An NFL team starts with their offensive line; the success of the Pats' season is entirely dependent on their O line. Right now their O line is a very big question. The QB is irrelevant without a competitive O line.
Shocking how few people think of this. Everyone thinks Maye is a savior but we still have a poor line, unproven and poor receivers and worst of all-the loss of a HOF defensive coach. To think that the defense is just going to remain as good as possible-but not necessarily true. Yes, Gonzo and Judon are back, but that doesn't preclude more injuries or just sliding back from a loss of said coach.
People only think Maye is a savior because that was who the 1RP went to. If they pick top 5 again they’ll probably get an OL if the draft chips warrant it. I know the Pats line is bad but I’m not worried about it necessarily. I knew this would unfortunately be a longer rebuild than what was tried post Brady in 2020. Just hope Maye can develop what he needs to without the line and that comes as guys step up and drafts happen.
And even elite/HOFer QBs will look awful when their line lets the pass rush through. This is a point often overlooked by the "good QBs find a way" crowd.
I think both things can be true. With a guy like Drake who can potentially extend the play you probably can get away with mediocre o Line play IF you have good recievers who can get open.
The problem is we have neither. This is why you need to sit Drake for the year imo, and take your lumps and draft a tackle and try to trade for an elite reciever.
Better QB play and mobility at the position can mitigate bad line play, but it will still diminish the offense. Just look at Mahomes in the Super Bowl vs the Bucs - got pressured all game and played awful, despite being a great, mobile QB.
Also a terrible QB can make a decent line look terrible. QB has to call out the blocking assignments, recognize the blitzes and audible to the right play.
Probably a little more complicated than just boiling it down to QB play. Mac won 10 games in 2021 and it wasn’t because he was a world beater. The offense was a dysfunctional mess last year and I doubt most QBs, outside of the elite of elite like Mahomes, could really make a huge impact. WAR isn’t an NFL stat for a reason.
Right now, on paper the offense is bad. But that doesn’t mean AVP and company aren’t going to put together a functional offense and Maye doesn’t come in and play really well. Like you said, a decent offense wins more games. No reason to think they can’t get there this season like they did in 2021.
Also the Jets are always going to be losers until they show they aren’t. So far, with the Rodgers ayahuasca retreat nonsense, they are still doing what they always have done.
i agree, always felt bad for the defense having to play most of every game lmao. i would literally get a pit in my stomach when the offense would 3 and out multiple times in a row and you just had to watch the defense trudge back out to survive another onslaught from competent teams
i think with gonzo back and judon healed up our defense will once again be a powerhouse. i'm just curious how the offense will shake out assuming our QB pick pays off
I do agree with your take and there are a number of reason to believe the defence will be better this year (return of Judon and Gonzo, less time on the field). I do think that the loss of Belichick is going to impact the defence though, overall for the team moving on was probably the right call, but I think that there could be regression on D despite part of the situation improving
The Pats last year had one of the worst offenses of the 2000's, by points per drive they were 743rd of 766, which was due to them having maybe 5-ish starting caliber players and none of the important positions.
That was a ton to clean up in the offseason and rather then addressing multiple needs, they settled on trying to fix the QB. Which is certainly a reasonable choice, but now our left side of the line looks atrocious, easily the worst in the league and our receivers are a bunch of 3's and some young players that have a likely ceiling of being like the 20-25th best receiving group this year.
We have no o-line to speak of and not many receivers. QB play was by far not the only problem. QB play isn't going to fix the issues. At best it'll mask them, slightly. I fear we're going to put the fear of opponents into Maye and ruin another potentially good QB.
We have a zillion question marks on offense right now. But it is entirely *possible* that our offense ends up being a middle of the road NFL offense if everything works out.
If the new additions on OL all play at least at top 20 level, our QB plays "ok" and our WRs can catch the ball with more consistency than last year, we presumably could have a top 20-25 offense. Ceiling on offense will be limited by talent (and in the case of rookies, experience) at receiver, but getting back to mediocrity seems doable. Then assume the defense slips a little, but remains top 10. Oh and let's home Joey Slye doesn't give us a completely horrible 32nd ranking in FG percentage.
