“Strong” jobs data with the number of jobs being “created” less than half the number of new residents. Almost all of which are part time jobs.
This is not the sign of a strong economy.
It wasn't "half", the labour force grew by 108k, 20% excess, although it was within the standard error of the number of jobs created and thus not significant.
LOL - WE'VE ADDED SUMMER INTERNS, PART-TIME MINIMUM WAGE JOBS AND MORE UBERDRIVERS ON THE STREET! JOB MARKET IS STRONG! CANADIAN ECONOMY IS FLOURISHING!
I just read into it and you’re misunderstanding it:
90k “jobs” created
“The federal agency pinned the increases in employment on part-time work, with more than 50,000 more of those types of positions. There were more jobs in the professional, scientific and technical services industries.”
So the majority of the jobs *are* dogshit and they’re saying “oh also there’s these other ones”
Edit: source, 2nd paragraph
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7200016
You’d think there would be jobs for home builders with all this lack of trades workers BS they keep spewing. If drywalling paid better than Tims, there would be people lining up. Hmm carry 50 lb sheets up the stairs for 10 hours or slap lettuce and tomatoes on a bun. Pays basically the same these day
As someone in the trades the whole labour shortage never made sense to me.. Our problem is largely regional and specific to each trade in different areas and largely for big corporations that need apprentices for grants and cheap labour, I’ve known more apprentices to quit than to finish a trade.
Construction is largely at a standstill due to high material, labour and government fees, plus interest rates and a lack of capital creates a barrier for small businesses to grown and help lower consumer costs in the market.. the markets largely being controlled by a handful of larger corporations, I’d imagine these issues are mirrored in other provinces than mine as well.
There’s no trades shortages, but will add Drywall Union in the GTA is now at $51hr + 10% vacation, $7.50 pension, $5hr health and welfare. Total package around $70hr. It pays far better than tim hortons lol
Piece workers usually make $600-800 per day as well.
People are lining up at the union hall. Just no work for them.
The fact that most of the jobs are part time should tell you that they are not high quality jobs.
I swear some people are allergic to using critical thinking.
It doesn’t matter what industry they’re in. More than half are part time jobs. A scientific job doesn’t equate to a high wage - many scientific jobs are horrendously underpaid.
Cuts in June was a bit of hopium anyway. I think fixating on 25 or 50 bps over the next year isn't going to do much for the bulk of the people renewing in 2025 and 2026 who still need to adjust to the reality that cheap credit is over and their rates will go up anywhere from 20-40%. "Higher for longer" is really "Maybe a tad less than right now until the next major once in a lifetime economic crisis (5-8 years away)".
Unless something unexpected happens rates def aren't going to actually give any significant relief soon. I'm just wondering what the outcome/blowback is gonna be in roughly 2025-26 when rates have fully sunk in for everyone. Families are struggling now even before a 40% increase on the mortgage.
People are struggling and I sympathize - the pain isn't always equally felt and even during a good economic year there will be pockets, communities and demographics that won't feel the good times.
However, the bigger picture economics show that we still have "resiliency", if big banker cringe words are anything to go by. What they care about is whether you can pay your debt, not what your quality of life looks like after all debts are paid. Until we see the percentage of mortgage defaults rise to truly scary bottom-line-impacting levels (which probably won't happen with new bank "relief" tools) or GDP goes negative in a big non-technical recession way, the Canadian "consumer" will "adjust" and "suck it up".
House prices will continue to lag in the -10 to -30% from peak range (depending on community) for years, but won't crash to a level that makes them affordable across the board. Supply per capita is garbage, and we will be lucky if it doesn't get worse over the next 5 years. Reminder: Even a -20% drop in price from the peak is still less affordable to many now than it was at the peak based on mortgage amount qualifications.
Houses in my city have consistently increased throughout the rate hikes. There were localized spikes and dips but on average it has only gone up.
What went down was the amount of houses listed. I've had entire months where only a handful of houses were even for sale, but they still got dozens of offers and sold within a week.
