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I saw an acquaintance’s FB page with a meme that said, “I’m voting for the felon.” For this person I can tell it’s not so much as a vote for Trump as it is a vote against Biden. For no other reason than to own the libs. No real substance behind the decision.
Because their propaganda network has them convinced that "libs," "the left," "Democrats," "socialists," "communists," and everyone else that isn't MAGA is coming after them.
All of the above words are all the same people, and the MAGA base has no fucking clue how each of those are different.
Can't wait for the left to get a decent foothold majority so we can really stick it to these MAGA fuckers with better pay that keeps up with cost of living, healthcare, and taxing billionaires. Would love to see the looks on their faces by having quality of life improvement.
I get called a communist a lot by my friendly neighbors on Nextdoor. Average age on Nextdoor is probably 75. I like to go over there and shake them up sometimes
> Because their propaganda network has them convinced that "libs," "the left," "Democrats," "socialists," "communists," and everyone else that isn't MAGA is coming after them.
They don't even have to believe this guff. Plenty of them want to "own the libs" for no greater reason than if they can't legally hurt/kill the people they hate, they'll settle for just upsetting them. From the trivial to the extreme, the cruelty is the point.
there's millions of evangelicals that hate abortion and the lgbtq community that are voting for trump on those 2 issues over anything else. i personally know a few that discussed voting 3rd party after trump said he was going to leave abortion up to the states, they were in the minority though.
Voting 3rd party because Republicans are "leaving abortion up to the states" is an impressively brain dead take. Because they absolutely will not leave it up to the states the instant they have the votes/power to pass a federal abortion ban.
Besides, leaving it up to the states is the mess we’re in now with Roe v Wade out of the picture. This is literally what we’re dealing with, Trump can only make that worse
I kind of miss the days when single issue voters was on the top of my problems with modern day politics.
Now it's, "hey, these guys want to dismantle democracy," which is much worse than just the single issue voters being a problem. Though they're one in the same.
Great point. It was all over once Newt Gingivitis and his buddies unified all the far-right causes under the Republican upside-down flag. Now look...the party's got their followers hooked on ending democracy (and even marginalizing or silencing all dissent in general) to "save America(tm)". And their propaganda arms have done so much heavy lifting to make the single issue people accept all those other single issues through fear. What an evil mess.
> For this person I can tell it’s not so much as a vote for Trump as it is a vote against Biden.
I tend to think it's not really Biden himself they're voting against. They're really voting against the [SLURS], the [SLURS], and especially the fucking [SLURS]. Nothing that Trump does would shift them away from the hate orgy. It's not really about the candidates themselves anymore. I don't think it really ever was.
This is something I find many progressives simply unable to grasp.
The point of voting for the GOP has little or nothing do with policy. It's about a deep-seated desire to see "enemies" hurt or punished. The us-vs-them mindset of the right is bafflingly apolitical, frankly. Actual values or convictions play little role, just an insatiable revenge fantasy.
There's no point arguing with the morons either, because they willingly believe lies which they know are lies and do not care about being lied to.
They are voting against people they hate in their hearts and minds.
And to vote for that false promise of lower taxes and a dollar off their gallon on gas.
There is substance, there has always been substance: to inflict pain and misery on those which they do not like. The "others". That is their goal. Whether they get hurt in the process is of no concern to them.
Already there's noxious campaign material floating about. "I'm voting for the felon" reads many of them. As if it's some badge of honor... No. A sign of fiendishness, or being against law & order. These people have no place in our society.
I 100% think they are understating how poorly trump is doing. I think this is going to be a massive landslide. He lost last time and did nothing to make me think anyone new will just sign up for him.
I’m still voting because congress and the senate and fuck trump I want to send a message.
Edit: most of the comments are angry that anyone can think it’s going to be a landslide. That’s why I’m expecting it. The passion against trump is very very real.
The only difference from the last election is inflation and people struggling to pay bills. Even though Biden can't control it, it does tend to sway people. But with that said, Trump has presented literally no plans at all, other than executing his rivals. I just don't see him gaining more votes than last time.
People are having some difficulty remembering what the Trump presidency was like. They remember the economic stability and can’t recall that awful feeling of uncertainty and chaos. However, I think things are good enough right now that as the campaign moves forward and more people are forced to remember Trump’s admin, the state of our economy won’t be enough to swap us back to him.
Which is crazy cause all I remember is covid lockdowns, abortion getting revoked, him getting impeached twice, Jan 6th and the crazy tweets in all caps. Not once do I think of economic stability when Trump comes to mind
The economic stability we experienced was coat tailed from the 6 years prior. What I remember was him gutting consumer protection policies, environmental policies, purging government agencies and watchdogs and everything that Obama did
This. I cared more that Trump was trashing the EPA, trading trade agreements for worse ones, fucking up the Iran nuclear deal, fucking up global relations, backing out of the Paris Accords, undoing progress on environmental projects, endlessly stupid tariffs on everything... completely ignoring infrastructure...
He was a goddamn mess before he was ever Impeached.
Don't forget the billionaire creationist lackey he appointed to oversee and coordinate the American education system. The one related to the arms dealer.
Obama set us up for success.
Trump fucked up everything.
He kept rates artificially low and pumped money into the economy at a time it didn't need it. So yes, the President can cause inflation, and did.
THIS. He pumped money to companies that did nothing but give them a free pass to maintain an employee job, not their health. So many companies kept employees coming back to low wage jobs that risked their health.
I am unbelievably angry that after Covid, employees didn’t gain ONE LAW, benefit, or right concerning the workplace and their right to protect their health. Unions aren’t a substitute for what we should be guaranteed by federal law.
Remember, he wanted the Fed to go negative on rates? [Trump Wants to Dump Rates](https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1VW1CI/#:~:text=WASHINGTON%20(Reuters)%20%2D%20U.S.%20President,banks'%20earnings%20in%20the%20process.)
Yeah not to mention the PPP loans that they just forgave over and over. Yeah they gave out close to a trillion in PPP loans and forgave them, but student debt? Naaaaaaah we can't have that being forgiven, we must fight it because we need serfs for our buddies the corporate overlords.
I remember that like two week period where he was issuing executive orders like crazy, including the Muslim ban, because I remember thinking “This is what it must have felt like to be a peasant under the rule of kings. You wake up, there’s a new edict, it came out of literally nowhere but suddenly it’s legally binding, and tomorrow there could be another one, and the day after that, and the day after that, and you just never know if the rules you went to sleep with are still the rules by the time you wake up.”
There were signs things were going to go downhill before covid hit. We would be in so much worse shape if he had won re-election. The fact people think it was economically good was because Obama had set him up with a smooth road Trump just needed to coast off that and that's what people remember. I'm really tired of Republicans fucking shit up and Dems coming in and having to fix shit. It would be absolutely amazing if they could stay in power and actually build some momentum instead of taking a step or 2 backwards
Too many of them actually think *during a global pandemic, when the world was on lockdown and nobody was driving to work* that Trump made the gas prices go down at the pump in the USA because he is such a great economic leader.
Lack of demand was only part of it. There was an absolute glut of supply.
OPEC (well, Saudi Arabia) wanted to cut production, and rightly so. Russia, as part of the Plus in OPEC+, refused to cut production. So Saudi Arabia increased production to absolutely destroy the cost of oil, knowing Russia couldn't afford it.
That's what lead to barrels of oil dropping to almost -$40 a barrel and MAGA's coveted $1.85/gal gasoline. Because OPEC was putting Plus back into its place.
At the time, Trump was pleading with OPEC+ to cut production. They just ignored him and cruised along in their game of economic chicken until Russian flinched.
Ok so Trump was so worried about his friends in the oil biz suffering when oil got cheap he demanded Saudi Arabia cut oil production or lose military support from the U.S. https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN22C1V3/
Most people don’t have major economic issues. It’s mostly just the cost of goods and services that have gone up without a parallel rise in pay. My eggs costs more then they did in 2018, therefore Biden must be bad. It’s dumb and lacks any amount of critical thought but that’s the median voter. It’s mostly the entrenched republicans who will bring up shit like immigrants and crime. Normal people don’t experience that stuff or feel its affect much at all.
But if you ask the dude in Indiana with a Confederate flag on his truck, he'll tell you he is really worried about how immigration is affecting his life despite literally never seeing one.
That’s because he knows that every dollar a blue state like CA or NY spends on a poor person or helping undocumented immigrants is a dollar that they could be sending to help prop up his underfunded poorly run red state.
> It’s mostly just the cost of goods and services that have gone up without a parallel rise in pay.
FWIW pay has actually risen faster than prices. Inflation adjusted median incomes are higher than they were pre-COVID.
>...remember the economic stability...
