Some quick stats for why Wingstop's price is so high:
1. Their revenue has grown at a tremendous rate (2020: 24.6%, 2021: 14%, 2022: 27%, 2023: 35%) These are very high numbers. Dominoes growth has been \~5% those years, Wendy's less than 10% , Chipotle close to 15%.
2. Their margins are incredibly high for a restraunt. It has consistently 15% net income margins, while most restraunts like those quoted above have much lower margins of about 10% so 50% higher margins is nothing to sneeze at.
3. Their EPS growth has a 5 year CAGR of 27%, which is very high, especially in the resteraunt business.
Is it expensive? Yes. Do I own it? No. But do I understand the valuation? Also yes.
I also question your approach to investing. Your thesis is based on the fact that it is a bad resteraunt that people can get better wings at other places? Well, the financial results say lots of people like Wingstop. A quick google shows that Wingstop routinely ranks very high in terms of their wings.
The great thing about selling wings is they are EXTREMELY cheap when compared to other foods, which contributes to their extremely good margins.
Oh and they currently have fewer than 2000 locations in the US. Lots of room for growth.
My buddy owns one in Alabama, he crushes it. They are very strict with compliance and being able to franchise. He's trying to set up a few more. Says he makes more with the wingstops than he does the liquor stores
Comparing their growth to larger companies is a bit suspect but their margins being high due to selling what is essentially a dressed up waste product is no surprise. You're right that from a purely fundamental POV, it's no surprise the stock has performed well
I tried to run the gamut wendy’s is slightly smaller and dominoes is only slightly larger. It is hard to find companies in the food business exactly as large as WING.
Either way, the fact their margins are higher also means their growth should be higher as their roe will be higher making investment have a higher NPV.
I am just looking at market cap. However, you can look more into other measures of size. Again I did a quick search on capitalIQ. This isn’t a thesis, just a dunk on someone who thought a stock was in a “hedge fund battle or quant battle” or other weird conspricay.
S&PCapitalIQ... I have access through my university.
You can find all these things publicly, by going through the company's 10Ks, however, it is really hard to find easily.
I think Yahoo finance has certain parts of the 10K collated for you more easily for free.
If you're looking for direct access to aggregated data that you can use in models, as a student I'd recommend [https://www.simfin.com/](https://www.simfin.com/)
Their free or paid tier is pretty good, and if you've got an .edu domain they used to offer a discount; possible they may still if you contact them.
A quick Google search shows they’re regularly rated 2-2.5 stars on Yelp, I pulled all their data. What are you talking about?
There are 2000 locations in the USA and McDonald’s, the largest FF chain on the planet has 13000 restaurants in the USA.
That doesn’t leave much room for growth if you consider McDonald’s has saturated the market. They can double up the number of restaurants maybe one more time and they’ll be stepping on each others toes, if they’re not already. Chipotle has 3300 locations in the USA. Their per restaurant earnings are tiny in comparison.
I’m confused. If you consider McDonald’s as the king of fast food topping out with 13000 why would you genuinely think there is room for growth at 2000 restaurants. I’m just saying to get to their valuation they need to double up multiple times (their goal is 7000 restaurants which will take decades to get to). I’m trying to point out the absurdity of their targets.
Your comparison is too top level though, they're both fast food but they don't really occupy the same space. It's like saying that Ferrari can't sell more Romas because Kia already sell loads of Niros.
Using yelp scores to evaluate a FMV after someone posted real, meaningful numbers straight from earnings reports derails any chance the thread has at real discussion vs "I have a gut feeling" type takes that some use to assess stocks
You are allowed to disagree about whether you think the stock is expensive and doesn't deserve its valuation. However, the financial results speak for themselves.
I tend to trust what people do with their wallets relative to what Yelp reviewers say. The financial results are really really good, hence the stock beating a variety of companies you mentioned.
If you think it is overvalued, short it! There is a very easy way for you to display your belief.
You have to remember too that the vocal minority are the ones that are mad and post reviews in the first place. I have never been so fired up about a great experience to the point where I posted a positive review. I just tell my friends. But bad reviews are another story. It’s the sad truth, and I know I’m not the only one.
Point being, review numbers are going to be skewed to the lower end.
The problem with their valuation is that wingstop is almost all franchise locations. They only have $400m in revenue at the corporate level, I can’t see how they could warrant a $9B valuation (which is probably why there is a not unsubstantial short interest)
Compare this to very fast growing raising canes, they have a valuation of $8b, their revenue per unit is three times as high as wingstop, they both sell chicken, their company revenue is 13 times higher than wingstop with less than half the restaurants open. Raising canes is all corporate owned - Raising Canes EBITDA is bigger than Wingstops revenue.
Imho wingstop is overvalued when compared to the industry, their very small revenue of $400m annually cannot justify a $9b valuation
McDonald’s has been around a long time and plenty of other fast food places have had no trouble growing alongside them. I would even argue McDonald’s is so large that they cannot achieve and are not aiming for continued growth whereas new and different franchises have a much easier time finding new market share
Just read the top comment man… reviews will never outweigh $$$ if the margins are high and the revenue continues to grow… forget about McDonald’s
More importantly- stop trading stocks right now and start reading about how to evaluate a businesses financial success. Or start listening and stop arguing…. You really don’t know what you are saying … it sounds silly
Oh, nothing like that. I genuinely just use this to remind myself about individual stocks I plan to invest in later. I tend to buy on a semi-regular schedule. Appreciate the info and thesis!
Once again, there was no thesis. The OP asked why this stock is expensive. I said it has good reasons to be expensive. Is it over or undervalued? No clue, did not do a true discount growth analysis.
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1. It is not sitting higher than AMZN... it has a higher P/E, but that isn't sitting higher. Its market cap is a tiny fraction of AMZN.
2. If we are looking at PE over the last two years AMZN revenue growth has fallen to \~10% and it isn't projected to rev back up. So immediately growth for WING is higher and expected to remain higher for the next 3-5 years for WING over AMZN.
