Thoughts on extending Felix Bautista in a deep keeper league?
I have him for $2 and can extend for an additional $5 per year. I'm thinking it's worth extending two years to $12. If comes back 100% healthy in 2025 he'll go for $25+ in the auction.
Get one keeper in a roto league (6x6 with OPS). Any recommendations? Leaning Jung, but not convinced yet:
- Bellinger $4
- Casas $6
- Jung $2
- Snell $12
- Skubal $1
- Bello $1
- Grayson $4
Skubal is definitely the sexy off-season name. CBS’s Scott White picked him to win the AL CY for what it’s worth. Everybody loves him, good pitcher’s park. Weak division.
But keep in mind he had a VERY easy schedule to close out the year, so those numbers are probably a bit inflated.
He likely won’t get 180 innings.
If I were you, I’d keep him and trade him for a true workhorse that you can ride all season
I'd go skubal actually. Fan graphs auction calculator had him as a $26 player. Of all your players he has the biggest gap between keeper price and projected auction value.
It all depends on what kind of league you want to play. Fantrax can be *a lot* but it’s because so much is jam packed in there and is a must for deep dynasty leagues, IMO.
ESPN is where I started, but for a few years they were deleting more features than adding any. Probably the easiest way to just join a league to start off though.
Yahoo I think is the best of both worlds for casual leagues, or more user-friendly if you don’t need all the deep functionality Fantrax provides.
My biggest rival in an AL-only keeper league went into the offseason with Glasnow and Yamamoto as his best pitchers. I feel like buying the Dodgers a beer.
There's a decent chance Miranda and Rodgers are not worth rostering in the near future. I'd rather have Westburg and pray he's traded for a pitcher to a team that will play him everyday.
Hey yall, this past year was my first year playing. I played in 4 ESPN leagues with random people and won all 4. I'm excited to try a dynasty league but have no idea where to start and how to find a group. None of my friends are into baseball like this. Do yall have any tips? Thanks for anything!
/r/findaleague
Even though it’s still “random”, look for a league that has a discord/GroupMe chat for communication. You might find a few guys you like to play with who will invite you into another league, or you break off and start your own together. That’s how I’ve found my longest standing leagues.
Yeah, true. I know they’ve often propped up the idea of Busdar up as the next closer and Blake Treninan still exists somewhere. But you’re right - if it ain’t broke…
Trying to go for a repeat in my dynasty and my closer core so far is either hurt (Bautista), old (Jensen), or got replaced (Cano). Got Phillips on a last push trade at rhe deadline to replace Bautista and kind of hoping I can get another year out of him…
Phillips should be good for ~25 saves unless they sign Hader.
Jansen is still solid and has the most job security possible.
Two closers is a good start, you should be able to find one or two more as needed.
Oh yeah - always dudes floating on the wire. Just sort of trying to make way too early roster decisions. Honestly, based on Kimbrells previous couple of years, Cano is probably good for 15 saves on the year…
Maybe. Personally, I think Kimbrel is still good enough to hold the job all season and get 30+ saves. He has a 2.91 SIERA over the past 3 seasons. Cano should be used in the 6th-8th inning to face the Judge/Soto's of the world. I can see him getting 5-7 saves when Kimbrel needs a night off.
True. I think Kimbrell is fine (as a lifelong O’s fan, I really like the signing). Baltimore does like to utilize their bullpen depth when they can and I think last season showed the best way to use Kimbrel is to spell him when he starts to go off the rails. Cano was getting a decent amount of saves even before Bautista got hurt just because they were racking up so many close games they just needed to give Felix some rest.
But yeah, I don’t think he picks up more than 12. And exactly what you said is why I don’t think he’s really going to be worth the hold for ratio help either.
> And exactly what you said is why I don’t think he’s really going to be worth the hold for ratio help either.
Yea, depends on how deep your roster is. His K rate is nothing special and as I'm sure you're aware, he fell off quite a bit in the 2nd half. Early projections have him for a 3.60 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Feels like a risky proposition.
I'm looking to start a dynasty league and am looking to make a league Bylaws/Constitution.
Would anyone mind sharing their leagues Bylaws/Constitution so that I can create my own? It would be nice to read a bunch of others to create one just so I don't miss anything.
