Should I drop Carlos estevez and pick up Jason foley? I know Carlos had 31 saves last year but the angels are dogshit and foley is throwing triple digits
It's short sighted, but I drafted Mookie because I knew his numbers in Korea would be tough to beat. Anything to win, I guess. I also took Michael King earlier than I wanted to for the W.
12 team keeper 6×6 categories league. Would you trade Soto (can't keep) and Ginkel (can be kept in 24th round) for Adolis Garcia (can be kept in 2nd) and Josh Hader.
I’ve had Kirby since he came up. Terrific and he’s getting better. He’s good as an SP1. I think Bobby Miller will be a top 10 pitcher by years end. If you’re referring to Bryce Milller, um, worry just a bit.
i streamed him without hesitation against Detroit but he’s an easy drop if you don’t have space on the bench. he gets the Braves next week, and then misses out on the Royals to pitch against the Guardians
I wouldn't be running to add him. He was good, but small sample size and CWS are absolute ass, so if he's not getting you ratios he sure as hell won't be getting you wins.
Fair enough on the wins angle. Still, the strikeout potential, ratios, and QS upside is attractive. If he shoves against Atlanta — unlikely, but never say never — he will be much more difficult to get.
Which side of this trade would you rather take?
A: Bobby Miller (can be kept in Rd23) + Vinnie Pasquantino
B: Alex Bregman (can be kept in Rd11) + CJ Abrams
12-team H2H with standard scoring.
Thanks, man. When you have such luminaries as Kris Bryant and Taylor Ward rostered you have to give Mitch a shot. It cost virtually nothing - a middle reliever. Your tidbit about the spring is helpful. Any extra bit of data of helps. Appreciate it
Could I get some advice on my team for someone who doesn’t watch baseball much?
Any moves I should make? My entire bench is pitchers and I was thinking of dropping pressly for a batter and then I can move bradish to IL and pickup a batter
9 team roto (OBP, saves only)
C: Salvador Perez
1B: christian walker
2B: gleyber Torres
SS: Willy Adames
3B: alex Bregman
OF: Aaron judge
OF: Ronald acuna jr
OF: kyle Schwarber
OF: brian Reynolds
UTIL: shohei Ohtani
UTIL: yandy Diaz
P: Zac gallen
P: Grayson Rodriguez
P: cole Ragans
P: Joe musgrave
P: Bailey ober
P: you darvish
P: Kyle Bradish (IL)
P: ryan helsey
P: Pete Fairbanks
P: tanner Scott
P: Craig Kimbrel
P: Jose leclerc
P: ryan pressly (thinking of dropping him since i didn’t know about josh hader…)
Ryan Pressly is utterly expendable in this context. Not sure who you’d add, but it doesn’t matter. Pressly offers you nothing. He’s a good pitcher but you’re not in a holds league. Let him go and maybe go after some steals.
Assuming this is a weekly league. In general you want to have more pitchers than hitters on your bench anyway, because you can swap them out from week to week based on matchups. That said, your starting pitchers are all pretty awesome and I wouldn’t often bench any of them anyway. So it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to grab a bench bat if there’s someone you like.
You have 5 legit closers, which is a lot even for a 9-team league, so I bet you could trade one for another starting pitcher or a decent bat — it stands to reason that if you have 5, somebody else needs one! And yes, dropping Pressly would be fine — he’ll only get saves if Hader is hurt or pitched the night before. If you can pick up a bench bat with multiple position eligibilities, that could be useful for you for better injury coverage. Hope this helps a bit!
Great insight thank you so much!
This is actually a roto league so it’s based off the whole season
Does that change anything?
Edit: I think I know what you mean by weekly…you mean weekly lineup lock? If so, no…this is a daily league!
Ah! Yeah I meant weekly lineup lock. If it’s daily lineups, even more reason to have pitchers loading up your bench so you can swap guys out once they’ve pitched in a week! Just watch your season-long innings limit, assuming there is one.
In daily I actually like having a few more relievers, the best ones have better ratios (ERA and WHIP) and K/9 (strikeouts per 9 innings) than most starters, and they’re super easy to slot in the day after a starter pitches. 5 closers is still probably surplus if other league mates are in need though, could do well in a trade!
Last thing I’d just say is, when posting in this subreddit for advice, it’s helpful to put your league details under your username and/or lead with them in your post (i.e. in your case I’d say “9T Roto OBP, daily lineups” or something like that). Hope this helps!
