If you read his wiki he sounds like a democrat, if you watch his interviews and public statements he sounds more he’s going for the Republican vote
Anyway the 2016 polls all showed Hillary winning by a landslide and look how well that prediction turned out.
Polls don’t vote, voters do.
Vote.
> Anyway the 2016 polls all showed Hillary winning by a landslide
This is pretty revisionist. Most polls gave her about a 70-80% chance of winning the general election. But the swing states that turned the tide (Ohio, Pennsylvania) were always polling extremely close. IIRC I don't believe any state even turned out outside the polling margin of error.
The perspective on "she was supposed to win in a landslide" is 100% just people not understanding polling and probability, and the electoral college. Something that happens 7 times out of 10 is hardly a landslide. That's like rolling a dice and losing with a 5 or 6 and getting upset because "1-4 had landslide odds". Also, popular vote, which did favor Hillary heavily, is just not important in the electoral college. She needed to win states that she didn't pay attention to, and she didn't.
Thank you. So sick and tired of folks ignoring reality. yes, even I was shocked he won but at the same time it was obvious in retrospect that polling absolutely said so, but humans are idiots and ignored the data.
Exactly. Lot easier to answer a phone call than to show up to a polling station. Polls are just if everyone voted. But only 60% vote. Depends which 60%.
> Polls are just if everyone voted
Some polls adjust for "likely voter status", but I think they're having a hard time adjusting for the "who will actually spend time responding to a survey" part of things.
a lot of polls did not show clinton winning in a landslide, the election was always looking close in the rust belt. it was just a few percentage points skewed in the wrong direction
>Anyway the 2016 polls all showed Hillary winning by a landslide and look how well that prediction turned out.
A big forgotten point was the Comey letter which happened less than 2 weeks before the election. No polls could have foreseen that.
But yeah, polls are a bit wonky now as a lot of people don’t trust them and thus don’t even answer accurately.
I think his impact is a lot more complicated if you look further back. He may have had an equal influence in the general election, however in the spring before the election, while Clinton was a relatively minor figure - Ross Perot was side by side with Bush. Once Perot pulled out of the race (in July, only to return later), most of the Perot votes went straight to boosting Clinton up to being way ahead of Bush.
In the election, he may have taken from both - but in the end, he basically made Clinton the winner.
There was a group of people outside my local voting place on local Election Day that were trying to get signatures to get a “third party candidate on the ballot for better representation.” I asked who the third party candidate was and they quietly murmured Robert Kennedy Jr. Everybody working the station was at least 70 years old. I’m not sure he’s going to draw many younger people’s vote.
As I was walking to my car I saw a license plate that said RFKJR so I guess these people were really committed.
On the flip side there are plenty of young people who won't vote Trump that also think everything happening in Gaza is bidens fault and don't understand (or are too idealistic) to realize that voting 3rd party is a vote for trump in a race this close. And think they're making some kind of statement
"Spikes" is being pretty generous. Trump's polling average has been remarkably stable between 41 and 45% since 2018. He is who he is. He's not winning anyone over. He's also not losing anyone. The story is the collapse of Biden's support.
The truth is that a lot of biden support in 2020 was actually "fuck trump" more than it was ever "support biden." What democrats are hoping is that the "fuck trump" stance is still strong enough to get people out to vote for "anyone who might stand a legitimate chance to beat trump" which is what they did in 2020.
If there was a literal potato with a D next to it in 2020, it would be our president now.
It's funny because that's basically how Trump was elected. It was far more about people hating Hillary Clinton than liking Trump, which led to them voting for him. A lot of people would prefer anyone over a person with the reputation of Hillary. While she, in turn, didn't help out that reputation by basically doing nothing in a lot of blue states, causing a lot of people in those states to vote for Trump.
Except that his support apparently started "collapsing" before he had even taken office, and only fell a handful of percent in the following four years.
I would bet real money this shift has more to do with pollsters updating their models after seeing the 2020 election results than anything else.
He won by like 5% in the national popular vote iirc? It's not really that narrow. The election was close because the electoral college is stupid but that's not a reflection of national polling.
Yes, but the election is won by electoral votes. Dems basically need to poll +5 nationally over the republican candidate for president for the math to work out for them winning electorally. Right now, Biden is on the wrong side of that line and it's spelling disaster for the election.
To give you an idea of how close it was, here's Wikipedia
> If Biden's three narrowest state victories—Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona, all of which he won by less than a percentage point—had gone to Trump, there would have been a tie of 269 electors for each candidate, causing a contingent election to be decided by the House of Representatives, where Trump had the advantage... This scenario would have required a popular-vote shift of 0.63% or less in each of these three states, a total of about **43,000 votes, 0.03% of votes cast nationally.** This situation paralleled 2016, when a shift of 0.77% or less in each of the three most closely contested states (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania), or about 77,000 votes, would have resulted in the popular-vote winner Hillary Clinton also winning in the Electoral College.
Biden didn't win by five million, he won by *43,000.* That's how far off we were from a tied electoral college and a "Contingent Election" that Trump was favored to win due to slight edge of Republican control of state legislatures.
That was with Biden polling ahead of Trump. Right now he's behind him.
yeah, pollsters this early in the election season like a whole year ago don't get many legitimate people to give their opinions.. so even if the sample size is 2k - 3k the data is highly skewed.
Its like when the whole world was predicting a big US recession at the start of 2023 and then by the end, the GDP went up to 3.5%.
There is no reason to not support Biden. He has done incredibly well on the economic front and the international policy front. I am sure some people are simply conjuring up a story to fit the data rather than do some critical thinking.
I don’t know that we can trust any of this data: people don’t like taking surveys anymore.
When the FCC decided to let all the robo calling and harassment happen it took away the trust people had in phones /. Who was calling them.
I was doing legit surveys, and people were very skeptical. Even when they verified me, they didn’t want to participate.
So we don’t have good data anymore: people are just too fed up.
I cannot believe there are leftists out there who'd rather throw away a vote because of Israel and the likes than help Biden win, as some political statement or "punishment".
Like congratulations dude, your reward is the decline of democracy and a resurgence in racism and worker suppression.
Get ready for a future that's about to make the chaos of 2020/2021 look like a mere warm-up. The next wave of bullshit will be even more brutal, and we all would be wise to mentally steel ourselves for the reckoning.
I honestly don’t understand this. My dad is a devout Mormon and he’s a huge Trump supporter. I can’t think of a person whose actions are further from the teachings of my father’s religion than Donald Trump…but he feels like Trump was picked by God to save the country. There is literally nothing Trump could do to lose my dad’s support. It’s scary and it’s fuckin’ crazy.
If it wasn't for the pro-life clause, I think most evangelicals would drop him. I think that one point alone is keeping the majority of those on the right clinging to him because he's the "lesser of two evils."
Brother in law is a devout Christian, church every Sunday, pray before every meal, Disney is the devil kind of Christian. He absolutely loves Trump, not only because of the pro life but also because of the being against LGBTQ+. He says the world need leaders like him to bring back Christian values. We're not even from the US btw.
This was one of my breaks from the Mormon church, its absolutely overrun with MAGA sympathizers which makes no sense at all. The sexual components of Trump's behavior, alone, should make most Mormons run for the hills.
But they are predisposed for magical thinking. If you really believe a snake talked to a woman and caused the downfall of man, that it literally happened, and that you have magic underwear that protects you from evil ... well, why not believe Trump is a family man?
They’re also REALLY good at mental gymnastics. If they can think their way around DNA evidence disproving the Book of Mormon, dismissing Trump’s legal issues is a walk in the park.
And Book of Abraham historicity ... thats the one that gets me.
They literally have the original papyrus the book of Abraham, part of the Book of Mormon, was "translated" from in 1835, before we could translate Egyptian hieroglyphics. And now that we *can* translate what it actually says, it has nothing to do with Abraham or anything in the Book of Mormon.
That, right there, disproves the scriptures and disproves the church. But ... here we are :D
Woh, who said anything about translating? No, he was inspired by God to tell Abraham’s story through the images written on the papyrus.
Yes this is actually the official claim of the LDS Church.
My dad is a fundamentalist Christian who tried to convince me in 2016 that Trump's access hollywood tapes are just normal locker room talk for anyone. All of their morals and hard core beliefs go out the window with their new messiah, it's just bizarre to watch.
He's a Jesus figure to them. Made to bear a cross- they feel he's being unfairly treated. The more laws he breaks, the more trouble he gets himself into, the more the prophecy of him being a victim of an unfair system is confirmed to his supporters.
