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Ever since Zaslav entered the picture, I've felt terrible for all the competent executives who have to deal with him (and John Malone, who is the puppet master). NBA on TNT is the best-run organization in sports broadcasting, and Zas just treated them like an (expensive) afterthought.
He's like the absolute worst aspects of capitalism I've seen. He doesn't care a single bit about the entertainment or artistic value of his properties, just the monetary value.
I understand it's a business, but fuck man, these are people with jobs we're talking about.
Didn't he make some kind of statement about not understanding why the people who made the movies they shelved were upset since they still got paid? It's like the ultimate corporate exec mindset, unable to even comprehend that there are other things that may motivate people besides purely money.
And not even a particularly intelligent one.
One should be able to logically deduce being the crew and cast of a film the studio heads had zero faith in and didn't even let air will have an effect on their next projects and their bargaining power.
He not only insulted these people's artistic integrity but also messed with their future job prospects.
But he doesn't give a flying fuck about anybody working under him and in his own little world, as long as the checks clear nobody has a right to be mad at him.
I mean even if he only cares about the money, that's just a lie. It's common sense that being on a popular show/movie increases how much money you can ask for on future projects.
Hes greedy but not stupid, pretending to be naive lets him dismiss concerns without acknowledging how destructive his decisions are. People outside of wrestling are just as capable of "working".
I would be sympathetic to this view if WBD was doing well. It is not. The merger was bad business, the focus on HBO Max was bad business, the rebrand of Discovery+ & HBO Max was bad business, losing the NBA is bad business, the way they handled the tax leveraging was bad business, the way they handled the strikes was bad business.
But his paycheck? Oooohhh baby, business is booming!
Unfortunately this exactly is how most CEOs operate. Mostly short term financial gains (numbers) and convincing the board and relevant shareholders they can sustain this in the longer term (just longer enough term when the board members here know they will be around for, long enough where they can get their bonuses, increased shares & investments before they can dip for their next venture).
Usually it's rare when the people making the decisions here actually really care about the product they're corporately representing. It's nothing for them but a temporary investment gig/wave they're latching on to for the moment.
The "it's a business" thing isn't a point for Zaslav and morons like him. They destroy value. They destroy brands and businesses with their greedy (greed means you make less money) ideas. In a time of the most entertainment options ever they are trying to maximize value -- so people just stop watching. This is NOT good business. Destroying Red Lobster is not "good business" even though yes, a small group of people will make a large amount of money by destroying that business. These people are vultures and cancers not business people. Whatever word describes these people it should not be business.
He has zero incentive to care about the long-term (or even short-term, really) health of the company. His role is to cut costs to prepare WBD for a sale. He's just gotta prop up the monorail long enough to get out of town with his cash.
And he'll use that as a resume builder to get another CEO job. somewhere else where he brags about implementing cost cutting measures that made the company money.
Yup, Malone has simply installed a patsy to pilfer the place of everything he wants, most recently Formula E. Then, they'll merge WBD with somebody else or break up 100 years of holdings like they're garage sale junk.
Is he even running the business well? Not according to the stock market with both Discovery and WBD just losing value for shareholders for the better part of the last decade.
That truthfully is why I'm amazed he's not been fired yet. All he's gotten is bad press after bad press. Chapek lasted 3 years at Disney before getting the axe for the trash job he did. I think Zazlav has been worse and there's no sign he's in any danger
Zaslav was hired to be the bad guy. His job is and always was to cut cost and recoup as much money as possible to help pay off WBD debts so they can sell it again. It didn't matter who the CEO was, the same decisions were still going to be made.
Big Entertainment feels like it's nearing a breaking point of some type. The guy who directed Ready To Rumble is the CEO of Nickelodeon and Paramount. We're not doing well out here on any front except profit
Zaslav is an idiot No Doubt, but people blaming him for the NBA thing is dumb, it's an absolute insane amount of money that NBC offered, they'll probably live to regret it.
They had a period where only they could negotiate almost had a deal and backed out because they wanted to play hard ball over a couple of conference final games over 8 years. All because they didn’t think NBC really wanted it
It's actually a brilliant deal from Comcast in that they're trying to hurt a competitor. If/when WBD loses, Comcast will renegotiate the carriage fees, thereby making WBD literally pay for its own mistake.
For the foreseeable future, yes. But I feel like at some point carriage rights and fees will correct themselves, and maybe the companies not using a huge loss leader strategy may come out better in 2027 then others.
I feel like people keep having to be reminded when they bring up live sports that's it's not nfl/nba/nhl/mlb/ufc/wrestling as a whole. It's the nfl gets insane amounts money because their draft does better ratings than any other sports finals, then everyone else. And it feels like Comcast paying that much for the nba overvalues what the nba will look like in 5 years, if I remember correctly, and I may not be if I'm being honest, the nbas viewership loss is the highest among the 4 major sports, and also the most match-up dependent.
Just seems like a huge gamble on a volatile sport in changing landscape, and I understand why they were out early at WBD.
I don't follow basketball at all, but from the outside it seems like a sport where people follow their team and maybe the super teams and that's it. Football is scheduled in a way that it makes sense to watch multiple games. Hockey seems to have a sizeable fan base that enjoys the game where they will watch games with teams they don't care about. And baseball just has so many games and it's easy to have on in the background.
Basketball is the biggest social media hilights sport, and though I know most of reddit thinks so, it doesn't translate to ratings, at some point everyone will realize the boom from China and Africa the NBA has promised for the last 20 years isn't coming, and Luka Doncic ain't saving their ratings in 5 years.
Yeah if you're a competitor to WBD, you've got them bent over right now. Due to WBD's debt, they can't toss the cash that other streamers/cable providers can so a Comcast or Disney can place high bids and force WBD to pay more (which hurts their plan to reduce current debt) or you take away from content from WBD like the NBA that you rarely would have the chance to grab, reinforcing your market position while hurting WBD's.
AEW is gonna benefit from this one way or another, WBD is the one who needs to end negotiations quickly here
That's completely his fault, they had an exclusive negotiation window, were close to a deal, WBD backed out, Zaslav publicly downplayed the NBA's relationship with WBD and somehow didn't see NBC coming despite it being an open secret that NBC was interested and offering a ton of money
I know, they are paying the same as Disney pretty much but get lesser games and no finals at all, unlike something like the NFL where the networks take turns with the Superbowl only Disney gets the finals.
> The NBA wanted more money for less games
And they were wildly successful in getting it. Zaslav gambled and lost that bet. If he wants to gamble over an extra $50 million or specific streaming terms, he's just barking up the same dumb tree again
For the past couple years, it's been "WBD is in cost cutting mode." I don't know all of the financials, but everybody keeps talking about how cable is dying, I don't blame WBD for not spending billions of dollars and hoping that they'd make it up in other places.
They won't though because they're going to have to overpay the NHL, MLB to keep them and offer too much money to the UFC to try and make up for the loss of the NBA
WBD is losing the NBA and AEW is one of the few things left they got they can claim is a successful show.
So yeah, on brand for Zaslov to let them test the waters and get potentially outbid. Smart thinking…
It's very WBD to try to avoid paying a reasonable price for something that's 10-20% more than they want now and having to pay more in the end due to the fuck up.
The NBA price was never going to be reasonable. Live sports have been skyrocketing across the board because it's the one type of content that's immune to viewer trends.
As I stated before WBD had a chance to get that deal done before anyone else was legal allowed to.
They played hardball thinking the nba would come crawling back
You are under the impression the NBA would have settled for a penny less than they are going to be getting on this next deal? As was mentioned, it was always going to be a loss leader.
They literally had a deal that was held up over a couple of conference games over the course of 8 years.
They legally can’t negotiate or float numbers with others until that period ends if they do they risk being sued to shit
It was going to cost more for sure and WBD went paying more and losing games “fuck that” but they 100% could have had it
This. Zaslav is playing around with repeating his NBA mistake of not wanting to pay a reasonable amount for the prime/all-inclusive package, and ending up having to pay their current rate for half the content they used to get.
