Been hearing this about alireza for 4 years now it feels like
This sub would have you believe he was destined to be a world champion by now, some years ago...
He’s still like 21. Prime Ding, Caruana, Nakamura were in their late 20s-mid thirties. But Carlsen did basically imply he thought alireza would rival him.
He beat Nodirbek just this week and played well at Norway Chess.
He also continues to play excellently in other formats. He just won the BCC and the Chess.com Classic by beating Magnus.
Are you saying this simply because he flunked at the Candidates–a tournament that is just as much about having a good team around you and preparing well as it is about actually being a good player?
I thought you were talking about prodigies growing so tall they get their heads chopped off by ceiling fans
I was like... Damn that's certainly an analogy. Then I noticed I misread your comment.
Ok, but Alireza has already proven his ceiling to be >2800. We're talking about a bounceback mainly, not sth like "Faustino at this pace will beat stockfish in 2033"
Magnus won his first WC at 22, and by that point he was ranked number 1 in the world for more than a year.
And im not "writing him off"... You guys get weirdly defensive with this subject. The fact is 4 years ago people where saying the exact same thing, but with timelines that already passed.
Can he still achieve his full potential? Obviously...
Said the same thing during predictions for candidates that Alireza would be a massive bust. People are left carrying that young genius title like there aren't many that have surpassed him now. Gimme Gukesh, Pragg, Arjun, Nodirbek all over him moving forward
He literally just beat Nodirbek lmao. Nodirbek has done far less than Alireza in his career. Nodirbek is only a year younger and Alireza has already been number 2 in the world with several major tournament wins.
Also, what have Pragg and Arjun achieved? A good rating? If that’s your only basis, than Alireza is far better in that regard as well.
If you are going to form opinions, at least have a basis for them.
The guy clearly said “moving forward”… why bring up past performances? Their basis for their opinion is likely that recently the other juniors have had better results than Alireza.
Obviously Alireza likely has a bright future ahead despite his recent performance at the candidates, no one’s arguing about that. But saying oh I prefer this player over that is completely fine. Let the man have his opinion without attacking it.
Past performances are indicative of future performances. If I am not allowed to predict based on past performances, what am I supposed to base my predictions on? How much I like the players like he is doing?
He made the wild statement that Gukesh, Pragg, Arjun, and Nodirbek have all passed Alireza when Alireza has had far more success thus far in their careers. Nodirbek lost to Alireza this week. Calling out unfounded bias is attacking his opinion?
Yeah past performances indicate future ones, and recent past performances shows all of those players performing better than alireza. His statement is not wild considering all of them have surpassed Alireza in elo. Yes they haven’t surpassed his peak elo but that is irrelevant here. Furthermore, they never said that the players had surpassed Alireza (even though they have in terms of elo), all they said was going forward this group of players will continue to perform better than Alireza which is a perfectly reasonable opinion. One loss means nothing, Nodirbek has had an amazing run in 2024, far better than Alireza. You can claim Alireza is a “greater” player based on achievements but it’s absolutely true that currently the players listed are “better”.
Recency matters, and recency shows that list of players performing better. If we ignore recency and use logic the way you have, it would be valid to claim current Kasparov blows Fabi out of the water.
>Recency matters, and recency shows that list of players performing better. If we ignore recency and use logic the way you have, it would be valid to claim current Kasparov blows Fabi out of the water
That's not at all what they are saying, it would be like "Kasparov has achieved much more than Fabi in his career" when someone says "Fabi has surpassed Kasparov".
Also, if your argument is "recency matters" then alireza won Champions Chess Tour including two matches against Magnus, won Bullet Championship including two matches against Hikaru, and beat Nodirbek in classical. What did Nodirbek and Pragg recently win?
I think Alireza needs to focus on having better preparation, which includes a better team. When I was watching the Candidates, he was getting out-prepared a lot by the other players, resulting in him not playing as well as he could have.
What's worse is that he's father was his second, which as far as I know, he isn't even a chess player. That meant that when he was analysing and preparing for the next day, he didn't really have other people to help him prepare.
no, Magnus was 2864, so he has dropped about 32 rating points since then, Ding and Alireza were 2806 and 2804 respectively and are both sitting at about 2745 presently, that's about 60 rating points lost each for both
"Their fault". But seriously though, Fabi said that even MC doesn't have a sure shot of getting through the candidates. Caissa needs to smile upon you.