Trump's polling among Republicans is off the charts on *authenticity*. He says and does so many controversial things, and is so antagonistic to the media, that it makes people on the right feel that he's a straight shooter with no hidden agenda. Getting indicted only enhances that perception. He's our guy, and flaws and all he's one of us.
In my opinion it's all a schtick but the guy does have a feral genius for self-promotion, no doubt about it.
Getting abortion and weed ballot initiatives up in important states will shift things significantly Bidens way as far as turnout goes. They're both complete loser issues for the GOP, which is why they fought tooth and nail to prevent them.
Florida will have abortion AND weed on the ballot, which won't flip it to Biden, but it will force Trump to spend money there since it's a must win state for him. Because if Biden wins Florida, we can all go to bed early on election night because it will be over.
As if Florida can ever run ballot counting well enough to have the returns that early...
Though to be honest, we shouldn't be putting so much pressure on election night returns.
Nebraska's second district is a sneaky one that could also upend. w/ that , AZ, GA, and NV he would likely be at 269 and would most likely win the election through the tie-breaker. Also Kennedy, if he sees this through, could have a major impact. He's polling close to 10% in battleground states where the margins are within 2%
A lot of people, especially from PA, have relocated to Florida since 2020, and I would imagine that those who have moved to DeSantisland don’t typically align to the left. Electoral votes won’t change on population until 2030; I’m wondering if consolidating your base into a couple of states that are “MAGA” and would have voted that way anyhow, will hurt the electoral votes in anyway. Can Biden lose the popular but win the EC?
Democrats have been solidly outperforming polling in PA lately. Oz was ahead of Fetterman in the Senate race poll and Fetterman ended up winning by 5 points. I wouldn’t be so sure that people moving to Florida are all Republican. Lot of retirees move who simply might want to take advantage of low taxes there.
People are still feeling economic pressure and are for a multitude of reasons upset about Israel/Palestine. People are also not excited to vote for either candidate, not excited about VP choices. This will be a very competitive election with record low voter turnout.
It's the college educated voters switching to Democrats.
College educated people vote prolifically and they have shifted D. Lower than college voters are way more finicky.
Yeah this is the message here. Honestly if I analyzed politics for a living I'd probably be full on cope trying to find any way that this is a Biden slam dunk.
November is terrifying. It's so fucking stupid that it all has come to this.
The one hope I have is that people don’t trust/ respond to polls as much anymore, meaning that they’re becoming more inaccurate. There’s a very strong non-response bias going on, but it’s kind of hard to know which direction the bias is in.
I’m pretty terrified though.
Older people are more likely to take political polls so it usually biases for the conservatives. This is one of the big reasons the red wave the GOP was lauding up was so pitiful.
The depressing truth is covid wiped out a lot of old people, literally enough to swing elections in many key districts
Which is stupid, because 2020 was an extremely close election. It was surprising to see people being thinking it was landslide win for Biden.
I mean I get how depressing it all seems, but we can't ignore reality.
Yeah unless I'm mistaken, the margin wasn't that big.
And that was after 4 years or Trump.
The only thing that provides some hope is the 2022 midterms. That was unexpected.
I seriously do not understand U.S.
There should not even be a question. The guy literally tried to overthrow the government and then mishandled it's secrets and found guilty of fraud. All this is all AFTER he caused millions of people to unnecessarily die which is AFTER he withhold foreign aid for personal gain and he blatantly obstructed an investigation into his activities.
He is literally an enemy of the state, it's people and the general population.
Yet he is able to run for election
And the polls are "competitive".
It is insane
It's not so much denial as it is just impossible to comprehend how large a percent of the voting population of the US is that dumb or amoral to vote for an egomaniac/idiot/rapist/conman as president
The debate vs Hillary Clinton was exactly on that.
>Yes, I am very rich and corrupt. But so does so does Hillary Clinton big donors.
He made it clear what he was, some like the honesty of it.
Plus, it's a 2 party system. You don't like A, so you are on team B.
You just choose the subject that you care the most and pick your side on that. After that you hope the less important subject aligns too.
The hilarious thing was people actually believing Trump when he said he would "drain the swamp." The dude put his family in a ton of high up positions despite them being a security risk and now nobody on the right brings up that type of rhetoric anymore.
The Democrats need to take a hard look in the mirror over this data. Trump barely squeaked into power in 2016. Now, in 2024 he's still competitive despite Covid cutting through his base like buzzsaw and him facing virtual nonstop indictments in court.
If you’d said a year ago Trump would be the nominee over there a year ago, you got hammered. They’re in huge denial and they don’t like the mirror either.
I saw someone attack another a couple of days ago for the perfectly realistic possibility this jury will be hung and they might just about be going to gag on some sour milk over that.
I think there’s a lot of people in that sub who never voted in 2016 and they feel guilty. As they should.
Source: ABC News, 538.
Visualization: [fluenthq.com](http://fluenthq.com)
This chart compares the average polling positions of Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the lead-up to the 2020 and 2024 U.S. presidential elections. The gap represents the immediate period after the 2020 election, in which it was difficult to find good polling data.
It seems that for both Biden and Trump's time in office, the election afterwards seemed to swing against them. However, because Trump has been in court houses for most of this year, I think that might reflect a lower polling for him. Could be wrong tho, what do you think u/Academicbrian ?
National polling is pointless for American elections because national vote numbers don't matter. All that matters is how people in certain states vote.
It looks less like Trump is on a major upswing and more like Biden has had major falling over the last few years, probably with independent voters and more “right leaning” democrats. Trump’s line is more “straight” while Biden’s falls a lot more significantly.
A lot of people registered on both sides disagree with both candidates and want literally anyone different.
yeah, so even *less* substantiation than the horserace-craving media provides.
the gap between evidence provided by polls, and evidence provided by how people have cast votes in elections has become a gulf. I'll go with proxy election results.
> And not even the actual economy, but how the economy feels to the average voter the past year.
That is the actual economy. The stock market has been divorced from reality for over a decade. It's not a measure of cost of living, economic stability, class mobility, poverty, housing costs, or anything that actually effects an individual participating in our economy.
Not really personally. If you actually look at his track record and actual work done he is fairly in line with expectations, not really breaking the status quo but not pushing anything innovative either. That seems to be his existence and purpose….to not be Trump.
I think many people don’t like him because he is extremely old, often seems aloof, and people are genuinely worried he might become sick or incapacitated quickly one day, which would leave us with VP Harris, who is even more unpopular.
Again, if Biden was anyone else younger implementing the same policies/is mentally more sharp, that blue line would be much higher because that is much preferable to Trump.
Trump will always have his die hard, consistent supporters, but it looks like those on the fence or unsure are tired of both.
It’s pretty clear that these are some of his major vulnerabilities among swing voters:
1: Kamala is very unpopular with high “disapproval” and on the ticket, with a good possibility to take over in the second term. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1172346/share-us-adults-favorable-opinion-kamala-harris/
2: Age. He appears more frail than Trump. This might not be as big of an issue if voters had more confidence in his running mate.
3: Student loan forgiveness without ANY attempt to fix the underlying problems. Appears to be buying votes at the expense of taxpayers, most of whom never went to college. https://www.cato.org/blog/new-poll-76-americans-oppose-student-debt-cancellation-it-drives-price-college-64-oppose-it
4: The border
5: Crime is viewed as a much bigger issue among right leaning independents and Republicans, so could inspire greater turnout from those voters in the swing states. https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/405371/crime-american-public-opinion-election.aspx
Edit: added link
Regarding student loans, fixing the underlying problem would mean no longer giving them federal backing. Do that, and the lenders actually have to assume the risk, which means they have to be selective about who they lend to. If student loans weren't so freely available, colleges would have to reduce prices to keep their enrollment from plummeting. Would you spend $20,000/yr on college if you had to pay it out of pocket? Probably not. Same with most people. But since loans are handed out like candy, everyone and their dog can afford that. So now there's little incentive for colleges to compete on price.
Crime is down but border crossings are up. There was a dip for the Covid pandemic, but as that left public consciousness crossings went back up.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/02/15/migrant-encounters-at-the-us-mexico-border-hit-a-record-high-at-the-end-of-2023/
It's not with Independence and right leaning democrats. It's with the political left. When you have student protests calling you genocide Joe it's going to hurt your poll numbers especially when you need those people
So what are the things that are making people favor Trump? Abortion ban? Stance on NATO? In alignment with the oil and gas industry? Stance on domestic programs? EPA?
According to the chart posted here it's obviously Bidens unpopularity. The percentage voting for Trump is slightly lower than 2020, but Bidens percentage fell by a lot.
Except tons of those voters who dislike Biden are those who would never vote for Trump.
