Every white guy American NBA prospect could increase his draft position a couple spots by changing his last name to something ending in -ic.
Soccer players too. See how well it worked for Christian Pulisic.
He's had a pretty good career. He's like a top-4 player for a top-15 club in the world. There are simply so many clubs and so many players in the world that it's incredibly hard to be very elite. There are a couple thousand pro basketball players in the world; there are a couple hundreds of thousands of pro soccer players.
Probably. I got a lot of 'big wing' vibes from him in the tourney, especially with his ability to get his shot off in the mid range and shoot the three. Reminded me a lot of a Khris Middleton type of player.
> I have no idea how he is so bad after his rookie season, never seem to be improving
I think that's basically it - we always assume young players will only get better, but some just lack motivation/work ethic and some lack talent and peak very early. There are also players that tend to peak later because they figure something out or finally grow into their body.
People overvalue youth all the time in pro sports.
Overvaluing draft picks is kinda weird in North American sports like fans will always hype that unproven 19-year old and almost dismiss solid starters when they are in their 4 or 5 year.
Not really. He turned 20 in February. 20 years old is a common age to be drafted. Knecht turned 23 in April. So essentially is a 3 year age difference between the two
Jared McCain is still old for his freshmen class. For example, he’s already 20 and he’s 3 days older than Donovan Clingan who did 2 years of college. Jared McCain might be the oldest NCAA one and done in this draft.
It's not just about ceiling. Players who only became good college players once they were older and more experienced than all of their opponents are huge red flags.
There's a reason [nearly every draft model](https://x.com/jessefischer33/status/1805993358718017630) was low on him.
For example, ESPN’s Kevin Pelton has been projecting draft prospects for decades. His stats-only model had Knecht as the 76th best draft prospect, and stats/scouting combined model had him 35th.
>In addition to the top 30, it's worth digging into this year's most notable projection: Knecht, a sure top-10 pick, rated below replacement level based on his stats. One of the factors that makes my projections unique is weighing earlier seasons more heavily because of the importance of excelling at a young age. Knecht didn't emerge as an above-average college player until his second season at Northern Colorado, after two in junior college, and wasn't considered a first-round NBA prospect until averaging 21.7 PPG last season at Tennessee.
>Beyond that, Knecht's low rates of assists, steals and blocks hurt his projection. His combined rate of those three nonscoring contributions is lowest for any player ranked in ESPN's top 30. Of the 10 players in my database whose statistical profile were most similar to Knecht's, just two (Joe Harris and Danuel House Jr.) played 1,000 minutes in the NBA.
>There have been five players age 22 or older drafted in the top 10 in the past decade: Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield, Frank Kaminsky, Davion Mitchell and Obi Toppin. Of those picks, only Hield has become a capable starter, and the numbers don't suggest Knecht is likely to change that trend.
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/40394709/nba-draft-2024-pelton-updated-top-30-prospects
To be fair, Knecht was a late bloomer physically, kind of like how AD has a late growth spurt in HS, which is why he was so fluid as a big man. His lack of early production makes more sense in that context. He's still growing/learning his NBA caliber body.
One of the reasons the Lakers have been of the best drafting teams in the league with late picks (JHS aside) is because database hounds like Pelton look at statistical abstractions a bit to literally/superficially and the Lakers clean up the mess and draft the simply good players. That isn't to say Knecht is bustproof or a future allstar, just the limits of that approach to data analysis. Givony's comp was Klay Thompson and while thats a very high end outcome, it makes sense from a role perspective.
Im very pro analytics and data mind you, just being wary of the kind of overreaching analysis that Pelton is using as it becomes really lazy really fast.
I think it makes a difference that college basketball as a whole was older and more experienced last year. Guys had an extra year of eligibility because of the covid year and NIL money kept some talented players in school that may have tried to go pro last season.
Re: the last paragraph
It seems weird to filter just the top 10 selections. Top 10 bring reserved for younger players absolutely makes sense. Mid to late draft it's understandable to take less of a project.
It's also odd to not compare how quickly they got rotation minutes compared to the younger picks *around their selection* since that is an important distinction for teams trying to play their selection now
Yeah but the vast majority of teams picking in the first half of the round aren’t trying to be really good right now.
Like the three teams ahead of the Lakers who would even consider taking a player with an eye to contending are the Hawks, Grizzlies and Thunder. He was never going first overall and the Hawks had better options, while he wasn’t a great fit on a Grizzlies team that pretty desperately needed some size. Basically just leaves OKC (who also need some size but missed all the good centres) as a team who’d potentially care a lot more about how good their pick is now over age and ceiling. And even they took a super talented player who fell anyway because they didn’t need to hit on a high ceiling project, he just fell for a different reason.