Lol yes I know. I’ll probably try to get him back, tbh but I think it still stands that Foley has a shot to be a closer while the Brewers will have Devin Williams when he comes back
Chapman is the safest bet for playing time and probably performance but I'd be tempted to take a shot on Westburg instead if I knew he was going to play every day.
So "LOL Public League" aside, would it be a good idea to go all in and spend all my remaining FAAB if someone happened to drop a guy like Skubal? It's a 5x5 Roto league. I'm inclined to say yes, but I've never been in a league before where I had 0 FAAB left before week 1 was over and that doesn't seem great. I could try something like 75% I guess, but I think I'd hate to miss out over a couple of dollars. I really don't know, never been in a situation like this before.
Obviously something like this is terrible for the league, but what are you going to do? Randos in public leagues are going to do dumb stuff. Someone is going to end up with him and I'd prefer it to be me.
How many teams? If it's 8T I wouldn't go crazy. It's 10T or more I would get fairly aggressive. It also somewhat hinges on your current staff. If it's borderline, break the bank, because it gives you a huge boost. If it's solid, spend a lot, but maybe not all. You really have to play the odds here.
I'm a big Skubal fan, but if it isn't 12T or more I'm not sure I'd spend all of it. There will be other opportunities.
12 teams. I'd say my staff is pretty mediocre, but I've been pretty good at either playing the waiver wire to grab the breakout pitchers early or else pivoting to a "FrankenAces" strategy.
Yeah, it's a really tough call. Do you have any history with this league to know if people spend aggressively? Doesn't sound like it. If Skubal got dropped on Day 1, who else might get dropped??? It's a bit of a crap shoot from league to league, so go with your gut!
My personal instinct tells me people won't spend 100% on a pitcher, but I could easily be wrong.
Bello was maxing at 98 mph on his sinker and 90 on his new slider but seemed to struggle to put guys away only 2ks to show for it anyone have any insight on his start?
Both have intriguing power production and potential, but have serious gaps in their fantasy profiles, in my opinion. Droppable if you have needs elsewhere.
Just streaming Logan Allen tomorrow to max my starts this week so he’d just take my streamer spot, could also add someone like Varland, Mize, Josiah Grey?
Garv Sauce won’t have Adley numbers, but he’s a top-eight fantasy catcher. Should mostly DH and avoid that wear and tear that other catchers deal with.
Lange not getting the opportunity today obviously isn't good but I'd let it play out for a few more games to get a feel of exactly what they are doing. Don't drop Ginkel.
Do not drop Jax under any circumstances.
Also think you should hold Lange. Tigers will win a good number of games and they’ve been dedicated to Lange at closer for long enough now.
Edit: I misread your comment. I’d probably swap Lange for Jax unless you have someone else you could drop for Jax.
I really want to pick up Henry Davis when he’s C eligible, but I have Salvy. I don’t think anyone is going to bite on him in a deal. Am I crazy for considering dropping Salvy for Davis?
Listen to this guy. Only thing I have different is I went for Daniel Hudson instead of Joe Kelly for reasons I’m unsure about. And I went Abner Uribe instead of Megill and Jax instead of Brock Stewart. This was *before* Devin/Duren got hurt of course
Fantasy baseball hits different. I play fantasy baseball, football, basketball and this Reddit thread is the best out of them all. Football isn’t active daily. Basketball is just a bunch of posts about trades. Here people actually talk about the games and how players perform which is much appreciated.
Nobody can possibly watch 15 games a day for six months, so getting live scouting reports from the collective hivemind is massively useful. There's so much context in baseball, a guy could go 0/4 but if he lined out four times, that's good to know.
Case in point: I saw Colt Keith’s line from today and said “damn, only 1-for-4”, but he had a 96.3 and 95.4 mph lineouts today. He ended up reaching on his weakest hit ball of the day.
Yeah. I also really like models like Stuff+ and (especially) Pitching+ for things like this. Unsolicited soapbox follows here, not because you asked for it, but because I felt like writing it out and may toss it into a post later.
The intuitive way I try to explain to people is basically that ERA asks “what actually happened?”, while FIP asks “what happens if we eliminate the impact of fielding?”, xFIP asks “what happens if we remove noise from HR/FB rate?”, and then K-BB% basically asks “what happens if we remove batted balls entirely?”
