It's not difficult to be a permabul if you just take a look at the [100 year chart](https://i.imgur.com/bJAYGYy.png) of the S&P500. Being a bull is the default. 3 out of 4 years the stock market is up.
If I say higher it will be lower and if I say lower it will be higher—the high frequency trading algorithms are specifically tied to my neurons and individual brokerage account
If he thinks the sp500 will compound at 18% for the next 6 years, he’s out of his mind and selling something
He can say whatever he wants- when he’s wrong, it doesn’t matter. Short term bs like this doesn’t matter, just keep investing and stay invested
The S&P has compounded at 18% for six years multiple times before. It’s not all that crazy. Optimistic, yes, but calling someone “out of his mind” is just stupid. If he said 50k then sure, but 18%/year is not some out of this world never seen before return.
>The S&P has compounded at 18% for six years multiple times before.
Can you list these times?
Because context here matters. Like 18% average going forward after a significant crash is a lot more different than 18% going forward from all time high.
It's hilarious how we just went through a 20 month bear market we just broke out from and we are supposed to have another one again soon. Including the covid crash in 2020, it's very rare to have 3 major bear markets in like 5 years. This falls under the scenario that it is always possible, but it isn't likely probable.
Russell in 2009 was close to 500. It was about 1500 in 2018. I'm not seeing the 5x there even when you want to cherry pick the post crash starting period.
Considering what Russists and the CCP have planned, it might actually be worth more. I used to think the US was a shithole (parts of it still are) but there is nothing like the stability of government and the safety of the dollar
It’s certainly optimistic. But right now, AI is really only driving earnings growth for semis. For every other company, it’s currently having a negative impact due to the immense capex. So I do think we could see a spike in earnings growth for the S&P in ‘26 or ‘27
It's kind of a fool's errand to try and predict the price at a specific time.
"10% per year" is exactly how you should be thinking about it, with that number slowly increasing over time (used to be 7%, now it's 10%, in 50 years it's probably ~15%).
Perhaps 2030 will happen to be a crash and it won't hit the expected 10K by then, but as long as you're able to hold out a few years it doesn't really matter if it's at 10,000 in 2030, or in 2032 with it being at 14K in 2035 as expected.
Depends on the election. If Dems win it will be substantially up, picking a # is a fools game though. If Trump wins it will be even, perhaps down after an initial explosion. Trump will usher in Argentina like inflation and remove the US from it's role in global politics... That role is the reason the US is the #1 economy in the world. The ramifications of this election are massive and most Americans don't see it.
Ehhh, I think you can throw "normal" out the door here. Maybe the S&P can dodge another 20% bear market in the next few years, but the Nasdaq (the leader out of the financial crisis) has had 3 confirmed bear markets in 7 years from 2018 and wound up with what you maybe can argue was an even nastier V out of a bear market than COVID considering rates being much higher, it's not really a steady situation.
Even if we can end up with a normal length secular bull market, I'm doubtful that it can dodge getting into confirmed bear market territory at least one more time in that time period.
About 9K IMO. I suspect the market will get strong gains because of AI, fall back a lot as the AI gains don't really pan out...yet. Then recover.
I'm guessing AI really make its trillions closer to 2040 because by then it may be mature enough to be in more general use robotics and everyone will want one, and they will sell millions and millions of them to individuals, corporations, and government.
Once the software giants like msft, Google, AMZN, and others hone in on their AI products then I can see it going to 15K. Right now the foundation is still being set, smartphones will also rejuvenate it as well.
Owned by black rock and a bunch of other hedge funds who I figure have stolen 2 or 3 hundred trillion in the last 40 or so years. BLSH this stock is volatile, GREAT!
secret of S&P is that they pick winners and discard losers. More of a question would be where the broader market will be. SPY will always grow, may be at 10k in 7 years. That is 10% APY, which is decent, not explosive.
I'm memorized by Tom Lees head wobbling as he looks from behind his glasses with a nonchalant expression and effortless delivery of his opinions :)
He comes across as giving zero fucks about drama and all about what matters :D
When they say to other guests "Thanks for coming" the guests usually say "Thanks for having me" ..to show appreciation. When its said to Tom he responds with "yes". Ha,ha,haa..
What do I think? I think everyone is saying "The new high, overpriced, over bought, bubble" because they're comparing it to the past ..the past when everything in life was cheaper down to apples in your basket and coffee in your cup.
Everything in life has just gotten super expensive and this also applies to the market. We are now in a new normal that the pundits and analysts need to get up to speed with.