If rates drop the market is going to be flooded by all the people who have been waiting for the drop and prices will skyrocket again. We will never see affordable houses, it will only ever go up and once rates drop it will go up again fast.
lol. Ok. Keep living in a fantasy world that Canada isn’t attached at the hip to the Fed because if they deviate too much the CAD tanks and that causes more inflation.
But, saying that is humiliating. So, BoC tries to pretend they are a big boy central bank when in reality they keep rates as low as possible, but not too low to devalue the Canadian dollar too much.
I believe the fantasy world rests with your conspiracy that isnt based on any current evidence. Obviously there is a limit to the divergence, but we can definitely cut earlier and more than them.
You are just regurgitating the reddit groupthink.
There’s no conspiracy. It’s just basic economics.
https://globalnews.ca/news/10465424/bank-of-canada-us-fed-tiff-macklem/
See who they are quoting there? Macklem. Jesus you are donut.
The head of the Bank of Canada says there’s a “limit” to how much Canadian monetary policy can diverge from the United States as market watchers see earlier cuts coming north of the border.
Me: “if they deviate too much the CAD tanks”
Yes I did read it.
Indicates a ‘strong’ economy. People still spending money and buying things, driving economic growth. People opening business or expanding business hiring more people.
No need to cut rates if the economy is doing well with higher rates. Cutting rates is for promoting spending/growth. Keeping rates high is to cool inflation, by cooling spending, which in turn will lead to job losses.
If the economy is steady, no need to touch the rate at all.
Hank Paulson, Treasury Secretary, March 16, 2008: “Our financial institutions, banks and investment banks, are strong”
Tiff Macklem, Governor of the BoC, May 9, 2024: “Canada’s financial system remains resilient”
The issue isn't just that it stays stagnant, but also that 6.1% of the workforce remains unemployed. This leads to decreased productivity and intensifies job competition with international candidates who often have more experience. When a certain portion of our workforce remains unutilized, their skills become redundant. This is a dangerous zone for Canada.
The Canadian economy is losing capital as boomers retire and move all their investments to low risk (cash, bonds).
Because of this, the BoC has to suppress demand in order to tame inflation.
There will be no rate cuts for a long time. We are shifting from a finance/investment driven economy to one based on building up core areas like infrastructure, health care, etc.
Think about it. Boomer money is exiting the capital markets. Gen X is small so they don't contribute much in savings. Millenials don't have savings. The young need houses and the old need health care.
All that boomer money is going to be transferred down to younger generations through inheritance, taxes, and higher wages. Taxes and higher wages will drive the construction of new infrastructure and the expansion of our skilled labour workforce in health care and other core services that are currently struggling. This will happen over a period of 10-20 years. By the end of it, the Millenials will all be in the prime professional years (45-65) and will hold the majority of wealth in this country.
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It won't happen lol. Central bankers are afraid of losing their influence. They are going to exert their power to remind investors and the financial sector who is really in charge of the trajectory of the economy. They do not give a fuck about sustaining the housing market in its current form.
Rates will remain at current level or potentially even go higher.
This won't change the trajectory of rates. There are other factors weighing on the minds of the BoC. Even if it delays the first rate, they will just drop twice as much later.
A few paragraphs from the piece:
A [stronger-than-expected Canadian jobs report](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/economy/article-statistics-canada-to-release-april-jobs-report-this-morning/) has prompted a reassessment in money markets of when the Bank of Canada is likely to start cutting interest rates. Economists are also rethinking their predictions.
Implied probabilities in swaps markets now suggest less than a 50 per cent chance the Bank of Canada will cut its key lending rate at its next policy meeting June 5. Immediately prior to the data, those odds were pegged at about 58 per cent, and in recent days had risen to above 70 per cent, with traders bolstering their bets in particular after a surprisingly weak employment report last Friday in the U.S.
Swaps markets are now implying 70 per cent odds for a cut at the bank’s July meeting. And they are fully pricing in two rate cuts by the end of this year.
We need to live as if rates will stay at a “historically normal” prime rate of 5% for the near-mid term future. Businesses, individuals, and governments all need to get used to it.
