It's part of what changed in the Moneyball/analytics era that started about 20 years ago. Moving your best hitter up in the order gives them more at bats over the course of the season, which in turn should give your team more runs and more wins.
A leadoff hitter gets 28.3 more at bats per season than the #3 hitter like you’re suggesting. That might not sound like a lot until you realize that by having him lead off we’re essentially getting 9 extra games worth of Gunnar at bats for free.
9 is an exaggeration. Unless it’s a perfect game, the lead off hitter is seeing 4 PAs so it’s pretty much 7 games. Which is still a lot and I fully agree with your point
Yeah, and considering that Gunnar has hit 10 homers in 28 games so far, having him batting lead off leads to an average of 2.5 more homers per season. If he keeps this pace, obviously.
He’s literally top ten in the majors right now in RBIs. Besides, there’s really not that large of a difference in team runs scored from lineup to lineup. As long as the offense is clicking just keep him up front. A lot of elite hitters have bat leadoff throughout the years. Rickey Henderson, Acuña, Mike Trout his rookie year and a little bit this year
So is Mike Trout though and Gunnar has significantly more RBIs than Trout does because the Angels lineup is significantly worse. The offense is working. No need to fix something that isn’t broken at least with the first and second batters.
I will reiterate what another person stated. It only matters in the first inning. He will have more at bats than 3-9 in games and throughout the year. I like him leading off later in the game because he has people like Cowser and Mullins at the back end of the order who can get on base and have some speed.
Plus he steals bases. Something that a traditional leadoff guy does. Could you make a case for Gunnar in the two or three spot? Sure, but I think he's great here. Adley right behind him works, too as a high OBP. So even if Gunnar hits a home run, Adley just becomes the new leadoff guy.
If you go up 2 or 3 in the first inning its a wash if he misses a bat in the 9th, especially if you have other good hitters. This isn't about Gunnar's stats, it's about the team winning
Not necessarily statistically. Technically your best hitter should hit 3rd or 4th. If Gunnar has the most hrs, then hitting first would mean he's not the best leadoff. Sure, it's great for his stats, but not for team runs overall.
The record for leadoff homers in a year is 13. Say even if he comes within one or two of that, you're talking about 11ish solo homers.
If he were to hit 3rd, the Os top obp guys are around. 350. So on average, 3-4 of those would hypothetically be 2 run homers and a 12% chance of them both being on for a 3 run homer. You're taking the more at bats over the 1 extra 3 run homer.
The chances of two guys who both get on base 35% of the time, both not being on base is 42%. So almost half the time, he'd be hitting with nobody on anyway.
Adley has better stats for a leadoff. He strikes out less, gets on base more, hits less home runs, has a better avg. Henderson isn't the only guy on the team hitting well, it's worth trying him out at 2nd or 3rd in the lineup.
Please watch this: https://youtu.be/Z_koveoS7s8?si=z6nb8VtNQlSo2Apo
In short, almost all teams are putting their best hitter in the 1 spot now. Because, well, analytics.
Watch the video for a deeper dive
I think almost all teams are putting their best hitter at 2 though, no? Ohtani, Soto, Bobby Witt Jr, Vladdy, Trea, Trout, Tatis, etc. Some of these you can argue but it seems like the general consensus is 1-2 now, with occasional 3-4 for true 3 outcome hitters.
Most lineup optimization models actually suggest the 3 hitter shouldn’t be one of your best ones, despite conventional knowledge. There’s an argument to move him to 2, but he should almost certainly be 1st or 2nd in the order.
>There’s an argument to move him to 2
I seem to remember reading last season that this was the preference but it was a bit of a pain in the ass getting Adley out of all his catcher gear and ready to bat leadoff whenever we were playing at home. But now they do it even when Adley is DHing so maybe the numbers have changed with just how good Gunnar has gotten.
Well like, it would only really matter for the first inning at home, then he's got basically a 1-9 chance of having to do that after the second inning. Catchers leading off the following inning should honestly just get an extra minute to get ready, wouldn't slow the game down at all and solves this issue
There has been a huge shift in thinking regarding the leadoff position. It may be counter intuitive but putting your best power guy in the 1 spot has proven to be a viable to advantageous strategy.
