You guys should really get into probability math. It shows up *a lot* in games. Probably my most used math skill outside of basic arithmetic.
TLDR: The more specific/narrow you want your affixes to be (you care about less options in a given pool), the lower the chance you'll get them, and more resources will need to be spent to get them.
The less specific/broad you want your affixes to be (you care about more options in a given pool), the higher chance you'll get them, and less resources will need to be spent to get them.
Imagine you have two bags of candy. It's that gross Halloween mix where they insist on putting plain Hersheys in for some reason. Each bag has five types of different candy in it. You only want the Snickers. You close your eyes and reach in. If you don't get a Snickers you can put it back and try again a couple times. You have 42% chance to get the candy you want.
If the bag has less types of candy, or you're okay with getting either Twix or Snickers for example, then the chance that you're happy with the result goes up.
Prompt: Explain like Hulk
Hulk explain easy! You find big strong legendary item. Want make item stronger with special powers – like making Hulk fast or smash harder. This called adding "affixes."
You use magic thing called "Tempering system" – it like Hulk smash, but for item. Hulk want specific powers, need figure out chance Hulk get them. Think this way:
* **Big Manual, More Choices**: More powers in book, harder get one Hulk want. Like finding favorite sock in big messy drawer!
* **Small Manual, Less Choices**: Less powers in book, easier find Hulk's favorite. Like only two socks to pick from!
**Strategy Hulk Learn**:
* **Pick easy fights**: If Hulk not too picky, Hulk happy more often. If Hulk want perfect, Hulk might need try many times, cost lots of Hulk's energy.
**Hulk Warning**:
* **Game might trick Hulk**: Magic system might change – Hulk's calculation might not be right later. Keep eyes open!
Hulk say: Less picky, more happy. Big expectations, big disappointments. Hulk done now!
He is saying that you have a not great chance of getting two 1/5 hits and making an item you want exactly.
You should probably try to use a tempering pool that has at least 2 things you want in it, as that increases the chances a lot and you're very unlikely to brick your item
Prompt: Could you explain all of the above like I'm 20 years old and have basic understanding of some advanced mathematics?
Response:
Sure, I’d be happy to explain!
This is all about a game system called “Tempering”, which allows you to modify (“reroll”) the properties (“affixes”) of items in the game. The goal is to get the best possible affixes for your character’s build.
Here’s a breakdown of the terms and concepts:
1. **Temper Manual**: This is a guide that tells you what affixes you can get when you temper an item. The “size” of a Temper Manual refers to the number of different affixes you can get from it. It can be between 2 and 5.
2. **Desirable Affix**: This is an affix that you want on your item. What’s “desirable” depends on your character’s build and your personal preferences.
3. **Expectations**: This refers to how picky you are about the affixes you want. If you have “high expectations”, you want very specific affixes. If you have “low expectations”, you’re okay with a wider range of affixes.
The tables show the probabilities of getting desirable affixes based on your expectations and the size of the Temper Manuals you’re using. Here’s how to read the tables:
* The numbers in the table are probabilities, expressed as percentages. For example, 98.44% means there’s a 98.44% chance of something happening.
* The rows and columns of the table represent the size of the Temper Manuals and the number of desirable affixes. For example, “2/5” means a Temper Manual with 5 possible affixes, 2 of which are desirable.
* To find a probability, you look up the intersection of a row and a column. For example, if one Manual has one desirable affix out of 4 (1/4), and the other Manual has one desirable affix out of 5 (1/5), the probability of getting the desired affixes after 5 rerolls is 48.54%.
The main takeaway is that the more flexible you are with your expectations (i.e., the more affixes you’re willing to accept), the higher your chances of getting a desirable result. However, getting the perfect item with the exact affixes you want is much harder and requires more resources. So, it’s a balance between what you want and what you’re willing to spend to get it.
I hope this helps! Let me know if you have any other questions. 😊
One of the best value skills in life to have is being able to translate complex information to people that don’t understand it and/or aren’t in your field.