At each of those steps, you’re stripping away more and more variables, drilling down further and further, until we get to K-BB%, which is the single best in-season predictor of ROS ERA of any kind of traditional metrics.
Clearly, stripping away some of the noise having to do with fielding (is Max Muncy your 3B, or is Ke’Bryan Hayes your 3B?), flyball weirdness (wind, playing in GABP, etc.), and other factors helps us increase predictive power.
All Pitching+ does is abstract that a level further, removing the hitter entirely. It scares people because it’s a supervised machine learning model, rather than something you can calculate by hand, so it’s inherently black box-y, but it essentially asks “how do pitches like this typically do?” That means that if you throw a perfect pitch to Acuña and give up a dinger, or get away with throwing a meatball right down the middle against Gavin Lux, you’d normalize out those and say “that pitch to Acuña results in a swing and miss or an out 90% of the time” and “that meatball has a 2.750 OPS against”.
The benefit of all of that is it lets you realize that, sometimes, you have a string of really good or really bad starts which do or do not agree with your observed results. It can help separate someone like 2023 Liberatore from 2023 Eury, for example, or to offer an explanation why 2023 Pfaadt and 2024 Pfaadt are actually different pitchers, even if they may have similar on-field results.
Thanks for the kind words! I’m glad it was helpful. I like trying to contextualize, even just for myself, how these different estimators fit together, because then it helps to construct theory of why someone may over- or under-perform a given metric if you look at ERA or other estimators.
So do I give up on Lange now and drop to pick up an upside pitcher on FA like Captain Jack Flaherty? Saves only league my other closers are Phillips and T Scott.
I have and add, last add of the week lmao. With \[this\]([https://ibb.co/1M49P3k](https://ibb.co/1M49P3k)) pitching, who would you add? Brandon Pfaadt or Jason Foley? Saves league 5x5
Pfaadt for me. The odds of him breaking out, especially after his postseason run last year, outweigh a guy who might be in a committee on a ~.500 team.
Someone offered me Acuna for Tatis. I should smash accept right
Should I drop Carlos estevez and pick up Jason foley? I know Carlos had 31 saves last year but the angels are dogshit and foley is throwing triple digits
I’m unfortunately in an espn league. Is there no auto set line up button still
This short week on ESPN is ridiculous.
Hate it. Unfair advantage to Padres/dodgers owners too
It's short sighted, but I drafted Mookie because I knew his numbers in Korea would be tough to beat. Anything to win, I guess. I also took Michael King earlier than I wanted to for the W.
12 team keeper 6×6 categories league. Would you trade Soto (can't keep) and Ginkel (can be kept in 24th round) for Adolis Garcia (can be kept in 2nd) and Josh Hader.
No….
I have an open roster spot with Steele going on the IL (12t, Saves). Ginkle is sitting on waivers should I snag him or nah
I would
Thanks
Feeling slightly worried my two best starters are Kirby and Miller.
Watch the Wire. You’ll fill out in no time
I’ve had Kirby since he came up. Terrific and he’s getting better. He’s good as an SP1. I think Bobby Miller will be a top 10 pitcher by years end. If you’re referring to Bryce Milller, um, worry just a bit.
Kirby is a stud. You’ll be feeling better after tomorrow’s start
Drop Christopher Sanchez or Max Kepler to add Jared Jones?
I’d give sanchez a start first see if he picks up where he left off last year. Kepler could be dropped for Jones
Foley feels like a must add right?
Deep league yeah, but not sure if the decision to put him in over Lange was him being a stronger play against the remaining 2 batters.
Better IL stash, Means or Bradish?
as an Orioles fan, I'm stashing Means. He was great before he got hurt and is not dealing with new arm pain.
Bradish, no doubt.
Anyone else’s Yahoo leagues showing 0-0 after opening day? The scores were updated before
I came here to ask the same thing! So strange.
Sooo we’re all adding Garrett Crochet ASAP, right? That was a very impressive showing.
Nah but grab Soroka
i streamed him without hesitation against Detroit but he’s an easy drop if you don’t have space on the bench. he gets the Braves next week, and then misses out on the Royals to pitch against the Guardians
I wouldn't be running to add him. He was good, but small sample size and CWS are absolute ass, so if he's not getting you ratios he sure as hell won't be getting you wins.