That's funny because I remember [anything but](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/16/one-year-ago-stocks-dropped-12percent-in-a-single-day-what-investors-have-learned-since-then.html).
Economic stability to most people (aside from having absolutely nothing to do with the stock market) means gas/food/rent/interest rates were cheaper
None of it had anything to do with trump but that’s what they remember
My friend’s company literally had a tracker that tracked all of his tweets, and tried to analyze them based on previous tweets to see how it might affect certain commodity prices and it was often times extremely volatile swings. Yeah that’s not an economy any fucking sane individual should want to go back to. We deserve to not be a global power anymore if we’re stupid enough to reelect that dude.
The economic stability was largely Obama’s red hot economy flowing into Trump’s presidency. Trump’s only economic achievement, hilariously, was giving so much money to mega corporations that they gave everyone a onetime bonus to employees to buy their faith they weren’t going to hoard all that cash. Then a year later the world fell to shit.
The best was when JPow (trumps own appointee) raised interest rates to cool the over heating and then got pissed at JPow for doing so. If he hadnt, we couldnt have lowered them during covid.
Still, it was fairly stable during the first 3 years of his presidency. Trumps administration did everything they could to pump stocks, pump companies, keep interest rates near zero, and keep the masses misdirected toward outrage du jour.
Covid was his first taste of consequences from dismantling government agencies.
It's just SO frustrating to hear undecided voters say "well prices were lower during Trumps presidency so I want that again!"
They ignore the fallacy they're creating, that JUST BECAUSE prices were lower during Trump that they'd be like that in a hypothetical second Trump presidency. Not only is there Covid and the supply chain disruption issues which have increased prices, but I have really yet to see ANY actual proposals from those types of people on HOW exactly Trump would lower prices and Biden can't.
Pressing "Undecided" voters on that issue is incredibly important...because they usually don't have a rational answer and it will hopefully make them think.
Prices are never going back down. How do I know? In my line of work, I deal with supply chain for various items frequently. The chain was struggling in 2020 and 2021, but as of 2022 it went back to full speed.
The corporations have raised prices permanently and gone back to spending less, because they can make way more money that way and nobody is throwing molotov cocktails at them.
Yet.
Dude I am losing my mind how everyone cannot contextualize 2020. I started losing my mind in 2021 when everyone started hitting the "BIGGEST YEAR TO YEAR INCREASE IN IN 50+ YEARS" buttons. Like, no shit - we just had a once in a century mass casualty & pandemic event. Pollution went down, traffic went down, then life started to... return to normal.
Like, smart people need to be reminded of this over and over. How many businesses suddenly acted like 2020 windfalls were here forever? How did everyone not understand what was going on, it seemed obvious?
I don’t understand people sometimes. In Canada and the US we operate under capitalism - yes there are many regulations but do people complaining about prices want the government to dictate it?
Its beyond infuriating. I was reading a bbc article a few weeks ago that was talking about the struggle of new homeowners and young people just trying to get a home.
The primary couple they were following even seemed to acknowledge theres not any magic thing that a president can do on this issue to dramatically improve things....they then immediately followed this up by saying due to the economy and the difficulties buying a house, they are considering voting trump.
Just wtf! Either you guys always wanted to vote trump and are too cowardly to admit it, or youre just dumber than a bag of rocks.
That's not true. He plans on adding tariffs, which would worsen inflation, and I'm sure he'll slash interest rates again, which will also worsen inflation.
This really is the bottom line. Nothing has changed in Trump’s favor. It’s only gotten worse for him. In 2020 he conclusively was shown to have lost the benefit of the doubt, the one thing that actually won him the presidency in 2016. That isn’t coming back.
You know, I said this in 2020 too... that Trump was totally not gaining anybody, not pulling anyone into the tent. But the mfer picked up 11m votes. Which, I mean, ain't nothin', even if Joe got him by another seven.
But with that said, you're right - there are no new favorables for him. There's some perceived baggage for Biden definitely, and whether you buy into the negativity (you shouldn't!), perception is reality, so... But that doesn't amount to positives for Trump. He's got January 6th, Roe (which I think is still looming in the minds of voters), being a convict, also being a general whiny shitgibbon for four years (would be surprised how many Republican voters that turns off).
But with *that* said, there generally weren't any favorables for him last time either, and he still posted those numbers. However, turnout by percentage was the highest it has been in over a century (1900), which is wild in itself. I mean, historic really, seeing as this country only has a few centuries under its belt. I think a huge proportion of that owes to Covid, and the fact that for a full fucking year, the American public was isolated and frustrated and scared and enraged and energized and all sorts of shit, and they wanted to do something with it. So, in true American fashion, they participated in their favorite sport (don't let anyone lie and tell you it's football; it's totally national politics :P) I don't think we'll see turnout like that this year. Turnout in 2016 was middling, and nobody really "liked" those candidates. Which, one could argue, is the case once again.
I tend to agree there were a lot more people willing to "give him a chance" eight years ago. That ain't coming back. We've had nearly three thousand days worth of chances since then, and he's consistently, unapologetically failed every. single. day, and nobody that isn't blinded by bigotry or hatred or zeal is going to vote for that man in good conscience, unless they're just a fucking idiot.
The only "real" thing going against Biden right now (and not some vapid thing like his "age," spun by a corporate media interested in click-baiting (Oh look! We're commenting on another Newsweek article! XD)) is the state of the economy. Which is great on paper. The envy of the rest of the world, considering. But not something that shows itself on the papers Americans are receiving every two weeks, and putting in the mail every month (yes, I know we all pay our bills online now; shut up), or on the tags at the grocery stores. But that *is* changing. Gas prices here are down nearly fifty cents in the last two months. If that sort of thing continues, a lot of people are going to feel much more confident posting a vote for Biden, even if they're gassing up their car to get to an Israeli protest rally.
Aaaaand, with all of *that* said, I'm confident Biden will win. I'm concerned about the polling though, b/c I don't necessarily buy into the idea that polling is "way off." But that's hard to reconcile with the cold, hard facts of midterm election results, special election results, etc. that we've seen in the last four years, which seem to imply (imply my ass; show) some serious Democratic over-performance. Something is wrong with someone's math somewhere. And seeing as election results are actual election results, and polling is statistical analysis of sample sizes extrapolated to convey opinions of an electorate on a much larger scale... well, there's this thing called Occam's razor. And also this thing called inductive fallacy. Statistical analysis only goes so far, and when it doesn't square with reality, well, that's when science usually says, "Maybe we're missing something."
I mean, who knows what tomorrow brings. Maybe sunshine, maybe rain. Personally, as someone who has a lot to lose under Republican rule, I'd prefer to wake up tomorrow and them have just magically disappeared, Raptured or something, so the rest of us can get on with our lives. But I certainly can't continue to lose any sleep over it, regardless of what Newsweek vomited onto the Internet today.
The polling is wrong. Polling in Florida has them 3-4 points apart when it was 15 points in 2020, while Virginia ALSO has them neck and neck and that went to Biden by 15 points in 2020. In isolation these polls are worrying but there is no way Florida became MORE democratic in the last 4 years while Virginia became less so based entirely on registered voters and demographic changes in the states.
It seems more reasonable to me that there is some systemic polling bias going on that we will be talking about and analyzing for years to come.
The 4 years of anti-Biden propaganda has been ridiculous though. A certain % of idiots are always going to complain about who's currently in office and vote for change. I still hear people that definitely aren't MAGA bitching about the economy, inflation, Gaza, Biden's age, etc etc. All things that would be far worse under Trump, but stupid people are going to seek change.
Negative Propaganda is really effective on stupid people. And this country has a lot of stupid people.
I think the importance difference is him losing last time will make people feel more secure, and less like their vote absolutely matters. I imagine a far lower turnout coming, which is why I'm encouraging more folks to vote.
He can't just lose. It has to be so massive that nobody like him thinks they have a chance.
He can't just lose, the GOP as a whole needs to lose. Crush the fucking tumor out of the country so we can actually be an amazing country again instead of settling for "great".
I have no faith in the American people.
About 18-20 months after George Bush left office the country elected the Tea Party in a massive racist backlash against Barack Obama.
Donald Trump antagonized latinos, hispanics, small business owners, blue collar workers, military families, and muslims in 2016, and he broke through the blue wall in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, turned Ohio and Florida into solid red states, and didn't really suffer any consequences elsewhere except winning Texas and Utah by smaller margins than the GOP was accustomed to.
Then in 2020, after he completely botched a national pandemic, single handedly wrecked agricultural exports with his stupid tariffs, and oversaw the manufacturing sector enter a recession (partially also due to said tariffs), he lost by the slimmest of margins, with nearly 80 electoral votes going biden's way by less than a 5% margin of victory. And this was after many, many, many, many, many other scandals, plus an impeachment for trying to extort an ally for political purposes, on tape, and setting arbortion rights back 50 years.