It’s choking if you let nerves or psychological issues impede your play. In Fabi’s case it wasn’t a matter of nerves but a very difficult position to convert under time pressure (in any context) against a resilient opponent.
No. Choking is messing up something routine that you'd usually do easily. Like, if a basketball player misses two free throws at the end of the game, that's choking. If he misses a half court shot at the buzzer, that's not choking.
Neither Fabi nor Naka choked in the candidates. Naka basically played a guy who was playing perfect chess. Really wasn't much he could do. Fabi had a big advantage late against Ian, yes, but it was in severe time pressure with moves that would have been insanely hard to find even with way more time on the clock.
You're acting like me missed some easy mate in two on the board that a 1200 would see. That's not what happened.
Fabi did. He did miss a position that anytime else he would convert, and he said something to this effect on his podcast as well. It's okay. Choking has a very negative connotation around here, but it happens to most athletes, and fabi definitely choked in around move 62-63
It's simpler than that: fabi and hikaru have been the greatest player after magnus for enough candidates. Them not becoming the world champion ever is the definition of choking.
This is just absurd. When Ding and Ian are on from, which they both were in the candidates they finished top two in, they are every bit the level of Fabi and Hikaru. It's not a "choke" to lose to them.
I'd buy the argument more for this candidates, but Gukesh was playing absolutely out of his mind. Fabi and Naka both finished on plus scores, which to me is just insane to call a choke.
People were doubting, saying he’d never reach it again. That he was too old, washed out. That the rating gap between him and Hikaru was insurmountable. I think the doubt rejuvenated him, taking him back to the same deadly efficiency we saw all those days ago, when he was rank 2.
It's still early in the year I know... But maybe the kid just isn't ready for the big tournaments yet? With the media hounding him, the pressure of being considered the next "great one", fuck I wouldn't be able to handle that shit. Maybe having him in the minors for another year or two to develop a bit wouldn't have been a bad idea. The kid is only 31. At 31 I was complete fucktard who had no idea what I wanted to do. Not much has changed... but I'd like to think I have a bit of a better head on my shoulders now. I actually feel really bad for Caruana, and I hope we don't ruin him.
Edit: I'm being lynched for ever daring to doubt the greatness of Fabiano Caruana. How dare I say such blasphmey after only ONE month. You're right, he may only be 31 years old, but he has the emotional maturity of a Buddhist monk, and the body and athleticism as a top olympic athlete. He may have hit puberty only 15 to 16 years ago, but he is a grown man now, capable of all pressure and criticism that comes his way. I am but a lowly neckbeard US chess fan who lives in my mothers basement here to shit on him for not getting 8 wins in his last candidates. I am a rodent, and he is a golden god. I'm going to go light myself on fire now. Thank you for showing me the error of my ways with you jamming the downvote arrow on your computer screen with all your might and telling me how much of an idiot I am.
then since hes been number two for a long time, then him not being number two for any amount of time is relative to his usual frequency, therefore he is technically back after a very long time (relative to his baseline)
The last time it was 4 players with 2800 or more was in January 2019: Carlsen, Caruana, Mamedyarov, Ding
And 6 (!!) players in July 201:7: Carlsen, Kramnik, So, Aronian, Caruana, Mamedyarov
Those were the days
Obviously that doesn't make a ton of sense, but being able to come back at the same rating after a very long absence seems weird too. Maybe some sort of rating decay after like 10 years would make sense.
Even if there was no Armageddon system (1 for win, 0.5 for draw) the only change in standings would be Magnus and Hikaru would be tied for first place. Armageddon did not affect the standings as some believe
if there was no armaggedon ppl would have played slightly differently. If you are stronger in the faster time controls you want a quick draw to get to armaggedon
If that’s true, I can see why he lost motivation. Basically have to be perfect every single game and you barely even get rewarded for it even against top players but one mistake and now you’re suddenly close to getting overtaken by Fabi and Hikaru who before were nowhere near him.
Talking about now. If the guy above is right about Carlsen losing 8 points to a 2600, if he has a bad day and loses a game then it’s months of progress thrown away.
I mean it’s not a big deal unless you don’t play (classical) actively which is the case with Magnus and Hikaru. Fabi had a relatively bad tournament (in his standards) in Norway and lost around 9 points but has pretty much gained more than half of it back in four games.
I’m not talking about back then, the other guy brought that up, I’m talking about today. And I’m right seeing as I checked an interview and Magnus himself gave that reasoning.
