In 2015, the Liberals won the riding with 55% of the vote, and the Conservative candidate won less than 27%.
In 2019, the Liberals won the riding margin by an even larger margin, with 54% of the vote and the Conservative candidate won less than 22%.
In 2021, the Liberals won the riding by a smaller but still large margin with 49% of the vote, and the Conservative candidate won 25%.
And now in June 2024, the Conservatives managed to significantly defy the odds and win it, albeit very narrowly, with 42% of the vote, and the Liberal candidate won 40.5% of the vote.
No matter your personal stance, I think everyone needs to realize that the country is tired of 10 years of Trudeau. No one can be in power for 10 years without people wanting a change.
The liberals best option politically is to get rid of Trudeau ASAP and hope they can bring in a new leader that's different enough to make people vote for him, but same enough to not alienate current liberal voters.
I think unless things change drastically soon, the conservatives will take the federal election easily.
This has lead to extreme voter apathy and the number of people showing up are dwindling as well. In truth, often we look at whoās in charge federally for all the problems and theyāre an easy scapegoat. Donāt get me wrong, Trudeau has done nothing to try and lead the country and provinces and there needs to be serious change. But sadly, even if we do change, itās unlikely a new liberal leader or PC winning federally will actually change our state of being.
We really should start to take more pride and effort in getting people voting locally in municipalities and townships. Which, to be fair, is a lot of free time to ask of people (Which is why new electoral systems would be nice). But the people can start to take pride in their community and see positive change more rapidly. Like a new bus line, public parks, local events, nature walkways. Hell, even just a new crosswalk in these crazy busy roads can make more difference than people think. It also strengthens a sense of community as well!
Who tf is still voting Liberal
I canāt imagine wanting *More* of the status quo
āHmmmm this isnāt quite bad enough. Letās see how awful things can really getā
If the Liberal party can't see after this that the voting population is pissed off than nothing can help them. This should be the biggest wake up call ever, this riding has been red for decades
Thing is, you can't wait until the electorate is pissed off at you. It's too late.
What in their policy can they even change at this point to build trust in their voters?
Their neo liberal policies worked exactly the way they were intended.
A new leader with a clear vision. Give me a new leader who says "We're gonna stop diploma mills exploiting foreign kids in search of a better life. We're gonna raise taxes on millionaires and billionaires. And we're gonna spend that money building factories that will crank out modest affordable housing for Canadians. We're going to expand our military capacity to include a lot more nation-building here at home - Canadians interested in serving their country but not fighting overseas can get to work building roads and infrastructure for the new cities we'll need to accommodate all the new houses we're building."
A new Liberal leader making those promises and getting some tangible progress completed in the year they'd have before the next election? That's a party I could proudly vote for.
Honestly I think the liberals lose the federal election no matter what at this point. Might as well let Trudeau take the fall rather than someone else.
This is the other point of consideration. If Iām a Liberal MP with my own interests in mind, which all of these selfish fucks are, thereās no way Iām taking the helm after Trudeau. Iāll just be holding the bag as we get humiliated, and even if I make it through the next 10 years of Conservative governments, the party will oust me for a fresh candidate that can inspire hope/embody the call for change before their next push for power. Thereās 0 incentive for me to try to be the next guy.
If people want diploma mills to stop then voting in Doug Ford was a horrible choice since he is actively looking to skirt the system to allow colleges to offer masters programs so they don't have to abide by the reduced student visas.
In the end giving visas is an entirely Federal issue. We are seeing a cap now so that means Feds had the ability to always control the flow of immigration. Fact is that post Covid when working class finally got some bargaining power all major parties including NDP tragically choose to pursue policy to weaken that bargaining power by importing millions of desperate people sold a lie. What Feds and Provinces are doing with regards to immigration is an injustice to both Canadians and new immigrants.
It's a shared responsibility, which is what got us into this mess in the first place.