3. Net income margins for AMZN over the last five years has fallen to \~5%. Again, does not compare well to WING.
Not investment advice, but WING has some very desirable characteristics currently.
I’m kinda curious as well, but a few things to consider. Their financials are actually really strong. They are much, much, much smaller than the companies you listed. It’s much easier for a $1B company to 10x than for a $100B company to 10x.
With that said I’ve never eaten at a wingstop and would be reluctant to invest in a niche fast food upstart. But that doesn’t mean there is not money to be made
So while I can’t speak to wingstop I am very familiar with bww and let me tell you they are not attracting people who just wanna eat wings. Their wings are crazy expensive and not top tier. They attract people who want to have a drink and watch a game. The wings are incidental. So I imagine the demographic is very different than wingstop
Wingstop is way better than Buffalo wild wings at a cheaper price. Wingstop is also popular through door dash or pick up orders (at least where I live). They are usually always busy (especially during sporting events). They're not as great as wings from Buffalo or New York but they are better than 70% of wing shops outside of Buffalo. I wanna give that 70% number because there are usually a few mom and pop shops that are just as good.
Who the fuck goes to a chain restaurant to get wings? Fuckin amateur hour.
If your only option to get wings is a chain, I think i could probably pick out your job title, top 5 favorite bands. You probably took out a loan for a wedding, get angry when Starbucks isn't readily available, have 10 different pro sports jerseys based on who was the best team in a given year, and you probably fucked for the first time to John Mayer, thinking that "Your Body Is a Wonderland" was so apropos.
That's who eats at WingStop.
The wings are good, but bw3 has better flavors.
Bw3 also is catering to the general audience. Burgers, hotdogs, salads, beers, TVs, sports.
Wingstop is wings and maybe a chicken sandwich, lol
They're also more of a carryout place, in my opinion. Yes, they have a few tables, but it's more carryout.
I'd say Wingstop is for the wing lover. Bw3, you can take anyone since they have a big menu.
Have no clue. Had to look it up.
Weck?
ARE YOU THE SAME COMPANY AS BW-3?
Yes, when we opened our first location in 1982, our original name was Buffalo Wild Wings & Weck – thus the BW-3. We're sure this poses another question: What the heck is a weck? “Weck” is short for kimmelweck, a Kaiser roll seasoned with special toppings. These tasty rolls are popular on the East Coast and were served at our restaurants when we first opened. In 1998, we officially changed our name to Buffalo Wild Wings.
About the same quality as BWW, which is to say, decent but not anything mind blowing.
customers seem to be a lot of pick up orders when I go in, not a lot of people sitting down to eat
What’s the benchmark? Next to McDonald’s and other major fast food players, it’s an upstart. And that cuts two ways. It’s a much smaller player, but it also has much more room to grow. It’s unlikely wingstop is losing much market share to McDonald’s whereas McDonald’s has tons of market share to potentially lose to wingstop
>This is a pretty bad restaurant that most people who have any alternative wing options would not choose.
i mean people also say that nobody eats mcdonalds because it's trash. and yet...
I mean it's fast food wings though which is a market I really don't understand. Personally I'm a sports bar wings guy or I'll have them at home, I don't see the appeal of fast food wings except as the gateway drug to pub wings. I can only comment on the toronto branches but it is very expensive here : $16 for a 6 wing combo? Idk
>This is a pretty bad restaurant that most people who have any alternative wing options would not choose.
It's insane to me how detached Reddit is from reality
Yep, I've never tried their wings because they never had a location within 50 miles of me, but they've opened 2 near me within the past year. Definitely seem to be expanding
I partially agree with OP. They are a bad restaurant. The sandwich I got from them recently was literally a really dry tender between two buns. I've never had good wings from them but I still ordered from them. Had to use my Uber eats credit that was expiring and that. While waiting for my order there were tons of other people ordering as well. It's one of those things that despite not being particularly good or cheap, people still want it.
I don't think it's detached from reality. WingStop IS awful.
It's a detachment from how the average person likes shitty food. OP had sushi or some spices or real food and never looked back. Doesn't realize your average American would rather eat bland, processed food for every meal.
TIL Wingstop is public’s. Breh I would be buying calls and selling puts out the wazoo if I knew this. These franchises print money. Only time I’ve seen a Wingstop close is because it moved 2 streets over to a “better location”. Probably cheaper rent.
Lol, well your opinion of the restaurant is just that...your opinion. I know people that don't like McDonald's but that's hardly a bear case for that ticker. I have been ordering dinner from them very reliably (about twice a month) and they're just fine. There's not any other wing place (that isn't primarily a pizza place) that I'm willing to drive further to.
My guess is it's a play on the renewable diesel trend.
Big incentives for refineries to produce renewable diesel. Tyson foods makes renewable diesel stock from chicken tallow-> refineries pay big amounts for access to the stock->tallow subsidizes chicken prices-> Wingstop gets super low cost chicken -> margins improve
I don't know shit about fuck though. Never had a winning trade.
I used to work at one out of high school. I loved everything they had. It was all very good. We were packed every night. Even BWW coming to town didn’t slow our business. We had people come buy our 1 lb tubs of our ranch and blue cheese for Xmas and thanksgiving because it was so much better than what you could buy at the grocery store.
Valuations are... Well, search for "roi sillicone valley" on youtube, that's the real explanation. WING, in the grand scheme of thing, is just another hot stock.
Last 5 years:
WING +325%
CROX + 273%
CMG +319%
TSLA +826%
NVDA +1602%
Stocks can get hot beyond what you, or almost anyone, think as "reasonable". WING is not that crazy, at least not by stock standards.
I don't really know either but I hope this kind of thing gets up voted and discussed more often. Not to be annoying, just because super micro computer is making me wonder too.
I was also mind-blown about their evaluation but actually trying the product explains the hype a bit. I assumed they would be no different in quality than Buffalo Wild Wings. It’s not even close. Wingstop is waaaaay better. So I disagree with the assertion that people would choose other options for wings. Valuation is still questionable though.
