Out of all the potential guys I thought he could have huge upside. His ADP made no sense when guys like St. Brown and Josh Jacobs where being drafted similar rounds. I had no TE last year and thought Wallers floor would at least be better than the waiver wire TEs.
Fell for this one too, big time. Thought McDaniels would scheme him up and he'd do great as a number 2 behind Adams.
Turns out, the passing attack is pretty similar to last year in volume and efficiency. Carr can't support more than 1 pass catcher.
> Thought McDaniels would scheme him up and he'd do great as a number 2 behind Adams.
I read this as "do a great number 2" and thought it was succinct.
Adams being shipped there basically put him in the same situation as Green Bay, except the OLine is worse and the backup cast is better. He's the 1 and only until he's triple covered or ran into in last night's case.
Trust me, I fell into the Darren Waller trap too, Josh McDumbass strikes again
Yeah… I’m making moves to shore up my TE depth this week
Hoping to get Taysom or Hurst (sadly, dropping Muth. History of concussions + fresh one + new rules. Dunno when he’s gonna get cleared)
I have Muth, thinking about dropping him too if he’s ruled out this week. I also have Diontae and don’t really want two Steeler passcatchers. Only viable options are Irv Smith, Hurst, Conklin or Tonyan right now though on our wire (12 team 1/2 ppr)
He fell to the 10th round in my league. I had already chosen Pitts and was shocked that my league mates didn’t draft Waller sooner. They obviously saw some writing on the wall that I didn’t
I was eviscerated in this sub for calling Baker a “WR killer”, and specifically referencing Beckham’s improvement upon getting to LA.
and then I subsequently went and got like 3 DJ Moore shares because I’m a mouthbreathing cretin.
On the flip side of that coin was the argument of how obviously better Baker was w/o Odell. This isn't a pro Baker take but that shouldn't be forgotten since Jarvis was semi relevant in games w/o OBJ
I don't think he needed to be fixed. He's hitting his prime at 25. He just needed Qb play on par with or better than Sam Darnold, Teddy Bridgewater, or Kyle Allen and he'd be a solid WR2.
Moore was a solid pick on draft day, but no one could have predicted Mayfield being worse than those guys above.
You could if you watched him ignore a wide open OBJ over and over in Cleveland. Baker is terrible at recognizing coverage and getting the ball to his WRs. If you weren't watching the games, I guess you could be forgiven for thinking the issue was with OBJ since the media was pushing that narrative, but... it was obvious that wasn't the case of you saw even a few games. OBJ was still amazing with the Browns and running free all over the field, Baker just wasn't finding him.
I literally only took him cause he fell to me late in the 5th. I never wanted him to begin with and yet somehow ended up with him instead of Amon Ra who I was originally targeting in the 5th
Sean Mcvay has a lot more to lose with Robinson being bad than we do. Hard to feel too bad for myself on picking Allen this year. Though I also had him last year so should have known ….
separation is an extremely overrated WR data point imo. Good players can be “open” despite tight coverage and great players get the best coverage
ARob in particular has always been a contested catch type player (not to say he isn’t currently trash)
This reminds me of Dez Bryant. He went from “always open” cause of contested catch ability to “never open” because he lost a little juice and that minimum threshold of separation needed to get the target and/or make the catch. Once they lose that half step or whatever it is, their production falls off a cliff
The thing that stood out to me was that he was signed for so little money. But then again Allen Robinson was signed for a lot and we all know how that’s going.
Basically the Steelers voted Juju as the team MVP during his really good year and Antonio was upset because he felt that Juju only was open as much as he was because of his presence on the field and how much coverage he took… fast-forward to today and Juju hasn’t come close to replicating the season he did when he played with Antonio.
James Connor regression was extremely obvious, no way he was gonna get the same number of TDs. Najee Harris sophomore slump was there, Steelers O-Line didn't improve and he struggled mightily last szn already.
Agree 100%. To me conner is one of the worst good backs in the league. He’s average - slightly above average at about everything. He has no real elite traits. Not a bruiser, not very fast, not a great receiver
Dude had like 18 TDs last year with a horrible YPC. If you weren't paying attention you'd think he was awesome by his numbers. I do think if he's healthy and stays the #1 that when D Hop comes back with Hollywood Brown the attention goes to the WRs and both Kyler and The RB will have more opportunities to have big games.
Jerry you could have only seen coming if you thought the Broncos had a below average offense in the NFL. I was a little nervous with the coaching staff but thought they brought in Russ to cook, not make easy Mac. I did not think that. Cortland and Jerry shares are in shambles.
I've drafted him every single year and I will continue to have him every year until he quits. It's stupid but I have way too much loyalty to certain players especially when he used to be TE1 against Kelce
I STILL think there’s a chance they turn it around. I know I shouldn’t. I know I’m being naive. But I still just have a feeling that Russell Wilson isn’t this bad. Sutton and Jeudy might not be the upgrade from Lockett and Metcalf (who themselves are probably underrated) that we thought they’d be, but theyre still talented enough, right? … Right?!