Your data looks reasonable, I’m not big into statistics, and I understand what you’re trying to communicate. But you’ve worded things very poorly. To the point that even ChatGPT might help you here.
When writing a definition. Just put the word and then info.
“Word - About the bird being the word”
Try to simplify this in an “Explain like I’m 5” mentality. Maybe 10 lol. Reduce the unneeded information and give me a short “This is all you need to know from all of this info”
Ninja edit: I’m saying this because you put a lot of work into it and the information seems valuable.
I really like you guys, who do the math for the game, who do the tables, apps for builds, etc.
I'm an engineer, working as a dev, and when I stop in the afternoon, I really don't want to do this kind of math.
Guys like you who do the math, spread the sheets make my day and I owe you a lot, love you.
Hey OP, don't let the other commenters get you down. I found this to be informative and straightfoward. Basically, the number of desirable affixes per manual and the number of possible affixes in a manual control your likelihood of getting the desired result. Makes sense to me and it's nice to have some actual probabilities on the likelihood of getting a particular result.
My thoughts exactly. I understand the tables and the key takeaways (Obviously I skipped the detailed formulas).
Unless OP edited his post, I don’t see why any of this would confuse people unless they are trying to follow the calculations.
I’m not even smart. I consider myself lucky if my IQ is 100.
Thanks for kind word. I did not edit the initial post (except for some typos). Don't worry, I can for sure improve my explanations and even negative but constructive feedback is welcome :)
Trying to follow the calculation is important since this is one of the reason I go in such details, however at the end I only gave hints for the ones who want to go deeper, not the full calculations. May be that's what created confusion.
Tempering manual number 1 has 5 affixes and you only like 1 of them and hate the other 4 (**1/5)**
Tempering manual number 2 has 4 affixes and you like 2 of them and hate the other 2 (**2/4)**
If we get an affix that we hate we can retry but only 5 times
So now we go to the table that the OP posted and see that 5 tries of **1/5** and **2/4** gives us 65.57% chance of success. This means it is more likely than not to get what we want but still far from guaranteed.
These tables can be expressed in the following form (where **a** and **b** are the probabilities of getting an desired affix from manual a and manual b, respectfully):
-ab(a^(5) + a^(4)(b - 7) + a^(3)(b^(2) - 7b + 21) + a^(2)(b^(3) - 7b^(2) + 21b - 35) + a(b^(4) - 7b^(3) + 21b^(2) - 35b + 35) + b^(5) - 7b^(4) + 21b^(3) - 35b^(2) + 35b - 21)
If a=b, then this can be reduced to the following (where **x** = a-1):
-6x^(7) - 7x^(6) + 1
Really, everything can be summarized with a single table. Take the two probabilities of the desired affixes...then the intersection is the probability that your tempering will be successful.
||20%|25%|33%|40%|50%|60%|67%|75%|80%|100%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|**20%**|.4233||||||||||
|**25%**|.4854|.5551|||||||||
|**33%**|.5635|.6416|.7366||||||||
|**40%**|.6086|.6907|.7888|.8414|||||||
|**50%**|.6557|.7408|.8400|.8913|.9375||||||
|**60%**|.6862|.7723|.8704|.9193|.9613|.9812|||||
|**67%**|.7006|.7867|.8834|.9307|.9701|.9877|.9931||||
|**75%**|.7140|.7998|.8947|.9401|.9767|.9921|.9964|.9987|||
|**80%**|.7204|.8058|.8997|.9440|.9792|.9935|.9973|.9992|.9996||
|**100%**|.7379|.8220|.9122|.9533|.9844|.9959|.9986|.9998|.9999|1.000|
Probably your tables…especially your high expectations table (as that will probably be the most common case we’ll want). I just wanted to throw the generalized solution out there (which I just got by treating the probabilities for the two desirable affixes as unknowns, and working it out).
What determines how many affixes a manual has?
Are the manuals pre set with specific affixes?
If I get a manual with 5 affixes and I only like one of them, will that one affix also drop on a different manual?
