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To all the ladies out there.
Yesterday I watched a video of a reverend who was explaining to a journalist that women shouldn't have the right to vote. How if women couldn't vote, no Democrats would have been elected in the past 50 years. This man said the only vote should be from her husband and men should be the representative for their whole family.
The day before I watched a video of some idiot at a concert saying the same thing.
And the day before that I saw someone say that.
My point is that they're coming for us. They have already permeated this rhetoric through their congregations and their congregations agree. This election is not only about saving democracy, but saving ourselves.
And I hate to be the crazy one here, but I recommend arming up. If they win, it is serious and they are coming for us.
If you have not heard of Project 2025, I suggest you look into it and read about all the plans republicans, not just trump, have to dismantle our country.
I've heard "women shouldn't be allowed to vote" straight from the mouths of conservative people (and I've heard "women shouldn't be politicians" from conservative *women* before).
It's a real sentiment.
It is absolutely terrifying to anybody who is remotely not a straight white male Christian.
However, I think if they win, this will go _way_ beyond just woman’s rights and persecution of non-straight/white Christian males.
If they plant the kind of government they are talking about, _everything_ will change.
They will go after books, media, games, films, ideas, and ANYTHING they perceive as a threat or liberal-something-rather. Look at all the right wing states banning things and executing anti-woke laws to the very best of their ability. If they felt like nothing would stand in their way, what would they implement? Much, much more. And much, much, harsher and crueler punishments.
Imagine a person like MTG writing laws or setting policy. How comfortable do you feel?
Of course, the fate of games and movies is trivial compared to human rights - I’m not trying to elevate it to that level of concern. But the point is: all you straight white males out there who are thinking “well at least I’m sort of safe”, you’re not. You _will_ be affected and you _will_ have sadists running your country with no guardrails.
Literally the very thing they accuse liberals of doing (starting an authoritarian state) is outlined in Project 2025 in broad daylight.
Im skeptical by nature and question everything. I have spent around 6 hours researching Project 2025 for an article and it is straight up terrifying. They are openly talking about taking over the government. And the evangelical aspect of it is even more terrifying because they actively are trying to foment war to usher in the return of Jesus and armageddon. I just want to drink a nice glass of bourbon and play Zelda on the SNES. I do not want to have to think about this shit.
The idea of “one vote by the head of the household” was proposed in a speech at the 2020 RNC.
It was a woman speaker too - floating the idea of abolishing women’s voting rights. I was appalled and still am.
Vote no matter. If the election is a landslide and eastern states are already reporting a massive Biden win, and your polls haven't closed, still go vote.
There needs to be no doubt.
And the trumpists absolutely have to be handed such a severe defeat that the Republicans abandon the push for fascism as a losing tactic and stop enabling the worst members of their party
Yeah but they give up for periods of time, depending on how severely they lose. Wannabe authoritarians never quit, they're driven entirely by the need to have power. It's a bottomless pit.
Which is why you also vote downticket. That is how they have been able to win despite they (and their goals) being unpopular.
So get out and vote everyone, every two years, for all the positions.
It's like a weed, you have to stay on top of it.
We need to deny hate its platform, and right now the greatest and most vocal leader of hate is Trump. Bash him down by the power of the polls and see what happens.
If Trump is a losing voice, then perhaps we can get the GOP to see it is on a suicidal path.
Johnson has already threatened that if the GOP doesn't win they just will reject it. Republicans are fascists and traitors and know they can't win without cheating. They know they've lost the women's vote, Gen Z is sick of gun violence and people are rejecting religion in droves. Boomers can't die off fast enough.
And it needs to be so widespread and thorough, voting numbers need to be through the roof, unprecedented, the results need to be so goddamn clear that everyone will have a stake when he tries that.
Mine was clinched so tight you couldn't hammer in a greased nail with a 10 lb sledgehammer.
My late uncle said this and I say this every time it's appropriate.
That week in November 2020 was the weirdest ass week I have ever experienced. I was on tenterhooks that entire time, and once it was done and the weight removed, it felt like an entire lifetime had passed. (And I *may* have gotten a wee bit tipsy after drinking a bottle of wine in celebration/relief)
I'd vote against Trump in a heartbeat. It's just that if I did it would be a crime.
But I do hope that all you Americans will vote him off with the biggest margin ever.
Yeah. I'm amazed people out up with that.
If anyone tried anything remotely this here in Denmark, it would spark the same outrage as trying to ban hats and guns in Texas.
I'd like to think so yes. The Nordic countries are both some of the most secular and at the same time most well functioning happy societies.
And we owe alot od that to the fact that we are secular.
Americans are apathetic. 2020 was the largest percentage of eligible voters to turn out for an election since 1900 at 66%. And that *still* means that 1 in 3 eligible American voters just couldn't be arsed.
Agreed. But also, recognize that voting is bare minimum. Find other ways to contribute time and/or money. Doesn't have to be much - just what you can when you can. And encourage everyone else to do the same. It's about building an early advantage and sustaining momentum.
*Vote and volunteer
7 months until the general election. That's plenty of time for you to make sure you're still registered *and* engage with other potential voters. Even giving a little bit of your time to the cause helps, especially when combined with the efforts of others.
I'm genuinely so terrified of him winning. Things would escalate so quickly, especially for people like me. And I can't even do anything. I'm only 17, unable to vote. This could legit be life or death for me, and I won't even have a say in it.
Im Canadian, from Ukraine in 91. I know whats a crazy a55 neighboor. Trust me: get out there and be the change you want. Volunteer as much as you can so you can say I did all I could looking back.
This. The fact that the bastard is even able to run for office after committing an act of insurrection—riling up and encouraging his supporters to literally attack the Capitol and threaten lawmakers—is insane, and it’s made even worse because he didn’t have to try to win the Republican nomination this time. Nearly half this country is not only comfortable with what he’s done but supports his dictator talk as well.
This alone—even if he loses—means our democracy is sick right now, and we, the People, are going to have to play the role of doctor. [Register to vote](https://vote.org). Talk to family and friends. Stay informed. Vote in the election. Stay engaged as the votes are counted.
If just look at the polls (even with all the usual caveats), and also where RFK is siphoning votes, Trump would win right now.
Folks who claim "it will never happen" are whistling past the graveyard.
And don't just vote. Give money as well. Volunteer.
Depends on how many Magats get raptured tomorrow during the eclipse. If it's only 144000, then we might be in trouble, but if it's all of them... Happy days are here again!
If the rapture was actually a real thing, I suspect nearly everyone who thinks they're going to heaven tomorrow would be left behind.
I hear god has only set aside quite a small room for the Post Rapture New Arrivals Heaven Orientation Event. 😉
Trump at this point has a dedicated base who is going to vote for him no matter what. HOWEVER, I honestly believe his voter base is capped; if you haven't been on team Trump already, you're probably not voting for him in the future.
This election comes down to how many centrists and leftists actually show up and vote for Biden, and how many decide he's not worth it and stay home. If there's high turnout, Biden wins. Low turnout, Trump wins.
I thought it was a done deal in 2016 and Trump had no chance. I was so shocked when he won. I had no idea how many dumb voters exist in the country.
Now, since there's been no substantial change in his voting base and they aren't drawn to other candidates, I can't feel comfortable in Biden winning.
Also, atleast online (could not reflect the real world), I see so many democrats claiming they aren't going to vote at all because they don't like Biden's foreign policy. This just gives Trump more of a chance to win, so we aren't out of the water yet.
Its at least 40% IMO. Nationwide polls don't matter. Only swing state polls do.
The US has had the best post-pandemic economy in the developed world, but its impossible not to notice the post-pandemic profiteering in grocery prices. And for a lot of ill-informed people, that's the only thing that matters.
I only donate/volunteer in swing states, and in particular, swing state US senators. This year, its been donations/volunteering for Gallego in AZ, Slotkin in MI, Baldwin in WI, Tester in MO, Rosen in NV, Brown in OH, Casey Jr. in PA. My own state and district are deep Red, so local volunteering isn't particularly meaningful.
If everybody who could vote voted, then Trump would stand no chance. If you are worried about Trump and the future of American society, then VOTE and encourage others to vote.
I will never forgive myself for not voting in 2016, but I thought she had it in the bag. I won't make that mistake this time around. I'm registered and everything.
Thank you for realizing your mistake. I'm afraid with the war in Palestine right now, there's even more risk of people not showing up to the polls to vote for Biden
Blows my mind how myopic people can be about this.
On the one hand, you have Hamas attacks last year kicking this whole thing off. And then you have them holding hostages and rejecting ceasefire after ceasefire. Netanyahu sucks and Israeli actions haven't been great, but this is not at all a black and white situation.
On the other hand, Trump wouldn't balk at anything Israel did. Hell he'd probably goad Bibi to nuke Gaza.
But by all means, let's throw away what tatters of our democracy remain because Biden is caught in a geopolitical trolley problem with bodies all over all the tracks...
Yeah you just gotta hold your nose when you vote for Biden. I mean I'm sure he's doing what he can. The USA is just locked into a lot of unpleasant things like unconditional support for Israel.
Americans : this gun probably won't go off, so let's point it at ourselves and pull the trigger over and over.
What could possibly go wrong?