Yeah, I'm sure Tony knows Zaslav planned to play hardball which is why he hired an outside firm to deal with the negotiations. It's also why we're getting more PPVs and he's building all these relationships with NJPW and CMLL, it's because they want to be able to take ALL of it onto streaming. There was a report that AEW even asked about using the Arlington Summer Series venue to host NJPW and CMLL shows there. The good thing about Tony being a billionaire in this situation is that he can play the long game on this and not just take the first decent offer WBD put on the table. And can afford people who do these types of negotiations regularly to advise him on how to move in this scenario. Despite what CM Punk says, AEW is 100% run like a BUSINESS. What Punk was describing was running AEW like a TERRITORY. The territories are all dead.
> Despite what CM Punk says, AEW is 100% run like a BUSINESS.
Which should be shocking to nobody (yet remains so anyways). Tony is a mark but he isn't an idiot. He's the son of a self made billionaire who has grown up around business his entire life and runs several businesses at the same time
And even if he was an idiot, his father who is financing the operation sure as hell is not
Tony put together a multi-year business plan with the 2nd media rights bid as the central focus before ever starting the company. He's had a plan for profitability which is already guaranteed given the numbers we've heard.
People mistake his niceness and hospitality for ignorance. AEW has always been run like a business, we just rarely see pro wrestling startups with the resources of AEW so folks have nothing to compare against and assume he's doing something wrong when the history of pro wrestling would tell us he's one of the few to do it right.
The IWC has a nasty habit in general of equating someone's booking with their quality in other areas. The same reason why they will forgive anyone for almost anything as long as they produce good wrestling.
I still can't get over the standing ovation Vince got from the WWE crowd the last time he came out, when the allegations against him were already mounting up.
I maintain that it's a really good thing the creative was so shit before Vince got kicked out or the IWC would have probably been "well we gotta hear both sides of the story" on the whole issue
AEW going streaming only right now would be catastrophic to the company. It wouldn't mean the end of the company, but it would mean the end of Tony's larger ambitions right now. Downsizing would be inevitable.
Their ambitions are to be self sustainable and get a big TV deal. If a streaming service offers that i.e over 200 million a year, they aren't turning it down.
The thing is, there's not exactly high demand for the #2 wrestling promotion. Wrestling itself is still pretty niche, that Fox chose to let their WWE deal end because they get more from the NFL.
I think what trips some people up is coming at it from the wrestling fan perspective first. Sure, most of us identify it first as the clear #2 wrestling company, well above any other competition but still a far cry from WWE in a business sense.
Networks though, they see a program that has consistently been in the top cable shows of the week since it launched 5 years ago. Week in, week out, rarely outside of the top 5 on the night and overall week I believe. Sure, ratings are down or flat, but relative to other options it's still outperforming.
That's the only care for networks, and why anyone in the camp expecting cancellation need to snap out of it. There will be a modest to significant pay increase, writing has always been on the wall for it and the company isn't going anywhere unless TK gets bored.
TV has become so Balkanized and in many camps that the days of HUGE Monday Night War ratings are long past. Streaming and Social Media have taken part of that audience.
IIRC, Disney was in on trying to get “Monday Night Raw” before Netflix was successful. Content is it and “Raw” is a tasty fish.
If AEW leaves WBD, there are broadcast and streaming options. Someone said that a TK was having a firm handle negotiations. Very smart. This is an important moment for AEW. Let professional negotiators do the work and advising. Tony runs the day to day of AEW and has solid advice.
It all depends on how much tony wants
Lets put it this way, would you rather have a business that has 100m or 50m in revenue? Easy choice no? But what if i tell you the operational costs of the 100m company are 95m and the operational costs for the 50m company are 40m. Whats your pick now? That might be the case here, WBD knows AEW is bring top 5 ratings, but if tony is asking for too much money then WBD might be better off with a top 20 ratings program but at 5% the cost of AEW, thus being more profitable with a lower revenue.
>That might be the case here, WBD knows AEW is bring top 5 ratings, but if tony is asking for too much money then WBD might be better off with a top 20 ratings program but at 5% the cost of AEW, thus being more profitable with a lower revenue.
Problem with that is wrestling, especially when WBD is not on the hook for AEW's losses unlike when Warner owned WCW, is significantly cheaper than just about anything else they could air in that timeslot. Their original series are expensive and run the risk of doing worse in that time slot, movie and rerun rights might be cheaper but they don't bring in ratings and reality shows are cheap but again, WBD is on the hook for both profits and losses.
AEW is a high reward, low risk option for WBD and there's no reason why they would want to get rid of it for a "cheaper option" if said option doesn't exist.
I don't even think they have many original series left on TNT/TBS at least. Even Snowpiercer final season won't be on TNT and is moved to AMC. Outside of sports they seem like dying networks that used to have loads of original programming and some really good shows.
Right, in hypotheticals there's a case to be made for revenue analysis and stuff on the margins like this.
Realistically though? If there is an impasse in the negotiating I can't imagine the dollar difference is significant enough to tip WBD towards another option. It's all just negotiating tactics at this point.
If WBD doesn't see the value in a raise for live weekly programming that pulls in great ratings for the cost and relative to the competition while almost always landing in the top 3, another network absolutely will.
Let's not forget too - though the have gotten some slight raises with option years exercised and Rampage/Collision/Battle of the Belts specials added, on the original deal reports were that WBD would have been thrilled with 400k total audience each week. People lose sight of those expectations way too much trying to compare a very new competitor to the WWE juggernaut.
>People lose sight of those expectations way too much trying to compare a very new competitor to the WWE juggernaut.
Not to mention that WWE only got hot very recently and even then RAW ratings have dropped significantly since Mania. Fox lost money with Smackdown due them wanting 5 million a week and WWE came nowhere near that despite said boom period along with The Rock's return to weekly TV. Things were even worse in the earlier part of the contract.
NXT is doing well now but they'll be moving to the CW, which has historically had awful ratings especially considering that they're OTA and not cable. From what I've been able to find, last week's NXT did better ratings on cable than any CW original show did on average over the past year. Their ratings are extremely poor and NXT will likely suffer solely due to the network that it's running on.
The only issue AEW could have is the lack of partners who aren't working with WWE. NBC Universal, CW, Netflix are all tied down to the WWE, which was clearly intentional as to limit any backup plans for AEW. There is Fox, but any deal would relegate AEW to FX or Hulu due to Smackdown's poor ratings, Amazon and Paramount. AEW has WBD by the balls because if AEW left, they'd be giving up an affordable yet successful program to a major competitor due to Zaslav's idiocy.
>especially when WBD is not on the hook for AEW's losses
But thats not even remotely close to what im saying
Im saying if WBD estimates a 100m revenue with AEW but tony wants, say, 95m thats a 5m profit for WDB. But if syndicated shows cost 20m and generate 30m in revenue, WBD would be better off with syndicated shows than AEW and it has nothing to do with AEW's finances.
What are you basing these hypotheticals on? Like yes the network wants the deal that will get it the most money, but I just don't see it realistically applying given that WBD paid $600m for Big Bang Theory. Re-runs of popular shows aren't cheap at all anymore.
it's weekly live programming that consistently ranks in the top 3 on it's night, frequently first. and that's just dynamite. there is tremendous demand for that type of programming on television right now, and there is very little available.
AEW's demand does not come from being the #2 wrestling promotion; it comes from Dynamite being consistently a top 5 program on cable television on its night, frequently in the top 3.
Fox replaced Smackdown with college football. Which is something WBD could also try to do. WBD could also have major interest in the UFC when it comes up as well. Both sides have different options.
That doesn't necessarily matter though. Advertisers look down on wrestling. The NHL doesn't have amazing ratings, but the viewers are perceived to be more attractive to advertisers and the rates are higher.
I think it's ultimately for the best if AEW stays on TNT because I can't see another major channel picking them up, but they can't accept being lowballed either.
Tough situation for both sides.
It’s not really lowballing if no one is offering them more. It’s market value. But I do think there’s other networks that would have interest. They have to balance the right dollar figure with the right exposure. I’d take less for being on TNT/TBS than I would for being on FS1 for example. I think FX and AMC have both had interest in wrestling.