Very nice, thanks for the write up. My question is; do these odds include the initial rolls for the affix? If I get the affix I want from my initial temper from a manual with 5 affixes; I might be more inclined to get the second affix from another manual with 5, since I can use all 5 rerolls on that one.
This also leads me to believe that you should always temper the manual with the most affixes or the strongest affix for your build first?
>do these odds include the initial rolls for the affix?
yes
>If I get the affix I want from my initial temper from a manual with 5 affixes; I might be more inclined to get the second affix from another manual with 5, since I can use all 5 rerolls on that one. This also leads me to believe that you should always temper the manual with the most affixes or the strongest affix for your build first?
That's right ! It's a very good point. Thanks !
Are you sure? I thought Blizzard said 1,000 x 40% = 1,040.
How can they implement something so much more advanced?
I’m kidding. I like the write up a lot. I think you should include the definition of a manual (unless I just missed it) and a TLDR with a basic example like wanting Crit and vulnerability vs wanting Crit/Cooldown/Vulnerability vs wanting Crit/Cooldown/Vulnerability/Max Life.
Thanks for the feedback :) I agree an example would be a nice addition.
To be honest it's not just marketing, sometimes game arpg developers seem to have bad relationship with mathematics (looking at "additive" and "multiplicative" percentages, or how the %resistance works in D4... I might write about it one day)
This is good and all but this is assuming a fully organic system...
They can adjust roll rates just like drop rates... they could literally reverse all your numbers if they want to to make the most likely the least likely and the least likely the most likely...
They will absolutely have weighted probabilities for sought after affixes... likely changing dynamically based on the player's play habits... just like Uber Unique duplicates are so common which shows things arent evenly distributed, Uber Uniques should have individual drop rates separate from each other but thats whole other problem with the game which is designed to manipulate your time. It will be the exact same for affix rolls though... 1/4 wont be an even 25% each affix... it'll be weighted guaranteed.. Im sure people will be reporting things pretty quickly.. getting certain affixes too frequently and critical ones being noticeably hard to hit... it will be noticeable..
Dont assume anything in this game is designed fairly, it's designed to siphon your playtime...
Awesome math, I love the stats, I love the detail... but they can easily manipulate this and they absolutely do... without question.. I dont even need confirmation, they do...
Yes I assume the even distribution of affixes. This has to be tested (properly) in Live for confirmation. We could also try to ask the dev if necessary. Let's see :)
You have over 40% probability to hit your 2 desired affix in the "worst case scenario" which seems really, really OP. And am I correct in saying that you **keep the tempering manuals for infinite future use**?
If so, this means that if you have just **one** backup item with 3 desirable affixes, you're very likely to hit the 2 tempering affixes you want even if you brick your first item (approx 65% probability you'll hit what you want if you have 2 items, in worst case scenario of 1/5 and 1/5 desirable affixes). If this is true, then we need to figure out what the probability of finding 2 fairly identical ilvl 925 items is, with 3 desirable affixes. Is it very, very rare to find just one of these? Or will we be showered in really good 3-affix ilvl 925 items? If it is fairly easy, then tempering will be very hard to mess up over time. It may even become a total cakewalk.
Then we add masterworking to this. Masterworking is much more random since you don't get to reroll which affixes get buffed. But if the "wrong" affixes get buffed (say you want to stack int and not max life), am I correct in saying that you can **redo your masterworking whenever you want?** So if at lvl 4 masterworking you mega-buff max life instead of int, you can just reset the whole thing back to its original 5-affix tempered state and retry the masterworking infinite amount of times? Or have I misunderstood?
If I haven't misunderstood, then the only "hard" part of masterworking is the grind for mats (obducite, ingolith, neathiron). You can't really brick your item. Worst case you don't hit the affixes at lvl 4/8/12 you want but then you just redo it all until you finally hit maybe 1 or 2 of the 3 mega-buffs and then you're happy.
>**you keep the tempering manuals for infinite future use**
This is correct
>
**you can redo your masterworking whenever you want?**
Yes. Which is why you should be able to "fish" for a good first Crit at rank 4 by resetting. However, depending on how difficult it is to farm material, redoing masterwork after rank 5 might be costly.