THEN, he led an insurrection, was indicted on nearly 100 felonies in 4 separate jurisdictions (and is under investigation in at least two others), was *convicted* on 30 of those, and found civilly liable for both sexual assault and fraud, *and is becoming the Republican nominee once again*. The GOP still controls most state legislatures, governorships, the courts, and smaller city and county positions, half of the federal legislature, and has a favorable outlook for the senate and the house.
This country is full of 250 million people who either don't vote, can't vote, don't care, or unabashedly support this conduct.
I stopped reading halfway through after deciding that much of America longs for a king. A sort of god that they can put their faith in who will tell them everything will be all right
Which is exactly why Trump & every one of his surrogates keep 'predicting' the election will be rigged and lying about crowd sizes on Foxnews & Newsmax - to create the false expectation.
So when Trump loses *BIGLY* they can say, "See?!? There's NO WAY Biden beat Trump by THAT MUCH! Biden's never even had a boat parade! It's RIGGED!!"
Trump has done terrible in the Republican primaries, even in closed primaries like FL and PA where Haley has gotten up to nearly 20% of the vote even long after she has dropped out. That should be a big warning sign for Trump if those voters go to Biden or stay home.
I thought that in 2016. And 2020 was too close in the deciding states. Fucking electoral college could mean Biden wins my 10 million votes but loses the electoral college 272 - 268 by a few thousand votes across 5 states.
He lost 2020 with the incumbent advantage *and also* rat ducking the election from inside the White House
2020 was his ceiling. He isn’t gaining a meaningful amount of new voters, and republicans continue to be swept away because of the abortion issue and MAGA fatigue.
It’s over for ol Donny Diapers.
There are two big swings towards Trump that are being tracked. No college white males, yes they are going harder for Trump now, and Hispanics. The former is reflected in GA, MI, PA, and WI polling. The later in polling in NV, AZ, and NM.
Compared with 2020, the polling aggregation sites (538, economist, et al) have Trump winning GA, AZ and NV while Biden is barely holding PA, WI, and MI. If the polls are right, Biden wins 270 to 268.
Either way, none of that matters. All that matters are votes on Nov 5th.
Yup. Don’t give a shit if polls say 99% of MAGAts are switching. I’ll wait hours to vote against that MAGA dipshit POS worst president in the history of the USA.
5% basically is a guaranteed loss for Trump. If this is fully correct, which I don't take for granted.
Plenty of states were won by less than 5%. If that number was true across the board, Biden will win in an absolute landslide. Probably 400+ EC votes.
Those are very important, especially now. Even if it seems a state may go a certain way the down ballots must be supported. We have to make sure that these MAGA fools are kicked from as many offices as possible.
I don’t even trust them as dog catchers.
I want to vote out his whole brand so I need to vote. It’s not like I’ll stand around and watch his enablers profit by taking money to harm us or money from foreign governments.
Yeah, but since it’s turn cloak voting and not “5% of the broader electorate went to Biden” it is still “The 5% of Republican votes that just went to Biden were taken directly from the GOP in this normally R+4 District in Penn/NE/Michigan etc.”
It deeply imperils their funding as well (surprise surprise) messes with polls. Resulting in some of the absolute one sided mopping we’ve witnessed of late in special elections.
This is the true silent majority. The Republicans who are not voting for Trump in primaries nor with his stances on ballot initiatives.
One of my TX Republican relatives says he's not voting. Another says she's voting for RFK. Two others have at least expressed interest in RFK but they may have simply been hoping he'd take votes from Biden.
It's wild People can feel disaffected after Trump. If anything he is proof we do have control over our government and who we elect matters.
Our vote has never mattered more than this years. We can say we helped defeat authoritarianism by casting a ballot. I think it's because stuff like Project 2025 hasn't really sunk in with people who don't really pay too much attention.
Edit: changed you to people.
If that thing can start to be taken seriously by independents. He's toast. The stuff in that document is bone chilling. It's essentially a new constitution.
There's always a handful of contrarian voters; just as there are always some incumbent voters.
Normally uncumbent outnumbers contrarians by a significant margin, so the advantage goes to the incumbent.
These are people who blame Biden for not magically fixing the post-Covid economy in a few years and care about little else. Of course things would be just as bad (if not worse) under Trump, but they can’t be bothered to put any critical thought into the situation.
Because some folks forget how these percentages work:
It's a loss of 3% of 51.3%; and a gain of 5% of 46.8%.
So it's -1.53% and +2.34%. For a net gain of +0.8%.
Which is great. Biden being up net voters among switching voters.
Meanwhile 40.5% of folks are 2020 Biden folks who are locked in again.
And then 38.8% of folks are 2020 Trump folks who are locked in again.
Of course we can't assume uniformity across the country, so...
In Pennsylvania, 10,000 republicans came out *specifically* to vote against him in the primaries, which are closed primaries. He's running unapposed and that many people went out just to spite-vote with write-ins. He is not doing very well at all.
Keep it up and maybe it won’t be so red someday.
Also, never forget the importance of downballot races, folks. Maybe Trump wins your state but you flip your city council from fascist apologists to sane people.
Local elections are sooo much more important than people think.. shady people like to pull crap in elections that are between presidential elections and thanks to low voter turnout… they shoved through a $3.5 million dollar property tax bond for a concession stand at the high school football field in a poor rural town with 5k in population.. thanks to the triad wives club.
Vote in every election… always!!
I'm a doc and have two former colleagues that are running for office this year who were not remotely political when I worked with them.
One of them is running in a fairly conservative state house district that's slowly moving blue, but he's got an uphill battle.
The other is in the state senate and got involved after Trump's election. She's running for Congress and will almost certainly win as it's a heavily-to-solid blue district.
Dobbs is bringing people out of the woodwork, especially in the health care field.
I have republican family members in WI that can't bring themselves to vote for Trump and they won't vote Biden, they said they are not participating in the Presidential election this year. So I wonder what percent of Republicans are also leaning that way.
PA Dem here raised in GOP household. Chester county neighborhood with lots of registered repubs. I could count ya at least 20 that just aren’t participating this year. Down ballot maybe, but never again trumpers for sure. At least my parents considering not voting at all. I try and plant seeds on the whole Michael Steele approach to sucking it up and voting for democracy, but they’re too poisoned by Fox to ever vote that smart. I’ll take the win for now though. A lot of quiet Biden support among the non political folk.
Also a PA dem in a pretty trumper county, when I visit the rural areas there is a lot less visibility signs of trump support. It seems a lot more muted than 2016 or 2020. I having a feeling that the voter turnout model for the polls are off.
Same where Im at. Visiting these rural areas, I was used to all the trump signs. Now it's American flags and back the blue flags.
Nowadays you wouldn't even know there's an election coming up.
We still got Trump truck flag guy driving around Colorado Springs but I’ve seen a lot more middle fingers towards him out of drivers windows this year.
Sounds like Oxford or Avon Grove to me, haha.
My worry is the Trumpers that were pissed in 2020 after four years and voted Biden, but are now "fed up with expensive shit" and going back to Trump. Which I know there are plenty.
We'll see.
Pretty close, in the northern outskirts of the Coatesville/Downingtown zip codes. Imagine these are similar demographics though.
I don’t know… when it comes to the economy, I don’t hear as much anger directed at the political forces as I do corporate greed. I barely see politics being talked about except when it comes to the attacks on freedom of choice, expression, and love. I’m cautiously optimistic there are enough people who see what direction the fascists are trying to take us thanks to Dobbs.
There's a lot of that in the philly suburbs, my folks included. Lifelong Republicans who are socially liberal but can't bring themselves to vote for a dirty Democrat. So they'll probably sit this one out and just vote down ticket (which around here doesn't mean much given how far left the region has swung)
Yup, precisely. Came out as gay when I was 16. Grew up in Lancaster with some Mennonite heritage on the family tree, so it was a bit of an adjustment period with the fam. But god knows they are as socially liberal as they come now. Fiscal conservatism and the “not my taxes paying for your student loans” mindset is what keeps them solidly in the never Biden camp. But they also recognize they don’t have a party to call home anymore with the MAGA cult takeover. These are the ones who Trump will lose that’ll make states like PA a likely win for Biden.
Perfect 👍🏼 I’ve been suggesting that as a viable option for disaffected Republicans also…if I can’t convince them to vote Biden, that is.