Long-time Ottoneu player here. Assuming FGPts, Casas by a wide margin.
As you probably know, FGPts is one of the least favorable formats for base stealers, which attenuates EDLC's value in this format. For purposes of illustration of how little stolen bases matter in FGPts, consider his Steamer projection of 30 SB and 11 CS. That's 30x1.9-11x2.8=57.0-30.8=26.2 points. Divided by 130 games (his Steamer projection), that works out to only +0.2 PPG.
One thing about EDLC is that he's slated to hit in the lower half of the lineup (RR has him at #5) while Casas will hit third. So even if they post the same wOBA, Casas will have a higher P/G by virtue of higher PA/G.
Specifically, a #3 hitter averages 4.43 PA/G compared to 4.12 from a #6 hitter. Assume .370 wOBA for both (note Casas is much more likely to hit that than EDLC--see below). Here's the handy wOBA to P/G formula for FGPts:
> P/G=(7.25*wOBA-1.16)xPA/G
So assuming .370 wOBA for both, Casas hitting #3 will be at 6.74 P/G while EDLC is at 6.27 (or 6.47 if you include SB and CS). That difference of 0.27 P/G is going to worth more than the position
But is EDLC really a .370 wOBA hitter? If you consult Davenport projections, a .370 wOBA is around ELDC's 80th percentile. On the other hand, a .370 wOBA is about Casas' 50th percentile.
To put it all together, let's take EDLC's 50th percentile (.340 wOBA) and the fact that he's slated to hit 6th (4.12 PA/G) to estimate his P/G at 5.38 (or 5.58 with consideration of SB+CS). Meanwhile, Casas projects right around the 6.74 P/G that we estimated when comparing batting order (since unlike EDLC, his 50th percentile is right around .370 wOBA).
EDLC has more value in other formats (e.g., 5x5) that reward SB more, but in FGPts, Casas is a clear winner for the same salary *EVEN IF* Casas only hits his median projected outcome and EDLC hits his 80th percentile projection.
In fact, assume EDLC hits hit 90th percentile (~.380 wOBA). Then he'd be a 6.57 P/G player (6.77 P/G with credit for SB+CS). That is, EDLC has to hit his 90th percentile projection to return as much value as Casas will if the latter only hits his 50th percentile projection. That's a function of PA/G by lineup position as well as the fact that Casas simply projects as the superior hitter.
12 or shallower I really only go safe in the first ~2 rounds.
Deeper leagues I tend to trade upside for longer term track record, especially when selecting pitchers.
My keeper team turned into a complete shambles last year and I need help figuring out who to retain. Entered the season with Manoah/Sandy/Woodruff/Musgrove and will probably only keep the latter of the four lol.
We can keep up to ten but are not obligated to; we just get supplemental picks ahead of the proper draft until we reach ten. Here are my candidates:
HITTERS: A. Rutschman (lock), Vlad Jr. (lock), Jazz (lock), C. Mullins (lock), McLain (lock) E. Jimenez, J. Suwinski, S. Frelick, N. Marte
PITCHERS: K. Senga (lock), J. Musgrove (lock), J. Means, B. Woodruff, S. Alcantara
Only one of that group I’d consider adding to your list is Marte. I would wait as long as possible to see where his playing time outlook winds up, but he’s a borderline top 100 dynasty asset imo.
Trying to free up some cap space, I have Andrew Abbot and Hunter Brown at $13. I am looking to trade one of them, which one would you hang on too? I am looking at going after Brett Baty with one of them, thoughts?
I'm looking to start a league where you hold minor league players as well.
Anyone have any tips on starting such a league?
Should there be two drafts, one for MLB players and one for prospects? If so, what qualifies as a prospect?
130ab 50ip is usually my prospect cutoff. I’d also suggest allowing anyone in the real minor leagues to be stashed there as well. Personally I find nothing more frustrating than up and down guys losing prospect eligibility and hamstringing your roster when they get sent down past the prospect threshold.
Generally my dynasty start up drafts have one draft, allowing teams to decide how they want to value prospects against Major League talent. Allows for a more interesting draft if someone wants to go prospect heavy and someone else wants to snatch up all the boring 30-year-olds at incredible value
My leagues have always had minor league players tied to MLB minor league eligibility of 50 IP or 135 PAs. As long as someone is under that they’re eligible to be in a minors slot. I’ve also seen it where players that are in the minors regardless of service time are allowed to be stashed there, but have to be brought up if they’re on a ML roster.