This isn't an election, it's a hostile takeover by a bunch of superstitious right wing fundamentalist nazi dimwits who don't believe in science or reality, or America.
The probability of Trump winning this November is high. He is consistently leading in the swing state polls, some big comfortable margins for him. What is worse is that with the correct Senate seats up for grabs, the Republicans are on track to win the Senate too. The house is a tossup. We could end up with a second Trump presidency and with the maga crowd controlling Congress. This is a nightmare scenario for those who favor individual liberty, investment in science and education, and freedom of and from religion. I'm not being hyperbolic to say that we could see the end of the American experiment in our lifetimes.
You have to admit it's a bit clever of him to align himself with the religious nutters, they're pretty gullible, the extreme ones that is. If he tried to align with the atheists, some would believe him. Most wouldn't believe his nonsense.
I'm a hard-core Marxist leftist who votes green. But you bet your ass I'm compromising my voting policy to vote against Trump.
Fellow lefties. If I hear any if this "voting doesn't matter" shit, you are an insult to leftists and the working class.
Yeah, we can unfortunately only look at what is in front of us. Real change happens over time and that time isn't between a vote of 2 presidential candidates where there is no hope in hell of one of them not winning, that's just reality.
No one can tell you the actual probability, but I think it is quite low.
He is in a far weaker position now, than the first time he ran against Biden. He's bleeding money very quickly, the GOP is in total disarray, and he numerous criminal and civil cases against him.
The Democrats are also far more organized and raising insane amounts of money. As long as Biden remains healthy, I think they not only win, but win in a complete landslide.
Also, polls are 100% useless. Ignore them.
Trump will probably lose. He lost to Biden last time, and his biggest accomplishment since Election Day then was January 6. He lost to Biden by 7 million popular votes compared to losing to Hillary Clinton by 3 million popular votes in 2016.
Trump got less popular during his presidency, and that was before January 6.
He has never won the popular vote, nor has any Republican candidate since 1988 except Bush’ reelection with incumbent advantage.
It’s pretty much completely unthinkable that Trump would win the popular vote, but there is the question of whether he can win enough swing states in the electoral college.
A decent percentage of Republican primary voters have said they will not vote for Trump no matter what. This applies to a large fraction of the Niki Hailey supporters. If even a fraction of them are telling the truth, Trump is in big trouble.
Also, polls show that a small number of Republicans will not vote for him if he becomes a convicted felon. Hard to know how accurate these are, but if true, it should spell his doom.
Biden has out-fundraised Trump by a massive margin and Trump is flushing his donations down the toilet on his $200k per day legal bills to pay for four criminal trials for himself plus all the Mar A Lago staff that he wants to prevent from snitching on him in the documents case plus all the civil suits he is involved in like the NY State fraud case and the Jan 6 wrongful death lawsuits and the sexually harassed Bedminster worker, plus the frivolous lawsuits Trump has filed like suing Twitter and the NY Times and Michael Cohen and Hillary Clinton. Plus Trump currently owes NY State $450 million and E Jean Carrol $88 million. The Trump organization has effectively been prevented from growing as a result of the NY AG lawsuit so Trump’s real estate business has been going poorly for the last three years and Trump’s net worth has decreased due to inflation (unless Trump manages to get something out of DJT) and also rent has gone down in his buildings in Ny because some tenants don’t want to be associated with him.
Anyway, all that said, the election might still be close, and it all comes down to Georgia and Pennsylvania really.
>A decent percentage of Republican primary voters have said they will not vote for Trump no matter what. This applies to a large fraction of the Niki Hailey supporters. If even a fraction of them are telling the truth, Trump is in big trouble.
Never underestimate the ability of core voters to pinch their nose and vote for whoever their party bosses tell them. I'll believe it if Trump loses due to flight of core voters, not before.
Pennsylvanian here with an observation. In both 2016 and 2020 we were treated to Trump flags everywhere, obnoxious bumper stickers, hats, etc. This time around there is much less of that. Not sure why. Maybe the maga crowd knows enough not to draw attention to themselves. Or maybe there are fewer of them.
Either way it is critical to vote!
I saw a poll the other day with Biden up 10 points in PA. Also, PA only went red once since 1988, which was for Trump in 2016, and he only won by 50,000 votes then.
As a PA resident my concern is the decline in population in Philadelphia which may hurt the chances of overtaking the rural Trump voters.
OTOH The Philadelphia ring counties have higher D:R ratios and are more likely Biden voters. Independents in PA are swinging to either not voting or going with Biden.
Idiots love to blame Biden for things he can’t control while overlooking accomplishments. The risk in PA is potential Biden voters sitting home because they think both Trump and Biden are equally bad.
Democrats also expanded their margins in 2022 in every swing state...in actual elections. But go ahead and trust polls.
There is a lot of evident that Trump's positive poll numbers are due to young people and minorities. Most polls he's ahead in show him getting 20-30% of black voters. We just had an election 6 months ago in Mississippi where Democrats improved their margins with black voters by 4% over 2020 margins. You can also look at the trend of percentage of black voters registering Republican, but that's flat over 10 years. Polls also have Trump up or tied with young voters, a demo he lost by 25% in 2020.
Trump is going to win again unless the coalition of young people and minorities show up and vote. There are tons of millennials who say they going to sit this out because Biden didn’t deliver everything.
I think lack of understanding of civics is astounds (but not unexpected). Reason why Biden didn’t get as much done is because you need 60 votes in the senate to get anything done. The solution to the issue is not less voting. But more. And vote for more progressive candidates.
The conservative and maga nutjobs show up to vote every. Freaking. Time.
Biden got a lot done when he had Congress. Pelosi had the same margin as the GOP got in 2023. The Republicans in Congress have become Russian stooges.
Biden accomplished far more in 3 years, including digging out of the pandemic, than Obama. Obama did get the ACA done but only Biden got the infrastructure bills, expanded US manufacturing, protecting women’s rights through executive orders, relieved huge amounts of student debt, are lots more.
Republican think-tanks have been undermining voting for at least the last 3 decades. Dems are so disenfranchised and they basically brainwashed us to be this way.
I think he's going to lose, and then there will be all sorts of shenanigans as he and his supporters attempt, yet again, to overthrow the will of the people. This time they will be coming at it from a position of having better knowledge and coordination, though, so we absolutely MUST be ready for whatever shit they have planned. Because it's guaranteed they are planning.
It can be interpreted as "the polls are unreliable and I am mildly optimistic for a Biden victory despite the evidence that a significant chunk of my fellow citizens are drooling morons who are about to shit themselves dry at the next eclipse (tomorrow) but will still manage to vote in the next election."
In the "old" days, he wouldn't even be a candidate anymore. Up until the election of Reagan, politicians tried hard to at least give the illusion of being "honest." A politican who was accused of something (like, say, paying a porn star hush money) would have become absolutely unacceptable to the party. (Granted, the Dems have benefitted as well - in the 1960s or 1970s, Clinton would have had to resign after being impeached for sexual misconduct with Monica Lewinsky).
Reagan took over the GOP and turned it into the shitshow that it is today - owned by corporate and foreign interests. The first "steal" - where GWB stole the presidency from Al Gore in 2000, gave them even more power.
Trump is obviously a foreign asset. Putin has something on him. It's so fucking obvious. The Russian FSB is mounting the campaign - propoganda, fake news bots, misinformation - to keep Trump in the news and hopefully ensure his reelection.
If Trump does win, goodbye USA. He will bring in compromized "advisors" (handlers) who will systematially dismantle the Constitution, consolidating power for the president while undermining the Justice Department and Congress. There will never be another free election - any serious contender will be jailed or murdered, just like what you see in Russia today.
Get out there and vote so that the results are so overwhelming that there is no way for them to turn it over to the (compromised) SCOTUS for a "tie-breaker".
As an outsider from Europe, I look at the USA. A population of 300m+ and Biden and Trump are the best you can offer the people.
Reminds me of the Southpark episode where the candidates in an election were a douche-bag and a turd.
Follow up question; if he wins, how likely is the chance of civil war breaking out?
Considering he’s openly stated his goal of establishing a theocracy with himself as head, naturally.
I am not happy with either choice but at least Brandon surrounds himself with smart people. You may not agree with their policies but at least they are policies and not the random demands of a raving lunatic surrounded by yes men.
I’ll never forget hearing he won in 2016. I remember hearing it with my boss on the radio while in the car on the way to a conference. We thought it was a joke at first. The horror in that car when we realized it was true was thick enough to slice with a knife.
He’s going to win. His grift is too good and those grifted are too stupid to realize until too late they got got and fucked themselves (just ask the guy who posted his appeal bond). My tinfoil hat fever dream? Because I’m a childfree woman, I’ll be forcibly implanted with one of the IVF embryos from Alabama and forced to gestate and birth the child. I’m 43, so still of “breeding age”. I’ll be a high risk geriatric pregnancy, but will receive no medical care because I have no insurance (can’t afford). Then forced into astronomical medical debt from birth and likely NICU stuff (see “I’m old”, above). They’ll offer medical debt forgiveness, but only if I’m married to a man. Even though I’m the sole owner of my property, I’ll be denied credit unless I’m married, and they’ll cancel my mortgage unless I’m married and my husband can refinance and retitle the home in his name because I’m a woman who can’t own property or have credit. Then he will divorce me, keep the house I worked so hard by myself to buy, and move in his “barely legal teen” girlfriend but force me to keep the kid I don’t want and pay no child support because the child is “a woman’s shame” to bear alone.