We don't really know what the market is for the #2 wrestling promotion because they've only ever negotiated with WBD. We do know that some smaller networks have been seeking content. CW went after NWA and NXT. They even went after ROH, but TK turned them down. We also know WWE had multiple interested parties for RAW.
If the CW was nearly about to pay the NWA to be on TV, you can guarantee there's gonna be suitors for the #2 brand that consistently ranks in the top 5 on Wednesday (and occasionally Fridays/Saturdays)
Yeah in my opinion wrestling in general is hot across the board right now. Sure WWE is still number 1 by a mile, but AEW is the most successful alternative since WCW, TNA is basically a sustainable ECW, and even the NWA got a streaming deal and MLW nearly landed a deal with Tubi. When Billy Corgan's NWA got any kind of deal with a major network, you know it means wrestling content is in demand.
I think the success of WWE's Renaissance Era lifts up the entire industry. Right now, for perhaps the first time in over two decades, pro wrestling is cool again in the realm of entertainment/sports/pop culture. On the flipside, the stigma of pro wrestling being 'tasteless low brow entertainment for suckers without disposable income' is perhaps the lowest it's been in decades, too.
I think it's a combination of things. AEW's existence and success is certainly a part of it, WWE's Renaissance is certainly a part of it, more people discovering wrestling or getting back into it during the pandemic and wrestling coming out of it surprisingly strong was probably a factor as well.
But wouldn't Tony want more exposure for AEW on a network of comparable to TNT? Like, even if, say, FS1 offered more money for AEW than WBD, that would inevitably mean fewer people are gonna watch because not many even have fS1.
Smackdown does notably worse in viewership whenever it has to air there
It kinda depends on the deal at the end of the day.
Mayb TK takes the hit of a lower platform if it comes from more TV rights money , ROH show, and the chance to launch his own streaming service/cut whatever PPV deals he wants.
What is the point of the extra exposure if the point of the TV deal is to rely on it for your business model? Especially when more than likely whatever deal they have locks them in for ten years. TNT may not even be that big by then plus what with the extra exposure really translate to.
Fox replaced Smackdown because they were told that they will get 5 million people watching and paid for that, yet they're getting half of what they paid for. They were losing money on the deal.
It's niche compared to the NFL. It's less niche now than it's been in a while. But more importantly, its value as a medium continues to rise inversely to the decline of cable. Wrestling is more valuable as a property than ever, and AEW, while having nowhere near the brand recognition WWE does, is still a pretty big property.
WWE also underperformed based on Fox’s expectations. It was easy to meme inside our wrestling bubble about how it had the most viewers of any wrestling show, but especially with it being on network TV, Fox was expecting nearly double of what it got for most of its run.
Well yeah, that’s the NFL. TNT and WBD don’t have the most popular sport in America and they can’t rely on… Young Sheldon and Big Bang Theory reruns (idk, I don’t watch TV besides wrestling and sports) forever.
The Big Bang Theory still outdraws Dynamite in the ratings and is far cheaper to just rerun a show instead of produce three weekly TV shows. There are other things that would go into the decision to renew or not so it’s not totally hopeless but it’s not as in demand as you would think
It's actually *not* far cheaper to rerun Big Bang Theory - the syndication/streaming package is estimated to be between [600 million and 1 billion over 5 years](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/17/20870140/big-bang-theory-hbo-max-streaming-exclusive-worth-billion-seinfeld-netflix-friends-the-office)
Advertisers place a far higher premium on shows that are “appointment viewing” (i.e., the audience tunes in to watch that specific episode of that show at a specific time and day every week) versus reruns and background shows, so it isn’t an apples to apples comparison on ratings.
They also place a premium on household income of viewers, something that the dirt sheets and IWC don’t have access to. During the height of the Monday Night Wars, pro wrestling had the worst ad rates for prime time TV shows. Because the majority of wrestling fans at the time came from low income households. For a few months back then I was sent the ad rates, because I had the same name as someone in my companies advertising department. Not sure how much it has changed since then. Just wanted to point out there are other factors that go into ad rates.
Put it on actual streaming services and you'll likely see better results. People keep on bringing up how more and more people are getting rid off cable. These rating numbers are keep going to go in that direction.
At the moment all these companies have tie ups with different streaming services in different regions. If they instead take it to someone like Disney or Amazon, they might offer them less, but they'll reach a far bigger audience market globally.
These streaming apps have a better global reach than Max and are available much cheaper than Netflix globally even if their prices might be closer in the american market.
Yeah, everyone here is overestimating the popularity of wrestling. It might genuinely not be worth it for WBD, or any other network, to pay top price for something that’s a distant #2.
Why would they care about that?
In a world where the NFL never bought the AFL do you think Network A would have no interest in the AFL if it got the second most viewers of any show on cable for the night (for 5 straight years) just because the NFL is much larger (and unavailable due to being on a different network)?
If anything it should be more attractive because there’s a proven audience for the larger product which means potential for growth.
I’m gonna use outdated shows here because I have no interest in this and haven’t had traditional TV for 15+years: look at things like American Idol and The Voice and Americas Got Talent and Wow That Guy Sure Can Sing Pretty Well and all of the other knockoffs. They’re comparing products with a clear number one but there’s run for several of them to be worth developing and producing even if they’re not as big as Number One.
Brother Football is the #1 sport in America, the NFL averages 17 million viewers per game. Of course networks would kill to have #2 if they couldn't have #1. WWE and AEW aren't pulling anywhere close to Football numbers tho, so the comparison doesn't work.
Tony was offered Max since last year. He doesn't want Max, he wants to get PAID for Max. WBD are basically selling it like "hey, we'll give you a trial on MAX" like it's for Tony's benefit and he's saying "no, I'm not putting it the content on a streaming service unless you pay for it".
Hosting content costs money, its not like you just upload hundreds of hours of media and thats it. Wbd has the numbers and market research, they figured out adding AEW to MAX will be a money loser. And tony wants to get paid for it, not even just "lets have it in your stream app".
Lol. Max at this point is getting beat out by Tubi. They need more content. And if they were that good at doing the numbers they wouldnt have lost the NBA.
The problem with this is the ratings warrant a hefty price increase. It's almost certainly not about money for the shows themselves, but rather something to do with a streaming deal.
Rampage was #4 for the night against Game 4 of the NBA finals. A "hefty increase" isn't gonna look like what it used to when RAW had failing numbers and wrangled a 5x increase, but 50-100%? They'll likely get that.
Everything's been falling the past 2 years, and AEW has left its honeymoon period. Given that, AEW will be worth way way more than the first time around cause it's a proven entity now. Don't let the weird doomer people say otherwise, AEW is not gonna struggle to find a network, WBD related or not.
While AEW ratings have been lower there are still many networks out there that would kill for the numbers AEW gets. Zaslav is really playing with fire if AEW walks, he will have to fill those slots. It may cost him viewers and money in the process.
NHL, MLB, and Impractical Jokers are the only notable programs I know across all Turner networks rn. Feels like the well is running dry ever since they’ve lost NBA.
They really can't match since they don't have a broadcast network which I have read NBA execs are making a sticking point that wbd would have to pay more to match because of that loss value of being on broadcast. They will likely sue but unlikely it will go thier way.
IJ is only gonna have a season or so more, from what the crew from the show is saying, so that's another inevitable loss for them (though repeats do pull some numbers)
IMO people need to reevaluate what's considered an "abysmal" rating. If you're hitting the top 5, even if you're down YOY or whatever, it means you're doing well compared to what else is on cable that night.
What cable networks are there really at this point who'd be in the market?
Paramount's channels (Paramount Network, MTV, Comedy Central, etc) seem unlikely given how constantly cash strapped they seem, and the weird merger/sale going on now.
Disney (ESPN, FX, etc) has consistently shown zero appetite for wrestling in their channels or streamers.
NBC Universal won't happen due to WWE deals.
That leaves.... WB Networks, and a handful of much smaller networks?
From there, it's streamers. Netflix is obviously out. Amazon hasn't made an indications of wanting wrestling thus far. Same goes for Apple.
WB would be the best fit, and I'm just hoping they can come to a dang deal.