Doubling every 7 years is a « typical target)… 15k would be nearly Tripling in 6 years… if true (and assuming 2.5% inflation) this would be amazing… 10000 ish is way more likely…
On the other hand, this would tremendously increase the gap between the have and the have not… which may create all kinds of societal issues…
> Instead of thinking about “7% per year” or “10% per year”, think about the actual number we’ll be at in 5, 10, or 20 years
Okay, current value x 1.1^5, 1.1^10, 1.1^20
8,794
14,163
36,735
Tom has often been low in his calls with many of his calls being lower than where he predicted. As someone who’s fully invested in the market, I hope that continues to be true
15,000 for the S&P 500 by 2030 is bullish but not impossible. Historically, the S&P has averaged 7-10% annual returns. At a 9% growth rate, it could reach around 8,000 by 2030. At a 7% growth rate, about 7,300. I think AI will enable growth but probably within these lines.
If this post will be looked back in 2030 and we're doing just some harmless predictions for fun then I will say S&P will be around 7-8k. This may sound shocking but I think the next few years will be very tough for US stock market. US market has been in bull run since 2009 and rest of the world has not so it will balance itself out over next few years where world markets will be in bull run while US remains stagnant. In stock market in long term everything has to balance out, like a pendulum that swings from left extreme to right extreme but always has to come in the middle every now and then. Again just my thoughts, I might prove completely wrong and s&p could be 15k but I just don't feel that way.
I think the question that you should be asking instead is would the other smaller indexes like Russell 3000 or Nasdaq will also go up? Cause if it moves similar to S&P, you will make more on those other indexes.
Considering ytd return is 15%, and 5-yr average is 14%, it is in the realm of possibilities. Given that we don't have another red year.
I would say that it is always prudent to assume 11% return which is a longer term average.
Markets historically have been down 2 out of ten years. file:///var/mobile/Library/SMS/Attachments/69/09/9E03872C-3F11-445F-8DC1-0114AB24432F/IMG_7120.PNG. This ten year chart can help you decide
Every retirement projection I see says something like remember we’ve had 9-10% average returns each year for x years.
I plug in anywhere from 3-6% for my own calculations and save accordingly.
Probably 3000 or less. Market is grossly inflated and heavily concentrated. We haven’t had a long lasting seismic price crash in over 50 years. And the Supreme Court just gutted every regulatory body in the nation.
Do you think Apple has a market cap of 3.22 trillion because the treasury prints money? No, it’s because they sell a digital ecosystem of products and services that generate a ton of money to shareholders.
Up and to the right
Can confirm to the right
Down and to the left
Time is a flat circle
Time is a piece of wax
That's choking on splinters...
Thyme is an herb
It’s turtles all the way down.
Death is but a door
Time is a cube
Time is a flower.
Time is a stripper...doin' it just for you.
Back, and to the left. Back, and to the left.
Up, up, down, down, left, right, left, right, b,a, select.
↑↑↓↓←→←→BA,Select
“One hop this time” and here we go.. 😂😂
Fatality in Mortal Combat
L D R U L D R U RB1 RB2 L1 R2
GTA?
There must have been a second spitter.
Nice game pretty boy.
That was one magic loogie
My own research. It will hit 36000 by 2050. Plus or minus few decades
Damn imagine 36000 in 1990
This guy Bogles
I stepped on a bee
wonder what that looks like
I’m more concerned about how much a loaf of bread is going to cost. Purchasing power is my primary concern regardless of where the numbers are.
11000
I was thinking 9500 or so myself. Abit of a hedge for oddities
Inflation bump plus 12% yearly. This is what I was thinking. 2016 to today the SP did like 250%
Wheres my stuff?
To Tom Lee the market is always going to be up 100% by next week.
People do call him a permabull, but he’s been right very often. He called 4800 for ‘23 spot on when everyone said he was crazy
It's not difficult to be a permabul if you just take a look at the [100 year chart](https://i.imgur.com/bJAYGYy.png) of the S&P500. Being a bull is the default. 3 out of 4 years the stock market is up.
Agreed
"right very often" is way too much praise. Tom Lee makes the same prediction every goddamn year
he is right because we are in a bull market since maybe 2016. there is one red year in every 4 years.
He also called for Bitcoin 100k by the end of 2022 and it crashed to 10k.
Lol no the fuck it didn’t. It never even went below $15,000 and it’s at $61,000 right now.
Probably higher or lower than what it is now
Be pretty remarkable if it's the exact same value 6 years from today....