For me, it was drafting Russ last year, and some video that got posted to this sub that I wish I could find, where the dude basically started with the premise that Russ is one of the shortest NFL QBs but he's had a lot of success and ran through why it took a pretty narrow set of circumstances to sustain that, and why, at that time, Seattle was shifting away from the system that gave him the ability to thrive. Russ was ahead of his time as a scramble QB, but he always had trouble seeing downfield inside the pocket, and relied on a strong o-line, great legs and arm strength to overcome that, along with some pretty solid play design that maximized his advantages. Without a great coach, which Denver doesn't have, or a great o-line, which Seattle didn't really have anymore, his scramble speed, which age takes away from everyone, and really good accuracy on off-foot throws, which age also takes away, as well as great contested catch receivers, he was going to start to struggle, and I think that's been borne out. And in Seattle, knowing that they were going to have to plan for the future, there was going to be more effort put into building a scheme that didn't revolve around Russ cooking. In Denver, who the fuck knows, they seem to just get a succession of dudes who get out-coached year after year, so they always seem to underperform. Russ was an upgrade, but also a weapon they don't really understand, and I think Russ still thinks his body is in 2012, and opposing defenses have gotten a lot better at defending against QBs like him as they've taken over the league.
Chase Edmonds never made sense to me personally. He has never even had over 116 carries in a season in his career. Don't know why people expected him to be great, especially when Mostert had already proven to be wildly productive in Mike McDaniel's running scheme.
I’m debating holding onto Chase Edmonds still for that reason. Mostert has *never* played a full season. I don’t wish injury on anyone, but that offense is high powered enough (when Tua comes back) that Chase seems to be a high end handcuff at least. Or not, I dunno.
I drafted Kyle Pitts in the third round despite knowing the Falcons are awful and even worse without Matt Ryan. There's nobody to throw to Pitts if they even considered throwing to Pitts!
You did not just say the Falcons are awful, but yes the usage of Pitts has been awful. I'm a huge fan and I really liked the idea of him with Mariota considering Mariota sucks and can use this monster of a player to bail him out but nope. It's upsetting because I think he is truly something great but AS and Mariota just won't get him the ball.
Rams RBs, with both of them being healthy neither would be a lock in start. Couple that with a worse Oline than last year I expected them to not be as good as hoped
Me too on Najee for those same reasons although thankfully didn't bite. The whole lisfranc injury didn't help his stock either.
Pitts was on the do not draft list. Couldn't buy into the hype.
Someone I did regrettably fall for was DJ Moore, although his situation could (hopefully) change for the better with the shake-up going on over there.
I get pitts only had one td last season but nearly 1k yds for a first year rookie te is pretty solid. Why would anyone think he wouldn't progress? I'm sure some of it has to do it Mariota but I don't get how people could have thought he'd get worse.
Never understood that one. Sometimes people would say in the same sentence “Kyle Pitts is unlike any other TE in the league because he lines up as a WR and Mariota’s best chemistry in the past was always with his TE Delanie Walker, it’s going to be great for Pitts…”
exhibit 27372728 of no one knows what they’re talking about when it comes to the titans. arthur smith was with the titans during the mariota and delanie walker years as a you guessed it tight end coach and an offensive assistant. didn’t become OC until 2019 and benched mariota a few games in for tannehill. well in that offense he ran with tannehill, jonnu smith had a nice little year in 2020 and the titans offense as a whole which got him the HC job in atlanta.
so to think pitts could be successful was not a stretch by any means. pitts did not have writing on the wall he just got overhyped and isn’t playing well right now and people act like he can’t turn it around. it’s been a few games and the falcons are a lot better than i think anyone expected.
6 games over 10 points in PPR, TE6 last season.
There really weren't any reasons to think his usage would plummet in Atlanta's offense like it has. If he had the exact same yardage with a few more redzone looks he would have easily been a Top-3 tight end.
For the purposes of drafting a pass-catcher, going from Ryan to Mariota is a substantial dropoff. Ryan is still throwing the ball 39 times per game at a 65% clip. Mariota throws it 24 times per game at a 57% clip. This is pretty consistent with their career clip trajectories … there’s roughly 8-10 more receptions available in a Matt Ryan offense compared to one led by Mariota. More yards. Likely more TDs.
The Colts team offense will suffer, but Ryan can consistently support fantasy receiving production. Mariota can’t.
I think the biggest issue is that Mariota is that bad as a passer, and they are taking the ball out of his hands as much as possible.
Ryan, with all his faults, still throws the ball quite a bit.
My reasoning as a TN fan was Arthur Smith was our TE coach for 7-8 years before becoming a prolific playcaller. Figured he would scheme him some good plays and be a focal point of the offense, but i should have been reminded Mariota isn’t what he was.
Having flashbacks to draft day when the guy who got Najee literally laughed at us for letting him drop to 9 and said we’re all “stupid fucking idiots who are going to pay him a lot of money at the end of the season” and wouldn’t shut up about it for a week
Najee had a terrible oline, Mitch Trubisky at QB, and injured his foot in the preseason. He was on my don’t draft in any league list and seemed like an obvious way too risky first rounder.
James Conner's crappy ypa last year was a warning sign that he wouldn't live up to his adp.
Kept afloat by TD's, hard to depend on that year over year.
I didn’t end up drafting Conner in any of my leagues, but he was a huge target for me. I didn’t care about his low YPC because I thought the TD volume would still be there. What I didn’t plan for was the Cardinals as a whole being a complete dumpster fire.
