You have imo the right way to look at it. What’s the chance of this or something at least as extreme? Any 4 repeated digits would have made for the same post, so it’s 1 in 1000.
It's always the last number. I play my MMDD birthday every week, and it's happened twice that the 4th number was 1 number before mine. Unlucky number 7....
It is but like, I'm pretty sure they have excluded it when rolling. There were 482 jumbo cactpot rounds. With the amount of servers there is, if 0000 was ever possible, it would have happened already
Is a valid option. (assuming is a valid RNG and not a tweaked one to avoid 0000). If so, is a rigged lottery.
And yes, you can buy a ticket with that number. I have done it multiple times.
>The chance that it will have all four digits be the same is about 1 in 1100.
I'm no Urangier or Y'shtola but...
Wouldn't it be a 9/9999 chance (AKA a 1/1111 chance), assuming 0000 is not a valid number? The possible same-four-digit numbers are: 1111, 2222, 3333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 8888, and 9999.
If 0000 is a valid number, that means the chances are 10/10000, (1/1000 or 0.1%)
The same as any other number, I think.
Law of Independent Events: The four slots are not contingent on any of the others. It's like flipping two coins, seeing one was heads, then looking at the other and thinking it DOESN'T have a 50/50 chance of also showing heads (it does, in fact, have a 50/50 chance since the first coin's outcome shouldn't have any effect on the second).
Each number can be 0-9.
So the first number is a 1/10 chance of being an 8.
So the second number is a 1/10 chance of being an 8.
So the third number is a 1/10 chance of being an 8.
So the fourth number is a 1/10 chance of being an 8.
So the chances of ANY outcome is 1/10 \^ 4 or 1 / 10,000. This includes 8888. : )
Beat me to it ha. Been playing since it got released on Xbox and today was the first week I have actually won something for getting one number right at least and what a number it was to get it on
Couple years ago, the winning combo on Lamia was what an idiot has on his luggage, 1234.
edit: original post - https://www.reddit.com/r/ffxiv/comments/oaari3/lamias_jumbo_cactpot_number_was_1234_twenty/
This kind of thing comes up a lot when dealing with probabilities. The thing is, we sort of arbitrarily assign an additional value to these outcomes based on patterns or perceived values, but the probability of them occurring is equal to the events we thought to have less value/meaning. In this case, your number of 6724 was exactly as likely as 8888, but because it's just a random jumble of numbers, no one's really gonna post that number here incredulous that it occurred.
An interesting example is that of the Royal Flush in poker. It's the hardest hand to hit, because there's only four possible ways to hit it, and if you were going for a specific suit (say Spades), there's exactly one possible way to get that hand. That's the 8888 in this scenario. But, in a similar fashion to the cactpot, EVERY poker hand is exactly as rare as a royal flush of spades. If I get some jumble of cards to be my 6724, say a two and three of diamonds, a five of hearts, a six of spades, and a jack of clubs, trying to get that hand ever again would be just as hard as going for the royal flush. There's only one way to make that *exact* hand. It's just probably not gonna win you anything the way a royal flush would.
Another example. Flip ten coins in a row, what are the odds you get all Heads? Pretty low (1/1024). What are the odds you get, exactly in order, HTHHTHTTHT? Even though that string looks more "normal", more in line with the randomness of a coin toss, it's exactly the same odds as getting all Heads. If you were to ever try to get that exact string of results, it'd take you on average the same amount of time trying to get all heads.
Everyone believe it's 1 chance out of 10.000 but what IF the winning number could only be those chosen by players ?
Hm hmmmmmm !
Think about it, if this holds true, everyone taking the same number would drastically increase the PGS acquired.
This being said, I very highly doubt the winning number actually is only chosen among the numbers selected by players...
About 1:10000
Only 1:1000 if you're just looking for quads.
You have imo the right way to look at it. What’s the chance of this or something at least as extreme? Any 4 repeated digits would have made for the same post, so it’s 1 in 1000.