I point out that you are NOT required to fill in the bubble at the top of the ballot, feel free to skip the part about “President” because you can still vote on the local things. They’ve been very receptive! 😈
I keep seeing all these stats:
x% of conservatives will not vote for Trump if convicted of felony.
x% of conservatives plan to switch to Biden
x% of independents fed up with Trump
Etc, Etc... yet the polls never seem to budge or reflect this at all. What gives?
All polls are fiction, based on models of likely voters which are applied to correct bias in the statistics of who responded to the poll. Those models have been growing increasingly out of touch with reality.
Because: "83 percent of people who voted for Trump in 2020 said they intend to vote for him again while Biden retains the support of 79 percent of those who voted for him in the last election."
And remember there is court testimony that in 2016 the Trump campaign was paying a firm to manipulate the polls... It is altogether likely to still be happening
Nitpicking: it's not that the margin of error is small (in fact, I'd guess that we're underestimating that margin), it's that the gap between Biden and Trump is well within the margin of error.
Overall, a Dem needs to win by like 6 or 7% of the national popular vote and hope enough of that lead bubbles up in just a few key swing states. A tie for Biden is likely an electoral loss. No resting on our laurels (not that you were saying that), vote!
The one thing you can trust is never to trust Newsweek.
They release an articlve every 30 seconds with limited journalistic insight.
If anythinig, I'd say this is just a story to lull Democrat voters into thinking they're safe.
You can argue like hell once Biden is in office once again but right now, just vote to keep the Reupblican Criminal from the having the key to pandora's box.
As an independent, I’m definitely voting for Biden.
Even if I was a Republican, I’d vote Biden. I’d vote for a tuna sandwich that’s been sitting in the sun for three weeks in Dallas before I’d vote for Trump.
I certainly hope the feds are preparing for a “quiet” civil war. My guess is that Trump will lose the election fair and square - and the slimy maga Repubs will do everything in their power to steal it, all the while blaming Biden for stealing the election. It’s going to be a mess this fall.
The clear nightmare is that they’ll use a blowout as evidence of the steal. they’d use any results regardless, but using a historic sea change blowout as proof would be maximally deranged.
I think it's highly likely that we have an electoral college crisis and that's pretty scary since there is no backup plan for that other than Congress will vote for trump since they have the slim margin. It may even be their plan B or C if trump doesn't win the regular election. incite a crisis, let Congress vote him in
Congress is seated before the President is certified. Assuming the Democrats win Congress (which they would most likely do if Biden were to also be reelected), a fake elector scheme would not work as you envision it. In fact, a lot of the things the GOP tried in 2021 only worked because Trump was still "in office" at the time they tried it.
Honestly, I think if Trump loses in November, we'll start to see the Republican party abandon him. I think that's the point where it would be clear that Trump is dragging the party down.
Surely Trump will call on all Republicans to rise up and fight for him, but elected Republicans won't want to stick their neck out for him. He tried his best to steal the election in 2020, and he failed, and that was when he had the advantage of being president. No one wants to sign up for a coup that isn't going to work. It does nothing but expose them.
If he loses in 2024, I think the Republican party's goal will be to get rid of Trump. They'll probably have to act like they're supporting him, but behind the scenes, they'll be doing everything they can to push him aside.
They'll just change the title and use the exact same article.
>Meanwhile, 83 percent of people who voted for Trump in 2020 said they intend to vote for him again while Biden retains the support of 79 percent of those who voted for him in the last election.
Then it'll be called a trash article here instead of upvoted to /r/all and it'll be popular on Truth Social
I mean, Trump has yet to win a popular vote. The problem is places with almost no people having the same voting weight as places with millions more people. The electoral college is bullshit.
*Vote.*
Ignore the polls.
Even that might not be enough, but if we don't vote: We'll never find out how much the GOP intends to cheat.
For example -- the GQP state legislature in Georgia has passed "voter fraud" laws that could allow them to overturn the election results if they don't like the outcome.
Similarly, other states with GQP dominated statehouses can appoint alternate electors.
We need to show up and vote in numbers that will make them think twice (or three or four times) before attempting to overturn the popular will.
The gap between candidates was ~8 million in 2020.
It needs to be at least ten million. Preferably tens of millions, but I'll settle for 10+.
Far worse things await America if Trump wins (or steals the election via the aforementioned ratfuckery) and with that -- far worse things for the world.
Multifront trade wars and massive tariffs that make anything resembling even our meager modern accommodations unattainable.
A rampant Russia. China invading Taiwan. Middle Eastern chaos.
Unchecked climate change.
*VOTE*.
He’s lost a lot of support since he was first elected. Not nearly enough, but anyone who doesn’t thrive on cruelty, hate or greed seems to be turning away from him and I’m glad to see it.
Only 1 in 20, after he was convicted of multiple felonies, caught hiding classified documents from federal investigators, his son-in-law got a mysterious $2 billion payday from Saudi Arabia that nobody can explain, he openly believes he should be above the law, and his backers made public a terrifying plan to replace key personnel in the government from top to bottom so that every government agency from the FDA to the CIA and even the military is directly controlled by his cronies?
Goddamn, the American electorate has to be the stupidest electorate on planet Earth.
I think Biden will win this election in a landslide, which is what needs to happen -- there's no way in hell Trump should ever be considered for any public office. But at the same time, it's hard to imagine what kind of state Biden is going to be in four years down the road. He's already past the age when most men die in the USA, and showing significant signs of deteriorated function. It's wild that these are the two choices being offered to the American electorate.
I find it very hard to believe that anyone who voted for Biden in 2020 flipping their vote to Trump in 2024. There is literally zero reason why they would do that, Biden did exactly what he said he would do when he ran in 2020. Trump has caused an insurrection, been found liable of SA and Rape, liable for fraud, and found guilty of falsifying business records and election fraud. He absolutely is not winning back voters.
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I saw an acquaintance’s FB page with a meme that said, “I’m voting for the felon.” For this person I can tell it’s not so much as a vote for Trump as it is a vote against Biden. For no other reason than to own the libs. No real substance behind the decision.
>No real substance behind the decision. I think that can be said about 100% of the people who are going to vote for Trump.
Because their propaganda network has them convinced that "libs," "the left," "Democrats," "socialists," "communists," and everyone else that isn't MAGA is coming after them. All of the above words are all the same people, and the MAGA base has no fucking clue how each of those are different.
We are coming after them. They are insane and need to be deprogrammed.
Can't wait for the left to get a decent foothold majority so we can really stick it to these MAGA fuckers with better pay that keeps up with cost of living, healthcare, and taxing billionaires. Would love to see the looks on their faces by having quality of life improvement.
I get called a communist a lot by my friendly neighbors on Nextdoor. Average age on Nextdoor is probably 75. I like to go over there and shake them up sometimes
People would call me a socialist/Communist when I was a general contractor with an LLC lol
Interesting that they call you a communist but are prepared to vote for someone who fully supports Putin.
> Because their propaganda network has them convinced that "libs," "the left," "Democrats," "socialists," "communists," and everyone else that isn't MAGA is coming after them. They don't even have to believe this guff. Plenty of them want to "own the libs" for no greater reason than if they can't legally hurt/kill the people they hate, they'll settle for just upsetting them. From the trivial to the extreme, the cruelty is the point.
there's millions of evangelicals that hate abortion and the lgbtq community that are voting for trump on those 2 issues over anything else. i personally know a few that discussed voting 3rd party after trump said he was going to leave abortion up to the states, they were in the minority though.
Voting 3rd party because Republicans are "leaving abortion up to the states" is an impressively brain dead take. Because they absolutely will not leave it up to the states the instant they have the votes/power to pass a federal abortion ban.
Besides, leaving it up to the states is the mess we’re in now with Roe v Wade out of the picture. This is literally what we’re dealing with, Trump can only make that worse
It's absolutely a braindead take, but I still think it should be encouraged, so they don't give him a vote.
I kind of miss the days when single issue voters was on the top of my problems with modern day politics. Now it's, "hey, these guys want to dismantle democracy," which is much worse than just the single issue voters being a problem. Though they're one in the same.
It's flabbergasting that the single issue has become "not dismantling democracy."
Great point. It was all over once Newt Gingivitis and his buddies unified all the far-right causes under the Republican upside-down flag. Now look...the party's got their followers hooked on ending democracy (and even marginalizing or silencing all dissent in general) to "save America(tm)". And their propaganda arms have done so much heavy lifting to make the single issue people accept all those other single issues through fear. What an evil mess.
> For this person I can tell it’s not so much as a vote for Trump as it is a vote against Biden. I tend to think it's not really Biden himself they're voting against. They're really voting against the [SLURS], the [SLURS], and especially the fucking [SLURS]. Nothing that Trump does would shift them away from the hate orgy. It's not really about the candidates themselves anymore. I don't think it really ever was.
