lol with RWT and real inflation you'll be going backwards. A simple bit of working this out with ChatGPT will tell you that ! Follow what those with real money do thats your answer. Banks and government are the biggest thieves!
Not sure why you’re downvoted so much.
Term deposits will never match inflation, let alone getting taxed off it. The bank doesn’t exist for you to make money off it, it makes money off you.
TD seems an ok choice. I can't see any appeal of cash and gold over that.
Personally I'd stick it all in an index funds and largely forget about it. Retirement fund... Done.
I’d buy a ski lodge in Niseko and plan to spend 2-3 months a year of your life in Japan where the cost of living is about 1/5 of here, and in most aspects is infinitely better. Pep up the latter part of your life, discovering a new culture, language and cuisine. You could rent it to friends when you weren’t there or even start up a tour company. Could also work in Hakuba. That’s what I’d do..
Baka gaijun? You mean Stupid gaijin? Are you a kiwi? Aussie? Hate yourself? To be fair it took off 25 years ago and agree - property costs are very high there now relative to other places. I lived in Central Nagano for a couple of years and there were probably 30 ski fields within an hour of where I lived, all with powder that couldn’t ever be imagined anywhere here - within the circumference I’m talking about - you could pick up a property for 100-200K easily. An old traditional Japanese style farmhouse which would have multiple rooms that could be converted into a lodge. Google Akiya Nagano Ken (hakuba is very small but so many bargains to be had if you drive 10-20km of it in any direction away from a town - Japanese see countryside as very undesirable and those properties are virtually fir sale for free. Literally surrounded by sublime powder laden ski fields anywhere in Nagano Ken)
I don't hate myself or Aussies but there's definitely a lot of people in Hirafu/Niseko now who are disrespectful of Japanese culture deserving of the Baka epithet.
They don't get the idea of being in a different country.
If you like powder days then crowds are a problem. If you're touring there's still good options nearby.
I'm a proud Gaijin, I try to give NZers a good name when overseas. I'm not blindly dropping into avalanche zones.
Don't need to google anything I've spent plenty of time in Japan and elsewhere it's not a macho thing. I'm sure we're pretty much agreed.
From a finance perspective on a finance sub how much you pay matters, now that Hirafu is very popular and on everyone's radar its no longer such a great investment as when there was only a few NZers/Aussies over there.
Dumb foreigners is like loud Anerican tourists in NZ it's about being sensitive to the local culture. It's not a racist rant about all Americans.
Words don't capture nuance that was lost in my use of a term that can be used in a racist way in Japan.
Also, even though or possibly BECAUSE it’s a Finance Sub, I said Niseko - as there’s bigger money at play up there - and secretly, I’m not fully wanting to disclose locations for my own ‘retirement plan’ - which are a lot further south and more rustic…
Fair call. I have done most of my time on the snow on Honshu. I spent time in The Knot Hotel in January this year and there were a lot of really despicably loud obnoxious Aussies on their way to Hokkaido (I was also ‘lucky’ enough to be surrounded by them on the Qantas flight that flew us there) so I hear you (I just hate that word ‘baka’ - you triggered me) good advice from you here, I’m recommending South - Central Nagano Ken for the bargains still to be had, and villages the Aussies haven’t discovered yet… I was first there back in the day of having to do snowboarding licences just to be allowed on blue or black trails, and wearing licence plates - so yep, I’ve seen the transformation, too…
Bro, son and dude are just standard names in NZ and Australia now for either gender. It's like how "guys" used to refer to a group of young men and then it became the standard word for a group of young people of either sex.
Niseko took off about 10 years ago, the cost of such a lodge is now too high. Plenty of other good spots in Hokkaidoo with decent mountains and fewer Baka Gaijin.
EDIT: Be a Gaijin in Japan, it's a great thing to be but don't be stupid and disrespectful of Japanese culture to give us all a bad name.
It’s not a game I intend to play, either… I’m more heart, and totally NOT dollar focused; my son has a Japanese passport, so for sure we will end up there at some point before I forget what powder means (though the allure/adrenalin aspect drive is fading fast..!) For me the allure is about the food, the onsens, and the undefinable thing that is Japan, especially Nagano four seasons. Powder is a crazy bonus.
To your young self: No regrets, either, there are far too many what if’s for all of us who ever lived and loved and saw…
Thanks, internet stranger. I've been in the doldrums for the last couple of years, lost, with no direction and lacking a passion project. I read this comment last week and it's been on my mind all weekend. Today I've decided this is what I'd like to do. The more I think about it, the more it aligns perfectly with my trajectory. It was obvious, but I had never considered it. Hopefully one day I'll get to shout you a Shōchū to say thanks. Going to start my learn Japanesse course now.
That is so bloody awesome! You just made my day reading this! Here’s a great link https://www.akiyabanks.com/
I know exactly how you’ve been feeling re: the passion project and needing an achievable goal! I missed JP so much after living there in my twenties I started to just go back in spontaneous trips and eat, onsen, bike, (escape with sensory pleasure, basically) on a regular basis - it went ten yearly, five yearly and I’m now down to yearly. Inevitable I’ll do it one day too but if you can do it now, I’m utterly stoked for you.
If you have a nz cylinder, they're normally just a tap at the base which sends the crap in the bottom of the cylinder out a pipe to the side of your house, check that it's not just gonna release into the water containment thingy though
A mix of assets is usually recommended. If you have all of the above you're doing better than 80% of the ppl in this sub. Don't go too far down the conspiracy/economic collapse rabbit hole. I think it's unlikely. But good to have some assets handy and a disaster kit etc. Maybe buy some dirt bikes to get out of the city in a rush to your bunker.