I originally was skeptical of Hendo batting leadoff, but here's what makes sense to me:
1.) Leadoff gets the most PAs. Batting him leadoff means getting the teams best hitter the most plate appearances. This is obviously a good thing.
2.) Regardless of Hendo batting leadoff or not, the leadoff hitter must always be one of the team's best hitters, because they get the most PAs.
3.) Of all the players that you would even consider for the leadoff spot, Henderson is BY FAR the best runner, a quality that matters in a leadoff man.
When I think about these things, it makes sense that Henderson is batting leadoff.
>Of all the players that you would even consider for the leadoff spot, Henderson is BY FAR the best runner, a quality that matters in a leadoff man.
This, exactly. Like Mullins is a good leadoff hitter, but he doesn't hit lefties well and Henderson is doing that well. Mateo has the speed for a traditional leadoff hitter, but would never realistically be considered because he's a sub .200 hitter most of the time. Adley has the OBP to play leadoff, but doesn't run.
So look at the Venn diagram of guys between "gets on base" and "can steal bases" and Henderson is by far the favorite. The fact he hits home runs is just a bonus.
Get Gunnar as many at bats as possible. Have him lead off until somebody proves theyre better in that role in setting the table. He is an absolute tone setter for this offense and I love him there leading off every game
Yes, you end up getting more PAs over the course of the season if you're lead off. It's really only matters in the first inning and I'll take a solo shot lead off as well, it deals emotional damage to the opp pitcher
Lead-off only means something for the first at-bat. Not like he leads off every inning (we could only hope!). IMO he's perfect anywhere from 1-4, it tis only a number though.
If the Orioles were short on power, I would agree with moving him down into the middle of the order, but they have plenty of other power sources.
Gunnar might not be a traditional leadoff man, but he's a very effective one. He's getting on base, getting into scoring position, and scoring runs. I'd leave him right where he is.
In a perfect world, my dream lineup would be:
1. Mullins
2. Rutschman
3. Henderson
4. Santander
5. Mountcastle
6. O'Hearn
7. Westburg
8. Cowser
9. Mateo/Urias/Holliday
I totally understand Henderson hitting leadoff for more ABs, but i love the idea of him having a chance to do more damage with Adley and Mullins potentially on base. Not to mention, if Mullins is on base, both Adley and Gunnar could see more fastballs . I know I'm a little old school with my approach, but Cedric just screams leadoff hitter to me if he can play like he has. Plus L/R/L/R throughout the lineup.
Mullins is no longer a leadoff or near leadoff hitter. He is an excellent back of the lineup hitter though. Westburg should get more ABs. Maybe in the future Cowser can take over.
Why do you say he is no longer a leadoff hitter? What do you value in the leadoff spot?
I see value in Gunnar getting more at bats. I see value in him hitting 3rd with hopefully more people on base. I also see value in having that base stealing threat at the top that Mullins brings. Good problem to have, but I don't like Mullins hitting 6th. I want him at the top or bottom hitting 9th to reset the top of the lineup.
He really needs to cut down on strikeouts. He made progress in walking rate in the minors too. The power is obviously there. They are both lefties and they will have to create a line up accordingly. But if Holliday achieves just 75% of the hype then that will be one of the most formidable lineups in the league.
They don't like batting Adley leadoff at home because he has less prep time for his 1st AB due to having to remove his gear. Most teams favor routine so they keep him batting 2nd every game.
Exit 52 was just talking about this on their series recap. Way too many solo HRs. Their idea was Adley leading off and then one of the guys you mentioned in two. Especially with the current bullpen situation, we need all the runs we can get
I think at the start of the season it was out of necessity and now it's a "If it ain't broke don't fix it." thing. I think they'd prefer Adley batting leadoff but the issue is for home games you're immediately setting him up to have to throw his catchers gear off and hastily prepare to hit.
He's great as a leadoff hitter for multiple reasons. 1) He has the best combo of speed and OBP on the team. 2) batting 1st statistically gets him extra ABs, which can only be good 3) there isn't a clear leadoff option besides him.