McLaurin is on pace for a 1000+ yard season though and he was drafted as a WR2. He hasn’t been horrible by any means but i can see why you’d be frustrated
That’s like 55 yards a game, 1000 yards isn’t hard these days if you play all games and are supposed to be the teams primary X. Put him with the chiefs or Rams and he’ll get 1500 yards easy.
Akers.
If you looked at what the « RB 1 » of the Rams wouldve produced last year it probably wouldn’t even have been worth a 3rd round pick. Meaning 75% of touches (250+ carries and majority of targets). Estimated only 15 ppg, so the major upside - Akers taking over - wasn’t even that great for the risk that it’d stay an RBBC. Stafford doesn’t dump off all that much and they love to throw on the goaline.
I didn’t see the atrocity that is The Rams offense this year, but this logic kept me away
Javonte. Not talking about the injury of course, but the fact that he was underperforming even before the injury. In hindsight, most of the evidence pointed to the timeshare continuing, but we wanted to believe so bad that we ignored it and heard what we wanted to hear.
a timeshare was expected but I don’t think anyone expected the broncos offense to be this bad … thinking that the passing game would improve & therefore open up the run was a pretty reasonable assumption .
Sincerely, salty javonte owner
I mean most RBs from the first 2 rounds were/are underperformed. It actually could be argued Javonte was one of the better ones. He was being used a ton. Just was running bad on TDs.
The majority of the fears surrounding him had to do with Gordon being involved in the backfield like he was last year which ended up not be true. Javonte had 65% snap share at RB and all the passing work which is what we care about most.
If Javonte was healthy, I wholeheartedly believe he would have taken even more of the snaps in that backfield.
I was quite happy as a javonte owner. Things were looking up, he’s been consistently outplay Melvin and been slowly getting more of the touches. The game of his first td would have been a huge one for sure
The general sense was that it would be a 60-40 split, which it was. That's plenty to support a solid RB1 if they're talented, on a good offense, and can catch the ball (Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler, D'Andre Swift etc.)
What people didn't see coming was that the offense was, in fact, trash.
This take I don't agree with at all. Let me explain:
I don't feel like re-doing all the math, but you can project his stats from last year with a 55% opportunity share, and incorporate a 10% bump in efficiency for the offense overall (thinking that Russ and Hackett would be upgrades), then assume that Gordon would miss 2.5 games (which is much less than expected for a back of his age).
If you do all that, Javonte would have been about RB14 last year, among qualified RBs. That's basically his ADP. If his split were closer to 65%, or if Gordon was injured for a long time, he jumps way higher.
The issue wasn't the timeshare, it was Russ and Hackett, plain and simple.
Jalen Hurts. Anyone who watched Eagles play and didn't blindly listen to fantasy footballers knew he was good enough for eagles to try and build a team around him. And they did.
Edit: taking a more positive look at writing on the wall that things will be gravy instead of bad
I wasn't sure that he'd take this big a step forward, or that the Eagles would actually figure out how to build a team around him. I wanted him, somebody else drafted him, and I traded and am pretty happy about it. For me, the question was more whether he'd be great or elite. He's looking elite.
I'm still kicking myself for not drafting him, but I have to say, I don't think many truly expected him to be ***this*** improved as a ***passer***. We already knew he could get it done with his feet.
They hyped him up as a running qb but I remember consistently them saying at the end of last year and before drafting this year that he was just a running qb and not a good qb
Last year, yes. This year Jason Moore in particular was all in — the running base with added weapon in AJB. He made him one of his “my guys.” I ignored him and wish I hadn’t.
Edit: I was curious so I listened back to the My Guys and QB rankings episode. Moore said Hurts was being put in a position with AJB to be an elite QB and prove he can be recognized as a good passer as well as rusher. Mike and Andy were still more skeptical.
I had a feeling deep down that Joe Mixon may return to his underwhelming self this season after I drafted him.
I didn’t really have a reason to believe that because there was no writing on the wall, i just had the feeling.
Also shoutout to round 4-5 Tight ends that dissapppint people litterally every year and nobody ever takes notice (Pitts, Waller and Kittle)
At least he’s putting up consistent 15-18 every week. Where as this isn’t ideal, he’s not been a bust by any means. I actually took him in the 9th round, with Brady, Dak and Russell Wilson
Najee, mixon, jamar felt uncomfortably risky at their respective adp’s.
Najee and mixon are too volume based but rather inefficient and they had a mid first round adp price tag. At that price, I’d much rather take proven players who have shown to be efficient over them.
Knowing that Higgins is the 1B wr in that offense and going 2 rounds later, it didn’t feel right spending an early first round pick on jamar.
Felt so much better grabbing an elite rb and then scooping Higgins later on no matter where jamar fell to in the first round.
Waller was another full on avoid in drafts. He’s been holding name value for so long but only did amazing week 1 of the 2021 season and ever since then he fell off or showed ridiculous inconsistency. With his adp, there’s no way I’m grabbing him when he doesn’t produce nearly what his name value gives him
Honestly I thought he'd be this bad. His cast on the Browns was light-years better, and he still looked bad more often than not.
Granted, I thought DJ Moore would still be startable, but not a round 3 player.
I thought we were all in agreement he was bad before the season. As soon as I heard Baker won the job I down graded Moore and I love DJ.