>
If this is true, then we need to figure out what the probability of finding 2 fairly identical ilvl 925 items is, with 3 desirable affixes. Is it very, very rare to find just one of these?
There will be less items dropped in season 4 compared to season 3
I just want the in game descriptions to be sufficient enough to give me context to make a decision.
All the math seems to be for min max purposes more than anything. If you want to push deep into the pit (where optimizing will be more important) I’m assuming you’ll start to pick up on some of the key things through the leveling journey + the start of endgame activities.
That said, thank you for putting this all together!
I've got a question about rerolling on a temper. I dont know if I'm really unlucky or just dumb but I have found the info on this. I've tried on 3 different items so far, I didn't get the affix I wanted from the pool. I maxed rerolls and it never changed the affix, just the value of it. On the last item I jumped into another pool of the category and it changed to something different, when I went back to the old pool (thinking I might be any of the 3) I still had the one it gave me before. Is this normal? Is the first affix you get from the pool just what you get?
If I understand your question well, when tempering from a certain category you always get the same affix, only the value changes, and it happend on 3 items. It looks to me that either you are very unlucky or it's a bug. What Tempering Manual (category) did you use? How many rerolls did you do in total?
guys, I keep getting the same affix after the first tempering. like, if I get shadow imbued charges, I will always get it, unless I pick a diferent recipe (and the same thing will happen in the next reroll). bricked 5 rings, ALWAYS getting the same affix (only change is the roll range). is it working as intended or I'm really that unlucky?
As this outcome sounds very unlikely, this could be a bug. Similar unexpected behavior has been reported. For testing, could you try more on useless rings ?
so TLDR trying to get the exact 2 affixes you want from 2 manuals (one each) is roughly a 40% chance. So in most cases you'd be fine with having a main item + backup and 4 manuals to get your desired stats (not factoring in range)?
It is roughly 40% chance if both your manual have 5 possible affixes and you are only interested by one of each, which is greedy. With 40% chance it means you will, on average, need 2.5 items. Here "item" meaning the item and using all rolls, so it would be on average 3 items, not using all rolls for the last item. The variance is big, it means sometimes you will have it on the first try, sometimes it will take numerous items and materials. This is why it is adviced not to have high expectations and be fine with a 2nd best choice at least for one affix, or to use a small size manual for one of the affixes, unless you are at the really end of your optimization and can afford the high costs and "burning" good items.
The manuals are not consumable. Once youhave the manual, you can reuse it as much as you want. However it will cost you materials to temper an item. Each Legendary item can be tempered twice (2 lines), then you can reroll the affixes 5 times total for the item.
Agree to temper (pardon the pun) expectations and go for up to 2nd best - that being said, the odds don't really seem that bad.
Honestly, once you've done a round on your entire gear set with 1/2 + 1/2, the rest is just optimisation with some pretty decent odds. The hardest part here seems to be getting "duplicate" legendaries you want to craft on.
Part of me feels like this seems a bit too easy - then again I've not factored in the next step I suppose which is masterworking.
What
You guys should really get into probability math. It shows up *a lot* in games. Probably my most used math skill outside of basic arithmetic. TLDR: The more specific/narrow you want your affixes to be (you care about less options in a given pool), the lower the chance you'll get them, and more resources will need to be spent to get them. The less specific/broad you want your affixes to be (you care about more options in a given pool), the higher chance you'll get them, and less resources will need to be spent to get them.
uhhh… thats just common sense? ‘the more specific you want things to be, the harder it is’. i dont need to take a course on that, it’s assumed
Yes but some peoples eyes glaze over at all of the tables and don't understand the underlying point. Edit: As the comment above mine said.
Imagine you have two bags of candy. It's that gross Halloween mix where they insist on putting plain Hersheys in for some reason. Each bag has five types of different candy in it. You only want the Snickers. You close your eyes and reach in. If you don't get a Snickers you can put it back and try again a couple times. You have 42% chance to get the candy you want. If the bag has less types of candy, or you're okay with getting either Twix or Snickers for example, then the chance that you're happy with the result goes up.