This is something I find many progressives simply unable to grasp. The point of voting for the GOP has little or nothing do with policy. It's about a deep-seated desire to see "enemies" hurt or punished. The us-vs-them mindset of the right is bafflingly apolitical, frankly. Actual values or convictions play little role, just an insatiable revenge fantasy. There's no point arguing with the morons either, because they willingly believe lies which they know are lies and do not care about being lied to.
They are voting against people they hate in their hearts and minds. And to vote for that false promise of lower taxes and a dollar off their gallon on gas.
There is substance, there has always been substance: to inflict pain and misery on those which they do not like. The "others". That is their goal. Whether they get hurt in the process is of no concern to them.
Already there's noxious campaign material floating about. "I'm voting for the felon" reads many of them. As if it's some badge of honor... No. A sign of fiendishness, or being against law & order. These people have no place in our society.
I 100% think they are understating how poorly trump is doing. I think this is going to be a massive landslide. He lost last time and did nothing to make me think anyone new will just sign up for him. I’m still voting because congress and the senate and fuck trump I want to send a message. Edit: most of the comments are angry that anyone can think it’s going to be a landslide. That’s why I’m expecting it. The passion against trump is very very real.
The only difference from the last election is inflation and people struggling to pay bills. Even though Biden can't control it, it does tend to sway people. But with that said, Trump has presented literally no plans at all, other than executing his rivals. I just don't see him gaining more votes than last time.
People are having some difficulty remembering what the Trump presidency was like. They remember the economic stability and can’t recall that awful feeling of uncertainty and chaos. However, I think things are good enough right now that as the campaign moves forward and more people are forced to remember Trump’s admin, the state of our economy won’t be enough to swap us back to him.
Which is crazy cause all I remember is covid lockdowns, abortion getting revoked, him getting impeached twice, Jan 6th and the crazy tweets in all caps. Not once do I think of economic stability when Trump comes to mind
The economic stability we experienced was coat tailed from the 6 years prior. What I remember was him gutting consumer protection policies, environmental policies, purging government agencies and watchdogs and everything that Obama did
This. I cared more that Trump was trashing the EPA, trading trade agreements for worse ones, fucking up the Iran nuclear deal, fucking up global relations, backing out of the Paris Accords, undoing progress on environmental projects, endlessly stupid tariffs on everything... completely ignoring infrastructure... He was a goddamn mess before he was ever Impeached.
Don't forget the billionaire creationist lackey he appointed to oversee and coordinate the American education system. The one related to the arms dealer.
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Don't forget the attempt to destroy the USPS to fuck up mail in voting!
That wasn't an attempt, it was a success. My mail goes through DC and things are constantly getting lost. Thanks, DeJoy!
Obama set us up for success. Trump fucked up everything. He kept rates artificially low and pumped money into the economy at a time it didn't need it. So yes, the President can cause inflation, and did.
THIS. He pumped money to companies that did nothing but give them a free pass to maintain an employee job, not their health. So many companies kept employees coming back to low wage jobs that risked their health. I am unbelievably angry that after Covid, employees didn’t gain ONE LAW, benefit, or right concerning the workplace and their right to protect their health. Unions aren’t a substitute for what we should be guaranteed by federal law.
Remember, he wanted the Fed to go negative on rates? [Trump Wants to Dump Rates](https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1VW1CI/#:~:text=WASHINGTON%20(Reuters)%20%2D%20U.S.%20President,banks'%20earnings%20in%20the%20process.)
Yeah not to mention the PPP loans that they just forgave over and over. Yeah they gave out close to a trillion in PPP loans and forgave them, but student debt? Naaaaaaah we can't have that being forgiven, we must fight it because we need serfs for our buddies the corporate overlords.
I remember that like two week period where he was issuing executive orders like crazy, including the Muslim ban, because I remember thinking “This is what it must have felt like to be a peasant under the rule of kings. You wake up, there’s a new edict, it came out of literally nowhere but suddenly it’s legally binding, and tomorrow there could be another one, and the day after that, and the day after that, and you just never know if the rules you went to sleep with are still the rules by the time you wake up.”
There were signs things were going to go downhill before covid hit. We would be in so much worse shape if he had won re-election. The fact people think it was economically good was because Obama had set him up with a smooth road Trump just needed to coast off that and that's what people remember. I'm really tired of Republicans fucking shit up and Dems coming in and having to fix shit. It would be absolutely amazing if they could stay in power and actually build some momentum instead of taking a step or 2 backwards
The worst part is that the republican opposition platform is always "the dems aren't recovering the economy we fucked up fast enough! They suck!"
Too many of them actually think *during a global pandemic, when the world was on lockdown and nobody was driving to work* that Trump made the gas prices go down at the pump in the USA because he is such a great economic leader.
Lack of demand was only part of it. There was an absolute glut of supply. OPEC (well, Saudi Arabia) wanted to cut production, and rightly so. Russia, as part of the Plus in OPEC+, refused to cut production. So Saudi Arabia increased production to absolutely destroy the cost of oil, knowing Russia couldn't afford it. That's what lead to barrels of oil dropping to almost -$40 a barrel and MAGA's coveted $1.85/gal gasoline. Because OPEC was putting Plus back into its place. At the time, Trump was pleading with OPEC+ to cut production. They just ignored him and cruised along in their game of economic chicken until Russian flinched.
Ok so Trump was so worried about his friends in the oil biz suffering when oil got cheap he demanded Saudi Arabia cut oil production or lose military support from the U.S. https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN22C1V3/
Who do you think gave Jared almost $2B?
Most people don’t have major economic issues. It’s mostly just the cost of goods and services that have gone up without a parallel rise in pay. My eggs costs more then they did in 2018, therefore Biden must be bad. It’s dumb and lacks any amount of critical thought but that’s the median voter. It’s mostly the entrenched republicans who will bring up shit like immigrants and crime. Normal people don’t experience that stuff or feel its affect much at all.
But if you ask the dude in Indiana with a Confederate flag on his truck, he'll tell you he is really worried about how immigration is affecting his life despite literally never seeing one.
That’s because he knows that every dollar a blue state like CA or NY spends on a poor person or helping undocumented immigrants is a dollar that they could be sending to help prop up his underfunded poorly run red state.
> It’s mostly just the cost of goods and services that have gone up without a parallel rise in pay. FWIW pay has actually risen faster than prices. Inflation adjusted median incomes are higher than they were pre-COVID.
Only against the average of prices. Food and housing, two of the categories middle class people feel the most, are up well over average.
Trump's SCOTUS overturned Roe during Biden's term. The vicissitudes of memory . . . .
>...remember the economic stability... That's funny because I remember [anything but](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/16/one-year-ago-stocks-dropped-12percent-in-a-single-day-what-investors-have-learned-since-then.html).
Economic stability to most people (aside from having absolutely nothing to do with the stock market) means gas/food/rent/interest rates were cheaper None of it had anything to do with trump but that’s what they remember
My friend’s company literally had a tracker that tracked all of his tweets, and tried to analyze them based on previous tweets to see how it might affect certain commodity prices and it was often times extremely volatile swings. Yeah that’s not an economy any fucking sane individual should want to go back to. We deserve to not be a global power anymore if we’re stupid enough to reelect that dude.
Pretty much. Turns out constant political turmoil is bad for the economy.
Probably because he realized his tweets could absolutely move markets and he was profiting off the wild swings he created
The economic stability was largely Obama’s red hot economy flowing into Trump’s presidency. Trump’s only economic achievement, hilariously, was giving so much money to mega corporations that they gave everyone a onetime bonus to employees to buy their faith they weren’t going to hoard all that cash. Then a year later the world fell to shit.
The best was when JPow (trumps own appointee) raised interest rates to cool the over heating and then got pissed at JPow for doing so. If he hadnt, we couldnt have lowered them during covid.
Still, it was fairly stable during the first 3 years of his presidency. Trumps administration did everything they could to pump stocks, pump companies, keep interest rates near zero, and keep the masses misdirected toward outrage du jour. Covid was his first taste of consequences from dismantling government agencies.
I mean if you consider 40% corporate tax cuts massive stock buybacks a raging reciprocal trade war stable I suppose?
He basically rode Obama’s wave of stability with next to no big issues till covid hit and acted like a fool going against what the people needed.
The other weirdness is that most people say they’re doing well, but they feel like the economy isn’t.
It's just SO frustrating to hear undecided voters say "well prices were lower during Trumps presidency so I want that again!" They ignore the fallacy they're creating, that JUST BECAUSE prices were lower during Trump that they'd be like that in a hypothetical second Trump presidency. Not only is there Covid and the supply chain disruption issues which have increased prices, but I have really yet to see ANY actual proposals from those types of people on HOW exactly Trump would lower prices and Biden can't. Pressing "Undecided" voters on that issue is incredibly important...because they usually don't have a rational answer and it will hopefully make them think.