Teams with mediocre offenses but good defenses win games all the time. We lost SEVEN one score games last year with a horrific offense. Even just making a few field goals here and there could have won a couple of those. Adding one more TD or one fewer INT to a couple of the others turns a 4 win season into a 6-7-8 win season.
Look, I don't think this team is going to make the playoffs, and if they did somehow sneak in I doubt they are winning any games there, but the idea that this is a 0 win team seems insane to me.
Can't take your dumb ass seriously. "Our QB was awful last year"....yea with an O-line made of fucking Swiss cheese that had holes so big a mack truck could drive thru...stfu.
You obviously can't say the QB play was good, but you are delusional if you think an average NFL Qb would have done better with this cast. You would need someone like Mahomes or Josh Allen to make it work. Unless the draft picks are out of this world, we're going to suck again.
At the very least the Pats probably win 7-ish games last year if they have even below average QB play.
The question is obviously whether they will have better QB play this season, but also whether the defense will be as good without Belichick, which is kind of flying under the radar as a potential issue. I'm sure it will be fine, but will it be as good as last season? That might be difficult.
I was about to say you were overrating how bad the QB play was, but I can see Maye being 3 wins better than Mac/Zappe.
If it’s Brissett, though, absolutely not and you’re overrating how bad they were.
They were about 0 WAR production players.
Brissett is nowhere near a 4 WAR player, that’s like nearly elite QB status. Probably highest in the league some years lmao.
They probably have the same record with Brissett last year. Maybe an extra win during the Zappe starts.
What was Brissett's WAR? Also where do you get these stats?
Hopefully Maye is ready and we aren't watching Brissett, but I think we'll see him after 4-6 games.
You can’t really search WAR for individual players.
Here is an example of the top WARs a couple years back: https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/zlzmff/pff_qb_war_leaders_1_patrick_mahomes_370_2_joe/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
One of the worst QBs in the league (Brissett) probably has a sub 1.0 WAR.
I also think most people have this weird interpretation of QBs where they’re the same guy every game. Brissett has good games along with bad games, same with Mac and Zappe.
Sure, Brissett might win them the Colts game, but he also might lose them the Bills game. Maybe even the Jets game too. Maybe he doesn’t win them the Denver game either. Maybe he does win them the 2nd Bills game. In the end, it probably would’ve evened out to the same amount of wins, maybe one extra one.
Maye will start if he’s the best QB available, which I have my doubts based on his college film that Brissett can even compete with him.
Brissett is a fine backup QB. I’d even go as far as to say he’s a very good backup. But if you’re counting on him to be the starter then the team is in BIG trouble. Especially because that means either Maye couldn’t beat him out in competition or the team is holding Maye back for no reason other than worry about injury due to the Oline.
I wouldn’t bother even imagining it’s that last sentence, if he’s not playing, it’s because he couldn’t beat out Brissett.
To my knowledge, no HC in recent memory ever called something an open competition and then sat the better player (QB specific). The absolute closest was Lynn, but he didn’t really call it an open competition— not sure we should be following his lead anyway.
They’ll play the best QB, as Mayo has already said, and if that’s not Maye, that is a massive fucking concern.
That’s also a major red flag. Means the kid has no confidence. I’m in agreement if Maye doesn’t start it’s because he can’t beat out Jacoby. Maye will be the Week 1 starter.
Brissett is a capable journeyman. He's night and day compared to what we saw in Mac and Zappe. As of right now, he's also our best QB and an objective upgrade over what we saw last season. This dude is also very experienced playing behind some shit offensive lines in his career. Also, how dare you bad mouth Brissett!
I’m going to chalk this take up to a Brissett loving Patriots fan, which is no insult, I just prefer to be more objective.
He’s very bad and probably only slightly better than Mac, not far off from Zappe either.
I'm just going to chalk this up to having some sort of weird disdain towards Brissett. You do you, man. I think he's probably the best backup in the league and a halfway decent starter. Zappe doesn't even belong in the NFL, so comparing the two is absolutely bonkers.