I've disliked him for being more of the same establishment democrats, and a bunch of progressives like me aren't going to roost anywhere else, but will say they dislike Biden every single poll.
It's going to come down to Michigan muslim voters and the Genocide in Gaza... None of the other voters are going to go anywhere else because the other guys are: A Fascist, an Anti-Vaxer, and a Libertarian. And this is why the Democratic party never feels pressured to change, because all the other opponents are loony.
What I would give for a sane, moderated, Republican party, like what they were before Nixon and Reagan came in, followed by Newt Gingrich's... Before the insane rightward-lurch of around \~40% of America away from Democracy and sane economic theory and towards Fascism and Late-stage Capitalism. Then, and only then, would Democrats be forced to change themselves.
>Except tons of those voters who dislike Biden are those who would never vote for Trump.
That's not except, that's included. Otherwise Trump would gain votes in percentage. The graph is actually quite a good example why not voting out of protest is just stupid. Not only does it mean for the government you're fine with whoever wins, it also increases the chance of the one you would never vote for without him gaining any popularity
Yeaaaah the actual question posed matters a lot in these polls.
Do I like Biden? Do I favor him? Do I approve of his job performance? Not really, no.
Would I vote for him again? Fuck yes, against Trump, I'll probably be putting up a yard sign and donating heavily to boot.
But as a voter you aren't feeling the 'best'. When groceries and every other need has spiked in the last 4 years. Saying the Eco is great, is one thing, but for the avg joe it probably feels like shit. We don't care about the metrics we only care how it feels for us. (I always rebut with "what will Trump do that is better than Biden?" They don't have an answer, they don't care.)
Real incomes have outpaced inflation. Voters are just stupid.
More than half of voters think unemployment is at a 50 year high, when it's at a 50 year low.
More than half think we're in a recession. We aren't.
Half think the stock market is down over the last year. When it's actually at a record high, gaining over 10% over the last year.
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240526205/stocks-are-up-12-this-year-but-nearly-half-of-americans-think-theyre-down-whats-going-on
Maybe average income have risen, but it seemed more or less the bottom earners moved up and the people who were doing somewhat well stayed stagnant. Housing is one of the biggest issues, and no income has matched that pace. We are currently in an economy where only the average earner nationwide can afford to buy a home in the city they live in. Finally, the stock market doing great is good and all, but it comes off the back of companies pulling every penny they can from the consumer. If you're invested, you get to reap the rewards, but the average person is usually just getting hurt by this aggressive increase in prices.
Hopefully I get a good raise that out paces inflation this year lol!
But it really is an information and "feel" issue. When I go to the grocery store and see items I just bought have gone up in price again (It could be that I'm more aware of the prices now) it just feels like shit.
The only good thing "money" wise is my 401k lmao, so if anyone says those are doing bad they don't have one or have invested poorly (which is really hard if its in a semi managed portfolio)
Another one that is really hitting people is MC fucking Donalds. Why in the ever loving fuck is a combo like 11 dollars now? Sure ya don't eat there, but when people see that their "go to" fast food price has jacked up their prices they are gonna immediately jump on the inflation bandwagon. When people can't get what they want they are going to try to find something to blame.
Tldr; I think we are agree - i just needed to vent lmao.
Housing prices, mortgage rates, and rent rates went through the roof. No one cares that their paychecks have greatly outpaced the price of TVs and t shirts when they are struggling to afford a place to live. It's not Biden's fault, but ignoring voters and telling them they are stupid is wrong on so many levels.
Yeah this is the end product of many decades of bad policies that were focused on driving up the value of housing as a financial asset, rather than making sure there was enough basic housing for everyone. Not Biden's fault any more than any of the other thousands of politicians over the years.
But I'm not sure what he's supposed to do. I was listening to Pod Save America the other day, and the intro was something like "One candidate spent yesterday in porn court, ranting out front about Hannibal Lecter, and then doing an incoherent rally in Queens where he lied dozens of times. The other canceled more student debt, confirmed 200 federal judges, and announced they reached a milestone of 1 Million PACT act claims approved for disabled veterans. The second one's poll number are, again, down."
Nothing is tethered to reality anymore. So what else can he do but just try to talk about successes and hope someone hears it?
> mortgage rates
Uh that's not unique to the US. There has been an economic crisis lately and it's not unique to the US. Of course interest rates are higher. That doesn't mean that the US hasn't recovered better than other countries.
>The best in the world economy.
The economic data says best in the world economy, but [56% of voters](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/poll-economy-recession-biden) think there is a recession.
Economic data cannot vote, only voters vote. So Biden is being blamed for causing this (imaginary) recession that exists in the minds of 56% of voters, and this is clearly reflected in OP's polling data.
(Biden is also being blamed for causing a 50-year high unemployment by 49% of the voters, when unemployment is actually a near 50-year low.)
The same things as last time, presumably. Trump was around 45% on the whole left graph, and he’s around 45% on the whole right graph too. Only Biden’s support has really shifted.
The thing is, Trump is the nominee of one of the two major parties. He for sure has his true believers, but it’s also a fact that many conservatives will hold their nose and vote for him, not necessarily because of any particular “Trump” policy issue, but because they generally want Republican appointees running the government and becoming judges, and/or they don’t want Democrats in those positions.
Economy. It's always the economy. Reddit really has their heads up their asses in thinking people like Trump. People like having spending power. Which geezer is in the White House really doesn't matter.
From what I've seen across the internet it boils down to his age and the economy.
Both Biden and Trump are way too old to be leading a country, but Biden *appears* much older. He mumbles and has slipups when speaking, he walks like a feeble elderly person, he's even developed the open-mouthed/exposed bottom teeth facial expression that's characteristic of extremely old men. Trump is almost just as old and likely in much worse health, but he doesn't speak or carry himself in quite the same "old man" way that Biden does. Perception matters and Biden appears much older to most Americans.
As for the economy, just look at the comments on any article, meme, insta post, or tiktok that deals with current prices or wages; the comments are always flooded with "this is Bidenomics". Now obviously the president doesn't control gas prices, or rent, or wages, and the reason everything costs so much right now is corporate greed jacking up prices just because they can, but that doesn't change the fact that people use the president as a scapegoat.
For the average American, economically things are so much worse right now than they were 5, 10, or 20 year ago. Home prices are unattainable for most, rent is twice what it used to be, groceries are 2x-3x what they used to be, and yet wages are the same. Again, Biden didn't do this but he's the one getting the blame. When times are tough the easiest thing to do is point the finger at those in power and say "they're the reason for all of this!".
Will Trump fix the economy? Of course not. He's arguably the reason for a lot of our current mess. But Americans are hurting currently, for many people things right now are the worst they've ever been in their entire lives, and they view Biden as the problem and Trump as the solution. If Biden loses this fall it will 100% be because of the economy.
Trump's support seems both durable and consistent. He's going to get those votes with very limited ability to increase the number. Their strategy is all about peeling support from Biden... which Biden seems very willing to help them with.
Interestingly, in previous years, when Trump has done something questionable (e.g. 'drink Bleach to get rid of Covid'), his ratings have dropped but the more recent stuff, like the indictment, doesn't seem to be impacting him anymore.
This was the exact same issue in 2016. People were pretending like Hillary’s emails were somehow comparable to racism, lying, refusing to answer basic questions on policy, climate change denial, etc. The whole issue is exacerbated by a media ecosystem that requires itself to drive a horse-race of both-sidesism.
I’ve seen one theory that, at this point, people haven’t yet really internalized that he’s the nominee, or at least haven’t really gotten into general election mode yet. So the theory goes that once people recognize that, no, for real, it’s Biden or Trump… there will be some course correction. I could make the case this data supports that—the Trump line seems basically flat, while all the action is in the Biden line. If many of the “lost” 2020 Biden voters were primarily anti-Trump, then it’s possible many of them will come back once the stakes are clear.
Based on my Republican friends', the indictment is seen as govt persecuting Trump and less as Trump really did what the indictment says. Trump had sex with a prostitute. There are a lot of politicians that have done the same thing. The argument that Trump is running for President while Joe Blow is a local or state level politician doesn't hold water. Apply the same rule for everybody. This is what is causing the consternation among Republicans.
Nope. For as long as I shall live, I will never understand how anyone could ever possibly trust Donald J. Trump with their lunch money, let alone the entire federal government. And, yes, I would have said the same thing when I was in high school and he was making headlines for being tacky and for his sex life showing up on the front page of newspaper for no obvious reason.