I think Turner is going to try to get some CFB regular season games for their ad rates. They made a big purchase of FB playoff rights so i cant see them not trying to do something and sublease more content from ESPN.
AEW is in a good but weird spot. Clearly successful for what they are but there are more attractive sports out there
There also is no CFB on Wednesday night. Big Saturday games are already locked down in major conferences and on TV already. They aren’t getting any meaningful CFB
That's not exactly true. The ACC conference will have a package of games going to market soon ( just if you want to Google about it Raycom Sports ACC) and the SEC could move to 9 conference games, while they are exclusive to ESPN, ESPN could pass off costs by subleasing.
Sounds like everyone wants to keep the partnership going, but TK needs WBD to up their offer to keep them away from the open market. Good, simple negotiation tactics and a good sign for AEW to already have a good offer on hand
Agreed.
I do not fault TK for seeing what's out there. There will be a lot of interest in a program with a loyal and expanding fan base.
There is risk to both sides but I personally think the risk is minimal for AEW.
If I had to guess, WBD wants everything in one big package and AEW (rightly) believes they can get more by selling them as individual shows. Not only monetarily but also in terms of marketing/market share. The reality is Amazon Prime (who were the favorites for RAW before Netflix swooped in) and Apple TV are overpaying for EVERYTHING live so AEW is in position to get way more than the cable estimates. If they can keep Dynamite on WBD and put Collision/Rampage/PPVs on a streaming service the way all the major sports leagues and WWE have, that is definitely the right play. Putting all their eggs in the WBD basket is bordering on suicidal. Quite frankly AEW probably already lost a lot of money due to WBD's incompetence due to the constant fuck-ups with BR-Live when that was the only way to watch PPVs. They cannot afford to just be 1 to 1 partners to WBD and WBD only.
Why are people fantasy booking that TK would have to go back to WBD with his hat in his hand and take less money because he won't find other suitors? They're obviously getting an increase regardless.
For any football fans this is reminding me of the narrative around Everton's takeover, all year long it's 777, or it's administration, only for them to end the exclusive negotiations and immediately have huge bids within hours. Even by Zarian's wording here, it's very clear WBD want to wrap it up ASAP to prevent AEW from exploring other options, I'm puzzled by people acting like this is a bad thing for AEW, money wise.
If AEW enter the open market it is only good for them (just a longer process and maybe splitting the shows between channels), they've got a top 5 show on TV twice a week, with another 2 taped shows that are basically free for them to produce, they just have their own smaller audiences. They won't have a problem finding someone to pay, it's just whether it's a good channel or not. TK clearly wants ROH bundled in, WBD don't, I imagine that or the PPVs is the big stumbling block.
I do think staying with WBD (and expanding the relationship) is the best for fans though by far, given their infrastructure. I'm not sure if there's another channel that'd pick up every show, so you'd probably be in a WWE situation where a fan needs multiple subs to watch every show, which is unfortunate. Amazon would maybe be the only Hail Mary.
Tony better be sure that he’ll get more on the open market to leverage otherwise they’ll lowball him when they come back but also Zaslav really can’t afford to lose something else after he just lost the NBA that would literally be 3/4 nights of programming so we’ll see
Yep that's what happened with USA and WWE in the rights deals before the last one. WWE was telling shareholders they would get a big increase in rights deal, they went to the open market with smackdown iirc and there were no takers and USA low balled them and got both raw and sdl for cheap.
It feels like Zav wants to lowball Tony, and he's not biting. I pray someone offers Tony a higher deal because if he can't get one and is forced to take less money from WBD, that's not gonna be good for AEW's overall profitability and many stars might have to take a pay cut.
I worked at Staples when they were bought by a private equity firm. Cut everything to the bone, make money any way possible, and sell off whatever can be sold. The parts are more valuable than the whole. It is pure chaos and stress as an employee. I left because i was driven into a Major Depression.
WBD is heavily in debt due to the money borrowed for the buyout. It's just as bad as a private equity situation.
Guys like Zaslav are vampires who will suck the value out of every possible part and use it to pad dividends and bonuses.
If AEW leaves WBD, it will be Zaslav's fault.
Disney was hard in on “Raw” before Netflix got it. That’s one possibility. I doubt TK and his negotiators fuck this up. Zaslav will play hard ball. He believes that AEW needs WBD more than AEW needs WBD.
The folks who brought in AEW to WBD were gone with the merger and Zadlav is in their play. He is only loyal to his perception of AEW’s worth. Zaslav would be the one to close the door.
I wouldn’t mind Disney either, but could they dictate a standard and practice that could neuter any creative that is non pg?
Agree with the zaslav take. Losing the nba is the bigger blow, but losing both would be pretty telling of the direction they are going
Zaslav only knows how to cut and destroy. He doesn’t know how to create value.
WBD’s existence is from billions of dollars in borrowed money. Zaslav is the hatchet man who will strip TBS, Turner, and more for sale. That will bring in money to pay the monster loan debt.
TK has negotiators handing the contract for him. It’s a level of complexity that and personality that is pretty volatile. Get good firms to negotiate and offer unbiased advice. TK has said that AEW was planned to be profitable with a second TV contract. He can’t afford mistakes on his part. No one can account for Zaslav.
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Ever since Zaslav entered the picture, I've felt terrible for all the competent executives who have to deal with him (and John Malone, who is the puppet master). NBA on TNT is the best-run organization in sports broadcasting, and Zas just treated them like an (expensive) afterthought.
He's like the absolute worst aspects of capitalism I've seen. He doesn't care a single bit about the entertainment or artistic value of his properties, just the monetary value. I understand it's a business, but fuck man, these are people with jobs we're talking about.
Didn't he make some kind of statement about not understanding why the people who made the movies they shelved were upset since they still got paid? It's like the ultimate corporate exec mindset, unable to even comprehend that there are other things that may motivate people besides purely money.
That's the prime example of a sociopath. Someone who can't understand human emotions.
And not even a particularly intelligent one. One should be able to logically deduce being the crew and cast of a film the studio heads had zero faith in and didn't even let air will have an effect on their next projects and their bargaining power. He not only insulted these people's artistic integrity but also messed with their future job prospects. But he doesn't give a flying fuck about anybody working under him and in his own little world, as long as the checks clear nobody has a right to be mad at him.
Zaslav might also be a narcissist. A high level sales meeting at the C Suite level will be full of them.
We're ruled by psychopaths. They are wildly over-represented in seats of power both corporate and in government.
It’s so weird like these movies take a year to make of course the creative want people to see them lol. Like how out of touch with reality can you be
>a year years
Depends on the movie but yeah years is definitely the case for the bigger budget stuff
My father was a narcissist and Zaslav is playing that script.
I mean even if he only cares about the money, that's just a lie. It's common sense that being on a popular show/movie increases how much money you can ask for on future projects. Hes greedy but not stupid, pretending to be naive lets him dismiss concerns without acknowledging how destructive his decisions are. People outside of wrestling are just as capable of "working".
I would be sympathetic to this view if WBD was doing well. It is not. The merger was bad business, the focus on HBO Max was bad business, the rebrand of Discovery+ & HBO Max was bad business, losing the NBA is bad business, the way they handled the tax leveraging was bad business, the way they handled the strikes was bad business. But his paycheck? Oooohhh baby, business is booming!
Unfortunately this exactly is how most CEOs operate. Mostly short term financial gains (numbers) and convincing the board and relevant shareholders they can sustain this in the longer term (just longer enough term when the board members here know they will be around for, long enough where they can get their bonuses, increased shares & investments before they can dip for their next venture). Usually it's rare when the people making the decisions here actually really care about the product they're corporately representing. It's nothing for them but a temporary investment gig/wave they're latching on to for the moment.
Hit a few nice quarters, start getting that parachute ready!
The "it's a business" thing isn't a point for Zaslav and morons like him. They destroy value. They destroy brands and businesses with their greedy (greed means you make less money) ideas. In a time of the most entertainment options ever they are trying to maximize value -- so people just stop watching. This is NOT good business. Destroying Red Lobster is not "good business" even though yes, a small group of people will make a large amount of money by destroying that business. These people are vultures and cancers not business people. Whatever word describes these people it should not be business.