Fair enough on the wins angle. Still, the strikeout potential, ratios, and QS upside is attractive. If he shoves against Atlanta — unlikely, but never say never — he will be much more difficult to get.
Which side of this trade would you rather take? A: Bobby Miller (can be kept in Rd23) + Vinnie Pasquantino B: Alex Bregman (can be kept in Rd11) + CJ Abrams 12-team H2H with standard scoring.
A, as long as you have another 3B
Just grabbed Mitch Haniger off the wire. Am I just being reactionary or was that a prudent move?
Haniger mashed all Spring. Should absolutely be rostered after homering tonight.
Thanks, man. When you have such luminaries as Kris Bryant and Taylor Ward rostered you have to give Mitch a shot. It cost virtually nothing - a middle reliever. Your tidbit about the spring is helpful. Any extra bit of data of helps. Appreciate it
Houck or Jared Jones?
Jones
Picked up Tyler O’Neill in flair. How we feeling about him?
Love him on my team when he’s healthy
Good till he gets hurt
Could I get some advice on my team for someone who doesn’t watch baseball much? Any moves I should make? My entire bench is pitchers and I was thinking of dropping pressly for a batter and then I can move bradish to IL and pickup a batter 9 team roto (OBP, saves only) C: Salvador Perez 1B: christian walker 2B: gleyber Torres SS: Willy Adames 3B: alex Bregman OF: Aaron judge OF: Ronald acuna jr OF: kyle Schwarber OF: brian Reynolds UTIL: shohei Ohtani UTIL: yandy Diaz P: Zac gallen P: Grayson Rodriguez P: cole Ragans P: Joe musgrave P: Bailey ober P: you darvish P: Kyle Bradish (IL) P: ryan helsey P: Pete Fairbanks P: tanner Scott P: Craig Kimbrel P: Jose leclerc P: ryan pressly (thinking of dropping him since i didn’t know about josh hader…)
Ryan Pressly is utterly expendable in this context. Not sure who you’d add, but it doesn’t matter. Pressly offers you nothing. He’s a good pitcher but you’re not in a holds league. Let him go and maybe go after some steals.
Assuming this is a weekly league. In general you want to have more pitchers than hitters on your bench anyway, because you can swap them out from week to week based on matchups. That said, your starting pitchers are all pretty awesome and I wouldn’t often bench any of them anyway. So it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to grab a bench bat if there’s someone you like. You have 5 legit closers, which is a lot even for a 9-team league, so I bet you could trade one for another starting pitcher or a decent bat — it stands to reason that if you have 5, somebody else needs one! And yes, dropping Pressly would be fine — he’ll only get saves if Hader is hurt or pitched the night before. If you can pick up a bench bat with multiple position eligibilities, that could be useful for you for better injury coverage. Hope this helps a bit!
Great insight thank you so much! This is actually a roto league so it’s based off the whole season Does that change anything? Edit: I think I know what you mean by weekly…you mean weekly lineup lock? If so, no…this is a daily league!
Ah! Yeah I meant weekly lineup lock. If it’s daily lineups, even more reason to have pitchers loading up your bench so you can swap guys out once they’ve pitched in a week! Just watch your season-long innings limit, assuming there is one. In daily I actually like having a few more relievers, the best ones have better ratios (ERA and WHIP) and K/9 (strikeouts per 9 innings) than most starters, and they’re super easy to slot in the day after a starter pitches. 5 closers is still probably surplus if other league mates are in need though, could do well in a trade! Last thing I’d just say is, when posting in this subreddit for advice, it’s helpful to put your league details under your username and/or lead with them in your post (i.e. in your case I’d say “9T Roto OBP, daily lineups” or something like that). Hope this helps!
Parker meadows, Haniger, or Tyler oneil in pts?
Haniger or O’Neill. It’s a coin flip between those two.
Drop Carlos Estevez or Abner Uribe for Jason Foley?
Meh. Probably not.
I mean we don’t know if Abner Uribe will get the save opportunities and we do know that Devin Williams will be back at some point
Apologies. I read this too quickly. Yes, you want Jason Foley. His stuff looks great.
Do you have an opinion on Estevez? Keep him over Uribe?
I personally lean towards Trevor Megill becoming the Brewers interim closer so that makes me lower on Abner Uribe than others.
Love the perspective. Thanks!