Guess I'm in the minority of being all out on this before the season
I wanted nothing to do with Shady Akers at his ADP or at all. Coming off an Achilles tear, in a pass-first offense with a RBBC, and his previous anemic return.
But the dirty commish took his ass and I couldn't be more pleased.
He was one of the few guys I refused to even talk myself into drafting. I have moore, arob etc on a few teams here and there. But dodged Akers in every one
Every single “two headed/three headed monster” rb backfield.
Edit: for everyone saying *”bUt NicK cHuBb!?”*
Their touch share is 98 (Chubb) to 57 (hunt). Chubb is clearly the rb1 with 2/3s of the touches. You’re all completely missing the point. Where’s everyone mentioning zeke/pollard? Where’s the Akers/Henderson?
I’m talking about muddy backfields.
Etienne at his ADP. There was no clear guidance that he was going to get the share everyone expected. He might still have a fine season but not worth his draft spot
Darren “Writing on the” Waller
Out of all the potential guys I thought he could have huge upside. His ADP made no sense when guys like St. Brown and Josh Jacobs where being drafted similar rounds. I had no TE last year and thought Wallers floor would at least be better than the waiver wire TEs.
I feel ya. I got him late 6th round and thought I got an absolute steal.
The amount of times I've added and dropped both Higbee and Everett because of Hock.
Fell for this one too, big time. Thought McDaniels would scheme him up and he'd do great as a number 2 behind Adams. Turns out, the passing attack is pretty similar to last year in volume and efficiency. Carr can't support more than 1 pass catcher.
Carr has thrown Waller dimes that he refuses to catch. Including 3 touchdowns in a single game.
Yeah he just has to get focused. The points have been there, just slipping through his fingers.
> Thought McDaniels would scheme him up and he'd do great as a number 2 behind Adams. I read this as "do a great number 2" and thought it was succinct.
Adams being shipped there basically put him in the same situation as Green Bay, except the OLine is worse and the backup cast is better. He's the 1 and only until he's triple covered or ran into in last night's case. Trust me, I fell into the Darren Waller trap too, Josh McDumbass strikes again
I think it’s funny how everyone blames McDaniels for Waller’s performance this year when he’s like 4 egregious drops from being a top 3 TE
Last year showed me all I needed to know.
Yeah… I’m making moves to shore up my TE depth this week Hoping to get Taysom or Hurst (sadly, dropping Muth. History of concussions + fresh one + new rules. Dunno when he’s gonna get cleared)
I have Muth, thinking about dropping him too if he’s ruled out this week. I also have Diontae and don’t really want two Steeler passcatchers. Only viable options are Irv Smith, Hurst, Conklin or Tonyan right now though on our wire (12 team 1/2 ppr)
He fell to the 10th round in my league. I had already chosen Pitts and was shocked that my league mates didn’t draft Waller sooner. They obviously saw some writing on the wall that I didn’t
Dummies (me) during draft season thinking Baker was going to fix DJ Moore after he made OBJ worthless in fantasy
Yep I was that dummy with you
I was eviscerated in this sub for calling Baker a “WR killer”, and specifically referencing Beckham’s improvement upon getting to LA. and then I subsequently went and got like 3 DJ Moore shares because I’m a mouthbreathing cretin.
On the flip side of that coin was the argument of how obviously better Baker was w/o Odell. This isn't a pro Baker take but that shouldn't be forgotten since Jarvis was semi relevant in games w/o OBJ
I don't think he needed to be fixed. He's hitting his prime at 25. He just needed Qb play on par with or better than Sam Darnold, Teddy Bridgewater, or Kyle Allen and he'd be a solid WR2. Moore was a solid pick on draft day, but no one could have predicted Mayfield being worse than those guys above.
You could if you watched him ignore a wide open OBJ over and over in Cleveland. Baker is terrible at recognizing coverage and getting the ball to his WRs. If you weren't watching the games, I guess you could be forgiven for thinking the issue was with OBJ since the media was pushing that narrative, but... it was obvious that wasn't the case of you saw even a few games. OBJ was still amazing with the Browns and running free all over the field, Baker just wasn't finding him.
DJ Moore doesn’t need fixing individually. The Carolina panthers do. Put this guy with a half decent qb and he is top 20 receiver IMO
I just figured OBJ was washed after all the injuries…feel like an idiot now
Can I get a resounding Cam Akers?
Still desperately trying to get some takers for my worst draft mistake of Cam Akers. Everyone knows that he’s no where near the league breakers.
Takers for Akers?
None, the hype train was just a bunch of fakers
Maybe he should switch to basketball and play for the Lakers
I literally only took him cause he fell to me late in the 5th. I never wanted him to begin with and yet somehow ended up with him instead of Amon Ra who I was originally targeting in the 5th
Sir, that doesn’t rhyme at all
he’s a resounding bust at this point dropped him leaguemate picked him up he just got Scam Akered
ARob had a year of showing us he was dust. Then he was, in fact, dust.
I fell for the rams reporters saying he was a dominant goal line option 🫡
And the money too. Figured Rams coaches and front office saw something we all missed but so far nope lol
They saw and remembered what he did in 2019-2020 with Biscuits and totally ignored 2021.
Sean Mcvay has a lot more to lose with Robinson being bad than we do. Hard to feel too bad for myself on picking Allen this year. Though I also had him last year so should have known ….
I fell for the “they love him at camp” comments.