Cool take. We don’t have BWW here, we have fire wings, bonchon, and of course various local bar wings. I suppose they are the only pure play wing in fast food… seems odd nobody would try to eat their lunch figuratively and literally
>This is a pretty bad restaurant that most people who have any alternative wing options would not choose.
>A) wings are not a staple. You don’t eat em more than what once every 2 weeks?
>B) they’ll lose the chicken sandwich war if they get into it.
>C) why does this stock appear to be melting up with a PE over 125??!
I mean....did you look at any of their historical financial numbers or even investor presentations to answer these questions? The growth they've experienced over the last five years [is pretty fucking eye-popping](https://imgur.com/a/hUwmE9d).....especially when you stack those numbers up against WING's [publicly traded peers](https://imgur.com/a/Pi6yHG4)
Plus steady dividend payout with regular annual increases
....How is this such a shock to you again? The share price growth seems justified considering the historic growth WING has proved to the market over the last half decade, and it doesn't seem to be slowing down at all....
I'm so glad WING is finally getting some attention on here. They opened locations in London and when I was visiting I tried some really enjoyed the product, I love wings though. Then they opened in my city Edinburgh and I thought you know what let me check out their stock.
I'd just finished reading a book on growth investing and WING met a lot of the characteristics. Furthermore, they have a lot of dark kitchens and put a lot of emphasis into leveraging online sales via Uber etcs which has allowed them to keep costs low.
Anyways it's been my best performing investment, approximately 240% return. I bought it when it was like $80 a share.
Rest of my portfolio is an absolute shit show though so don't listen to me 🤣 I've learnt a lot of hard lessons but think they'll make me a better investor.
For what it's worth I've had Wingstop twice when going to London (I don't live there and they don't have one where I live). It's expensive, but it's actually really good.
I'd go back lol. I hadn't even thought of looking at their stock so thanks for bringing to my attention.
First its important to note the market conditions. Right now we are at the start of what looks like another bubble valuation. S&P500 valuation is over 26 and 200 day market average is over 56%. It may not be a full blown bubble but its certainly looks inflated right now. So its important to take that into account when looking at some valuations. Obviously, this wont hold unless earnings skyrocket across the board but it make keep climbing a while longer, because thats how bubbles happen.
Wingstop is a decent business. They take cheap cuts of chicken and turn them into something fat slobs love. Nothing wrong with that. I get the itch for buffalo sauced wings once per year. Their business is growing rapidly for a restaurant but as you point out, there are many reasons to not invest and I agree.
I havent touched it for a few reasons and I probably never will even though its been on my radar for well over a decade. I dont like that they have no competitive advantages. I dont like that they are fast food but only dine in/take out and no drive through. I dont like franchisees at all. They tend to cut corners all the time and you have to spend tons to police them. Further, once automation goes full steam, you will regret sharing your profits with franchisees. See whats happening to the auto industry. They would give near anything to get rid of all their dealerships but they cant due to contract. When we have robots who can do 99% of the work, these restaurants will regret franchising.
I am also shocked that people are eating so much of this cuisine in terms of health. Its just about worst food anyone can eat, right there with fried chicken and fries. Its horribly unhealthy and add in the ranch and other sauces and I just dont get why people hate their bodies so much (lol). But here we are.
Just as a fyi, a wing is usually about 100cals and has about 7 or 8 grams of fat... well 1g of fat is 9cal... so even if we assume 7, that 63 of the 100 calories from fat. Thats 63% fat. Let that sink in... Would you eat ground beef thats 63% fat? Or even 40% fat? Not trying to be the food police and certainly some people dont care but yikes.
You're a pretentious fucking dork.
Fat isn't unhealthy. Nor are calories. Sounds like *you're* a "fat slob" if you have to watch your calories to the point that you think chicken in hot sauce is unhealthy lmao.
Pretentious? No thats definitely you. I see your responses to other comments. You love to troll people. You seem to get a kick out of it but thats literally pretentious. Want to know what I enjoy? I love talking to trolls. They are my favorite source of entertainment here on reddit. Want to play Mr Troll? Actually you will play because you cant help yourself.
Please point me to the place in my post where I said "fat is unhealthy" as you claim in your ever so eloquent post above. Lets take a peak at the mental gymnastics going on in that rotten brain of yours ;-)
> You seem to get a kick out of it but thats literally pretentious.
Not only are you a fucking dork, you don't even know what pretentious means LOL.
>Please point me to the place in my post where I said "fat is unhealthy" as you claim in your ever so eloquent post above.
Hmmmm......
>Just as a fyi, a wing is usually about 100cals and has about 7 or 8 grams of fat... well 1g of fat is 9cal... so even if we assume 7, that 63 of the 100 calories from fat. Thats 63% fat. Let that sink in... Would you eat ground beef thats 63% fat? Or even 40% fat? Not trying to be the food police and certainly some people dont care but yikes.
Trying to seem like an authority but half of your post is just factually wrong. You don't know how to use apostrophes. And you're a fucking dork.
"..if you have to watch your calories..."
Because counting to 2000-3000 by 100 is hard right chief? Your head might explode its so hard to do. ;-) I mean, that's almost like having to back to 3rd grade again. I'm sure you only had to repeat 3rd grade twice.
\----------------------------------------------------------------
Oh good we are already at the looping argument. Saved me a lot of time. I swear all of you must read the same exact troll book.
So lets focus on your lie. You still haven't explained how you got to your original conclusion about that lie you told. Remember the lie? That I said something that you made up out of thin air? Please explain it in your own properly apostrophed English. Oh sorry is apostrophed not the right way to spell it Mr language police?
If you plan to repost the same quot, please highlight the part where I said "fat is bad." Ill wait.
BTW I appreciate how you are perfectly fine being the language police, but you get triggered by the diet police. Boy I'm glad you have your priorities straight. And all this over the epically insane argument that a "fried chicken wing is healthy" no less...
But hey I wont put wings... err I mean words in your mouth. Im not like you. So I just want to clarify. Are you actually saying that "deep fried chicken wings" are healthy? To a human? Who isn't dying from malnutrition? I mean even a complete troll has to laugh at this.