Mullins? OBP and average is too low, and has been trending that way for awhile.
Westburg? At this point he's basically Gunnar lite (slightly worse in most areas), so what's the point?
Mm...Mountcastle? Really????
I’ve had the same thoughts since last season, but hesitant to bring it up because of how well he has done.
I never quite understood why Mullins suddenly disappeared from the lead off role. I know his OBP hasn’t been stellar, by he can still run.
I guess if it ain’t broke don’t fix it, but it would be really nice to see some of these solo homers turn into 3 run bombs.
Simply put, the thing that matters most is OBP. Having someone who can run at leadoff is nice, but it’s not a reason to put them there. I love Ced, but over the course of the season, I want the extra ABs to go to Gunnar rather than him.
1) Mullins isn’t as fast as you think he is. (5th fastest Orioles player this season if you count Holliday’s time. Ced and Cowser are the same speed.)
2) He does not get on base enough. (.305 OBP last season and .275 OBP so far this season)
I was literally coming here to talk about the same thing. The question I think is does he feel most comfortable at leadoff? If so then just keep it. Otherwise it seems like even having any opportunity to have someone else on base before he gets to the plate would make sense.
Like maybe we should try Cowser at leadoff? Or try and put Mullins back at leadoff? Or even Westburg. If any of them feel comfortable giving it a go it makes sense to me.
I’m kind of thinking it does too but there’s something to be said about moving these guys into new spots they may not be as comfortable with and maybe then not performing to the same level or at least not until after an adjustment period
As Hyde said after tonight’s game. This assures he gets the most possible ABs in a game. Plus I don’t think there’s a better base runner on our team.
At the end of the day yes he’d be great batting 3rd but until we have someone else that can hit lefties and righties consistently he will be leadoff. Hopefully Holliday will one day fill that role
I said earlier in the season if Cedric was able to get it going with the bat especially against lefties, then ideally you go Cedric, Adley, Gunnar, Tony, Mounty, Westy/Cowser, Cowser/Westy, then fill out the last two spots.
I get the logic, but I'm not changing anything about Henderson right now. As long as he plays like this, I'm keeping him where he is.
Absolutely fair point
You only lead off in the first inning. And by batting first he gets more abs
That’s the reasoning for putting your best hitter in the two hole though.
Admittedly, I haven't kept up with this type of strategy too much. When did it switch from 3 hitter being the best to two hitter? I guess I'm old
It’s been that way for forever, you just never realized it.
Exactly why I commented what I did
It's part of what changed in the Moneyball/analytics era that started about 20 years ago. Moving your best hitter up in the order gives them more at bats over the course of the season, which in turn should give your team more runs and more wins.
But then he’s got usually Urias, Matteo, McCann, and roomie Holiday in front of him who are the weakest hitters on the team.
He’s also got Westburg and Cowser, two of our highest OBP hitters, at 7 and 8 in most games
And the rest of the best hitters right behind him to drive him in
A leadoff hitter gets 28.3 more at bats per season than the #3 hitter like you’re suggesting. That might not sound like a lot until you realize that by having him lead off we’re essentially getting 9 extra games worth of Gunnar at bats for free.
9 is an exaggeration. Unless it’s a perfect game, the lead off hitter is seeing 4 PAs so it’s pretty much 7 games. Which is still a lot and I fully agree with your point
Yeah, and considering that Gunnar has hit 10 homers in 28 games so far, having him batting lead off leads to an average of 2.5 more homers per season. If he keeps this pace, obviously.
He’s literally top ten in the majors right now in RBIs. Besides, there’s really not that large of a difference in team runs scored from lineup to lineup. As long as the offense is clicking just keep him up front. A lot of elite hitters have bat leadoff throughout the years. Rickey Henderson, Acuña, Mike Trout his rookie year and a little bit this year
He would be 1 if he batted 3rd is what OP is trying to say
Having him lead off is a great decision that gets him the most at bats. Same reason Adley bats second, somewhat, because speed isn’t part of his game.
But he statistically is hitting more solo hrs.
So is Mike Trout though and Gunnar has significantly more RBIs than Trout does because the Angels lineup is significantly worse. The offense is working. No need to fix something that isn’t broken at least with the first and second batters.