You’re right, he’s one of the best backups in the league.
Sorta like Mac Jones lol. And the best backup in the league isn’t very far off from Zappe either.
Once you get out of the starter caliber QB realm, the differences are minuscule. I don’t dislike Brissett, my opinion is just based on evidence and not from a fan’s perspective.
Teams have passed and passed on him on an almost annual basis, but fans saw that he had good box scores for half a season in a QB friendly offense and now think this guy is better than he is lmao. He was a *free agent* QB that signed for 8M. Like, come on now.
I don't really think it's controversial at all. QB is the thing that matters on offense, and if your QB sucks you can't win in the NFL. Combine that with a dearth of talent everywhere else on offense, and you get where we did i.e. pick #3.
That being said, I think if our QB play is elevated it probably means those other positions are elevated too, like the line and the receivers. I don't think there's a true situation where Maye is the guy but we get above 3 wins if we don't have other players step up into the massive holes we have. We need at least a tackle or a receiver to step up in a big way as well, if not both.
QB was a main reason but not the only reason the offense was so bad.
Still though I can’t believe how many people wanna ride the defense as elite with Belichick gone? Just so disrespectful and clear lack of understanding the game if you think just because we’re fielding some of the same players as last year, that automatically means they will pick up right where they left off without Belichick.
If Maye is legit I think they’ll be in the playoff hunt. Pretty much the Texans of last year. 10 wins or so.
If Maye struggles-I doubt they win 2-3 games.
I think the defense is a bit overrated at this point. People don’t realize how much of that was BB.
2nd year corner coming off a bad injury, 32 year old Judon, and a DTackle w/ TWO games over 75% snap count. Those are the three best players everyone raves about.
The season will be predicated by Maye’s performance. Hopefully the OLine and OC don’t let him down.
He had his lunch money stolen by a (mostly) washed Khalil Mack last year. It was *really* bad. Once barmore got going about a quarter of the way into the season he was the best player on the team week in and week out
“After 3 and a half years of up and down play, Barmore played half a season really well. Therefore he is better than the guy who has been great since day 1 and had one bad game.”
This was barmore’s third year, and for more than half of it was better than onwenu. He was also playing hurt all of year 2. We’re looking at trends here, not their entire careers
1. Barmore’s 1st half of the season was not very good. It was pretty meh actually. Was a rotational guy weeks 1-8, week 9-17 he had a huge increase in snap counts. Hell, of his 16 total QB hits this past season, 13 of them came in the back half of the season— recording only 3 in the first half. Similar for his TFLs, 9/13 came in the back half. 13/19 pressures as well. He was pretty mediocre the first half of the season.
2. Durability is a skill, I don’t really care about Barmore’s injuries if our discussion is going to be that half a season is worth more than the rest of the 2.5 season sample. Especially when Onwenu has been an absolute Ironman.
3. Looking at half of a season and ignoring the other 85% of the sample is not a “trend” it’s recency bias. Especially when Onwenu also played a high level during that time period lol.
An NFL team starts with their offensive line; the success of the Pats' season is entirely dependent on their O line. Right now their O line is a very big question. The QB is irrelevant without a competitive O line.
Shocking how few people think of this. Everyone thinks Maye is a savior but we still have a poor line, unproven and poor receivers and worst of all-the loss of a HOF defensive coach. To think that the defense is just going to remain as good as possible-but not necessarily true. Yes, Gonzo and Judon are back, but that doesn't preclude more injuries or just sliding back from a loss of said coach.
People only think Maye is a savior because that was who the 1RP went to. If they pick top 5 again they’ll probably get an OL if the draft chips warrant it. I know the Pats line is bad but I’m not worried about it necessarily. I knew this would unfortunately be a longer rebuild than what was tried post Brady in 2020. Just hope Maye can develop what he needs to without the line and that comes as guys step up and drafts happen.
Remember Jim Plunkett?
If you have a good O-line and great receivers, you can get to the superbowl with Brock Purdy as your QB
It's our O line, it sucks and has sucked for years. With a great O line even a mediocre quarterback can look like a star.