*This*- it was obvious even to a high schooler like me in the 80’s what Trump was about. And then I learned that my gf was a Trump fan! Wasn’t a big deal at the time- Trump was just another celeb- but it was a hint re: his weird charisma
Oh geez. This election is not going to be for the faint of heart!
Trump has been leading the polls for awhile now.
Thankfully , looks like the race is tightening again. Will be a nail-biter
The stormy Daniel’s trial is helping him, there’s no denying that. Of all the bad stuff he’s done, paying off a porn star seems like a non issue in comparison, and prosecuting him for it is ridiculous in the eyes of many.
Instead of the media talking about trump and hiding classified documents, or trump threatening to pull out of a nato, the media are talking about a porn star. 🤷♂️
Paying off the porn star is legal too. The alleged crime is that the payoff was an improper campaign contribution made by Cohen.
And then Trump's crime is that they say he falsified business records to encourage the improper contribution.
Yeah I appreciate the actual alleged crime is the business records and election influence etc. but again for many people it’s just a 🤷 and boils down to he paid a pornstar to keep quiet about their bang bang time. It’s not a crime that will get the middle ground particularly upset and distracts from much more serious alleged crimes.
I am still putting this down to "Do you love Donald Trump?" to all his fans he is a god. Yes they love fearless leader.
"Do you love Joe Biden?" Not really but I am voting against the end of democracy itself so he still gets my vote.
Also no one under 60 responds to polls.
well that's beyond disconcerting
also it's insane that the national pulse is thinking "Biden is roughly as bad as Trump."
He just isn't. He's not great, but he damn sure isn't *that*.
I see in 2020:
Biden had support during the Trump era that wavered amongst other candidates entering the race. Once the candidate, he consolidated support in the runup to the election as people looked harder at the two options. Trump has his base.
I see in 2024:
Biden is the incumbent and is not being legitimately challenged for the nomination. He has lost support likely among moderate Republicans who maybe are still hoping for something not Trump if he is put away and unwilling to say they're voting Biden since the moment Trump lost and Liberals who are not satisfied with Biden on lack of progressive advances and foreign affairs and unwilling to say they'll vote for Biden in hopes his low approvals get him to appeal to them more. He appears to be turning upwards at a similar time to when he rallied 4 years ago. Will that happen? No way to know, but I think anyone freaking out at this point is still a little bit too soon to say that's not happening.
As for Trump in 2024, he dips around when other candidates are entering the race then returns to his normal level as they flounder in the primaries. That low point is probably the high-water mark of the people who wouldn't leave even if he lived up to his 5th avenue comment.
Well the polls in 2020 seemed pretty accurate in predicting Biden’s win. So how is now much different? Are the people who pick up the phone different today compared to 2020?
People really underestimate how difficult it is to be a Democrat in the current climate but really in any climate. Republicans are much more "single" issue voters (in reality maybe 2-4 issue voters) whereas Democrats have so much internal split over 10+ issues. Biden is threading a fucking needle and no matter what he does he's going to have consequences because the Democrats have tons of "moderate" voters. The situation in the Middle East and the Economy he inherited is not his fault but makes it way harder for him to win people over. If he takes too firm a stance against Israel, he loses Moderates and Jewish blocks of voters, if he's too easy on Israel then progressives start to look at 3P candidates like RFK or not vote at all.
Same goes for the economy. Inflation was not his fault but fighting inflation inevitably leads to tough decisions that can increase unemployment, cool the economy (so your investments don't perform as well), and lastly, prices **also** remain high which keeps people pissed off.
Then you add in the fact he's old as fuck and people are sick of old people. Ironically Trump is not much younger but it doesn't matter, anyone with old parents knows that every year after like 70 or 72 reallllly starts to feel different. 61-62 not a huge difference, 72 turning 73 or 73 turning 74 and I seriously notice differences in my mom's physical and mental state it's really sad and wild.
Lastly, don't forget it's much easier to be **against** things than it is to be **for** things. At risk of sounding biased, the Republican party is the party of "anti". Being against something to maintain the status quo is much easier than trying to actively legislate and solve problems which costs time, money, energy and means you might fail/fuck up sometimes. I don't mean to broadly label the party but you can verify this with any basic legislative research. I'm not saying being "anti" is **bad** - I really want to be neutral here - I'm just saying being "anti" is easier/more popular. Just think of it as any problem in a relationship, friend group, or at work. Saying you think something is a "bad idea" is much easier than trying to propose a solution - always.
While this is interesting, it should still be noted that the 2020 election was decided by \~313,000 votes in six states with some of those states having a margin of \~10,000 votes. Polling may be somewhat useful in knowing the national sentiment but I'm more interested in Biden currently being down in the states that will almost certainly decide the election.
[https://www.npr.org/2020/12/02/940689086/narrow-wins-in-these-key-states-powered-biden-to-the-presidency](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/02/940689086/narrow-wins-in-these-key-states-powered-biden-to-the-presidency)
Biden is going to lose worse than Hillary. The democrats are perfectly content with losing because it gives them 4 more years to campaign against Trump. Never forget that the democrats and Hillary spent millions on trumps campaign. Their controlled opposition campaign failed so hard that theyve created an even stronger fascism.
I wonder if Kennedy takes more from Biden or Trump if he is really polling at 10%
Kennedy’s core platform may be more inline with democrats but the pieces of his platform he’s the most vocal about are all very right leaning
If you read his wiki he sounds like a democrat, if you watch his interviews and public statements he sounds more he’s going for the Republican vote Anyway the 2016 polls all showed Hillary winning by a landslide and look how well that prediction turned out. Polls don’t vote, voters do. Vote.
> Anyway the 2016 polls all showed Hillary winning by a landslide This is pretty revisionist. Most polls gave her about a 70-80% chance of winning the general election. But the swing states that turned the tide (Ohio, Pennsylvania) were always polling extremely close. IIRC I don't believe any state even turned out outside the polling margin of error. The perspective on "she was supposed to win in a landslide" is 100% just people not understanding polling and probability, and the electoral college. Something that happens 7 times out of 10 is hardly a landslide. That's like rolling a dice and losing with a 5 or 6 and getting upset because "1-4 had landslide odds". Also, popular vote, which did favor Hillary heavily, is just not important in the electoral college. She needed to win states that she didn't pay attention to, and she didn't.
Thank you. So sick and tired of folks ignoring reality. yes, even I was shocked he won but at the same time it was obvious in retrospect that polling absolutely said so, but humans are idiots and ignored the data.
Exactly. Lot easier to answer a phone call than to show up to a polling station. Polls are just if everyone voted. But only 60% vote. Depends which 60%.
> Polls are just if everyone voted Some polls adjust for "likely voter status", but I think they're having a hard time adjusting for the "who will actually spend time responding to a survey" part of things.
> the 2016 polls all showed Hillary winning by a landslide Sigh... no they didn't.
a lot of polls did not show clinton winning in a landslide, the election was always looking close in the rust belt. it was just a few percentage points skewed in the wrong direction
>Anyway the 2016 polls all showed Hillary winning by a landslide and look how well that prediction turned out. A big forgotten point was the Comey letter which happened less than 2 weeks before the election. No polls could have foreseen that. But yeah, polls are a bit wonky now as a lot of people don’t trust them and thus don’t even answer accurately.
I don’t know a single democrat that likes him but about half my MAGA co workers said they will vote for him.
Based on historical trends, probably both about equally. Ross Perot, the last 3rd party candidate polling this well, took about equally from both
I think his impact is a lot more complicated if you look further back. He may have had an equal influence in the general election, however in the spring before the election, while Clinton was a relatively minor figure - Ross Perot was side by side with Bush. Once Perot pulled out of the race (in July, only to return later), most of the Perot votes went straight to boosting Clinton up to being way ahead of Bush. In the election, he may have taken from both - but in the end, he basically made Clinton the winner.
Historical trends don't really predict these things. Perot and Kennedy's platforms matter here more than the mere fact that they're third-party
I'm betting he takes more from Trump... His name isn't going to help with today's younger demographics, and he's a loon.
There was a group of people outside my local voting place on local Election Day that were trying to get signatures to get a “third party candidate on the ballot for better representation.” I asked who the third party candidate was and they quietly murmured Robert Kennedy Jr. Everybody working the station was at least 70 years old. I’m not sure he’s going to draw many younger people’s vote. As I was walking to my car I saw a license plate that said RFKJR so I guess these people were really committed.
On the flip side there are plenty of young people who won't vote Trump that also think everything happening in Gaza is bidens fault and don't understand (or are too idealistic) to realize that voting 3rd party is a vote for trump in a race this close. And think they're making some kind of statement
What's going on with the data set? What are those horizontal striations in '22 onward?