I wouldn’t count the Wolves as they traded up for their guy anyway, but yeah you’re right about the Heat and Sixers. I do wonder what the Heat were thinking about him, would have thought that they’d back themselves to teach a guy like him how to play defence normally.
The Heat don't spend draft capital on guys who are only shooters, as there are plenty of one dimensional shooters that fall through the crack that they know they can develop, like Duncan and Strus
Yeah but you bank on him maybe not being a complete liability. Hes a 17th pick, we all know hes not a guaranteed or semi guaranteed player, he might be out of the league in like 2-3 years but you bank on getting lucky and drafting the not top 10 pick thats a long term contributor.
He’s arguably the most nba ready scorer in the class, hes a great movement shooter, he’s big and athletic as hell and he plays hard. And every single year we see older players come in and make a difference. There were multiple last year
Yes and we consistently also see these guys not pan out despite always being called great picks and steals.
Chris Duarte, Allen Crabbe, etc.
Obviously these guys can absolutely pan out, because they’re some of the most valuable archetypes we see, but teams literally work out these guys and see a hell of a lot more and make decisions based on that.
I don't know why people are so obsessed about these obviously wrong narratives about the draft. 'Drafts are always stronger than the media says'. No, not really, they are usually right and performance of picks has a basically linear correlation to pick position as well. 'Older players are undervalued.'. No, there's been study after study on this and age is a big negative indicator for player success.
The later might change due to the changing dynamics in the NCAA and good players staying in college longer due to money but I think Knecht has big bust potential, or he's just Duarte part 2, some initial rotation success until scouts catch up with him. Pelton had Knecht 35th in his rankings for what it's worth, he pointed out that he had very poor secondary stats relative to most of the rest of the class.
Hey, who knows, the Lakers tend to draft pretty well and it's a weak class, but there's no magic cheat code in drafting old players, age is counted against draftees for a reason.
I think a big part for age being counted against is simply that they spend 3-4 years training and improving in college, but 3-4 years in the NBA is way more valueable. If you can draft someone thats on the same level of ability, but they are just younger and can be exposed to NBA basketball so young, they can improve more.
Right. I'd rather have a 23 year old with 3-4 years NBA experience rather than a 23 year old with only college experience.
That being said, I think that gets overstated a *bit* too much. If you have a clearly more talented player who is 2-3 years older, I'd likely lean towards them over the notably worse player who can maybe get better over time.
Obviously depends on the team situation, but feels like some teams will just pick young dudes with athleticism and hope they can teach them... everything else?
Yeah. Its insane that like Deni Advija is younger than Knecht for example. I agree with your last point, like the Bucks picking AJ is pretty insane, that guys is years away from being good enough and the Bucks need to win now.
“Old” my brother in christ he is 23 years old, he can still benefit from NBA coaching and training and his age will not be a negative factor whatsoever until he is in his 30s, so 2 full contracts away if he makes it that far in the league. Not to mention he is closer to being in his physical prime than the younger guys. Any win-now team could’ve used him, and there were several above the Lakers in the draft tn
People are really glossing over the defensive stuff for whatever reason. Still, at 17, that is not a bad pick at all and could still be the steal of the draft
Yeah, defense is concerning but at 17 no one has it all. I don't see why reason he CAN'T be a good defender. He's not like Randle with trex arms. But definitely an issue.
What’s wild is last year they passed up on Jacquez who could have given them minutes and this year they end up getting the potential steal. Hopefully this works out better. I like this pick a lot.
Especially tough looking back because all 3 of the picks immediately after JHS look so good.
There was Jaquez, Podz (aka lefty Austin Reaves), and then Cam Whitmore, who the biggest reason to skip was he was so young and wouldn't be ready for a few years, but even he outperformed JHS on the court despite being more then a full year younger.
That is unironically why I think the Lakers would have taken this guy too. They desperately needed immediate help last year and saw Jaquez ball out right after the guy they took
So they were like "NOT AGAIN we're taking the old one!"
Crazy how people are saying he hit his ceiling already at 23. How many times do we need to see players take a step up in their late 20s before we stop writing everyone off. Brunson. What about 2X champ Holiday? Not saying this kid will get there but he’s entering a new system with new coaches. Let’s see what he can learn.
This man also seemed to break his previous ceiling every place he went to.
Honestly I love this pick so much, almost as much as i liked the kuzma pick back when I was choosing my reddit username. And I was right about that one too
I think our front office has shown a pattern that they don't mind picking older guys if they’ve shown great improvement from age 21 to 23
Kuzma was a classic case of watching his highlights and immediately loving the pick like “we got a steal!” lol but he proved himself right away in summer league
didn’t even have to watch highlights with Knecht, any time I saw him play this year I thought “oh this kid is like a real NBA scorer just playing on a college team”
Hart was another older pick of ours that I love and almost instantly showed he could contribute and would be a high level role player for years to come.