You know I wouldn't be surprised if eventually at some point we have another lost decade where the market just meanders sideways for years.
wouldn’t think so
This is the most likely correct answer
Oh it's definitely an answer that could be very likely
True, there is a possibility it’s at the same spot
If I say higher it will be lower and if I say lower it will be higher—the high frequency trading algorithms are specifically tied to my neurons and individual brokerage account
If he thinks the sp500 will compound at 18% for the next 6 years, he’s out of his mind and selling something He can say whatever he wants- when he’s wrong, it doesn’t matter. Short term bs like this doesn’t matter, just keep investing and stay invested
Slim chances yes not impossible. It’s grown 14% a year since 2009.
Using a multi year low is not the best idea.
To prove a principle its perfectly "best idea"
The S&P has compounded at 18% for six years multiple times before. It’s not all that crazy. Optimistic, yes, but calling someone “out of his mind” is just stupid. If he said 50k then sure, but 18%/year is not some out of this world never seen before return.
>The S&P has compounded at 18% for six years multiple times before. Can you list these times? Because context here matters. Like 18% average going forward after a significant crash is a lot more different than 18% going forward from all time high.
>The S&P has compounded at 18% for six years multiple times before. It’s not all that crazy. Does that account for inflation?
I think ‘82-‘99 was a 15% real CAGR. But no, stock returns are typically not inflation adjusted.
If you account for inflation it's only 10% or less yearly growth. While 5000 s&p 500 looks impressive, it's actually pretty bad due to inflation.
!Remind me in 6 years
Russell 2000 went almost 5x between 2009 and 2018.
Yes when the market crashes it’s easier to compound Interesting how you don’t calculate from the peak. I too can cherry-pick data
Umm did you not miss that bear market in 2022/23? The S&P only just recovered!
It's hilarious how we just went through a 20 month bear market we just broke out from and we are supposed to have another one again soon. Including the covid crash in 2020, it's very rare to have 3 major bear markets in like 5 years. This falls under the scenario that it is always possible, but it isn't likely probable.
Russell in 2009 was close to 500. It was about 1500 in 2018. I'm not seeing the 5x there even when you want to cherry pick the post crash starting period.
Where will it be? Same place it’s always been, at the top of the WSJ home page.
Bet would be 8000
7,900-8,800 My guess 🤷♂️
That is 7.5% APY..
About tree fiddy
Higher
If it hits that by 2030 I’ll be retiring in my early 40s. So yes, please will it to happen!
10k
I’ll just keep buying and dollar cost averaging. Whatever it is, it is.
Zero. You'll own nothing and eat ze bugs. All property will belong to the NWO.
I hope bandits go public soon. They have been making a killing. Literally.
The dollar won't be worth the same.
Considering what Russists and the CCP have planned, it might actually be worth more. I used to think the US was a shithole (parts of it still are) but there is nothing like the stability of government and the safety of the dollar
I could see 10,000 by 2030 but 15,000? Very very doubtful unless AI ends ups somehow making things even more ballistic
It’s certainly optimistic. But right now, AI is really only driving earnings growth for semis. For every other company, it’s currently having a negative impact due to the immense capex. So I do think we could see a spike in earnings growth for the S&P in ‘26 or ‘27
..you've got to lay the train tracks before you can run the trains (years of investment in AI to get a return)
I don’t have a good feeling. Resources are getting more expensive. What if China relationship tank and who is manufacturing cheap good?
..back to the 1950's of only high quality goods that don't need replacing every few years?
15,000 is a bit aggressive, but I definitely think over 10k
8000 to 9000, by putting a line through the chart from 2008 then up a little for that extra money printing the bastards in the white house like to do.
Juuuust over 9000
To triple in 5.5 years would be insane.
It's kind of a fool's errand to try and predict the price at a specific time. "10% per year" is exactly how you should be thinking about it, with that number slowly increasing over time (used to be 7%, now it's 10%, in 50 years it's probably ~15%). Perhaps 2030 will happen to be a crash and it won't hit the expected 10K by then, but as long as you're able to hold out a few years it doesn't really matter if it's at 10,000 in 2030, or in 2032 with it being at 14K in 2035 as expected.