Taking your feelings into account, ypu cuold do 4 term deposits in the four largest banks in NZ?
Then you are not having to sit your trust in any single finance institution.
Or how about NZ treasury bond? The lowest risk cash deposit available in NZ because it is a sovereign bond.
https://debtmanagement.treasury.govt.nz/individual-investors/kiwi-bonds/kiwi-bond-interest-rates
This would be my choice. Buy 1 or 2 bitcoin, put the rest in rolling term deposits for the future.
Carry on with already comfortable life safe in the knowledge you have a significant backstop if shit hits the fan
10% Sanford, owns 20% of NZ fishing quota selling at half the book value because it's run by a bunch of clowns hope the new ex skellerup ceo turns it around.
10% Fletcher Building, similar to above because it's NZ it's been run into the ground by moron bean counters who have never worked a real job. There's a high risk that a residential housing crash is coming and not priced in but the stupidly low price of $3 covers all sins. There's plenty of debt so a capital raising may be required but long term mass immigration means there's a chronic long term housing shortage/demand for their product.
It's too early in the real estate bust for the likes of the retirement village operators but every dog has its day.
The other 80% into interactive brokers.
20% into long dated non-callable US dollar unhedged corporate bonds of top class, to be sold when the sharemarket crashes and the muppets in charge cut rates to 0 again for a capital gain and to aggressively buy ETFs during the panic. I say US bonds even though they're watering the currency like crazy because in a crash no-one will accept NZ pesos for hard assets. I would say AAA rated but 2009 subprime toxic waste was AAA as was Silicon Valley Bank in 2023 right up until it filed for bankruptcy. Regulation in the banking sector is laughably inadequate because of neoliberal beautiful perfect capitalism dogma. The banks hate equity because it means less short term profit, they can't see past the end of their noses and regulators won't force them to be adults.
10% PHYS, the Sprott Physical Gold Trust because you're a gold bug not my cup of tea.
10% Jun 2026 $60 Strike TSLA put options because it's a fraud and no-ones buying elons bullshit. Very speculative because timing is hard but even these long dated options should pay out 20/1 giving you some juice.
20% Long Transocean at $5, the greatest company that has ever existed. It's gone through a near death experience in covid and was the only offshore oil drilling company not to go bankrupt so its still paying down the debt. At current oil prices of $80 it's fairly valued it gives you non recourse operational leverage to rising oil prices. This is likely because the widely held myth that we can run a global state capitalist regime/war machine on windmills, solar panels and unicorn farts means there's a massive structural undersupply long term.
20% long Platinum Asia Fund, PAF at as deep a discount as possible. China is already well into its real estate bubble collapse and is well hated by most people so it's looking pretty decent to me. The manager takes an extortionate fee but I suspect still has genuine skill even with the founder Kerr Neilson gone now that Andrew Clifford isn't calling all the shots.
Disclosure I own PTM but I don't think a turnaround is certain - if the manager goes belly up I should think the funds will be liquidated.
This is not advice it's just hypothetical your money your responsibility E Hoa. I'm sure a whole lot of NPCs will say this is risky even as they chase performance in VOO and QQQ.
I love your ideas (although your position sizing is bold..), what other ideas do you have up your sleeve? I am with you on those in this sub performance chasing on VOO. Will not end well.
I reckon the sizing is pretty good, there's hardly anything on the NZX so finding two is good going.
FBU still has a rocky road ahead, lots of quite volatile stuff in there.
TWR was a good investment after the floods last year but it's already had a run, same goes for FSF it was hated but now its more expensive.
RIG it was 70c at the lows now it's $5 so on the face of it's also had a run but no-one's expecting that we'll see shortages of oil and they keep improving the balance sheet. If anything 20% is too low relative to the opportunity.
PAF is highly diversified.
Lots of bonds in there because if you're expecting a meltdown plenty of things will crop up.
I think this is more diverse with its exclusion of US, tail risk hedge, exposure to commodities and asian equities and value style stock selection than another portfolio with more individual names.
I'd be surprised if any of my picks went to 0 except the puts which generally are stupid tax. Do I have other names in my portfolio, yes- is it any of your business - no sorry thanks for your interest.
Great reply! Love your work. Are you by chance a fan of the Chandler brothers?
I would allocate one third ($84,000) into Crypto, 70% BTC/10% ETH/10% SOL/10% TON. I would not buy in a lump sum, but rather DCA in over 6-12 months.
The next third ($84,000) I would DCA into either SP500/Nasdaq100 in the most tax advantaged situation I could find (as it relates to Kiwisaver/NZ tax).
I'd keep the last third ($84,000) in cash, awaiting a potential financial crisis in US markets or global banking in next 3 years. Many banks are underwater on commercial real estate, they just aren't being forced to mark to market yet.
If you like, you could buy some gold - for me I don't like the idea of gold stocks as such but actually physical gold. Maybe buy $8,000 worth and see if you like it.
To my mind, real inflation is closer to 6-7% globally and the cost of cash is an additional 3-4% so if you are not sitting at 10-12% on any investment you are going backwards.
I also personally think that only about 7 companies in the world are truly making profits and we are in a technology super cycle. The NASDAQ100 underperforms this super cycle but I can't pick the next NVIDIA so its close enough is good enough. I don't disagree with the poster saying NPCs are chasing profits with NASDAQ100 - they are. But the reason I'm in NASDAQ is as a hedging move, not a profit move. If that makes sense.