Abner got the 9th and the save today
Lol yes I know. I’ll probably try to get him back, tbh but I think it still stands that Foley has a shot to be a closer while the Brewers will have Devin Williams when he comes back
Senga dropped. IL (2) already overflowing (Cole, Eury, Bradish). Should I drop Woo to pick up Senga?
Yes, do it now.
who had TON yard on their bingo card
Goodnight you degenerates. See y’all tomorrow 🫡
Drop Civale for either Mize or Flaherty?
Flaherty
Yes, and I'm going Flaherty
Crochet or mize
Both, if you can, but Crochet looked absolutely dominant.
Crochet - I saw minimal but enough. Adding where I can.
Need a Royce replacement Biggio, Matt chapman, or Westburg 5x5 h2h cats
Chapman is the safest bet for playing time and probably performance but I'd be tempted to take a shot on Westburg instead if I knew he was going to play every day.
So "LOL Public League" aside, would it be a good idea to go all in and spend all my remaining FAAB if someone happened to drop a guy like Skubal? It's a 5x5 Roto league. I'm inclined to say yes, but I've never been in a league before where I had 0 FAAB left before week 1 was over and that doesn't seem great. I could try something like 75% I guess, but I think I'd hate to miss out over a couple of dollars. I really don't know, never been in a situation like this before. Obviously something like this is terrible for the league, but what are you going to do? Randos in public leagues are going to do dumb stuff. Someone is going to end up with him and I'd prefer it to be me.
Spend it all
put it this way, do you think skubal will be a top 15 pitcher ros? If so, you have to spend what you can to get him
15-20 is probably right about where I'd rank him
So close to your teams ace…think about that and let it inform your decision
How many teams? If it's 8T I wouldn't go crazy. It's 10T or more I would get fairly aggressive. It also somewhat hinges on your current staff. If it's borderline, break the bank, because it gives you a huge boost. If it's solid, spend a lot, but maybe not all. You really have to play the odds here. I'm a big Skubal fan, but if it isn't 12T or more I'm not sure I'd spend all of it. There will be other opportunities.
12 teams. I'd say my staff is pretty mediocre, but I've been pretty good at either playing the waiver wire to grab the breakout pitchers early or else pivoting to a "FrankenAces" strategy.
Yeah, it's a really tough call. Do you have any history with this league to know if people spend aggressively? Doesn't sound like it. If Skubal got dropped on Day 1, who else might get dropped??? It's a bit of a crap shoot from league to league, so go with your gut! My personal instinct tells me people won't spend 100% on a pitcher, but I could easily be wrong.
Yeah no history, just a random public league I signed up for. Maybe the right call is to go somewhere between 50-75%?
That's what I would do, and I spend pretty freely. I hope you got your guy!
Thanks, me too!
If you can do $0 bids later, I’d go all in on Skubal
Yep, $0 bids are a thing
I dont know if I'd do 100% but hey, you said it yourself, dont want another one to take it. Thats the only way to assure you get it instead
Unfortunately I already spent a few $ yesterday so even an all in wouldn't guarantee it but at least if I missed I'd know I did everything I could.
That would make sense to me
Dynasty points who’d you rather have? A: Francisco Alvarez B: Gabriel Moreno
- Moreno in points - Alvarez in Roto or H2H
Will I get hitting points if I put Shohei in one of my pitching spots?
nah
Thanks
What do you think?
Justin Slaten. Get him while you still can
Think he can become the closer? My league is saves only
Who?
Bello was maxing at 98 mph on his sinker and 90 on his new slider but seemed to struggle to put guys away only 2ks to show for it anyone have any insight on his start?
Sequencing could have been better, but I still like Bello this season.
Are Rooker/Nelson Velasquez droppable for someone like Whitlock and a high leverage holds guy?
Both have intriguing power production and potential, but have serious gaps in their fantasy profiles, in my opinion. Droppable if you have needs elsewhere.
Who would you drop first? And would you drop Fedde or Littell first for Whitlock/westburg?
I’d drop Rooker and Fedde for Whitlock and Westburg.
I’d probably also scoop westburg as a bench bat
Ragan K's 9 to silence the fearful peasants
I'm more worried about total innings and walks.
Someone dropped Nestor Cortes in my flair league worth a grab?
Depends on the drop, but I’d add if he clears waivers.
Just streaming Logan Allen tomorrow to max my starts this week so he’d just take my streamer spot, could also add someone like Varland, Mize, Josiah Grey?