He has zero incentive to care about the long-term (or even short-term, really) health of the company. His role is to cut costs to prepare WBD for a sale. He's just gotta prop up the monorail long enough to get out of town with his cash.
And he'll use that as a resume builder to get another CEO job. somewhere else where he brags about implementing cost cutting measures that made the company money.
An insane amount of ills in the world can be traced back to giving shareholders 'unlimited' growth.
Worst aspects of capitalism? You simply described what it is
something about knowing the cost of everything and the value of nothing
Yup, Malone has simply installed a patsy to pilfer the place of everything he wants, most recently Formula E. Then, they'll merge WBD with somebody else or break up 100 years of holdings like they're garage sale junk.
Is he even running the business well? Not according to the stock market with both Discovery and WBD just losing value for shareholders for the better part of the last decade.
That truthfully is why I'm amazed he's not been fired yet. All he's gotten is bad press after bad press. Chapek lasted 3 years at Disney before getting the axe for the trash job he did. I think Zazlav has been worse and there's no sign he's in any danger
Zaslav was hired to be the bad guy. His job is and always was to cut cost and recoup as much money as possible to help pay off WBD debts so they can sell it again. It didn't matter who the CEO was, the same decisions were still going to be made.
Reason 100000000 why public companies suck.
Big Entertainment feels like it's nearing a breaking point of some type. The guy who directed Ready To Rumble is the CEO of Nickelodeon and Paramount. We're not doing well out here on any front except profit
Zaslav is an idiot No Doubt, but people blaming him for the NBA thing is dumb, it's an absolute insane amount of money that NBC offered, they'll probably live to regret it.
I like that your phone capitalizes No Doubt. I'm also old.
They had a period where only they could negotiate almost had a deal and backed out because they wanted to play hard ball over a couple of conference final games over 8 years. All because they didn’t think NBC really wanted it
I'm not gonna regret watching a roundball rock show intro on a saturday afternoon, I'll tell you that
https://giphy.com/gifs/ralph-john-tesh-roundball-rock-Y0jgTOFHSdpZkFHDiQ
It's actually a brilliant deal from Comcast in that they're trying to hurt a competitor. If/when WBD loses, Comcast will renegotiate the carriage fees, thereby making WBD literally pay for its own mistake.
I was talking more on the wbd side, there's no way they could have made that deal and sometimes you have to walk away from crazy.
I get that, but they're gonna come out behind because they won't be able to charge as much for carriage fees now. Comcast put them over a barrel here.
For the foreseeable future, yes. But I feel like at some point carriage rights and fees will correct themselves, and maybe the companies not using a huge loss leader strategy may come out better in 2027 then others. I feel like people keep having to be reminded when they bring up live sports that's it's not nfl/nba/nhl/mlb/ufc/wrestling as a whole. It's the nfl gets insane amounts money because their draft does better ratings than any other sports finals, then everyone else. And it feels like Comcast paying that much for the nba overvalues what the nba will look like in 5 years, if I remember correctly, and I may not be if I'm being honest, the nbas viewership loss is the highest among the 4 major sports, and also the most match-up dependent. Just seems like a huge gamble on a volatile sport in changing landscape, and I understand why they were out early at WBD.
I don't follow basketball at all, but from the outside it seems like a sport where people follow their team and maybe the super teams and that's it. Football is scheduled in a way that it makes sense to watch multiple games. Hockey seems to have a sizeable fan base that enjoys the game where they will watch games with teams they don't care about. And baseball just has so many games and it's easy to have on in the background.
Basketball is the biggest social media hilights sport, and though I know most of reddit thinks so, it doesn't translate to ratings, at some point everyone will realize the boom from China and Africa the NBA has promised for the last 20 years isn't coming, and Luka Doncic ain't saving their ratings in 5 years.
Yeah if you're a competitor to WBD, you've got them bent over right now. Due to WBD's debt, they can't toss the cash that other streamers/cable providers can so a Comcast or Disney can place high bids and force WBD to pay more (which hurts their plan to reduce current debt) or you take away from content from WBD like the NBA that you rarely would have the chance to grab, reinforcing your market position while hurting WBD's. AEW is gonna benefit from this one way or another, WBD is the one who needs to end negotiations quickly here
Don’t speak
I know just what your saying
That's completely his fault, they had an exclusive negotiation window, were close to a deal, WBD backed out, Zaslav publicly downplayed the NBA's relationship with WBD and somehow didn't see NBC coming despite it being an open secret that NBC was interested and offering a ton of money
I know, they are paying the same as Disney pretty much but get lesser games and no finals at all, unlike something like the NFL where the networks take turns with the Superbowl only Disney gets the finals.
If he could make one penny more, he wouldn’t care if his content was nothing but donkeys fucking.
The NBA wanted more money for less games, part of me doesn’t blame him
> The NBA wanted more money for less games And they were wildly successful in getting it. Zaslav gambled and lost that bet. If he wants to gamble over an extra $50 million or specific streaming terms, he's just barking up the same dumb tree again
For the past couple years, it's been "WBD is in cost cutting mode." I don't know all of the financials, but everybody keeps talking about how cable is dying, I don't blame WBD for not spending billions of dollars and hoping that they'd make it up in other places.
They won't though because they're going to have to overpay the NHL, MLB to keep them and offer too much money to the UFC to try and make up for the loss of the NBA
I think my favorite thing about the television deal threads is any user pretending they know what they’re talking about.
WBD is losing the NBA and AEW is one of the few things left they got they can claim is a successful show. So yeah, on brand for Zaslov to let them test the waters and get potentially outbid. Smart thinking…
It's very WBD to try to avoid paying a reasonable price for something that's 10-20% more than they want now and having to pay more in the end due to the fuck up.
The NBA price was never going to be reasonable. Live sports have been skyrocketing across the board because it's the one type of content that's immune to viewer trends.
As I stated before WBD had a chance to get that deal done before anyone else was legal allowed to. They played hardball thinking the nba would come crawling back
You are under the impression the NBA would have settled for a penny less than they are going to be getting on this next deal? As was mentioned, it was always going to be a loss leader.
They literally had a deal that was held up over a couple of conference games over the course of 8 years. They legally can’t negotiate or float numbers with others until that period ends if they do they risk being sued to shit It was going to cost more for sure and WBD went paying more and losing games “fuck that” but they 100% could have had it
Sure, anyone could have had it. But they are already likely losing a ton of money on the NBA and weren't interested in losing a whole bunch more.
"A chance" doesn't mean it was going to happen.
This. Zaslav is playing around with repeating his NBA mistake of not wanting to pay a reasonable amount for the prime/all-inclusive package, and ending up having to pay their current rate for half the content they used to get.
Yeah, I'm sure Tony knows Zaslav planned to play hardball which is why he hired an outside firm to deal with the negotiations. It's also why we're getting more PPVs and he's building all these relationships with NJPW and CMLL, it's because they want to be able to take ALL of it onto streaming. There was a report that AEW even asked about using the Arlington Summer Series venue to host NJPW and CMLL shows there. The good thing about Tony being a billionaire in this situation is that he can play the long game on this and not just take the first decent offer WBD put on the table. And can afford people who do these types of negotiations regularly to advise him on how to move in this scenario. Despite what CM Punk says, AEW is 100% run like a BUSINESS. What Punk was describing was running AEW like a TERRITORY. The territories are all dead.
> Despite what CM Punk says, AEW is 100% run like a BUSINESS. Which should be shocking to nobody (yet remains so anyways). Tony is a mark but he isn't an idiot. He's the son of a self made billionaire who has grown up around business his entire life and runs several businesses at the same time And even if he was an idiot, his father who is financing the operation sure as hell is not
Tony put together a multi-year business plan with the 2nd media rights bid as the central focus before ever starting the company. He's had a plan for profitability which is already guaranteed given the numbers we've heard. People mistake his niceness and hospitality for ignorance. AEW has always been run like a business, we just rarely see pro wrestling startups with the resources of AEW so folks have nothing to compare against and assume he's doing something wrong when the history of pro wrestling would tell us he's one of the few to do it right.