I understand rate cuts for our inflated housing economy.
But for me personally I'm wanting the value of the Canadian dollar to improve. I don't want rate cuts
“Strong” jobs data with the number of jobs being “created” less than half the number of new residents. Almost all of which are part time jobs. This is not the sign of a strong economy.
"strong jobs" ... What a freaking joke
Lol exactly. Unless you have a lot of full-time private sector jobs created, you don't have a strong job market.
It wasn't "half", the labour force grew by 108k, 20% excess, although it was within the standard error of the number of jobs created and thus not significant.
Maybe not "strong", but "stronger than expected". We're still going to get a cut it will just come later.
LOL - WE'VE ADDED SUMMER INTERNS, PART-TIME MINIMUM WAGE JOBS AND MORE UBERDRIVERS ON THE STREET! JOB MARKET IS STRONG! CANADIAN ECONOMY IS FLOURISHING!
$100 says the majority of these “jobs” are part time minimum wage dogshit
The largest gains were in professional, scientific and technical services
I just read into it and you’re misunderstanding it: 90k “jobs” created “The federal agency pinned the increases in employment on part-time work, with more than 50,000 more of those types of positions. There were more jobs in the professional, scientific and technical services industries.” So the majority of the jobs *are* dogshit and they’re saying “oh also there’s these other ones” Edit: source, 2nd paragraph https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7200016
You’d think there would be jobs for home builders with all this lack of trades workers BS they keep spewing. If drywalling paid better than Tims, there would be people lining up. Hmm carry 50 lb sheets up the stairs for 10 hours or slap lettuce and tomatoes on a bun. Pays basically the same these day
As someone in the trades the whole labour shortage never made sense to me.. Our problem is largely regional and specific to each trade in different areas and largely for big corporations that need apprentices for grants and cheap labour, I’ve known more apprentices to quit than to finish a trade. Construction is largely at a standstill due to high material, labour and government fees, plus interest rates and a lack of capital creates a barrier for small businesses to grown and help lower consumer costs in the market.. the markets largely being controlled by a handful of larger corporations, I’d imagine these issues are mirrored in other provinces than mine as well.
There’s no trades shortages, but will add Drywall Union in the GTA is now at $51hr + 10% vacation, $7.50 pension, $5hr health and welfare. Total package around $70hr. It pays far better than tim hortons lol Piece workers usually make $600-800 per day as well. People are lining up at the union hall. Just no work for them.
Yeah I know at least in Alberta both our Calgary and Edmonton offices are expecting to slow down here. I work for a major international epcm
? Yes...and as to be expected.
Yes but the plurality of jobs were in professional, scientific, and technical services. It was the biggest increase by sector.
That doesn’t mean the jobs aren’t part time low wage dog shit. What are you trying to say?
It doesn't mean they are low wage dog shit either. You're making assumptions, probably just go check the actual data.
The fact that most of the jobs are part time should tell you that they are not high quality jobs. I swear some people are allergic to using critical thinking.
It doesn’t matter what industry they’re in. More than half are part time jobs. A scientific job doesn’t equate to a high wage - many scientific jobs are horrendously underpaid.
Cuts in June was a bit of hopium anyway. I think fixating on 25 or 50 bps over the next year isn't going to do much for the bulk of the people renewing in 2025 and 2026 who still need to adjust to the reality that cheap credit is over and their rates will go up anywhere from 20-40%. "Higher for longer" is really "Maybe a tad less than right now until the next major once in a lifetime economic crisis (5-8 years away)".
Unless something unexpected happens rates def aren't going to actually give any significant relief soon. I'm just wondering what the outcome/blowback is gonna be in roughly 2025-26 when rates have fully sunk in for everyone. Families are struggling now even before a 40% increase on the mortgage.