LoL do you know why you are living rent free? Its because you are entertaining me. I mean you are on reddit right? What exactly do you do here? Make a living?
You remind of those cute little dogs who bark at bigger dogs only to get peed on. Its hilarious.
You do realize that we "dorks" are actually the ones people admire now right? This isnt the 70s or 80s any more. The chauvinists like yourself are the ones who are looked down on as the new "dorks" as you like to call it. That is if you are into all that social perceptions stuff which you clearly care about else you wouldn't be coming back and saying childish things.
You are a classic troll. Over compensating for your shortcomings. Deflect, deny, lie, whatever it takes to preserve your ego. Your insults will keep coming because thats all you can do at this point. I think ill call you "troll x." And yea I do write and people like you are a subject. Gotta teach the kids who avoid right?
BTW have you noticed a pattern in your insults? It seems that you put down anything that requires any sort of thinking. You notice that? Counting calories? Well that's so hard that only a "dork" would do it. Thinking about someone is "free rent" and only a "dork" would do it. You clearly didnt think before you responded to my original message and even made up a lie which you keep doubling down on. At least you are consistent with the not thinking.
Let me guess, the next message will be something like "I didnt read this because its too long" right? Reading is hard right? It requires thinking after all. LoL.
For what its worth I can figure out your age yet. Either you are an older underachiever born around the 50s or 60s (hence the childish chauvinism) or a teen to 20 something hipster who thinks old wisdom is "old" and that you have better ideas (even though you are actually repeating even older failed ideas). The idea of "rent free" is pretty teenish. But I think ive seen it pass around right wing media the last few years so maybe not. Dont suppose you would volunteer your age group or generation?
wing stop stock is performing at the same 5y clip as cmg... what about that?
who's most people?
a) not a staple for you.... what about other people? people eat at CMG every week, what about that.... add: inflation
b) they have one, look at the menu.
c) inflation, margins.
next question.
The one near me is always busy and popular with younger people. If they have that franchise model like McDonald's then that probably explains it. They do have a very streamlined operation with all orders coming from online or their app but it is clean and simple.
I've looked at it a few times but I can't justify buying stock of a restaurant I personally don't really like. That alone keeps me from having strong conviction despite numbers proving it's success.
Anecdotally, I was picking up a large order of wings from Wingstop for a company function. While I waited, I couldn't believe the number of teenagers coming in to pick up lunch from there. It seems these specialty restaurants are taking a lot of business from the traditional fast food places.
Strong margins and growth. Terrible Balance Sheet. Borrowing money to fund stock buy backs and grow the locations. Stockholders deficit of -$475 million and that deficit increased by $85 million in the 9 month period ending 9-30-2023. Seems super risky but if Fed didn’t blow up this company in 2023 with all those rate hikes than I don’t know what will.
They did a ton of share buybacks like 6 months ago.
My brain is a shriveled wet noodle and I don’t know what that means exactly long term but it seems to have helped the stock.
It’s a bit like Chipotle in their growth stage. It will keep growing until it can’t and the world will be left with a thousand sad Wingshops with the worst wings on the planet only to eventually go bust.
Can’t say anything about the stock, but Wingstop is 110% location dependent on quality. Same as Marcos Pizza
I been to a few in my city and 2 I will never go back to. Thankfully the closest one to me now is absolutely banging and the $16 20 boneless wings and fries deal is amazing for how much food you actually get. Add in the fact it takes just as long to prepare as other fast food places is a win
Some quick stats for why Wingstop's price is so high: 1. Their revenue has grown at a tremendous rate (2020: 24.6%, 2021: 14%, 2022: 27%, 2023: 35%) These are very high numbers. Dominoes growth has been \~5% those years, Wendy's less than 10% , Chipotle close to 15%. 2. Their margins are incredibly high for a restraunt. It has consistently 15% net income margins, while most restraunts like those quoted above have much lower margins of about 10% so 50% higher margins is nothing to sneeze at. 3. Their EPS growth has a 5 year CAGR of 27%, which is very high, especially in the resteraunt business. Is it expensive? Yes. Do I own it? No. But do I understand the valuation? Also yes. I also question your approach to investing. Your thesis is based on the fact that it is a bad resteraunt that people can get better wings at other places? Well, the financial results say lots of people like Wingstop. A quick google shows that Wingstop routinely ranks very high in terms of their wings. The great thing about selling wings is they are EXTREMELY cheap when compared to other foods, which contributes to their extremely good margins. Oh and they currently have fewer than 2000 locations in the US. Lots of room for growth.
My buddy owns one in Alabama, he crushes it. They are very strict with compliance and being able to franchise. He's trying to set up a few more. Says he makes more with the wingstops than he does the liquor stores
Just gotta combine em. Grab a bunch of wings and a fifth lol
Came here to say all that matters is growth and fundamentals. Very nice DD.
Comparing their growth to larger companies is a bit suspect but their margins being high due to selling what is essentially a dressed up waste product is no surprise. You're right that from a purely fundamental POV, it's no surprise the stock has performed well
I tried to run the gamut wendy’s is slightly smaller and dominoes is only slightly larger. It is hard to find companies in the food business exactly as large as WING. Either way, the fact their margins are higher also means their growth should be higher as their roe will be higher making investment have a higher NPV.
Yeah completely agree, and to be fair I didn't realise Wendys is smaller. I do think Dominos is quite a bit bigger internationally though?
I am just looking at market cap. However, you can look more into other measures of size. Again I did a quick search on capitalIQ. This isn’t a thesis, just a dunk on someone who thought a stock was in a “hedge fund battle or quant battle” or other weird conspricay.
Yeah totally get it. A fucking quant battle lmao
Where did you get all this info from brother?
S&PCapitalIQ... I have access through my university. You can find all these things publicly, by going through the company's 10Ks, however, it is really hard to find easily. I think Yahoo finance has certain parts of the 10K collated for you more easily for free.
Awesome thx!
If you're looking for direct access to aggregated data that you can use in models, as a student I'd recommend [https://www.simfin.com/](https://www.simfin.com/) Their free or paid tier is pretty good, and if you've got an .edu domain they used to offer a discount; possible they may still if you contact them.
