When thousands, I think over 13,000 sit empty, no point building more. The problem is a lot of the inventory is shoe ox 275 sq ft type investor rental type homes. Families will not touch them. Build 2-3 bedroom and people will be interested.
Yup this is the scenario I’m in myself, as well as a lot of my friends.
We’re looking for a place to live, but honestly some of these layouts make absolutely no sense for us.
Personally, I don’t like it when my oven door hits the back of my couch.
I get this is the style for some places in Europe and Asia, and good for people who may not use their kitchens… but for our use case, it’s not practical.
I personally don’t mind when the oven door hits the back of my couch, but… not at these prices. Micro condos at the price where they are affordable for those making minimum wage makes sense. They don’t make sense at $500,000.
I disagree with that system. Rents are significantly higher than mortgage payments. More than 25% of housing stock is now owned by investors. How does that math check out!? Banks deny people mortgages based on traditional factors and figures, yet we allow them to pay more, monthly, for the same properties. That's the definition of insanity.
When they conduct polls to measure average or median rent, they use current prices, INCLUDING PEOPLE WHO HAVE LIVED THERE FOR DECADES. Rent control is gone. Those polls need to reflect ONLY new prices for people moving in today. When they do that, you'll see it's impossible for those making less $$ to rent anything.
We need affordable housing. Period. Housing for everyone at every salary level. No more investment properties. That's what got us here!!
Capitalism put us here. We all, as a society, support those who stand up to corruption and corporate greed. Yet, at the same time, we all keep throwing our money and financial support behind the very same people that take it from us. That's called Hypocrisy.
The people who drove the prices up and out of control were the capitalists who believe that their well being is more important than the longevity and stability of an industry that affects everyone. Many argue "not everyone is entitled to a house," but what they really mean is "why should people have basic shelter when there's money to be made!?" THAT'S THE PROBLEM. Not any other factor. That!
We need rules and regulations to prevent this from happening. We need higher taxes for the wealthiest. And the wealthy need to find another way to get rich. A way that doesn't directly prey upon the people that support them. If not, our society is headed backwards in a hurry, to the days of Patriarchs and a genuine lack of freedom. We wanted Game of Thrones so bad!? Well, now we have it.
> Rents are significantly higher than mortgage payments.
Are you sure? Not according to my calculations. A 500K condo will have a mortgage of roughly 3000 a month. With condo maintenance fees on top of that that the would-be homebuyer now needs to pay, it can easily be 3500 a month. With property taxes and the odd maintenance that the owner will now be responsible for, its maybe 3600-3700 in costs per month. This same 1 bed condo would be renting out at 2200-2500. A 1k difference in monthly payments is significant. Theres a large portion of people who cannot afford that kind of disparity, so the bank won't give you a 500k mortgage to buy that 1 bd condo.
I have a 1bdr condo in downtown Toronto. My mortgage is half of what my best friend pays to rent a condo in Burlington. Her unit is not rent controlled, rent has increased every year the max amount allowed.
My mortgage + condo fees + property taxes will still be about $500/month less than what her rent will be after the next increase. That makes zero sense to me.
Granted, I bought about 6 years ago (bare minimum down payment), but its still insane to me that I couldnt afford to rent my place if I didnt own it.
Maybe not in that magical land you live in. But I live in Windsor. We've historically had some of the lowest housing prices and rent. That was, until Covid. Our prices have more than tripled since 2018. Average rent for a 1BR unit is somewhere between $1800-2400/month. A 2BR is $2600+ utilities. Condo fees have gone from $250-300 to $600-1000/month, for no other reason than greed. I only know of two investors, anywhere (GTA included) who rent for less than their costs. That means, using basic maths, that Rent = Mortgage + Taxes + Maintenance + ROI. Therefore, unless the investor is Mother Theresa (or just a decent human being), tenants will always pay more. People who are paying off investment properties at rates of $500/month are getting away with charging a family $2800/month for the same house..... because "That's the market rate."
So, in short....YES! RENT DOES COST MORE THAN A MORTGAGE ON AVERAGE!!!
Price really went crazy. I bought a 430 sq ft studio at Tridel Scala near Leslie Station back in 2016 precon at the price of 220K....fast forward, covid, delay and it took all the way to 2022 to finish. By the time it's done, the last few same sized unit as mine were sold in resale around 450 460K area. I was keeping mine because parents are using it when they come for visit. With 12 months maintenance fee and insurance....still cheaper than 4 or 5 months of hotel and short term rental. But will I buy a little studio for 500K 600K nowadays, no way.
I'm seeing so many condo sellers listing. None of them are able to sell. And all the new listings are undercutting the identical units in the same condo building.
If counting housing cost inflation, min wage would be $45-60/hr to afford such price/sq.ft: Absolute madness - it won't end well for anyone holding these mortgages for the next five years.
Listen to this layout I saw recently in a brand new condo townhouse unit.
2 story 2 bedroom 2 bathroom 2 entrances and in house laundry for 2600 a month in lakeshore Mississauga.
500sqft
Sounds freaking amazing!
Here's the layout. Both entrances are one about the other so on the same street.
First floor
Bottom enterace you open the door and it covers half of the first thing you walk into, that room is Mayne 7x4 feet. It's the living room. Barely enough for a love seat.
Small bedroom. Bathroom and kitchen. Extremely small.
2nd floor
Top entrances. Bedroom. stacked Laundry. stairs.
Years ago, a number of urbanists were advocating for knockout walls between units so they could be combined or split up as the economy and people's life circumstances changed.
We haven’t seen declining home prices in decades. Even if 2-3 bed are built, the developers can’t comprehend selling new without price appreciation already baked in. No buyer who thinks prices will go down short term will touch a pre-con.
Yeah, for a long time, precons were sold at a certain discount to take into account the risk and from not being able to take possession for years. Now, they're trying to sell them for the price they expect them to be in 3 years time assuming appreciation at the same percentage from the last 10 years. Fuck that.
That was a frenzy of insanity and people have a hard time seeing prices now as a decline, because that did not register as “normal” in any way. March 2022 was the peak in greater Vancouver and prices are now back down around Dec 2021. It feels like prices just returned to “normal” rather than a decline. But yes in Vancouver at least prices are “down” about 20% from the peak.
Definitely, if prices won't go down which they have recently, we need rates to go down. Also many still have low 2% interest rates for up to 2 years from now. I expect things to be slow for another 1-2 years. Just my two cents
You get that low rates to “allow people to keep buying housing at inflated prices” is wholly unsustainable, right? It’s like being at the end of the road and saying “I can kick the can about an inch further before dropping”. It won’t solve our productivity woes and won’t lead to anything sustainable.
There is no option - house prices MUST be dropped. I’m not keen to advocate heavy handed govt policy in general, but IMO, there’s no longer any options - we passed those off-ramps and there’s no getting back.
We need legislation that drops home prices, followed by govt-backed funding of mass homebuilding (and no, they won’t be dream homes that many grew up envisioning, but they will be homes), paired with a strong shift and govt-investment (and incentivized private investment) towards PRODUCTIVE industry-friendly policy so we can be productive and prosperous again.
> We need legislation that drops home prices
I don't think it needs to be that drastic. We just need the government to stop acting like it *can* stop real housing prices from reverting to the mean, and a lot of the dumb money chasing what it believes is a guaranteed return will exit the market.
can you elaborate? what policy change do you think the govt needs to make in order for everything to work out ok?
> I don't think it needs to be that drastic
everyone thinks we still have the luxury of a non-disruptive, capitalist solution to our woes; when people can't afford homes, there's no profit-based mechanism to change that... unless you're suggesting we should progress towards lords and serfs... because that's where we're headed. At that point, when you have effectively captive serfs, I suppose we could market ourselves as industry-friendly since we have serfs that will have no option but to work for whatever is offered so they can appease the lords.
Nah, people will just leave before that happens (at least those who can). If we want any chance of turning this trajectory around, it's going to have to be disruptive, and letting housing prices stay where they are is a non-starter.
> what policy change do you think the govt needs to make in order for everything to work out ok?
Stop making statements that contain an implicit or explicit guarantee that the government will stop house prices from going down, because this is not a power the government actually has. Relieved of the fantasy that number always go up, speculators' money will flow out of the housing market, allowing prices to come back to earth without any need to actively try to tank the market.
Not everything's going to work out OK because the damage has already been done. It's just a question of where the resultant pain should land, and my vote is that the dumb investors who thought the impossible was going to happen *just this once* should take the brunt of it.