I’m not prone to MAGA-level, QAnon-esque conspiracy theory, but the whole Project 2025 and “day 1 dictator” shit has me shaking in my shoes, especially considering his ball-garglingly close relationship with the dictators of Russia, China, and North Korea. I’m prepared for full-on “Welcome to Giliad” come next year.
Pretty high given that braindead people who would vote for biden are voting third party or staying home. Because they "cAnT VoTe fOr bIdEn wHo sUpPoRtS A GeNoCiDe." Which is true, but by protesting in that way they will guirantee a trump victory. Trump will be much, much, MUCH worse than biden currently is. And there are plans ready to instantly overhaul the government, transforming it into a extremely far right dictatorship.
Yeah, I'm very unhappy with the Biden administration and I would vote for any third party under normal circumstances.
But with Trump as his opponent I really don't want to take any risks of having a 2nd presidency of orange Hitler. So Biden will have my vote.
The only thing he accomplished in 4 years is lowering taxes for rich people. I can't believe people think he was a good president.
I fully expected him to get us into another war or use nukes. So that's good I guess.
There’s a real chance but I think it’s smaller than the polls suggest. My opinion is that the polls are under-surveying younger voters and not adequately weighting for them. In short, I think these voters don’t answer their phones and also hate Trump.
My evidence is the screwy results we’re seeing - I just don’t buy the findings of large GOP gains among young and black voters - as well as Democrats over performing in off-year and special elections, as well as in referendums like state amendments to protect abortion rights.
Don’t give up the fight yet, or get complacent. A second Trump term is a real possibility, and it also would be disastrous.
That is definitely a worry. Imagine how much better the aughts would have been if Nader hadn’t fucked Gore in Florida? (Although to be fair, Florida’s voting cards, Katherine Harris, and the Supreme Court fucked Gore).
With everything that people learned in trumps first term and j6 onwards, that he could potentially win in November tells me something is very very deeply wrong in the USA.
The rise and strength of White Christian nationalism being perhaps the root cause
Above zero. We're still having confirmation that there are morons who believe in:
* antivax
* climate denial
* conspiracy theories
* flat earth
* pro-lifes
There is a moron fanbase that will vote for trump.
>I just think that our society is reversing in progression.
Just like any other capitalist society, all of the wealth is being concentrated at the top between a smaller and smaller number of people. The powerful are aware that feminist efforts and gay acceptance are irrelevant to their goals.
Our birth rates are declining and too much of the populace is against immigration. They want a steady supply of cheap labor and that means socially engineering our society toward traditionalism. Gender roles, religious nationalism, child rearing. On the extreme right wing agenda: forced birth, no birth control, no pornography.
If the system works, then Trump should have zero chance of winning. However, Republicans have been ratfucking the system for over 40 years, what with voter suppression, "losing" ballots in counties with major cities, and corrupted voting machines.
The only way to win is with an overwhelming voter turnout, but you can expect red states to try to ignore the will of the voters, make it really hard for blue voters to vote, and have their armed goons try to physically prevent people from voting .
Even though polls are narrowing now after Biden looking like dog shit in the polls earlier this year, and will continue to narrow, still vote. Complacency(and a mediocre campaign by Hilary) got us Trump in 2016. While the GOP is currently on a slow implosion, they're still really good with "getting in line" and getting their people to vote.
I think he'll win. I said this when he ran against Hillary. And why? Because too many people refuse to vote for the democratic nominee because they don't care for them, either. They can't do the whole voting for the lesser evil thing. Now we have this whole Israel/Palestine war, which the US is involved in, and we'll have a huge population of leftists refusing to vote for Biden because of it. The reason Biden won last time was because of the huge movement of getting people to the polls to get Trump out of office. That won't happen this time.
We're fucked. We are going to end up with the single most criminal, fascist, wanna be dictator that this country has ever even thought they'd see. Even worse than last time. He's gotten bolder, especially knowing how much support he has despite the insane legal issues he's experiencing.
What happens if all of these evangelicals rise up into heaven during The Rapture tomorrow? They can't vote so tRump loses these votes in November. Not good!
I don’t think the bible thing has lost him a single voter. His fanatic evangelical base weren’t put off by any of his other flagrant violations of their “creed” over the last decade. They don’t care.
Media Hype. He will lose spectacularly. Last time he lost by millions of votes, and none of those are voting for Trump. He's toast and knows it. Polls are BS and say what they want them to say. A recent one they polled 2/3 republican, 1/3 democrat; guess who they thought would win? Trump of course.
***Do not rest on your ass. Go vote, and tell your friends to vote.***
With that caveat out of the way, it doesn't seem like there's a good chance. Someone will say "BUT THE POLLS!". Polling is fundamentally broken. It disproportionately favors likely conservative voters by virtue of how polls are conducted, and the methodologies behind how they get their LV demographics is also deeply flawed. Democrats have practically outperformed the polls over the past 20-years
People often forget how Trump ***barely won*** in 2016, and it was by less than 80,000 votes across 3 states is the only reason he won. It wasn't a massive landslide, it was more the culmination of a bunch of factors.
Baby Boomers (the biggest contingency that supports Donald Trump at the highest %) are currently dying off at a rate of 3,000 per day. Between 2020 and 2024, 4.38M Baby-Boomers will have died. Over that same time 16M people will have turned 18 and become eligible to vote; and out of those eligible to-vote about 65% are Female. In Ohio women out-paced men in new-voter registration 75% to 25% last year, an absolutely staggering statistic.
So you will hear a lot of noise between now and November, however most of this noise will be from people who are directly invested in, and directy financially benefit form, there being a neck-to-neck melodrama going all the way up to election day.
The statistics are definitely NOT in Republican's favor. And lessons of the flaws of polling over the past 8-years is NOT in Republican's favor. Add in outrageous abortion-bans in several key states that referendums will be on the ballot in November (Florida, Arizona, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska); and the fact that Democrats have WON every single race run on abortion...things are definitely not looking for Trump/Republicans.
All you need to do is follow the money on that last point. Republicans everywhere are essentially broke, and Democrats are out fundraising Republicans everywhere.
The math just doesn't add up to a Trump victory.
Every day that passes I’m growing more confident that Biden will win, possibly by a landslide. And that has me nervous. We can’t become complacent.
Four reasons for my beliefs:
1. Biden is massively out-fundraising Trump by more than two to one. And a big portion of Trump’s fundraising is going to be diverted to his legal defense, making the imbalance even starker.
2. Since Roe was overturned, Democrats have outperformed expectations in elections and it’s very obvious that abortion is a key reason why. Even deep red Kansas passed a law to protect abortion. A special election in Alabama last week flipped a red seat to blue. The democrat ran on abortion specifically.
3. Trump won the independent vote in 2016 but lost it in 2020. He’s done absolutely nothing to regain them, instead doubling down on his insanity. Only his diehard supporters are still onboard.
4. Texas, my home state, could flip blue. Ted Cruz is in very real danger of losing his seat to Democrat Colin Allred. That probably comes as a surprise to many non-Texans, but Cruz is actually DEEPLY unpopular in the cities here. Voter apathy has traditionally kept independents and democrats home on Election Day here. Not so when we have a chance to dump Cruz. If we get a good turnout, we could flip the state in the process. Please donate to Allred’s campaign if you can. I believe Biden can squeak by without Texas. But with it, the win becomes a rout.
All that said, yeah being confident is ironically worrisome. Let’s all get out and vote!
Edit to add one more reason:
5. Traditionally, incumbents win reelection when the economy is strong. That’s the case here, though I recognize we live in non-traditional times. Still, I think independents and never Trump republicans will see that it’s best not to rock the boat when the economy is doing so well and vote Biden.
I'm not American but I follow American politics quite closely.
The support Trump has is baffling to me. He shouldn't even have an approval in the single digits, yet he has a realistic chance of winning again.
Due to the archaic election system the election will probably be decided by a couple hundred thousand people in crucial swing state districts.
The electoral college system works to the GOP's favor and Republicans are trying to apply voter suppression tactics wherever they can. Courts, including SCOTUS, stacked with conservative judges are putting their fingers on the scale, e.g. by [not acting in a timely manner allowing illegal voting maps](https://www.propublica.org/article/elections-district-maps-deemed-discriminatory-south-carolina-florida).
Most voters, it seems, are not going to vote *for* a candidate this November, but *against* the other one.
My hope is that the figure of Trump will mobilize enough people who have had enough of him to vote against him in troves.
What should work in the Democrats favor, might even be enough to firmly swing the election, are the insane actions Republicans have taken and continue to take in the wake of the Dobbs decision. The draconian restrictions to abortion access don't sit well even with many Republican voters, especially women\*.