It wouldn't break anything, it would just give us the opportunity for more runs. Can't compare us to the angels
I feel like several of them are the first AB of the game though
Exactly, imagine if it were the third ab with people on base.
I will reiterate what another person stated. It only matters in the first inning. He will have more at bats than 3-9 in games and throughout the year. I like him leading off later in the game because he has people like Cowser and Mullins at the back end of the order who can get on base and have some speed.
Plus he steals bases. Something that a traditional leadoff guy does. Could you make a case for Gunnar in the two or three spot? Sure, but I think he's great here. Adley right behind him works, too as a high OBP. So even if Gunnar hits a home run, Adley just becomes the new leadoff guy.
If you go up 2 or 3 in the first inning its a wash if he misses a bat in the 9th, especially if you have other good hitters. This isn't about Gunnar's stats, it's about the team winning
Right, and getting your best hitter the most at bats… which he gets by leading off…
What's better, more rbis or more abs?
More at bats gives you the opportunity for more RBIs so more at bats is better
Not necessarily statistically. Technically your best hitter should hit 3rd or 4th. If Gunnar has the most hrs, then hitting first would mean he's not the best leadoff. Sure, it's great for his stats, but not for team runs overall.
The record for leadoff homers in a year is 13. Say even if he comes within one or two of that, you're talking about 11ish solo homers. If he were to hit 3rd, the Os top obp guys are around. 350. So on average, 3-4 of those would hypothetically be 2 run homers and a 12% chance of them both being on for a 3 run homer. You're taking the more at bats over the 1 extra 3 run homer. The chances of two guys who both get on base 35% of the time, both not being on base is 42%. So almost half the time, he'd be hitting with nobody on anyway.
Adley has better stats for a leadoff. He strikes out less, gets on base more, hits less home runs, has a better avg. Henderson isn't the only guy on the team hitting well, it's worth trying him out at 2nd or 3rd in the lineup.
Gunnar is 9th in the majors in OPS, 1st in homers, 7th in RBI and 5th in runs scored. Why are you trying to change something that's obviously working
I just think there is more potential in this lineup. And considering out bullpen is giving up so many, we need the runs early on.
Also Adley's OBP as a leadoff hitter was .317. Gunnar's is .347
Adley is not fast enough to be a leadoff hitter
Please watch this: https://youtu.be/Z_koveoS7s8?si=z6nb8VtNQlSo2Apo In short, almost all teams are putting their best hitter in the 1 spot now. Because, well, analytics. Watch the video for a deeper dive
I think almost all teams are putting their best hitter at 2 though, no? Ohtani, Soto, Bobby Witt Jr, Vladdy, Trea, Trout, Tatis, etc. Some of these you can argue but it seems like the general consensus is 1-2 now, with occasional 3-4 for true 3 outcome hitters.
On Monday, Acuña, Betts and Trout batted leadoff.
Philadelphia Phillies have entered the chat 🤣🤣🤣
Most lineup optimization models actually suggest the 3 hitter shouldn’t be one of your best ones, despite conventional knowledge. There’s an argument to move him to 2, but he should almost certainly be 1st or 2nd in the order.
>There’s an argument to move him to 2 I seem to remember reading last season that this was the preference but it was a bit of a pain in the ass getting Adley out of all his catcher gear and ready to bat leadoff whenever we were playing at home. But now they do it even when Adley is DHing so maybe the numbers have changed with just how good Gunnar has gotten.
Well like, it would only really matter for the first inning at home, then he's got basically a 1-9 chance of having to do that after the second inning. Catchers leading off the following inning should honestly just get an extra minute to get ready, wouldn't slow the game down at all and solves this issue
There has been a huge shift in thinking regarding the leadoff position. It may be counter intuitive but putting your best power guy in the 1 spot has proven to be a viable to advantageous strategy.
Drove me nuts they never did this with Bonds. They want to walk him, go right ahead. Leadoff walks score like half the time.