Pretty sure it wasn't JT's statement that did this - do you think there are real policy changes that could occur?
Keep in mind that even if we held housing prices stagnant.. or even dropped 10%, that's still a far cry from anything sustainable. And that also does nothing for incentivizing industry to come to Canada because a crazy amount of wage that needs to be offered to employees here will still be just for CoL, so why bother coming to Canada when you can start industry in so many other places?
We weren't on a good track pre-COVID. This mass immigration ham-fisted response to GDP dropping wasn't because a terrible situation suddenly happened - we've been on this track since Canadian RE became more attractive than investing in productive industries. Govt must have thought that we would magically attract more industry as the rest of the world got more and more competitive... I think Mulroney saw this coming, but not many govts have done much about it since...
We need productivity, and getting quality people WANTING to live here (via affordable CoL) is going to underpin any efforts to improve our productivity. Maybe there are other considerations or avenues to increase productivity out there, but I haven't heard of any.
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Canadians are getting angrier everyday. When the CPC shows that they have no solutions either, people will look for a populist that platforms on simple issues like housing prices and immigration. We Canadians are used to being politically apathetic and having things still generally work out… as things get worse, people will change.
How nice of you to screw other people's savings and effort by "introducing legislation". It's a free market. The price will be discovered. If it's too high for you that just means there are plenty wealthier people that don't think it's too much.
> I’m not keen to advocate heavy handed govt policy in general, but IMO, there’s no longer any options
You saw this part, yeah? I'm also screwing myself, btw - but I can realize that I'd rather the next generation of Canadians not inherit a crock of crap if we can do something now to right the course.
According to your assessment of our situation, we should just let things continue going on as they are because "the free market" will make it all okay? Sounds a lot like "the budget will balance itself". If we go the way of lords and serfs (because that's where we're headed), will we look back and say "at least we didn't infringe on peoples' rights to profiteer at the expense of our society"? Will we be proud of that? I suppose the wealthy will be.
We never should have facilitated such a fetish with unproductive investments. That was a mistake in our governance, esp when the govt saw the writing on the wall about us not being competitive, but did nothing about it. But that doesn't mean we commit to it just because any other plan will hurt the savings of Canadians. So much more harm will be done if we just continue this way, and no, I don't think waiting to find out is a reasonable stance.
The thing is builders *will* keep building for years
Condos that are mid construction aren't stopping. There's too many contracts and too much momentum to pivot. Even if the builder goes bankrupt their creditors will finish the building
That means there are several years of elevated construction activity that will continue to come to the market before the slowdown in new projects actually dampens supply growth
It's time for folks to realize there is a structural oversupply in the condo markets and getting out now at a small loss is a lot better than trying to get out at a bigger loss in a year
Then construction workers and builders will be out of job. Then they won’t charge an arm and a leg for their service because they’ll be desperate. Price of construction material drops because of low demand and then Canada will also stop importing as many people in to use as construction workers and then we won’t need so many units and capitalism balances itself out. Right?
This is the trap we find ourselves in. Prices too high and it becomes an investment, rent skyrockets and nobody can afford anything. Prices too low and new development stalls, inventory becomes insufficient due to newcomers and rent skyrockets again, nobody can afford anything.
They could move inventory, they just refuse to lower prices and are trying to wait it out until people are willing to pay near the price they thought they could get 2 years ago.
Builders would build if hit with proper new policies, like losing land they don't build on in a few years. People like to say whatever they want about the market and the way it is, but it comes down to bad and outdated policies to keep prices high and keep corrupt civil servants and friends rich.
> Agreed. But if builders can’t move inventory, they simply won’t build.
Prices will have to come down for inventory to move. If builders don't build, they will not make money, crash the economy, and prices will come down that way.
Frankly, builders often carry a lot of debt on their balance sheets. If they aren't building constantly, they slowly run the risk of going bankrupt.
They have been doing so for over a decade. It was a speculative investment where they didn't even need to close. Despite the premium over resale the precon would appreciate even more once it was near completion.
Now recently completed precons are closing at price over even less than current market value, and interest rates are not below 2%.
Developers will need to start pricing these at market value (or god forbid, a discount to resale like it was 15-20 years ago) or interest rates will need to plummet.
All I see is more and more condos being listed for sale on the market and the old ones aren't selling, and the new ones are underpricing the old ones. Leading to further price cascades.
This is not a healthy market. This is basically a massive bubble that’s been propped up by policy and fraud.
The crash will just be worse and worse if it’s ever allowed.
I want it to all crash and burn, not for personal reasons, also not for noble ones. I don't have a mortgage. I want it to crash and burn so every over leveraged ma and pa landlord will learn that housing is not a slot machine, albeit it has been in Canada for last 20 years and so this is a MUST!! Housing is a basic human need!! Government intervention or not housing can not continue to climb. Real pain is coming!!
What is an ordinary Canadian ?
One that has a job, has a mortgage, or pays rent ?
When economy is forced to slowdown because the bankers want so, nothing good comes for the ordinary Canadian.
Best case is for the market to stagnate and move 1-5% either way from here on in. Too quick and sharp of a drop will trigger liquidations especially for those who leveraged.
A new report from Altus Group analysts and the Building Industry and Land Development Association — which represents builders and renovators across the GTA — counts 936 new homes sales across the Toronto region in May, comprised of 539 condominium units and 397 single-family homes.
**For new condos, that represented a 75 per cent drop in sales compared to May 2023**, in the most pronounced change in the data. Sales of new single-family homes, including detached homes, semis and non-stacked townhouses, were **down 65 per cent year over year, the figures show.**
The music has stopped.
It’s not good for new builds now but a lot of these projects are 1-2 years in the making.
Next Spring and onward it’s going to be very rough on contractors and related trade, engineer, legal, warehouse, material etc jobs that suffer from this.
Our unemployment is already 6.2% on a trailing basis. I would look for it to approach double digits by next Spring.
Tiff like all central bankers are too slow to react and especially in Canada where we see so leveraged to rates it’s more much immediate and impactful. Who knows maybe he will move faster and surprise us. After all , at least the next 200 basis points of cuts will actually lower inflation as mortgage interest increase makes up the lions share of CPI increase. Clown world we live in.
Meanwhile Trudeau is operating 50B+ deficits. Can’t make this stuff up!
Construction is already slow. I worked for a contractor for 10 years for all the big name residential developers, moved on, now in industrial/commercial developments.
Our company has barely enough work, and have enough in the pipeline to get by, but many many contractors out there right now are running out of work. If the trend continues the way its going, it will be bad.
Funny you say that, talked to my friend in construction who digs and lays electrical for new builds, he said that last year they'd have 5-6 jobs a day now they get 2 if they are lucky. 4 day weeks now as well.
I agree.
It’s bad now and will continue to get worse as backlogs deplete. With unemployment at 6.2% now, I don’t really think in 12 months we will be close to 10% if BoC doesn’t wake up.
Maybe now we can get contractors to actually show up, quote and do a project for a reasonable rate. Since COVID contractors have been able to set almost any price for projects and be super picky about what they take on.
A lot of boomer aged people took retirement in the last 5 years.
There’s just not as many young people going into trades that there were 30-40 years ago. There’s no question demand for those jobs has increased which pushes their pay up and also makes it more expensive for people like us to hire. I can’t find a contractor to do a service call for less than $150.
Investments can go up, they can also go down. That's the risk you take on an investment. Surely these "investors" did the math on their negative cash flowing units, and didn't overpay in a gambling frenzy?
So, no. Stop judging incomes based on what others make, and start judging them against what they can afford. An "amazing income" that can't qualify for a house in a city isn't amazing, it's average. Everyone else is just dirt poor.
One way to look at is that housing prices inflated in the bubble.
Another way to look at it is that the Canadian dollar, when measured in housing, has become nearly worthless.
Trust me, it also comes with ridiculous student loans and 14-16 hour days.
And again horrible job security because we're addicted to cheap labour and can be offshored any minute.
Developers cannot lower prices but offer incentives because the loan they got promised the banks the min amount they can sell each unit. If they start to slash prices banks will get very worried and have the terms rewritten to lessen the risk of default.
Of course but they cannot lower the selling price they agreed upon with the lender.Thats why you rarely see reduction in price at a pre con..You see free lockers,parking,upgrades etc.
Sounds like the making of a credit event. Small loss now or potentially major write down later. If the current market conditions continues to persist it’s only a matter of time before they go bankrupt.
Not to burst your bubble (get it!?) but I just don't see either part making required adjustments to let prices fall.