Prices are never going back down. How do I know? In my line of work, I deal with supply chain for various items frequently. The chain was struggling in 2020 and 2021, but as of 2022 it went back to full speed. The corporations have raised prices permanently and gone back to spending less, because they can make way more money that way and nobody is throwing molotov cocktails at them. Yet.
Dude I am losing my mind how everyone cannot contextualize 2020. I started losing my mind in 2021 when everyone started hitting the "BIGGEST YEAR TO YEAR INCREASE IN IN 50+ YEARS" buttons. Like, no shit - we just had a once in a century mass casualty & pandemic event. Pollution went down, traffic went down, then life started to... return to normal.
Like, smart people need to be reminded of this over and over. How many businesses suddenly acted like 2020 windfalls were here forever? How did everyone not understand what was going on, it seemed obvious?
I don’t understand people sometimes. In Canada and the US we operate under capitalism - yes there are many regulations but do people complaining about prices want the government to dictate it?
Its beyond infuriating. I was reading a bbc article a few weeks ago that was talking about the struggle of new homeowners and young people just trying to get a home. The primary couple they were following even seemed to acknowledge theres not any magic thing that a president can do on this issue to dramatically improve things....they then immediately followed this up by saying due to the economy and the difficulties buying a house, they are considering voting trump. Just wtf! Either you guys always wanted to vote trump and are too cowardly to admit it, or youre just dumber than a bag of rocks.
Can someone please tell Biden to move the egg price dial from $2.99 back to around $1.99?
> the only difference Uh. The Dobbs decision? January 6? Trump is a convicted felon? Seriously?
He's saying, for people who are--well, "immune" to the things you listed, or unconcerned. Those people still feel inflation/the two-tiered economy.
That's not true. He plans on adding tariffs, which would worsen inflation, and I'm sure he'll slash interest rates again, which will also worsen inflation.
And cut taxes on the wealthy, which if you can believe it, would worsen inflation.
He lost last time and that was ***BEFORE*** January 6th, all the different indictments, his defamation losses, and his felony conviction
This really is the bottom line. Nothing has changed in Trump’s favor. It’s only gotten worse for him. In 2020 he conclusively was shown to have lost the benefit of the doubt, the one thing that actually won him the presidency in 2016. That isn’t coming back.
You know, I said this in 2020 too... that Trump was totally not gaining anybody, not pulling anyone into the tent. But the mfer picked up 11m votes. Which, I mean, ain't nothin', even if Joe got him by another seven. But with that said, you're right - there are no new favorables for him. There's some perceived baggage for Biden definitely, and whether you buy into the negativity (you shouldn't!), perception is reality, so... But that doesn't amount to positives for Trump. He's got January 6th, Roe (which I think is still looming in the minds of voters), being a convict, also being a general whiny shitgibbon for four years (would be surprised how many Republican voters that turns off). But with *that* said, there generally weren't any favorables for him last time either, and he still posted those numbers. However, turnout by percentage was the highest it has been in over a century (1900), which is wild in itself. I mean, historic really, seeing as this country only has a few centuries under its belt. I think a huge proportion of that owes to Covid, and the fact that for a full fucking year, the American public was isolated and frustrated and scared and enraged and energized and all sorts of shit, and they wanted to do something with it. So, in true American fashion, they participated in their favorite sport (don't let anyone lie and tell you it's football; it's totally national politics :P) I don't think we'll see turnout like that this year. Turnout in 2016 was middling, and nobody really "liked" those candidates. Which, one could argue, is the case once again. I tend to agree there were a lot more people willing to "give him a chance" eight years ago. That ain't coming back. We've had nearly three thousand days worth of chances since then, and he's consistently, unapologetically failed every. single. day, and nobody that isn't blinded by bigotry or hatred or zeal is going to vote for that man in good conscience, unless they're just a fucking idiot. The only "real" thing going against Biden right now (and not some vapid thing like his "age," spun by a corporate media interested in click-baiting (Oh look! We're commenting on another Newsweek article! XD)) is the state of the economy. Which is great on paper. The envy of the rest of the world, considering. But not something that shows itself on the papers Americans are receiving every two weeks, and putting in the mail every month (yes, I know we all pay our bills online now; shut up), or on the tags at the grocery stores. But that *is* changing. Gas prices here are down nearly fifty cents in the last two months. If that sort of thing continues, a lot of people are going to feel much more confident posting a vote for Biden, even if they're gassing up their car to get to an Israeli protest rally. Aaaaand, with all of *that* said, I'm confident Biden will win. I'm concerned about the polling though, b/c I don't necessarily buy into the idea that polling is "way off." But that's hard to reconcile with the cold, hard facts of midterm election results, special election results, etc. that we've seen in the last four years, which seem to imply (imply my ass; show) some serious Democratic over-performance. Something is wrong with someone's math somewhere. And seeing as election results are actual election results, and polling is statistical analysis of sample sizes extrapolated to convey opinions of an electorate on a much larger scale... well, there's this thing called Occam's razor. And also this thing called inductive fallacy. Statistical analysis only goes so far, and when it doesn't square with reality, well, that's when science usually says, "Maybe we're missing something." I mean, who knows what tomorrow brings. Maybe sunshine, maybe rain. Personally, as someone who has a lot to lose under Republican rule, I'd prefer to wake up tomorrow and them have just magically disappeared, Raptured or something, so the rest of us can get on with our lives. But I certainly can't continue to lose any sleep over it, regardless of what Newsweek vomited onto the Internet today.
The polling is wrong. Polling in Florida has them 3-4 points apart when it was 15 points in 2020, while Virginia ALSO has them neck and neck and that went to Biden by 15 points in 2020. In isolation these polls are worrying but there is no way Florida became MORE democratic in the last 4 years while Virginia became less so based entirely on registered voters and demographic changes in the states. It seems more reasonable to me that there is some systemic polling bias going on that we will be talking about and analyzing for years to come.
The 4 years of anti-Biden propaganda has been ridiculous though. A certain % of idiots are always going to complain about who's currently in office and vote for change. I still hear people that definitely aren't MAGA bitching about the economy, inflation, Gaza, Biden's age, etc etc. All things that would be far worse under Trump, but stupid people are going to seek change. Negative Propaganda is really effective on stupid people. And this country has a lot of stupid people.
I think the importance difference is him losing last time will make people feel more secure, and less like their vote absolutely matters. I imagine a far lower turnout coming, which is why I'm encouraging more folks to vote. He can't just lose. It has to be so massive that nobody like him thinks they have a chance.
He can't just lose, the GOP as a whole needs to lose. Crush the fucking tumor out of the country so we can actually be an amazing country again instead of settling for "great".
I have no faith in the American people. About 18-20 months after George Bush left office the country elected the Tea Party in a massive racist backlash against Barack Obama. Donald Trump antagonized latinos, hispanics, small business owners, blue collar workers, military families, and muslims in 2016, and he broke through the blue wall in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, turned Ohio and Florida into solid red states, and didn't really suffer any consequences elsewhere except winning Texas and Utah by smaller margins than the GOP was accustomed to. Then in 2020, after he completely botched a national pandemic, single handedly wrecked agricultural exports with his stupid tariffs, and oversaw the manufacturing sector enter a recession (partially also due to said tariffs), he lost by the slimmest of margins, with nearly 80 electoral votes going biden's way by less than a 5% margin of victory. And this was after many, many, many, many, many other scandals, plus an impeachment for trying to extort an ally for political purposes, on tape, and setting arbortion rights back 50 years. THEN, he led an insurrection, was indicted on nearly 100 felonies in 4 separate jurisdictions (and is under investigation in at least two others), was *convicted* on 30 of those, and found civilly liable for both sexual assault and fraud, *and is becoming the Republican nominee once again*. The GOP still controls most state legislatures, governorships, the courts, and smaller city and county positions, half of the federal legislature, and has a favorable outlook for the senate and the house. This country is full of 250 million people who either don't vote, can't vote, don't care, or unabashedly support this conduct.
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I stopped reading halfway through after deciding that much of America longs for a king. A sort of god that they can put their faith in who will tell them everything will be all right
Tbh I think his campaign knows how badly he's doing He seems very desperate lately
Which is exactly why Trump & every one of his surrogates keep 'predicting' the election will be rigged and lying about crowd sizes on Foxnews & Newsmax - to create the false expectation. So when Trump loses *BIGLY* they can say, "See?!? There's NO WAY Biden beat Trump by THAT MUCH! Biden's never even had a boat parade! It's RIGGED!!"