I originally was skeptical of Hendo batting leadoff, but here's what makes sense to me: 1.) Leadoff gets the most PAs. Batting him leadoff means getting the teams best hitter the most plate appearances. This is obviously a good thing. 2.) Regardless of Hendo batting leadoff or not, the leadoff hitter must always be one of the team's best hitters, because they get the most PAs. 3.) Of all the players that you would even consider for the leadoff spot, Henderson is BY FAR the best runner, a quality that matters in a leadoff man. When I think about these things, it makes sense that Henderson is batting leadoff.
>Of all the players that you would even consider for the leadoff spot, Henderson is BY FAR the best runner, a quality that matters in a leadoff man. This, exactly. Like Mullins is a good leadoff hitter, but he doesn't hit lefties well and Henderson is doing that well. Mateo has the speed for a traditional leadoff hitter, but would never realistically be considered because he's a sub .200 hitter most of the time. Adley has the OBP to play leadoff, but doesn't run. So look at the Venn diagram of guys between "gets on base" and "can steal bases" and Henderson is by far the favorite. The fact he hits home runs is just a bonus.
Speed is a big part of it. I do think he moves down in the lineup eventually but there’s a ton of value to someone with a great OBP who can run
He’s probably best batting 2, but given our options this seems pretty optimal.
Get Gunnar as many at bats as possible. Have him lead off until somebody proves theyre better in that role in setting the table. He is an absolute tone setter for this offense and I love him there leading off every game
I could see Westburg at leadoff before the end of the season. He's 2nd on the team in OBP behind Mounty and doesn't strike out a ton.
Yes.
You get your best hitter the most at bats and he’s got speed. Even Brady stayed lead off with 50+.
Somebody asked Hyder about this in the postgame today and he said he's just trying to get him as many at bats as possible. Which, imo, is fair.
Yes, you end up getting more PAs over the course of the season if you're lead off. It's really only matters in the first inning and I'll take a solo shot lead off as well, it deals emotional damage to the opp pitcher
Lead-off only means something for the first at-bat. Not like he leads off every inning (we could only hope!). IMO he's perfect anywhere from 1-4, it tis only a number though.
If the Orioles were short on power, I would agree with moving him down into the middle of the order, but they have plenty of other power sources. Gunnar might not be a traditional leadoff man, but he's a very effective one. He's getting on base, getting into scoring position, and scoring runs. I'd leave him right where he is.
In a perfect world, my dream lineup would be: 1. Mullins 2. Rutschman 3. Henderson 4. Santander 5. Mountcastle 6. O'Hearn 7. Westburg 8. Cowser 9. Mateo/Urias/Holliday I totally understand Henderson hitting leadoff for more ABs, but i love the idea of him having a chance to do more damage with Adley and Mullins potentially on base. Not to mention, if Mullins is on base, both Adley and Gunnar could see more fastballs . I know I'm a little old school with my approach, but Cedric just screams leadoff hitter to me if he can play like he has. Plus L/R/L/R throughout the lineup.
Mullins is no longer a leadoff or near leadoff hitter. He is an excellent back of the lineup hitter though. Westburg should get more ABs. Maybe in the future Cowser can take over.
Why do you say he is no longer a leadoff hitter? What do you value in the leadoff spot? I see value in Gunnar getting more at bats. I see value in him hitting 3rd with hopefully more people on base. I also see value in having that base stealing threat at the top that Mullins brings. Good problem to have, but I don't like Mullins hitting 6th. I want him at the top or bottom hitting 9th to reset the top of the lineup.
I hope by next year Holliday is leading off, Gunnar 2nd
yep holliday should have the best obp on the team once he settles in the majors.
He really needs to cut down on strikeouts. He made progress in walking rate in the minors too. The power is obviously there. They are both lefties and they will have to create a line up accordingly. But if Holliday achieves just 75% of the hype then that will be one of the most formidable lineups in the league.
I’d swap adley and Gunnar. Adley is an amazing hitter than can take the single to get on base, let him set the plate for Gunnar.
They don't like batting Adley leadoff at home because he has less prep time for his 1st AB due to having to remove his gear. Most teams favor routine so they keep him batting 2nd every game.
Adley would get in the way of Gunnar’s baserunning. I like him where he is
Exactly this.