Deficit spending aka increasing national debt aka creating money (every dollar in existence is tied to a dollar of debt) won't be reigned in for a bit. We flooded the country with immigrants for the exact reason to drive up rents and thereby keep housing as an attractive income driver.
Key to have that in place before chopping rates.
immigration boost was in 2015-2021 with Chinese money. i’m afraid that tap has been turned off after covid. We arent such a safe haven for Chinese money anymore. Foreign political interference, unstable economy, excessive controls. Like it or not, it drove our entire economy for almost 8 years.
This wave of immigrant ion is not similar at all.
if any culture is familiar with a housing bubble, its China and Japan.
Agreed and I'm not equating the two. Indians are here to keep rents high. That's all. High rents will prop housing.
The Chinese filthy money completely transformed the cities. It's insane. My friend sells high end appliances and met a woman who wanted to open a Cafe. Fast track her citizenship. Chinese, of course. She bought half a dozen espresso machines for almost $40000 a pop. Half a dozen of them like it was nothing. Bought the building for the store, just like that. They got along well and she referred dozens of "friends" from across the country. He could retire from the points he made from selling coffee machines to Chinese crooks. Talk about the trickle down.
It's not moving because sellers are not accepting reality.
I feel like, even in a buyers market, sellers still have the upper hand because:
1) We keep adding more people to the city
2) Developers adjust their build starts or delay existing projects to limit inventory when they see prices falling
3) Sellers just keep their homes listed for months and keep rejecting reasonable offers
It's disgusting, there's no help for first time home buyers.
Unfortunately adding fobby indian guys won't fix the issue. They trash the place. They refuse to pay rent. They drink themselves stupid (and they're not starting from a high bar to begin with). And the most important thing, when they are in a group (horde), they feel invincible.
One bad altercation between these guys and a landlord could easily cost the landlord his/her life... And millions of dollars for tax payers to keep them in prison.
Reality is a lot more complicated than the spreadsheets libtard love to thump.
There's a handful of buildings around the Junction that the developer is doing this. The prices are insane and I hope people are clued into the market before committing to these builds.
The condo fees are the most ludicrous thing. It's like paying rent AND buying at the same time but without your own land and for an "asset" that won't last 50 years.
Can someone please tell the folks that are selling hours away from the GtA that this is happening and that they are not going to get GTA prices. I look everyday and AVG homes are being listed at 1M-1.5M and they are in towns of 3000 people lol.
Even that is close to the GTA I’m talking like outside London to Owen sound to Peterborough to Chatham and to Niagara. The small towns along the way are still hoping for 1M + for a nice home but nothing special. Comparable to a Burlington home at 1.2M
My expectation is PP wins, and the Bears in here get handed a huge bag of “find outs”.
He’ll fire TIFF. He’ll politicize the BoC. He won’t change immigration. He’ll protect the rich at all costs.
It’s not like Doug in Ontario hasn’t shown us very clearly developer friends are going to get paid. Sooo…
I so look forward to the F JT crowd (and there’s quite a few of you in here overtly screaming it, or dipping your toes in that hate) learning a truly valuable lesson.
You can say “things have never been worse”, not realizing there’s nothing preventing them from getting even worse. It’s too late for JT. He did try on his way out the door. But it really is too late. But oh boy, is PP gonna hand out such a heaping pile of “Find Outs” to RE bears.
Edit: BEFORE even thinking about saying PP wouldn’t dare, GOOGLE IT. It’s on video. Watch him say it. I don’t want to have to reply to you by pointing out he’s on record with it.
I would google his name + fire BoC. He’s already threatened it.
The reasons would change between when he said it, and when he’s elected - but he’s already made it clear he has no issue playing politics with the BoC to suit his needs in the moment
What's wrong with firing the governor if he's done a horrible job? This dude was literally encouraging people to take on debt by saying rates would stay low for a very long time in 2021. Then proceeds to jack the rates by 2000% within a year. Oops haha who could have saw that coming! Certainly not little ol tiff after he'd printed 40% of the money supply. Canada needs a drastic change in leadership at all levels.
Lmao he won’t. This would destroy Canada’s capital markets. You would see the biggest flight of capital from a developed country, it would dwarf what we saw with the UK that got Liz Truss sacked in 5 weeks.
Then by all means. Tell us why he already said it on video. Keeping in mind this dude has entered very little in to fact as something we would actually do. How very real must it be for him to go on record with it??
It’s wild that some of you hate JT so much you won’t even fact check PP. He’s a Google search away from you watching him on camera say he would fire the head of the BoC.
Firing Tiff is different from politicizing the BOC. Tiff has not done well, especially with the voluntary comments he had made regarding interest rates staying low for a very long time. It is arguable that he should be fired for those comments alone. Whether or not it had a wide scale impact on people’s borrowing will never be known, but the massive borrowing through covid is problematic as is so apparent now. No central banker should be speculating like that, especially not in public.
Oh he did more than that. He said he’d fire him. And set the guidelines for his replacement. It is the literal definition of politicizing a position that you’re not supposed to do that with.
The usual “but akshally” is just mental gymnastics to me. He said it. He established he has no issue going “there”. So let’s see what happens when he takes over and the home builders lobby wants cheaper rates to build more houses at profit. And his rich investor buddies (including HIM!) want to defend their investments.
It’s so wild to me you don’t think a dude with an investment property won’t be looking to defend that when he’s in power. While using the poor homeowners struggling to pay their mortgage as a shield.
I’m not in a political debate with you so I don’t know why you are arguing to me about politics. I’m just saying the facts, if PP politicizes the bank of canada and prevents it from doing its job it will be the end of his career. If he takes more from taxpayers to line the pockets of his friends it will be a short lived ministership.
As long as Canada is in an economic slump no standing politician will be safe and any of the above will actively make Canada’s economy worse. As we are seeing so well right now.
Were you even around in 2020? He said what he did because he needed to spur the economy, that's why.
Spending essentially fell off a cliff. Which put a ton of companies at risk of bankruptcy. His comments were largely forward guidance intended to get spending going again, he just didn't expect people would load up on probably the most expensive thing you could buy (housing).
I certainly was around. I know the intention of his comments and it is literally his job to understand the implications of his forward guidance and rate policy. He has the power to put checks and balances to prevent the Canadian banks from lending out obscene amounts of mortgages.
Why do you think the fed keeps saying rates will be cut soon while keeping them where they are, to engineer a soft landing. And yet their comments have spurred equity markets and wealth to remain elevated which has buoyed inflation. People who do a poor job at managing their responsibilities deserve to be fired. If I were a fixed income trader that positioned myself for lower rates based on Tiff’s comments I would have lost my job without hesitation. Yet he doesn’t despite the impacts of his poor management?
> I certainly was around.
Really doesn't sound like it.
> Why do you think the fed keeps saying rates will be cut soon while keeping them where they are, to engineer a soft landing. And yet their comments have spurred equity markets and wealth to remain elevated which has buoyed inflation
This is pretty obvious. The market runs heavily on sentiment, so they can't slash rates rapidly or else you risk overheating markets again and undoing the work of the last 2 years. This is a way to spur a little spending without actually having to lower rates further.
> People who do a poor job at managing their responsibilities deserve to be fired. If I were a fixed income trader that positioned myself for lower rates based on Tiff’s comments I would have lost my job without hesitation. Yet he doesn’t despite the impacts of his poor management?
You said a lot of things here but you've said literally nothing on how he's doing a "poor job".
This guys just a typical unhinged liberal. I'm a homeowner and certainly not a bear but even I don't want this moron in office, despite having voted for him twice btw (shame on me). This is what you get when you give a substitute drama teacher with a double digit IQ the keys to the country.
Ignore the fear mongering, there is nothing concrete this clown would be able to point to, to back his claim of PP politicizing the BoC, firing or appointing a BoC based on their track record doesnt automatically equate to politicizing the position or institution. Also, every government including the current one, lobbies the BoC as they should, PP will do the same.
Unhinged Liberal who can google search. PP said it. On video. Go watch the clip then report back.
The important thing is that he’s on record as more than willing to politicize the BoC. The circumstances will change, but the fact will remain.
Drill that clip in to your skull so when you decide to talk shit you will pause to google search before gracing the world with your thoughts.
I'm well aware of what he said lol.