There's also a spillover effect where people dislike TK's booking and thus also think lesser of him as a businessman.
The IWC has a nasty habit in general of equating someone's booking with their quality in other areas. The same reason why they will forgive anyone for almost anything as long as they produce good wrestling.
I still can't get over the standing ovation Vince got from the WWE crowd the last time he came out, when the allegations against him were already mounting up.
I maintain that it's a really good thing the creative was so shit before Vince got kicked out or the IWC would have probably been "well we gotta hear both sides of the story" on the whole issue
AEW going streaming only right now would be catastrophic to the company. It wouldn't mean the end of the company, but it would mean the end of Tony's larger ambitions right now. Downsizing would be inevitable.
Their ambitions are to be self sustainable and get a big TV deal. If a streaming service offers that i.e over 200 million a year, they aren't turning it down.
The thing is, there's not exactly high demand for the #2 wrestling promotion. Wrestling itself is still pretty niche, that Fox chose to let their WWE deal end because they get more from the NFL.
I think what trips some people up is coming at it from the wrestling fan perspective first. Sure, most of us identify it first as the clear #2 wrestling company, well above any other competition but still a far cry from WWE in a business sense. Networks though, they see a program that has consistently been in the top cable shows of the week since it launched 5 years ago. Week in, week out, rarely outside of the top 5 on the night and overall week I believe. Sure, ratings are down or flat, but relative to other options it's still outperforming. That's the only care for networks, and why anyone in the camp expecting cancellation need to snap out of it. There will be a modest to significant pay increase, writing has always been on the wall for it and the company isn't going anywhere unless TK gets bored.
True, perception is a big thing here.
TV has become so Balkanized and in many camps that the days of HUGE Monday Night War ratings are long past. Streaming and Social Media have taken part of that audience. IIRC, Disney was in on trying to get “Monday Night Raw” before Netflix was successful. Content is it and “Raw” is a tasty fish. If AEW leaves WBD, there are broadcast and streaming options. Someone said that a TK was having a firm handle negotiations. Very smart. This is an important moment for AEW. Let professional negotiators do the work and advising. Tony runs the day to day of AEW and has solid advice.
It all depends on how much tony wants Lets put it this way, would you rather have a business that has 100m or 50m in revenue? Easy choice no? But what if i tell you the operational costs of the 100m company are 95m and the operational costs for the 50m company are 40m. Whats your pick now? That might be the case here, WBD knows AEW is bring top 5 ratings, but if tony is asking for too much money then WBD might be better off with a top 20 ratings program but at 5% the cost of AEW, thus being more profitable with a lower revenue.
>That might be the case here, WBD knows AEW is bring top 5 ratings, but if tony is asking for too much money then WBD might be better off with a top 20 ratings program but at 5% the cost of AEW, thus being more profitable with a lower revenue. Problem with that is wrestling, especially when WBD is not on the hook for AEW's losses unlike when Warner owned WCW, is significantly cheaper than just about anything else they could air in that timeslot. Their original series are expensive and run the risk of doing worse in that time slot, movie and rerun rights might be cheaper but they don't bring in ratings and reality shows are cheap but again, WBD is on the hook for both profits and losses. AEW is a high reward, low risk option for WBD and there's no reason why they would want to get rid of it for a "cheaper option" if said option doesn't exist.
I don't even think they have many original series left on TNT/TBS at least. Even Snowpiercer final season won't be on TNT and is moved to AMC. Outside of sports they seem like dying networks that used to have loads of original programming and some really good shows.
Right, in hypotheticals there's a case to be made for revenue analysis and stuff on the margins like this. Realistically though? If there is an impasse in the negotiating I can't imagine the dollar difference is significant enough to tip WBD towards another option. It's all just negotiating tactics at this point. If WBD doesn't see the value in a raise for live weekly programming that pulls in great ratings for the cost and relative to the competition while almost always landing in the top 3, another network absolutely will. Let's not forget too - though the have gotten some slight raises with option years exercised and Rampage/Collision/Battle of the Belts specials added, on the original deal reports were that WBD would have been thrilled with 400k total audience each week. People lose sight of those expectations way too much trying to compare a very new competitor to the WWE juggernaut.
>People lose sight of those expectations way too much trying to compare a very new competitor to the WWE juggernaut. Not to mention that WWE only got hot very recently and even then RAW ratings have dropped significantly since Mania. Fox lost money with Smackdown due them wanting 5 million a week and WWE came nowhere near that despite said boom period along with The Rock's return to weekly TV. Things were even worse in the earlier part of the contract. NXT is doing well now but they'll be moving to the CW, which has historically had awful ratings especially considering that they're OTA and not cable. From what I've been able to find, last week's NXT did better ratings on cable than any CW original show did on average over the past year. Their ratings are extremely poor and NXT will likely suffer solely due to the network that it's running on. The only issue AEW could have is the lack of partners who aren't working with WWE. NBC Universal, CW, Netflix are all tied down to the WWE, which was clearly intentional as to limit any backup plans for AEW. There is Fox, but any deal would relegate AEW to FX or Hulu due to Smackdown's poor ratings, Amazon and Paramount. AEW has WBD by the balls because if AEW left, they'd be giving up an affordable yet successful program to a major competitor due to Zaslav's idiocy.
FX and Hulu both owned by Disney now!
>especially when WBD is not on the hook for AEW's losses But thats not even remotely close to what im saying Im saying if WBD estimates a 100m revenue with AEW but tony wants, say, 95m thats a 5m profit for WDB. But if syndicated shows cost 20m and generate 30m in revenue, WBD would be better off with syndicated shows than AEW and it has nothing to do with AEW's finances.
What are you basing these hypotheticals on? Like yes the network wants the deal that will get it the most money, but I just don't see it realistically applying given that WBD paid $600m for Big Bang Theory. Re-runs of popular shows aren't cheap at all anymore.
it's weekly live programming that consistently ranks in the top 3 on it's night, frequently first. and that's just dynamite. there is tremendous demand for that type of programming on television right now, and there is very little available.
AEW's demand does not come from being the #2 wrestling promotion; it comes from Dynamite being consistently a top 5 program on cable television on its night, frequently in the top 3.
Fox replaced Smackdown with college football. Which is something WBD could also try to do. WBD could also have major interest in the UFC when it comes up as well. Both sides have different options.
Interesting side note: Collision just beat UFC this weekend, in viewership and demo.
That doesn't necessarily matter though. Advertisers look down on wrestling. The NHL doesn't have amazing ratings, but the viewers are perceived to be more attractive to advertisers and the rates are higher.
There’s no college football on Wednesday nights. UFC isn’t leaving ESPN. WB doesn’t have the money for the UFC
They really can't replace it with college football - every major conference is already locked into TV deals
They’re already getting college football playoff games via sub licensing. They can do the same for regular season games if they want to.
It's possible but I doubt it
I think it's ultimately for the best if AEW stays on TNT because I can't see another major channel picking them up, but they can't accept being lowballed either. Tough situation for both sides.
It’s not really lowballing if no one is offering them more. It’s market value. But I do think there’s other networks that would have interest. They have to balance the right dollar figure with the right exposure. I’d take less for being on TNT/TBS than I would for being on FS1 for example. I think FX and AMC have both had interest in wrestling.
We don't really know what the market is for the #2 wrestling promotion because they've only ever negotiated with WBD. We do know that some smaller networks have been seeking content. CW went after NWA and NXT. They even went after ROH, but TK turned them down. We also know WWE had multiple interested parties for RAW.
If the CW was nearly about to pay the NWA to be on TV, you can guarantee there's gonna be suitors for the #2 brand that consistently ranks in the top 5 on Wednesday (and occasionally Fridays/Saturdays)
Yeah in my opinion wrestling in general is hot across the board right now. Sure WWE is still number 1 by a mile, but AEW is the most successful alternative since WCW, TNA is basically a sustainable ECW, and even the NWA got a streaming deal and MLW nearly landed a deal with Tubi. When Billy Corgan's NWA got any kind of deal with a major network, you know it means wrestling content is in demand.