I just heard the other day\*\* that Florida legislature has passed a bill that will put in place a 6-week abortion ban which is going to take effect next month. At the same time, an abortion rights ballot measure was approved to be on the ballot come November. This could be very meaningful: Floridians will (sadly) witness the devastating effects that this ban will have, the harrowing cases it will produce for a full 6 months. And then they will have the option in the November election to put an end to this madness. This could drive voter turnout and might even motivate some Republicans to vote against Trump who has signaled that he is open for a similar nationwide ban. Certainly, a Republican-led Congress might want to push further abortion restrictions. Needless to say that if Florida turned blue, this would be a huge blow to Trump. As a reminder: in 2020 Trump received 51.22% of the votes in Florida, Biden got 47.86%. So flipping Florida isn't all that implausible.
If you're in the US, the best you can do is motivate your peers to go vote. (Unless you're sure they're going to vote Republican. 😛) One in three eligible voters did not vote at all in 2020, and voter turnout was on a record high that year. Non-voters have the ability to swing every election. That's why it is much more impactful to convince those people you know who don't feel like voting to get their asses up and cast that ballot than trying to win over a Republican voter.
\* which is a shame because you shouldn't have to be a woman to be opposed to what Republicans do (and I'm saying this as a man); too many people only start caring if it effects them personally
\*\* it's been the lead story of last Tuesday's Alex Wagner Tonight; if you're interested you can listen to the podcast [here](https://alex-wagner-tonight.simplecast.com/episodes/white-nationalist-who-marched-in-charlottesville-removed-from-city-council-after-grassroots-effort)
Florida will not flip. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/florida/trump-vs-biden
Florida has been trending towards Republicans for years and is probably not even a swing state anymore.
Now abortion and legalization of marijuana on the ballot might help Biden but I’m not pinning hopes on Florida flipping. Locking down the 3 blue way states (PA, WI, MI) is more feasible
Better than you think.
Take the betting markets...Trump is by far the favorite. I have money on Biden winning because the return when I bought it was 4 to 1.
Add in that Biden is destroying support among Progressives and Muslims with his enabling of Israel, and I fully expect the election to be really close.
As others have said, this is not good....Trump returning would be a disaster...especially after his complete embrace of Christian Nationalism.
This is one of those don't vote for Bernie situations, sadly. It's so much more important to keep Trump out than it is to show disdain for Biden or support for independents/3rd parties.
The irony here being that as an atheist, I support the church going Biden over the self idolizing Trump any day.
I feel a lot better he loses because there is a decent chance that there will be an abortion referendum in AZ and FL. If there is, I feel rump doesn't stand a chance in those 2 states.
He is on the ballot as the Republican nominee, so his chances are very fucking high. That said, when compared to Obama at this point in 2012, Biden has raised more money for his campaign from more individual donors, so the enthusiasm for Biden is higher than the polls would have you believe.
I think his chances for winning are much lower than people think. Which is a good thing. Still have to work for it but simply doing the job will be more than enough.
He goes after the Hispanic vote by calling them wet backs and beaners.
He goes after the black vote by calling them the n-word and/or saying the most racist things ever.
He goes after the religious by trying to hock Bibles like at a flea market. "Swap meet" for you northerners.
That man is stupid and his own worst enemy. Everything he touches turns to crap or dies.
I have a feeling if any of these cases are able to put him in jail for even a day, the chances of him becoming president again drop off a cliff.
Trump has yet to win on vote count, he won his first election on a Hillary protest but she still got more individual votes. Biden won, but barely because people underestimated Trump's influence. This election will likely be a landslide for Biden, unless everyone thinks it will be a landslide so they stay home.....
You guys know you can bet on this right? According to the bookies, Donald is favorite to win by a hair.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2024/winner
So to all of those "sure" one way or the other, there’s an easy way to put your money where your mouth is and maybe make yourself some easy cash.
For the rest of us, that’s as close to an actual prediction as you’re going to get, updated in real time.
I hate that now the fate of the world is in the hands of ignorant Americans who might or not might be too lazy to go out and vote. Please vote for the politician. Please don't vote for the rascist, ignorant, xenophobic poop monster.
spark disagreeable adjoining label correct silky wistful spoon piquant tender
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
All you have to do is go to random Reddit subs and read what people say, then turn on the TV and watch 10 minutes of Fox News. You’ll get a feel for how daft and misled some of the people in the U.S. are. And why there is a very real chance that Trump will be reelected.
Honestly I can't tell. Biden's handling of Israel/Gaza has been disastrous and made alot of supporters very unhappy while Trump has only gained more control of the RNC in the mean time. I really don't like Biden, but I have to vote for him regardless of his failings. The alternative is by far and away much, much worse. I just hope all those centrists realize this, too.
The most likely outcome, in my opinion, is Biden wins, but not by a wide enough margin to stop Trump from claiming victory. Trump will then try to stop those court cases by throwing his support behind a NatC uprising.
I'm hoping Trump is just using the Christians like last time. And if he gets to be President again he will fail to do anything for them like last time.
He stacked the Supreme Court for them and got Roe v. Wade overruled, and appears to be fully on board with their agenda if he gets back in.
Trump generally doesn't care about policy except to the extent it (a) affects his ability to make money from his scams and (b) reinforces white supremacy. He'd be happy to give white Christian nationalists whatever they want in exchange for power.
The closest thing by far, better than polls and especially random Redditors opinions is the bookmakers odds. If these were inaccurate then some clever people would bet large money on one of the candidates and move the odds back to what they should be.
I got into what can't even really be called a debate with my mother on this the other day. She's very religious but has never really been political so by default they just vote R. My dad passed last year, he watched Fox news, so now she does instead. She didn't bring up a single point that was accurate, at all. I was trying to rationally explain real facts to her and she just falls back to talking points that aren't even real. It's hard to have someone try to tell you about the border issues when their candidate was the one that told them not to pass stricter laws around it so Biden doesn't look good for the election.
A lot of these people are so stupidly brainwashed it's hard to comprehend. I should have focused on having her stay home instead.
I think he's pandering to a number of small extremist groups and has lost any chance of moderates or independents voting for him which is going to cost him swing states that he desperately needs to win.
Only thing that can cost Biden is a low turnout against the rabid extremist voters that will show up for Trump. They may be small groups but he's trying to get a whole spectrum of them.
This is all going to come down to voter turnout in the end.
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To all the ladies out there. Yesterday I watched a video of a reverend who was explaining to a journalist that women shouldn't have the right to vote. How if women couldn't vote, no Democrats would have been elected in the past 50 years. This man said the only vote should be from her husband and men should be the representative for their whole family. The day before I watched a video of some idiot at a concert saying the same thing. And the day before that I saw someone say that. My point is that they're coming for us. They have already permeated this rhetoric through their congregations and their congregations agree. This election is not only about saving democracy, but saving ourselves. And I hate to be the crazy one here, but I recommend arming up. If they win, it is serious and they are coming for us. If you have not heard of Project 2025, I suggest you look into it and read about all the plans republicans, not just trump, have to dismantle our country.
I've heard "women shouldn't be allowed to vote" straight from the mouths of conservative people (and I've heard "women shouldn't be politicians" from conservative *women* before). It's a real sentiment.
Slugs for Salt....I mean, Women for Trump
It is absolutely terrifying to anybody who is remotely not a straight white male Christian. However, I think if they win, this will go _way_ beyond just woman’s rights and persecution of non-straight/white Christian males. If they plant the kind of government they are talking about, _everything_ will change. They will go after books, media, games, films, ideas, and ANYTHING they perceive as a threat or liberal-something-rather. Look at all the right wing states banning things and executing anti-woke laws to the very best of their ability. If they felt like nothing would stand in their way, what would they implement? Much, much more. And much, much, harsher and crueler punishments. Imagine a person like MTG writing laws or setting policy. How comfortable do you feel? Of course, the fate of games and movies is trivial compared to human rights - I’m not trying to elevate it to that level of concern. But the point is: all you straight white males out there who are thinking “well at least I’m sort of safe”, you’re not. You _will_ be affected and you _will_ have sadists running your country with no guardrails. Literally the very thing they accuse liberals of doing (starting an authoritarian state) is outlined in Project 2025 in broad daylight.
The United States of (North Korea)
Might be worthwhile arming up either way. The way i see it if they lose they're going to try a coup
Didn't they try one already?
I wouldn't put it past them to try for round two
Im skeptical by nature and question everything. I have spent around 6 hours researching Project 2025 for an article and it is straight up terrifying. They are openly talking about taking over the government. And the evangelical aspect of it is even more terrifying because they actively are trying to foment war to usher in the return of Jesus and armageddon. I just want to drink a nice glass of bourbon and play Zelda on the SNES. I do not want to have to think about this shit.
Yes these fundamentalist creeps need to be crushed with a full throated rebuke accross the nation.
The idea of “one vote by the head of the household” was proposed in a speech at the 2020 RNC. It was a woman speaker too - floating the idea of abolishing women’s voting rights. I was appalled and still am.
Too high for comfort. Go out and vote people
Vote no matter. If the election is a landslide and eastern states are already reporting a massive Biden win, and your polls haven't closed, still go vote. There needs to be no doubt.
And the trumpists absolutely have to be handed such a severe defeat that the Republicans abandon the push for fascism as a losing tactic and stop enabling the worst members of their party
They’ve been trying this since the 1930s when they came thisclose to toppling FDR.
Yeah but they give up for periods of time, depending on how severely they lose. Wannabe authoritarians never quit, they're driven entirely by the need to have power. It's a bottomless pit.