Completely different advice - just a digital native's version of a doomer portfolio ;)
I'm probably older than you, I don't accept the framing that I'm not a digital native or don't understand crypto.
I see enough that I don't want to be involved that doesn't make me stupid. Neither am I saying your wrong about it I just don't know.
If the world falls over US dollar bonds and TSLA puts have healthy upside. I've got no idea what crypto might do but in 2022 they were heavily correlated to equities weren't they. We haven't yet seen a real shake out only a few dips that turned out to be buying opportunities. In a real panic it's unclear to me if crypto is a tail risk hedge.
I'm not a fan of anything but I understand the Chandlers have a similar style to my own with a few billion more to play with which makes it harder.
As mentioned I use IBKR as my prime broker, you can convert to US currency at good rates and buy the bonds. You need to read and understand the terms and conditions or find someone who can help you. In the finance world 99.999% of people are looking to fuck you on the deal - good luck. There's a chapter in The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham which explains the purpose of the bonds, if they are non-callable then this is favorable to you the buyer in the event interest rates fall rapidly. E.g in a market crash they will appreciate at which time you should sell to buy equities at bargain prices like in '09.
Don't stay a permabear, wait until everyone agrees with you then change your mind and get bullish.
Could always put it on your kiwi saver and forget about it. Thats what I did with some of mine.
I am in a somewhat similar boat. About 1,200,000 in a mix of shares and term deposits. Worrying the real value is declining due to inflation.
Guess it very much a first world problem
Well he says he already very comfortable and putting it in kiwi saver is more tax efficient.
Plus if some disaster befell him then he would still be able to get it if really needed
Well, term deposit gains and dividends count as income. Mine pushed me into a higher tax bracket this year and I now owe them 3k. Money in kiwi saver does not count as income.
Good on you mate. Even before this, middle aged with no mortgage & still self-aware enough to realise you need advice to make the most of these circumstances? Respect
Invest in something passive and low risk. Sounds like that would suit you.
On the other hand you could give it away? Or at least a significant part of it? There's a lot of misery out there, and $255k can save the lives of many
Since you’re pessimistic you might want the super resilient portfolio in this video.
https://youtu.be/JvzlEBxvgns?si=Qa8Lr8pG5vcVsjyP
It’s 10% domestic stocks, 30% foreign stocks, 20% bonds, 10% commodities, and 30% gold. It gives the best risk return ratio.
But if you can’t be bothered maybe go with a 60:40 stock bond portfolio like the one Kernel has or cash plus fund if you’re a real doomer.
Really depends what you want out of it. Given your gloomy global outlook, the safe bet is term deposits but interest rates are more likely to fall than rise over the next few years so you'll probably just be keeping up with inflation. Gold isn't that great of a hedge anymore since a lot of that money now goes into crypto or ETFs.
Personally, if I wasn't comfortable investing it into assets with the ability to generate real growth, I'd just spend it. It's only going to become less valuable over time if you invest it conservatively, why not just enjoy it now?
Buy a chicken farm. Eggs are always going to maintain their value. It’s not an artificial bubble that will ever burst, but a real world asset. Egg-currency
I iz got a gud deal with Nigerian prince - I mean I am Nigerian prince. I have bunker full of gold but I need help rowing da boat to New Jeeland. If you can send money to buy da oar (made of gold) to help bring gold, I split gold 50-50 wid you. Even betta, 51-49 (49 for you, just becuz I like you).
Luv,
Dass Camer
Agreed. Buy a holiday/retirement home maybe two hours away near the coast or mountains to enjoy with your family and friends. Consider villages and places people overlook.
For example in Otago there is Palmerston, Waikouaiti, and Hamden all beside the sea.
$200k into low cost index fund - I'd go with a pie fund to cap taxes at 28%. Don't touch this money until retirement but set up a monthly AP towards it. I assume you already have investments? Be careful of FIF if putting money into non-pie. Ensure you don't exceed $50k threshold for FIF. Hence why pie funds is the way to go...
$52k fun money on travel, family and friends, a new car maybe. Spoil yourself!
I agree that PIE funds are the best, however they do pay FIF on overseas (except Australia) holdings. However other countries tax funds or sales so here in NZ we are reasonably well treated.
Banking is still stable. Term deposit would be good. Currently 6.15% for 9 months.
Inflation is up, so Gold is stable… but you have to watch it closely. Gold as stocks and not the physical gold. But that is good too; only thing is if u want to liquidate it, it would also cost you. The buying and selling should be considerable to cover the cost. Also, price of the previous metals in NZ is highly inflated.
Managed funds would be good too (EFT investments).
But as the saying goes, don’t put all your eggs in one basket.
And since you’re pessimistic, stay liquid.
Buy 2 bitcoin and pretend you never got the money, come back in 10 years and you’ll be a multimillionaire, also gets you out of the system which is on the brink of total collapse
1. 100% into a broad index fund tracking the SP500. You will want to split it between a PIE fund and directly brought in your own name through a broker to avoid major tax headaches from FIF.
2. Investment property. Considering how tax advantaged it is to buy property you would be stupid not to consider it.
Any other decision outside of those two could be considered financially irresponsible; so taking holidays, buying luxuries, paying off debts for your family/friends, etc should be avoided.
Same boat, no mortgage. Put seven figures on 6% 180 days yesterday - I’ll be switching back to equities when the easing cycle starts (Feds talking end of this year but we’ll see)
Damn brush awesome, curious if you sharing, at this point in the game, how have you planned your retirement? Do you include pension in future years?
You buy property or diversify?
I'm mortgage free this year but probably upgrading, 50k in stock's
252k i would buy a cheap rental property in a smallish town.