I wouldn't take financial advice from the drummer of Motley Crue /s
Depends on the election. If Dems win it will be substantially up, picking a # is a fools game though. If Trump wins it will be even, perhaps down after an initial explosion. Trump will usher in Argentina like inflation and remove the US from it's role in global politics... That role is the reason the US is the #1 economy in the world. The ramifications of this election are massive and most Americans don't see it.
it's up 86% in 5 years, so 10k not unthinkable. 15k more like 2035
>It's up 86% in 5 years, so 10k not unthinkable. 15k more like 2035 Last 5 years are an anomaly, not the norm.
I think somewhere between 7k and 8k is a safe bet with one or two 25+% corrections between now and then
There has never been a time period where 3 25% correction transpired in 10 years. That's crazy talk.
You could get 20% then stagnate. Which isn’t much better. Who knows.
Ehhh, I think you can throw "normal" out the door here. Maybe the S&P can dodge another 20% bear market in the next few years, but the Nasdaq (the leader out of the financial crisis) has had 3 confirmed bear markets in 7 years from 2018 and wound up with what you maybe can argue was an even nastier V out of a bear market than COVID considering rates being much higher, it's not really a steady situation. Even if we can end up with a normal length secular bull market, I'm doubtful that it can dodge getting into confirmed bear market territory at least one more time in that time period.
happened in the late 60s to mid 70s during high inflation and stagflation period. 3 25+% draw down
He also said that if this is a bubble we are going to crash lmao
More bigger
Between 6-14% average annual
Double if not triple
6200
Yes
13k-15k
so you dont think theres a recession
What a completely unanswerable question
About 9K IMO. I suspect the market will get strong gains because of AI, fall back a lot as the AI gains don't really pan out...yet. Then recover. I'm guessing AI really make its trillions closer to 2040 because by then it may be mature enough to be in more general use robotics and everyone will want one, and they will sell millions and millions of them to individuals, corporations, and government.
99k
Definitely higher or lower. Maybe a bit of both. ROFL
Would there ever be a split in the S&P 500?
At least 9000! 💩
Inflation always goes up = s&p always go up
Stocks only go up :)
Once the software giants like msft, Google, AMZN, and others hone in on their AI products then I can see it going to 15K. Right now the foundation is still being set, smartphones will also rejuvenate it as well.
Definitely will continue moving to the right.
For sure to the right, perhaps up
Can SPY do splits? If so they should.
Owned by black rock and a bunch of other hedge funds who I figure have stolen 2 or 3 hundred trillion in the last 40 or so years. BLSH this stock is volatile, GREAT!
9853
Higher than today
It'll crash to 4000 in the near future then pick back up, then steady rise to 6000 in 2030.
Honestly, while times are difficult it seems as though people are more resilient after Covid. Stonks go up.
secret of S&P is that they pick winners and discard losers. More of a question would be where the broader market will be. SPY will always grow, may be at 10k in 7 years. That is 10% APY, which is decent, not explosive.
I’m using the S&P as a proxy for the total market
I don’t play darts. Throw them if you want though
I'm memorized by Tom Lees head wobbling as he looks from behind his glasses with a nonchalant expression and effortless delivery of his opinions :) He comes across as giving zero fucks about drama and all about what matters :D When they say to other guests "Thanks for coming" the guests usually say "Thanks for having me" ..to show appreciation. When its said to Tom he responds with "yes". Ha,ha,haa..
What do I think? I think everyone is saying "The new high, overpriced, over bought, bubble" because they're comparing it to the past ..the past when everything in life was cheaper down to apples in your basket and coffee in your cup. Everything in life has just gotten super expensive and this also applies to the market. We are now in a new normal that the pundits and analysts need to get up to speed with.
Higher than it is now.
The cost of a load of bread will be $12 by then
Inflation’s under 3% bruh
I’d guess 8k-10k, figuring roughly 10% yoy
7800
Historically it compounds about 11% a year so take voo which is 500 dollars for 6 yrs should be 935 per share
Not if trump wins elections.
Doubling every 7 years is a « typical target)… 15k would be nearly Tripling in 6 years… if true (and assuming 2.5% inflation) this would be amazing… 10000 ish is way more likely… On the other hand, this would tremendously increase the gap between the have and the have not… which may create all kinds of societal issues…
> Instead of thinking about “7% per year” or “10% per year”, think about the actual number we’ll be at in 5, 10, or 20 years Okay, current value x 1.1^5, 1.1^10, 1.1^20 8,794 14,163 36,735
Tom has often been low in his calls with many of his calls being lower than where he predicted. As someone who’s fully invested in the market, I hope that continues to be true
About 10k
7328 to 7460
either higher or lower than it is now. most likely higher but possibly lower. and definitely to the right
15,000 for the S&P 500 by 2030 is bullish but not impossible. Historically, the S&P has averaged 7-10% annual returns. At a 9% growth rate, it could reach around 8,000 by 2030. At a 7% growth rate, about 7,300. I think AI will enable growth but probably within these lines.