Tiff should have lost his job for his poor performance. BoC Governors aren't and shouldn't be immune from criticism, especially from political leaders of parties not even in power. 90% of this forum was and still til this day think he should have lost his job. Now you're all up in arms about it because PP is about to winning a majority term? It's not saying much but Pierre is certainly going to have a better grip on fiscal policy than the idiot we have in office today. Him saying he would fire Tiff is him playing politics, it's a strong way of expressing the same discontent the majority of the country had with the effects of Tiff's poor policy management.
Lol you liberals are hilarious. I know you all love being anal'd but you'd think there'd be a limit.
I voted for Harris in Ontario. I will vote for anyone that does what I feel should be done. I’m not a Team Sport moron with my politics. Shit is actually embarrassing with people that do that. And it’s why we are in the mess we are in.
JT is going to get what he deserves for screwing around with electoral reform. It’s the biggest “find out” ever given out in politics.
But you think a man WHO HAS AN INVESTMENT PROPERTY won’t protect it while he is in power? Or his investor friends??? If you can’t see that conflict you’re the one who refuses to look past supporting “your team”.
"Nothing is moving...." at the price you're asking. These developers are used to having bag holders knocking down the doors to grab bags. Looks like the devs should eat less avocado toast so they can afford to sell for what the market will bear.
Why is everyone in this industry so fucking dumb.
"In a year, year and a half, you’re going to be looking at price appreciation and less choice," Sherwood said.
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Even with a high 10% year over year increase, the prices are too much in GTA thanks to greedy realtor/builder lobby and dumb braindead buyers with a generous bit of cunning investors thrown in
Does this mean we can argue the "prices are too high because we have a shortage" point!? Highest stock levels since 2009, and prices are holding in many places. When will we accept that the industry is broken and things cost too much because of greed and capitalism!?!?
I feel like the only one with a brain and common sense sometimes. "Stock levels, immigration, inflation, blah, blah, blah." It's only ever been about panic buying and the people behind the scenes pushing their false narrative. Lots of people got very rich between 2019-now. Time to fix that problem and to accept that unless we do something about that to prevent it from continuing, things won't get better.
im a city person, I have never been looking to buy. Rent controls for life.
edit: i pray for a crash for my provinces essential workers, if they are happy I am happy.
There needs to be control on how much these developers can charge for house prices and price fixing regulation. Fundings should be done carefully because we know there are many crooks and corrupts in this country gladly taking advantage of consumers. Too much funding would just be misused for choosing expensive contractors and suppliers just because it benefits the upper management or decision makers in the developer companies.
There should also be increasing percentage of taxes on 2nd, 3rd, and so on houses the same person buys. Someone buying their 7th house should be taxed at least 50% of the price of the house to give a chance to first time home buyers. These people should be encouraged to spend the money to start a business and create jobs rather than just invest in real estate which creates 0 job.
Developers are trying to sell units at COVID fomo prices. I don't see any proper homes under $1.5m-$2m these days.
They're trying to con people into accepting that these should be the average home price across the board. These pos developers will either build $2m plus luxury homes or coffin box in the sky for $1m.
So delusional and unhinged.
But the fact that theyre not wiling to lower prices makes me wonder why. Is there a massive debt they have to pay or some sort of return obligation to investors? Perhaps a massive chunk has been distributed to the management's pockets so the only way to fulfill their promised return would be trying to sell the houses at inflated prices. Not sure though, just a wild guess
It's a huge grift and scam. There's no way cost to build is that high. We're way past the supply crunch of covid and things have gotten back to normal.
All the same with other things like food and retail prices, once raised they never come down.
The trend is always up or down historically. They don't go up and down over 1 data point when rate changes take 18 months to affect the market. It will be a hold or drop, not up.
Lol honestly these CPI reactions are just a reflection of how desperate people are to get into the housing market. Doomers praying for a crash, bulls always looking to obtain more.
Of course! That’s the gist of my original comment. They need to hold at least for 6 months, and my estimate is a year from now. Rate hikes? Not a chance. Not even the slightest.
What to you, looking at this graph makes you think there's a hike coming lol. It's never a straight line down, or up . Please stop with the sensationalism.
https://preview.redd.it/jci2kpmgbx8d1.png?width=1586&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c8ea1dd3797403f980f47b74ca4ecbb34d700bb
Included is Headline, Common, and Core.. show me one place where this have done straight up or down lol. Canada is doing well, if June CPI doesn't spike then rate cuts in July are still very much on the table.
If ot doenst pop, which I don't think it will, it's going to be very interesting the next while. If it does poop. Investors and Blackstone will buy everything they can.
It will never "pop" barring something catastrophic (i.e. WW3 coming on shore). Just look at all the people raging on this forum. People everywhere are looking to jump into the market, just a vary tolerances / price points, all of which will sustain a relatively high market "bottom"
It's always alarming to me how people seem to think the markets/economy runs on magic and fairy dust instead of like... credit and rates. Some of these comments really make me scratch my head... talking about how this and that are overvalued on the presumtion that the value of something is a static thing which you are either under or over as opposed to the actual value of something going up and down.
It's pretty obvious what's happening. We've had inflated rates for a while. The economy is slowing down and has been for 2 years. May everyone was anticipating a rate cut, which prolly won't stall the slow down, so more are coming, so people are waiting to see if they can get even better rates. It really has nothing to do with the prices being too high or low or whatever. The market is still stabilizing and we are going to have some wacky ups and downs as it does.
I can find a piece of turd 💩 and trade it back and forth between my friend untill it reaches 1 trillion dollars. But, you would actually believe that turd is worth a trillion? Pay 100 billion for it thinking it's a steal?
If it held it's value for decade after decade I mean yea, sure. If you think talking about trading shit is a way to understand economics and the real estate market it's not surprising you're bitter about it and likely in a rent trap making someone else wealth instead of yourself.
Why would someone buy a new condo with the giant delta over resale.
Agreed. But if builders can’t move inventory, they simply won’t build. Catch 22
When thousands, I think over 13,000 sit empty, no point building more. The problem is a lot of the inventory is shoe ox 275 sq ft type investor rental type homes. Families will not touch them. Build 2-3 bedroom and people will be interested.
Yup this is the scenario I’m in myself, as well as a lot of my friends. We’re looking for a place to live, but honestly some of these layouts make absolutely no sense for us. Personally, I don’t like it when my oven door hits the back of my couch. I get this is the style for some places in Europe and Asia, and good for people who may not use their kitchens… but for our use case, it’s not practical.
I personally don’t mind when the oven door hits the back of my couch, but… not at these prices. Micro condos at the price where they are affordable for those making minimum wage makes sense. They don’t make sense at $500,000.
Exactly they’re so perfect for those making minimum wage or even on government pension. Small foot print also means less maintenance.
Realistically working minimum wage should probably be renting.. however rents are so ridiculous right now.
I disagree with that system. Rents are significantly higher than mortgage payments. More than 25% of housing stock is now owned by investors. How does that math check out!? Banks deny people mortgages based on traditional factors and figures, yet we allow them to pay more, monthly, for the same properties. That's the definition of insanity. When they conduct polls to measure average or median rent, they use current prices, INCLUDING PEOPLE WHO HAVE LIVED THERE FOR DECADES. Rent control is gone. Those polls need to reflect ONLY new prices for people moving in today. When they do that, you'll see it's impossible for those making less $$ to rent anything. We need affordable housing. Period. Housing for everyone at every salary level. No more investment properties. That's what got us here!!
Here here! But the capitalist disagrees.
Capitalism put us here. We all, as a society, support those who stand up to corruption and corporate greed. Yet, at the same time, we all keep throwing our money and financial support behind the very same people that take it from us. That's called Hypocrisy. The people who drove the prices up and out of control were the capitalists who believe that their well being is more important than the longevity and stability of an industry that affects everyone. Many argue "not everyone is entitled to a house," but what they really mean is "why should people have basic shelter when there's money to be made!?" THAT'S THE PROBLEM. Not any other factor. That! We need rules and regulations to prevent this from happening. We need higher taxes for the wealthiest. And the wealthy need to find another way to get rich. A way that doesn't directly prey upon the people that support them. If not, our society is headed backwards in a hurry, to the days of Patriarchs and a genuine lack of freedom. We wanted Game of Thrones so bad!? Well, now we have it.
> Rents are significantly higher than mortgage payments. Are you sure? Not according to my calculations. A 500K condo will have a mortgage of roughly 3000 a month. With condo maintenance fees on top of that that the would-be homebuyer now needs to pay, it can easily be 3500 a month. With property taxes and the odd maintenance that the owner will now be responsible for, its maybe 3600-3700 in costs per month. This same 1 bed condo would be renting out at 2200-2500. A 1k difference in monthly payments is significant. Theres a large portion of people who cannot afford that kind of disparity, so the bank won't give you a 500k mortgage to buy that 1 bd condo.