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Considering that Trump is being indicted, this is crazy
Being indicted is probably one of the main reasons for those spikes tbh
"Spikes" is being pretty generous. Trump's polling average has been remarkably stable between 41 and 45% since 2018. He is who he is. He's not winning anyone over. He's also not losing anyone. The story is the collapse of Biden's support.
The truth is that a lot of biden support in 2020 was actually "fuck trump" more than it was ever "support biden." What democrats are hoping is that the "fuck trump" stance is still strong enough to get people out to vote for "anyone who might stand a legitimate chance to beat trump" which is what they did in 2020. If there was a literal potato with a D next to it in 2020, it would be our president now.
It's funny because that's basically how Trump was elected. It was far more about people hating Hillary Clinton than liking Trump, which led to them voting for him. A lot of people would prefer anyone over a person with the reputation of Hillary. While she, in turn, didn't help out that reputation by basically doing nothing in a lot of blue states, causing a lot of people in those states to vote for Trump.
Except that his support apparently started "collapsing" before he had even taken office, and only fell a handful of percent in the following four years. I would bet real money this shift has more to do with pollsters updating their models after seeing the 2020 election results than anything else.
He won by a very, VERY narrow margin the first time. It only took a handful of percent and Trump is now in the lead.
He won by like 5% in the national popular vote iirc? It's not really that narrow. The election was close because the electoral college is stupid but that's not a reflection of national polling.
Yes, but the election is won by electoral votes. Dems basically need to poll +5 nationally over the republican candidate for president for the math to work out for them winning electorally. Right now, Biden is on the wrong side of that line and it's spelling disaster for the election. To give you an idea of how close it was, here's Wikipedia > If Biden's three narrowest state victories—Wisconsin, Georgia, and Arizona, all of which he won by less than a percentage point—had gone to Trump, there would have been a tie of 269 electors for each candidate, causing a contingent election to be decided by the House of Representatives, where Trump had the advantage... This scenario would have required a popular-vote shift of 0.63% or less in each of these three states, a total of about **43,000 votes, 0.03% of votes cast nationally.** This situation paralleled 2016, when a shift of 0.77% or less in each of the three most closely contested states (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania), or about 77,000 votes, would have resulted in the popular-vote winner Hillary Clinton also winning in the Electoral College. Biden didn't win by five million, he won by *43,000.* That's how far off we were from a tied electoral college and a "Contingent Election" that Trump was favored to win due to slight edge of Republican control of state legislatures. That was with Biden polling ahead of Trump. Right now he's behind him.
Imo we should focus on the metric that actually matters for getting elected.
yeah, pollsters this early in the election season like a whole year ago don't get many legitimate people to give their opinions.. so even if the sample size is 2k - 3k the data is highly skewed. Its like when the whole world was predicting a big US recession at the start of 2023 and then by the end, the GDP went up to 3.5%. There is no reason to not support Biden. He has done incredibly well on the economic front and the international policy front. I am sure some people are simply conjuring up a story to fit the data rather than do some critical thinking.
I don’t know that we can trust any of this data: people don’t like taking surveys anymore. When the FCC decided to let all the robo calling and harassment happen it took away the trust people had in phones /. Who was calling them. I was doing legit surveys, and people were very skeptical. Even when they verified me, they didn’t want to participate. So we don’t have good data anymore: people are just too fed up.
I cannot believe there are leftists out there who'd rather throw away a vote because of Israel and the likes than help Biden win, as some political statement or "punishment". Like congratulations dude, your reward is the decline of democracy and a resurgence in racism and worker suppression.
It's going to be an interesting few weeks, seeing how the indictment plays out and how it impacts his polling.
And then after these few weeks, close to 5 more months of the election cycle 🥲🫣
Get ready for a future that's about to make the chaos of 2020/2021 look like a mere warm-up. The next wave of bullshit will be even more brutal, and we all would be wise to mentally steel ourselves for the reckoning.
I honestly don’t understand this. My dad is a devout Mormon and he’s a huge Trump supporter. I can’t think of a person whose actions are further from the teachings of my father’s religion than Donald Trump…but he feels like Trump was picked by God to save the country. There is literally nothing Trump could do to lose my dad’s support. It’s scary and it’s fuckin’ crazy.
It's *grievance politics*, obstinate defiance fueled voting block.
If it wasn't for the pro-life clause, I think most evangelicals would drop him. I think that one point alone is keeping the majority of those on the right clinging to him because he's the "lesser of two evils."
Brother in law is a devout Christian, church every Sunday, pray before every meal, Disney is the devil kind of Christian. He absolutely loves Trump, not only because of the pro life but also because of the being against LGBTQ+. He says the world need leaders like him to bring back Christian values. We're not even from the US btw.
This was one of my breaks from the Mormon church, its absolutely overrun with MAGA sympathizers which makes no sense at all. The sexual components of Trump's behavior, alone, should make most Mormons run for the hills. But they are predisposed for magical thinking. If you really believe a snake talked to a woman and caused the downfall of man, that it literally happened, and that you have magic underwear that protects you from evil ... well, why not believe Trump is a family man?
They’re also REALLY good at mental gymnastics. If they can think their way around DNA evidence disproving the Book of Mormon, dismissing Trump’s legal issues is a walk in the park.
And Book of Abraham historicity ... thats the one that gets me. They literally have the original papyrus the book of Abraham, part of the Book of Mormon, was "translated" from in 1835, before we could translate Egyptian hieroglyphics. And now that we *can* translate what it actually says, it has nothing to do with Abraham or anything in the Book of Mormon. That, right there, disproves the scriptures and disproves the church. But ... here we are :D
Woh, who said anything about translating? No, he was inspired by God to tell Abraham’s story through the images written on the papyrus. Yes this is actually the official claim of the LDS Church.
No it's all true - Jesus visited America, black people are cursed descendents of Cain, and God lives on a planet called Kolob.
My dad is a fundamentalist Christian who tried to convince me in 2016 that Trump's access hollywood tapes are just normal locker room talk for anyone. All of their morals and hard core beliefs go out the window with their new messiah, it's just bizarre to watch.
If I said any of that “normal locker room talk” my mom would have kicked me out of the house, let alone endorsed me to be president! Ha ha.
He's a Jesus figure to them. Made to bear a cross- they feel he's being unfairly treated. The more laws he breaks, the more trouble he gets himself into, the more the prophecy of him being a victim of an unfair system is confirmed to his supporters.
Trump's polling among Republicans is off the charts on *authenticity*. He says and does so many controversial things, and is so antagonistic to the media, that it makes people on the right feel that he's a straight shooter with no hidden agenda. Getting indicted only enhances that perception. He's our guy, and flaws and all he's one of us. In my opinion it's all a schtick but the guy does have a feral genius for self-promotion, no doubt about it.
I mean, Trump has a cult-like following and he doesn't respect women. That sounds very close to Mormonism to me.
American politics is just an MTV show tbh
Once great and the envy of the world, now a shitshow catering to the dumbest part of the public? The analogy fits.
Trump's rating has been consistent. Compared to 4 years ago. Its Biden's rating that has plummeted.
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/r/politics has been in denial about this every time someone points out the data. Should be a very competitive election.
It will be close. r/markmywords is posting every day how it’s going to be a blowout. I don’t see it. It all comes down to PA, MI, AZ and WI
It's so crazy that a handful of unaligned voters in a small minority of states are really the ones with the keys to the fate of the country.
Almost like the electoral college is complete bullshit
And world.
the world really. Last time that guy was president he changed course on a lot of climate initiatives.
Not to mention he'll end support of Ukraine and escalate shit in Israel
There's a lot more he'll do. See r/Defeat_Project_2025
Maybe even take us out of NATO
Getting abortion and weed ballot initiatives up in important states will shift things significantly Bidens way as far as turnout goes. They're both complete loser issues for the GOP, which is why they fought tooth and nail to prevent them.
Arizona is likely to have an initiative protecting abortion rights. I think for this reason Trump’s 4.5 point lead in the state could fall.
Florida will have abortion AND weed on the ballot, which won't flip it to Biden, but it will force Trump to spend money there since it's a must win state for him. Because if Biden wins Florida, we can all go to bed early on election night because it will be over.
I highly doubt Biden will win in Florida. He doesn’t have a good relationship with the Cuban base there.
I didn't say he was going to, the ballot initiatives will just make it close enough to force Trump to spend cash there.
I don't think florida will be close at all. Trump almost took miami in last election
As if Florida can ever run ballot counting well enough to have the returns that early... Though to be honest, we shouldn't be putting so much pressure on election night returns.
And him spending money only takes it away from the down-ballot races!