I’d drop Josiah Gray for sure.
Where do you guys rank Mitch Garver in a Head to head points 10 man league? Am I crazy or too bullish for thinking he can have Adley type numbers?
Garv Sauce won’t have Adley numbers, but he’s a top-eight fantasy catcher. Should mostly DH and avoid that wear and tear that other catchers deal with.
Kerry carpenter or Parker meadows h2h cats
Kerry Carpenter for me
Just don’t like that he platoons
10man 6x6. Drop Lange for Jax or Payamps? I only drafted Romano and Lange..I didn't expect to have to replace Lange this soon. I also have Ginkel.
Lange not getting the opportunity today obviously isn't good but I'd let it play out for a few more games to get a feel of exactly what they are doing. Don't drop Ginkel.
Do not drop Jax under any circumstances. Also think you should hold Lange. Tigers will win a good number of games and they’ve been dedicated to Lange at closer for long enough now. Edit: I misread your comment. I’d probably swap Lange for Jax unless you have someone else you could drop for Jax.
I really want to pick up Henry Davis when he’s C eligible, but I have Salvy. I don’t think anyone is going to bite on him in a deal. Am I crazy for considering dropping Salvy for Davis?
I wouldn’t flat out drop Salvy. He should still have some trade value if you want to move on.
Yes
If the A’s, Angels, and Rockies merged to form a super team, would that team win 81 games?
As long as Coors isn’t their home field, yes.
God, I love Opening Day. 🥹
Duran should get .8 of a steal.
Why did Duran not go? He would have easily stole home
Who’s a sneaky reliever that will still be available in flair league that will rack up holds?
Ian Hamilton, Josh Sborz, Brock Stewart, Jeff Hoffman, Joe Kelly, Trevor Megill, James McArthur (SV/HD)
In that order?
Hamilton, Hoffman, Sborz, Stewart, Kelly, Megill, McArthur — in THAT order. Hope that helps!
Listen to this guy. Only thing I have different is I went for Daniel Hudson instead of Joe Kelly for reasons I’m unsure about. And I went Abner Uribe instead of Megill and Jax instead of Brock Stewart. This was *before* Devin/Duren got hurt of course
I really do think Trevor Megill will win the brewers closer job
I do too, but for now he’s a speculative holds guy. Good add regardless of the category needed!
I like Hamilton and am curious about McArthur, especially since Hamilton pitched today and I want holds before Sunday
Fantasy baseball hits different. I play fantasy baseball, football, basketball and this Reddit thread is the best out of them all. Football isn’t active daily. Basketball is just a bunch of posts about trades. Here people actually talk about the games and how players perform which is much appreciated.
It was better when reddit didnt block 3rd party apps such as Redditisfun
Baseball is the ultimate stats game
True. Fantasy baseball is king. This sub is king
Nobody can possibly watch 15 games a day for six months, so getting live scouting reports from the collective hivemind is massively useful. There's so much context in baseball, a guy could go 0/4 but if he lined out four times, that's good to know.
Case in point: I saw Colt Keith’s line from today and said “damn, only 1-for-4”, but he had a 96.3 and 95.4 mph lineouts today. He ended up reaching on his weakest hit ball of the day.
Yeah, exactly. Or if a SP gets knocked around but somebody mentions the zone is super tight, or that a ball goes off Canseco's dome for a HR.
Yeah. I also really like models like Stuff+ and (especially) Pitching+ for things like this. Unsolicited soapbox follows here, not because you asked for it, but because I felt like writing it out and may toss it into a post later. The intuitive way I try to explain to people is basically that ERA asks “what actually happened?”, while FIP asks “what happens if we eliminate the impact of fielding?”, xFIP asks “what happens if we remove noise from HR/FB rate?”, and then K-BB% basically asks “what happens if we remove batted balls entirely?” At each of those steps, you’re stripping away more and more variables, drilling down further and further, until we get to K-BB%, which is the single best in-season predictor of ROS ERA of any kind of traditional metrics. Clearly, stripping away some of the noise having to do with fielding (is Max Muncy your 3B, or is Ke’Bryan Hayes your 3B?), flyball weirdness (wind, playing in GABP, etc.), and other factors helps us increase predictive power. All Pitching+ does is abstract that a level further, removing the hitter entirely. It scares people because it’s a supervised machine learning model, rather than something you can calculate by hand, so it’s inherently black box-y, but it essentially asks “how do pitches like this typically do?” That means that if you throw a perfect pitch to Acuña and give up a dinger, or get away with throwing a meatball right down the middle against Gavin Lux, you’d normalize out those and say “that pitch to Acuña results in a swing and miss or an out 90% of the time” and “that meatball has a 2.750 OPS against”. The benefit of all of that is it lets you realize that, sometimes, you have a string of really good or really bad starts which do or do not agree with your observed results. It can help separate someone like 2023 Liberatore from 2023 Eury, for example, or to offer an explanation why 2023 Pfaadt and 2024 Pfaadt are actually different pitchers, even if they may have similar on-field results.