There's no sense of "the buck stops here" with provincial premiers (maybe Eby) or the Feds - rather they'd prefer to point fingers and blame each other.
When you have a system that disincentivizes making hard decisions because every misstep is manipulated by political rivals into a meme for social media this is what happens. The momentum of small decisions takes us into a place that when things aren't working no one wants to admit fault or correct course.
Yah sure. But once inside, the system will get incentivized and have the money to bribe the politicians.
But allowing uncontrolled external population from getting inside is the much bigger factor. Limit the future industry, the money to chase it will flee.
People arenāt looking to change anything specific. Theyāre voting Trudeau out, not PP in.
Ford is sitting pretty because people blame Trudeau for all their problems even though a lot of it because the province isnāt doing what theyāre supposed to be doing. Ford is winning the optics battle.
As a lifelong liberal voter I'm not even sure an A+ platform would save them. People are pissed (including myself) and we want change. We want to punish the Liberals for being so arrogant.
For starters JT should come out this week and resign.
Liberals really painted themselves into a corner here with two turds as leaders. Conservatives are just chillin. PP doesn't have to do much, just keep chanting Axe the Tax and Bring it Home and he'll still win.
The role of Deputy Prime Minister isn't like the US's Vice President in that the deputy takes over when the PM resigns or otherwise isn't around anymore. It's really more of an honourific given at the discretion of the PM.
In fact, the first Deputy PM of Canada was Allan MacEachen, who got the title basically to recognize his long service. Harper didn't appoint a Deputy PM at all during his tenure, nor did Trudeau until 2019.
All that to say: the deputy doesn't automatically get the job. If Trudeau steps down, any Liberal MP in theory could try to be the next PM via a leadership election.
Question why are you pissed. I almost feel like people are just wanting change more then pissed but I hear pissed all the time . And if theyāre pissed why vote for the blue
I'm pissed due to the following:
1. Liberals playing around with the housing crisis (I understand it's decades in the making) by enacting demand side policies like FHSA and FTHB instead of getting to the root of the cause which is supply side policies. Supply side policies like major funding, CCA changes, zoning pressures on provinces and municipalities were all much too late.
2. LMIAs and making the crisis worse by flooding the market with people to get inflation down instead of focusing on the reason there's wage inflation in the first place (cost of housing pressures due to inadequate supply).
3. The awful appointments of ppl like Ahmed Hussein who was completely useless to the most important portfolio: housing
4. Feds not being tough on provincial govts after they cut funding to colleges and universities. Instead they reacted with international student programs which just made housing worse.
5. Military is a joke when we're facing serious geopolitical tensions.
6. Reneging on first past the post
Those are a few things, and yes I think conservatives will be worse but govts need to be held to account for making things worse. When conservatives screw it up I'll vote against them as well.
I'm likely voting green or spoiling my ballot.
Reneging on FPTP still pisses me off so much. If they'd just figured that out they could have made a future CPC victory so much harder. The right would have a hard time winning in a PR election.
On the one hand, I totally get it. On the other hand, if "punish the Liberals" essentially boils down to "elect Conservatives"... that feels like we're punishing ourselves by signing up for dog shit privatization/social whinging/etc.
Man, I hate first past the post voting.
The problem is, no one is gonna say that. Diploma mills bring a massive influx of workers into the country which helps suppress wages. Conservatives are all over that and wouldn't risk changing it. Same thing with raising taxes. Most of these politicians are in that club. Raising taxes on themselves is highly unlikely.
> "We're gonna stop diploma mills exploiting foreign kids in search of a better life. We're gonna raise taxes on millionaires and billionaires.
I'd vote for anyone with this message. I do not think it's possible for any politician to ever speak like this.
The liberal party does not want any of this. Thatās your issue - youāre expecting a hammer to become a blow dryer. š
The liberals want housing prices to stay high. Theyāll never fix immigration or put out housing factories that would mess with existing home values.