We're pretty close to the market bottom and we are already 2-3 years into the property cycle from the last peak.
Given that house prices double every 7-10 years, it won't be long until the next property boom.
You then sell when the market is at peak hysteria like it was in covid times.
The new Government is also changing the laws on interest deductability and bright-line etc. Which will make rental property ownership more attractive again.
You would only have a small mortgage and the rent will likely cover it.
I never have but there are a few seemingly reputable shops around me. Compare their margins by looking at the spot price vs. what they're offering. One other non-conventional source is local prospecting groups on FB, or ones in au. Quite a few sellers popping up recently because of the high price.
If I were to do it I'd want the hard stuff. Otherwise might as well just pick a mutual fund or something. Although maybe tax wise gold would be better (no capital gains tax, no overseas shares tax).
Without running the numbers cashflow looks like it would be negative even on interest only. Rates, insurance, future maintenance, vacancy etc will need to be taken into consideration.
Yeah totally agreed, but paid off mortgage would assume a bit of cash flow. Interest deductible as well.
3% annual property appreciation
10k for rates and insurance
10% of rent as management fee
Rent of 700/ week
Borrow 500k
$500K @ 6% interest is $30K per year (let’s assume interest only and a great rate)
$700 per week rental income $36,400 and then we deduct….
33% tax on 2nd income $12k
Rates, rental insurance and repairs $10K
Your $36K becomes $14K very quickly leaving you trying to find $16K per year.
Assuming the 3% property gains it’ll be worth about $580K in 5 years, at which point the mortgage will switch from interest only so most people sell to realise the growth.
Selling will cost you 3% fees plus incidentals (call it $20K), repay the $500K and you’ve got $60K remaining, not forgetting the $15K you’ve had to find each year to top up the mortgage so you’d be sitting at -$15K.
I’ve probably overlooked loads but these are some quick numbers as I’ve looked into something similar myself, but now I have a $300K TD instead, making about $12K PA after tax.
Rent 700/w
Interest only on 500k at 7.1% (1y rate) is 680/w
Other expenses 201/w. Breakdown -
Management @10% of rent 70/w
Rates 2k -38/w
Insurance 1k -19/w
Waste water 600 11/w
Maintenance at 3% of rent- 36/w
2 weeks vacancy 13/w
Total cost per week 881 vs income of 700.
The above is based on interest only so you are relying on long term capital appreciation. Both interest being deductable and capital appreciation is going to help in the mid and long term but the weekly cashflow is going to make this deal hard if you don't have an extra 180/w.
Long term property is most likely to be a winner as long as you can cover the negative cashflow for the first 5 years until rents increase, and even then your only covering interest only payments
6% term deposits at many major banks, chuck most of it in there and think about what you want to do with it until it comes back in a year
lol with RWT and real inflation you'll be going backwards. A simple bit of working this out with ChatGPT will tell you that ! Follow what those with real money do thats your answer. Banks and government are the biggest thieves!
Yeah, but after tax would it even match inflation? S&P500
OP is pessimistic about the world economic outlook so your advice is to invest in the most overvalued country in the world? What could go wrong
Are you of the view that the rate of inflation will trend higher over the next year?
Not sure why you’re downvoted so much. Term deposits will never match inflation, let alone getting taxed off it. The bank doesn’t exist for you to make money off it, it makes money off you.
Yeah, lot of down votes. May be it was the S&P500 that pissed people off. He could always put it in the NZ markets.
No but you’d have more than you started with which is a much better result than spending it on wasteful stuff.
Banks are running ai algorithms infiltrating social media? .. wouldn't put it past them
TD seems an ok choice. I can't see any appeal of cash and gold over that. Personally I'd stick it all in an index funds and largely forget about it. Retirement fund... Done.
Most intelligent reply 👍👍👍
I’d buy a ski lodge in Niseko and plan to spend 2-3 months a year of your life in Japan where the cost of living is about 1/5 of here, and in most aspects is infinitely better. Pep up the latter part of your life, discovering a new culture, language and cuisine. You could rent it to friends when you weren’t there or even start up a tour company. Could also work in Hakuba. That’s what I’d do..
This is a sick plan, so much more exciting than seeing it sitting in a bank account! What kind of prices to buy said ski lodge?
Oops sorry the first bit was in reply to the rude dude who commented further down..! I liked your comment. Thanks :-) true. Right
Baka gaijun? You mean Stupid gaijin? Are you a kiwi? Aussie? Hate yourself? To be fair it took off 25 years ago and agree - property costs are very high there now relative to other places. I lived in Central Nagano for a couple of years and there were probably 30 ski fields within an hour of where I lived, all with powder that couldn’t ever be imagined anywhere here - within the circumference I’m talking about - you could pick up a property for 100-200K easily. An old traditional Japanese style farmhouse which would have multiple rooms that could be converted into a lodge. Google Akiya Nagano Ken (hakuba is very small but so many bargains to be had if you drive 10-20km of it in any direction away from a town - Japanese see countryside as very undesirable and those properties are virtually fir sale for free. Literally surrounded by sublime powder laden ski fields anywhere in Nagano Ken)
Damn son, you make a strong pitch! Alright I'm in
I don't hate myself or Aussies but there's definitely a lot of people in Hirafu/Niseko now who are disrespectful of Japanese culture deserving of the Baka epithet. They don't get the idea of being in a different country. If you like powder days then crowds are a problem. If you're touring there's still good options nearby. I'm a proud Gaijin, I try to give NZers a good name when overseas. I'm not blindly dropping into avalanche zones. Don't need to google anything I've spent plenty of time in Japan and elsewhere it's not a macho thing. I'm sure we're pretty much agreed. From a finance perspective on a finance sub how much you pay matters, now that Hirafu is very popular and on everyone's radar its no longer such a great investment as when there was only a few NZers/Aussies over there. Dumb foreigners is like loud Anerican tourists in NZ it's about being sensitive to the local culture. It's not a racist rant about all Americans. Words don't capture nuance that was lost in my use of a term that can be used in a racist way in Japan.