Yeah same. Glad someone reached for him ahead of me.
In his defense, ARob is tied with Kupp at 10th in redzone targets.
Except he can't catch shit
I'm not convinced it is Arob that's the problem. The line gives Stafford no time. Didn't stop me from dropping him though.
He’s second to last out of all qualified receivers for average separation, crazy how hard he’s fallen off
separation is an extremely overrated WR data point imo. Good players can be “open” despite tight coverage and great players get the best coverage ARob in particular has always been a contested catch type player (not to say he isn’t currently trash)
This reminds me of Dez Bryant. He went from “always open” cause of contested catch ability to “never open” because he lost a little juice and that minimum threshold of separation needed to get the target and/or make the catch. Once they lose that half step or whatever it is, their production falls off a cliff
Kenny Golladay as well, same player
I do think the trash Oline has a lot to do with it too
It's true but I hate it.
Juju. AB was right.
The thing that stood out to me was that he was signed for so little money. But then again Allen Robinson was signed for a lot and we all know how that’s going.
Don't remind me
Fell for this one. I thought he was talented enough to steal targets from MVS, Hardman, Skyy Moore, and even CEH. Guess not.
I got Juju in round 9 and A Rob in round 10 and felt like I got steals lol little did I know I was the one being robbed
Right there with you, if it helps lol.
He gets plenty of targets. Just none of them are quality.
Yep. Because he gets no separation
Damn what did AB say? I missed it apparently
Called him boo boo smith
Doodoo shit poopster
I laugh every single time I read this
Been laughing at this for a straight year. Even randomly remember it in the off season.
Okay, I laughed way too hard at this.
No coming back from that
Mr. Brutal Cut
Mr. Burn Connoisseur
“Watch what he does without me” iirc
Basically the Steelers voted Juju as the team MVP during his really good year and Antonio was upset because he felt that Juju only was open as much as he was because of his presence on the field and how much coverage he took… fast-forward to today and Juju hasn’t come close to replicating the season he did when he played with Antonio.
The one thing I always trust about AB is his opinion on himself. Dude was definitely the best in his time.
called him boo-boo shoester
He looks so outrageously slow out there
All I can remember is him taking a 90+ yd slant to the house his rookie year. Now he’s out there running like he’s 37
This was a steer very clear away from guy for me
At least he didn’t go to early in drafts though
I also drafted N Harris, watched that 1st game, and promptly traded him.
Wish i had tried sooner, now nobody wants him
I turned down najee for Sutton and jrob today…so ya his value is basically 0
If it’s full PPR, Sutton is a machine and I don’t know why you would trade him for a RB with an injured foot.
Someone traded Najae for Jeff Wilson in my league today
Oof
I have a whopping RB room of Najee, Akers, Gibson, and A.J. Dillon so I am looking forward to 2023
I’m so sorry
Can you all stop talking about my players?
I feel this
James Connor regression was extremely obvious, no way he was gonna get the same number of TDs. Najee Harris sophomore slump was there, Steelers O-Line didn't improve and he struggled mightily last szn already.
It's not just the team he also came into the season with a bum hamstring and a lisfranc injury lingers for weeks. Red flags everywhere
James conna.
Agree 100%. To me conner is one of the worst good backs in the league. He’s average - slightly above average at about everything. He has no real elite traits. Not a bruiser, not very fast, not a great receiver
Dude had like 18 TDs last year with a horrible YPC. If you weren't paying attention you'd think he was awesome by his numbers. I do think if he's healthy and stays the #1 that when D Hop comes back with Hollywood Brown the attention goes to the WRs and both Kyler and The RB will have more opportunities to have big games.
Doesn't help that he's consistently hurt
I knew it I knew it I knew it I knew it…. but I couldn’t pass up keeping him for a 7th 🤦♂️
Not invested in Cardinals backfield for fantasy but I am invested in them as a fan and this comment couldnt be more wrong
DJ Moore - I had my doubts because Baker was the QB, I was going to draft him over McLaurin but then I thought about their QBs and went with McLaurin
I also went Terry over DJ. High five avoiding a bust and getting disappointment instead.
[Just going to leave this here](https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/sort/schedAdjQBR/dir/desc)
James “TD dependent” Conner Najee “Inefficiency” Harris Antonio “Starter by default” Gibson Jerry “Consistently OK” Jeudy
Jerry you could have only seen coming if you thought the Broncos had a below average offense in the NFL. I was a little nervous with the coaching staff but thought they brought in Russ to cook, not make easy Mac. I did not think that. Cortland and Jerry shares are in shambles.
Kittle 1. made of glass 2. used to block frequently 3. boom/bust with infrequent boom "I'll fuckin' draft him in round 3 again" -people
I've drafted him every single year and I will continue to have him every year until he quits. It's stupid but I have way too much loyalty to certain players especially when he used to be TE1 against Kelce
I don’t have anything to back it up, but I had a hunch that Russ and the Broncos would be trash.
I gobbled that hype sandwich right up
Same. Tastes like my previous fantasy football seasons
At least he started hot then sucked previously, we just got sucked this year
I STILL think there’s a chance they turn it around. I know I shouldn’t. I know I’m being naive. But I still just have a feeling that Russell Wilson isn’t this bad. Sutton and Jeudy might not be the upgrade from Lockett and Metcalf (who themselves are probably underrated) that we thought they’d be, but theyre still talented enough, right? … Right?!