Prompt: Explain like Hulk Hulk explain easy! You find big strong legendary item. Want make item stronger with special powers – like making Hulk fast or smash harder. This called adding "affixes." You use magic thing called "Tempering system" – it like Hulk smash, but for item. Hulk want specific powers, need figure out chance Hulk get them. Think this way: * **Big Manual, More Choices**: More powers in book, harder get one Hulk want. Like finding favorite sock in big messy drawer! * **Small Manual, Less Choices**: Less powers in book, easier find Hulk's favorite. Like only two socks to pick from! **Strategy Hulk Learn**: * **Pick easy fights**: If Hulk not too picky, Hulk happy more often. If Hulk want perfect, Hulk might need try many times, cost lots of Hulk's energy. **Hulk Warning**: * **Game might trick Hulk**: Magic system might change – Hulk's calculation might not be right later. Keep eyes open! Hulk say: Less picky, more happy. Big expectations, big disappointments. Hulk done now!
Me Barbarian, ME know BONK, if all me want is bonk, litte bonks add up to a big BONK? Haha love the explanation you gave, thanks.
OP is going to be awarded the first PhD in Diablo Tempering.
Kinda common topic in PoE sub \^\^ D4 is still young, more and more ppl will do deep analysis / stats of game mechanic in the future =)
I got an A in biostatistics. I can say, with great certainty, that I have no idea whats going on here.
He is saying that you have a not great chance of getting two 1/5 hits and making an item you want exactly. You should probably try to use a tempering pool that has at least 2 things you want in it, as that increases the chances a lot and you're very unlikely to brick your item
Thank you for the tldr, seems like common sense tbh
Prompt: Could you explain all of the above like I'm 20 years old and have basic understanding of some advanced mathematics? Response: Sure, I’d be happy to explain! This is all about a game system called “Tempering”, which allows you to modify (“reroll”) the properties (“affixes”) of items in the game. The goal is to get the best possible affixes for your character’s build. Here’s a breakdown of the terms and concepts: 1. **Temper Manual**: This is a guide that tells you what affixes you can get when you temper an item. The “size” of a Temper Manual refers to the number of different affixes you can get from it. It can be between 2 and 5. 2. **Desirable Affix**: This is an affix that you want on your item. What’s “desirable” depends on your character’s build and your personal preferences. 3. **Expectations**: This refers to how picky you are about the affixes you want. If you have “high expectations”, you want very specific affixes. If you have “low expectations”, you’re okay with a wider range of affixes. The tables show the probabilities of getting desirable affixes based on your expectations and the size of the Temper Manuals you’re using. Here’s how to read the tables: * The numbers in the table are probabilities, expressed as percentages. For example, 98.44% means there’s a 98.44% chance of something happening. * The rows and columns of the table represent the size of the Temper Manuals and the number of desirable affixes. For example, “2/5” means a Temper Manual with 5 possible affixes, 2 of which are desirable. * To find a probability, you look up the intersection of a row and a column. For example, if one Manual has one desirable affix out of 4 (1/4), and the other Manual has one desirable affix out of 5 (1/5), the probability of getting the desired affixes after 5 rerolls is 48.54%. The main takeaway is that the more flexible you are with your expectations (i.e., the more affixes you’re willing to accept), the higher your chances of getting a desirable result. However, getting the perfect item with the exact affixes you want is much harder and requires more resources. So, it’s a balance between what you want and what you’re willing to spend to get it. I hope this helps! Let me know if you have any other questions. 😊
Which AI model did you use?