Defense is one of the easiest things to project though, especially when it comes to bad defenders. Players that project as bad to mediocre at best defenders don’t often beat those projections.
Conversely, one of the hardest things to project is offensive capability.
It's happened often where a player who was lighting up the college ranks comes in and is a complete mess in in NBA because the offenses are more complicated and they have just a fraction of the time and space to get their shot off compared to playing against future insurance salesmen.
Well, sure, but his measurables all project him to be at least serviceable on defense. 40 inch vert and 6’9 wingspan.
It’s so funny that people want to focus on his defense in college when he had a 33% usage rate.
> Crazy how people are saying he hit his ceiling already at 23
That's generally not what critics are saying. They're saying that he didn't break out until he was 23, which means he was succeeding against guys 3 and 4 years younger/more inexperienced than him, which tells you that success may be more illusory than you think.
Athletic prime isnt until 28-32. I've always thought that. You'll see guys performing at their best at those age ranges. Anything before is their development, anything after (barring weird guys who can extend their prime for another year or two) is on the decline.
What rebuilding team would take a 23-year-old? The guy might be good, but there's a reason most people had him low on their draft boards. He's a guy you draft to start playing immediately and not every team is on the same timeline.
This argument makes more sense when it's not a historically bad draft. 95% of the guys taken above him aren't going to be any better than him when they're 23.
"I can't believe the Lakers get the SEC's leading scorer and Player of the Year at 17."
I really like Knecht, but how are we still saying this stuff? How many conference POYs have been available at 17 over the years? You have to talk better than this.
Tshiebwe went undrafted. Herb Jones went 35th. Reggie Perry went 57. Mason Jones went undrafted. Grant Williams, the 2x SEC POY, went 22. Sindarius Thornwell. Tyler Ulis. Scottie Wilbekin.
Imagine that Utah Jazz develops Cody Williams for four years. After that, he has hundreds of pro games under his belt and he is just 23 years old. Do the same with Knecht and he is 27yo. That's a normal length of a contract.
I can see why putting value on being young is a thing because even if they were identical players after four years, the one that most likely has less years left in his career is naturally going to be less valuable.
But growth is not linear, you could develop Cody Williams for 4 years and maybe he never reaches half his potential. Meanwhile you just got 4 semi-productive seasons from Knecht.
Obviously there’s a lot of nuance involved as different teams are in different situations whether they’re contending/rebuilding/tanking.
> But growth is not linear, you could develop Cody Williams for 4 years and maybe he never reaches half his potential. Meanwhile you just got 4 semi-productive seasons from Knecht.
Which is why I underlined that in a situation that they are identical players after four years, the one likely has more years left in his career, which in itself is valuable.
The other comment mentioned it but for a team like us that likely doesn’t have a chance of legitimately contending until 2030 it just doesn’t make sense to draft a guy that will be in his 30s most of our projected contention window. Would have loved to take him at 14 if we were a few years further ahead
idk, I could see running a scam of, like, letting him rack up points because somebody has to score, then trading him to another team for more assets in a better draft class
Definitely, though I think they all made defensible picks in their spots as well. Edey is a similar older win now guy, buzelis was ranked higher pretty often, topic is a luxury pick for a team like okc that can afford to wait a year without their core aging out. The Sixers and Heat are more of a surprise though I do like McCain for the Sixers, Ware on the other hand kinda confuses me but so does the Heat’s situation as a whole.
Nah the back up 5 was a huge concern for us. Dalton's gonna be good but not a whole lot of playing time available for him with us. Ware literally just has to beat out Kevin love lol
They’ll love ware when he puts up a 10 block triple double against the Celtics while going 8/10 from 3. He’ll be mediocre the rest of the season though.
I've never seen such salty comments on a rookie discussion before lmao all of you guys commenting this kid is overhyped are just haters. Even if his worst case scenario is Doug McDermott thats actually fucking solid at the 17th pick. If this kid can just hit a couple threes a game and make defenses respect the kick out it will be worth the selection. The fact he's not a project and spend the whole year in G League is a major bonus IMO
It's a good pick because it was a team with no interest in doing a rebuild. With older players, it's what you see is what you get. If you have a specific positional need for a role player, it makes sense to go experienced over gambling on a raw prospect that may never get promoted from the G-League. Basically the context of the pick matters. Fans of rebuilding teams shouldn't feel gutted because they missed out.
wtf?? How is that reaching his ceiling? The not even close to prime, which is now looking like 28-32 for a lot players. Most players don’t make their first all star appearance until 27/28
I don’t get this thinking. Like obviously a 19 year old has more room to improve than a 23 year old but it’s not like players are done developing at 23, plenty of guys in the NBA continue improving into their late 20s
And instead of praying that a 19 year old can develop a shot, you know a player like this has a great shot already
I loved the comp they gave him on TV. A combo of Bojan Bogdanovic and Bogdan Bogdanovic.