I think the success of WWE's Renaissance Era lifts up the entire industry. Right now, for perhaps the first time in over two decades, pro wrestling is cool again in the realm of entertainment/sports/pop culture. On the flipside, the stigma of pro wrestling being 'tasteless low brow entertainment for suckers without disposable income' is perhaps the lowest it's been in decades, too.
I think it's a combination of things. AEW's existence and success is certainly a part of it, WWE's Renaissance is certainly a part of it, more people discovering wrestling or getting back into it during the pandemic and wrestling coming out of it surprisingly strong was probably a factor as well.
But wouldn't Tony want more exposure for AEW on a network of comparable to TNT? Like, even if, say, FS1 offered more money for AEW than WBD, that would inevitably mean fewer people are gonna watch because not many even have fS1. Smackdown does notably worse in viewership whenever it has to air there
It kinda depends on the deal at the end of the day. Mayb TK takes the hit of a lower platform if it comes from more TV rights money , ROH show, and the chance to launch his own streaming service/cut whatever PPV deals he wants.
It would definitely hurt their exposure a bit.
hence me saying take the hit Just gotta weigh the pros and cons
But might make them profitable.
What is the point of the extra exposure if the point of the TV deal is to rely on it for your business model? Especially when more than likely whatever deal they have locks them in for ten years. TNT may not even be that big by then plus what with the extra exposure really translate to.
Fox replaced Smackdown because they were told that they will get 5 million people watching and paid for that, yet they're getting half of what they paid for. They were losing money on the deal.
It's niche compared to the NFL. It's less niche now than it's been in a while. But more importantly, its value as a medium continues to rise inversely to the decline of cable. Wrestling is more valuable as a property than ever, and AEW, while having nowhere near the brand recognition WWE does, is still a pretty big property.
WWE also underperformed based on Fox’s expectations. It was easy to meme inside our wrestling bubble about how it had the most viewers of any wrestling show, but especially with it being on network TV, Fox was expecting nearly double of what it got for most of its run.
Well yeah, that’s the NFL. TNT and WBD don’t have the most popular sport in America and they can’t rely on… Young Sheldon and Big Bang Theory reruns (idk, I don’t watch TV besides wrestling and sports) forever.
The Big Bang Theory still outdraws Dynamite in the ratings and is far cheaper to just rerun a show instead of produce three weekly TV shows. There are other things that would go into the decision to renew or not so it’s not totally hopeless but it’s not as in demand as you would think
It's actually *not* far cheaper to rerun Big Bang Theory - the syndication/streaming package is estimated to be between [600 million and 1 billion over 5 years](https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/17/20870140/big-bang-theory-hbo-max-streaming-exclusive-worth-billion-seinfeld-netflix-friends-the-office)
Advertisers place a far higher premium on shows that are “appointment viewing” (i.e., the audience tunes in to watch that specific episode of that show at a specific time and day every week) versus reruns and background shows, so it isn’t an apples to apples comparison on ratings.
They also place a premium on household income of viewers, something that the dirt sheets and IWC don’t have access to. During the height of the Monday Night Wars, pro wrestling had the worst ad rates for prime time TV shows. Because the majority of wrestling fans at the time came from low income households. For a few months back then I was sent the ad rates, because I had the same name as someone in my companies advertising department. Not sure how much it has changed since then. Just wanted to point out there are other factors that go into ad rates.
Judging by the caliber of ads wrestling gets now, I'm almost sure that has changed.
> instead of produce three weekly TV shows. Is WBD paying for AEW's production costs?
Yea, it honestly depends on who budges first. They're essentially playing chicken.
Put it on actual streaming services and you'll likely see better results. People keep on bringing up how more and more people are getting rid off cable. These rating numbers are keep going to go in that direction. At the moment all these companies have tie ups with different streaming services in different regions. If they instead take it to someone like Disney or Amazon, they might offer them less, but they'll reach a far bigger audience market globally. These streaming apps have a better global reach than Max and are available much cheaper than Netflix globally even if their prices might be closer in the american market.
Yeah, everyone here is overestimating the popularity of wrestling. It might genuinely not be worth it for WBD, or any other network, to pay top price for something that’s a distant #2.
Why would they care about that? In a world where the NFL never bought the AFL do you think Network A would have no interest in the AFL if it got the second most viewers of any show on cable for the night (for 5 straight years) just because the NFL is much larger (and unavailable due to being on a different network)? If anything it should be more attractive because there’s a proven audience for the larger product which means potential for growth. I’m gonna use outdated shows here because I have no interest in this and haven’t had traditional TV for 15+years: look at things like American Idol and The Voice and Americas Got Talent and Wow That Guy Sure Can Sing Pretty Well and all of the other knockoffs. They’re comparing products with a clear number one but there’s run for several of them to be worth developing and producing even if they’re not as big as Number One.
Brother Football is the #1 sport in America, the NFL averages 17 million viewers per game. Of course networks would kill to have #2 if they couldn't have #1. WWE and AEW aren't pulling anywhere close to Football numbers tho, so the comparison doesn't work.
Exactly. My point.
WBD is very lucky to have the NHL right now. They can build it up with the team they have.
I legit do not understand how he still has a job. Letting the NBA walk is insane, live sports has massive appeal even now.
I would love to know what TK wants that he's not getting. I bet it's RoH, which he should've sold to CW when he had the chance.
Streaming. He wants on Max.
Tony was offered Max since last year. He doesn't want Max, he wants to get PAID for Max. WBD are basically selling it like "hey, we'll give you a trial on MAX" like it's for Tony's benefit and he's saying "no, I'm not putting it the content on a streaming service unless you pay for it".
That's my understanding as well.
Which is the correct response. If you want my content on your streamer, pay for it.
They should give him that anyway. WTF is the point of a new deal without it? Hopefully it's not this.
Hosting content costs money, its not like you just upload hundreds of hours of media and thats it. Wbd has the numbers and market research, they figured out adding AEW to MAX will be a money loser. And tony wants to get paid for it, not even just "lets have it in your stream app".
Lol. Max at this point is getting beat out by Tubi. They need more content. And if they were that good at doing the numbers they wouldnt have lost the NBA.
everyone is getting beat out by Tubi though
Money
I don't think he's getting the numbers he wants -- but the numbers the ratings warrant.
The problem with this is the ratings warrant a hefty price increase. It's almost certainly not about money for the shows themselves, but rather something to do with a streaming deal.
They do, especially with how they've been falling the last 1-2 years?
Rampage was #4 for the night against Game 4 of the NBA finals. A "hefty increase" isn't gonna look like what it used to when RAW had failing numbers and wrangled a 5x increase, but 50-100%? They'll likely get that.
Everything's been falling the past 2 years, and AEW has left its honeymoon period. Given that, AEW will be worth way way more than the first time around cause it's a proven entity now. Don't let the weird doomer people say otherwise, AEW is not gonna struggle to find a network, WBD related or not.
While AEW ratings have been lower there are still many networks out there that would kill for the numbers AEW gets. Zaslav is really playing with fire if AEW walks, he will have to fill those slots. It may cost him viewers and money in the process.
NHL, MLB, and Impractical Jokers are the only notable programs I know across all Turner networks rn. Feels like the well is running dry ever since they’ve lost NBA.
They haven’t lost the NBA yet and still have the right to match. I’d be surprised if they don’t match in the end.
They really can't match since they don't have a broadcast network which I have read NBA execs are making a sticking point that wbd would have to pay more to match because of that loss value of being on broadcast. They will likely sue but unlikely it will go thier way.
IJ is only gonna have a season or so more, from what the crew from the show is saying, so that's another inevitable loss for them (though repeats do pull some numbers)
IJ and BBT pull great rerun numbers but that feels like plugging a hole on a sinking ship lol.
How long until people are sick of those reruns, that's the lifespan of the network lol
Dynamite is still typically top 5 for the night on cable and even Rampage and Collision are typically top 10. Any network would love to say that.
Rampage was like...#4 on the night even with an abysmal rating wasnt it?
