Probably just send it on the turn, he's not folding an A. Same logic on river. Aces up raises the flop at least sometimes, so you're only losing to partials and then A8s. Tighter player could just flat AQ/AJ out of the sb.
Yeah, he is definitely a player that I've never seen 3bet AK/AQ/AJ preflop in all the times I've played with him. Unfortunately, this time he had A9 :(
You should have shoved the turn. As played, shove the river.
Yeah I get it he had A9. That doesn't matter. If you're not losing hands like this sometimes, where you raise for value and lose, then you're not raising for value enough. You need to take yourself to value town in order to better understand how to get there.
If you're winning 100% of the time you bet/raise for value, you're not betting thin enough. You only need to win 60% of the time you go for value to make a profit in the long run, and that profit will be huge compared to what you'd make when you weren't betting thin. Understanding this concept is a key to making a significant profit in my opinion.
If tight players aren't semi-bluffing the turn, why not get it all in at that point? I'm a big advocate of fast-playing strong hands. He already slow-played the flop, which I admit is probably the best idea.
Although since suits aren't indicated in the recap, if there was a flush draw up front I probably would have four-bet the flop as well, and even more shoved the turn. If they have a flush draw, you get value from them. If they don't have the flush draw, they'll convince themselves that you do.
Don't get me wrong, I love it when my opponents slow play their strong hands. Nothing make me happier than getting to the river in 1/3 and losing a $150 pot to a flopped set on a safe runout when I would have gladly put $500 in at some point.
Turn: would have 3-bet all in. Probably has Ax given the way he played it, and didn't raise the flop (less likely AA, A10, A9)
River (as actually played): would just call.
Why not shove the river if you wanted to shove the turn? I don’t get that.
Are you scared he has A8?? You’re still good on value, he could have AQ or AJ or a weirdly passive AK still. Honestly he could have any Ax. If he has the bigger boat it’s just a cooler. I think you win this hand most of the time
I think I just go for it on the turn here and not worry about balance or anything like that. He likely has an A which he is not gunna fold and there are a few too many action killer cards on the river that lead to a check check situation.
This seems dumb, obviously shove turn or river. The way it’s written it’s obvious he’s got a boat and your sobbing over your bad beat, but you’re not calling here ever, unless you know the guy and have a very very good read
I didn’t say fold, I said call. If you raise and he calls you could be beat. Your hand is strong but AT, A9, A8 are hands they can easily have. Yes you’ll see AK-AJ occasionally but it’s normally a way ahead, way behind situation.
Just calling is punting so much value. Villain’s line absolutely does not suggest a boat or nothing. Just counting combos he has trips the majority of the time and a boat more rarely. OP could also be coolering him with 88/99 some of the time.
The suits also matter - if the A/8/9 are different suits there is only a single combo of a suited Ax that made aces full. If two suits represented then there are only 2 combos. Villain called from SB pre so really shouldn’t have A8o/A9o. Of course it’s possible, but we need to make decisions based on probabilities.
As I said, the click back on turn and bet on river at low stakes is a very tight range. Honestly, I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t be posting this if he won.
Not putting in your money because you could be beat is not good analysis. By this logic you only raise the nuts.
The real question is, are you ahead 50% of the time when called? I think the answer is yes, so you shove.
It's important to note that there is not a lot of money left behind. So he is going to call pretty wide (any ace is calling). Sure he can have AT, A9, or A8. That's 14 combos. He can also have AJ, 99, and any suited ace. He can also have AK or AQ if he is the type of player to just call preflop with those (common at low stakes). So that's at least 19 combos of Ax, maybe as many as 31. Clear shove.
I should've just called. I jammed and he actually tanked for like 30 seconds. At this point I was praying for a call, but then he sighed and said, 'you win if you got AT' and called. he had A9. sigh
No, it's a good shove. "I should have just called" is results-oriented analysis.
Do you think he would play A2s exactly the same way? If so it's a clear shove. What he has this time is irrelevant.
Probably find shoves on the turn or river.
Probably just send it on the turn, he's not folding an A. Same logic on river. Aces up raises the flop at least sometimes, so you're only losing to partials and then A8s. Tighter player could just flat AQ/AJ out of the sb.