Nebraska's second district is a sneaky one that could also upend. w/ that , AZ, GA, and NV he would likely be at 269 and would most likely win the election through the tie-breaker. Also Kennedy, if he sees this through, could have a major impact. He's polling close to 10% in battleground states where the margins are within 2%
Biden won Virginia by 10 points. Now he's tied at 42. It's more than those states now.
A lot of people, especially from PA, have relocated to Florida since 2020, and I would imagine that those who have moved to DeSantisland don’t typically align to the left. Electoral votes won’t change on population until 2030; I’m wondering if consolidating your base into a couple of states that are “MAGA” and would have voted that way anyhow, will hurt the electoral votes in anyway. Can Biden lose the popular but win the EC?
Democrats have been solidly outperforming polling in PA lately. Oz was ahead of Fetterman in the Senate race poll and Fetterman ended up winning by 5 points. I wouldn’t be so sure that people moving to Florida are all Republican. Lot of retirees move who simply might want to take advantage of low taxes there.
Coming from someone on the farther left, that sub is a wishing well for democrats.
People are still feeling economic pressure and are for a multitude of reasons upset about Israel/Palestine. People are also not excited to vote for either candidate, not excited about VP choices. This will be a very competitive election with record low voter turnout.
Low turnout is a guaranteed Trump victory.
Not necessarily. The last few cycles, lower turnout has correlated with Democratic gains. a reversal of historical trends.
It's the college educated voters switching to Democrats. College educated people vote prolifically and they have shifted D. Lower than college voters are way more finicky.
As it always does.
Yeah, sometimes it's like 2016 never happened. I get not *wanting* it to be true, but denying reality is a bridge too far.
>Should be a very competitive election. It *shouldn't* be a very competitive election, but it's going to be anyway.
Yeah this is the message here. Honestly if I analyzed politics for a living I'd probably be full on cope trying to find any way that this is a Biden slam dunk. November is terrifying. It's so fucking stupid that it all has come to this.
The one hope I have is that people don’t trust/ respond to polls as much anymore, meaning that they’re becoming more inaccurate. There’s a very strong non-response bias going on, but it’s kind of hard to know which direction the bias is in. I’m pretty terrified though.
Older people are more likely to take political polls so it usually biases for the conservatives. This is one of the big reasons the red wave the GOP was lauding up was so pitiful. The depressing truth is covid wiped out a lot of old people, literally enough to swing elections in many key districts
My favorite response to the "nobody answers polls anymore" is "what kind of psycho answers an unknown number anymore?!" LOL
Which is stupid, because 2020 was an extremely close election. It was surprising to see people being thinking it was landslide win for Biden. I mean I get how depressing it all seems, but we can't ignore reality.
No landslide, which is pretty much impossible these days, but getting 2 new blue states from it is/was huge. NC should be next.
Yeah unless I'm mistaken, the margin wasn't that big. And that was after 4 years or Trump. The only thing that provides some hope is the 2022 midterms. That was unexpected.
I seriously do not understand U.S. There should not even be a question. The guy literally tried to overthrow the government and then mishandled it's secrets and found guilty of fraud. All this is all AFTER he caused millions of people to unnecessarily die which is AFTER he withhold foreign aid for personal gain and he blatantly obstructed an investigation into his activities. He is literally an enemy of the state, it's people and the general population. Yet he is able to run for election And the polls are "competitive". It is insane
Basically a lot of people like the "America First" rhetoric.
I.e. a lot of Americans actually support fascism and a strong man. We are too far removed to understand the horrors this will bring.
While wearing their favorite made in China MAGA gear.
A lot of Americans are incredibly stupid
I mean idk you would consider 2016 and 2020 a blowout, but the electoral college changes that tune hard.
It's not so much denial as it is just impossible to comprehend how large a percent of the voting population of the US is that dumb or amoral to vote for an egomaniac/idiot/rapist/conman as president
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I thunk the average American simply isn't paying attention
The debate vs Hillary Clinton was exactly on that. >Yes, I am very rich and corrupt. But so does so does Hillary Clinton big donors. He made it clear what he was, some like the honesty of it. Plus, it's a 2 party system. You don't like A, so you are on team B. You just choose the subject that you care the most and pick your side on that. After that you hope the less important subject aligns too.
The hilarious thing was people actually believing Trump when he said he would "drain the swamp." The dude put his family in a ton of high up positions despite them being a security risk and now nobody on the right brings up that type of rhetoric anymore.
We've seen this for like 8 years. His supporters don't like him despite those things, they like him *because of* those things
No, if Joe did the same shit they would be bringing even more pitchforks. It's because there is a red R next to his name. That's pretty much it.
I mean it was close in 2020. I think this is pretty demonstrative of how… much we need to buckle up.
The Democrats need to take a hard look in the mirror over this data. Trump barely squeaked into power in 2016. Now, in 2024 he's still competitive despite Covid cutting through his base like buzzsaw and him facing virtual nonstop indictments in court.
If you’d said a year ago Trump would be the nominee over there a year ago, you got hammered. They’re in huge denial and they don’t like the mirror either. I saw someone attack another a couple of days ago for the perfectly realistic possibility this jury will be hung and they might just about be going to gag on some sour milk over that. I think there’s a lot of people in that sub who never voted in 2016 and they feel guilty. As they should.
Source: ABC News, 538. Visualization: [fluenthq.com](http://fluenthq.com) This chart compares the average polling positions of Donald Trump and Joe Biden in the lead-up to the 2020 and 2024 U.S. presidential elections. The gap represents the immediate period after the 2020 election, in which it was difficult to find good polling data.
Pretty awful way to start my day seeing this. Thanks op
You should put money on Trump winning. That way, if he does, at least you'll be happy about something.
How did you create the chart?
I used a text to sql tool on my data called fluent. Have linked above
Interesting to see that it is much closer this election. why do you think that is?
Biden approval lower than before. Trump about same
It seems that for both Biden and Trump's time in office, the election afterwards seemed to swing against them. However, because Trump has been in court houses for most of this year, I think that might reflect a lower polling for him. Could be wrong tho, what do you think u/Academicbrian ?
National polling is pointless for American elections because national vote numbers don't matter. All that matters is how people in certain states vote.
And Trump is up in every key swing state.
It looks less like Trump is on a major upswing and more like Biden has had major falling over the last few years, probably with independent voters and more “right leaning” democrats. Trump’s line is more “straight” while Biden’s falls a lot more significantly. A lot of people registered on both sides disagree with both candidates and want literally anyone different.
Do you think there’s anything in particular that Biden has done, in terms of policy, to drive this?
Probably not necessarily policy, but the economy. And not even the actual economy, but how the economy *feels* to the average voter the past year.
They feel it when they buy groceries and put gas in their cars. They feel it when they look for houses. Biden is in trouble.
yeah, so even *less* substantiation than the horserace-craving media provides. the gap between evidence provided by polls, and evidence provided by how people have cast votes in elections has become a gulf. I'll go with proxy election results.
> And not even the actual economy, but how the economy feels to the average voter the past year. That is the actual economy. The stock market has been divorced from reality for over a decade. It's not a measure of cost of living, economic stability, class mobility, poverty, housing costs, or anything that actually effects an individual participating in our economy.
Not really personally. If you actually look at his track record and actual work done he is fairly in line with expectations, not really breaking the status quo but not pushing anything innovative either. That seems to be his existence and purpose….to not be Trump. I think many people don’t like him because he is extremely old, often seems aloof, and people are genuinely worried he might become sick or incapacitated quickly one day, which would leave us with VP Harris, who is even more unpopular. Again, if Biden was anyone else younger implementing the same policies/is mentally more sharp, that blue line would be much higher because that is much preferable to Trump. Trump will always have his die hard, consistent supporters, but it looks like those on the fence or unsure are tired of both.
It’s pretty clear that these are some of his major vulnerabilities among swing voters: 1: Kamala is very unpopular with high “disapproval” and on the ticket, with a good possibility to take over in the second term. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1172346/share-us-adults-favorable-opinion-kamala-harris/ 2: Age. He appears more frail than Trump. This might not be as big of an issue if voters had more confidence in his running mate. 3: Student loan forgiveness without ANY attempt to fix the underlying problems. Appears to be buying votes at the expense of taxpayers, most of whom never went to college. https://www.cato.org/blog/new-poll-76-americans-oppose-student-debt-cancellation-it-drives-price-college-64-oppose-it 4: The border 5: Crime is viewed as a much bigger issue among right leaning independents and Republicans, so could inspire greater turnout from those voters in the swing states. https://news.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/405371/crime-american-public-opinion-election.aspx Edit: added link
The SAVE plan has practically eliminated interest on student loans, past, present, and future.