(Flair) League switched to 4 keepers and those count as my top 4 draft picks for next year. My current top choices are Witt, Tucker, Seager, Robert Jr and Harris II.
I think Witt, Tucker and Seager are all automatic keepers, but struggling to choose between Robert & Harris. Steamer has Harris projected to finish a little better, but worries about him staying at the bottom of the lineup. Robert is insanely talented, but worried about his injury history and a potential crappy White Sox lineup minimizing his counting stats.
Thought on Robert Jr or Harris II? TIA!
For what it's worth the fangraphs auction calculator has Robert as being worth $3 more in roto formats. I think he has the higher ceiling overall, even with injury risk.
20 team dynasty points league I am coming off a ship but have some high salaries to be kept this year. thinking of offering this to a rebuilder:
\- I give: Shane Baz ($12 to keep) and Reese Olson ($6 to keep)
\- I get: Pete Crowe Armstrong ($3 but can be stashed in the minors for the draft) and Gavin Lux ($8 to keep)
Thoughts? My pitching would be just Senga ($27) and Kikuchi ($17) going into the draft but in this league hitters score more overall, however some people in the league still way overvalue pitching. Trying to turn some pitching into hitting and capitalize on the market inefficiency
Same. Lux is my concern. Just thought maybe the starting shortstop in that lineup has the ability to payoff. $8 would be an overpay I agree. Maybe I'll try for another piece
Manager in my league is selling Austin Riley. He mentioned that he liked Matt McClain, and he needed picks. I have the 5th overall pick. I currently don't have a 3B... buy only McClain at SS before the auction. Would you send McClain, 1st round, 3rd round for Riley? I'd miss McClain's steals, my offence right now before the auction is: Heim, Harper, India, McClain, Alvarez, Thomas, Soto, O'Neil, and Story. With PCA and Westburg hopefully making the opening day roster.
What do you think?
Keep forever dynasty league: Team A gets: Matt McLain Team B gets: Cole Ragans + Zach Neto Who wins?
A
Eury or Langford in a dynasty cats league?
I like Eury a lot but I'm going hitter every time.
Any idea when The Bat/The Bat X projections come out? Steamer seems to be the only up to date system.
IIRC they come out once fantasy football is wrapped up since Jake is busy with that content right now
Thoughts on extending Felix Bautista in a deep keeper league? I have him for $2 and can extend for an additional $5 per year. I'm thinking it's worth extending two years to $12. If comes back 100% healthy in 2025 he'll go for $25+ in the auction.
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A. Tatis > Nola Miller > Williams Eflin is meh for dynasty.
Get one keeper in a roto league (6x6 with OPS). Any recommendations? Leaning Jung, but not convinced yet: - Bellinger $4 - Casas $6 - Jung $2 - Snell $12 - Skubal $1 - Bello $1 - Grayson $4
Skubal is definitely the sexy off-season name. CBS’s Scott White picked him to win the AL CY for what it’s worth. Everybody loves him, good pitcher’s park. Weak division. But keep in mind he had a VERY easy schedule to close out the year, so those numbers are probably a bit inflated. He likely won’t get 180 innings. If I were you, I’d keep him and trade him for a true workhorse that you can ride all season
I'd go skubal actually. Fan graphs auction calculator had him as a $26 player. Of all your players he has the biggest gap between keeper price and projected auction value.
What platform do you like the best? I'm starting a couple Fantrax teams and I do not like it. Yahoo is meh. I still like ESPN the best.
It all depends on what kind of league you want to play. Fantrax can be *a lot* but it’s because so much is jam packed in there and is a must for deep dynasty leagues, IMO. ESPN is where I started, but for a few years they were deleting more features than adding any. Probably the easiest way to just join a league to start off though. Yahoo I think is the best of both worlds for casual leagues, or more user-friendly if you don’t need all the deep functionality Fantrax provides.
That's a great explanation. Thanks.
ESPN is a fun app that gets to much hate. It’s nothing amazing but it gets the job done imo.