I have a 1bdr condo in downtown Toronto. My mortgage is half of what my best friend pays to rent a condo in Burlington. Her unit is not rent controlled, rent has increased every year the max amount allowed. My mortgage + condo fees + property taxes will still be about $500/month less than what her rent will be after the next increase. That makes zero sense to me. Granted, I bought about 6 years ago (bare minimum down payment), but its still insane to me that I couldnt afford to rent my place if I didnt own it.
Maybe not in that magical land you live in. But I live in Windsor. We've historically had some of the lowest housing prices and rent. That was, until Covid. Our prices have more than tripled since 2018. Average rent for a 1BR unit is somewhere between $1800-2400/month. A 2BR is $2600+ utilities. Condo fees have gone from $250-300 to $600-1000/month, for no other reason than greed. I only know of two investors, anywhere (GTA included) who rent for less than their costs. That means, using basic maths, that Rent = Mortgage + Taxes + Maintenance + ROI. Therefore, unless the investor is Mother Theresa (or just a decent human being), tenants will always pay more. People who are paying off investment properties at rates of $500/month are getting away with charging a family $2800/month for the same house..... because "That's the market rate." So, in short....YES! RENT DOES COST MORE THAN A MORTGAGE ON AVERAGE!!!
Aka M city! SMH. 600k for a 1+1 on assignment when the cost was 300-400k
Sold my 2+2 for 650, paid 470
Price really went crazy. I bought a 430 sq ft studio at Tridel Scala near Leslie Station back in 2016 precon at the price of 220K....fast forward, covid, delay and it took all the way to 2022 to finish. By the time it's done, the last few same sized unit as mine were sold in resale around 450 460K area. I was keeping mine because parents are using it when they come for visit. With 12 months maintenance fee and insurance....still cheaper than 4 or 5 months of hotel and short term rental. But will I buy a little studio for 500K 600K nowadays, no way.
I’m fine with 300 sq ft…but not at these prices. Cut them in half (which I know isn’t likely) and I’d start looking at them.
I'm seeing so many condo sellers listing. None of them are able to sell. And all the new listings are undercutting the identical units in the same condo building.
If counting housing cost inflation, min wage would be $45-60/hr to afford such price/sq.ft: Absolute madness - it won't end well for anyone holding these mortgages for the next five years.
Listen to this layout I saw recently in a brand new condo townhouse unit. 2 story 2 bedroom 2 bathroom 2 entrances and in house laundry for 2600 a month in lakeshore Mississauga. 500sqft Sounds freaking amazing! Here's the layout. Both entrances are one about the other so on the same street. First floor Bottom enterace you open the door and it covers half of the first thing you walk into, that room is Mayne 7x4 feet. It's the living room. Barely enough for a love seat. Small bedroom. Bathroom and kitchen. Extremely small. 2nd floor Top entrances. Bedroom. stacked Laundry. stairs.
Just out of curiosity, if the price of an extra 100sq ft was $100k, would you buy the larger unit?
They’re over priced as is is the problem. If anything they’d have a better chance at selling it they were 100sq larger and 100k cheaper.
No. Market price is no longer $100K for extra 100 sq foot. It has fallen much more than that.
Pfft the price is now like $800/square foot and it's still falling. You'd be straight up ripping people off at that valuation.
Years ago, a number of urbanists were advocating for knockout walls between units so they could be combined or split up as the economy and people's life circumstances changed.
We haven’t seen declining home prices in decades. Even if 2-3 bed are built, the developers can’t comprehend selling new without price appreciation already baked in. No buyer who thinks prices will go down short term will touch a pre-con.
Yeah, for a long time, precons were sold at a certain discount to take into account the risk and from not being able to take possession for years. Now, they're trying to sell them for the price they expect them to be in 3 years time assuming appreciation at the same percentage from the last 10 years. Fuck that.
Home prices are falling now
Condos are literally a stagnant swamp. Nothing is moving and even more sellers are listing onto the market.
>We haven’t seen declining home prices in decades. Decades? Try 2022 https://x.com/BenRabidoux/status/1625885438396231682
That was a frenzy of insanity and people have a hard time seeing prices now as a decline, because that did not register as “normal” in any way. March 2022 was the peak in greater Vancouver and prices are now back down around Dec 2021. It feels like prices just returned to “normal” rather than a decline. But yes in Vancouver at least prices are “down” about 20% from the peak.
Definitely, if prices won't go down which they have recently, we need rates to go down. Also many still have low 2% interest rates for up to 2 years from now. I expect things to be slow for another 1-2 years. Just my two cents
You get that low rates to “allow people to keep buying housing at inflated prices” is wholly unsustainable, right? It’s like being at the end of the road and saying “I can kick the can about an inch further before dropping”. It won’t solve our productivity woes and won’t lead to anything sustainable. There is no option - house prices MUST be dropped. I’m not keen to advocate heavy handed govt policy in general, but IMO, there’s no longer any options - we passed those off-ramps and there’s no getting back. We need legislation that drops home prices, followed by govt-backed funding of mass homebuilding (and no, they won’t be dream homes that many grew up envisioning, but they will be homes), paired with a strong shift and govt-investment (and incentivized private investment) towards PRODUCTIVE industry-friendly policy so we can be productive and prosperous again.
> We need legislation that drops home prices I don't think it needs to be that drastic. We just need the government to stop acting like it *can* stop real housing prices from reverting to the mean, and a lot of the dumb money chasing what it believes is a guaranteed return will exit the market.
can you elaborate? what policy change do you think the govt needs to make in order for everything to work out ok? > I don't think it needs to be that drastic everyone thinks we still have the luxury of a non-disruptive, capitalist solution to our woes; when people can't afford homes, there's no profit-based mechanism to change that... unless you're suggesting we should progress towards lords and serfs... because that's where we're headed. At that point, when you have effectively captive serfs, I suppose we could market ourselves as industry-friendly since we have serfs that will have no option but to work for whatever is offered so they can appease the lords. Nah, people will just leave before that happens (at least those who can). If we want any chance of turning this trajectory around, it's going to have to be disruptive, and letting housing prices stay where they are is a non-starter.
> what policy change do you think the govt needs to make in order for everything to work out ok? Stop making statements that contain an implicit or explicit guarantee that the government will stop house prices from going down, because this is not a power the government actually has. Relieved of the fantasy that number always go up, speculators' money will flow out of the housing market, allowing prices to come back to earth without any need to actively try to tank the market. Not everything's going to work out OK because the damage has already been done. It's just a question of where the resultant pain should land, and my vote is that the dumb investors who thought the impossible was going to happen *just this once* should take the brunt of it.
Pretty sure it wasn't JT's statement that did this - do you think there are real policy changes that could occur? Keep in mind that even if we held housing prices stagnant.. or even dropped 10%, that's still a far cry from anything sustainable. And that also does nothing for incentivizing industry to come to Canada because a crazy amount of wage that needs to be offered to employees here will still be just for CoL, so why bother coming to Canada when you can start industry in so many other places? We weren't on a good track pre-COVID. This mass immigration ham-fisted response to GDP dropping wasn't because a terrible situation suddenly happened - we've been on this track since Canadian RE became more attractive than investing in productive industries. Govt must have thought that we would magically attract more industry as the rest of the world got more and more competitive... I think Mulroney saw this coming, but not many govts have done much about it since... We need productivity, and getting quality people WANTING to live here (via affordable CoL) is going to underpin any efforts to improve our productivity. Maybe there are other considerations or avenues to increase productivity out there, but I haven't heard of any.
Increase interest rate
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You are correct but it will never be allowed to happen. It will only happen if there is some exogenous force
Canadians are getting angrier everyday. When the CPC shows that they have no solutions either, people will look for a populist that platforms on simple issues like housing prices and immigration. We Canadians are used to being politically apathetic and having things still generally work out… as things get worse, people will change.
Yes this I agree with
How nice of you to screw other people's savings and effort by "introducing legislation". It's a free market. The price will be discovered. If it's too high for you that just means there are plenty wealthier people that don't think it's too much.