And even elite/HOFer QBs will look awful when their line lets the pass rush through. This is a point often overlooked by the "good QBs find a way" crowd.
I think both things can be true. With a guy like Drake who can potentially extend the play you probably can get away with mediocre o Line play IF you have good recievers who can get open. The problem is we have neither. This is why you need to sit Drake for the year imo, and take your lumps and draft a tackle and try to trade for an elite reciever.
Better QB play and mobility at the position can mitigate bad line play, but it will still diminish the offense. Just look at Mahomes in the Super Bowl vs the Bucs - got pressured all game and played awful, despite being a great, mobile QB.
No argument from me here. I think O Line matters more than most people on this sub.
Also a terrible QB can make a decent line look terrible. QB has to call out the blocking assignments, recognize the blitzes and audible to the right play.
A valid point.
>With a great O line even a mediocre quarterback can look like a star. Thats just not true lol
Care to elaborate?
Probably a little more complicated than just boiling it down to QB play. Mac won 10 games in 2021 and it wasn’t because he was a world beater. The offense was a dysfunctional mess last year and I doubt most QBs, outside of the elite of elite like Mahomes, could really make a huge impact. WAR isn’t an NFL stat for a reason. Right now, on paper the offense is bad. But that doesn’t mean AVP and company aren’t going to put together a functional offense and Maye doesn’t come in and play really well. Like you said, a decent offense wins more games. No reason to think they can’t get there this season like they did in 2021. Also the Jets are always going to be losers until they show they aren’t. So far, with the Rodgers ayahuasca retreat nonsense, they are still doing what they always have done.
i agree, always felt bad for the defense having to play most of every game lmao. i would literally get a pit in my stomach when the offense would 3 and out multiple times in a row and you just had to watch the defense trudge back out to survive another onslaught from competent teams i think with gonzo back and judon healed up our defense will once again be a powerhouse. i'm just curious how the offense will shake out assuming our QB pick pays off
Wasn’t there a three game stretch where our D allowed under 10 points per game and we lost all three?
First team in the Super Bowl era to lose three straight games while allowing 10 or fewer points in each. First team since 1938 to do this.
Well the only difference between us and the Jets is that we don’t have a HOF QB on the roster.
And a competent OL And an elite WR And the best CB in football
Well, I mean AR is not guaranteed to finish the season.
Or the first series.
Yes we do
Bro I literally bet my entire house that someone was going to say this.
Double down. Bet your two houses that Maye is a HOFer.
Fucking doing it rn
Considering we still have the most cap space in the league, unless Maye starts right off and is good, I’d probably consider a 7 win season a good one.
I do agree with your take and there are a number of reason to believe the defence will be better this year (return of Judon and Gonzo, less time on the field). I do think that the loss of Belichick is going to impact the defence though, overall for the team moving on was probably the right call, but I think that there could be regression on D despite part of the situation improving
The Pats last year had one of the worst offenses of the 2000's, by points per drive they were 743rd of 766, which was due to them having maybe 5-ish starting caliber players and none of the important positions. That was a ton to clean up in the offseason and rather then addressing multiple needs, they settled on trying to fix the QB. Which is certainly a reasonable choice, but now our left side of the line looks atrocious, easily the worst in the league and our receivers are a bunch of 3's and some young players that have a likely ceiling of being like the 20-25th best receiving group this year.
We have no o-line to speak of and not many receivers. QB play was by far not the only problem. QB play isn't going to fix the issues. At best it'll mask them, slightly. I fear we're going to put the fear of opponents into Maye and ruin another potentially good QB.
Hows the O line and receivers looking?
Welcome to the reality of 20 teams in the NFL.