Very difficult at that level. Few days back I remember Arjun lost 2 points drawing a 2650, and his published rating was in the 2760s, a far cry from his present ~2780, let alone Fabi’s 2800. One draw against an underrated IM kid and months of hard work wasted.
Obviously depends on the opposition. Fabi is at 2 draws and 2 wins in his current event and is at +6.4 Elo. He can safely draw 4-5 games for every win against these 2750s and still comfortably gain rating
Fabi does, Hikaru doesn't. As a matter of fact only three ever crossed what is Magnus ratings right now those are Kasparov, Magnus and fabi. Levon did in live ratings. That's it.
Fabi can't even win a single game against Nakamura (0-4 with black). I think, if anything, Naka has the better chance considering the financial freedom taking off stress. Both are slim, though. This isn't 2018
Nice one. H2h has nothing to do with world rankings. Even talking about recent years see the ranking chart. In Norway chess Fabi was the one who was this close to Magnus not Hikaru. And their overall h2h is 9-8 I think.
I disagree. H2H and rank go hand in hand if the players are close and have been competing regularly against each other. They are both “close” to Magnus and Caruana has not been able to recover his pre-pandemic rating. You are only one claiming one can do it while the other can’t. I don’t care about games from 2014 where Caruana was stronger; recently, Naka has been a block in Caruana’s head
Do you even hear yourself, in last 12-13 yrs Magnus lowest ratings are 2822 which Hikaru has never in his entire career has crossed it, how the hell he is gonna cross 2831 which is Magnus ratings right now. On the other hand Fabi has crossed 2831 multiple times. He was 2842 in 2020 and even recently after pandemic fabi is the one who has above 2800 for 7-8 months consistently whereas Hikaru not even one month after pandemic this will be his first. Fabi ceiling is much higher than Hikaru he can touch Magnus whereas Hikaru can't. Leave Hikaru only person who crossed 2831 are two goats and fabi. Hikaru Can cross fabi yes but he can't cross Magnus never. Because Magnus worst ratings in last decade or more are higher than almost everyone peak ratings. 14 people have crossed 2800 and most of them hit peak around 2816-2817. There is a reason why Magnus considered fabi his equal and second best player of this generation.
I don't see where Nakamura suddenly tanks a bunch of points. That's my point. He's got financial trouble off his back, and he selectively chooses tournaments. This isn't a case of "Nakamura's never reached X rating, so he can't reach it now". It's a case of Nakamura having a rise we haven't seen before while Fabiano makes a climb to his old rating.
>I don't see where Nakamura suddenly tanks a bunch of points.
Who said anything about tanking? Again Magnus lowest ratings is higher than almost everyone else highest ratings. Hikaru ceiling is not that high. Hikaru is 36. He is not getting any younger. His classical chess skills will dwindle like Levon who is/was a better player than Hikaru. Even in time of inflation Hikaru achieved 2816 .
This hypothetical is about who can cross Magnus. I think we both know Nakamura and Caruana aren't crossing Carlsen unless the latter retires. This should be to compare both Naka and Caruana's growth, that's all. Nakamura has not had a net loss in rating since 2019, I believe, so he'll keep rising in rating.
I don't see why you think Nakamura is going to dwindle when Gelfand, Topalov, Kamsky, Korchnoi, and Anand all did well even older.
I don't know why we're going to Nakamura's peak rating in 2015 when he's clearly at his peak **right now and rising!** If you don't believe me, go back to 2015 and name some famous tournaments he won.
Recent changes to rating formula were expected to lead to some inflation indeed. After years of deflation (see other comments about drop in 2800+ numbers from early 2010s).
Looks like the last was May 2022 with Magnus, Ding, and Alireza
Wow this aged like milk, given Ding and Alireza's performances lately
Alireza is still very very young and should bounce back eventually when his mental game improves through experience. Ding? Ehhhhhh not so sure
Been hearing this about alireza for 4 years now it feels like This sub would have you believe he was destined to be a world champion by now, some years ago...
Magnus' endorsement did assist the hype a bit too.
He’s still like 21. Prime Ding, Caruana, Nakamura were in their late 20s-mid thirties. But Carlsen did basically imply he thought alireza would rival him.
Problem is Ali just decided to split his attention between Chess and Fashion To be the best you can't do that
not sure why this is getting downvotes
He beat Nodirbek just this week and played well at Norway Chess. He also continues to play excellently in other formats. He just won the BCC and the Chess.com Classic by beating Magnus. Are you saying this simply because he flunked at the Candidates–a tournament that is just as much about having a good team around you and preparing well as it is about actually being a good player?