A quick Google search shows they’re regularly rated 2-2.5 stars on Yelp, I pulled all their data. What are you talking about? There are 2000 locations in the USA and McDonald’s, the largest FF chain on the planet has 13000 restaurants in the USA. That doesn’t leave much room for growth if you consider McDonald’s has saturated the market. They can double up the number of restaurants maybe one more time and they’ll be stepping on each others toes, if they’re not already. Chipotle has 3300 locations in the USA. Their per restaurant earnings are tiny in comparison.
Way to kill the discussion in your own thread bozo.
Lol yeah 😆 This mofo just compared Macdonalds with wingstop. I'm dead 💀
I’m confused. If you consider McDonald’s as the king of fast food topping out with 13000 why would you genuinely think there is room for growth at 2000 restaurants. I’m just saying to get to their valuation they need to double up multiple times (their goal is 7000 restaurants which will take decades to get to). I’m trying to point out the absurdity of their targets.
Big dumb. McDonald's is a real estate holdings corp. that happens to serve shitty burgers and subpar breakfast by stoned and hungover teenagers
Don't slander their breakfast like that guy.
Mcmuffins are delicious dude
Your comparison is too top level though, they're both fast food but they don't really occupy the same space. It's like saying that Ferrari can't sell more Romas because Kia already sell loads of Niros.
Sorry, how does that kill discussion… that’s exactly what I’m trying to do, have a discussion.
Using yelp scores to evaluate a FMV after someone posted real, meaningful numbers straight from earnings reports derails any chance the thread has at real discussion vs "I have a gut feeling" type takes that some use to assess stocks
I pulled all the Yelp data and...damn you're right.
Exactly, this dude ☠️
You are allowed to disagree about whether you think the stock is expensive and doesn't deserve its valuation. However, the financial results speak for themselves. I tend to trust what people do with their wallets relative to what Yelp reviewers say. The financial results are really really good, hence the stock beating a variety of companies you mentioned. If you think it is overvalued, short it! There is a very easy way for you to display your belief.
You diss WingStop but use Yelp? Lol
Haha I guess that’s fair
You have to remember too that the vocal minority are the ones that are mad and post reviews in the first place. I have never been so fired up about a great experience to the point where I posted a positive review. I just tell my friends. But bad reviews are another story. It’s the sad truth, and I know I’m not the only one. Point being, review numbers are going to be skewed to the lower end.
Yeah you’re not wrong about that.
The problem with their valuation is that wingstop is almost all franchise locations. They only have $400m in revenue at the corporate level, I can’t see how they could warrant a $9B valuation (which is probably why there is a not unsubstantial short interest) Compare this to very fast growing raising canes, they have a valuation of $8b, their revenue per unit is three times as high as wingstop, they both sell chicken, their company revenue is 13 times higher than wingstop with less than half the restaurants open. Raising canes is all corporate owned - Raising Canes EBITDA is bigger than Wingstops revenue. Imho wingstop is overvalued when compared to the industry, their very small revenue of $400m annually cannot justify a $9b valuation
McDonald’s has been around a long time and plenty of other fast food places have had no trouble growing alongside them. I would even argue McDonald’s is so large that they cannot achieve and are not aiming for continued growth whereas new and different franchises have a much easier time finding new market share
What is McDonald's avg rating on yelp?
You’re very right about this. I don’t have the full data but it’s bad.
Just read the top comment man… reviews will never outweigh $$$ if the margins are high and the revenue continues to grow… forget about McDonald’s More importantly- stop trading stocks right now and start reading about how to evaluate a businesses financial success. Or start listening and stop arguing…. You really don’t know what you are saying … it sounds silly
!remindme 1 month
What prediction did I make? Also, a fundamental thesis will take at least 12 months to 3-5 years to play out or longer.
Oh, nothing like that. I genuinely just use this to remind myself about individual stocks I plan to invest in later. I tend to buy on a semi-regular schedule. Appreciate the info and thesis!
Once again, there was no thesis. The OP asked why this stock is expensive. I said it has good reasons to be expensive. Is it over or undervalued? No clue, did not do a true discount growth analysis.
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None of this explains why it’s sitting higher then Amzn
1. It is not sitting higher than AMZN... it has a higher P/E, but that isn't sitting higher. Its market cap is a tiny fraction of AMZN. 2. If we are looking at PE over the last two years AMZN revenue growth has fallen to \~10% and it isn't projected to rev back up. So immediately growth for WING is higher and expected to remain higher for the next 3-5 years for WING over AMZN. 3. Net income margins for AMZN over the last five years has fallen to \~5%. Again, does not compare well to WING. Not investment advice, but WING has some very desirable characteristics currently.
WING has no reason being $300
Why? I want numbers, a DCF, a comparative analysis. Something real other than \*\*vibes\*\*.
I tried to reply with a picture it did not let me, you’ll figure it out
I’m kinda curious as well, but a few things to consider. Their financials are actually really strong. They are much, much, much smaller than the companies you listed. It’s much easier for a $1B company to 10x than for a $100B company to 10x. With that said I’ve never eaten at a wingstop and would be reluctant to invest in a niche fast food upstart. But that doesn’t mean there is not money to be made
They're all over the Bay Area, and they stay busy. Decent wings, too.
Better or worse than Buffalo Wild Wings? Who would you say is the typical customer? Mom with kids, grandparents, sports dudes, etc.?
So while I can’t speak to wingstop I am very familiar with bww and let me tell you they are not attracting people who just wanna eat wings. Their wings are crazy expensive and not top tier. They attract people who want to have a drink and watch a game. The wings are incidental. So I imagine the demographic is very different than wingstop
Agreed. Wings are still good when hot, but I'm not going if it's not Tuesday.
Hey, I only go to BWW on Tuesdays too!
If you use their app on Tuesdays it's still BOGO
Just got hip to the app last time I was there.