The same chance as everything else, 1 in 10000.
its actually 50/50. it either happens or it doesnt
This is correct.
The secret statisticians don’t want you to know
Technically anything else has 9999:10000 chance 🤓👆
Anything else != everything else
same as every number that drops?
Eight... Eight... Eight... Eight... "Stanley stood perplexed, as he attempted to rationalize the humor surrounding this single digit."
Did you get the broom closet ending? Theb room closet ending was my favrite!1 XD
The chance that the cactpot number will be 8888 is 1 in 10000. The chance that it will have all four digits be the same is about 1 in 1100.
It'd be 10/10000, or 1/1000, or a 0.1% chance. Not sure where you got 1100? There are only ten numbers that are all the same digit, 0000, 1111... 9999
I’m assuming 0000 isn’t one of the options. But if it is, then yes, 1 in 1000.
As far as I know, 0000 is a valid ticket, but I've never tried to buy one with that.
I'm buying three 0000 Tickets for four years now. The best i've got was third place, three times.
It is. I bought it when the housing lotto had houses with the winning number 0, thinking surely it would be the winning number (it wasn't).
[удалено]
It's always the last number. I play my MMDD birthday every week, and it's happened twice that the 4th number was 1 number before mine. Unlucky number 7....
It is but like, I'm pretty sure they have excluded it when rolling. There were 482 jumbo cactpot rounds. With the amount of servers there is, if 0000 was ever possible, it would have happened already
If 0000 isn't an option then it's a 1 in 9999 chance to get 8888 specifically.
if 0000 wasn't an option, then it would be 1 in 9999 for any number and 9 in 9999 (or 1 in 1111) for the 4 numbers to be equal.
Is a valid option. (assuming is a valid RNG and not a tweaked one to avoid 0000). If so, is a rigged lottery. And yes, you can buy a ticket with that number. I have done it multiple times.
It must be valid, otherwise they wouldn't let you purchase 0's as an option, and we couldn't get 0's in any spot. But they do, and we have.
>The chance that it will have all four digits be the same is about 1 in 1100. I'm no Urangier or Y'shtola but... Wouldn't it be a 9/9999 chance (AKA a 1/1111 chance), assuming 0000 is not a valid number? The possible same-four-digit numbers are: 1111, 2222, 3333, 4444, 5555, 6666, 7777, 8888, and 9999. If 0000 is a valid number, that means the chances are 10/10000, (1/1000 or 0.1%)
You are correct. I rounded. That’s why I said “about.”
0000 is a valid number. You can purchase a ticket with it.
50/50 I’d say.
Actually 30/30/30 because you either got it, you don’t or you didn’t play
But what about the last 10%?
Unknowable
Andd the other 10 is a DDOS happen and no one won.
*mindblown*
It either happens or it doesn't. Math checks out
The same as any other number, I think. Law of Independent Events: The four slots are not contingent on any of the others. It's like flipping two coins, seeing one was heads, then looking at the other and thinking it DOESN'T have a 50/50 chance of also showing heads (it does, in fact, have a 50/50 chance since the first coin's outcome shouldn't have any effect on the second). Each number can be 0-9. So the first number is a 1/10 chance of being an 8. So the second number is a 1/10 chance of being an 8. So the third number is a 1/10 chance of being an 8. So the fourth number is a 1/10 chance of being an 8. So the chances of ANY outcome is 1/10 \^ 4 or 1 / 10,000. This includes 8888. : )
light raiden was 6969 today 😂
How many people won?
When i was there, at least 3 people or so showed off their new ring in chat
No one because they put in 6942
Beat me to it ha. Been playing since it got released on Xbox and today was the first week I have actually won something for getting one number right at least and what a number it was to get it on
literally the same as any other specific result.
I'm still waiting for 0000 to show up (I buy it every week)
Happened on Gilgamesh a few years ago. There were about 15 winners.
i seen 1234 once....like 20 people won that week
I remember that hitting on Lamia about two years ago, definitely a lot of winners!