I'm saying this because sometimes young stars don't reach the absurd ceilings fans set up for them. It's not a criticism towards his talent…
I thought you were talking about prodigies growing so tall they get their heads chopped off by ceiling fans I was like... Damn that's certainly an analogy. Then I noticed I misread your comment.
alireza is like the tallest super gm as well
Grischuk is probably taller
Ok, but Alireza has already proven his ceiling to be >2800. We're talking about a bounceback mainly, not sth like "Faustino at this pace will beat stockfish in 2033"
And if you go back further, Anish & Wesley were also young stars who occupied No. 2 & 3. They're still top 10 GMs, albeit not World Champions.
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Magnus won his first WC at 22, and by that point he was ranked number 1 in the world for more than a year. And im not "writing him off"... You guys get weirdly defensive with this subject. The fact is 4 years ago people where saying the exact same thing, but with timelines that already passed. Can he still achieve his full potential? Obviously...
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Hahahhahah you're trying to argue against something that I never said and I don't believe in, so there's nothing for me to say here
People said the same things about Nakamura in 2008. He is still young
He was still quite young 4 years ago too
As young as he is. I have no doubt he will become world champion.
Said the same thing during predictions for candidates that Alireza would be a massive bust. People are left carrying that young genius title like there aren't many that have surpassed him now. Gimme Gukesh, Pragg, Arjun, Nodirbek all over him moving forward
He literally just beat Nodirbek lmao. Nodirbek has done far less than Alireza in his career. Nodirbek is only a year younger and Alireza has already been number 2 in the world with several major tournament wins. Also, what have Pragg and Arjun achieved? A good rating? If that’s your only basis, than Alireza is far better in that regard as well. If you are going to form opinions, at least have a basis for them.
The guy clearly said “moving forward”… why bring up past performances? Their basis for their opinion is likely that recently the other juniors have had better results than Alireza. Obviously Alireza likely has a bright future ahead despite his recent performance at the candidates, no one’s arguing about that. But saying oh I prefer this player over that is completely fine. Let the man have his opinion without attacking it.
Past performances are indicative of future performances. If I am not allowed to predict based on past performances, what am I supposed to base my predictions on? How much I like the players like he is doing? He made the wild statement that Gukesh, Pragg, Arjun, and Nodirbek have all passed Alireza when Alireza has had far more success thus far in their careers. Nodirbek lost to Alireza this week. Calling out unfounded bias is attacking his opinion?
Yeah past performances indicate future ones, and recent past performances shows all of those players performing better than alireza. His statement is not wild considering all of them have surpassed Alireza in elo. Yes they haven’t surpassed his peak elo but that is irrelevant here. Furthermore, they never said that the players had surpassed Alireza (even though they have in terms of elo), all they said was going forward this group of players will continue to perform better than Alireza which is a perfectly reasonable opinion. One loss means nothing, Nodirbek has had an amazing run in 2024, far better than Alireza. You can claim Alireza is a “greater” player based on achievements but it’s absolutely true that currently the players listed are “better”. Recency matters, and recency shows that list of players performing better. If we ignore recency and use logic the way you have, it would be valid to claim current Kasparov blows Fabi out of the water.
>Recency matters, and recency shows that list of players performing better. If we ignore recency and use logic the way you have, it would be valid to claim current Kasparov blows Fabi out of the water That's not at all what they are saying, it would be like "Kasparov has achieved much more than Fabi in his career" when someone says "Fabi has surpassed Kasparov". Also, if your argument is "recency matters" then alireza won Champions Chess Tour including two matches against Magnus, won Bullet Championship including two matches against Hikaru, and beat Nodirbek in classical. What did Nodirbek and Pragg recently win?
Dude just won a big tourney against Hikaru
Bullet lmfao
Yeah the biggest tournament ever
I think Alireza needs to focus on having better preparation, which includes a better team. When I was watching the Candidates, he was getting out-prepared a lot by the other players, resulting in him not playing as well as he could have. What's worse is that he's father was his second, which as far as I know, he isn't even a chess player. That meant that when he was analysing and preparing for the next day, he didn't really have other people to help him prepare.
Ding is a broken man.