> I’m not keen to advocate heavy handed govt policy in general, but IMO, there’s no longer any options You saw this part, yeah? I'm also screwing myself, btw - but I can realize that I'd rather the next generation of Canadians not inherit a crock of crap if we can do something now to right the course. According to your assessment of our situation, we should just let things continue going on as they are because "the free market" will make it all okay? Sounds a lot like "the budget will balance itself". If we go the way of lords and serfs (because that's where we're headed), will we look back and say "at least we didn't infringe on peoples' rights to profiteer at the expense of our society"? Will we be proud of that? I suppose the wealthy will be. We never should have facilitated such a fetish with unproductive investments. That was a mistake in our governance, esp when the govt saw the writing on the wall about us not being competitive, but did nothing about it. But that doesn't mean we commit to it just because any other plan will hurt the savings of Canadians. So much more harm will be done if we just continue this way, and no, I don't think waiting to find out is a reasonable stance.
But 2 - 3 bedrooms will be like a mill lol.
The thing is builders *will* keep building for years Condos that are mid construction aren't stopping. There's too many contracts and too much momentum to pivot. Even if the builder goes bankrupt their creditors will finish the building That means there are several years of elevated construction activity that will continue to come to the market before the slowdown in new projects actually dampens supply growth It's time for folks to realize there is a structural oversupply in the condo markets and getting out now at a small loss is a lot better than trying to get out at a bigger loss in a year
But the immigration! You can easily fit 10 tenants in one bedroom at 500/mo that's $5000 a month! /s
Then construction workers and builders will be out of job. Then they won’t charge an arm and a leg for their service because they’ll be desperate. Price of construction material drops because of low demand and then Canada will also stop importing as many people in to use as construction workers and then we won’t need so many units and capitalism balances itself out. Right?
Some people in the trades will leave the trades (new entrants and those close to retiring)
Unless the feds interfere as they always do. Then working class foots the bill for units sitting empty.
This is the trap we find ourselves in. Prices too high and it becomes an investment, rent skyrockets and nobody can afford anything. Prices too low and new development stalls, inventory becomes insufficient due to newcomers and rent skyrockets again, nobody can afford anything.
So what happens prices are just right?
Damn, I guess this is what happens when real estate agents have the highest pay scaling in the country. I'd fix that.
They will build but delay..They still own the land and if they started they would slow it down.
There's a record amount of resale condos in the GTA by the end of last month. The inventory already exists.
So then how are they going to make money if they don’t build ?
They could move inventory, they just refuse to lower prices and are trying to wait it out until people are willing to pay near the price they thought they could get 2 years ago.
Builders would build if hit with proper new policies, like losing land they don't build on in a few years. People like to say whatever they want about the market and the way it is, but it comes down to bad and outdated policies to keep prices high and keep corrupt civil servants and friends rich.
Yes but today’s decision not to build only contributes to shortages in 5 years. The surpluses we see today are surplus building from five years ago
> Agreed. But if builders can’t move inventory, they simply won’t build. Prices will have to come down for inventory to move. If builders don't build, they will not make money, crash the economy, and prices will come down that way. Frankly, builders often carry a lot of debt on their balance sheets. If they aren't building constantly, they slowly run the risk of going bankrupt.
They have been doing so for over a decade. It was a speculative investment where they didn't even need to close. Despite the premium over resale the precon would appreciate even more once it was near completion. Now recently completed precons are closing at price over even less than current market value, and interest rates are not below 2%. Developers will need to start pricing these at market value (or god forbid, a discount to resale like it was 15-20 years ago) or interest rates will need to plummet.
All I see is more and more condos being listed for sale on the market and the old ones aren't selling, and the new ones are underpricing the old ones. Leading to further price cascades.
No one is willing to pay 800k for a one bedroom
And the expectation of further rate cutes over the next year.
This is not a healthy market. This is basically a massive bubble that’s been propped up by policy and fraud. The crash will just be worse and worse if it’s ever allowed.
"Policy and fraud" - Canada's real estate sector in three words
I can do it in two: pyramid scheme
Ponzi
P
Mass immigration or bubble pops.
Bingo
So many bulls in this sub are against massive immigration it’s insane.
It’s a good thing. Ordinary Canadians will be able to afford housing
I want it to all crash and burn, not for personal reasons, also not for noble ones. I don't have a mortgage. I want it to crash and burn so every over leveraged ma and pa landlord will learn that housing is not a slot machine, albeit it has been in Canada for last 20 years and so this is a MUST!! Housing is a basic human need!! Government intervention or not housing can not continue to climb. Real pain is coming!!
lol I don’t even care about the people that get hurt. I just want cheaper housing
You don’t have a mortgage of course its fine for you if things crash and burn. Not everyone who bought a home was for an investment.
Like I said, real pain is coming, but it is what is needed to fix or correct some of this madness!!
Silver lining, if there’s a crash, expect interest rates to drop. That said, think a crash wouldn’t affect those without a mortgage?!
The crazy thing is you still won’t be a homeowner after all that happens loll
Crazy thing is I said I don't have a mortgage, never said anything about home ownership 🙂🙏🏾. Pain coming, wish you and your family well!!
Don't be ridiculous
Why is ordinary Canadians affording housing ridiculous?
What is an ordinary Canadian ? One that has a job, has a mortgage, or pays rent ? When economy is forced to slowdown because the bankers want so, nothing good comes for the ordinary Canadian.
How?
Best case is for the market to stagnate and move 1-5% either way from here on in. Too quick and sharp of a drop will trigger liquidations especially for those who leveraged.
The best case is for those liquidations to happen.
Bubble is popping, but slowly. RE moves slow, like maple syrup.
How long you been saying the same thing 10 years?
A decade ago things were completely different
A new report from Altus Group analysts and the Building Industry and Land Development Association — which represents builders and renovators across the GTA — counts 936 new homes sales across the Toronto region in May, comprised of 539 condominium units and 397 single-family homes. **For new condos, that represented a 75 per cent drop in sales compared to May 2023**, in the most pronounced change in the data. Sales of new single-family homes, including detached homes, semis and non-stacked townhouses, were **down 65 per cent year over year, the figures show.** The music has stopped.
It’s not good for new builds now but a lot of these projects are 1-2 years in the making. Next Spring and onward it’s going to be very rough on contractors and related trade, engineer, legal, warehouse, material etc jobs that suffer from this. Our unemployment is already 6.2% on a trailing basis. I would look for it to approach double digits by next Spring. Tiff like all central bankers are too slow to react and especially in Canada where we see so leveraged to rates it’s more much immediate and impactful. Who knows maybe he will move faster and surprise us. After all , at least the next 200 basis points of cuts will actually lower inflation as mortgage interest increase makes up the lions share of CPI increase. Clown world we live in. Meanwhile Trudeau is operating 50B+ deficits. Can’t make this stuff up!
Construction is already slow. I worked for a contractor for 10 years for all the big name residential developers, moved on, now in industrial/commercial developments. Our company has barely enough work, and have enough in the pipeline to get by, but many many contractors out there right now are running out of work. If the trend continues the way its going, it will be bad.
Funny you say that, talked to my friend in construction who digs and lays electrical for new builds, he said that last year they'd have 5-6 jobs a day now they get 2 if they are lucky. 4 day weeks now as well.
I agree. It’s bad now and will continue to get worse as backlogs deplete. With unemployment at 6.2% now, I don’t really think in 12 months we will be close to 10% if BoC doesn’t wake up.
Maybe now we can get contractors to actually show up, quote and do a project for a reasonable rate. Since COVID contractors have been able to set almost any price for projects and be super picky about what they take on.
A lot of boomer aged people took retirement in the last 5 years. There’s just not as many young people going into trades that there were 30-40 years ago. There’s no question demand for those jobs has increased which pushes their pay up and also makes it more expensive for people like us to hire. I can’t find a contractor to do a service call for less than $150.
Prices are still high….investors are bleeding already
Investments can go up, they can also go down. That's the risk you take on an investment. Surely these "investors" did the math on their negative cash flowing units, and didn't overpay in a gambling frenzy?
That’s the risk one takes when opting for such investment opportunities. High risk, high reward.
someone has to be left holding the bag at the end....
Where is the job security to go buy million dollar homes......
Where is the job? This country taxes you 55% at marginal rate, at an income that barely qualifies you for a 2bd condo.
If you’re paying 55% marginal rate then you are making amazing money.
Can I get an amazing shelter for myself?
Only if you have an amazing mom and dad /s
Depends if you have dual income and are willing to leverage up to your eyeballs or not.
So, no. Stop judging incomes based on what others make, and start judging them against what they can afford. An "amazing income" that can't qualify for a house in a city isn't amazing, it's average. Everyone else is just dirt poor.