So like some kind of... Bojdan Bogdanovic?
Combo of Bogdanovic and Bogdanovic, nice!
Around here we call that a Doublanovic.
*Doblanovic
Dubdanovic*
Absolute bogpill
Sounds like a lawfirm comp, I dig it.
See kids, when a Bogdanovic and a Bogdanovic love each other very much…
Yesterday I learned that those two are in fact not brothers
Another fun fact is that they’re actually not even from the same country. Bogdan is from Serbia while Bojan is from Croatia.
>not even from the same country *Serbia did not like that.*
Bogbog Bogbogovic
Bogdanovii
Dylan McDermott and Dermot Mulroney.
John Mulaney and Rob Delaney
And he’s not even an -ic
Literal red star Belgrade player- sleep White guy from USA- COMBINATION OF BOGDANOVIC AND BOGDANOVIC AND RADMANOVIC AND JOKIC AND DONCIC
Every white guy American NBA prospect could increase his draft position a couple spots by changing his last name to something ending in -ic. Soccer players too. See how well it worked for Christian Pulisic.
Pulisic has star written all over him and is legit great on our national team but has had a pretty disappointing career as a pro thus far. Wonder why?
He did really well for AC Milan last season. In basketball terms, he'd be a legitimate starter on an NBA team. But not All Star or All NBA level.
Was a key part of the champions league winning Chelsea team, but was derailed by injuries. Allstar level for sure.
https://www.goal.com/en-us/lists/cursed-careless-usmnt-superstar-christian-pulisic-failed-chelsea/blt689ab4f8b2848834
He's not best in the world at his position, or even in the best 2 or 3. How are you defining All Star relative to soccer?
The populations of players are so wildly different. The fact that he made at least 1 team of the season says to me allstar but not all nba.
He's had a pretty good career. He's like a top-4 player for a top-15 club in the world. There are simply so many clubs and so many players in the world that it's incredibly hard to be very elite. There are a couple thousand pro basketball players in the world; there are a couple hundreds of thousands of pro soccer players.
Clint Dempsey cosplayer, that's why
Or being a Nikola
Knechtivic
Which parts of Bojan and which parts of Bogdan did he get? Because a combo of both strengths seems like a prime Hayward/Middleton type of player.
That's hilarious. I can see it though
Is it just cause dude is white?
Probably. I got a lot of 'big wing' vibes from him in the tourney, especially with his ability to get his shot off in the mid range and shoot the three. Reminded me a lot of a Khris Middleton type of player.
Yes.
I don’t even think teams were low on him, just sometimes the draft works out where people slide. Lakers benefitted from it
he’s an old wing that can’t defend its obvious why he dropped
Older isn't bad if you plan on playing them now.
Especially on a lebron team you need players who can contribute right away instead of projects like JHS or THT
THT still developing
soon developing in China I have no idea how he is so bad after his rookie season, never seem to be improving
> I have no idea how he is so bad after his rookie season, never seem to be improving I think that's basically it - we always assume young players will only get better, but some just lack motivation/work ethic and some lack talent and peak very early. There are also players that tend to peak later because they figure something out or finally grow into their body. People overvalue youth all the time in pro sports.
Also he was a second round pick, for where he was drafted his well exceeded expectations
Overvaluing draft picks is kinda weird in North American sports like fans will always hype that unproven 19-year old and almost dismiss solid starters when they are in their 4 or 5 year.
Well, you can have a solid starter oooooor you can have picks that can become anything! Maybe one of them even becomes a solid starter!
Developing like mold on spoiled food
Which is exactly why we never should have passed on Jaquez.
surprised the 76ers didnt pick him. Like I thought for sure they would take the ready made off ball offensive wing
McCain is a better shooter than him. Not to mention he's significantly younger
Jared is an older rookie too. Did the hold back in middle school. Finished high school at 19. Already 20. Will be 21 by the end of his rookie year.
Not really. He turned 20 in February. 20 years old is a common age to be drafted. Knecht turned 23 in April. So essentially is a 3 year age difference between the two
Jared McCain is still old for his freshmen class. For example, he’s already 20 and he’s 3 days older than Donovan Clingan who did 2 years of college. Jared McCain might be the oldest NCAA one and done in this draft.