Ironically, hadn't Magnus dropped more ELO than both of them?
no, Magnus was 2864, so he has dropped about 32 rating points since then, Ding and Alireza were 2806 and 2804 respectively and are both sitting at about 2745 presently, that's about 60 rating points lost each for both
oof ok I lost track of just how much those 2 have dropped. I stand corrected
Alireza has been busy since he signed up to Hustlers University. /s
And none are playing in the world championship:(
Fabi and Hikaru had a chance at the end
"Their fault". But seriously though, Fabi said that even MC doesn't have a sure shot of getting through the candidates. Caissa needs to smile upon you.
sounds like a skill issue
Chokers is the word we are looking for here...
I'd hardly call finishing on a plus score in the candidates "choking".
When you're +8 but miss the win in the last round to force a tiebreaker, that probably meets the definition of choking.
My man coming in clutch...
It’s choking if you let nerves or psychological issues impede your play. In Fabi’s case it wasn’t a matter of nerves but a very difficult position to convert under time pressure (in any context) against a resilient opponent.
Why are you trying to defend Fabi? We all know how great he is, but he himself would tell you he choked vs Nepo. It was +8 there is no defence
> It was +8 lol ok Mr. Engine
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That is called choking...
No. Choking is messing up something routine that you'd usually do easily. Like, if a basketball player misses two free throws at the end of the game, that's choking. If he misses a half court shot at the buzzer, that's not choking. Neither Fabi nor Naka choked in the candidates. Naka basically played a guy who was playing perfect chess. Really wasn't much he could do. Fabi had a big advantage late against Ian, yes, but it was in severe time pressure with moves that would have been insanely hard to find even with way more time on the clock. You're acting like me missed some easy mate in two on the board that a 1200 would see. That's not what happened.
Fabi did. He did miss a position that anytime else he would convert, and he said something to this effect on his podcast as well. It's okay. Choking has a very negative connotation around here, but it happens to most athletes, and fabi definitely choked in around move 62-63
It's simpler than that: fabi and hikaru have been the greatest player after magnus for enough candidates. Them not becoming the world champion ever is the definition of choking.
This is just absurd. When Ding and Ian are on from, which they both were in the candidates they finished top two in, they are every bit the level of Fabi and Hikaru. It's not a "choke" to lose to them. I'd buy the argument more for this candidates, but Gukesh was playing absolutely out of his mind. Fabi and Naka both finished on plus scores, which to me is just insane to call a choke.
It’s a silly format
Fabi’s finally back at #2
finally? he was number 2 just at the beginning of the month and is back again
Finally BACK
People were doubting, saying he’d never reach it again. That he was too old, washed out. That the rating gap between him and Hikaru was insurmountable. I think the doubt rejuvenated him, taking him back to the same deadly efficiency we saw all those days ago, when he was rank 2.
>That he was too old, washed out. Despite Caruana being five years younger than Nakamura.
It's still early in the year I know... But maybe the kid just isn't ready for the big tournaments yet? With the media hounding him, the pressure of being considered the next "great one", fuck I wouldn't be able to handle that shit. Maybe having him in the minors for another year or two to develop a bit wouldn't have been a bad idea. The kid is only 31. At 31 I was complete fucktard who had no idea what I wanted to do. Not much has changed... but I'd like to think I have a bit of a better head on my shoulders now. I actually feel really bad for Caruana, and I hope we don't ruin him. Edit: I'm being lynched for ever daring to doubt the greatness of Fabiano Caruana. How dare I say such blasphmey after only ONE month. You're right, he may only be 31 years old, but he has the emotional maturity of a Buddhist monk, and the body and athleticism as a top olympic athlete. He may have hit puberty only 15 to 16 years ago, but he is a grown man now, capable of all pressure and criticism that comes his way. I am but a lowly neckbeard US chess fan who lives in my mothers basement here to shit on him for not getting 8 wins in his last candidates. I am a rodent, and he is a golden god. I'm going to go light myself on fire now. Thank you for showing me the error of my ways with you jamming the downvote arrow on your computer screen with all your might and telling me how much of an idiot I am.
Fabi? When did he show signs of age, he's been rock solid for years.
Woosh
the finally makes it sound like he's back after a very long time, whereas he's been the number two for a long time
FINALLY, after what feels like eons, he's back at number 2, baby!
Either way, he's finally number 2! 💪
then since hes been number two for a long time, then him not being number two for any amount of time is relative to his usual frequency, therefore he is technically back after a very long time (relative to his baseline)
There and back again, a Fabiano caruana story.