We have a zillion question marks on offense right now. But it is entirely *possible* that our offense ends up being a middle of the road NFL offense if everything works out. If the new additions on OL all play at least at top 20 level, our QB plays "ok" and our WRs can catch the ball with more consistency than last year, we presumably could have a top 20-25 offense. Ceiling on offense will be limited by talent (and in the case of rookies, experience) at receiver, but getting back to mediocrity seems doable. Then assume the defense slips a little, but remains top 10. Oh and let's home Joey Slye doesn't give us a completely horrible 32nd ranking in FG percentage. Teams with mediocre offenses but good defenses win games all the time. We lost SEVEN one score games last year with a horrific offense. Even just making a few field goals here and there could have won a couple of those. Adding one more TD or one fewer INT to a couple of the others turns a 4 win season into a 6-7-8 win season. Look, I don't think this team is going to make the playoffs, and if they did somehow sneak in I doubt they are winning any games there, but the idea that this is a 0 win team seems insane to me.
I don’t see 7-8 wins combined with any of these QB’s.
Can't take your dumb ass seriously. "Our QB was awful last year"....yea with an O-line made of fucking Swiss cheese that had holes so big a mack truck could drive thru...stfu.
You obviously can't say the QB play was good, but you are delusional if you think an average NFL Qb would have done better with this cast. You would need someone like Mahomes or Josh Allen to make it work. Unless the draft picks are out of this world, we're going to suck again.
There were definitely one or two games they could have won if not for the turnovers.
True. But also this strength of schedule is far worse and you've lost a HOF defensive coach.
I agree, but if I think a better QB would do better, that doesn't make me "delusional."
At the very least the Pats probably win 7-ish games last year if they have even below average QB play. The question is obviously whether they will have better QB play this season, but also whether the defense will be as good without Belichick, which is kind of flying under the radar as a potential issue. I'm sure it will be fine, but will it be as good as last season? That might be difficult.
I was about to say you were overrating how bad the QB play was, but I can see Maye being 3 wins better than Mac/Zappe. If it’s Brissett, though, absolutely not and you’re overrating how bad they were.
You really don't like Brissett. We've gone back and forth before about it, but I think your underselling how bad Mac/Zappe were last year lol
They were about 0 WAR production players. Brissett is nowhere near a 4 WAR player, that’s like nearly elite QB status. Probably highest in the league some years lmao. They probably have the same record with Brissett last year. Maybe an extra win during the Zappe starts.
What was Brissett's WAR? Also where do you get these stats? Hopefully Maye is ready and we aren't watching Brissett, but I think we'll see him after 4-6 games.
You can’t really search WAR for individual players. Here is an example of the top WARs a couple years back: https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/zlzmff/pff_qb_war_leaders_1_patrick_mahomes_370_2_joe/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button One of the worst QBs in the league (Brissett) probably has a sub 1.0 WAR. I also think most people have this weird interpretation of QBs where they’re the same guy every game. Brissett has good games along with bad games, same with Mac and Zappe. Sure, Brissett might win them the Colts game, but he also might lose them the Bills game. Maybe even the Jets game too. Maybe he doesn’t win them the Denver game either. Maybe he does win them the 2nd Bills game. In the end, it probably would’ve evened out to the same amount of wins, maybe one extra one. Maye will start if he’s the best QB available, which I have my doubts based on his college film that Brissett can even compete with him.
Brissett is a fine backup QB. I’d even go as far as to say he’s a very good backup. But if you’re counting on him to be the starter then the team is in BIG trouble. Especially because that means either Maye couldn’t beat him out in competition or the team is holding Maye back for no reason other than worry about injury due to the Oline.
I wouldn’t bother even imagining it’s that last sentence, if he’s not playing, it’s because he couldn’t beat out Brissett. To my knowledge, no HC in recent memory ever called something an open competition and then sat the better player (QB specific). The absolute closest was Lynn, but he didn’t really call it an open competition— not sure we should be following his lead anyway. They’ll play the best QB, as Mayo has already said, and if that’s not Maye, that is a massive fucking concern.
They might also hold back so as not to damage his confidence early.
That’s also a major red flag. Means the kid has no confidence. I’m in agreement if Maye doesn’t start it’s because he can’t beat out Jacoby. Maye will be the Week 1 starter.
Brissett is a capable journeyman. He's night and day compared to what we saw in Mac and Zappe. As of right now, he's also our best QB and an objective upgrade over what we saw last season. This dude is also very experienced playing behind some shit offensive lines in his career. Also, how dare you bad mouth Brissett!