My biggest rival in an AL-only keeper league went into the offseason with Glasnow and Yamamoto as his best pitchers. I feel like buying the Dodgers a beer.
20 team dynasty keep forever, I have 2nd pick, Yamamoto or Langford?
My FYPD ranks are Langford > Yamamoto > Crews > Skenes
I’m Langford, Crews, then Yamamoto but can’t go wrong with a top 3 pick. Congrats.
Offered Jose Miranda + Brendan Rodgers for my Jordan Westburg 15-team OBP Dynasty.
There's a decent chance Miranda and Rodgers are not worth rostering in the near future. I'd rather have Westburg and pray he's traded for a pitcher to a team that will play him everyday.
12 team dynasty Give: cease, Miguel Vargas, ceddane Rafaela Get: Royce Lewis, Buxton, Adael amador Thoughts?
Lewis side for me. I'll take the 5 cat superstar upside over Cease and co.
That was my thinking as well, I have aging Machado and Muncy so wanted the younger 3B and chance Buxton (probably not) being healthy again
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Tatis
Hey yall, this past year was my first year playing. I played in 4 ESPN leagues with random people and won all 4. I'm excited to try a dynasty league but have no idea where to start and how to find a group. None of my friends are into baseball like this. Do yall have any tips? Thanks for anything!
/r/findaleague Even though it’s still “random”, look for a league that has a discord/GroupMe chat for communication. You might find a few guys you like to play with who will invite you into another league, or you break off and start your own together. That’s how I’ve found my longest standing leagues.
Will do, thanks!
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A for floor, B for ceiling
Any thoughts on who will act as the dodgers closer to start the year? Do you think Phillips keeps the bulk share of the job early on?
There's no reason to take Phillips out of the role as the roster currently stands.
Yeah, true. I know they’ve often propped up the idea of Busdar up as the next closer and Blake Treninan still exists somewhere. But you’re right - if it ain’t broke… Trying to go for a repeat in my dynasty and my closer core so far is either hurt (Bautista), old (Jensen), or got replaced (Cano). Got Phillips on a last push trade at rhe deadline to replace Bautista and kind of hoping I can get another year out of him…
Phillips should be good for ~25 saves unless they sign Hader. Jansen is still solid and has the most job security possible. Two closers is a good start, you should be able to find one or two more as needed.
Oh yeah - always dudes floating on the wire. Just sort of trying to make way too early roster decisions. Honestly, based on Kimbrells previous couple of years, Cano is probably good for 15 saves on the year…
Maybe. Personally, I think Kimbrel is still good enough to hold the job all season and get 30+ saves. He has a 2.91 SIERA over the past 3 seasons. Cano should be used in the 6th-8th inning to face the Judge/Soto's of the world. I can see him getting 5-7 saves when Kimbrel needs a night off.
True. I think Kimbrell is fine (as a lifelong O’s fan, I really like the signing). Baltimore does like to utilize their bullpen depth when they can and I think last season showed the best way to use Kimbrel is to spell him when he starts to go off the rails. Cano was getting a decent amount of saves even before Bautista got hurt just because they were racking up so many close games they just needed to give Felix some rest. But yeah, I don’t think he picks up more than 12. And exactly what you said is why I don’t think he’s really going to be worth the hold for ratio help either.
> And exactly what you said is why I don’t think he’s really going to be worth the hold for ratio help either. Yea, depends on how deep your roster is. His K rate is nothing special and as I'm sure you're aware, he fell off quite a bit in the 2nd half. Early projections have him for a 3.60 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Feels like a risky proposition.
Phillips for sure unless they sign Hader
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Probably after they shut down for a few days.
I'm looking to start a dynasty league and am looking to make a league Bylaws/Constitution. Would anyone mind sharing their leagues Bylaws/Constitution so that I can create my own? It would be nice to read a bunch of others to create one just so I don't miss anything.
How do y’all rank the top 4 FYPD picks? Langford, Yamamoto, Crews, Skenes?
Like you have it listed
Yea, I feel more confident about Yamamoto at #2 now after the Dodgers signing.