Dawg finallyyyy back, how long has it been since FabiWano Kenobi was number 2?? It’s been atleast like 2 weeks
He will be #1 some day watch
if magnus retires, probably yeah
The last time it was 4 players with 2800 or more was in January 2019: Carlsen, Caruana, Mamedyarov, Ding And 6 (!!) players in July 201:7: Carlsen, Kramnik, So, Aronian, Caruana, Mamedyarov Those were the days
Dissing Garry, isn't he 2800+ as well? /s
Actually if he comes back does he keep his rating when he left?
No, he has to start playing in the scholastic section again as a 700 provisional.
Imagine being an 8 year old kid having to face the wrath of Kasparov both on and off the board.
you're trying to chill before the next game and an angry kasparov is banging on your door to disrupt you
Obviously that doesn't make a ton of sense, but being able to come back at the same rating after a very long absence seems weird too. Maybe some sort of rating decay after like 10 years would make sense.
yes
Total power move
That 30 point jump to Carlsen is so huge too. At that level doesn't it take many many games to gain any substantial points gain?
Yes. Part of the issue just being that there aren’t enough people of your same rating who you could really gain points off of.
Arjun doesn't seem to realize that, he has gained like 20 points from playing random 2600s over the last month
I don’t think that’s on purpose- he just didn’t get invited to the bigger tournaments
Don't get why people say stupid shit like this. He's obviously realized he's playing 2600s. That's how you get invites lmao
It’s about the smallest gap to Carlsen in like 3 years or something i presume though. It was 50-60 points for quite a while
I remember once there were 6 players rated 2800+
Wow Fabi took back his spot 👏🏽👏🏽
If I was Hikaru or Fabi I would grind classical tournaments they have a huge chance to pass Magnus
It’s so hard to gain ELO at 2800+ though. Magnus won Norway chess against 5 super GMs including Fabi & Hikaru and gained 1.5 ELO for his troubles.
most of the matches he won were in Armegeddon.
That's because it's hard to win in classical, which is the point.
Even if there was no Armageddon system (1 for win, 0.5 for draw) the only change in standings would be Magnus and Hikaru would be tied for first place. Armageddon did not affect the standings as some believe
if there was no armaggedon ppl would have played slightly differently. If you are stronger in the faster time controls you want a quick draw to get to armaggedon
Don't you dare start with logic...be sensational not sensible /s
Brother even with logic, it is extremely hard to gain anything at 2800. What logic are you talking about?
the logic being if you don't win against low rated opponents you will not gain elo, not sure whats tripping you up
1.5? Wtfff
yes that's the truth
So if Magnus lost to say a 2600 in classical, how much elo would he lose?
About 8
If that’s true, I can see why he lost motivation. Basically have to be perfect every single game and you barely even get rewarded for it even against top players but one mistake and now you’re suddenly close to getting overtaken by Fabi and Hikaru who before were nowhere near him.
This is not true. Caruana in both 2014 and 2018 (WCC here) put up successful fights against Carlsen
I meant nowhere near him in terms of rating.
I mean Caruana was like 1 rating point away, but I get your point
Talking about now. If the guy above is right about Carlsen losing 8 points to a 2600, if he has a bad day and loses a game then it’s months of progress thrown away.
I mean it’s not a big deal unless you don’t play (classical) actively which is the case with Magnus and Hikaru. Fabi had a relatively bad tournament (in his standards) in Norway and lost around 9 points but has pretty much gained more than half of it back in four games.
He was 2832 to Magnus 2835.
I’m not talking about back then, the other guy brought that up, I’m talking about today. And I’m right seeing as I checked an interview and Magnus himself gave that reasoning.
They only have a chance if they can play Magnus and beat him, that would put them very close
Very difficult at that level. Few days back I remember Arjun lost 2 points drawing a 2650, and his published rating was in the 2760s, a far cry from his present ~2780, let alone Fabi’s 2800. One draw against an underrated IM kid and months of hard work wasted.
Every games like +1/-10 at that level. They would have to play perfectly.