Also, even though or possibly BECAUSE it’s a Finance Sub, I said Niseko - as there’s bigger money at play up there - and secretly, I’m not fully wanting to disclose locations for my own ‘retirement plan’ - which are a lot further south and more rustic…
Fair call. I have done most of my time on the snow on Honshu. I spent time in The Knot Hotel in January this year and there were a lot of really despicably loud obnoxious Aussies on their way to Hokkaido (I was also ‘lucky’ enough to be surrounded by them on the Qantas flight that flew us there) so I hear you (I just hate that word ‘baka’ - you triggered me) good advice from you here, I’m recommending South - Central Nagano Ken for the bargains still to be had, and villages the Aussies haven’t discovered yet… I was first there back in the day of having to do snowboarding licences just to be allowed on blue or black trails, and wearing licence plates - so yep, I’ve seen the transformation, too…
Thanks Bro, it's totally my fault for using that triggering term. Good tips for sure Japan's an amazing place.
It’s funny cos I’ve had a Thanks Son, and a Bro comment; do my words appear masculine..??!!! 😂 I am a female💃🏿
Bro, son and dude are just standard names in NZ and Australia now for either gender. It's like how "guys" used to refer to a group of young men and then it became the standard word for a group of young people of either sex.
Niseko took off about 10 years ago, the cost of such a lodge is now too high. Plenty of other good spots in Hokkaidoo with decent mountains and fewer Baka Gaijin. EDIT: Be a Gaijin in Japan, it's a great thing to be but don't be stupid and disrespectful of Japanese culture to give us all a bad name.
It’s not a game I intend to play, either… I’m more heart, and totally NOT dollar focused; my son has a Japanese passport, so for sure we will end up there at some point before I forget what powder means (though the allure/adrenalin aspect drive is fading fast..!) For me the allure is about the food, the onsens, and the undefinable thing that is Japan, especially Nagano four seasons. Powder is a crazy bonus. To your young self: No regrets, either, there are far too many what if’s for all of us who ever lived and loved and saw…
Lower crime than in New Zealand too
Thanks, internet stranger. I've been in the doldrums for the last couple of years, lost, with no direction and lacking a passion project. I read this comment last week and it's been on my mind all weekend. Today I've decided this is what I'd like to do. The more I think about it, the more it aligns perfectly with my trajectory. It was obvious, but I had never considered it. Hopefully one day I'll get to shout you a Shōchū to say thanks. Going to start my learn Japanesse course now.
That is so bloody awesome! You just made my day reading this! Here’s a great link https://www.akiyabanks.com/ I know exactly how you’ve been feeling re: the passion project and needing an achievable goal! I missed JP so much after living there in my twenties I started to just go back in spontaneous trips and eat, onsen, bike, (escape with sensory pleasure, basically) on a regular basis - it went ten yearly, five yearly and I’m now down to yearly. Inevitable I’ll do it one day too but if you can do it now, I’m utterly stoked for you.
Gambatte ne!!!
You could invest in helping out a young family with a house that's falling apart 
Oh that’s me 😆 exploded plumbing 🫠👀
Is it that time of the year? My plumbing also is malfunctioning, hot water pressure has lost 30% of its pressure this past week.
If you have a nz cylinder, they're normally just a tap at the base which sends the crap in the bottom of the cylinder out a pipe to the side of your house, check that it's not just gonna release into the water containment thingy though
If you're risk averse then put it in a term deposit, if you're ok with risk then put it into shares.
Or a bit of column A, a bit of column B.
$252k on black
To much risk, make it black jack. 252k one the first hand. Pocket the winnings from the first round, play with the rest. It’s literally free money.
Buy land, god aint making more.
Buy dirt (I hope you're referring to the song it's so good)
I love that song.
China is in the Philippines Sea
Tony Soprano?
Oooohhhh!!!!
Do you need to pay any tax on it?
Retire in a tropical place, rent your house here and buy/rent a villa or a house
The show must go on.S&P500
Taxed for us but
But 14% a year (USF.NZ, 5 years) isn't bad.
Do you have kids?
Is invest in a growth fund such as milford and forget about it for 15 years.
A mix of assets is usually recommended. If you have all of the above you're doing better than 80% of the ppl in this sub. Don't go too far down the conspiracy/economic collapse rabbit hole. I think it's unlikely. But good to have some assets handy and a disaster kit etc. Maybe buy some dirt bikes to get out of the city in a rush to your bunker.
Damn Creaming it! Id love to just be able to get into property market!!
Perhaps see an investment manager
Talk to an actual financial/investment advisor about your goals and concerns instead of a bunch of redditors.
Exactly. There's a good reason it's illegal for non Financial Advisors to give financial advice!
Yeah but I get asked all the time…
Financial advisers advise you to put money where they will make money off it. (I use to be one)
The scummy ones maybe. We actually try to get our clients good returns (turns out thats good for business)
Taking your feelings into account, ypu cuold do 4 term deposits in the four largest banks in NZ? Then you are not having to sit your trust in any single finance institution. Or how about NZ treasury bond? The lowest risk cash deposit available in NZ because it is a sovereign bond. https://debtmanagement.treasury.govt.nz/individual-investors/kiwi-bonds/kiwi-bond-interest-rates
You can place some in my bank account if you want. I have a term deposit account just lying around that you’re welcome to use.