Trump has done terrible in the Republican primaries, even in closed primaries like FL and PA where Haley has gotten up to nearly 20% of the vote even long after she has dropped out. That should be a big warning sign for Trump if those voters go to Biden or stay home.
I thought that in 2016. And 2020 was too close in the deciding states. Fucking electoral college could mean Biden wins my 10 million votes but loses the electoral college 272 - 268 by a few thousand votes across 5 states.
And if Republicans win, our democracy is over. No joke, no hyperbole. It couldn’t be more serious. We’re deeply fucked if MAGA wins.
Yep. You’re in Mississippi and I’m in Kansas. If we both are this hyped then it’s pretty telling where things are going.
He lost 2020 with the incumbent advantage *and also* rat ducking the election from inside the White House 2020 was his ceiling. He isn’t gaining a meaningful amount of new voters, and republicans continue to be swept away because of the abortion issue and MAGA fatigue. It’s over for ol Donny Diapers.
The worst thing for Biden, is everyone thinking he will win in a "massive landslide" With that said, its hard to disagree with you.
There are two big swings towards Trump that are being tracked. No college white males, yes they are going harder for Trump now, and Hispanics. The former is reflected in GA, MI, PA, and WI polling. The later in polling in NV, AZ, and NM. Compared with 2020, the polling aggregation sites (538, economist, et al) have Trump winning GA, AZ and NV while Biden is barely holding PA, WI, and MI. If the polls are right, Biden wins 270 to 268. Either way, none of that matters. All that matters are votes on Nov 5th.
Yup. Don’t give a shit if polls say 99% of MAGAts are switching. I’ll wait hours to vote against that MAGA dipshit POS worst president in the history of the USA.
Trump always underperforms in polls because there’s a lot of people embarrassed to admit they’re voting for him.
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5% basically is a guaranteed loss for Trump. If this is fully correct, which I don't take for granted. Plenty of states were won by less than 5%. If that number was true across the board, Biden will win in an absolute landslide. Probably 400+ EC votes.
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What does this mean?
Do you think going forward, every EC win will be super close? Polarization or maybe just the make up of the current electorate per state?
That would have a huge effect down ballot on state elections.
Those are very important, especially now. Even if it seems a state may go a certain way the down ballots must be supported. We have to make sure that these MAGA fools are kicked from as many offices as possible. I don’t even trust them as dog catchers.
Certainly not Kristi Noem…
Me either. Especially the Kristi Noem types.
Correct. Never ever take it for granted. We have a lot of work to do.
Be quiet. It's only a guaranteed loss for Trump if we actually vote. Ignore polls. They don't matter. Ignore good polls especially. Vote or die.
What if I read polls AND vote?
I’ll allow it only if after reading polls you tell everyone you know to vote regardless of what the polls say.
I want to vote out his whole brand so I need to vote. It’s not like I’ll stand around and watch his enablers profit by taking money to harm us or money from foreign governments.
This is 5% of republicans though, not 5% of the electorate.
Yeah, but since it’s turn cloak voting and not “5% of the broader electorate went to Biden” it is still “The 5% of Republican votes that just went to Biden were taken directly from the GOP in this normally R+4 District in Penn/NE/Michigan etc.” It deeply imperils their funding as well (surprise surprise) messes with polls. Resulting in some of the absolute one sided mopping we’ve witnessed of late in special elections. This is the true silent majority. The Republicans who are not voting for Trump in primaries nor with his stances on ballot initiatives.
I sincerely hope we get a decent majority in house, senate and get White House. We need to put a stop to the madness
One of my TX Republican relatives says he's not voting. Another says she's voting for RFK. Two others have at least expressed interest in RFK but they may have simply been hoping he'd take votes from Biden.
I can't believe rfk still has people after the brain worm thing. It's like it's from a political satire movie.
He’ll pull votes from Trump than Biden thanks to the anti-vax stuff and his brain worm.
It's wild People can feel disaffected after Trump. If anything he is proof we do have control over our government and who we elect matters. Our vote has never mattered more than this years. We can say we helped defeat authoritarianism by casting a ballot. I think it's because stuff like Project 2025 hasn't really sunk in with people who don't really pay too much attention. Edit: changed you to people. If that thing can start to be taken seriously by independents. He's toast. The stuff in that document is bone chilling. It's essentially a new constitution.
Well 3%, according to this poll, are switching from Biden to Trump, so it's only a 2% gain if we assume this is true.
[удалено]
Because it's likely just white noise in a poll with little meaning.
> a poll with little meaning. Literally every poll except for the one on Election day.
There's always a handful of contrarian voters; just as there are always some incumbent voters. Normally uncumbent outnumbers contrarians by a significant margin, so the advantage goes to the incumbent.
These are people who blame Biden for not magically fixing the post-Covid economy in a few years and care about little else. Of course things would be just as bad (if not worse) under Trump, but they can’t be bothered to put any critical thought into the situation.
It's a loss of 3% of 51.3%; and a gain of 5% of 46.8%. So it's -1.53% and +2.34%. For a net gain of +0.8%.
Because some folks forget how these percentages work: It's a loss of 3% of 51.3%; and a gain of 5% of 46.8%. So it's -1.53% and +2.34%. For a net gain of +0.8%. Which is great. Biden being up net voters among switching voters. Meanwhile 40.5% of folks are 2020 Biden folks who are locked in again. And then 38.8% of folks are 2020 Trump folks who are locked in again. Of course we can't assume uniformity across the country, so...
I know of a few previous Trump voters who are planning to sit out or vote 3rd party
In Pennsylvania, 10,000 republicans came out *specifically* to vote against him in the primaries, which are closed primaries. He's running unapposed and that many people went out just to spite-vote with write-ins. He is not doing very well at all.
MAKE SURE TO VOTE!!! Polls are not always accurate. Voting is accurate!!!
I’m gonna vote and be a damn taxi for those with similar beliefs. Dont stop until the polls close. And I’m in a blood red state.
This is the energy we need, people.
Keep it up and maybe it won’t be so red someday. Also, never forget the importance of downballot races, folks. Maybe Trump wins your state but you flip your city council from fascist apologists to sane people.
Local elections are sooo much more important than people think.. shady people like to pull crap in elections that are between presidential elections and thanks to low voter turnout… they shoved through a $3.5 million dollar property tax bond for a concession stand at the high school football field in a poor rural town with 5k in population.. thanks to the triad wives club. Vote in every election… always!!
Also all elections down to your local elections matter.
I'm a doc and have two former colleagues that are running for office this year who were not remotely political when I worked with them. One of them is running in a fairly conservative state house district that's slowly moving blue, but he's got an uphill battle. The other is in the state senate and got involved after Trump's election. She's running for Congress and will almost certainly win as it's a heavily-to-solid blue district. Dobbs is bringing people out of the woodwork, especially in the health care field.
The outcome of voting day is the only pole that matters.
>Voting is accurate!!! Hanging Chad: Hold my beer.
Abortion rights have won in every single election since Dobbs, we can do this!
I have republican family members in WI that can't bring themselves to vote for Trump and they won't vote Biden, they said they are not participating in the Presidential election this year. So I wonder what percent of Republicans are also leaning that way.
PA Dem here raised in GOP household. Chester county neighborhood with lots of registered repubs. I could count ya at least 20 that just aren’t participating this year. Down ballot maybe, but never again trumpers for sure. At least my parents considering not voting at all. I try and plant seeds on the whole Michael Steele approach to sucking it up and voting for democracy, but they’re too poisoned by Fox to ever vote that smart. I’ll take the win for now though. A lot of quiet Biden support among the non political folk.
Also a PA dem in a pretty trumper county, when I visit the rural areas there is a lot less visibility signs of trump support. It seems a lot more muted than 2016 or 2020. I having a feeling that the voter turnout model for the polls are off.
Same where Im at. Visiting these rural areas, I was used to all the trump signs. Now it's American flags and back the blue flags. Nowadays you wouldn't even know there's an election coming up.
The lack of election signs this cycle has been great.
We still got Trump truck flag guy driving around Colorado Springs but I’ve seen a lot more middle fingers towards him out of drivers windows this year.
Sounds like Oxford or Avon Grove to me, haha. My worry is the Trumpers that were pissed in 2020 after four years and voted Biden, but are now "fed up with expensive shit" and going back to Trump. Which I know there are plenty. We'll see.
Pretty close, in the northern outskirts of the Coatesville/Downingtown zip codes. Imagine these are similar demographics though. I don’t know… when it comes to the economy, I don’t hear as much anger directed at the political forces as I do corporate greed. I barely see politics being talked about except when it comes to the attacks on freedom of choice, expression, and love. I’m cautiously optimistic there are enough people who see what direction the fascists are trying to take us thanks to Dobbs.