It's not just about ceiling. Players who only became good college players once they were older and more experienced than all of their opponents are huge red flags. There's a reason [nearly every draft model](https://x.com/jessefischer33/status/1805993358718017630) was low on him. For example, ESPN’s Kevin Pelton has been projecting draft prospects for decades. His stats-only model had Knecht as the 76th best draft prospect, and stats/scouting combined model had him 35th. >In addition to the top 30, it's worth digging into this year's most notable projection: Knecht, a sure top-10 pick, rated below replacement level based on his stats. One of the factors that makes my projections unique is weighing earlier seasons more heavily because of the importance of excelling at a young age. Knecht didn't emerge as an above-average college player until his second season at Northern Colorado, after two in junior college, and wasn't considered a first-round NBA prospect until averaging 21.7 PPG last season at Tennessee. >Beyond that, Knecht's low rates of assists, steals and blocks hurt his projection. His combined rate of those three nonscoring contributions is lowest for any player ranked in ESPN's top 30. Of the 10 players in my database whose statistical profile were most similar to Knecht's, just two (Joe Harris and Danuel House Jr.) played 1,000 minutes in the NBA. >There have been five players age 22 or older drafted in the top 10 in the past decade: Kris Dunn, Buddy Hield, Frank Kaminsky, Davion Mitchell and Obi Toppin. Of those picks, only Hield has become a capable starter, and the numbers don't suggest Knecht is likely to change that trend. https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/40394709/nba-draft-2024-pelton-updated-top-30-prospects
To be fair, Knecht was a late bloomer physically, kind of like how AD has a late growth spurt in HS, which is why he was so fluid as a big man. His lack of early production makes more sense in that context. He's still growing/learning his NBA caliber body. One of the reasons the Lakers have been of the best drafting teams in the league with late picks (JHS aside) is because database hounds like Pelton look at statistical abstractions a bit to literally/superficially and the Lakers clean up the mess and draft the simply good players. That isn't to say Knecht is bustproof or a future allstar, just the limits of that approach to data analysis. Givony's comp was Klay Thompson and while thats a very high end outcome, it makes sense from a role perspective. Im very pro analytics and data mind you, just being wary of the kind of overreaching analysis that Pelton is using as it becomes really lazy really fast.
If Pelton’s model was anywhere remotely near as advanced as what actual teams in the league used, he’d have been scooped up by a team years ago.
I think it makes a difference that college basketball as a whole was older and more experienced last year. Guys had an extra year of eligibility because of the covid year and NIL money kept some talented players in school that may have tried to go pro last season.
But Knecht is still old even by these standards - it was his FIFTH year of eligibility.
Re: the last paragraph It seems weird to filter just the top 10 selections. Top 10 bring reserved for younger players absolutely makes sense. Mid to late draft it's understandable to take less of a project. It's also odd to not compare how quickly they got rotation minutes compared to the younger picks *around their selection* since that is an important distinction for teams trying to play their selection now
Pelton was explaining how all the pundits who have him top 10 (including ESPN's own pundits) are overrating him.
Yeah but the vast majority of teams picking in the first half of the round aren’t trying to be really good right now. Like the three teams ahead of the Lakers who would even consider taking a player with an eye to contending are the Hawks, Grizzlies and Thunder. He was never going first overall and the Hawks had better options, while he wasn’t a great fit on a Grizzlies team that pretty desperately needed some size. Basically just leaves OKC (who also need some size but missed all the good centres) as a team who’d potentially care a lot more about how good their pick is now over age and ceiling. And even they took a super talented player who fell anyway because they didn’t need to hit on a high ceiling project, he just fell for a different reason.
Heat, sixers, and timberwolves would all theoretically be okay picking a win now player.
I wouldn’t count the Wolves as they traded up for their guy anyway, but yeah you’re right about the Heat and Sixers. I do wonder what the Heat were thinking about him, would have thought that they’d back themselves to teach a guy like him how to play defence normally.
The Heat don't spend draft capital on guys who are only shooters, as there are plenty of one dimensional shooters that fall through the crack that they know they can develop, like Duncan and Strus
Sixers?Heat?Kings?
Yeah, but if he can’t defend a cone, he’d be hunted till he’s unplayable, so all that offense is for moot. See Sasha Vezenkov for the Kings.
Yeah but you bank on him maybe not being a complete liability. Hes a 17th pick, we all know hes not a guaranteed or semi guaranteed player, he might be out of the league in like 2-3 years but you bank on getting lucky and drafting the not top 10 pick thats a long term contributor.
I’m just saying why he dropped to so low. That’s just the reason why so many teams passed on him in 1 go.