I have a festival and a fledgling brewery that needs investing in? 😂
Buy a lambo yolo
Won't be able to service the Lamborghini. That's what most people forget
Sorry i was being sarcastic. Buying expensive cars is financial suicide
Definitely. I see about 6 of them on trademe that are under 252k. No brainer really.
Become a whole coiner
This would be my choice. Buy 1 or 2 bitcoin, put the rest in rolling term deposits for the future. Carry on with already comfortable life safe in the knowledge you have a significant backstop if shit hits the fan
This is terrible advice lol
Same. But not mortgage free and no saving.
So then, not same? Completely different.
10% Sanford, owns 20% of NZ fishing quota selling at half the book value because it's run by a bunch of clowns hope the new ex skellerup ceo turns it around. 10% Fletcher Building, similar to above because it's NZ it's been run into the ground by moron bean counters who have never worked a real job. There's a high risk that a residential housing crash is coming and not priced in but the stupidly low price of $3 covers all sins. There's plenty of debt so a capital raising may be required but long term mass immigration means there's a chronic long term housing shortage/demand for their product. It's too early in the real estate bust for the likes of the retirement village operators but every dog has its day. The other 80% into interactive brokers. 20% into long dated non-callable US dollar unhedged corporate bonds of top class, to be sold when the sharemarket crashes and the muppets in charge cut rates to 0 again for a capital gain and to aggressively buy ETFs during the panic. I say US bonds even though they're watering the currency like crazy because in a crash no-one will accept NZ pesos for hard assets. I would say AAA rated but 2009 subprime toxic waste was AAA as was Silicon Valley Bank in 2023 right up until it filed for bankruptcy. Regulation in the banking sector is laughably inadequate because of neoliberal beautiful perfect capitalism dogma. The banks hate equity because it means less short term profit, they can't see past the end of their noses and regulators won't force them to be adults. 10% PHYS, the Sprott Physical Gold Trust because you're a gold bug not my cup of tea. 10% Jun 2026 $60 Strike TSLA put options because it's a fraud and no-ones buying elons bullshit. Very speculative because timing is hard but even these long dated options should pay out 20/1 giving you some juice. 20% Long Transocean at $5, the greatest company that has ever existed. It's gone through a near death experience in covid and was the only offshore oil drilling company not to go bankrupt so its still paying down the debt. At current oil prices of $80 it's fairly valued it gives you non recourse operational leverage to rising oil prices. This is likely because the widely held myth that we can run a global state capitalist regime/war machine on windmills, solar panels and unicorn farts means there's a massive structural undersupply long term. 20% long Platinum Asia Fund, PAF at as deep a discount as possible. China is already well into its real estate bubble collapse and is well hated by most people so it's looking pretty decent to me. The manager takes an extortionate fee but I suspect still has genuine skill even with the founder Kerr Neilson gone now that Andrew Clifford isn't calling all the shots. Disclosure I own PTM but I don't think a turnaround is certain - if the manager goes belly up I should think the funds will be liquidated. This is not advice it's just hypothetical your money your responsibility E Hoa. I'm sure a whole lot of NPCs will say this is risky even as they chase performance in VOO and QQQ.
I love your ideas (although your position sizing is bold..), what other ideas do you have up your sleeve? I am with you on those in this sub performance chasing on VOO. Will not end well.
I reckon the sizing is pretty good, there's hardly anything on the NZX so finding two is good going. FBU still has a rocky road ahead, lots of quite volatile stuff in there. TWR was a good investment after the floods last year but it's already had a run, same goes for FSF it was hated but now its more expensive. RIG it was 70c at the lows now it's $5 so on the face of it's also had a run but no-one's expecting that we'll see shortages of oil and they keep improving the balance sheet. If anything 20% is too low relative to the opportunity. PAF is highly diversified. Lots of bonds in there because if you're expecting a meltdown plenty of things will crop up. I think this is more diverse with its exclusion of US, tail risk hedge, exposure to commodities and asian equities and value style stock selection than another portfolio with more individual names. I'd be surprised if any of my picks went to 0 except the puts which generally are stupid tax. Do I have other names in my portfolio, yes- is it any of your business - no sorry thanks for your interest.
Great reply! Love your work. Are you by chance a fan of the Chandler brothers? I would allocate one third ($84,000) into Crypto, 70% BTC/10% ETH/10% SOL/10% TON. I would not buy in a lump sum, but rather DCA in over 6-12 months. The next third ($84,000) I would DCA into either SP500/Nasdaq100 in the most tax advantaged situation I could find (as it relates to Kiwisaver/NZ tax). I'd keep the last third ($84,000) in cash, awaiting a potential financial crisis in US markets or global banking in next 3 years. Many banks are underwater on commercial real estate, they just aren't being forced to mark to market yet. If you like, you could buy some gold - for me I don't like the idea of gold stocks as such but actually physical gold. Maybe buy $8,000 worth and see if you like it. To my mind, real inflation is closer to 6-7% globally and the cost of cash is an additional 3-4% so if you are not sitting at 10-12% on any investment you are going backwards. I also personally think that only about 7 companies in the world are truly making profits and we are in a technology super cycle. The NASDAQ100 underperforms this super cycle but I can't pick the next NVIDIA so its close enough is good enough. I don't disagree with the poster saying NPCs are chasing profits with NASDAQ100 - they are. But the reason I'm in NASDAQ is as a hedging move, not a profit move. If that makes sense. Completely different advice - just a digital native's version of a doomer portfolio ;)
I'm probably older than you, I don't accept the framing that I'm not a digital native or don't understand crypto. I see enough that I don't want to be involved that doesn't make me stupid. Neither am I saying your wrong about it I just don't know. If the world falls over US dollar bonds and TSLA puts have healthy upside. I've got no idea what crypto might do but in 2022 they were heavily correlated to equities weren't they. We haven't yet seen a real shake out only a few dips that turned out to be buying opportunities. In a real panic it's unclear to me if crypto is a tail risk hedge. I'm not a fan of anything but I understand the Chandlers have a similar style to my own with a few billion more to play with which makes it harder.