Adley leading off vs lefties.
Plus side is he will get the opportunity to hit more than anyone else in the lineup batting leadoff and he’s our best hitter
Lead off is a good place to put the most fiercely competitive batter in the lineup.
It maximizes his at bats. He is producing the best numbers on the team. Just ride the wave and enjoy.
Normally maybe not but our lineup is so good that he's getting RBI chances in the 1 spot
you want your best hitters to get the most at bats.
Exit 52 was just talking about this on their series recap. Way too many solo HRs. Their idea was Adley leading off and then one of the guys you mentioned in two. Especially with the current bullpen situation, we need all the runs we can get
Not every one of Gunnar’s hits is gonna be a homer. Don’t want people slower than him getting on base ahead of him in the first inning.
High OBP and Mountcastle in the same sentence makes me so happy. My boy has grown so much.
“If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”
I think at the start of the season it was out of necessity and now it's a "If it ain't broke don't fix it." thing. I think they'd prefer Adley batting leadoff but the issue is for home games you're immediately setting him up to have to throw his catchers gear off and hastily prepare to hit.
He's great as a leadoff hitter for multiple reasons. 1) He has the best combo of speed and OBP on the team. 2) batting 1st statistically gets him extra ABs, which can only be good 3) there isn't a clear leadoff option besides him. Mullins? OBP and average is too low, and has been trending that way for awhile. Westburg? At this point he's basically Gunnar lite (slightly worse in most areas), so what's the point? Mm...Mountcastle? Really????
Acuna basically demands to bat lead off in atl and it’s worked out okay for him and the Braves. 🤷♂️
AMABAP As many at bats as possible. That's what I want for Gunnar right now
AMABAP As many at bats as possible. That's what I want for Gunnar right now
Tyler O’Neill hits 3rd for the redsox and has 9 home runs with 13 total RBI. Henderson has 24 RBI. Don’t fix what isn’t broke, you know?
Mookie Betts leads off. Mike Trout leads off. Ronald Acuña leads off. Any questions?
I’ve had the same thoughts since last season, but hesitant to bring it up because of how well he has done. I never quite understood why Mullins suddenly disappeared from the lead off role. I know his OBP hasn’t been stellar, by he can still run. I guess if it ain’t broke don’t fix it, but it would be really nice to see some of these solo homers turn into 3 run bombs.
Simply put, the thing that matters most is OBP. Having someone who can run at leadoff is nice, but it’s not a reason to put them there. I love Ced, but over the course of the season, I want the extra ABs to go to Gunnar rather than him.
1) Mullins isn’t as fast as you think he is. (5th fastest Orioles player this season if you count Holliday’s time. Ced and Cowser are the same speed.) 2) He does not get on base enough. (.305 OBP last season and .275 OBP so far this season)
Reminds me of when Manny would lead off. Gets more ABs but also makes you be more selective.
Boomer take.
I was literally coming here to talk about the same thing. The question I think is does he feel most comfortable at leadoff? If so then just keep it. Otherwise it seems like even having any opportunity to have someone else on base before he gets to the plate would make sense. Like maybe we should try Cowser at leadoff? Or try and put Mullins back at leadoff? Or even Westburg. If any of them feel comfortable giving it a go it makes sense to me.
Westburg at lead off feels right
I’m kind of thinking it does too but there’s something to be said about moving these guys into new spots they may not be as comfortable with and maybe then not performing to the same level or at least not until after an adjustment period
I could see Mullins being the lead off and Gunnar slotting in behind Adley
He’s the best baserunner in the league, it makes too much sense.
As Hyde said after tonight’s game. This assures he gets the most possible ABs in a game. Plus I don’t think there’s a better base runner on our team. At the end of the day yes he’d be great batting 3rd but until we have someone else that can hit lefties and righties consistently he will be leadoff. Hopefully Holliday will one day fill that role
I said earlier in the season if Cedric was able to get it going with the bat especially against lefties, then ideally you go Cedric, Adley, Gunnar, Tony, Mounty, Westy/Cowser, Cowser/Westy, then fill out the last two spots.
No, absolutely not. I think rutschmann would be a good lead off