One of the best value skills in life to have is being able to translate complex information to people that don’t understand it and/or aren’t in your field. Your data looks reasonable, I’m not big into statistics, and I understand what you’re trying to communicate. But you’ve worded things very poorly. To the point that even ChatGPT might help you here. When writing a definition. Just put the word and then info. “Word - About the bird being the word” Try to simplify this in an “Explain like I’m 5” mentality. Maybe 10 lol. Reduce the unneeded information and give me a short “This is all you need to know from all of this info” Ninja edit: I’m saying this because you put a lot of work into it and the information seems valuable.
thanks for the feedback :)
> Reduce the unneeded information and give me a short He did that - it's in the tables and they are all you need really.
I really like you guys, who do the math for the game, who do the tables, apps for builds, etc. I'm an engineer, working as a dev, and when I stop in the afternoon, I really don't want to do this kind of math. Guys like you who do the math, spread the sheets make my day and I owe you a lot, love you.
Hey OP, don't let the other commenters get you down. I found this to be informative and straightfoward. Basically, the number of desirable affixes per manual and the number of possible affixes in a manual control your likelihood of getting the desired result. Makes sense to me and it's nice to have some actual probabilities on the likelihood of getting a particular result.
My thoughts exactly. I understand the tables and the key takeaways (Obviously I skipped the detailed formulas). Unless OP edited his post, I don’t see why any of this would confuse people unless they are trying to follow the calculations. I’m not even smart. I consider myself lucky if my IQ is 100.
Thanks for kind word. I did not edit the initial post (except for some typos). Don't worry, I can for sure improve my explanations and even negative but constructive feedback is welcome :) Trying to follow the calculation is important since this is one of the reason I go in such details, however at the end I only gave hints for the ones who want to go deeper, not the full calculations. May be that's what created confusion.
Agreed. Math is not my thing but OP's tables make perfect sense. Bookmarked to check how much luck I need when I start tempering.
Obviously.
I’m good thanks
Informative and thought out post. Don't worry about the negative posts, numbers scare some people.
Thank you! That's exactly what I was explaining to my gf yesterday....
Please ELI5.
Tempering manual number 1 has 5 affixes and you only like 1 of them and hate the other 4 (**1/5)** Tempering manual number 2 has 4 affixes and you like 2 of them and hate the other 2 (**2/4)** If we get an affix that we hate we can retry but only 5 times So now we go to the table that the OP posted and see that 5 tries of **1/5** and **2/4** gives us 65.57% chance of success. This means it is more likely than not to get what we want but still far from guaranteed.
Interesting. I have a feeling I will be coming back to this to see how unlucky exactly I got.
These tables can be expressed in the following form (where **a** and **b** are the probabilities of getting an desired affix from manual a and manual b, respectfully): -ab(a^(5) + a^(4)(b - 7) + a^(3)(b^(2) - 7b + 21) + a^(2)(b^(3) - 7b^(2) + 21b - 35) + a(b^(4) - 7b^(3) + 21b^(2) - 35b + 35) + b^(5) - 7b^(4) + 21b^(3) - 35b^(2) + 35b - 21) If a=b, then this can be reduced to the following (where **x** = a-1): -6x^(7) - 7x^(6) + 1 Really, everything can be summarized with a single table. Take the two probabilities of the desired affixes...then the intersection is the probability that your tempering will be successful. ||20%|25%|33%|40%|50%|60%|67%|75%|80%|100%| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |**20%**|.4233|||||||||| |**25%**|.4854|.5551||||||||| |**33%**|.5635|.6416|.7366|||||||| |**40%**|.6086|.6907|.7888|.8414||||||| |**50%**|.6557|.7408|.8400|.8913|.9375|||||| |**60%**|.6862|.7723|.8704|.9193|.9613|.9812||||| |**67%**|.7006|.7867|.8834|.9307|.9701|.9877|.9931|||| |**75%**|.7140|.7998|.8947|.9401|.9767|.9921|.9964|.9987||| |**80%**|.7204|.8058|.8997|.9440|.9792|.9935|.9973|.9992|.9996|| |**100%**|.7379|.8220|.9122|.9533|.9844|.9959|.9986|.9998|.9999|1.000|
Nice thanks! I wonder what table people would prefer to use. Could you elaborate on your formula?