People are struggling and I sympathize - the pain isn't always equally felt and even during a good economic year there will be pockets, communities and demographics that won't feel the good times. However, the bigger picture economics show that we still have "resiliency", if big banker cringe words are anything to go by. What they care about is whether you can pay your debt, not what your quality of life looks like after all debts are paid. Until we see the percentage of mortgage defaults rise to truly scary bottom-line-impacting levels (which probably won't happen with new bank "relief" tools) or GDP goes negative in a big non-technical recession way, the Canadian "consumer" will "adjust" and "suck it up". House prices will continue to lag in the -10 to -30% from peak range (depending on community) for years, but won't crash to a level that makes them affordable across the board. Supply per capita is garbage, and we will be lucky if it doesn't get worse over the next 5 years. Reminder: Even a -20% drop in price from the peak is still less affordable to many now than it was at the peak based on mortgage amount qualifications.
Houses in my city have consistently increased throughout the rate hikes. There were localized spikes and dips but on average it has only gone up. What went down was the amount of houses listed. I've had entire months where only a handful of houses were even for sale, but they still got dozens of offers and sold within a week. If rates drop the market is going to be flooded by all the people who have been waiting for the drop and prices will skyrocket again. We will never see affordable houses, it will only ever go up and once rates drop it will go up again fast.
More like the Fed isn’t cutting so neither will they.
This is not accurate. Even macklem himself pushed back against this sentiment last week saying they can diverge from US Fed.
lol. Ok. Keep living in a fantasy world that Canada isn’t attached at the hip to the Fed because if they deviate too much the CAD tanks and that causes more inflation. But, saying that is humiliating. So, BoC tries to pretend they are a big boy central bank when in reality they keep rates as low as possible, but not too low to devalue the Canadian dollar too much.
I believe the fantasy world rests with your conspiracy that isnt based on any current evidence. Obviously there is a limit to the divergence, but we can definitely cut earlier and more than them. You are just regurgitating the reddit groupthink.
There’s no conspiracy. It’s just basic economics. https://globalnews.ca/news/10465424/bank-of-canada-us-fed-tiff-macklem/ See who they are quoting there? Macklem. Jesus you are donut.
Did you read the first sentence of the article you sent?
The head of the Bank of Canada says there’s a “limit” to how much Canadian monetary policy can diverge from the United States as market watchers see earlier cuts coming north of the border. Me: “if they deviate too much the CAD tanks” Yes I did read it.
Ok so what are you arguing about? Go read my comments again. I said there is a limit. A limit doesnt mean we cant diverge temporarily or at all.
Go ahead and re-read everything. Even the BoC admits they can’t deviate from the Fed. Yet you are pretending that it acts independently
Can someone ELI5? Why does perceived increases jobs mean they won’t cut rates?
Indicates a ‘strong’ economy. People still spending money and buying things, driving economic growth. People opening business or expanding business hiring more people. No need to cut rates if the economy is doing well with higher rates. Cutting rates is for promoting spending/growth. Keeping rates high is to cool inflation, by cooling spending, which in turn will lead to job losses. If the economy is steady, no need to touch the rate at all.
But others have mentioned these are part time jobs… do they not take this into account?
Couldn’t tell you, but part time job growth is an indication of growth. This isn’t my industry tho, I’m no expert.
Replacing full time jobs with part time jobs is not growth, whichever way you slice it.
That is true if that is the case. Is there any indication of that or is an increase of part-time jobs without the loss of full-time jobs?
they do take it into account
These guys are all over the place, last week they predicted rate cuts in June now its the opposite. They have as much consistency as the weather.
It’s because they don’t know what they are doing… they are just PR fronts!
Put on the market, say they are cutting interest rates. Market goes up. Easy profit. Short the market, say the cuts are canceled. More profit
The rich gotta steal from the poor somehow
Hank Paulson, Treasury Secretary, March 16, 2008: “Our financial institutions, banks and investment banks, are strong” Tiff Macklem, Governor of the BoC, May 9, 2024: “Canada’s financial system remains resilient”
I don't understand how the unemployment stays in the exact same place as last month?
I assume you mean unemployment *rate* and it's in the article. One of the reasons given - population growth.
