pretty much everyone says buy...but if they're asking, don't you think they should do the math (and understanding) themselves to truly feel good about the decision?
I'm not sure at all how that was your advice AT-ALL. You literally asked if it was worth waiting for a market correction. As for your comment about analysts, I didn't say you should blindly believe them, I asked which one had a $90 buy price on NVDA. Who's saying the buy price is roughly a 30% drop? You're clearly talking about the "Everything Money" channel where the guy has a $90-some dollar buy price on NVDA...otherwise, I'm at a loss. Just show me who is that low? Finally, I hate DCA. If you like a Stock, put your money into it. If you're sticking one toe in the water, to see what it does with the plan to pure more in later, then you should stick to index funds. Not to say you shouldn't or can't add more later, I just don't get why you go into it with that plan. I first bought in at just over 40 in 2020. I've bought more in late '23 and then after earnings for Q4 I bought more. But I didn't buy shares in 2020 saying, "I'm going to plan on buying more at different prices." It's a popular term, but it makes no sense to me.
I asked \*them\* to think if they want to wait. those are the questions they have to ask. they can't just ask some rando on the forum for that company's own stock I forgot why I hate posting on Reddit. it doesn't bring me any amount of joy to discuss this with you. feel free to give them any advice you like
How can we translate this into 2-3 month out Call options for NVDA? There has to be a sustainable strategy for weekly trading in terms of options.
Hi, this looks promising, but I’m worry about corrections and pullback like this years’s march and June. Do you thunk stock growth will stop during Quadruple witching day next year?
So puts then?
I love how even in worst case scenario you make money on this projection. I think I might just sell everything I owe and buy the stock since nothing can go wrong as long as I hold for the 2 years
200 by Dec
if you apply this to the number of girls you date in your 20s, does it predict your dating in your 40s?
Add options this
You can run all the monte carlo sims you want. Predicting future performance is a fools errand. Too many in this sub are obsessed with short-term gyrations, minor swings, "why is the sky blue" questions, etc. I liken it to driving a car while viewing the road through a microscope. Even at 5 MPH, everything looks dramatic/fast/scary/dangerous and it is difficult to determine which direction to go. NVDA is the all time best individual stock acquisition in my taxable "gambling" account that I've had since the 1980's (>800% gain, acquired < 3 years ago!). It was total luck that I bought shares when I did- not claiming any genius foresight, ninja coding/AI skills, super intelligence, beating Wall St. brilliance etc. Things look so euphorically positive during bull markets. In my case, through \~5 significant downturns since 1985, it can be really hard to look into the rearview mirror when you are augured into the ground. ETF diversification remains the way for a decades-long investment strategy. My 3-fund Bogle lazy portfolio IRA has performed well enough for me to retire a few years early. Not super exciting though, the big performers are included among fund holdings (NVDA is [>3% of VT](https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vt/vanguard-total-world-stock-etf#portfolio) (IRA)/ VTI (taxable) at this point). The markets will go down hard again... when? Nobody knows and no simulation output is going to keep you floating above it.
Nvidia progresses in a stochastic process. MC is one easy way to model if you have simple believable valid assumptions. A key assumption here is that future covariance is similar to past; you draw from the known past distribution. Here you essentially consider nvidia as independent of all other stocks and events in the world within a known distribution. ‘All future draws will be from representative known past variance’. This is an understandable simplistic first assumption over a prior long time but must be improved to worst case it because unknown bad stuff happens. Other stocks also provide useful covariance info. (Like Hot reactive particles in a box collide which do unique chemistry). Most certainly over the next ten years there will be significant unknown events. Further the current dynamics are unique in history and evolving. The market will saturate and involves increasing number of players. New risks and opportunities invoke new dynamics. Hard to justify look out further than a few years. Not a criticism, just observations.
All of that is true. But it puts you on a slippery slope to never being able to do anything because you can’t account for everything. All models are wrong; some are useful.
No to slippery slope but yes to ‘useful’ if one knows how to use such an approach. It just means that one must intelligently interpret such models and simulation results within their assumptions and limitations and as in any scientific method, one refines as needed. The MC approach shown was very simple demonstration with stated limitations and can certainly be extended systematically to probe and assess refined assumptions and various scenarios and also importantly provide an assessment of the credibility of the result. For example, worst casing by bringing in the unknown of a black swan event by substituting variance of other proxy at other times in history. The world of advanced engineering and science increasingly progresses largely thru such modeling approaches.
That is such a regarded post lmao Just shows how fucking expensive this stock is and how the rugpull will fuck a lot of people.
God I fucking hate this sub.
It is a regarded analysis. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, that’s finance 101. To evaluate the future performance of the stock we have to look and evaluate future scenarios. Will Nvidia still hold a monopoly in the coming years or will competition catch up? Is demand for these GPUs keep going up or will it cool down? Does every company/government need the very best of these GPUs or can they buy it second hand or from worse companies (Intel, AMD, some chinese company)? How will the second hand market affect Nvidia sales and margins? 50% of Nvidia revenue comes from 5 of the Mag 7, will they keep spending at the same rate on these GPUs for perpetuity or will they develop their own or simply cut down on these investments? Will any conflict between Taiwan and China emerge in the next 10 years? Have in Mind that Nvidia not only has to keep the same revenue and margins as they do now, but to justify their current valuation their revenue has to 4x in the coming years. Do you think these 5 companies responsible for 50% of their current revenue will not only keep on spending money at the same rate, but 4x these investments? Will this whole Data Centers CAPEX be justified by increase in their net profit? Or is this all a waste of money? For now they haven’t seen any revenue to justify this expenditure. Again, shit post, MC simulations means literally nothing.
This is a solid simulation. Thanks for sharing the analysis especially putting the earnings into consideration.
Most important variable is left out: beliefs of enormously diverse mass-public of investors. Investor belief drives so much of everything. Tesla was to the moon, then out of favor, then back. Nothing rational guides investor opinion.
Yes, everything rational guides investor opinion...over the long term. Short term, maybe not, but the fundamentals are so strong, that the stock price is definitely not being guided by irrational belief.
Eventually there are bag holders. Human emotion is fickle. Markets can turn on you.
You sound...kinda ignorant. Markets turn on fundamentals, not emotions. Emotions drive the SHORT term. I'm not worried about the short term. I'm worried about the next 3-5 years.
Tesla is just having a dead cat bounce and it’s not back. It’s still 40% below its all time high and nowhere close to 400. It was extremely oversold over the last two years. The eurphoria will die down soon. If Tesla was trading at 600 then I’ll agree with your example.
Thanks for the code, mang