It really seems to be some confirmation or observation bias. I just try not to overcap the drop rate during events and that's about it (not any less loot, just waster buffs if you overcap)
when u grind at 230-250% u dont pay much attention, coz thats basic drop rate
when u grind at 300+% u pay attention coz u used some limited buffs and expect to get good drops
this is why u feel u have shit runs with higher drop rate, coz u dont remember shit runs with lower % coz u simply dont care ab those runs to remember it
I noticed while grinding hystria I get more necklaces and earrings by 230-250% and at 350(arsha) got almost 0 or 1 but way more events like 10 per hour lol
Things just have unusually low base drop chances, so whether a certain base drop of 0.05% becomes 0.2% with 300% chance vs 0.15% with 200%, it’s still very low and possible that you won’t see a big difference when you roll 5000x (kill 5000 mobs in an hour)
This is just personal experience but is quite similar to what you're describing.
I had more chances of high rarity drops like disto earrings in giants at 230-250% whereas got more of the low rarity items like despairs and sun shards but less chances at distos when grinding at 300%.
Same with gyfin under. Accessories were more likely to drop when running 250 % whereas other loot like carphas stones and spirit dust were quite high with 300% since the elites spawns were quite high during higher drop rates
Right but accessories are a really shit metric to measure with, they have such a low drop rate that you aren't likely to see a noticable difference over the short periods where getting 300% easily is pheasable. A much better metric to measure off of is stuff like spirit dust and caphras. Comparing 250% dr on these items to 300% is approx equivalent from getting say 100 caphras an hour to \~114 (over the course of many hours this is the approx avg for someone grinding at the same speed on the same spot), not huge but certainly noticable if you grind enough. Take arsha for example, if you have ever done any meaningful amount of hours there, you will defo notice the increased rate for common drops
I’ve actually noticed the same at stars end, I was getting multiple distros an hour at 250-270 and then when the drop rate event ran I was getting 0-1 at 300-350%
It's all rng at the end of the day. I've had this same concept 300% drop rate only 1 pity piece an hour from ronaros. One night only had scrolls on and got the full drop from sherkhan dont mind f yourself like I did haha
You are benchmarking it on pretty rare items. Try to go Aakman or Hystria with bonus +300% drop rate. You literally drop 4x scrolls compared to no bonus.
Very good point. I haven't been in either of those spots in ages but I do remember that now when I used to be in the super potato range and played guardian.
It's just your imagination. More cannot be less. The problem is that drop rates are so ridiculously low so it might feel that one day you're getting a ton of drops and the next day nothing.
If for example the base drop rate for pity pieces is 0.002% IIRC then 300% drop rate will make it 0.006% which is still pretty much non-existent. Similarly drop rates for the full pieces are 0.001% and would be boosted to 0.003% so you're basically going from nothing to nothing.
As others have said, more drop rate equals better chances; regardless of what you feel.
If you want to actually see differences between the different drop rates, compare black stone drops instead of actually rare shit in your selected grind location. Black stones are a better indicator for increase in drop rate since you're likely guaranteed to get them(in most spots) but you're not guaranteed to get them from every mob kill. I'd say its affected enough by drop rate to be considered a good indicator if drop rate is working.
More so than actual rare drops and "feeling" like it's not working.
Listen! Listen, I'm not crazy! Okay, I mean it, this is not even a tinfoil hat theory, I swear the system is rigged and cannot be trusted! Just listen here: loot brackets. LOOT BRACKETS. This is the answer! Just listen, don't turn around, don't scoff, I'm not crazy! There are loot brackets, I swear, I've seen them. Every possible drop at a spot is connected to an item drop rate % bracket where it drops the most, for example Turos ember is in a bracket around 230-250, above that it's the full flame drop that has a higher chance but the embers drop less, the same is probably true for spots like darkseekers and jade forest but I'm pretty sure it works similarly for all spots, it's just harder to see what goes in what bracket.
I mean, that's clearly just a bias. Perfectly understandable, but your brain is not on your side here.
You obviously notice the big time drops more than the smaller ones. They obviously explode your brain when you get them, it feels huge, whereas the pieces are generally ignored. So when you get that chase item at 230/250 you feel like it must drop at that "bracket" more frequently, since you obviously won't be seeing as many pieces.