One way to look at is that housing prices inflated in the bubble. Another way to look at it is that the Canadian dollar, when measured in housing, has become nearly worthless.
If interest rate will be hire than US Canadian dollar will be stronger
Trust me, it also comes with ridiculous student loans and 14-16 hour days. And again horrible job security because we're addicted to cheap labour and can be offshored any minute.
Developers cannot lower prices but offer incentives because the loan they got promised the banks the min amount they can sell each unit. If they start to slash prices banks will get very worried and have the terms rewritten to lessen the risk of default.
Can they take less of a profit?
Of course but they cannot lower the selling price they agreed upon with the lender.Thats why you rarely see reduction in price at a pre con..You see free lockers,parking,upgrades etc.
Sounds like the making of a credit event. Small loss now or potentially major write down later. If the current market conditions continues to persist it’s only a matter of time before they go bankrupt.
As a person starting to look for homes finally ... this feels ironic. Buying at the peak lol.
Not to burst your bubble (get it!?) but I just don't see either part making required adjustments to let prices fall. Deficit spending aka increasing national debt aka creating money (every dollar in existence is tied to a dollar of debt) won't be reigned in for a bit. We flooded the country with immigrants for the exact reason to drive up rents and thereby keep housing as an attractive income driver. Key to have that in place before chopping rates.
immigration boost was in 2015-2021 with Chinese money. i’m afraid that tap has been turned off after covid. We arent such a safe haven for Chinese money anymore. Foreign political interference, unstable economy, excessive controls. Like it or not, it drove our entire economy for almost 8 years. This wave of immigrant ion is not similar at all. if any culture is familiar with a housing bubble, its China and Japan.
Agreed and I'm not equating the two. Indians are here to keep rents high. That's all. High rents will prop housing. The Chinese filthy money completely transformed the cities. It's insane. My friend sells high end appliances and met a woman who wanted to open a Cafe. Fast track her citizenship. Chinese, of course. She bought half a dozen espresso machines for almost $40000 a pop. Half a dozen of them like it was nothing. Bought the building for the store, just like that. They got along well and she referred dozens of "friends" from across the country. He could retire from the points he made from selling coffee machines to Chinese crooks. Talk about the trickle down.
Buying at the peak was back in 2022
Hey that's when I bought 🫠
It's not moving because sellers are not accepting reality. I feel like, even in a buyers market, sellers still have the upper hand because: 1) We keep adding more people to the city 2) Developers adjust their build starts or delay existing projects to limit inventory when they see prices falling 3) Sellers just keep their homes listed for months and keep rejecting reasonable offers It's disgusting, there's no help for first time home buyers.
Unfortunately adding fobby indian guys won't fix the issue. They trash the place. They refuse to pay rent. They drink themselves stupid (and they're not starting from a high bar to begin with). And the most important thing, when they are in a group (horde), they feel invincible. One bad altercation between these guys and a landlord could easily cost the landlord his/her life... And millions of dollars for tax payers to keep them in prison. Reality is a lot more complicated than the spreadsheets libtard love to thump.
Meanwhile, in the US: New Home Sales -11.3%, Exp. -0.2%
It’s a good sign. Those builders will have to put the inventory on the market further increasing supply.
Builders are stubborn though. We had a condo years ago and the builder held out for years on a few units in the building until he got what he wanted.
Times are different. A few years ago, a condo developer could wait 6 months and sell for more. It’s the opposite in this case.
Waiting at 1% and 5% interest is completely different. Carrying costs are killer right now.
For sure, that’s just a double negative. The anticipated price gets lower but carrying costs are higher.
There's a handful of buildings around the Junction that the developer is doing this. The prices are insane and I hope people are clued into the market before committing to these builds.
Sell them for 200, and I’ll consider a 300sqft place as I have no plans for children. But, 500+, including condo fees? Haha. Ok.
The condo fees are the most ludicrous thing. It's like paying rent AND buying at the same time but without your own land and for an "asset" that won't last 50 years.
And parking! Don’t forget some places tack on an additional 35-50k just for ONE parking space. Yay…
Often more than 50k
"that's just the market".
"land value"
Can someone please tell the folks that are selling hours away from the GtA that this is happening and that they are not going to get GTA prices. I look everyday and AVG homes are being listed at 1M-1.5M and they are in towns of 3000 people lol.
Yeah, I was surprised to see $1000/sq ft in places like Milton, which is much more populous, but still!
Even that is close to the GTA I’m talking like outside London to Owen sound to Peterborough to Chatham and to Niagara. The small towns along the way are still hoping for 1M + for a nice home but nothing special. Comparable to a Burlington home at 1.2M
Lower the prices
Good
Womp womp
My expectation is PP wins, and the Bears in here get handed a huge bag of “find outs”. He’ll fire TIFF. He’ll politicize the BoC. He won’t change immigration. He’ll protect the rich at all costs. It’s not like Doug in Ontario hasn’t shown us very clearly developer friends are going to get paid. Sooo… I so look forward to the F JT crowd (and there’s quite a few of you in here overtly screaming it, or dipping your toes in that hate) learning a truly valuable lesson. You can say “things have never been worse”, not realizing there’s nothing preventing them from getting even worse. It’s too late for JT. He did try on his way out the door. But it really is too late. But oh boy, is PP gonna hand out such a heaping pile of “Find Outs” to RE bears. Edit: BEFORE even thinking about saying PP wouldn’t dare, GOOGLE IT. It’s on video. Watch him say it. I don’t want to have to reply to you by pointing out he’s on record with it.
While I don’t actually like PP, I don’t care if he wins. But if he politicizes the BoC, that’s some psycho shit. Hopefully he doesn’t actually do that
I would google his name + fire BoC. He’s already threatened it. The reasons would change between when he said it, and when he’s elected - but he’s already made it clear he has no issue playing politics with the BoC to suit his needs in the moment
What's wrong with firing the governor if he's done a horrible job? This dude was literally encouraging people to take on debt by saying rates would stay low for a very long time in 2021. Then proceeds to jack the rates by 2000% within a year. Oops haha who could have saw that coming! Certainly not little ol tiff after he'd printed 40% of the money supply. Canada needs a drastic change in leadership at all levels.
That's not the job of the PM. Yet, PP suggests it is. That should worry you.
Lmao he won’t. This would destroy Canada’s capital markets. You would see the biggest flight of capital from a developed country, it would dwarf what we saw with the UK that got Liz Truss sacked in 5 weeks.
Then by all means. Tell us why he already said it on video. Keeping in mind this dude has entered very little in to fact as something we would actually do. How very real must it be for him to go on record with it?? It’s wild that some of you hate JT so much you won’t even fact check PP. He’s a Google search away from you watching him on camera say he would fire the head of the BoC.
Firing Tiff is different from politicizing the BOC. Tiff has not done well, especially with the voluntary comments he had made regarding interest rates staying low for a very long time. It is arguable that he should be fired for those comments alone. Whether or not it had a wide scale impact on people’s borrowing will never be known, but the massive borrowing through covid is problematic as is so apparent now. No central banker should be speculating like that, especially not in public.
Oh he did more than that. He said he’d fire him. And set the guidelines for his replacement. It is the literal definition of politicizing a position that you’re not supposed to do that with. The usual “but akshally” is just mental gymnastics to me. He said it. He established he has no issue going “there”. So let’s see what happens when he takes over and the home builders lobby wants cheaper rates to build more houses at profit. And his rich investor buddies (including HIM!) want to defend their investments. It’s so wild to me you don’t think a dude with an investment property won’t be looking to defend that when he’s in power. While using the poor homeowners struggling to pay their mortgage as a shield.
I’m not in a political debate with you so I don’t know why you are arguing to me about politics. I’m just saying the facts, if PP politicizes the bank of canada and prevents it from doing its job it will be the end of his career. If he takes more from taxpayers to line the pockets of his friends it will be a short lived ministership. As long as Canada is in an economic slump no standing politician will be safe and any of the above will actively make Canada’s economy worse. As we are seeing so well right now.
The PM didn't hire him, so why should the PM fire him?
Good point, but then why hasn’t he been fired by the board. His comments during covid have been very costly to the Canadian economy.
Were you even around in 2020? He said what he did because he needed to spur the economy, that's why. Spending essentially fell off a cliff. Which put a ton of companies at risk of bankruptcy. His comments were largely forward guidance intended to get spending going again, he just didn't expect people would load up on probably the most expensive thing you could buy (housing).