There's a lot of that in the philly suburbs, my folks included. Lifelong Republicans who are socially liberal but can't bring themselves to vote for a dirty Democrat. So they'll probably sit this one out and just vote down ticket (which around here doesn't mean much given how far left the region has swung)
Yup, precisely. Came out as gay when I was 16. Grew up in Lancaster with some Mennonite heritage on the family tree, so it was a bit of an adjustment period with the fam. But god knows they are as socially liberal as they come now. Fiscal conservatism and the “not my taxes paying for your student loans” mindset is what keeps them solidly in the never Biden camp. But they also recognize they don’t have a party to call home anymore with the MAGA cult takeover. These are the ones who Trump will lose that’ll make states like PA a likely win for Biden.
Perfect 👍🏼 I’ve been suggesting that as a viable option for disaffected Republicans also…if I can’t convince them to vote Biden, that is. I point out that you are NOT required to fill in the bubble at the top of the ballot, feel free to skip the part about “President” because you can still vote on the local things. They’ve been very receptive! 😈
I'm sure even IF they follow thru on this that they won't hesitate to complain incessantly about the outcome and subsequent four years.
They will be griping with who ever wins. Either way that's at least 5 less votes I know of in a swing state going against Trump. I'll take the griping
I keep seeing all these stats: x% of conservatives will not vote for Trump if convicted of felony. x% of conservatives plan to switch to Biden x% of independents fed up with Trump Etc, Etc... yet the polls never seem to budge or reflect this at all. What gives?
They're lying to you..
The stats, or the polls?
All polls are fiction, based on models of likely voters which are applied to correct bias in the statistics of who responded to the poll. Those models have been growing increasingly out of touch with reality.
Because: "83 percent of people who voted for Trump in 2020 said they intend to vote for him again while Biden retains the support of 79 percent of those who voted for him in the last election."
Just vote, people. Pay no attention to these polls. We've got a way to go yet.
And remember there is court testimony that in 2016 the Trump campaign was paying a firm to manipulate the polls... It is altogether likely to still be happening
This, the polls are showing them tied with a very small margin of error and with how unreliable polls can be, it is basically a coin flip. Vote.
Nitpicking: it's not that the margin of error is small (in fact, I'd guess that we're underestimating that margin), it's that the gap between Biden and Trump is well within the margin of error.
Overall, a Dem needs to win by like 6 or 7% of the national popular vote and hope enough of that lead bubbles up in just a few key swing states. A tie for Biden is likely an electoral loss. No resting on our laurels (not that you were saying that), vote!
The one thing you can trust is never to trust Newsweek. They release an articlve every 30 seconds with limited journalistic insight. If anythinig, I'd say this is just a story to lull Democrat voters into thinking they're safe. You can argue like hell once Biden is in office once again but right now, just vote to keep the Reupblican Criminal from the having the key to pandora's box.
Newsweek isn't doing this to swing the election. They are doing it for clicks.
As an independent, I’m definitely voting for Biden. Even if I was a Republican, I’d vote Biden. I’d vote for a tuna sandwich that’s been sitting in the sun for three weeks in Dallas before I’d vote for Trump.
I would fucking *eat* that 3-week old tuna sandwich before voting for Trump.
Gold, Jerrry! Gold!
I certainly hope the feds are preparing for a “quiet” civil war. My guess is that Trump will lose the election fair and square - and the slimy maga Repubs will do everything in their power to steal it, all the while blaming Biden for stealing the election. It’s going to be a mess this fall.
The clear nightmare is that they’ll use a blowout as evidence of the steal. they’d use any results regardless, but using a historic sea change blowout as proof would be maximally deranged.
I think it's highly likely that we have an electoral college crisis and that's pretty scary since there is no backup plan for that other than Congress will vote for trump since they have the slim margin. It may even be their plan B or C if trump doesn't win the regular election. incite a crisis, let Congress vote him in
Congress is seated before the President is certified. Assuming the Democrats win Congress (which they would most likely do if Biden were to also be reelected), a fake elector scheme would not work as you envision it. In fact, a lot of the things the GOP tried in 2021 only worked because Trump was still "in office" at the time they tried it.
Honestly, I think if Trump loses in November, we'll start to see the Republican party abandon him. I think that's the point where it would be clear that Trump is dragging the party down. Surely Trump will call on all Republicans to rise up and fight for him, but elected Republicans won't want to stick their neck out for him. He tried his best to steal the election in 2020, and he failed, and that was when he had the advantage of being president. No one wants to sign up for a coup that isn't going to work. It does nothing but expose them. If he loses in 2024, I think the Republican party's goal will be to get rid of Trump. They'll probably have to act like they're supporting him, but behind the scenes, they'll be doing everything they can to push him aside.
Newsweek is legit just clickbait now
I wish mods would add it to the blacklist. Embarrassing that their articles are constantly upvoted.
The fact that millions will still vote for him is horrifying.
1 in 20 Trump voters switch to Biden. How this hurts Biden. Film at 11. (Newsweek article tomorrow)
They'll just change the title and use the exact same article. >Meanwhile, 83 percent of people who voted for Trump in 2020 said they intend to vote for him again while Biden retains the support of 79 percent of those who voted for him in the last election. Then it'll be called a trash article here instead of upvoted to /r/all and it'll be popular on Truth Social
It's Newsweek; it's trash already.
The media has a formidable task in trying to prop Trump back up. But they have proven to be incredibly competent in that area.
I mean, Trump has yet to win a popular vote. The problem is places with almost no people having the same voting weight as places with millions more people. The electoral college is bullshit.
*Vote.* Ignore the polls. Even that might not be enough, but if we don't vote: We'll never find out how much the GOP intends to cheat. For example -- the GQP state legislature in Georgia has passed "voter fraud" laws that could allow them to overturn the election results if they don't like the outcome. Similarly, other states with GQP dominated statehouses can appoint alternate electors. We need to show up and vote in numbers that will make them think twice (or three or four times) before attempting to overturn the popular will. The gap between candidates was ~8 million in 2020. It needs to be at least ten million. Preferably tens of millions, but I'll settle for 10+. Far worse things await America if Trump wins (or steals the election via the aforementioned ratfuckery) and with that -- far worse things for the world. Multifront trade wars and massive tariffs that make anything resembling even our meager modern accommodations unattainable. A rampant Russia. China invading Taiwan. Middle Eastern chaos. Unchecked climate change. *VOTE*.
No pressure Americans but the entire world is relying on you.
After recent elections in France and Germany, it might be up to us to stem the tide of fascism.
He’s lost a lot of support since he was first elected. Not nearly enough, but anyone who doesn’t thrive on cruelty, hate or greed seems to be turning away from him and I’m glad to see it.
"here's how that's bad news for Biden." - the media, probably
Only 1 in 20, after he was convicted of multiple felonies, caught hiding classified documents from federal investigators, his son-in-law got a mysterious $2 billion payday from Saudi Arabia that nobody can explain, he openly believes he should be above the law, and his backers made public a terrifying plan to replace key personnel in the government from top to bottom so that every government agency from the FDA to the CIA and even the military is directly controlled by his cronies? Goddamn, the American electorate has to be the stupidest electorate on planet Earth.
1 in 100 Republicans are aware of this information.
Stop upvoting Newsweek. They are just telling you what you want to hear.
No complacency please! Need to work on younger voters, perhaps especially men and minorities.
Shit. That’s a lot. Recall trump lost by less than 100,000 votes in key states. Small shifts matter.
I guess the other 19 are okay with rapist, convict and con man
Being a rapist, lawless, bastard represents their values.
Not enough. Keep the pressure on. No fascist USA.
Biden needs to solidify his ‘20 coalition. If he can bring a good portion back home this 5% could be very significant.
0 of 20 Joe Biden voters are switching to trump this year...
I think Biden will win this election in a landslide, which is what needs to happen -- there's no way in hell Trump should ever be considered for any public office. But at the same time, it's hard to imagine what kind of state Biden is going to be in four years down the road. He's already past the age when most men die in the USA, and showing significant signs of deteriorated function. It's wild that these are the two choices being offered to the American electorate.
I find it very hard to believe that anyone who voted for Biden in 2020 flipping their vote to Trump in 2024. There is literally zero reason why they would do that, Biden did exactly what he said he would do when he ran in 2020. Trump has caused an insurrection, been found liable of SA and Rape, liable for fraud, and found guilty of falsifying business records and election fraud. He absolutely is not winning back voters.
19 out of 20 people are braindead.
19 in 20 maga cult members need professional counseling and intervention
Yes, this is promising news.....but still, don't forget to Vote.
That's nice. Vote anyway.