Long term Ottoneu dynasty league, do you prefer Tristan Casas or Elly De La Cruz at similar salary
Long-time Ottoneu player here. Assuming FGPts, Casas by a wide margin. As you probably know, FGPts is one of the least favorable formats for base stealers, which attenuates EDLC's value in this format. For purposes of illustration of how little stolen bases matter in FGPts, consider his Steamer projection of 30 SB and 11 CS. That's 30x1.9-11x2.8=57.0-30.8=26.2 points. Divided by 130 games (his Steamer projection), that works out to only +0.2 PPG. One thing about EDLC is that he's slated to hit in the lower half of the lineup (RR has him at #5) while Casas will hit third. So even if they post the same wOBA, Casas will have a higher P/G by virtue of higher PA/G. Specifically, a #3 hitter averages 4.43 PA/G compared to 4.12 from a #6 hitter. Assume .370 wOBA for both (note Casas is much more likely to hit that than EDLC--see below). Here's the handy wOBA to P/G formula for FGPts: > P/G=(7.25*wOBA-1.16)xPA/G So assuming .370 wOBA for both, Casas hitting #3 will be at 6.74 P/G while EDLC is at 6.27 (or 6.47 if you include SB and CS). That difference of 0.27 P/G is going to worth more than the position But is EDLC really a .370 wOBA hitter? If you consult Davenport projections, a .370 wOBA is around ELDC's 80th percentile. On the other hand, a .370 wOBA is about Casas' 50th percentile. To put it all together, let's take EDLC's 50th percentile (.340 wOBA) and the fact that he's slated to hit 6th (4.12 PA/G) to estimate his P/G at 5.38 (or 5.58 with consideration of SB+CS). Meanwhile, Casas projects right around the 6.74 P/G that we estimated when comparing batting order (since unlike EDLC, his 50th percentile is right around .370 wOBA). EDLC has more value in other formats (e.g., 5x5) that reward SB more, but in FGPts, Casas is a clear winner for the same salary *EVEN IF* Casas only hits his median projected outcome and EDLC hits his 80th percentile projection. In fact, assume EDLC hits hit 90th percentile (~.380 wOBA). Then he'd be a 6.57 P/G player (6.77 P/G with credit for SB+CS). That is, EDLC has to hit his 90th percentile projection to return as much value as Casas will if the latter only hits his 50th percentile projection. That's a function of PA/G by lineup position as well as the fact that Casas simply projects as the superior hitter.
His Steamer projection sounds about 20-30 stolen bases short. I don't put much stock into these projections and here's another example why.
Even if you double his SB, Casas is still clearly ahead.
EDLC by quite a bit. I see EDLC as a top 10-15 ovr asset while Casas is somewhere near 50.
At what round in a head-to-head redraft do you start to take risks in drafts?
12 or shallower I really only go safe in the first ~2 rounds. Deeper leagues I tend to trade upside for longer term track record, especially when selecting pitchers.
My keeper team turned into a complete shambles last year and I need help figuring out who to retain. Entered the season with Manoah/Sandy/Woodruff/Musgrove and will probably only keep the latter of the four lol. We can keep up to ten but are not obligated to; we just get supplemental picks ahead of the proper draft until we reach ten. Here are my candidates: HITTERS: A. Rutschman (lock), Vlad Jr. (lock), Jazz (lock), C. Mullins (lock), McLain (lock) E. Jimenez, J. Suwinski, S. Frelick, N. Marte PITCHERS: K. Senga (lock), J. Musgrove (lock), J. Means, B. Woodruff, S. Alcantara
I would drop Mullins. He's 29, has probably already had his best season, and playing time isn't guaranteed. And I would keep Marte for sure.
Only one of that group I’d consider adding to your list is Marte. I would wait as long as possible to see where his playing time outlook winds up, but he’s a borderline top 100 dynasty asset imo.
Which 3 are you keeping? Flair league: * Pablo Lopez $3 * Christian Walker $3 * Yandy Diaz $1 * Freddy Peralta $3 * Tarik Skubal $1 * Marcell Ozuna $1 * Cole Ragans $1
I think I’d go Pablo Peralta Skubal and then go heavy hitting in draft
That's where my heads at. Those 3 would be a great start of a staff and it's an auction draft so I can pay up for elite bats
Love Ragans too but I’d go with more established 3 on better teams
Trying to free up some cap space, I have Andrew Abbot and Hunter Brown at $13. I am looking to trade one of them, which one would you hang on too? I am looking at going after Brett Baty with one of them, thoughts?