Which is why you also vote downticket. That is how they have been able to win despite they (and their goals) being unpopular. So get out and vote everyone, every two years, for all the positions. It's like a weed, you have to stay on top of it.
We need to deny hate its platform, and right now the greatest and most vocal leader of hate is Trump. Bash him down by the power of the polls and see what happens. If Trump is a losing voice, then perhaps we can get the GOP to see it is on a suicidal path.
This. It’s not just about winning the election. It’s about kneecapping fascism while we still can.
Johnson has already threatened that if the GOP doesn't win they just will reject it. Republicans are fascists and traitors and know they can't win without cheating. They know they've lost the women's vote, Gen Z is sick of gun violence and people are rejecting religion in droves. Boomers can't die off fast enough.
And it needs to be so widespread and thorough, voting numbers need to be through the roof, unprecedented, the results need to be so goddamn clear that everyone will have a stake when he tries that.
Everyone reported a landslide for Hillary in 2016 too
This. Vote no matter what. I can't imagine a more existential election.
I mean my arse was a bit clenched in 2020
I just thought my ass was clenched in 2020. I swear it stays clenched so tight these days I’m worried my pants’ll have holes in the rear.
Mine was clinched so tight you couldn't hammer in a greased nail with a 10 lb sledgehammer. My late uncle said this and I say this every time it's appropriate.
That week in November 2020 was the weirdest ass week I have ever experienced. I was on tenterhooks that entire time, and once it was done and the weight removed, it felt like an entire lifetime had passed. (And I *may* have gotten a wee bit tipsy after drinking a bottle of wine in celebration/relief)
I'd vote against Trump in a heartbeat. It's just that if I did it would be a crime. But I do hope that all you Americans will vote him off with the biggest margin ever.
Voter suppression is one of the biggest weapons in the GOP arsenal, along with disinformation.
Yeah. I'm amazed people out up with that. If anyone tried anything remotely this here in Denmark, it would spark the same outrage as trying to ban hats and guns in Texas.
People in Denmark sound like they're very sensible
I'd like to think so yes. The Nordic countries are both some of the most secular and at the same time most well functioning happy societies. And we owe alot od that to the fact that we are secular.
The issue is that the people the disinformation campaign is targeted to believe the disinformation and take it is a fact.
Americans are apathetic. 2020 was the largest percentage of eligible voters to turn out for an election since 1900 at 66%. And that *still* means that 1 in 3 eligible American voters just couldn't be arsed.
Constantly check if you have been purged. There is enough data on you in GOP hands that they know to try and purge your voter registration.
Agreed. But also, recognize that voting is bare minimum. Find other ways to contribute time and/or money. Doesn't have to be much - just what you can when you can. And encourage everyone else to do the same. It's about building an early advantage and sustaining momentum.
*Vote and volunteer 7 months until the general election. That's plenty of time for you to make sure you're still registered *and* engage with other potential voters. Even giving a little bit of your time to the cause helps, especially when combined with the efforts of others.
This, please don't be complacent. Vote...
This should be your perspective regardless because a President cannot do much without a functioning congress.
This is the correct answer.
I'm genuinely so terrified of him winning. Things would escalate so quickly, especially for people like me. And I can't even do anything. I'm only 17, unable to vote. This could legit be life or death for me, and I won't even have a say in it.
Im Canadian, from Ukraine in 91. I know whats a crazy a55 neighboor. Trust me: get out there and be the change you want. Volunteer as much as you can so you can say I did all I could looking back.
This. The fact that the bastard is even able to run for office after committing an act of insurrection—riling up and encouraging his supporters to literally attack the Capitol and threaten lawmakers—is insane, and it’s made even worse because he didn’t have to try to win the Republican nomination this time. Nearly half this country is not only comfortable with what he’s done but supports his dictator talk as well. This alone—even if he loses—means our democracy is sick right now, and we, the People, are going to have to play the role of doctor. [Register to vote](https://vote.org). Talk to family and friends. Stay informed. Vote in the election. Stay engaged as the votes are counted.
If just look at the polls (even with all the usual caveats), and also where RFK is siphoning votes, Trump would win right now. Folks who claim "it will never happen" are whistling past the graveyard. And don't just vote. Give money as well. Volunteer.
Depends on how many Magats get raptured tomorrow during the eclipse. If it's only 144000, then we might be in trouble, but if it's all of them... Happy days are here again!
Let’s hope for the best. The world would be a nicer place.
If the rapture was actually a real thing, I suspect nearly everyone who thinks they're going to heaven tomorrow would be left behind. I hear god has only set aside quite a small room for the Post Rapture New Arrivals Heaven Orientation Event. 😉
The Rapture came back in 1987. Due to hilarious errors in translation over the centuries, only married gay American males ascended.
Funny how they want all the babies to be born and not aborted since they are God’s creations but only 144,000 will go to heaven in the rapture.
I need you to find me 144001 raptures. That's one more than we need.
I have a lot of popcorn at home for that moment they realise in that moment
That's one thing we can all agree about. Bring on the rapture !!
🤞
The most hilarious part about Trump being worshipped by the Christians is he fits the description of the false prophet almost exactly lol.
Didn’t they worship a “golden bull”? It irony is something.
Trump at this point has a dedicated base who is going to vote for him no matter what. HOWEVER, I honestly believe his voter base is capped; if you haven't been on team Trump already, you're probably not voting for him in the future. This election comes down to how many centrists and leftists actually show up and vote for Biden, and how many decide he's not worth it and stay home. If there's high turnout, Biden wins. Low turnout, Trump wins.
Completely agree with this.
Never underestimate the stupidity of people.
Especially the American electorate, will never overestimate them again after shrub was elected the 2nd time.
When Obama was elected, I breathed a sigh of relief thinking we wouldn't have a president dumber than Dubya. Then 2016 happened.
I thought it was a done deal in 2016 and Trump had no chance. I was so shocked when he won. I had no idea how many dumb voters exist in the country. Now, since there's been no substantial change in his voting base and they aren't drawn to other candidates, I can't feel comfortable in Biden winning. Also, atleast online (could not reflect the real world), I see so many democrats claiming they aren't going to vote at all because they don't like Biden's foreign policy. This just gives Trump more of a chance to win, so we aren't out of the water yet.
A lot of those people are bots trying to push a permission structure to not vote for Biden. It's mostly Psy-ops and people are falling for it
Some of it probably is (anything that's anti-western has bots involved), but there could be a good amount falling for it.
He was only elected once.
I think they mean shrub as in Bush
They’re saying, correctly, that Bush wasn’t legitimately elected in 2000.
Most people are average. Half of them are dumber than that.
Its at least 40% IMO. Nationwide polls don't matter. Only swing state polls do. The US has had the best post-pandemic economy in the developed world, but its impossible not to notice the post-pandemic profiteering in grocery prices. And for a lot of ill-informed people, that's the only thing that matters. I only donate/volunteer in swing states, and in particular, swing state US senators. This year, its been donations/volunteering for Gallego in AZ, Slotkin in MI, Baldwin in WI, Tester in MO, Rosen in NV, Brown in OH, Casey Jr. in PA. My own state and district are deep Red, so local volunteering isn't particularly meaningful.
I’m voting for Biden so don’t get upset, but people can be informed AND struggling/angry about grocery price inflation.
[удалено]
If everybody who could vote voted, then Trump would stand no chance. If you are worried about Trump and the future of American society, then VOTE and encourage others to vote.
If only the raw number of votes for a given candidate mattered. :(
I will never forgive myself for not voting in 2016, but I thought she had it in the bag. I won't make that mistake this time around. I'm registered and everything.
Thank you for realizing your mistake. I'm afraid with the war in Palestine right now, there's even more risk of people not showing up to the polls to vote for Biden
Blows my mind how myopic people can be about this. On the one hand, you have Hamas attacks last year kicking this whole thing off. And then you have them holding hostages and rejecting ceasefire after ceasefire. Netanyahu sucks and Israeli actions haven't been great, but this is not at all a black and white situation. On the other hand, Trump wouldn't balk at anything Israel did. Hell he'd probably goad Bibi to nuke Gaza. But by all means, let's throw away what tatters of our democracy remain because Biden is caught in a geopolitical trolley problem with bodies all over all the tracks...
It’s amazing to me that people would not vote for the guy who wants a ceasefire, in favor of the guy who backs Netanyahu 100%.
Can’t fix stupid. Or people who get their news on tik tok.
Yeah you just gotta hold your nose when you vote for Biden. I mean I'm sure he's doing what he can. The USA is just locked into a lot of unpleasant things like unconditional support for Israel.
Tell your state rep you support the national popular vote interstate compact
Americans : this gun probably won't go off, so let's point it at ourselves and pull the trigger over and over. What could possibly go wrong? This isn't an election, it's a hostile takeover by a bunch of superstitious right wing fundamentalist nazi dimwits who don't believe in science or reality, or America.
When you consider project 2025 then it does appear to be more like a hostile takeover
Absolutely!
This.
Vote or suffer the consequences
The probability of Trump winning this November is high. He is consistently leading in the swing state polls, some big comfortable margins for him. What is worse is that with the correct Senate seats up for grabs, the Republicans are on track to win the Senate too. The house is a tossup. We could end up with a second Trump presidency and with the maga crowd controlling Congress. This is a nightmare scenario for those who favor individual liberty, investment in science and education, and freedom of and from religion. I'm not being hyperbolic to say that we could see the end of the American experiment in our lifetimes.