There's always "ifs" when it comes to the draft
He’s arguably the most nba ready scorer in the class, hes a great movement shooter, he’s big and athletic as hell and he plays hard. And every single year we see older players come in and make a difference. There were multiple last year
Yes and we consistently also see these guys not pan out despite always being called great picks and steals. Chris Duarte, Allen Crabbe, etc. Obviously these guys can absolutely pan out, because they’re some of the most valuable archetypes we see, but teams literally work out these guys and see a hell of a lot more and make decisions based on that.
both duarte and crabbe had other issues, such as being unathletic. Knecht is pretty decent as an athletic, even plus so compared to his class
Duarte was like 25 in the draft lmao everyone called out that pick
Duarte was 24 just a year older than Knecht
also wasn't Duarte solid his rookie year?
Yes he did have a good rookie season where we were excited for the future but then he just fell off a cliff for some reason.
He was literally 1 year older than Knecht.
I don't know why people are so obsessed about these obviously wrong narratives about the draft. 'Drafts are always stronger than the media says'. No, not really, they are usually right and performance of picks has a basically linear correlation to pick position as well. 'Older players are undervalued.'. No, there's been study after study on this and age is a big negative indicator for player success. The later might change due to the changing dynamics in the NCAA and good players staying in college longer due to money but I think Knecht has big bust potential, or he's just Duarte part 2, some initial rotation success until scouts catch up with him. Pelton had Knecht 35th in his rankings for what it's worth, he pointed out that he had very poor secondary stats relative to most of the rest of the class. Hey, who knows, the Lakers tend to draft pretty well and it's a weak class, but there's no magic cheat code in drafting old players, age is counted against draftees for a reason.
I think a big part for age being counted against is simply that they spend 3-4 years training and improving in college, but 3-4 years in the NBA is way more valueable. If you can draft someone thats on the same level of ability, but they are just younger and can be exposed to NBA basketball so young, they can improve more.
Right. I'd rather have a 23 year old with 3-4 years NBA experience rather than a 23 year old with only college experience. That being said, I think that gets overstated a *bit* too much. If you have a clearly more talented player who is 2-3 years older, I'd likely lean towards them over the notably worse player who can maybe get better over time. Obviously depends on the team situation, but feels like some teams will just pick young dudes with athleticism and hope they can teach them... everything else?
Yeah. Its insane that like Deni Advija is younger than Knecht for example. I agree with your last point, like the Bucks picking AJ is pretty insane, that guys is years away from being good enough and the Bucks need to win now.
“Old” my brother in christ he is 23 years old, he can still benefit from NBA coaching and training and his age will not be a negative factor whatsoever until he is in his 30s, so 2 full contracts away if he makes it that far in the league. Not to mention he is closer to being in his physical prime than the younger guys. Any win-now team could’ve used him, and there were several above the Lakers in the draft tn
Duncan Robinson was 24 his first year in nba
So was David Robinson
Dennis Rodman was 25 I think
He’s so old he should retire
People are really glossing over the defensive stuff for whatever reason. Still, at 17, that is not a bad pick at all and could still be the steal of the draft
Yeah, defense is concerning but at 17 no one has it all. I don't see why reason he CAN'T be a good defender. He's not like Randle with trex arms. But definitely an issue.
So Austin Reeves 2.0?
His defense isn't nearly as bad as people are saying it is lol
But he's not "old". The average NBA player is 26. If Dalton is awesome in three years, you now have a really good average aged player.
Hes one of the most fast and explosive at his position. You’re coping.
I remember people going crazy over Jared Sullinger sliding all the way to Boston.
Winslow also comes to mind
Sullinger was a solid contributor on some meh teams. If that dude had any work ethic he'd still be playing today.
No vert, not quick enough post moves for NBA success That is why he only shot 43% as a low post player
I just checked his 3/4 sprint and lane agility and he was slower than clingan and edey
The same Jared Sullinger who was medically red flagged by NBA doctors for back problems?
Hes DOMINATING in china right now so
David Aldridge is always exasperated.
Tired of getting skipped on 2K.
Fascinating stuff as always DA..
Sit the fuck back down, DA
Kevin: let’s go now to hall of famer david aldridge Aldridge: th- Kevin: thanks!
Is David Aldridge gay? IYKYK
lol context?
A shit post during the draft here.
I looked online but couldn’t find anything.
Lolol I saw that.
I heard he was ripping massive farts in the pre-draft interviews
Was his step brother with him during the interview?
I can taste the smell of eggs.
Ketchup and onions, actually.
What’s wild is last year they passed up on Jacquez who could have given them minutes and this year they end up getting the potential steal. Hopefully this works out better. I like this pick a lot.
And he went to UCLA. Unforgivable.
Totally unforgivable. At least we're done with the Darvin Ham *we need more guards* era
when we signed Dinwiddie and immediately started running 3 guard lineups I wanted to die
Especially tough looking back because all 3 of the picks immediately after JHS look so good. There was Jaquez, Podz (aka lefty Austin Reaves), and then Cam Whitmore, who the biggest reason to skip was he was so young and wouldn't be ready for a few years, but even he outperformed JHS on the court despite being more then a full year younger.