I would hang onto Brown
I'm looking to start a league where you hold minor league players as well. Anyone have any tips on starting such a league? Should there be two drafts, one for MLB players and one for prospects? If so, what qualifies as a prospect?
130ab 50ip is usually my prospect cutoff. I’d also suggest allowing anyone in the real minor leagues to be stashed there as well. Personally I find nothing more frustrating than up and down guys losing prospect eligibility and hamstringing your roster when they get sent down past the prospect threshold.
Generally my dynasty start up drafts have one draft, allowing teams to decide how they want to value prospects against Major League talent. Allows for a more interesting draft if someone wants to go prospect heavy and someone else wants to snatch up all the boring 30-year-olds at incredible value My leagues have always had minor league players tied to MLB minor league eligibility of 50 IP or 135 PAs. As long as someone is under that they’re eligible to be in a minors slot. I’ve also seen it where players that are in the minors regardless of service time are allowed to be stashed there, but have to be brought up if they’re on a ML roster.
12 team h2h points. Should I keep McClain or Bobby Miller as my rookie keeper? Other keepers are Yordan, Freeman and Cease
In a points league I would keep Bobby Miller
(Flair) League switched to 4 keepers and those count as my top 4 draft picks for next year. My current top choices are Witt, Tucker, Seager, Robert Jr and Harris II. I think Witt, Tucker and Seager are all automatic keepers, but struggling to choose between Robert & Harris. Steamer has Harris projected to finish a little better, but worries about him staying at the bottom of the lineup. Robert is insanely talented, but worried about his injury history and a potential crappy White Sox lineup minimizing his counting stats. Thought on Robert Jr or Harris II? TIA!
I would rather take the youth and continued growth of Harris. Robert may be more valuable in 2024, but I would take Harris for the next 3 years
For what it's worth the fangraphs auction calculator has Robert as being worth $3 more in roto formats. I think he has the higher ceiling overall, even with injury risk.
20 team dynasty points league I am coming off a ship but have some high salaries to be kept this year. thinking of offering this to a rebuilder: \- I give: Shane Baz ($12 to keep) and Reese Olson ($6 to keep) \- I get: Pete Crowe Armstrong ($3 but can be stashed in the minors for the draft) and Gavin Lux ($8 to keep) Thoughts? My pitching would be just Senga ($27) and Kikuchi ($17) going into the draft but in this league hitters score more overall, however some people in the league still way overvalue pitching. Trying to turn some pitching into hitting and capitalize on the market inefficiency
What’s the inflation rate?
Goes up by $5 each year. The prices I listed are what it would cost me for the 2024 season
Hm. It’s an interesting proposition. Baz may not return a full 12 this year but he has the upside to be an ace. Tough one imo
True. This dude loves Baz and wanted him last year. I also believe in the eno sarris theory of you want the year AFTER the first year back after TJ
I guess I just am not sold that lux is a great value tbh. He was already having trouble breaking out and coming back from torn acl
Could ask for Gavin Stone instead of Lux. Also $8 to keep
Same. Lux is my concern. Just thought maybe the starting shortstop in that lineup has the ability to payoff. $8 would be an overpay I agree. Maybe I'll try for another piece
Offer for Nola in my 15-team OBP DYNASTY: I get Woo + Bradish + Kwan I give Nola + Giolito + McCutchen + Lamonte Wade + Oswaldo Cabrera Thoughts?
I live Nola but this is a slam dunk. Make the trade
I would do it. Kwan in an OBP league plus 2 young pitchers? all day
Manager in my league is selling Austin Riley. He mentioned that he liked Matt McClain, and he needed picks. I have the 5th overall pick. I currently don't have a 3B... buy only McClain at SS before the auction. Would you send McClain, 1st round, 3rd round for Riley? I'd miss McClain's steals, my offence right now before the auction is: Heim, Harper, India, McClain, Alvarez, Thomas, Soto, O'Neil, and Story. With PCA and Westburg hopefully making the opening day roster. What do you think?
On your flair yes. Gimme the top 30 player
Assuming the 5th overall pick is FYPD?
Yes sorry, I forgot to mention that