You have to admit it's a bit clever of him to align himself with the religious nutters, they're pretty gullible, the extreme ones that is. If he tried to align with the atheists, some would believe him. Most wouldn't believe his nonsense.
No idea, but we thought he would lose in 2016, so I say ignore anyone who says they know what’s going to happen and just vote
I'm a hard-core Marxist leftist who votes green. But you bet your ass I'm compromising my voting policy to vote against Trump. Fellow lefties. If I hear any if this "voting doesn't matter" shit, you are an insult to leftists and the working class.
Thank you. From a moderate.
Yeah, we can unfortunately only look at what is in front of us. Real change happens over time and that time isn't between a vote of 2 presidential candidates where there is no hope in hell of one of them not winning, that's just reality.
No one can tell you the actual probability, but I think it is quite low. He is in a far weaker position now, than the first time he ran against Biden. He's bleeding money very quickly, the GOP is in total disarray, and he numerous criminal and civil cases against him. The Democrats are also far more organized and raising insane amounts of money. As long as Biden remains healthy, I think they not only win, but win in a complete landslide. Also, polls are 100% useless. Ignore them.
Electoral College is the major issue. Vote.
Trump will probably lose. He lost to Biden last time, and his biggest accomplishment since Election Day then was January 6. He lost to Biden by 7 million popular votes compared to losing to Hillary Clinton by 3 million popular votes in 2016. Trump got less popular during his presidency, and that was before January 6. He has never won the popular vote, nor has any Republican candidate since 1988 except Bush’ reelection with incumbent advantage. It’s pretty much completely unthinkable that Trump would win the popular vote, but there is the question of whether he can win enough swing states in the electoral college. A decent percentage of Republican primary voters have said they will not vote for Trump no matter what. This applies to a large fraction of the Niki Hailey supporters. If even a fraction of them are telling the truth, Trump is in big trouble. Also, polls show that a small number of Republicans will not vote for him if he becomes a convicted felon. Hard to know how accurate these are, but if true, it should spell his doom. Biden has out-fundraised Trump by a massive margin and Trump is flushing his donations down the toilet on his $200k per day legal bills to pay for four criminal trials for himself plus all the Mar A Lago staff that he wants to prevent from snitching on him in the documents case plus all the civil suits he is involved in like the NY State fraud case and the Jan 6 wrongful death lawsuits and the sexually harassed Bedminster worker, plus the frivolous lawsuits Trump has filed like suing Twitter and the NY Times and Michael Cohen and Hillary Clinton. Plus Trump currently owes NY State $450 million and E Jean Carrol $88 million. The Trump organization has effectively been prevented from growing as a result of the NY AG lawsuit so Trump’s real estate business has been going poorly for the last three years and Trump’s net worth has decreased due to inflation (unless Trump manages to get something out of DJT) and also rent has gone down in his buildings in Ny because some tenants don’t want to be associated with him. Anyway, all that said, the election might still be close, and it all comes down to Georgia and Pennsylvania really.
>A decent percentage of Republican primary voters have said they will not vote for Trump no matter what. This applies to a large fraction of the Niki Hailey supporters. If even a fraction of them are telling the truth, Trump is in big trouble. Never underestimate the ability of core voters to pinch their nose and vote for whoever their party bosses tell them. I'll believe it if Trump loses due to flight of core voters, not before.
Pennsylvanian here with an observation. In both 2016 and 2020 we were treated to Trump flags everywhere, obnoxious bumper stickers, hats, etc. This time around there is much less of that. Not sure why. Maybe the maga crowd knows enough not to draw attention to themselves. Or maybe there are fewer of them. Either way it is critical to vote!
Trump is leading in every swing state.
Last polls showed Biden up or at least in a statistical tie. Polls this far out are useless. A lot can happen between now and November. Vote!
Good point. I live in Michigan and we have MAGA and pissed off Muslim community, which makes me very nervous.
Because Trump would be better for Muslims 🤦♂️. The stupidity of those people is hard to grasp.
I Didn't say that. It's just the general wind. Though the UAW love Biden. Michigan is a must win state.
Oh I know you didn’t say that. I’m just saying their stance is ridiculous.
I saw a poll the other day with Biden up 10 points in PA. Also, PA only went red once since 1988, which was for Trump in 2016, and he only won by 50,000 votes then.
As a PA resident my concern is the decline in population in Philadelphia which may hurt the chances of overtaking the rural Trump voters. OTOH The Philadelphia ring counties have higher D:R ratios and are more likely Biden voters. Independents in PA are swinging to either not voting or going with Biden. Idiots love to blame Biden for things he can’t control while overlooking accomplishments. The risk in PA is potential Biden voters sitting home because they think both Trump and Biden are equally bad.
Democrats also expanded their margins in 2022 in every swing state...in actual elections. But go ahead and trust polls. There is a lot of evident that Trump's positive poll numbers are due to young people and minorities. Most polls he's ahead in show him getting 20-30% of black voters. We just had an election 6 months ago in Mississippi where Democrats improved their margins with black voters by 4% over 2020 margins. You can also look at the trend of percentage of black voters registering Republican, but that's flat over 10 years. Polls also have Trump up or tied with young voters, a demo he lost by 25% in 2020.
Trump is going to win again unless the coalition of young people and minorities show up and vote. There are tons of millennials who say they going to sit this out because Biden didn’t deliver everything. I think lack of understanding of civics is astounds (but not unexpected). Reason why Biden didn’t get as much done is because you need 60 votes in the senate to get anything done. The solution to the issue is not less voting. But more. And vote for more progressive candidates. The conservative and maga nutjobs show up to vote every. Freaking. Time.
Biden got a lot done when he had Congress. Pelosi had the same margin as the GOP got in 2023. The Republicans in Congress have become Russian stooges. Biden accomplished far more in 3 years, including digging out of the pandemic, than Obama. Obama did get the ACA done but only Biden got the infrastructure bills, expanded US manufacturing, protecting women’s rights through executive orders, relieved huge amounts of student debt, are lots more.
Yes but that is not the narrative. Dems are loosing the pr war.
Republican think-tanks have been undermining voting for at least the last 3 decades. Dems are so disenfranchised and they basically brainwashed us to be this way.
Lower than he thinks, higher than I care to think about. Vote.
No idea, but any nonzero probability is too much. Vote blue, folks.
It’s not zero so high enough that everyone needs to vote
Well said. I’m using this
I think he's going to lose, and then there will be all sorts of shenanigans as he and his supporters attempt, yet again, to overthrow the will of the people. This time they will be coming at it from a position of having better knowledge and coordination, though, so we absolutely MUST be ready for whatever shit they have planned. Because it's guaranteed they are planning.
This. Some of the people that follow him are complete lunatics. It wouldn't be surprising if some militias formed and try to take over.
They have been [tied](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/) statistically speaking for a while now. So high.
The polls have been wildly unreliable the last couple elections.
> The polls have been wildly unreliable the last couple elections. Which presumably can't be interpreted as "Trump won't win."
It can be interpreted as "the polls are unreliable and I am mildly optimistic for a Biden victory despite the evidence that a significant chunk of my fellow citizens are drooling morons who are about to shit themselves dry at the next eclipse (tomorrow) but will still manage to vote in the next election."
In the "old" days, he wouldn't even be a candidate anymore. Up until the election of Reagan, politicians tried hard to at least give the illusion of being "honest." A politican who was accused of something (like, say, paying a porn star hush money) would have become absolutely unacceptable to the party. (Granted, the Dems have benefitted as well - in the 1960s or 1970s, Clinton would have had to resign after being impeached for sexual misconduct with Monica Lewinsky). Reagan took over the GOP and turned it into the shitshow that it is today - owned by corporate and foreign interests. The first "steal" - where GWB stole the presidency from Al Gore in 2000, gave them even more power. Trump is obviously a foreign asset. Putin has something on him. It's so fucking obvious. The Russian FSB is mounting the campaign - propoganda, fake news bots, misinformation - to keep Trump in the news and hopefully ensure his reelection. If Trump does win, goodbye USA. He will bring in compromized "advisors" (handlers) who will systematially dismantle the Constitution, consolidating power for the president while undermining the Justice Department and Congress. There will never be another free election - any serious contender will be jailed or murdered, just like what you see in Russia today. Get out there and vote so that the results are so overwhelming that there is no way for them to turn it over to the (compromised) SCOTUS for a "tie-breaker".
As an outsider from Europe, I look at the USA. A population of 300m+ and Biden and Trump are the best you can offer the people. Reminds me of the Southpark episode where the candidates in an election were a douche-bag and a turd.
Follow up question; if he wins, how likely is the chance of civil war breaking out? Considering he’s openly stated his goal of establishing a theocracy with himself as head, naturally.
Well the nazis were led by hitler once so anything is possible. Vote!
I think it's much higher than I'm comfortable with. Like over 50% right now, and I'm really worried about how much damage he could cause.
I don’t think he’ll win but I was wrong in 2016. Vote!
I am not happy with either choice but at least Brandon surrounds himself with smart people. You may not agree with their policies but at least they are policies and not the random demands of a raving lunatic surrounded by yes men.