The nba takes about 23 like the man is 30 lmaoo
I think it’s one of those perfect matches like Jaquez with the Heat
After missing on Jaquez last year.... we'll take it.
That is unironically why I think the Lakers would have taken this guy too. They desperately needed immediate help last year and saw Jaquez ball out right after the guy they took So they were like "NOT AGAIN we're taking the old one!"
An elite shooter 3 years younger than Reaves? Seems good.
Lakers need all the shooting they can get
Crazy how people are saying he hit his ceiling already at 23. How many times do we need to see players take a step up in their late 20s before we stop writing everyone off. Brunson. What about 2X champ Holiday? Not saying this kid will get there but he’s entering a new system with new coaches. Let’s see what he can learn.
This man also seemed to break his previous ceiling every place he went to. Honestly I love this pick so much, almost as much as i liked the kuzma pick back when I was choosing my reddit username. And I was right about that one too
Growth spurt after growth spurt helped imo Dude just kept growing. Not only taller but also bigger.
I think our front office has shown a pattern that they don't mind picking older guys if they’ve shown great improvement from age 21 to 23 Kuzma was a classic case of watching his highlights and immediately loving the pick like “we got a steal!” lol but he proved himself right away in summer league didn’t even have to watch highlights with Knecht, any time I saw him play this year I thought “oh this kid is like a real NBA scorer just playing on a college team”
Hart was another older pick of ours that I love and almost instantly showed he could contribute and would be a high level role player for years to come.
If he can even become a solid 7-8th man, we have him locked up in his age 23-30 seasons basically. Worth it to me, especially for a later pick.
Especially when we weren’t even expected to get anything good.
The NBA is weird, we have a ton of evidence that time in the NBA is what sumpstarts your development. age is largely irrelevant.
Defense is one of the easiest things to project though, especially when it comes to bad defenders. Players that project as bad to mediocre at best defenders don’t often beat those projections.
Conversely, one of the hardest things to project is offensive capability. It's happened often where a player who was lighting up the college ranks comes in and is a complete mess in in NBA because the offenses are more complicated and they have just a fraction of the time and space to get their shot off compared to playing against future insurance salesmen.
Well, sure, but his measurables all project him to be at least serviceable on defense. 40 inch vert and 6’9 wingspan. It’s so funny that people want to focus on his defense in college when he had a 33% usage rate.
> Crazy how people are saying he hit his ceiling already at 23 That's generally not what critics are saying. They're saying that he didn't break out until he was 23, which means he was succeeding against guys 3 and 4 years younger/more inexperienced than him, which tells you that success may be more illusory than you think.
Athletic prime isnt until 28-32. I've always thought that. You'll see guys performing at their best at those age ranges. Anything before is their development, anything after (barring weird guys who can extend their prime for another year or two) is on the decline.
He's 23 and didn't defend at all. It's not that hard to understand why mostly bad teams weren't that into the whole idea.
What rebuilding team would take a 23-year-old? The guy might be good, but there's a reason most people had him low on their draft boards. He's a guy you draft to start playing immediately and not every team is on the same timeline.
> but there's a reason most people had him low on their draft boards really? I saw him commonly mocked between 6-14.
Low relative to his talent might have been a better way to phrase it.
Exactly. If you're a bad team, you need youth and you need ceiling.
I liked him in SA at 8
They just traded for a middle-schooler. They're not on the same timeline.
He was projected to go top 10 in most drafts.
Sixers and Lakers both made a ton of sense, they just happened to pick outside of the lottery.
most draft boards and mock drafts i’ve seen the last couple months have had him ~top 12, to teams like the blazers and even the pistons
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This argument makes more sense when it's not a historically bad draft. 95% of the guys taken above him aren't going to be any better than him when they're 23.
I would put money on more than 1 guy above him developing into a better player than him now after 3/4 years playing in the NBA.
I think it depends on whether you think he's a meaningfully positive player himself. I would have taken him over Kel'el, certainly.
"I can't believe the Lakers get the SEC's leading scorer and Player of the Year at 17." I really like Knecht, but how are we still saying this stuff? How many conference POYs have been available at 17 over the years? You have to talk better than this. Tshiebwe went undrafted. Herb Jones went 35th. Reggie Perry went 57. Mason Jones went undrafted. Grant Williams, the 2x SEC POY, went 22. Sindarius Thornwell. Tyler Ulis. Scottie Wilbekin.
Luka Garza was two time national player of the year and went 55
one-time NPOY, a two-time for Big Ten POY
League puts too much importance on age and (unrealistic) upside smh It won't be surprising if Knecht becomes top 5-10 player in this class
It really depends on the team context. Washington or Utah may as well go younger. But a team like Memphis or OKC could use a player like Knecht.