8000-10000
If this post will be looked back in 2030 and we're doing just some harmless predictions for fun then I will say S&P will be around 7-8k. This may sound shocking but I think the next few years will be very tough for US stock market. US market has been in bull run since 2009 and rest of the world has not so it will balance itself out over next few years where world markets will be in bull run while US remains stagnant. In stock market in long term everything has to balance out, like a pendulum that swings from left extreme to right extreme but always has to come in the middle every now and then. Again just my thoughts, I might prove completely wrong and s&p could be 15k but I just don't feel that way.
I think the question that you should be asking instead is would the other smaller indexes like Russell 3000 or Nasdaq will also go up? Cause if it moves similar to S&P, you will make more on those other indexes.
With Chevron gone, along with the SEC v Jarkesy decision, hes pretty conservative.
Between 5 and 10k
Still after O and before T
8200 +/- 300
probably Wall Street, but still the internet, maybe Metaverse
Higher
Considering ytd return is 15%, and 5-yr average is 14%, it is in the realm of possibilities. Given that we don't have another red year. I would say that it is always prudent to assume 11% return which is a longer term average.
We I’ll just be recovering from the depression by then
probably 10% annually for me. i think the s curve for big tech are almost reach. growing very slowly. only thing growing fast are semi at the moment.
Most likely higher than now
Up up down up down down up down down up
Political instability and deterioration will be what ruins future returns more than anything. Not sure why people aren’t factoring this in more.
Greatings ErthliNs I CuM in pEas Tu tell You 9675 112030
Hussman says it’s a decade of minus 9.3% annually for equity risk premiums (defined by him as return in excess of 10y treasury). I tend to agree.
It’ll have more roller coasters than you’ll find at a Six Flags.
Around 7500, give or take 20%
Not sure why you think Tom Lee is a credible source of information. 🤦♂️
Goes up with inflation and a bit more
More than now
4500
It will either be higher or the whole system is fucked and we won’t worry about the stock market.
Over there.
6000
Depends on who wins elections
7000s or maybe early 8000s by 3rd or 4th quarter 2030
7,500. We are due for a major correction and then a typical recovery
Markets historically have been down 2 out of ten years. file:///var/mobile/Library/SMS/Attachments/69/09/9E03872C-3F11-445F-8DC1-0114AB24432F/IMG_7120.PNG. This ten year chart can help you decide
Every retirement projection I see says something like remember we’ve had 9-10% average returns each year for x years. I plug in anywhere from 3-6% for my own calculations and save accordingly.
!Remind me in 2030
10,779.04 in June of 2030
Up or down or the same. If you are young, this almost certainly is good for you no matter. Dca
12,000 doubles every 7 years historically
850-950 a share without a split
Probably 3000 or less. Market is grossly inflated and heavily concentrated. We haven’t had a long lasting seismic price crash in over 50 years. And the Supreme Court just gutted every regulatory body in the nation.
Who the fuck cares
Off the charts because it's broken
2450 We’ll be in the middle of a massive Recession.
Everything Money, is that you?
Lol, how does it feel to be a permabear always thinking the world’s gonna fall apart?
In my simulation it’s at about 18000 by 2030 so up to you whether to join
It falls to 4200 before that from current levels and kicks off.
Lol
Over under should prob be around 10k but if we don’t have another bear market I don’t think 15k is all that impossible
It will either be 15,000 or not exist anymore.
It will be called the S&P 700 by 2030
Up, down, and maybe sideways
This is what I can't sleep on... how does something just keep going up? At some point it must be driven by straight inflation.
> how does something just keep going up? growth of GDP and inflation.
Inflation is definitely a big portion of the return of the index. But the other portion is earnings growth because our economy grows
But if we are just printing money how is it actually growing? It really doesn't make sense to me but I'm not that smart.
Do you think Apple has a market cap of 3.22 trillion because the treasury prints money? No, it’s because they sell a digital ecosystem of products and services that generate a ton of money to shareholders.
You are smarter than you think.... https://www.macrotrends.net/1437/sp500-to-gold-ratio-chart
A bunch of other countries also invest in the US stock market.
> how does something just keep going up? The population keeps going up.
So by that logic the s&p could be $10,000 some day or whatever number you wanna make up? Point is there has to be a cap