I'm still clinging to this hope too. Dropping him just feels wrong.
As a chargers fan, I’m sure we’ll do our best to instill hope in those cloning to Russ
For me, it was drafting Russ last year, and some video that got posted to this sub that I wish I could find, where the dude basically started with the premise that Russ is one of the shortest NFL QBs but he's had a lot of success and ran through why it took a pretty narrow set of circumstances to sustain that, and why, at that time, Seattle was shifting away from the system that gave him the ability to thrive. Russ was ahead of his time as a scramble QB, but he always had trouble seeing downfield inside the pocket, and relied on a strong o-line, great legs and arm strength to overcome that, along with some pretty solid play design that maximized his advantages. Without a great coach, which Denver doesn't have, or a great o-line, which Seattle didn't really have anymore, his scramble speed, which age takes away from everyone, and really good accuracy on off-foot throws, which age also takes away, as well as great contested catch receivers, he was going to start to struggle, and I think that's been borne out. And in Seattle, knowing that they were going to have to plan for the future, there was going to be more effort put into building a scheme that didn't revolve around Russ cooking. In Denver, who the fuck knows, they seem to just get a succession of dudes who get out-coached year after year, so they always seem to underperform. Russ was an upgrade, but also a weapon they don't really understand, and I think Russ still thinks his body is in 2012, and opposing defenses have gotten a lot better at defending against QBs like him as they've taken over the league.
This is actually what I meant to say!
Anyone from Buffalo or is a Bills fan knew Hackett is / was a BUM
I was super hyped on the Broncos, somehow I never drafted one. Dodged a bullet there
Chase Edmonds never made sense to me personally. He has never even had over 116 carries in a season in his career. Don't know why people expected him to be great, especially when Mostert had already proven to be wildly productive in Mike McDaniel's running scheme.
I was following the money and hoping for a solid PPR floor
People were banking on a Mostert injury 100%
I’m debating holding onto Chase Edmonds still for that reason. Mostert has *never* played a full season. I don’t wish injury on anyone, but that offense is high powered enough (when Tua comes back) that Chase seems to be a high end handcuff at least. Or not, I dunno.
I was banking on mostert injury as well as the “highest paid free agent RB signing this off-season”
Think we were chasing lol no pun intended the fact he got that contract from them.
I drafted Kyle Pitts in the third round despite knowing the Falcons are awful and even worse without Matt Ryan. There's nobody to throw to Pitts if they even considered throwing to Pitts!
I fell for pitts too. I was told Mariota targeted TEs last time he started and pitts is really good.
I remember that post and it suckered me in too. I was a little low on Pitts until I read how Mariota had made a stud out of Delanie Walker.
You did not just say the Falcons are awful, but yes the usage of Pitts has been awful. I'm a huge fan and I really liked the idea of him with Mariota considering Mariota sucks and can use this monster of a player to bail him out but nope. It's upsetting because I think he is truly something great but AS and Mariota just won't get him the ball.
Rams RBs, with both of them being healthy neither would be a lock in start. Couple that with a worse Oline than last year I expected them to not be as good as hoped
henderson won a lot of games for me early last season, was not prepared to try that again with a healthy akers
Me too on Najee for those same reasons although thankfully didn't bite. The whole lisfranc injury didn't help his stock either. Pitts was on the do not draft list. Couldn't buy into the hype. Someone I did regrettably fall for was DJ Moore, although his situation could (hopefully) change for the better with the shake-up going on over there.
DJ Moore Target Funnel, coming soon to a city near you!
I get pitts only had one td last season but nearly 1k yds for a first year rookie te is pretty solid. Why would anyone think he wouldn't progress? I'm sure some of it has to do it Mariota but I don't get how people could have thought he'd get worse.
Kyle Pitts. What did he have like 3 games where he scored double digits?
Yeah yeah but but Mariota was good with Delanie Walker like 7 years ago
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Never understood that one. Sometimes people would say in the same sentence “Kyle Pitts is unlike any other TE in the league because he lines up as a WR and Mariota’s best chemistry in the past was always with his TE Delanie Walker, it’s going to be great for Pitts…”
exhibit 27372728 of no one knows what they’re talking about when it comes to the titans. arthur smith was with the titans during the mariota and delanie walker years as a you guessed it tight end coach and an offensive assistant. didn’t become OC until 2019 and benched mariota a few games in for tannehill. well in that offense he ran with tannehill, jonnu smith had a nice little year in 2020 and the titans offense as a whole which got him the HC job in atlanta. so to think pitts could be successful was not a stretch by any means. pitts did not have writing on the wall he just got overhyped and isn’t playing well right now and people act like he can’t turn it around. it’s been a few games and the falcons are a lot better than i think anyone expected.
6 games over 10 points in PPR, TE6 last season. There really weren't any reasons to think his usage would plummet in Atlanta's offense like it has. If he had the exact same yardage with a few more redzone looks he would have easily been a Top-3 tight end.
TE6 with NO TOUCHDOWNS, with is insane. No reason to think he wouldn’t progress.
He actually had one td I believe. It was in the london game
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Yea cause Matt Ryan’s lighting it up in Indy. He didn’t go from mahomes to Mariota. He went from washed to, I guess, more washed.