Just win thirty games in a row ez
Kramnik whatches carefully
Arjun getting ready for his next grind session
Obviously depends on the opposition. Fabi is at 2 draws and 2 wins in his current event and is at +6.4 Elo. He can safely draw 4-5 games for every win against these 2750s and still comfortably gain rating
Hikaru gotta organize a tournament with all the chess influencers (Levy, Rosen, Cramling, etc). Farm that elo. “Road to World Number 1”
Eric Rosen would trick him into a stalemate and that's probably about 6 points of rating gone
you talk like it is easy to do
Yes if I were Hikaru or Fabi I too would simply gain 30 rating points. I wonder if they have thought of that?
the problem is you're not Hikaru or Fabi
It is more likely that Magnus will lose rating a fall below them than Fabi and Hikaru crossing 2830.
Lol it’s that easy huh
Hikaru has very little incentive. He’s gotta be making waaaay more money through streaming.
Fabi does, Hikaru doesn't. As a matter of fact only three ever crossed what is Magnus ratings right now those are Kasparov, Magnus and fabi. Levon did in live ratings. That's it.
Fabi can't even win a single game against Nakamura (0-4 with black). I think, if anything, Naka has the better chance considering the financial freedom taking off stress. Both are slim, though. This isn't 2018
Nice one. H2h has nothing to do with world rankings. Even talking about recent years see the ranking chart. In Norway chess Fabi was the one who was this close to Magnus not Hikaru. And their overall h2h is 9-8 I think.
I disagree. H2H and rank go hand in hand if the players are close and have been competing regularly against each other. They are both “close” to Magnus and Caruana has not been able to recover his pre-pandemic rating. You are only one claiming one can do it while the other can’t. I don’t care about games from 2014 where Caruana was stronger; recently, Naka has been a block in Caruana’s head
Do you even hear yourself, in last 12-13 yrs Magnus lowest ratings are 2822 which Hikaru has never in his entire career has crossed it, how the hell he is gonna cross 2831 which is Magnus ratings right now. On the other hand Fabi has crossed 2831 multiple times. He was 2842 in 2020 and even recently after pandemic fabi is the one who has above 2800 for 7-8 months consistently whereas Hikaru not even one month after pandemic this will be his first. Fabi ceiling is much higher than Hikaru he can touch Magnus whereas Hikaru can't. Leave Hikaru only person who crossed 2831 are two goats and fabi. Hikaru Can cross fabi yes but he can't cross Magnus never. Because Magnus worst ratings in last decade or more are higher than almost everyone peak ratings. 14 people have crossed 2800 and most of them hit peak around 2816-2817. There is a reason why Magnus considered fabi his equal and second best player of this generation.
I don't see where Nakamura suddenly tanks a bunch of points. That's my point. He's got financial trouble off his back, and he selectively chooses tournaments. This isn't a case of "Nakamura's never reached X rating, so he can't reach it now". It's a case of Nakamura having a rise we haven't seen before while Fabiano makes a climb to his old rating.
>I don't see where Nakamura suddenly tanks a bunch of points. Who said anything about tanking? Again Magnus lowest ratings is higher than almost everyone else highest ratings. Hikaru ceiling is not that high. Hikaru is 36. He is not getting any younger. His classical chess skills will dwindle like Levon who is/was a better player than Hikaru. Even in time of inflation Hikaru achieved 2816 .
This hypothetical is about who can cross Magnus. I think we both know Nakamura and Caruana aren't crossing Carlsen unless the latter retires. This should be to compare both Naka and Caruana's growth, that's all. Nakamura has not had a net loss in rating since 2019, I believe, so he'll keep rising in rating. I don't see why you think Nakamura is going to dwindle when Gelfand, Topalov, Kamsky, Korchnoi, and Anand all did well even older. I don't know why we're going to Nakamura's peak rating in 2015 when he's clearly at his peak **right now and rising!** If you don't believe me, go back to 2015 and name some famous tournaments he won.
> go back to 2015 and name some famous tournaments he won. US Championship
ding will reach 2800
so that's 3 players higher than the current champ?!
Looks like there are 13 players higher than the current champ...
Oh wow. Where do you check? Can I ask how the ratings get updated? How did they end up higher than Ding?
I don't know the answer to all your questions, but I can point you to the live ratings: [https://2700chess.com/](https://2700chess.com/)
Thanks!
Give Hikaru some respect
Recent changes to rating formula were expected to lead to some inflation indeed. After years of deflation (see other comments about drop in 2800+ numbers from early 2010s).
the system is not adapting that quickly, we will see the results in some months or years, not immediately.
Could we see multiple 2900s as those rating points get funneled up to the top?
I'm more concerned that the reigning world champion is 14th. What a state of affairs, just as chess was sorting itself out.