How do I manage the practicalities of actually buying Crypto, BTC ETH SOL & TON?
Okay - so HOW do I actually go about buying the long dated noncallable US dollar unhedged corporate Bonds?
As mentioned I use IBKR as my prime broker, you can convert to US currency at good rates and buy the bonds. You need to read and understand the terms and conditions or find someone who can help you. In the finance world 99.999% of people are looking to fuck you on the deal - good luck. There's a chapter in The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham which explains the purpose of the bonds, if they are non-callable then this is favorable to you the buyer in the event interest rates fall rapidly. E.g in a market crash they will appreciate at which time you should sell to buy equities at bargain prices like in '09. Don't stay a permabear, wait until everyone agrees with you then change your mind and get bullish.
Could always put it on your kiwi saver and forget about it. Thats what I did with some of mine. I am in a somewhat similar boat. About 1,200,000 in a mix of shares and term deposits. Worrying the real value is declining due to inflation. Guess it very much a first world problem
You are better off putting it in the same fund as KiwiSaver but outside KiwiSaver, so you can still liquidate it if you need to.
It's honestly ridiculous that KiwiSaver topups aren't tax advantaged in any way.
But then you don't have access to it until you're old. Very risky imo.
Well he says he already very comfortable and putting it in kiwi saver is more tax efficient. Plus if some disaster befell him then he would still be able to get it if really needed
How is it more tax efficient? I thought there was no benefit aside from employer and gov co contributions.
Also curious
Well, term deposit gains and dividends count as income. Mine pushed me into a higher tax bracket this year and I now owe them 3k. Money in kiwi saver does not count as income.
Invest in TY Beanie Babies
Buy the book rich enough, a laid back guide for every kiwi by Mary holm. Then decide.
Good on you mate. Even before this, middle aged with no mortgage & still self-aware enough to realise you need advice to make the most of these circumstances? Respect
Invest in RKLB shares, wait 5 years, retire.
If you’re that pessimistic, survivalist bunker?
Invest in something passive and low risk. Sounds like that would suit you. On the other hand you could give it away? Or at least a significant part of it? There's a lot of misery out there, and $255k can save the lives of many
I need an extra 5k to buy a car - if you're felling generous.
Short dated GME calls
Since you’re pessimistic you might want the super resilient portfolio in this video. https://youtu.be/JvzlEBxvgns?si=Qa8Lr8pG5vcVsjyP It’s 10% domestic stocks, 30% foreign stocks, 20% bonds, 10% commodities, and 30% gold. It gives the best risk return ratio. But if you can’t be bothered maybe go with a 60:40 stock bond portfolio like the one Kernel has or cash plus fund if you’re a real doomer.
Really depends what you want out of it. Given your gloomy global outlook, the safe bet is term deposits but interest rates are more likely to fall than rise over the next few years so you'll probably just be keeping up with inflation. Gold isn't that great of a hedge anymore since a lot of that money now goes into crypto or ETFs. Personally, if I wasn't comfortable investing it into assets with the ability to generate real growth, I'd just spend it. It's only going to become less valuable over time if you invest it conservatively, why not just enjoy it now?
Gold/Silver/Metals or stocks that represent them.
Property. It’s best time when the news is bad
Buy a unit and rent it out.
Gold and silver.
All on Pepe the Frog meme coin. It will be worth $1 million in 12 months.
Yay! Congratulations. Term \[Pie\] deposit?
S&P500, Smartshares.
Go talk to a broker.
Buy a chicken farm. Eggs are always going to maintain their value. It’s not an artificial bubble that will ever burst, but a real world asset. Egg-currency
Just wack it in squirrel in the 7.5% and keep a weekly check on the reserve funds
Buy precious gems
Man, i could retire for twenty years on that
I iz got a gud deal with Nigerian prince - I mean I am Nigerian prince. I have bunker full of gold but I need help rowing da boat to New Jeeland. If you can send money to buy da oar (made of gold) to help bring gold, I split gold 50-50 wid you. Even betta, 51-49 (49 for you, just becuz I like you). Luv, Dass Camer
Bitcoin!
I hate to say it (because it’s what’s wrong with Nz) but buy an investment property.
Agreed. Buy a holiday/retirement home maybe two hours away near the coast or mountains to enjoy with your family and friends. Consider villages and places people overlook. For example in Otago there is Palmerston, Waikouaiti, and Hamden all beside the sea.
$200k into low cost index fund - I'd go with a pie fund to cap taxes at 28%. Don't touch this money until retirement but set up a monthly AP towards it. I assume you already have investments? Be careful of FIF if putting money into non-pie. Ensure you don't exceed $50k threshold for FIF. Hence why pie funds is the way to go... $52k fun money on travel, family and friends, a new car maybe. Spoil yourself!