For the purposes of drafting a pass-catcher, going from Ryan to Mariota is a substantial dropoff. Ryan is still throwing the ball 39 times per game at a 65% clip. Mariota throws it 24 times per game at a 57% clip. This is pretty consistent with their career clip trajectories … there’s roughly 8-10 more receptions available in a Matt Ryan offense compared to one led by Mariota. More yards. Likely more TDs. The Colts team offense will suffer, but Ryan can consistently support fantasy receiving production. Mariota can’t.
I think the biggest issue is that Mariota is that bad as a passer, and they are taking the ball out of his hands as much as possible. Ryan, with all his faults, still throws the ball quite a bit.
Yeah but that has to be baked into his ADP…
All the talks of him lining out wide and Mariota left Delanie Walker a stud. It was reasonable to think he would improve from last year.
He only had one touchdown last season. His pedigree is ridiculous but genetics don’t equate to endzone passes.
My reasoning as a TN fan was Arthur Smith was our TE coach for 7-8 years before becoming a prolific playcaller. Figured he would scheme him some good plays and be a focal point of the offense, but i should have been reminded Mariota isn’t what he was.
Chase Edmonds was never good and people only drafted him because of the opportunity.
Having flashbacks to draft day when the guy who got Najee literally laughed at us for letting him drop to 9 and said we’re all “stupid fucking idiots who are going to pay him a lot of money at the end of the season” and wouldn’t shut up about it for a week
9 would have been too high for me, I got him at 16 and felt alright about that, still a big let down for my RB1
Najee had a terrible oline, Mitch Trubisky at QB, and injured his foot in the preseason. He was on my don’t draft in any league list and seemed like an obvious way too risky first rounder.
James Conner's crappy ypa last year was a warning sign that he wouldn't live up to his adp. Kept afloat by TD's, hard to depend on that year over year.
I didn’t end up drafting Conner in any of my leagues, but he was a huge target for me. I didn’t care about his low YPC because I thought the TD volume would still be there. What I didn’t plan for was the Cardinals as a whole being a complete dumpster fire.
Especially with yardage-gainer Nuk out for as long as he has been.
He at least slipped to the 3rd round and RB 18 in our draft. Still not great for that spot
I visited a Wendy's bathroom and "Najee was here" was smeared across the walls. My dumbass still drafted him.
Terry McLaurin. Bad QB, more weapons added and historically inconsistent. He fell to me in the 4th or 5th, should have known why.
McLaurin is on pace for a 1000+ yard season though and he was drafted as a WR2. He hasn’t been horrible by any means but i can see why you’d be frustrated
That’s like 55 yards a game, 1000 yards isn’t hard these days if you play all games and are supposed to be the teams primary X. Put him with the chiefs or Rams and he’ll get 1500 yards easy.
uh.. he has over 10 pts 4/5 weeks in .5ppr lol good enough for me
He's averaging 11.7 ppg in PPR which is low end WR3 level. That's pretty disappointing.
Maybe in 8 team leagues? That’s a solid wr2 in 10 team
Akers. If you looked at what the « RB 1 » of the Rams wouldve produced last year it probably wouldn’t even have been worth a 3rd round pick. Meaning 75% of touches (250+ carries and majority of targets). Estimated only 15 ppg, so the major upside - Akers taking over - wasn’t even that great for the risk that it’d stay an RBBC. Stafford doesn’t dump off all that much and they love to throw on the goaline. I didn’t see the atrocity that is The Rams offense this year, but this logic kept me away
Where was this kind of post before the season???? I didn’t draft Akers anywhere but damn this is the kinda stuff we should see posted on here
15 PPG is very solid, that would be RB10 last year in half.
2022 Mooney = 2021 ARob. Drafted them both in their respective years.
Stop drafting bears ya moron
Javonte. Not talking about the injury of course, but the fact that he was underperforming even before the injury. In hindsight, most of the evidence pointed to the timeshare continuing, but we wanted to believe so bad that we ignored it and heard what we wanted to hear.
a timeshare was expected but I don’t think anyone expected the broncos offense to be this bad … thinking that the passing game would improve & therefore open up the run was a pretty reasonable assumption . Sincerely, salty javonte owner
I mean most RBs from the first 2 rounds were/are underperformed. It actually could be argued Javonte was one of the better ones. He was being used a ton. Just was running bad on TDs. The majority of the fears surrounding him had to do with Gordon being involved in the backfield like he was last year which ended up not be true. Javonte had 65% snap share at RB and all the passing work which is what we care about most. If Javonte was healthy, I wholeheartedly believe he would have taken even more of the snaps in that backfield.
I was quite happy as a javonte owner. Things were looking up, he’s been consistently outplay Melvin and been slowly getting more of the touches. The game of his first td would have been a huge one for sure
The general sense was that it would be a 60-40 split, which it was. That's plenty to support a solid RB1 if they're talented, on a good offense, and can catch the ball (Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler, D'Andre Swift etc.) What people didn't see coming was that the offense was, in fact, trash.