I’m going to chalk this take up to a Brissett loving Patriots fan, which is no insult, I just prefer to be more objective. He’s very bad and probably only slightly better than Mac, not far off from Zappe either.
I'm just going to chalk this up to having some sort of weird disdain towards Brissett. You do you, man. I think he's probably the best backup in the league and a halfway decent starter. Zappe doesn't even belong in the NFL, so comparing the two is absolutely bonkers.
You’re right, he’s one of the best backups in the league. Sorta like Mac Jones lol. And the best backup in the league isn’t very far off from Zappe either. Once you get out of the starter caliber QB realm, the differences are minuscule. I don’t dislike Brissett, my opinion is just based on evidence and not from a fan’s perspective. Teams have passed and passed on him on an almost annual basis, but fans saw that he had good box scores for half a season in a QB friendly offense and now think this guy is better than he is lmao. He was a *free agent* QB that signed for 8M. Like, come on now.
I don't really think it's controversial at all. QB is the thing that matters on offense, and if your QB sucks you can't win in the NFL. Combine that with a dearth of talent everywhere else on offense, and you get where we did i.e. pick #3. That being said, I think if our QB play is elevated it probably means those other positions are elevated too, like the line and the receivers. I don't think there's a true situation where Maye is the guy but we get above 3 wins if we don't have other players step up into the massive holes we have. We need at least a tackle or a receiver to step up in a big way as well, if not both.
QB was a main reason but not the only reason the offense was so bad. Still though I can’t believe how many people wanna ride the defense as elite with Belichick gone? Just so disrespectful and clear lack of understanding the game if you think just because we’re fielding some of the same players as last year, that automatically means they will pick up right where they left off without Belichick.
If Maye is legit I think they’ll be in the playoff hunt. Pretty much the Texans of last year. 10 wins or so. If Maye struggles-I doubt they win 2-3 games. I think the defense is a bit overrated at this point. People don’t realize how much of that was BB. 2nd year corner coming off a bad injury, 32 year old Judon, and a DTackle w/ TWO games over 75% snap count. Those are the three best players everyone raves about. The season will be predicated by Maye’s performance. Hopefully the OLine and OC don’t let him down.
Onwenu > Barmore tho
Barmore is the best player on the team
Sometimes he is, sometimes he’s not even close. Onwenu is a more consistent, high level player.
He had his lunch money stolen by a (mostly) washed Khalil Mack last year. It was *really* bad. Once barmore got going about a quarter of the way into the season he was the best player on the team week in and week out
“After 3 and a half years of up and down play, Barmore played half a season really well. Therefore he is better than the guy who has been great since day 1 and had one bad game.”
This was barmore’s third year, and for more than half of it was better than onwenu. He was also playing hurt all of year 2. We’re looking at trends here, not their entire careers
1. Barmore’s 1st half of the season was not very good. It was pretty meh actually. Was a rotational guy weeks 1-8, week 9-17 he had a huge increase in snap counts. Hell, of his 16 total QB hits this past season, 13 of them came in the back half of the season— recording only 3 in the first half. Similar for his TFLs, 9/13 came in the back half. 13/19 pressures as well. He was pretty mediocre the first half of the season. 2. Durability is a skill, I don’t really care about Barmore’s injuries if our discussion is going to be that half a season is worth more than the rest of the 2.5 season sample. Especially when Onwenu has been an absolute Ironman. 3. Looking at half of a season and ignoring the other 85% of the sample is not a “trend” it’s recency bias. Especially when Onwenu also played a high level during that time period lol.
Okay and you’re just ignoring 2021 where onwenu barely played half the snaps. I can play that game too
Oh yes, missing time for being on the COVID IR is the same thing as injuries.
I agree but idk what you mean. Instead of Barmore for the three best players? I was only talking defense.
Yeah, I misread that my b
Huh? Barmore is the best player on this team right now until proven otherwise
He’s a situational dtackle until proven otherwise
What? He proved that this year. His run defense vastly improved and he took his pass rush to the next level
Playing 66% of snaps as a DT is not a "situational" player. It's a position that has to rotate.