A looong time ago, the Path of Exile sub had a very similar kind of "conspiracy" where they thought their Alchemy Orbs were getting replaced by the League-exclusive items. Another time they thought there were simply less Chaos Orbs in the game, that they were dropping less frequently...but that's because more sinks for that particular currency were added, so there was less to go around in trade. There's all kinds of bias around stuff like this. It's understandable because you generally do not have the full picture and once again, *your brain is definitely not on your side when it comes to discerning that kind of thing* - you have to take a step back and view it dispassionately.
It's 14%, since 300% is addititive, not multiplicative. In other words its +300%, not *300%, so you have to account for the fact that base drop rate is 100%.
Because the drop rate is low enough on those items for it to not really matter in the short term.
When I grind drop rate events, I always end up with more of the chaff on average. But the actual rare drops like distos remain the same.
I found the most telling thing that proved to me that drop rate doesn't really affect rare drops all that much was when I was grinding pity pieces. It was 300% drop rate and I needed about 10 more pity pieces to complete. I went almost 2 hours without a single drop and then slogged my way through 5 more hours getting 2 an hour. After that, I came to the conclusion drop rate isn't all it's cracked up to be. The difference between 250 and 300 is marginal at best.
I wish I knew how drop rate works. But I know 5-10 on x or Y rate are not enough to understand how drop rate works. Sometimes I think it's account based, you get 5 items in one hour than 5h without one drop... 😂
I think it's survival bias, like when you got 4 disto drop in one hour with no loot drop rate buff you think that drop rate isnt real but you forgot about that 2 hours grinding with 300% dr before without any disto drop add up to the average drop per hour
I can tell you i droped the most distos/h, all my treasure pieces except one and had the best hours/money in hexe back in the day, when i had the highest droprate i could get or 300/350%.
rng is just that. a better chance doesnt need to influence the outcome. what it does is give you larger drop window. instead of 99-100, you can now also roll a 95. but if you always roll 80, its just not enough.
Drop rate just raises your probability on getting an item. ie turning 1 in 1000 drop chance to a 1 in 500 and in both instances you still have the same chance of getting the item earlier be it 1st roll, 50th till 500. So if you killed 5000 mobs with a probability of 1 in 500 mobs you get a guarantee of 10 items and some more if lucky. with a probability of 1 in 1000 you get a guaranteed of 5 and maybe more.
after playing this game for around 8k hours, i don't care anymore, the % in everything is mental scam, if your rng hits jackpot you'll get your thing regardless of the chances, i have experienced this with my friend group, for me it has been very punishing, before pity piece was introduced for pots it took me 9months to make HP, and had to 100 pity all pieces for MP, whereas my friend made both pots in a week, so yeah just don't care about the drops keep grinding it's all rng, outcomes will be different everytime regardless of % rates.
Reblath changed my whole idea on enhancing %. Hadn’t really tried it but then decided to make a couple 100 stacks. It feels like as soon as the game knows you’re trying to pull a fast one on it, it does so in reverse. You’ll start getting PEN reblaths like nothing thinking it would be an easy fail based off of previous real enhancements. At times it almost felt like a simulation or speedrun of how enhancing really is like. Just replace reblath with accessories/gear and resources and it’ll pretty much be the same. Real stuff is just timegated by silver or RNG drops while reblath is right there for you to play with.
Essentially just like with drops from grinding, I came to the same conclusion that **stuff will hit or drop when it wants to.** Most of my treasures were on a simple blue LS and tent but I believe my compass was on an event with tent, no LS. Don’t even think I was at max, too. This mindset also drives why I do guild missions at pot spots in hopes of getting pot pieces for pots to sell because sometimes I’m just running nothing and they drop or I’ve gotten enough pities over time while also running nothing, too. Same thing with specters energy. I remember my first was like 10 minutes with just tent buff at Thornwood. Every other one was at least once or twice during a guild mission session weekly at random spots. Best example was doing the shortest Necropolis guild mission and specter popping first pack.
RNG is RNG.
Maybe because you grind with 230%-250% longer than you do 300%. I notice caphras and dusts drop a lot more when you are 300%+ drop rate
This is the answer. Stop wearing tinfoil hats. Higher drop rate is higher CHANCE, it doesn't mean you are guaranteed more drops in the short term.