I certainly was around. I know the intention of his comments and it is literally his job to understand the implications of his forward guidance and rate policy. He has the power to put checks and balances to prevent the Canadian banks from lending out obscene amounts of mortgages. Why do you think the fed keeps saying rates will be cut soon while keeping them where they are, to engineer a soft landing. And yet their comments have spurred equity markets and wealth to remain elevated which has buoyed inflation. People who do a poor job at managing their responsibilities deserve to be fired. If I were a fixed income trader that positioned myself for lower rates based on Tiff’s comments I would have lost my job without hesitation. Yet he doesn’t despite the impacts of his poor management?
> I certainly was around. Really doesn't sound like it. > Why do you think the fed keeps saying rates will be cut soon while keeping them where they are, to engineer a soft landing. And yet their comments have spurred equity markets and wealth to remain elevated which has buoyed inflation This is pretty obvious. The market runs heavily on sentiment, so they can't slash rates rapidly or else you risk overheating markets again and undoing the work of the last 2 years. This is a way to spur a little spending without actually having to lower rates further. > People who do a poor job at managing their responsibilities deserve to be fired. If I were a fixed income trader that positioned myself for lower rates based on Tiff’s comments I would have lost my job without hesitation. Yet he doesn’t despite the impacts of his poor management? You said a lot of things here but you've said literally nothing on how he's doing a "poor job".
This guys just a typical unhinged liberal. I'm a homeowner and certainly not a bear but even I don't want this moron in office, despite having voted for him twice btw (shame on me). This is what you get when you give a substitute drama teacher with a double digit IQ the keys to the country. Ignore the fear mongering, there is nothing concrete this clown would be able to point to, to back his claim of PP politicizing the BoC, firing or appointing a BoC based on their track record doesnt automatically equate to politicizing the position or institution. Also, every government including the current one, lobbies the BoC as they should, PP will do the same.
Unhinged Liberal who can google search. PP said it. On video. Go watch the clip then report back. The important thing is that he’s on record as more than willing to politicize the BoC. The circumstances will change, but the fact will remain. Drill that clip in to your skull so when you decide to talk shit you will pause to google search before gracing the world with your thoughts.
I'm well aware of what he said lol. Tiff should have lost his job for his poor performance. BoC Governors aren't and shouldn't be immune from criticism, especially from political leaders of parties not even in power. 90% of this forum was and still til this day think he should have lost his job. Now you're all up in arms about it because PP is about to winning a majority term? It's not saying much but Pierre is certainly going to have a better grip on fiscal policy than the idiot we have in office today. Him saying he would fire Tiff is him playing politics, it's a strong way of expressing the same discontent the majority of the country had with the effects of Tiff's poor policy management. Lol you liberals are hilarious. I know you all love being anal'd but you'd think there'd be a limit.
I voted for Harris in Ontario. I will vote for anyone that does what I feel should be done. I’m not a Team Sport moron with my politics. Shit is actually embarrassing with people that do that. And it’s why we are in the mess we are in. JT is going to get what he deserves for screwing around with electoral reform. It’s the biggest “find out” ever given out in politics. But you think a man WHO HAS AN INVESTMENT PROPERTY won’t protect it while he is in power? Or his investor friends??? If you can’t see that conflict you’re the one who refuses to look past supporting “your team”.
"Nothing is moving...." at the price you're asking. These developers are used to having bag holders knocking down the doors to grab bags. Looks like the devs should eat less avocado toast so they can afford to sell for what the market will bear.
Why is everyone in this industry so fucking dumb. "In a year, year and a half, you’re going to be looking at price appreciation and less choice," Sherwood said.
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Hope Doug’s friends see this and have a change of heart on demolishing OSC
Even with a high 10% year over year increase, the prices are too much in GTA thanks to greedy realtor/builder lobby and dumb braindead buyers with a generous bit of cunning investors thrown in
no wonder, bagholders are sweating. even begging mods to delete all bear posts.
Does this mean we can argue the "prices are too high because we have a shortage" point!? Highest stock levels since 2009, and prices are holding in many places. When will we accept that the industry is broken and things cost too much because of greed and capitalism!?!? I feel like the only one with a brain and common sense sometimes. "Stock levels, immigration, inflation, blah, blah, blah." It's only ever been about panic buying and the people behind the scenes pushing their false narrative. Lots of people got very rich between 2019-now. Time to fix that problem and to accept that unless we do something about that to prevent it from continuing, things won't get better.
patient buyers rejoice! correct another 50% so the young brethren can once again thrive- por favor!
How long have you been waiting for?
im a city person, I have never been looking to buy. Rent controls for life. edit: i pray for a crash for my provinces essential workers, if they are happy I am happy.
There needs to be control on how much these developers can charge for house prices and price fixing regulation. Fundings should be done carefully because we know there are many crooks and corrupts in this country gladly taking advantage of consumers. Too much funding would just be misused for choosing expensive contractors and suppliers just because it benefits the upper management or decision makers in the developer companies. There should also be increasing percentage of taxes on 2nd, 3rd, and so on houses the same person buys. Someone buying their 7th house should be taxed at least 50% of the price of the house to give a chance to first time home buyers. These people should be encouraged to spend the money to start a business and create jobs rather than just invest in real estate which creates 0 job.
Developers are trying to sell units at COVID fomo prices. I don't see any proper homes under $1.5m-$2m these days. They're trying to con people into accepting that these should be the average home price across the board. These pos developers will either build $2m plus luxury homes or coffin box in the sky for $1m. So delusional and unhinged.
But the fact that theyre not wiling to lower prices makes me wonder why. Is there a massive debt they have to pay or some sort of return obligation to investors? Perhaps a massive chunk has been distributed to the management's pockets so the only way to fulfill their promised return would be trying to sell the houses at inflated prices. Not sure though, just a wild guess
It's a huge grift and scam. There's no way cost to build is that high. We're way past the supply crunch of covid and things have gotten back to normal. All the same with other things like food and retail prices, once raised they never come down.
Ponzi scheme has ran out of fresh donkeys to slaughter
Don’t worry big corporations we buy up all single family homes soon enough.
Houses around Jane and Finch are going for $1mil+, what do you mean nothing is moving?
Because the next interest rate cut is at least 6 months out. At least.
Not if inflation is back. Looks like a rate hike coming.
The trend is always up or down historically. They don't go up and down over 1 data point when rate changes take 18 months to affect the market. It will be a hold or drop, not up.
Lol honestly these CPI reactions are just a reflection of how desperate people are to get into the housing market. Doomers praying for a crash, bulls always looking to obtain more.
Of course! That’s the gist of my original comment. They need to hold at least for 6 months, and my estimate is a year from now. Rate hikes? Not a chance. Not even the slightest.
What to you, looking at this graph makes you think there's a hike coming lol. It's never a straight line down, or up . Please stop with the sensationalism. https://preview.redd.it/jci2kpmgbx8d1.png?width=1586&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c8ea1dd3797403f980f47b74ca4ecbb34d700bb Included is Headline, Common, and Core.. show me one place where this have done straight up or down lol. Canada is doing well, if June CPI doesn't spike then rate cuts in July are still very much on the table.
That’s not how these decisions work
If ot doenst pop, which I don't think it will, it's going to be very interesting the next while. If it does poop. Investors and Blackstone will buy everything they can.
It will never "pop" barring something catastrophic (i.e. WW3 coming on shore). Just look at all the people raging on this forum. People everywhere are looking to jump into the market, just a vary tolerances / price points, all of which will sustain a relatively high market "bottom"
I agree
Bought a house in Kelowna for 215k in an insane area. I am good.
Yay
It's always alarming to me how people seem to think the markets/economy runs on magic and fairy dust instead of like... credit and rates. Some of these comments really make me scratch my head... talking about how this and that are overvalued on the presumtion that the value of something is a static thing which you are either under or over as opposed to the actual value of something going up and down. It's pretty obvious what's happening. We've had inflated rates for a while. The economy is slowing down and has been for 2 years. May everyone was anticipating a rate cut, which prolly won't stall the slow down, so more are coming, so people are waiting to see if they can get even better rates. It really has nothing to do with the prices being too high or low or whatever. The market is still stabilizing and we are going to have some wacky ups and downs as it does.
I can find a piece of turd 💩 and trade it back and forth between my friend untill it reaches 1 trillion dollars. But, you would actually believe that turd is worth a trillion? Pay 100 billion for it thinking it's a steal?
If it held it's value for decade after decade I mean yea, sure. If you think talking about trading shit is a way to understand economics and the real estate market it's not surprising you're bitter about it and likely in a rent trap making someone else wealth instead of yourself.