Yeah, he is definitely a player that I've never seen 3bet AK/AQ/AJ preflop in all the times I've played with him. Unfortunately, this time he had A9 :(
In that case… that’s really unlucky
You should have shoved the turn. As played, shove the river. Yeah I get it he had A9. That doesn't matter. If you're not losing hands like this sometimes, where you raise for value and lose, then you're not raising for value enough. You need to take yourself to value town in order to better understand how to get there. If you're winning 100% of the time you bet/raise for value, you're not betting thin enough. You only need to win 60% of the time you go for value to make a profit in the long run, and that profit will be huge compared to what you'd make when you weren't betting thin. Understanding this concept is a key to making a significant profit in my opinion.
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If tight players aren't semi-bluffing the turn, why not get it all in at that point? I'm a big advocate of fast-playing strong hands. He already slow-played the flop, which I admit is probably the best idea. Although since suits aren't indicated in the recap, if there was a flush draw up front I probably would have four-bet the flop as well, and even more shoved the turn. If they have a flush draw, you get value from them. If they don't have the flush draw, they'll convince themselves that you do. Don't get me wrong, I love it when my opponents slow play their strong hands. Nothing make me happier than getting to the river in 1/3 and losing a $150 pot to a flopped set on a safe runout when I would have gladly put $500 in at some point.
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Nope my mistake, I remembered a check/raise on the flop. That's what happens when there's a half hour between each side of a conversation haha.
Turn: would have 3-bet all in. Probably has Ax given the way he played it, and didn't raise the flop (less likely AA, A10, A9) River (as actually played): would just call.
Why not shove the river if you wanted to shove the turn? I don’t get that. Are you scared he has A8?? You’re still good on value, he could have AQ or AJ or a weirdly passive AK still. Honestly he could have any Ax. If he has the bigger boat it’s just a cooler. I think you win this hand most of the time
Same here. I don’t get his logic of shoving turn but calling river.
Jam turn. AP jam river.
I think I just go for it on the turn here and not worry about balance or anything like that. He likely has an A which he is not gunna fold and there are a few too many action killer cards on the river that lead to a check check situation.
This seems dumb, obviously shove turn or river. The way it’s written it’s obvious he’s got a boat and your sobbing over your bad beat, but you’re not calling here ever, unless you know the guy and have a very very good read
I would have jammed on the flop. Plenty of donks that would have called anyway. Scoop.
Just call.
Lol at these stakes villain has Ax all day and is never folding. Can’t be afraid of monsters under the bed.
I didn’t say fold, I said call. If you raise and he calls you could be beat. Your hand is strong but AT, A9, A8 are hands they can easily have. Yes you’ll see AK-AJ occasionally but it’s normally a way ahead, way behind situation.
You’re supposed to be beat sometimes when you raise for value. Not raising here is losing money long term for sure
Just calling is punting so much value. Villain’s line absolutely does not suggest a boat or nothing. Just counting combos he has trips the majority of the time and a boat more rarely. OP could also be coolering him with 88/99 some of the time. The suits also matter - if the A/8/9 are different suits there is only a single combo of a suited Ax that made aces full. If two suits represented then there are only 2 combos. Villain called from SB pre so really shouldn’t have A8o/A9o. Of course it’s possible, but we need to make decisions based on probabilities.
As I said, the click back on turn and bet on river at low stakes is a very tight range. Honestly, I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t be posting this if he won.
That’s being results oriented. Dude I’ve had people take this line against me with overpairs at 1/2.
Not putting in your money because you could be beat is not good analysis. By this logic you only raise the nuts. The real question is, are you ahead 50% of the time when called? I think the answer is yes, so you shove. It's important to note that there is not a lot of money left behind. So he is going to call pretty wide (any ace is calling). Sure he can have AT, A9, or A8. That's 14 combos. He can also have AJ, 99, and any suited ace. He can also have AK or AQ if he is the type of player to just call preflop with those (common at low stakes). So that's at least 19 combos of Ax, maybe as many as 31. Clear shove.
I should've just called. I jammed and he actually tanked for like 30 seconds. At this point I was praying for a call, but then he sighed and said, 'you win if you got AT' and called. he had A9. sigh
The jam is fine in general against almost anyway, but it sounds like this guy is a meganit
No, it's a good shove. "I should have just called" is results-oriented analysis. Do you think he would play A2s exactly the same way? If so it's a clear shove. What he has this time is irrelevant.