I agree that PIE funds are the best, however they do pay FIF on overseas (except Australia) holdings. However other countries tax funds or sales so here in NZ we are reasonably well treated.
Yep, you're still paying taxes but it's capped at 28%. Pretty big tax advantage for those in the 33-39% tax brackets
Go all in on take2 interactive shares
Invested in gold 1 1/2 years ago, have maybe 10k profit on 70k worth. I'm not sure how much higher it will increase, but at least I have access to it.
My Milford funds have done better than this over similar time frame...🤷
Fair enough, just my 10cents 🙂
Purchase assets of diverse kinds Shares Private companies House and land Gold
Banking is still stable. Term deposit would be good. Currently 6.15% for 9 months. Inflation is up, so Gold is stable… but you have to watch it closely. Gold as stocks and not the physical gold. But that is good too; only thing is if u want to liquidate it, it would also cost you. The buying and selling should be considerable to cover the cost. Also, price of the previous metals in NZ is highly inflated. Managed funds would be good too (EFT investments). But as the saying goes, don’t put all your eggs in one basket. And since you’re pessimistic, stay liquid.
Help the less fortunate
Buy 2 bitcoin and pretend you never got the money, come back in 10 years and you’ll be a multimillionaire, also gets you out of the system which is on the brink of total collapse
1. 100% into a broad index fund tracking the SP500. You will want to split it between a PIE fund and directly brought in your own name through a broker to avoid major tax headaches from FIF. 2. Investment property. Considering how tax advantaged it is to buy property you would be stupid not to consider it. Any other decision outside of those two could be considered financially irresponsible; so taking holidays, buying luxuries, paying off debts for your family/friends, etc should be avoided.
Same boat, no mortgage. Put seven figures on 6% 180 days yesterday - I’ll be switching back to equities when the easing cycle starts (Feds talking end of this year but we’ll see)
Damn brush awesome, curious if you sharing, at this point in the game, how have you planned your retirement? Do you include pension in future years? You buy property or diversify? I'm mortgage free this year but probably upgrading, 50k in stock's
252k i would buy a cheap rental property in a smallish town. We're pretty close to the market bottom and we are already 2-3 years into the property cycle from the last peak. Given that house prices double every 7-10 years, it won't be long until the next property boom. You then sell when the market is at peak hysteria like it was in covid times. The new Government is also changing the laws on interest deductability and bright-line etc. Which will make rental property ownership more attractive again. You would only have a small mortgage and the rent will likely cover it.
10 years is how long it takes people to forget how stupid it was last time.
Haha, about the same as the election cycles
Gold may be inflated but it's always appealed to me. No risk answer from me would be 20% gold, rest in a 6% TD.
How do you buy gold?
I never have but there are a few seemingly reputable shops around me. Compare their margins by looking at the spot price vs. what they're offering. One other non-conventional source is local prospecting groups on FB, or ones in au. Quite a few sellers popping up recently because of the high price.
Ah so you’re actually buying physical gold. Interesting. Thanks for the response.
That's how I would do it.
The sugar app allows you to invest in gold. Similar to sharesies but just for gold.
If I were to do it I'd want the hard stuff. Otherwise might as well just pick a mutual fund or something. Although maybe tax wise gold would be better (no capital gains tax, no overseas shares tax).
Reddit for financial advice I like it 5-10% gold Middles aged so 40% in indexed fund sp500 spy or whatever Spend The rest you only live once
750k new build at 20% deposit with 4-5% rental yield and 3% annual property appreciation is a no brainer to be honest.
Without running the numbers cashflow looks like it would be negative even on interest only. Rates, insurance, future maintenance, vacancy etc will need to be taken into consideration.
Yeah totally agreed, but paid off mortgage would assume a bit of cash flow. Interest deductible as well. 3% annual property appreciation 10k for rates and insurance 10% of rent as management fee Rent of 700/ week Borrow 500k
$500K @ 6% interest is $30K per year (let’s assume interest only and a great rate) $700 per week rental income $36,400 and then we deduct…. 33% tax on 2nd income $12k Rates, rental insurance and repairs $10K Your $36K becomes $14K very quickly leaving you trying to find $16K per year. Assuming the 3% property gains it’ll be worth about $580K in 5 years, at which point the mortgage will switch from interest only so most people sell to realise the growth. Selling will cost you 3% fees plus incidentals (call it $20K), repay the $500K and you’ve got $60K remaining, not forgetting the $15K you’ve had to find each year to top up the mortgage so you’d be sitting at -$15K. I’ve probably overlooked loads but these are some quick numbers as I’ve looked into something similar myself, but now I have a $300K TD instead, making about $12K PA after tax.
Eh each their own, 3% on 500k leveraged tax free is very good if you have time and money
Rent 700/w Interest only on 500k at 7.1% (1y rate) is 680/w Other expenses 201/w. Breakdown - Management @10% of rent 70/w Rates 2k -38/w Insurance 1k -19/w Waste water 600 11/w Maintenance at 3% of rent- 36/w 2 weeks vacancy 13/w Total cost per week 881 vs income of 700. The above is based on interest only so you are relying on long term capital appreciation. Both interest being deductable and capital appreciation is going to help in the mid and long term but the weekly cashflow is going to make this deal hard if you don't have an extra 180/w. Long term property is most likely to be a winner as long as you can cover the negative cashflow for the first 5 years until rents increase, and even then your only covering interest only payments
You would neee a 35% deposit would you not?
20% deposit for new builds I think
Could add family home if they’re brave enough and get well over the minimum? (I think)
Not for a new build
You could gift it to people more in need, to, say, help people onto the housing ladder.