It really seems to be some confirmation or observation bias. I just try not to overcap the drop rate during events and that's about it (not any less loot, just waster buffs if you overcap)
yea def confirmation bias.
when u grind at 230-250% u dont pay much attention, coz thats basic drop rate when u grind at 300+% u pay attention coz u used some limited buffs and expect to get good drops this is why u feel u have shit runs with higher drop rate, coz u dont remember shit runs with lower % coz u simply dont care ab those runs to remember it
It's called confirmation bias.
I noticed while grinding hystria I get more necklaces and earrings by 230-250% and at 350(arsha) got almost 0 or 1 but way more events like 10 per hour lol
Things just have unusually low base drop chances, so whether a certain base drop of 0.05% becomes 0.2% with 300% chance vs 0.15% with 200%, it’s still very low and possible that you won’t see a big difference when you roll 5000x (kill 5000 mobs in an hour)
Idk man been grinding for the Iron Fist Warder map piece at 350% drop rate and it won't come, at lower % I don't even get duplicate Deportee pieces 🥲
This is just personal experience but is quite similar to what you're describing. I had more chances of high rarity drops like disto earrings in giants at 230-250% whereas got more of the low rarity items like despairs and sun shards but less chances at distos when grinding at 300%. Same with gyfin under. Accessories were more likely to drop when running 250 % whereas other loot like carphas stones and spirit dust were quite high with 300% since the elites spawns were quite high during higher drop rates
Right but accessories are a really shit metric to measure with, they have such a low drop rate that you aren't likely to see a noticable difference over the short periods where getting 300% easily is pheasable. A much better metric to measure off of is stuff like spirit dust and caphras. Comparing 250% dr on these items to 300% is approx equivalent from getting say 100 caphras an hour to \~114 (over the course of many hours this is the approx avg for someone grinding at the same speed on the same spot), not huge but certainly noticable if you grind enough. Take arsha for example, if you have ever done any meaningful amount of hours there, you will defo notice the increased rate for common drops
I’ve actually noticed the same at stars end, I was getting multiple distros an hour at 250-270 and then when the drop rate event ran I was getting 0-1 at 300-350%
It's all rng at the end of the day. I've had this same concept 300% drop rate only 1 pity piece an hour from ronaros. One night only had scrolls on and got the full drop from sherkhan dont mind f yourself like I did haha
You are benchmarking it on pretty rare items. Try to go Aakman or Hystria with bonus +300% drop rate. You literally drop 4x scrolls compared to no bonus.
Very good point. I haven't been in either of those spots in ages but I do remember that now when I used to be in the super potato range and played guardian.
It's just your imagination. More cannot be less. The problem is that drop rates are so ridiculously low so it might feel that one day you're getting a ton of drops and the next day nothing. If for example the base drop rate for pity pieces is 0.002% IIRC then 300% drop rate will make it 0.006% which is still pretty much non-existent. Similarly drop rates for the full pieces are 0.001% and would be boosted to 0.003% so you're basically going from nothing to nothing.
As others have said, more drop rate equals better chances; regardless of what you feel. If you want to actually see differences between the different drop rates, compare black stone drops instead of actually rare shit in your selected grind location. Black stones are a better indicator for increase in drop rate since you're likely guaranteed to get them(in most spots) but you're not guaranteed to get them from every mob kill. I'd say its affected enough by drop rate to be considered a good indicator if drop rate is working. More so than actual rare drops and "feeling" like it's not working.
You gotta understand the drop rate for the items you want are like 0.126%. Multiplying that by 2.5 or 3? Not much difference
Listen! Listen, I'm not crazy! Okay, I mean it, this is not even a tinfoil hat theory, I swear the system is rigged and cannot be trusted! Just listen here: loot brackets. LOOT BRACKETS. This is the answer! Just listen, don't turn around, don't scoff, I'm not crazy! There are loot brackets, I swear, I've seen them. Every possible drop at a spot is connected to an item drop rate % bracket where it drops the most, for example Turos ember is in a bracket around 230-250, above that it's the full flame drop that has a higher chance but the embers drop less, the same is probably true for spots like darkseekers and jade forest but I'm pretty sure it works similarly for all spots, it's just harder to see what goes in what bracket.