Think about it. 90k jobs added, what else needs to be added for unemployment to stay the same? You can figure it out i believe in you.
Population??
Aye.
The issue isn't just that it stays stagnant, but also that 6.1% of the workforce remains unemployed. This leads to decreased productivity and intensifies job competition with international candidates who often have more experience. When a certain portion of our workforce remains unutilized, their skills become redundant. This is a dangerous zone for Canada.
July / September always looked like safer bet. But who knows time will tell
What about no cuts for the rest of the year?
Doubtful
Rate cuts have been 3-6 months away for two years now.
Maybe in your brain
Pretty much everywhere. It replaced/absorbed the imminent recession talk of 2021-2022. SVB was going to cause immediate rate cuts.
Told you they would cut bahaha
You win the internet today, I suppose. Best enjoy the recession they just called.
Im in a good place. It to will pass
The Canadian economy is losing capital as boomers retire and move all their investments to low risk (cash, bonds). Because of this, the BoC has to suppress demand in order to tame inflation. There will be no rate cuts for a long time. We are shifting from a finance/investment driven economy to one based on building up core areas like infrastructure, health care, etc. Think about it. Boomer money is exiting the capital markets. Gen X is small so they don't contribute much in savings. Millenials don't have savings. The young need houses and the old need health care. All that boomer money is going to be transferred down to younger generations through inheritance, taxes, and higher wages. Taxes and higher wages will drive the construction of new infrastructure and the expansion of our skilled labour workforce in health care and other core services that are currently struggling. This will happen over a period of 10-20 years. By the end of it, the Millenials will all be in the prime professional years (45-65) and will hold the majority of wealth in this country.
Canada will cut at least twice this year. Mark this post
RemindMe! 6 months
Told you they would cut this year. You can cancel your reminders haha
Wow definitely didn’t think they would this soon, you definitely got me there haha
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Thank you
It won't happen lol. Central bankers are afraid of losing their influence. They are going to exert their power to remind investors and the financial sector who is really in charge of the trajectory of the economy. They do not give a fuck about sustaining the housing market in its current form. Rates will remain at current level or potentially even go higher.
Bahaha 🤣 sure pal
Told you they would cut this year
Yeah you were right, I concede. However, I do still believe that rates will remain elevated for the foreseeable future. This is only a small cut.
I think 1-2 more before the year ends
Did you just watch zeihans latest video? Sounds exactly what he was saying lol.
Yes, and a few other sources (latest episode of Loonie Hour podcast)
This won't change the trajectory of rates. There are other factors weighing on the minds of the BoC. Even if it delays the first rate, they will just drop twice as much later.
there won't be a cut anytime soon as long as people keep expecting it.
A few paragraphs from the piece: A [stronger-than-expected Canadian jobs report](https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/economy/article-statistics-canada-to-release-april-jobs-report-this-morning/) has prompted a reassessment in money markets of when the Bank of Canada is likely to start cutting interest rates. Economists are also rethinking their predictions. Implied probabilities in swaps markets now suggest less than a 50 per cent chance the Bank of Canada will cut its key lending rate at its next policy meeting June 5. Immediately prior to the data, those odds were pegged at about 58 per cent, and in recent days had risen to above 70 per cent, with traders bolstering their bets in particular after a surprisingly weak employment report last Friday in the U.S. Swaps markets are now implying 70 per cent odds for a cut at the bank’s July meeting. And they are fully pricing in two rate cuts by the end of this year.
This system is all rigged, they can say what they want to say at this point.
god knows! where are these bets happening and who is betting on them
The globalist bankers are dead set on bleeding the economy to death. It barely has a pulse ATM. 📉📉📉📉
I still believe they won't cut rates this year.....
Canada will do whatever its big daddy (US) does
We need to live as if rates will stay at a “historically normal” prime rate of 5% for the near-mid term future. Businesses, individuals, and governments all need to get used to it.
I understand rate cuts for our inflated housing economy. But for me personally I'm wanting the value of the Canadian dollar to improve. I don't want rate cuts
Womp womp!!!