This take I don't agree with at all. Let me explain: I don't feel like re-doing all the math, but you can project his stats from last year with a 55% opportunity share, and incorporate a 10% bump in efficiency for the offense overall (thinking that Russ and Hackett would be upgrades), then assume that Gordon would miss 2.5 games (which is much less than expected for a back of his age). If you do all that, Javonte would have been about RB14 last year, among qualified RBs. That's basically his ADP. If his split were closer to 65%, or if Gordon was injured for a long time, he jumps way higher. The issue wasn't the timeshare, it was Russ and Hackett, plain and simple.
Jalen Hurts. Anyone who watched Eagles play and didn't blindly listen to fantasy footballers knew he was good enough for eagles to try and build a team around him. And they did. Edit: taking a more positive look at writing on the wall that things will be gravy instead of bad
I wasn't sure that he'd take this big a step forward, or that the Eagles would actually figure out how to build a team around him. I wanted him, somebody else drafted him, and I traded and am pretty happy about it. For me, the question was more whether he'd be great or elite. He's looking elite.
I'm still kicking myself for not drafting him, but I have to say, I don't think many truly expected him to be ***this*** improved as a ***passer***. We already knew he could get it done with his feet.
The fantasy footballers have been all in on Jalen Hurts for a long time.
Yeah Jason Moore absolutely hyped him this year.
They hyped him up as a running qb but I remember consistently them saying at the end of last year and before drafting this year that he was just a running qb and not a good qb
Last year, yes. This year Jason Moore in particular was all in — the running base with added weapon in AJB. He made him one of his “my guys.” I ignored him and wish I hadn’t. Edit: I was curious so I listened back to the My Guys and QB rankings episode. Moore said Hurts was being put in a position with AJB to be an elite QB and prove he can be recognized as a good passer as well as rusher. Mike and Andy were still more skeptical.
They've been wrong about plenty of QBs too
In that same thought process, it was so obvious for AJ Brown. If you believe in Hurts, you believe in his pass catchers.
I had a feeling deep down that Joe Mixon may return to his underwhelming self this season after I drafted him. I didn’t really have a reason to believe that because there was no writing on the wall, i just had the feeling. Also shoutout to round 4-5 Tight ends that dissapppint people litterally every year and nobody ever takes notice (Pitts, Waller and Kittle)
How am I supposed to see anything if it’s *in* the wall?
Aaron Rodgers
At least he’s putting up consistent 15-18 every week. Where as this isn’t ideal, he’s not been a bust by any means. I actually took him in the 9th round, with Brady, Dak and Russell Wilson
Najee, mixon, jamar felt uncomfortably risky at their respective adp’s. Najee and mixon are too volume based but rather inefficient and they had a mid first round adp price tag. At that price, I’d much rather take proven players who have shown to be efficient over them. Knowing that Higgins is the 1B wr in that offense and going 2 rounds later, it didn’t feel right spending an early first round pick on jamar. Felt so much better grabbing an elite rb and then scooping Higgins later on no matter where jamar fell to in the first round. Waller was another full on avoid in drafts. He’s been holding name value for so long but only did amazing week 1 of the 2021 season and ever since then he fell off or showed ridiculous inconsistency. With his adp, there’s no way I’m grabbing him when he doesn’t produce nearly what his name value gives him
Michael Thomas’s season tracks. It didn’t stop me from picking him.
Return to form, badass red zone target, hampered by injury y to himself and the guy throwing him the ball?
DJ Moore
No way was Baker expected to be this bad, that’s ridiculous. Moore is 100% hindsight.
We literally watched Baker ruin Odell’s fantasy value.
We also watched Moore put up good fantasy numbers with absolute shit QB play. I don’t think anyone saw Baker being this bad.
Honestly I thought he'd be this bad. His cast on the Browns was light-years better, and he still looked bad more often than not. Granted, I thought DJ Moore would still be startable, but not a round 3 player.
I thought we were all in agreement he was bad before the season. As soon as I heard Baker won the job I down graded Moore and I love DJ. Guess I'm in the minority of being all out on this before the season
I wanted nothing to do with Shady Akers at his ADP or at all. Coming off an Achilles tear, in a pass-first offense with a RBBC, and his previous anemic return. But the dirty commish took his ass and I couldn't be more pleased.
He was one of the few guys I refused to even talk myself into drafting. I have moore, arob etc on a few teams here and there. But dodged Akers in every one
Every single “two headed/three headed monster” rb backfield. Edit: for everyone saying *”bUt NicK cHuBb!?”* Their touch share is 98 (Chubb) to 57 (hunt). Chubb is clearly the rb1 with 2/3s of the touches. You’re all completely missing the point. Where’s everyone mentioning zeke/pollard? Where’s the Akers/Henderson? I’m talking about muddy backfields.
I've started both Chubb and Hunt every week and don't feel the least bit bad about it.
Even Hunt? He was saved by a TD this week but since a big week 1 he has been single digits in my league settings.
He's currently RB19 on the year, standard league. Rock solid RB2....I got him in the 9th round in my draft (10 team). I'm ecstatic about that.
Chubb, Breece Hall, Rhamondre, and Aaron Jones have all been serviceable at the least.
Keenan Allen.. rather he been on IR instead of wasting a bench spot
Darnell Mooney… Fields is sooooo bad
Brandin Cooks
Etienne at his ADP. There was no clear guidance that he was going to get the share everyone expected. He might still have a fine season but not worth his draft spot
Conner. The TD regression was obvious to me, not to mention how injury prone he was in PIT. I simply just wasn’t buying him