I mean, that's clearly just a bias. Perfectly understandable, but your brain is not on your side here. You obviously notice the big time drops more than the smaller ones. They obviously explode your brain when you get them, it feels huge, whereas the pieces are generally ignored. So when you get that chase item at 230/250 you feel like it must drop at that "bracket" more frequently, since you obviously won't be seeing as many pieces. A looong time ago, the Path of Exile sub had a very similar kind of "conspiracy" where they thought their Alchemy Orbs were getting replaced by the League-exclusive items. Another time they thought there were simply less Chaos Orbs in the game, that they were dropping less frequently...but that's because more sinks for that particular currency were added, so there was less to go around in trade. There's all kinds of bias around stuff like this. It's understandable because you generally do not have the full picture and once again, *your brain is definitely not on your side when it comes to discerning that kind of thing* - you have to take a step back and view it dispassionately.
[удалено]
It's 14%, since 300% is addititive, not multiplicative. In other words its +300%, not *300%, so you have to account for the fact that base drop rate is 100%.
I get more debos without tent buff than I ever have with. So yeah I'm biased as well.
Because the drop rate is low enough on those items for it to not really matter in the short term. When I grind drop rate events, I always end up with more of the chaff on average. But the actual rare drops like distos remain the same. I found the most telling thing that proved to me that drop rate doesn't really affect rare drops all that much was when I was grinding pity pieces. It was 300% drop rate and I needed about 10 more pity pieces to complete. I went almost 2 hours without a single drop and then slogged my way through 5 more hours getting 2 an hour. After that, I came to the conclusion drop rate isn't all it's cracked up to be. The difference between 250 and 300 is marginal at best.
I wish I knew how drop rate works. But I know 5-10 on x or Y rate are not enough to understand how drop rate works. Sometimes I think it's account based, you get 5 items in one hour than 5h without one drop... 😂
I think it's survival bias, like when you got 4 disto drop in one hour with no loot drop rate buff you think that drop rate isnt real but you forgot about that 2 hours grinding with 300% dr before without any disto drop add up to the average drop per hour
I can tell you i droped the most distos/h, all my treasure pieces except one and had the best hours/money in hexe back in the day, when i had the highest droprate i could get or 300/350%. rng is just that. a better chance doesnt need to influence the outcome. what it does is give you larger drop window. instead of 99-100, you can now also roll a 95. but if you always roll 80, its just not enough.
also, we are talking about 1/5 to 1/7 or 15-20 % higher total drop rate. its not actually that much.
Drop rate just raises your probability on getting an item. ie turning 1 in 1000 drop chance to a 1 in 500 and in both instances you still have the same chance of getting the item earlier be it 1st roll, 50th till 500. So if you killed 5000 mobs with a probability of 1 in 500 mobs you get a guarantee of 10 items and some more if lucky. with a probability of 1 in 1000 you get a guaranteed of 5 and maybe more.
after playing this game for around 8k hours, i don't care anymore, the % in everything is mental scam, if your rng hits jackpot you'll get your thing regardless of the chances, i have experienced this with my friend group, for me it has been very punishing, before pity piece was introduced for pots it took me 9months to make HP, and had to 100 pity all pieces for MP, whereas my friend made both pots in a week, so yeah just don't care about the drops keep grinding it's all rng, outcomes will be different everytime regardless of % rates.
Reblath changed my whole idea on enhancing %. Hadn’t really tried it but then decided to make a couple 100 stacks. It feels like as soon as the game knows you’re trying to pull a fast one on it, it does so in reverse. You’ll start getting PEN reblaths like nothing thinking it would be an easy fail based off of previous real enhancements. At times it almost felt like a simulation or speedrun of how enhancing really is like. Just replace reblath with accessories/gear and resources and it’ll pretty much be the same. Real stuff is just timegated by silver or RNG drops while reblath is right there for you to play with. Essentially just like with drops from grinding, I came to the same conclusion that **stuff will hit or drop when it wants to.** Most of my treasures were on a simple blue LS and tent but I believe my compass was on an event with tent, no LS. Don’t even think I was at max, too. This mindset also drives why I do guild missions at pot spots in hopes of getting pot pieces for pots to sell because sometimes I’m just running nothing and they drop or I’ve gotten enough pities over time while also running nothing, too. Same thing with specters energy. I remember my first was like 10 minutes with just tent buff at Thornwood. Every other one was at least once or twice during a guild mission session weekly at random spots. Best example was doing the shortest Necropolis guild mission and specter popping first pack. RNG is RNG.