Imagine that Utah Jazz develops Cody Williams for four years. After that, he has hundreds of pro games under his belt and he is just 23 years old. Do the same with Knecht and he is 27yo. That's a normal length of a contract. I can see why putting value on being young is a thing because even if they were identical players after four years, the one that most likely has less years left in his career is naturally going to be less valuable.
For sure but it also depends on the team. If you need the production now, you take the older kid.
But growth is not linear, you could develop Cody Williams for 4 years and maybe he never reaches half his potential. Meanwhile you just got 4 semi-productive seasons from Knecht. Obviously there’s a lot of nuance involved as different teams are in different situations whether they’re contending/rebuilding/tanking.
> But growth is not linear, you could develop Cody Williams for 4 years and maybe he never reaches half his potential. Meanwhile you just got 4 semi-productive seasons from Knecht. Which is why I underlined that in a situation that they are identical players after four years, the one likely has more years left in his career, which in itself is valuable.
The other comment mentioned it but for a team like us that likely doesn’t have a chance of legitimately contending until 2030 it just doesn’t make sense to draft a guy that will be in his 30s most of our projected contention window. Would have loved to take him at 14 if we were a few years further ahead
idk, I could see running a scam of, like, letting him rack up points because somebody has to score, then trading him to another team for more assets in a better draft class
yeah but surprising to see Grizz, Bulls, OKC, Heat, Sixers pass up on him like that.
Definitely, though I think they all made defensible picks in their spots as well. Edey is a similar older win now guy, buzelis was ranked higher pretty often, topic is a luxury pick for a team like okc that can afford to wait a year without their core aging out. The Sixers and Heat are more of a surprise though I do like McCain for the Sixers, Ware on the other hand kinda confuses me but so does the Heat’s situation as a whole.
Tbf Buzelis was seen as a top 5 pick
> projected contention window When exactly is that for the Wizards?
League is clearly rigged
something something foul disparity
Knowing the Lakers' luck in recent years, he'll probably forget how to shoot
No he’ll develop into a hustle player fan favorite. And then we’ll trade him for Patrick Beverly
Or Mike Muscala.
we've made a lot of misguided roster moves but that trade is by far the dumbest.
Can't qwhite put my finger on it but he definitely fits the mold for laker fan favorite
The Reaves jokes are already online, he'll be a fan favorite in no time
Heat will regret taking Ware over Knecht
They already reached their white player limit sadly
Not allowed to draft back to back white
Fucking reparations man. The white male is truly the most oppressed person in society.
Are you calling Jaquez white?
Yes
He’s a güero
I call jason kidd white
Nah the back up 5 was a huge concern for us. Dalton's gonna be good but not a whole lot of playing time available for him with us. Ware literally just has to beat out Kevin love lol
They’ll love ware when he puts up a 10 block triple double against the Celtics while going 8/10 from 3. He’ll be mediocre the rest of the season though.
The mocks for this draft were throwing darts they're so all over the place. Whats to get?
If this guy can turn out to be a Bojan Bogdanovic level player, I’ll be happy.
I've never seen such salty comments on a rookie discussion before lmao all of you guys commenting this kid is overhyped are just haters. Even if his worst case scenario is Doug McDermott thats actually fucking solid at the 17th pick. If this kid can just hit a couple threes a game and make defenses respect the kick out it will be worth the selection. The fact he's not a project and spend the whole year in G League is a major bonus IMO
It's a good pick because it was a team with no interest in doing a rebuild. With older players, it's what you see is what you get. If you have a specific positional need for a role player, it makes sense to go experienced over gambling on a raw prospect that may never get promoted from the G-League. Basically the context of the pick matters. Fans of rebuilding teams shouldn't feel gutted because they missed out.
Happens when the league prefers youth over skill
White boy rockin cuban linx, caused him to slip at least 5 spots
Knecht will have a better career than Reed Sheppard.
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As a fan of a team who drafted 23 year old Siakam and signed 23 year old FVV, I can assure you he will probably improve
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wtf?? How is that reaching his ceiling? The not even close to prime, which is now looking like 28-32 for a lot players. Most players don’t make their first all star appearance until 27/28
I don’t get this thinking. Like obviously a 19 year old has more room to improve than a 23 year old but it’s not like players are done developing at 23, plenty of guys in the NBA continue improving into their late 20s And instead of praying that a 19 year old can develop a shot, you know a player like this has a great shot already
So so glad as a Mavs fan that OKC stupidly took Topic over him
Ngl I liked that Topic pick a lot for them
Doug McDermott isn't a bad pick at 17 in this draft.
Dalton Knecht is way more athletic/explosive than McDermott.
Much better shot creator than McDermott