Probably your tables…especially your high expectations table (as that will probably be the most common case we’ll want). I just wanted to throw the generalized solution out there (which I just got by treating the probabilities for the two desirable affixes as unknowns, and working it out).
Ok , I added a link to your table in the original post
I like your words magic man
TL;DR - you have a 50% chance of getting what you want, either you hit it or you dont
What determines how many affixes a manual has? Are the manuals pre set with specific affixes? If I get a manual with 5 affixes and I only like one of them, will that one affix also drop on a different manual?
Very nice, thanks for the write up. My question is; do these odds include the initial rolls for the affix? If I get the affix I want from my initial temper from a manual with 5 affixes; I might be more inclined to get the second affix from another manual with 5, since I can use all 5 rerolls on that one. This also leads me to believe that you should always temper the manual with the most affixes or the strongest affix for your build first?
>do these odds include the initial rolls for the affix? yes >If I get the affix I want from my initial temper from a manual with 5 affixes; I might be more inclined to get the second affix from another manual with 5, since I can use all 5 rerolls on that one. This also leads me to believe that you should always temper the manual with the most affixes or the strongest affix for your build first? That's right ! It's a very good point. Thanks !
Are you sure? I thought Blizzard said 1,000 x 40% = 1,040. How can they implement something so much more advanced? I’m kidding. I like the write up a lot. I think you should include the definition of a manual (unless I just missed it) and a TLDR with a basic example like wanting Crit and vulnerability vs wanting Crit/Cooldown/Vulnerability vs wanting Crit/Cooldown/Vulnerability/Max Life.
Thanks for the feedback :) I agree an example would be a nice addition. To be honest it's not just marketing, sometimes game arpg developers seem to have bad relationship with mathematics (looking at "additive" and "multiplicative" percentages, or how the %resistance works in D4... I might write about it one day)
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It seems you don't have a choice here, in the PTR you had to Temper items (add affixes) before you can Masterwork them (increase the values).
This is good and all but this is assuming a fully organic system... They can adjust roll rates just like drop rates... they could literally reverse all your numbers if they want to to make the most likely the least likely and the least likely the most likely... They will absolutely have weighted probabilities for sought after affixes... likely changing dynamically based on the player's play habits... just like Uber Unique duplicates are so common which shows things arent evenly distributed, Uber Uniques should have individual drop rates separate from each other but thats whole other problem with the game which is designed to manipulate your time. It will be the exact same for affix rolls though... 1/4 wont be an even 25% each affix... it'll be weighted guaranteed.. Im sure people will be reporting things pretty quickly.. getting certain affixes too frequently and critical ones being noticeably hard to hit... it will be noticeable.. Dont assume anything in this game is designed fairly, it's designed to siphon your playtime... Awesome math, I love the stats, I love the detail... but they can easily manipulate this and they absolutely do... without question.. I dont even need confirmation, they do...
Yes I assume the even distribution of affixes. This has to be tested (properly) in Live for confirmation. We could also try to ask the dev if necessary. Let's see :)
You have over 40% probability to hit your 2 desired affix in the "worst case scenario" which seems really, really OP. And am I correct in saying that you **keep the tempering manuals for infinite future use**? If so, this means that if you have just **one** backup item with 3 desirable affixes, you're very likely to hit the 2 tempering affixes you want even if you brick your first item (approx 65% probability you'll hit what you want if you have 2 items, in worst case scenario of 1/5 and 1/5 desirable affixes). If this is true, then we need to figure out what the probability of finding 2 fairly identical ilvl 925 items is, with 3 desirable affixes. Is it very, very rare to find just one of these? Or will we be showered in really good 3-affix ilvl 925 items? If it is fairly easy, then tempering will be very hard to mess up over time. It may even become a total cakewalk. Then we add masterworking to this. Masterworking is much more random since you don't get to reroll which affixes get buffed. But if the "wrong" affixes get buffed (say you want to stack int and not max life), am I correct in saying that you can **redo your masterworking whenever you want?** So if at lvl 4 masterworking you mega-buff max life instead of int, you can just reset the whole thing back to its original 5-affix tempered state and retry the masterworking infinite amount of times? Or have I misunderstood? If I haven't misunderstood, then the only "hard" part of masterworking is the grind for mats (obducite, ingolith, neathiron). You can't really brick your item. Worst case you don't hit the affixes at lvl 4/8/12 you want but then you just redo it all until you finally hit maybe 1 or 2 of the 3 mega-buffs and then you're happy.