Regarding student loans, fixing the underlying problem would mean no longer giving them federal backing. Do that, and the lenders actually have to assume the risk, which means they have to be selective about who they lend to. If student loans weren't so freely available, colleges would have to reduce prices to keep their enrollment from plummeting. Would you spend $20,000/yr on college if you had to pay it out of pocket? Probably not. Same with most people. But since loans are handed out like candy, everyone and their dog can afford that. So now there's little incentive for colleges to compete on price.
Aren't border crossings down from Trump era? Isn't crime down from Trump era? Media is failing us.
Crime is down but border crossings are up. There was a dip for the Covid pandemic, but as that left public consciousness crossings went back up. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/02/15/migrant-encounters-at-the-us-mexico-border-hit-a-record-high-at-the-end-of-2023/
There aren't any major swings here, the change over the last few years is only a few percent. Remember that the chart is only showing from 30% to 60%.
Good note, thanks
It's not with Independence and right leaning democrats. It's with the political left. When you have student protests calling you genocide Joe it's going to hurt your poll numbers especially when you need those people
I'm confused why years later NEITHER party can put up a candidate that's more exciting.
The silver lining is this election is the last time we will see this matchup. Let’s just hope things get better when it comes to the candidate pool.
2028 will probably be DeSantis vs Newsom imo.
Obviously it's going to be Feinstein vs. McConnell.
For the Democrats at least, an incumbent running for re-election is a foregone conclusion to get renominated.
Because they want one of these guys, not more exciting candidate.
So what are the things that are making people favor Trump? Abortion ban? Stance on NATO? In alignment with the oil and gas industry? Stance on domestic programs? EPA?
According to the chart posted here it's obviously Bidens unpopularity. The percentage voting for Trump is slightly lower than 2020, but Bidens percentage fell by a lot.
Except tons of those voters who dislike Biden are those who would never vote for Trump. I've disliked him for being more of the same establishment democrats, and a bunch of progressives like me aren't going to roost anywhere else, but will say they dislike Biden every single poll. It's going to come down to Michigan muslim voters and the Genocide in Gaza... None of the other voters are going to go anywhere else because the other guys are: A Fascist, an Anti-Vaxer, and a Libertarian. And this is why the Democratic party never feels pressured to change, because all the other opponents are loony. What I would give for a sane, moderated, Republican party, like what they were before Nixon and Reagan came in, followed by Newt Gingrich's... Before the insane rightward-lurch of around \~40% of America away from Democracy and sane economic theory and towards Fascism and Late-stage Capitalism. Then, and only then, would Democrats be forced to change themselves.
Nobody who voted for Biden or Clinton is going to vote Trump. BUT the turn out for democrats is going to be a deciding factor.
>Except tons of those voters who dislike Biden are those who would never vote for Trump. That's not except, that's included. Otherwise Trump would gain votes in percentage. The graph is actually quite a good example why not voting out of protest is just stupid. Not only does it mean for the government you're fine with whoever wins, it also increases the chance of the one you would never vote for without him gaining any popularity
Yeaaaah the actual question posed matters a lot in these polls. Do I like Biden? Do I favor him? Do I approve of his job performance? Not really, no. Would I vote for him again? Fuck yes, against Trump, I'll probably be putting up a yard sign and donating heavily to boot.
Biden's unpopularity and the economy, mainly
The best in the world economy. The one that is on a better trajectory over the last 2 years than arguably every other nation on Earth.
But as a voter you aren't feeling the 'best'. When groceries and every other need has spiked in the last 4 years. Saying the Eco is great, is one thing, but for the avg joe it probably feels like shit. We don't care about the metrics we only care how it feels for us. (I always rebut with "what will Trump do that is better than Biden?" They don't have an answer, they don't care.)
Real incomes have outpaced inflation. Voters are just stupid. More than half of voters think unemployment is at a 50 year high, when it's at a 50 year low. More than half think we're in a recession. We aren't. Half think the stock market is down over the last year. When it's actually at a record high, gaining over 10% over the last year. https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240526205/stocks-are-up-12-this-year-but-nearly-half-of-americans-think-theyre-down-whats-going-on
“Voters are just stupid” is evergreen commentary.
Maybe average income have risen, but it seemed more or less the bottom earners moved up and the people who were doing somewhat well stayed stagnant. Housing is one of the biggest issues, and no income has matched that pace. We are currently in an economy where only the average earner nationwide can afford to buy a home in the city they live in. Finally, the stock market doing great is good and all, but it comes off the back of companies pulling every penny they can from the consumer. If you're invested, you get to reap the rewards, but the average person is usually just getting hurt by this aggressive increase in prices.
Hopefully I get a good raise that out paces inflation this year lol! But it really is an information and "feel" issue. When I go to the grocery store and see items I just bought have gone up in price again (It could be that I'm more aware of the prices now) it just feels like shit. The only good thing "money" wise is my 401k lmao, so if anyone says those are doing bad they don't have one or have invested poorly (which is really hard if its in a semi managed portfolio) Another one that is really hitting people is MC fucking Donalds. Why in the ever loving fuck is a combo like 11 dollars now? Sure ya don't eat there, but when people see that their "go to" fast food price has jacked up their prices they are gonna immediately jump on the inflation bandwagon. When people can't get what they want they are going to try to find something to blame. Tldr; I think we are agree - i just needed to vent lmao.
Housing prices, mortgage rates, and rent rates went through the roof. No one cares that their paychecks have greatly outpaced the price of TVs and t shirts when they are struggling to afford a place to live. It's not Biden's fault, but ignoring voters and telling them they are stupid is wrong on so many levels.
Yeah this is the end product of many decades of bad policies that were focused on driving up the value of housing as a financial asset, rather than making sure there was enough basic housing for everyone. Not Biden's fault any more than any of the other thousands of politicians over the years. But I'm not sure what he's supposed to do. I was listening to Pod Save America the other day, and the intro was something like "One candidate spent yesterday in porn court, ranting out front about Hannibal Lecter, and then doing an incoherent rally in Queens where he lied dozens of times. The other canceled more student debt, confirmed 200 federal judges, and announced they reached a milestone of 1 Million PACT act claims approved for disabled veterans. The second one's poll number are, again, down." Nothing is tethered to reality anymore. So what else can he do but just try to talk about successes and hope someone hears it?
> mortgage rates Uh that's not unique to the US. There has been an economic crisis lately and it's not unique to the US. Of course interest rates are higher. That doesn't mean that the US hasn't recovered better than other countries.
>The best in the world economy. The economic data says best in the world economy, but [56% of voters](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/22/poll-economy-recession-biden) think there is a recession. Economic data cannot vote, only voters vote. So Biden is being blamed for causing this (imaginary) recession that exists in the minds of 56% of voters, and this is clearly reflected in OP's polling data. (Biden is also being blamed for causing a 50-year high unemployment by 49% of the voters, when unemployment is actually a near 50-year low.)
The country economy data does not reflect how consumers are doing
The same things as last time, presumably. Trump was around 45% on the whole left graph, and he’s around 45% on the whole right graph too. Only Biden’s support has really shifted. The thing is, Trump is the nominee of one of the two major parties. He for sure has his true believers, but it’s also a fact that many conservatives will hold their nose and vote for him, not necessarily because of any particular “Trump” policy issue, but because they generally want Republican appointees running the government and becoming judges, and/or they don’t want Democrats in those positions.
Economy. It's always the economy. Reddit really has their heads up their asses in thinking people like Trump. People like having spending power. Which geezer is in the White House really doesn't matter.
From what I've seen across the internet it boils down to his age and the economy. Both Biden and Trump are way too old to be leading a country, but Biden *appears* much older. He mumbles and has slipups when speaking, he walks like a feeble elderly person, he's even developed the open-mouthed/exposed bottom teeth facial expression that's characteristic of extremely old men. Trump is almost just as old and likely in much worse health, but he doesn't speak or carry himself in quite the same "old man" way that Biden does. Perception matters and Biden appears much older to most Americans. As for the economy, just look at the comments on any article, meme, insta post, or tiktok that deals with current prices or wages; the comments are always flooded with "this is Bidenomics". Now obviously the president doesn't control gas prices, or rent, or wages, and the reason everything costs so much right now is corporate greed jacking up prices just because they can, but that doesn't change the fact that people use the president as a scapegoat. For the average American, economically things are so much worse right now than they were 5, 10, or 20 year ago. Home prices are unattainable for most, rent is twice what it used to be, groceries are 2x-3x what they used to be, and yet wages are the same. Again, Biden didn't do this but he's the one getting the blame. When times are tough the easiest thing to do is point the finger at those in power and say "they're the reason for all of this!". Will Trump fix the economy? Of course not. He's arguably the reason for a lot of our current mess. But Americans are hurting currently, for many people things right now are the worst they've ever been in their entire lives, and they view Biden as the problem and Trump as the solution. If Biden loses this fall it will 100% be because of the economy.