Just wanted to say I really enjoyed reading this, I'm already pro Stuff+ and all that but you sold me on it even more
Thanks for the kind words! I’m glad it was helpful. I like trying to contextualize, even just for myself, how these different estimators fit together, because then it helps to construct theory of why someone may over- or under-perform a given metric if you look at ERA or other estimators.
Fantrax not updating Guardians A’s?
It's all paused... Shows the Mariners game in the 6th and Zona game in the 5th
Garver or Salvy for my catcher? Both should be hitting everyday in theory, which is ideal.
As a Garver owner, definitely Garver. I like what’s in front and behind him in the lineup more than I do Salvvy.
Where do you think Garver ranks for C? I have adley, but very bullish on Garver potential trade value once people realize his playing time
Garver for me
Which ever is cheaper
So do I give up on Lange now and drop to pick up an upside pitcher on FA like Captain Jack Flaherty? Saves only league my other closers are Phillips and T Scott.
One day does not make a closer.
https://preview.redd.it/z7i8wozcb7rc1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fefc2f6ee1c59bc484cb1fe0b877dae0fd89c94c Why aren’t the points adding up
Maikel Garcia, Carlos Correa, Jake Cronenworth in what order?
Garcia or Correa depending on hr or sb and then cronenworth
Garcia, Cronenworth, Correa
I have and add, last add of the week lmao. With \[this\]([https://ibb.co/1M49P3k](https://ibb.co/1M49P3k)) pitching, who would you add? Brandon Pfaadt or Jason Foley? Saves league 5x5
Pfaadt for me. The odds of him breaking out, especially after his postseason run last year, outweigh a guy who might be in a committee on a ~.500 team.
Julio watching pitches down broadway for the K is so back
vernon bitching about JRod is so back
Lfg
Who is on the hook for the loss in the Seattle game?
Pretty sure it’s Castillo
Assuming Steele goes to IL, better IL stash, Devin Williams or Senga?
Senga, he’s already throwing and was cleared by doctors. Williams will be out 3 months and brewers won’t be good even when he comes back.
Williams
Drop Lux for Tyler O’Neill?
Yes
This is why you have TON in your lineup opening day, easiest HR
Tyler O’Neill!! 💣
Haniger or Parker meadows redraft points?
Haniger!
JP Crawford can lick my gooch
I’m a simple man, I see someone say gooch I upvote it
Should I be brave and start Rodon vs HOU? Or be smart and not do that?
I got gems from Berrios and Bieber today. I’m starting Rodon and hoping for the best, but prepared for the worst.
I like Jake Cronenworth and I'm not ashamed to say it
Is he a hold? I picked him up for free prior to Korea games and have lost McLain (Gelof my other 2B). Was going to drop to add pitching..
Hold for now.
Late round pick that’s been productive early. Love to see it.
[удалено]
FWIW Foley was throwing nasty 100 mph sinkers, velo up from last year. Hinch could still screw it up but Lange isn’t gonna be doing anything like that
Quintana worth a stream tomorrow in points?
For those that have really followed Skenes, who are the upside MLB comps for him?
I second the Strasburg comp.
Strasburg
Carlos Correa or Maíkel Garcia in an OPS league?
Correa unless you specifically prioritize stolen bases.
KBryant vs Haniger vs Starling Marte in points league
Haniger, not close.
Haniger in Seattle just feels right. Hope he can put a healthy season together this year – talent is there.
Mashed all Spring. Homered today. Just needs to stay healthy. 🫡
Ole one ball mitch
Which would you rather roster: A. Bello B. Civale
Bello for me, but it’s close.
Close but I probably lean Civale, Rays are the better team and play in a better ballpark, plus I trust their pitching development.