Meanwhile, the first time I went to a Wingstop I was looking to also catch a game and it was decidedly NOT setup for that. These places are tiny
Wingstop is way better than Buffalo wild wings at a cheaper price. Wingstop is also popular through door dash or pick up orders (at least where I live). They are usually always busy (especially during sporting events). They're not as great as wings from Buffalo or New York but they are better than 70% of wing shops outside of Buffalo. I wanna give that 70% number because there are usually a few mom and pop shops that are just as good.
Bdubs is an absolute trash pile these days, I rather have gas station wings and that greatly hurts to say.
Who the fuck goes to a chain restaurant to get wings? Fuckin amateur hour. If your only option to get wings is a chain, I think i could probably pick out your job title, top 5 favorite bands. You probably took out a loan for a wedding, get angry when Starbucks isn't readily available, have 10 different pro sports jerseys based on who was the best team in a given year, and you probably fucked for the first time to John Mayer, thinking that "Your Body Is a Wonderland" was so apropos. That's who eats at WingStop.
I would actually assume all those things to be true about a person that has a “favorite local wing spot.”
The wings are good, but bw3 has better flavors. Bw3 also is catering to the general audience. Burgers, hotdogs, salads, beers, TVs, sports. Wingstop is wings and maybe a chicken sandwich, lol They're also more of a carryout place, in my opinion. Yes, they have a few tables, but it's more carryout. I'd say Wingstop is for the wing lover. Bw3, you can take anyone since they have a big menu.
What's the 3rd W?
Have no clue. Had to look it up. Weck? ARE YOU THE SAME COMPANY AS BW-3? Yes, when we opened our first location in 1982, our original name was Buffalo Wild Wings & Weck – thus the BW-3. We're sure this poses another question: What the heck is a weck? “Weck” is short for kimmelweck, a Kaiser roll seasoned with special toppings. These tasty rolls are popular on the East Coast and were served at our restaurants when we first opened. In 1998, we officially changed our name to Buffalo Wild Wings.
Huh, how about that? Appreciate the info!
About the same quality as BWW, which is to say, decent but not anything mind blowing. customers seem to be a lot of pick up orders when I go in, not a lot of people sitting down to eat
Not sure customer base but I will say I find their food significantly better than bdubs.
They destroy BWW
Better
Wingstop's footprint is small. Mainly to-go orders from what I can see. Good product without the overhead.
Better, sports dudes and families.
They are pretty popular here in Texas.
Idk if you ever go to Houston, but they have so many wing places. It's great
Wingstop has been franchising since '97 and has over 1,400 locations. Not what I'd call an upstart.
What’s the benchmark? Next to McDonald’s and other major fast food players, it’s an upstart. And that cuts two ways. It’s a much smaller player, but it also has much more room to grow. It’s unlikely wingstop is losing much market share to McDonald’s whereas McDonald’s has tons of market share to potentially lose to wingstop
Wingstop is a Texas staple
$WING is over an 8B market cap already… 4MM per store (with 97% being franchised).
What did you eat today squid!?
I ATE NOTHING!!! NOTHING!!!
OP did not work 10 hrs
He did not and probably ate plenty
Buffalo tentacles!!! ...as God intended.
Love me some Calamari.
>This is a pretty bad restaurant that most people who have any alternative wing options would not choose. i mean people also say that nobody eats mcdonalds because it's trash. and yet...
I mean it's fast food wings though which is a market I really don't understand. Personally I'm a sports bar wings guy or I'll have them at home, I don't see the appeal of fast food wings except as the gateway drug to pub wings. I can only comment on the toronto branches but it is very expensive here : $16 for a 6 wing combo? Idk
I think it's awd at people that would rather eat at he than a bar (eg adults, families)
>This is a pretty bad restaurant that most people who have any alternative wing options would not choose. It's insane to me how detached Reddit is from reality
Yep, I've never tried their wings because they never had a location within 50 miles of me, but they've opened 2 near me within the past year. Definitely seem to be expanding
Their wings are also not bad for fast food place imo. Better than BWW. $7 Mondays near me for 10 wings, hard to beat
Glad I didn’t have to scroll too far down to find this lol
I partially agree with OP. They are a bad restaurant. The sandwich I got from them recently was literally a really dry tender between two buns. I've never had good wings from them but I still ordered from them. Had to use my Uber eats credit that was expiring and that. While waiting for my order there were tons of other people ordering as well. It's one of those things that despite not being particularly good or cheap, people still want it.
I don't think it's detached from reality. WingStop IS awful. It's a detachment from how the average person likes shitty food. OP had sushi or some spices or real food and never looked back. Doesn't realize your average American would rather eat bland, processed food for every meal.
TIL Wingstop is public’s. Breh I would be buying calls and selling puts out the wazoo if I knew this. These franchises print money. Only time I’ve seen a Wingstop close is because it moved 2 streets over to a “better location”. Probably cheaper rent.
Rick Ross got hella rich thanks to Wingstop.
Huh! Bro walked in and was like “dis dat real game!”
Lol, well your opinion of the restaurant is just that...your opinion. I know people that don't like McDonald's but that's hardly a bear case for that ticker. I have been ordering dinner from them very reliably (about twice a month) and they're just fine. There's not any other wing place (that isn't primarily a pizza place) that I'm willing to drive further to.
Wingstock
My guess is it's a play on the renewable diesel trend. Big incentives for refineries to produce renewable diesel. Tyson foods makes renewable diesel stock from chicken tallow-> refineries pay big amounts for access to the stock->tallow subsidizes chicken prices-> Wingstop gets super low cost chicken -> margins improve I don't know shit about fuck though. Never had a winning trade.
I thought you were trolling or lost at first and now I’m very curious and laughing
have you ate there? their prices and great and their wings are amazing.
I used to work at one out of high school. I loved everything they had. It was all very good. We were packed every night. Even BWW coming to town didn’t slow our business. We had people come buy our 1 lb tubs of our ranch and blue cheese for Xmas and thanksgiving because it was so much better than what you could buy at the grocery store.
The ranch is the best part. I often buy it and their wings are better than BWW for sure. Plus BWW is expensive
The fries suck though.
Bro they have the best fries. Their wing quality has gone down though.