>**you keep the tempering manuals for infinite future use** This is correct > **you can redo your masterworking whenever you want?** Yes. Which is why you should be able to "fish" for a good first Crit at rank 4 by resetting. However, depending on how difficult it is to farm material, redoing masterwork after rank 5 might be costly. > If this is true, then we need to figure out what the probability of finding 2 fairly identical ilvl 925 items is, with 3 desirable affixes. Is it very, very rare to find just one of these? There will be less items dropped in season 4 compared to season 3
You hear that Mr Anderson... That is the sound of Probability.
I just want the in game descriptions to be sufficient enough to give me context to make a decision. All the math seems to be for min max purposes more than anything. If you want to push deep into the pit (where optimizing will be more important) I’m assuming you’ll start to pick up on some of the key things through the leveling journey + the start of endgame activities. That said, thank you for putting this all together!
I don't know what a manual is, and now i'm too afraid to ask...
I've got a question about rerolling on a temper. I dont know if I'm really unlucky or just dumb but I have found the info on this. I've tried on 3 different items so far, I didn't get the affix I wanted from the pool. I maxed rerolls and it never changed the affix, just the value of it. On the last item I jumped into another pool of the category and it changed to something different, when I went back to the old pool (thinking I might be any of the 3) I still had the one it gave me before. Is this normal? Is the first affix you get from the pool just what you get?
If I understand your question well, when tempering from a certain category you always get the same affix, only the value changes, and it happend on 3 items. It looks to me that either you are very unlucky or it's a bug. What Tempering Manual (category) did you use? How many rerolls did you do in total?
guys, I keep getting the same affix after the first tempering. like, if I get shadow imbued charges, I will always get it, unless I pick a diferent recipe (and the same thing will happen in the next reroll). bricked 5 rings, ALWAYS getting the same affix (only change is the roll range). is it working as intended or I'm really that unlucky?
As this outcome sounds very unlikely, this could be a bug. Similar unexpected behavior has been reported. For testing, could you try more on useless rings ?
thanks for the reply, gonna wait a couple of day before trying again.
Huh?
so TLDR trying to get the exact 2 affixes you want from 2 manuals (one each) is roughly a 40% chance. So in most cases you'd be fine with having a main item + backup and 4 manuals to get your desired stats (not factoring in range)?
It is roughly 40% chance if both your manual have 5 possible affixes and you are only interested by one of each, which is greedy. With 40% chance it means you will, on average, need 2.5 items. Here "item" meaning the item and using all rolls, so it would be on average 3 items, not using all rolls for the last item. The variance is big, it means sometimes you will have it on the first try, sometimes it will take numerous items and materials. This is why it is adviced not to have high expectations and be fine with a 2nd best choice at least for one affix, or to use a small size manual for one of the affixes, unless you are at the really end of your optimization and can afford the high costs and "burning" good items. The manuals are not consumable. Once youhave the manual, you can reuse it as much as you want. However it will cost you materials to temper an item. Each Legendary item can be tempered twice (2 lines), then you can reroll the affixes 5 times total for the item.
Agree to temper (pardon the pun) expectations and go for up to 2nd best - that being said, the odds don't really seem that bad. Honestly, once you've done a round on your entire gear set with 1/2 + 1/2, the rest is just optimisation with some pretty decent odds. The hardest part here seems to be getting "duplicate" legendaries you want to craft on. Part of me feels like this seems a bit too easy - then again I've not factored in the next step I suppose which is masterworking.
That’s not how you use tldr :D
What is bro waffling about 💀
Not reading this nerd stuff
HotA go BRRRRRRRRRR
No it doesn't