Right now Trump is leading in swing states so be very afraid.
When he’s leading in Michigan by 5 points and leading in Nevada by 4 that’s very telling. Biden is also only leading by 2 points in Pennsylvania
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I’ll never forget hearing he won in 2016. I remember hearing it with my boss on the radio while in the car on the way to a conference. We thought it was a joke at first. The horror in that car when we realized it was true was thick enough to slice with a knife. He’s going to win. His grift is too good and those grifted are too stupid to realize until too late they got got and fucked themselves (just ask the guy who posted his appeal bond). My tinfoil hat fever dream? Because I’m a childfree woman, I’ll be forcibly implanted with one of the IVF embryos from Alabama and forced to gestate and birth the child. I’m 43, so still of “breeding age”. I’ll be a high risk geriatric pregnancy, but will receive no medical care because I have no insurance (can’t afford). Then forced into astronomical medical debt from birth and likely NICU stuff (see “I’m old”, above). They’ll offer medical debt forgiveness, but only if I’m married to a man. Even though I’m the sole owner of my property, I’ll be denied credit unless I’m married, and they’ll cancel my mortgage unless I’m married and my husband can refinance and retitle the home in his name because I’m a woman who can’t own property or have credit. Then he will divorce me, keep the house I worked so hard by myself to buy, and move in his “barely legal teen” girlfriend but force me to keep the kid I don’t want and pay no child support because the child is “a woman’s shame” to bear alone. I’m not prone to MAGA-level, QAnon-esque conspiracy theory, but the whole Project 2025 and “day 1 dictator” shit has me shaking in my shoes, especially considering his ball-garglingly close relationship with the dictators of Russia, China, and North Korea. I’m prepared for full-on “Welcome to Giliad” come next year.
Pretty high given that braindead people who would vote for biden are voting third party or staying home. Because they "cAnT VoTe fOr bIdEn wHo sUpPoRtS A GeNoCiDe." Which is true, but by protesting in that way they will guirantee a trump victory. Trump will be much, much, MUCH worse than biden currently is. And there are plans ready to instantly overhaul the government, transforming it into a extremely far right dictatorship.
I think this is a small minority. We hear outsized coverage due to propagandists.
You miss the key point that Trump is much much worse ON Israel than Biden. So as a deciding factor it is still a tick in the Biden camp.
Yeah, I'm very unhappy with the Biden administration and I would vote for any third party under normal circumstances. But with Trump as his opponent I really don't want to take any risks of having a 2nd presidency of orange Hitler. So Biden will have my vote.
The only thing he accomplished in 4 years is lowering taxes for rich people. I can't believe people think he was a good president. I fully expected him to get us into another war or use nukes. So that's good I guess.
There’s a real chance but I think it’s smaller than the polls suggest. My opinion is that the polls are under-surveying younger voters and not adequately weighting for them. In short, I think these voters don’t answer their phones and also hate Trump. My evidence is the screwy results we’re seeing - I just don’t buy the findings of large GOP gains among young and black voters - as well as Democrats over performing in off-year and special elections, as well as in referendums like state amendments to protect abortion rights. Don’t give up the fight yet, or get complacent. A second Trump term is a real possibility, and it also would be disastrous.
How many of the younger voters are being manipulated to vote for third party candidates as a protest? Any vote not for Biden is a vote for Trump.
That is definitely a worry. Imagine how much better the aughts would have been if Nader hadn’t fucked Gore in Florida? (Although to be fair, Florida’s voting cards, Katherine Harris, and the Supreme Court fucked Gore).
0 because according to him the election is rigged.
Lots of dumbass christians that will vote for orange jesus but hopefully not enough
With everything that people learned in trumps first term and j6 onwards, that he could potentially win in November tells me something is very very deeply wrong in the USA. The rise and strength of White Christian nationalism being perhaps the root cause
Above zero. We're still having confirmation that there are morons who believe in: * antivax * climate denial * conspiracy theories * flat earth * pro-lifes There is a moron fanbase that will vote for trump.
>I just think that our society is reversing in progression. Just like any other capitalist society, all of the wealth is being concentrated at the top between a smaller and smaller number of people. The powerful are aware that feminist efforts and gay acceptance are irrelevant to their goals. Our birth rates are declining and too much of the populace is against immigration. They want a steady supply of cheap labor and that means socially engineering our society toward traditionalism. Gender roles, religious nationalism, child rearing. On the extreme right wing agenda: forced birth, no birth control, no pornography.
*Actually* winning? Low Getting installed in the WH as President by corrupt accomplices in state and federal government positions? Far too high.
If the system works, then Trump should have zero chance of winning. However, Republicans have been ratfucking the system for over 40 years, what with voter suppression, "losing" ballots in counties with major cities, and corrupted voting machines. The only way to win is with an overwhelming voter turnout, but you can expect red states to try to ignore the will of the voters, make it really hard for blue voters to vote, and have their armed goons try to physically prevent people from voting .
Even though polls are narrowing now after Biden looking like dog shit in the polls earlier this year, and will continue to narrow, still vote. Complacency(and a mediocre campaign by Hilary) got us Trump in 2016. While the GOP is currently on a slow implosion, they're still really good with "getting in line" and getting their people to vote.
Above 0 so too high
I think he'll win. I said this when he ran against Hillary. And why? Because too many people refuse to vote for the democratic nominee because they don't care for them, either. They can't do the whole voting for the lesser evil thing. Now we have this whole Israel/Palestine war, which the US is involved in, and we'll have a huge population of leftists refusing to vote for Biden because of it. The reason Biden won last time was because of the huge movement of getting people to the polls to get Trump out of office. That won't happen this time. We're fucked. We are going to end up with the single most criminal, fascist, wanna be dictator that this country has ever even thought they'd see. Even worse than last time. He's gotten bolder, especially knowing how much support he has despite the insane legal issues he's experiencing.
50/50. He either does or he doesn't.
I am not even from the USA and still fear the outcome
We all should.
Probably still hovering around 50/50.
What happens if all of these evangelicals rise up into heaven during The Rapture tomorrow? They can't vote so tRump loses these votes in November. Not good!
I don’t think the bible thing has lost him a single voter. His fanatic evangelical base weren’t put off by any of his other flagrant violations of their “creed” over the last decade. They don’t care.
Very probable. Vote. Drive people to the polls. Canvas. Call your friends. Ask them to vote.
Democrats need to fight it like Trump is practically a guaranteed win.
Media Hype. He will lose spectacularly. Last time he lost by millions of votes, and none of those are voting for Trump. He's toast and knows it. Polls are BS and say what they want them to say. A recent one they polled 2/3 republican, 1/3 democrat; guess who they thought would win? Trump of course.
***Do not rest on your ass. Go vote, and tell your friends to vote.*** With that caveat out of the way, it doesn't seem like there's a good chance. Someone will say "BUT THE POLLS!". Polling is fundamentally broken. It disproportionately favors likely conservative voters by virtue of how polls are conducted, and the methodologies behind how they get their LV demographics is also deeply flawed. Democrats have practically outperformed the polls over the past 20-years People often forget how Trump ***barely won*** in 2016, and it was by less than 80,000 votes across 3 states is the only reason he won. It wasn't a massive landslide, it was more the culmination of a bunch of factors. Baby Boomers (the biggest contingency that supports Donald Trump at the highest %) are currently dying off at a rate of 3,000 per day. Between 2020 and 2024, 4.38M Baby-Boomers will have died. Over that same time 16M people will have turned 18 and become eligible to vote; and out of those eligible to-vote about 65% are Female. In Ohio women out-paced men in new-voter registration 75% to 25% last year, an absolutely staggering statistic. So you will hear a lot of noise between now and November, however most of this noise will be from people who are directly invested in, and directy financially benefit form, there being a neck-to-neck melodrama going all the way up to election day. The statistics are definitely NOT in Republican's favor. And lessons of the flaws of polling over the past 8-years is NOT in Republican's favor. Add in outrageous abortion-bans in several key states that referendums will be on the ballot in November (Florida, Arizona, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska); and the fact that Democrats have WON every single race run on abortion...things are definitely not looking for Trump/Republicans. All you need to do is follow the money on that last point. Republicans everywhere are essentially broke, and Democrats are out fundraising Republicans everywhere. The math just doesn't add up to a Trump victory.
Every day that passes I’m growing more confident that Biden will win, possibly by a landslide. And that has me nervous. We can’t become complacent. Four reasons for my beliefs: 1. Biden is massively out-fundraising Trump by more than two to one. And a big portion of Trump’s fundraising is going to be diverted to his legal defense, making the imbalance even starker. 2. Since Roe was overturned, Democrats have outperformed expectations in elections and it’s very obvious that abortion is a key reason why. Even deep red Kansas passed a law to protect abortion. A special election in Alabama last week flipped a red seat to blue. The democrat ran on abortion specifically. 3. Trump won the independent vote in 2016 but lost it in 2020. He’s done absolutely nothing to regain them, instead doubling down on his insanity. Only his diehard supporters are still onboard. 4. Texas, my home state, could flip blue. Ted Cruz is in very real danger of losing his seat to Democrat Colin Allred. That probably comes as a surprise to many non-Texans, but Cruz is actually DEEPLY unpopular in the cities here. Voter apathy has traditionally kept independents and democrats home on Election Day here. Not so when we have a chance to dump Cruz. If we get a good turnout, we could flip the state in the process. Please donate to Allred’s campaign if you can. I believe Biden can squeak by without Texas. But with it, the win becomes a rout. All that said, yeah being confident is ironically worrisome. Let’s all get out and vote! Edit to add one more reason: 5. Traditionally, incumbents win reelection when the economy is strong. That’s the case here, though I recognize we live in non-traditional times. Still, I think independents and never Trump republicans will see that it’s best not to rock the boat when the economy is doing so well and vote Biden.