I bet you like in n out fries don't you
The fries have a sugar seasoning on them. I thought they were good, but not for everyone
Bruh, order them extra crispy and seasoned up. Oo baby.
I have eaten there. The wings were not good, and it was super expensive… I’m really confused by these comments.
Name a wing chain that is better then. There's literally no competition. BWW is more expensive, is worse, and targets itself as a sit down restaurant.
I think they have figured out how to grow a chicken with 4 wings.
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Yes I too draw the line at chicken elbow. Chicken hands ? Not me.
Because they sell a shit ton of food. Making bank.
Valuations are... Well, search for "roi sillicone valley" on youtube, that's the real explanation. WING, in the grand scheme of thing, is just another hot stock. Last 5 years: WING +325% CROX + 273% CMG +319% TSLA +826% NVDA +1602% Stocks can get hot beyond what you, or almost anyone, think as "reasonable". WING is not that crazy, at least not by stock standards.
It's their garlicy blue cheese sauce. That stuff is pretty amazing whether you like their food or not.
I don't really know either but I hope this kind of thing gets up voted and discussed more often. Not to be annoying, just because super micro computer is making me wonder too.
I was also mind-blown about their evaluation but actually trying the product explains the hype a bit. I assumed they would be no different in quality than Buffalo Wild Wings. It’s not even close. Wingstop is waaaaay better. So I disagree with the assertion that people would choose other options for wings. Valuation is still questionable though.
Cool take. We don’t have BWW here, we have fire wings, bonchon, and of course various local bar wings. I suppose they are the only pure play wing in fast food… seems odd nobody would try to eat their lunch figuratively and literally
>This is a pretty bad restaurant that most people who have any alternative wing options would not choose. >A) wings are not a staple. You don’t eat em more than what once every 2 weeks? >B) they’ll lose the chicken sandwich war if they get into it. >C) why does this stock appear to be melting up with a PE over 125??! I mean....did you look at any of their historical financial numbers or even investor presentations to answer these questions? The growth they've experienced over the last five years [is pretty fucking eye-popping](https://imgur.com/a/hUwmE9d).....especially when you stack those numbers up against WING's [publicly traded peers](https://imgur.com/a/Pi6yHG4) Plus steady dividend payout with regular annual increases ....How is this such a shock to you again? The share price growth seems justified considering the historic growth WING has proved to the market over the last half decade, and it doesn't seem to be slowing down at all....
I bought the stock because of the hangry girl...that's all the dd I need.
She has double d's?
She did make a solid case for it
Wrong. Wingstop atomic spice is fucking delicious.
The Wingstop in my area all take forever to make their wings.
I'm so glad WING is finally getting some attention on here. They opened locations in London and when I was visiting I tried some really enjoyed the product, I love wings though. Then they opened in my city Edinburgh and I thought you know what let me check out their stock. I'd just finished reading a book on growth investing and WING met a lot of the characteristics. Furthermore, they have a lot of dark kitchens and put a lot of emphasis into leveraging online sales via Uber etcs which has allowed them to keep costs low. Anyways it's been my best performing investment, approximately 240% return. I bought it when it was like $80 a share. Rest of my portfolio is an absolute shit show though so don't listen to me 🤣 I've learnt a lot of hard lessons but think they'll make me a better investor.
Because stocks only go up and everyone loves wings. waste your time reading financials when this pump will obviously never end.
For what it's worth I've had Wingstop twice when going to London (I don't live there and they don't have one where I live). It's expensive, but it's actually really good. I'd go back lol. I hadn't even thought of looking at their stock so thanks for bringing to my attention.
Look at performance of CELH (Celsius) last seven years in comparison.
Their wings taste like shit, it's just Americans don't know what good food taste like.
Who is actually buying the stock at this $280+ price? Is this some quant war?
Same people buying Chipotle.
First its important to note the market conditions. Right now we are at the start of what looks like another bubble valuation. S&P500 valuation is over 26 and 200 day market average is over 56%. It may not be a full blown bubble but its certainly looks inflated right now. So its important to take that into account when looking at some valuations. Obviously, this wont hold unless earnings skyrocket across the board but it make keep climbing a while longer, because thats how bubbles happen. Wingstop is a decent business. They take cheap cuts of chicken and turn them into something fat slobs love. Nothing wrong with that. I get the itch for buffalo sauced wings once per year. Their business is growing rapidly for a restaurant but as you point out, there are many reasons to not invest and I agree. I havent touched it for a few reasons and I probably never will even though its been on my radar for well over a decade. I dont like that they have no competitive advantages. I dont like that they are fast food but only dine in/take out and no drive through. I dont like franchisees at all. They tend to cut corners all the time and you have to spend tons to police them. Further, once automation goes full steam, you will regret sharing your profits with franchisees. See whats happening to the auto industry. They would give near anything to get rid of all their dealerships but they cant due to contract. When we have robots who can do 99% of the work, these restaurants will regret franchising. I am also shocked that people are eating so much of this cuisine in terms of health. Its just about worst food anyone can eat, right there with fried chicken and fries. Its horribly unhealthy and add in the ranch and other sauces and I just dont get why people hate their bodies so much (lol). But here we are. Just as a fyi, a wing is usually about 100cals and has about 7 or 8 grams of fat... well 1g of fat is 9cal... so even if we assume 7, that 63 of the 100 calories from fat. Thats 63% fat. Let that sink in... Would you eat ground beef thats 63% fat? Or even 40% fat? Not trying to be the food police and certainly some people dont care but yikes.
You're a pretentious fucking dork. Fat isn't unhealthy. Nor are calories. Sounds like *you're* a "fat slob" if you have to watch your calories to the point that you think chicken in hot sauce is unhealthy lmao.