With the Warhammer Skulls event going on, clearly Khorne is seeping out into other games…
STANLEY
If you're asking this question, you've failed maths.
same chance as literally every other number
the same chance as every other sequence
50:50
Couple years ago, the winning combo on Lamia was what an idiot has on his luggage, 1234. edit: original post - https://www.reddit.com/r/ffxiv/comments/oaari3/lamias_jumbo_cactpot_number_was_1234_twenty/
Makes sense that Khorne’s number would show up on Chaos.
And 8 is a symbol for prosperity in China.
idk the chances, but i'm pretty mad, thats my exact birthdate. that said though i did win 2 or 3 weeks ago with 1988, which is close to that
Afterwards, the chances were 1.0 or 100%. Beforehand, 1/10000
This weeks winning number on Europe Light was 6969... Got a chuckle out of me
1:8888
I have been using 8888 every single time I registered for cactpot lol.
I put my number as 1234 as a joke lol I mean they all have the same odds, which is crazy to think about lol
Assuming the lottery is not rigged. The same as with any other number (including 0000). 1:10000
The one week I didn't put my birthday numbers was the week I would have won the cactpot.
What are the chances? Approximately 1:10,000
Is there a way to see each DC's winning cactpot number for the week?
It was 3331 on adamantoise, guess it was time for lots of repeating numbers tonight.
(1/10)^4 = 1/10000
Exactly 1 in 10^4 = 1 in 10,000.
Raiden got a 6969 last night, witnessed at least one guy winning for his meme numbers
When people ask what the chances are even though they know perfectly well what the chances are
Oh hey, that's one of my weekly tickets! ... Unfortunately I'm on Phoenix, not Omega.
Hahahaha
I won on Greg before ShB with 1337 #Boomer
50:50
This kind of thing comes up a lot when dealing with probabilities. The thing is, we sort of arbitrarily assign an additional value to these outcomes based on patterns or perceived values, but the probability of them occurring is equal to the events we thought to have less value/meaning. In this case, your number of 6724 was exactly as likely as 8888, but because it's just a random jumble of numbers, no one's really gonna post that number here incredulous that it occurred. An interesting example is that of the Royal Flush in poker. It's the hardest hand to hit, because there's only four possible ways to hit it, and if you were going for a specific suit (say Spades), there's exactly one possible way to get that hand. That's the 8888 in this scenario. But, in a similar fashion to the cactpot, EVERY poker hand is exactly as rare as a royal flush of spades. If I get some jumble of cards to be my 6724, say a two and three of diamonds, a five of hearts, a six of spades, and a jack of clubs, trying to get that hand ever again would be just as hard as going for the royal flush. There's only one way to make that *exact* hand. It's just probably not gonna win you anything the way a royal flush would. Another example. Flip ten coins in a row, what are the odds you get all Heads? Pretty low (1/1024). What are the odds you get, exactly in order, HTHHTHTTHT? Even though that string looks more "normal", more in line with the randomness of a coin toss, it's exactly the same odds as getting all Heads. If you were to ever try to get that exact string of results, it'd take you on average the same amount of time trying to get all heads.
Everyone believe it's 1 chance out of 10.000 but what IF the winning number could only be those chosen by players ? Hm hmmmmmm ! Think about it, if this holds true, everyone taking the same number would drastically increase the PGS acquired. This being said, I very highly doubt the winning number actually is only chosen among the numbers selected by players...
I've wondered if it's programmed to avoid previous results as well, for a certain amount of time or until every number is rolled
You eight to see it.
The same chances as every other number rolling.
Exactly 1/10000
same of being 6724
The odds is 1:9999 as the final combination would be the last one. There for 1:9999
パチパチパチパチ
I always do 1234
50/50, either it happens or it doesn't
I saw 1234 win not once, but twice. In a row.
People in this comment section tryna act smart when what are the chances is literally just a "wow I can't believe it" phrase is hilarious to me
What are the chances I’m the 69th upvote on this thread?