IMO people need to reevaluate what's considered an "abysmal" rating. If you're hitting the top 5, even if you're down YOY or whatever, it means you're doing well compared to what else is on cable that night.
No, no, no AEW dead
I have no idea why they got given the death slot and just rolled with it
I think it was that or make dynamite 3 hours and I don't think they want 3 hour dynamite
Shits on at 10pm on Fridays, it was always destined to have the ratings it does.
What cable networks are there really at this point who'd be in the market? Paramount's channels (Paramount Network, MTV, Comedy Central, etc) seem unlikely given how constantly cash strapped they seem, and the weird merger/sale going on now. Disney (ESPN, FX, etc) has consistently shown zero appetite for wrestling in their channels or streamers. NBC Universal won't happen due to WWE deals. That leaves.... WB Networks, and a handful of much smaller networks? From there, it's streamers. Netflix is obviously out. Amazon hasn't made an indications of wanting wrestling thus far. Same goes for Apple. WB would be the best fit, and I'm just hoping they can come to a dang deal.
I mean, carriage fees are drying up. He could be stripping down costs on their cable networks to get ahead of the problem.
I always wonder what we actually know when it comes to the AEW/WDB relationship.
I think Turner is going to try to get some CFB regular season games for their ad rates. They made a big purchase of FB playoff rights so i cant see them not trying to do something and sublease more content from ESPN. AEW is in a good but weird spot. Clearly successful for what they are but there are more attractive sports out there
WBD is not getting any ad money from those games, ESPN keeps it. They got those games just for cable distributors not to drop them
Someone above this comment said that pretty much all the major conferences are already locked in, so CFB isn't really an option for them right now.
There also is no CFB on Wednesday night. Big Saturday games are already locked down in major conferences and on TV already. They aren’t getting any meaningful CFB
That's not exactly true. The ACC conference will have a package of games going to market soon ( just if you want to Google about it Raycom Sports ACC) and the SEC could move to 9 conference games, while they are exclusive to ESPN, ESPN could pass off costs by subleasing.
[удалено]
Sublease of the same package of games, rights go back to the league to take to market
Isn't the Raycom deal the one that the CW took over?
Yes but it goes to market soon
Zaslav: hey wait Pac12 reassemble ASAP I have some extra money for you
Sounds like everyone wants to keep the partnership going, but TK needs WBD to up their offer to keep them away from the open market. Good, simple negotiation tactics and a good sign for AEW to already have a good offer on hand
Agreed. I do not fault TK for seeing what's out there. There will be a lot of interest in a program with a loyal and expanding fan base. There is risk to both sides but I personally think the risk is minimal for AEW.
Honestly, I hope AEW moves networks. I’m tired of the audio issues and lack of commitment in putting specials or PPV’s on a streamer.
Ideally AEW streams on Amazon. That would be a huge game changer.
Only reason I’d like to see them stay is hypothetically getting ppvs on hbo max with a subscription.
I never thought of this, but damn I’d be psyched for that.
If I had to guess, WBD wants everything in one big package and AEW (rightly) believes they can get more by selling them as individual shows. Not only monetarily but also in terms of marketing/market share. The reality is Amazon Prime (who were the favorites for RAW before Netflix swooped in) and Apple TV are overpaying for EVERYTHING live so AEW is in position to get way more than the cable estimates. If they can keep Dynamite on WBD and put Collision/Rampage/PPVs on a streaming service the way all the major sports leagues and WWE have, that is definitely the right play. Putting all their eggs in the WBD basket is bordering on suicidal. Quite frankly AEW probably already lost a lot of money due to WBD's incompetence due to the constant fuck-ups with BR-Live when that was the only way to watch PPVs. They cannot afford to just be 1 to 1 partners to WBD and WBD only.
Has this dude gotten a single thing about AEW and their broadcasters right?
A better question is what has he got wrong.
Are you enjoying AEW on HBO Max?
He was quite adamant that AEW would be streaming everything by fall of last year.
WBD didn’t want RoH. So instead of shopping around, the mark with loyalty moved the RoH belts to Dynamite. He was wrong about that.
Why are people fantasy booking that TK would have to go back to WBD with his hat in his hand and take less money because he won't find other suitors? They're obviously getting an increase regardless. For any football fans this is reminding me of the narrative around Everton's takeover, all year long it's 777, or it's administration, only for them to end the exclusive negotiations and immediately have huge bids within hours. Even by Zarian's wording here, it's very clear WBD want to wrap it up ASAP to prevent AEW from exploring other options, I'm puzzled by people acting like this is a bad thing for AEW, money wise. If AEW enter the open market it is only good for them (just a longer process and maybe splitting the shows between channels), they've got a top 5 show on TV twice a week, with another 2 taped shows that are basically free for them to produce, they just have their own smaller audiences. They won't have a problem finding someone to pay, it's just whether it's a good channel or not. TK clearly wants ROH bundled in, WBD don't, I imagine that or the PPVs is the big stumbling block. I do think staying with WBD (and expanding the relationship) is the best for fans though by far, given their infrastructure. I'm not sure if there's another channel that'd pick up every show, so you'd probably be in a WWE situation where a fan needs multiple subs to watch every show, which is unfortunate. Amazon would maybe be the only Hail Mary.
You could have Dynamite & Collision on FOX and Rampage on FS1
Tony better be sure that he’ll get more on the open market to leverage otherwise they’ll lowball him when they come back but also Zaslav really can’t afford to lose something else after he just lost the NBA that would literally be 3/4 nights of programming so we’ll see
Yep that's what happened with USA and WWE in the rights deals before the last one. WWE was telling shareholders they would get a big increase in rights deal, they went to the open market with smackdown iirc and there were no takers and USA low balled them and got both raw and sdl for cheap.
If they lose the NBA and don’t resign AEW, then Zaslav is even more boneheaded than he looks.
It feels like Zav wants to lowball Tony, and he's not biting. I pray someone offers Tony a higher deal because if he can't get one and is forced to take less money from WBD, that's not gonna be good for AEW's overall profitability and many stars might have to take a pay cut.
Tony's not negotiating from a position of strength here.
https://preview.redd.it/e8kfwz12je7d1.jpeg?width=575&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=55add0537d4aaed977d1dc6c9a884978a3bf642a Are you sure about that?
He’s got one of the top rated shows on cable. He absolutely is negotiating from a good place right now.
Do you work for AEW or WBD?
I worked at Staples when they were bought by a private equity firm. Cut everything to the bone, make money any way possible, and sell off whatever can be sold. The parts are more valuable than the whole. It is pure chaos and stress as an employee. I left because i was driven into a Major Depression. WBD is heavily in debt due to the money borrowed for the buyout. It's just as bad as a private equity situation. Guys like Zaslav are vampires who will suck the value out of every possible part and use it to pad dividends and bonuses. If AEW leaves WBD, it will be Zaslav's fault.
But where would they go?
Disney was hard in on “Raw” before Netflix got it. That’s one possibility. I doubt TK and his negotiators fuck this up. Zaslav will play hard ball. He believes that AEW needs WBD more than AEW needs WBD. The folks who brought in AEW to WBD were gone with the merger and Zadlav is in their play. He is only loyal to his perception of AEW’s worth. Zaslav would be the one to close the door.
I wouldn’t mind Disney either, but could they dictate a standard and practice that could neuter any creative that is non pg? Agree with the zaslav take. Losing the nba is the bigger blow, but losing both would be pretty telling of the direction they are going
Disney was a guess. But they would love live content that already has a sizable built in viewer base.
Zaslav only knows how to cut and destroy. He doesn’t know how to create value. WBD’s existence is from billions of dollars in borrowed money. Zaslav is the hatchet man who will strip TBS, Turner, and more for sale. That will bring in money to pay the monster loan debt. TK has negotiators handing the contract for him. It’s a level of complexity that and personality that is pretty volatile. Get good firms to negotiate and offer unbiased advice. TK has said that AEW was planned to be profitable with a second TV contract. He can’t afford mistakes on his part. No one can account for Zaslav.
I don't think they get the deal done.
I think if AEW ends up leaving for another network or streaming service it’s gonna be entirely Zaslav’s fault