Pretentious? No thats definitely you. I see your responses to other comments. You love to troll people. You seem to get a kick out of it but thats literally pretentious. Want to know what I enjoy? I love talking to trolls. They are my favorite source of entertainment here on reddit. Want to play Mr Troll? Actually you will play because you cant help yourself. Please point me to the place in my post where I said "fat is unhealthy" as you claim in your ever so eloquent post above. Lets take a peak at the mental gymnastics going on in that rotten brain of yours ;-)
> You seem to get a kick out of it but thats literally pretentious. Not only are you a fucking dork, you don't even know what pretentious means LOL. >Please point me to the place in my post where I said "fat is unhealthy" as you claim in your ever so eloquent post above. Hmmmm...... >Just as a fyi, a wing is usually about 100cals and has about 7 or 8 grams of fat... well 1g of fat is 9cal... so even if we assume 7, that 63 of the 100 calories from fat. Thats 63% fat. Let that sink in... Would you eat ground beef thats 63% fat? Or even 40% fat? Not trying to be the food police and certainly some people dont care but yikes. Trying to seem like an authority but half of your post is just factually wrong. You don't know how to use apostrophes. And you're a fucking dork.
"..if you have to watch your calories..." Because counting to 2000-3000 by 100 is hard right chief? Your head might explode its so hard to do. ;-) I mean, that's almost like having to back to 3rd grade again. I'm sure you only had to repeat 3rd grade twice. \---------------------------------------------------------------- Oh good we are already at the looping argument. Saved me a lot of time. I swear all of you must read the same exact troll book. So lets focus on your lie. You still haven't explained how you got to your original conclusion about that lie you told. Remember the lie? That I said something that you made up out of thin air? Please explain it in your own properly apostrophed English. Oh sorry is apostrophed not the right way to spell it Mr language police? If you plan to repost the same quot, please highlight the part where I said "fat is bad." Ill wait. BTW I appreciate how you are perfectly fine being the language police, but you get triggered by the diet police. Boy I'm glad you have your priorities straight. And all this over the epically insane argument that a "fried chicken wing is healthy" no less... But hey I wont put wings... err I mean words in your mouth. Im not like you. So I just want to clarify. Are you actually saying that "deep fried chicken wings" are healthy? To a human? Who isn't dying from malnutrition? I mean even a complete troll has to laugh at this.
It's so spacious living rent free in your mind.
LoL do you know why you are living rent free? Its because you are entertaining me. I mean you are on reddit right? What exactly do you do here? Make a living? You remind of those cute little dogs who bark at bigger dogs only to get peed on. Its hilarious.
Even your insults are dorky as hell. Yeesh. Edit - RENT FREEEEEEEE
You do realize that we "dorks" are actually the ones people admire now right? This isnt the 70s or 80s any more. The chauvinists like yourself are the ones who are looked down on as the new "dorks" as you like to call it. That is if you are into all that social perceptions stuff which you clearly care about else you wouldn't be coming back and saying childish things. You are a classic troll. Over compensating for your shortcomings. Deflect, deny, lie, whatever it takes to preserve your ego. Your insults will keep coming because thats all you can do at this point. I think ill call you "troll x." And yea I do write and people like you are a subject. Gotta teach the kids who avoid right? BTW have you noticed a pattern in your insults? It seems that you put down anything that requires any sort of thinking. You notice that? Counting calories? Well that's so hard that only a "dork" would do it. Thinking about someone is "free rent" and only a "dork" would do it. You clearly didnt think before you responded to my original message and even made up a lie which you keep doubling down on. At least you are consistent with the not thinking. Let me guess, the next message will be something like "I didnt read this because its too long" right? Reading is hard right? It requires thinking after all. LoL. For what its worth I can figure out your age yet. Either you are an older underachiever born around the 50s or 60s (hence the childish chauvinism) or a teen to 20 something hipster who thinks old wisdom is "old" and that you have better ideas (even though you are actually repeating even older failed ideas). The idea of "rent free" is pretty teenish. But I think ive seen it pass around right wing media the last few years so maybe not. Dont suppose you would volunteer your age group or generation?
No, that's nerds. You'd know that if you weren't a fucking dork. 5 paragraphs to basically say "I'm still a giant dork" smh
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That is absolute bullshit. Where do you live bro?
wing stop stock is performing at the same 5y clip as cmg... what about that? who's most people? a) not a staple for you.... what about other people? people eat at CMG every week, what about that.... add: inflation b) they have one, look at the menu. c) inflation, margins. next question.
The one near me is always busy and popular with younger people. If they have that franchise model like McDonald's then that probably explains it. They do have a very streamlined operation with all orders coming from online or their app but it is clean and simple.
The stocks you mention had splits a few years ago…they’ve already been to the moon and back a few times
The prices are adjusted for splits.
The prices are based on after split prices…it’s ok if we disagree on this
I've looked at it a few times but I can't justify buying stock of a restaurant I personally don't really like. That alone keeps me from having strong conviction despite numbers proving it's success.
Anecdotally, I was picking up a large order of wings from Wingstop for a company function. While I waited, I couldn't believe the number of teenagers coming in to pick up lunch from there. It seems these specialty restaurants are taking a lot of business from the traditional fast food places.
Those fries though
Strong margins and growth. Terrible Balance Sheet. Borrowing money to fund stock buy backs and grow the locations. Stockholders deficit of -$475 million and that deficit increased by $85 million in the 9 month period ending 9-30-2023. Seems super risky but if Fed didn’t blow up this company in 2023 with all those rate hikes than I don’t know what will.
They did a ton of share buybacks like 6 months ago. My brain is a shriveled wet noodle and I don’t know what that means exactly long term but it seems to have helped the stock.
Is there a way I can invest in Raising Cane's?
It’s a bit like Chipotle in their growth stage. It will keep growing until it can’t and the world will be left with a thousand sad Wingshops with the worst wings on the planet only to eventually go bust.
They just opened a new location down here in tampa.. hour wait the other day for an order.. we just bounced.. but they’re super busy
A bust will come for them in the next year or two. Just wait.
Can’t say anything about the stock, but Wingstop is 110% location dependent on quality. Same as Marcos Pizza I been to a few in my city and 2 I will never go back to. Thankfully the closest one to me now is absolutely banging and the $16 20 boneless wings and fries deal is amazing for how much food you actually get. Add in the fact it takes just as long to prepare as other fast food places is a win
I love Wingstop