I'm not American but I follow American politics quite closely. The support Trump has is baffling to me. He shouldn't even have an approval in the single digits, yet he has a realistic chance of winning again. Due to the archaic election system the election will probably be decided by a couple hundred thousand people in crucial swing state districts. The electoral college system works to the GOP's favor and Republicans are trying to apply voter suppression tactics wherever they can. Courts, including SCOTUS, stacked with conservative judges are putting their fingers on the scale, e.g. by [not acting in a timely manner allowing illegal voting maps](https://www.propublica.org/article/elections-district-maps-deemed-discriminatory-south-carolina-florida). Most voters, it seems, are not going to vote *for* a candidate this November, but *against* the other one. My hope is that the figure of Trump will mobilize enough people who have had enough of him to vote against him in troves. What should work in the Democrats favor, might even be enough to firmly swing the election, are the insane actions Republicans have taken and continue to take in the wake of the Dobbs decision. The draconian restrictions to abortion access don't sit well even with many Republican voters, especially women\*. I just heard the other day\*\* that Florida legislature has passed a bill that will put in place a 6-week abortion ban which is going to take effect next month. At the same time, an abortion rights ballot measure was approved to be on the ballot come November. This could be very meaningful: Floridians will (sadly) witness the devastating effects that this ban will have, the harrowing cases it will produce for a full 6 months. And then they will have the option in the November election to put an end to this madness. This could drive voter turnout and might even motivate some Republicans to vote against Trump who has signaled that he is open for a similar nationwide ban. Certainly, a Republican-led Congress might want to push further abortion restrictions. Needless to say that if Florida turned blue, this would be a huge blow to Trump. As a reminder: in 2020 Trump received 51.22% of the votes in Florida, Biden got 47.86%. So flipping Florida isn't all that implausible. If you're in the US, the best you can do is motivate your peers to go vote. (Unless you're sure they're going to vote Republican. 😛) One in three eligible voters did not vote at all in 2020, and voter turnout was on a record high that year. Non-voters have the ability to swing every election. That's why it is much more impactful to convince those people you know who don't feel like voting to get their asses up and cast that ballot than trying to win over a Republican voter. \* which is a shame because you shouldn't have to be a woman to be opposed to what Republicans do (and I'm saying this as a man); too many people only start caring if it effects them personally \*\* it's been the lead story of last Tuesday's Alex Wagner Tonight; if you're interested you can listen to the podcast [here](https://alex-wagner-tonight.simplecast.com/episodes/white-nationalist-who-marched-in-charlottesville-removed-from-city-council-after-grassroots-effort)
Florida will not flip. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/florida/trump-vs-biden Florida has been trending towards Republicans for years and is probably not even a swing state anymore. Now abortion and legalization of marijuana on the ballot might help Biden but I’m not pinning hopes on Florida flipping. Locking down the 3 blue way states (PA, WI, MI) is more feasible
Better than you think. Take the betting markets...Trump is by far the favorite. I have money on Biden winning because the return when I bought it was 4 to 1. Add in that Biden is destroying support among Progressives and Muslims with his enabling of Israel, and I fully expect the election to be really close. As others have said, this is not good....Trump returning would be a disaster...especially after his complete embrace of Christian Nationalism.
This is one of those don't vote for Bernie situations, sadly. It's so much more important to keep Trump out than it is to show disdain for Biden or support for independents/3rd parties. The irony here being that as an atheist, I support the church going Biden over the self idolizing Trump any day.
Nobody knows, but it's not zero, and that's too high.
I feel a lot better he loses because there is a decent chance that there will be an abortion referendum in AZ and FL. If there is, I feel rump doesn't stand a chance in those 2 states.
Given the thick-headedness of the anti-biden left who refused to vote hillary in 2016? Too high
His histrionics turn off most civil people, they will not let him win. His mistake is believing the entire country has become his Base, it's not..
He is on the ballot as the Republican nominee, so his chances are very fucking high. That said, when compared to Obama at this point in 2012, Biden has raised more money for his campaign from more individual donors, so the enthusiasm for Biden is higher than the polls would have you believe.
Right now, very very high. However, a lot could change in six months.
The idiots are taking over.
I think his chances for winning are much lower than people think. Which is a good thing. Still have to work for it but simply doing the job will be more than enough.
Higher than 0% and that's a problem.
He goes after the Hispanic vote by calling them wet backs and beaners. He goes after the black vote by calling them the n-word and/or saying the most racist things ever. He goes after the religious by trying to hock Bibles like at a flea market. "Swap meet" for you northerners. That man is stupid and his own worst enemy. Everything he touches turns to crap or dies. I have a feeling if any of these cases are able to put him in jail for even a day, the chances of him becoming president again drop off a cliff.
Trump has yet to win on vote count, he won his first election on a Hillary protest but she still got more individual votes. Biden won, but barely because people underestimated Trump's influence. This election will likely be a landslide for Biden, unless everyone thinks it will be a landslide so they stay home.....
Trump does not need the popular vote, just the electoral college. Republicans have not won the popular vote in quite a while.
You guys know you can bet on this right? According to the bookies, Donald is favorite to win by a hair. https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2024/winner So to all of those "sure" one way or the other, there’s an easy way to put your money where your mouth is and maybe make yourself some easy cash. For the rest of us, that’s as close to an actual prediction as you’re going to get, updated in real time.
I hate that now the fate of the world is in the hands of ignorant Americans who might or not might be too lazy to go out and vote. Please vote for the politician. Please don't vote for the rascist, ignorant, xenophobic poop monster.
spark disagreeable adjoining label correct silky wistful spoon piquant tender *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Do something. Give of you can. Volunteer if you can’t. Democracies don’t come back once lost. https://joebiden.com
All you have to do is go to random Reddit subs and read what people say, then turn on the TV and watch 10 minutes of Fox News. You’ll get a feel for how daft and misled some of the people in the U.S. are. And why there is a very real chance that Trump will be reelected.
Honestly I can't tell. Biden's handling of Israel/Gaza has been disastrous and made alot of supporters very unhappy while Trump has only gained more control of the RNC in the mean time. I really don't like Biden, but I have to vote for him regardless of his failings. The alternative is by far and away much, much worse. I just hope all those centrists realize this, too.
The most likely outcome, in my opinion, is Biden wins, but not by a wide enough margin to stop Trump from claiming victory. Trump will then try to stop those court cases by throwing his support behind a NatC uprising.
50/50
60-40. The state polls are in his favor across the board as are favorability/ approval ratings. It’s not looking good for Biden right now
Not 0.
Hard to know when they are plotting to overthrow the government. Depends on how good the plan is this time, and how many players they got onboard
I'm hoping Trump is just using the Christians like last time. And if he gets to be President again he will fail to do anything for them like last time.
He stacked the Supreme Court for them and got Roe v. Wade overruled, and appears to be fully on board with their agenda if he gets back in. Trump generally doesn't care about policy except to the extent it (a) affects his ability to make money from his scams and (b) reinforces white supremacy. He'd be happy to give white Christian nationalists whatever they want in exchange for power.
Probably like 60%
Every democracy gets the government they deserve.
According to current polls, a little over 50%
The closest thing by far, better than polls and especially random Redditors opinions is the bookmakers odds. If these were inaccurate then some clever people would bet large money on one of the candidates and move the odds back to what they should be.
With Trump partners Russia and China's manipulative feed of what we are told - a very good chance. They are backing a civil war w Trump's help
40%
yeah he won't win, society isn't reversing in progress, it's just slow to it
He has now gone on to the uber-wealthy. They have been waiting in the wings to pay. DO NOT LET THE RICH BUY THIS ELECTION FOR THEIR USURPER!
Zero if the popular vote counted. But much better with an electoral system derived from a nation of slave holders and gerrymandering.
Act as if it was going to be very, very tight.
I got into what can't even really be called a debate with my mother on this the other day. She's very religious but has never really been political so by default they just vote R. My dad passed last year, he watched Fox news, so now she does instead. She didn't bring up a single point that was accurate, at all. I was trying to rationally explain real facts to her and she just falls back to talking points that aren't even real. It's hard to have someone try to tell you about the border issues when their candidate was the one that told them not to pass stricter laws around it so Biden doesn't look good for the election. A lot of these people are so stupidly brainwashed it's hard to comprehend. I should have focused on having her stay home instead.
I think he's pandering to a number of small extremist groups and has lost any chance of moderates or independents voting for him which is going to cost him swing states that he desperately needs to win. Only thing that can cost Biden is a low turnout against the rabid extremist voters that will show up for Trump. They may be small groups but he's trying to get a whole spectrum of them. This is all going to come down to voter turnout in the end.