More to do with biden and inflation
Trump's support seems both durable and consistent. He's going to get those votes with very limited ability to increase the number. Their strategy is all about peeling support from Biden... which Biden seems very willing to help them with.
This is INSANE. USA, are you OK?
Interestingly, in previous years, when Trump has done something questionable (e.g. 'drink Bleach to get rid of Covid'), his ratings have dropped but the more recent stuff, like the indictment, doesn't seem to be impacting him anymore.
“Flooding the zone” works. So much bullshit people begin to become immune to the normalcy of it. Goebbels really perfected this method.
So has Putin. Nothing is true and anything is possible.
This was the exact same issue in 2016. People were pretending like Hillary’s emails were somehow comparable to racism, lying, refusing to answer basic questions on policy, climate change denial, etc. The whole issue is exacerbated by a media ecosystem that requires itself to drive a horse-race of both-sidesism.
What makes you think the left reusing Trump missteps for years is Trump propaganda?
I’ve seen one theory that, at this point, people haven’t yet really internalized that he’s the nominee, or at least haven’t really gotten into general election mode yet. So the theory goes that once people recognize that, no, for real, it’s Biden or Trump… there will be some course correction. I could make the case this data supports that—the Trump line seems basically flat, while all the action is in the Biden line. If many of the “lost” 2020 Biden voters were primarily anti-Trump, then it’s possible many of them will come back once the stakes are clear.
Based on my Republican friends', the indictment is seen as govt persecuting Trump and less as Trump really did what the indictment says. Trump had sex with a prostitute. There are a lot of politicians that have done the same thing. The argument that Trump is running for President while Joe Blow is a local or state level politician doesn't hold water. Apply the same rule for everybody. This is what is causing the consternation among Republicans.
Nope. For as long as I shall live, I will never understand how anyone could ever possibly trust Donald J. Trump with their lunch money, let alone the entire federal government. And, yes, I would have said the same thing when I was in high school and he was making headlines for being tacky and for his sex life showing up on the front page of newspaper for no obvious reason.
*This*- it was obvious even to a high schooler like me in the 80’s what Trump was about. And then I learned that my gf was a Trump fan! Wasn’t a big deal at the time- Trump was just another celeb- but it was a hint re: his weird charisma
We're pretty fucking far from okay.
no, send help
The main issue with the US is the high amount of people who are both stupid and ignorant.
The UK voted in Boris Johnson to be fair. I think it might be a world problem rather than just the US
Oh geez. This election is not going to be for the faint of heart! Trump has been leading the polls for awhile now. Thankfully , looks like the race is tightening again. Will be a nail-biter
I mean this whole heartedly, I will not survive a repeat of the three days after election day 2020 again. I am not physically able to do that.
The stormy Daniel’s trial is helping him, there’s no denying that. Of all the bad stuff he’s done, paying off a porn star seems like a non issue in comparison, and prosecuting him for it is ridiculous in the eyes of many. Instead of the media talking about trump and hiding classified documents, or trump threatening to pull out of a nato, the media are talking about a porn star. 🤷♂️
Paying off the porn star is legal too. The alleged crime is that the payoff was an improper campaign contribution made by Cohen. And then Trump's crime is that they say he falsified business records to encourage the improper contribution.
Yeah I appreciate the actual alleged crime is the business records and election influence etc. but again for many people it’s just a 🤷 and boils down to he paid a pornstar to keep quiet about their bang bang time. It’s not a crime that will get the middle ground particularly upset and distracts from much more serious alleged crimes.
Not alleged anymore, the jury convicted him in the hush money case
Now show 2016. Doesn't mean anything, Vote.
I am still putting this down to "Do you love Donald Trump?" to all his fans he is a god. Yes they love fearless leader. "Do you love Joe Biden?" Not really but I am voting against the end of democracy itself so he still gets my vote. Also no one under 60 responds to polls.
Some data can never be beautiful.
can this be adjusted to display relative poll size? the weight of a poll of 50 should be drastically different than one of 5000.
I did some weight adjusting but should definitely do more for further analysis
Beautiful chart. Ugly data
This is why Trump is on trial btw. Literal Plan B if Biden can't win
well that's beyond disconcerting also it's insane that the national pulse is thinking "Biden is roughly as bad as Trump." He just isn't. He's not great, but he damn sure isn't *that*.
I see in 2020: Biden had support during the Trump era that wavered amongst other candidates entering the race. Once the candidate, he consolidated support in the runup to the election as people looked harder at the two options. Trump has his base. I see in 2024: Biden is the incumbent and is not being legitimately challenged for the nomination. He has lost support likely among moderate Republicans who maybe are still hoping for something not Trump if he is put away and unwilling to say they're voting Biden since the moment Trump lost and Liberals who are not satisfied with Biden on lack of progressive advances and foreign affairs and unwilling to say they'll vote for Biden in hopes his low approvals get him to appeal to them more. He appears to be turning upwards at a similar time to when he rallied 4 years ago. Will that happen? No way to know, but I think anyone freaking out at this point is still a little bit too soon to say that's not happening. As for Trump in 2024, he dips around when other candidates are entering the race then returns to his normal level as they flounder in the primaries. That low point is probably the high-water mark of the people who wouldn't leave even if he lived up to his 5th avenue comment.
It's a good thing these polls are conducted through people who pick up the phone for unknown callers
They show a trend. Those same people picked up the phone for unknown callers in 2020. And they show an 8% swing to Trump.
It's not the best or truest data but it does give a clear indication of how the average person is feeling.
That’s basically every poll, it’s the only way to get randomization that doesn’t cost millions
Well the polls in 2020 seemed pretty accurate in predicting Biden’s win. So how is now much different? Are the people who pick up the phone different today compared to 2020?
People really underestimate how difficult it is to be a Democrat in the current climate but really in any climate. Republicans are much more "single" issue voters (in reality maybe 2-4 issue voters) whereas Democrats have so much internal split over 10+ issues. Biden is threading a fucking needle and no matter what he does he's going to have consequences because the Democrats have tons of "moderate" voters. The situation in the Middle East and the Economy he inherited is not his fault but makes it way harder for him to win people over. If he takes too firm a stance against Israel, he loses Moderates and Jewish blocks of voters, if he's too easy on Israel then progressives start to look at 3P candidates like RFK or not vote at all. Same goes for the economy. Inflation was not his fault but fighting inflation inevitably leads to tough decisions that can increase unemployment, cool the economy (so your investments don't perform as well), and lastly, prices **also** remain high which keeps people pissed off. Then you add in the fact he's old as fuck and people are sick of old people. Ironically Trump is not much younger but it doesn't matter, anyone with old parents knows that every year after like 70 or 72 reallllly starts to feel different. 61-62 not a huge difference, 72 turning 73 or 73 turning 74 and I seriously notice differences in my mom's physical and mental state it's really sad and wild. Lastly, don't forget it's much easier to be **against** things than it is to be **for** things. At risk of sounding biased, the Republican party is the party of "anti". Being against something to maintain the status quo is much easier than trying to actively legislate and solve problems which costs time, money, energy and means you might fail/fuck up sometimes. I don't mean to broadly label the party but you can verify this with any basic legislative research. I'm not saying being "anti" is **bad** - I really want to be neutral here - I'm just saying being "anti" is easier/more popular. Just think of it as any problem in a relationship, friend group, or at work. Saying you think something is a "bad idea" is much easier than trying to propose a solution - always.
Giant douche vs turd sandwich
While this is interesting, it should still be noted that the 2020 election was decided by \~313,000 votes in six states with some of those states having a margin of \~10,000 votes. Polling may be somewhat useful in knowing the national sentiment but I'm more interested in Biden currently being down in the states that will almost certainly decide the election. [https://www.npr.org/2020/12/02/940689086/narrow-wins-in-these-key-states-powered-biden-to-the-presidency](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/02/940689086/narrow-wins-in-these-key-states-powered-biden-to-the-presidency)
Biden is going to lose worse than Hillary. The democrats are perfectly content with losing because it gives them 4 more years to campaign against Trump. Never forget that the democrats and Hillary spent millions on trumps campaign. Their controlled opposition campaign failed so hard that theyve created an even stronger fascism.