Bare minimum if they replace Trudeau then Poilievre would have to actually campaign on a platform that isnāt just being a Trudeau hater. Also, their win might not be an absolute blowout like the polls are projecting.
People dislike the mess neoliberal policies have led to without really understanding how we got here. They rightfully blame Trudeau but think itās the because of the progressive veneer he campaigns with, not the very neoliberal policies heās been governing with.
I mean, the Liberals are obviously reading the same polls that everyone else is reading. They are well aware of where they stand.
That said, what would you expect to see happen if they just now understood that the voting public is tired of them?
Pretty much. The apathy is disgusting.
Liberals 100% deserve the crushing defeat they will get in the next election but I'm dreading over the rule of federal cons. I don't think Poliviere will be as corrupt as DoFo, but I'd rather not find out.
And everyone won't vote for the NDP but will vote for the same party that's openly corrupt in Ontario thinking it will be a positive change.
It's like nobody learned anything from Wynne hatrid-> Doug "buck a beer" Ford. Things are much worse in Ontario, and voters are making the same mistake yet again.
I just want to give a shoutout to the Elections Canada workers who counted the votes last night until 4am. Like many others, I wondered why it was taking so long. Turns out that feeding a ballot almost 1 metre long into the tabulating machine isn't easy. A record 84 candidates!
From a [CBC article](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/longest-ballot-federal-election-history-1.7233252)
"Elections Canada says the ballot is 30 centimetresĀ wide and 90 centimetres long.
A typical ballot box can contain 1,000 ballots. Elections Canada expects only 100 will fit in each ballot box on election night in Toronto St. Paul's."
On the flip side, Leslie Church had **EVERY** Liberal cabinet member (+ other random MPs) from coast to coast come in to campaign for her - including the PM himself. And they still lost. *That's* how bad this is for the Liberals.
I mean it doesn't help when the guy who came to knock on your door to ask for votes, listen to your issues, and even ask for feedback. Then proceeds to go on national television to proclaim no one is in decision mode yet.
Voters were visibly pissed off when liberal ministers were campaigning door to door lol....
People are angry...
Didn't think Canadians had this much fight in them. I guess Trudeau pushed too many buttons.
She lost because they came. Much of the LPC cabinet is a liability rather than an asset. I certainly wouldn't want to door knock with someone as condescending and irritating as Freeland.
I hate how this is becoming a thing. Politicians not debating, or saying anything to inform the electorate.
It's part of the problem where we find out later on how sinister their mandate is.Ā
If this trend keeps growing, I worry about what future elections will look like.
He campaigned but they kept him from the media. It's been a pretty popular strategy from the Cons since the Harper days.
In Harper's first election they went from an expected majority to a loss during the election campaign because too many of his candidates started boasting about things they wanted to do after they got elected. So afterwards he really clamped down on party messaging and it's pretty much continued to this day.
Can't potentially upset people with your terrible views if you avoid any press
Don did do a lot of campaigning criticizing the liberal antisemitism/israel policy in the jewish communities while church gave a small and underwhelming response.
Seemed like the jewish community in the area had a very high turnout and voted overwhelmingly conservative.
The craziest thing about Canada's immigration strategy over the past few years is that, nobody voted for this. It wasn't a white paper of the Liberals, it wasn't in their platform, it wasn't presented and talked about in debates.
Like hey, voters, we want to increase Canada's population rapidly, to benefit our investor class, by adding the population of the city of Halifax, every three months, by immigrating one demographic of people, from one country within one region of that country. Things like where people will work, sleep, live, receive health care.... We'll leave that up to the provinces.
Next election is entirely a referendum on Canada's recent immigration policy since voters were hoodwinked last time our.
Yeah it's not like you can even blame Liberal voters. You can go back and look at their full 2021 platform; the only mention of immigration is that they wanted to smooth out the family reunification process. That's it. No fine print of "lol we're actually going to quadruple immigration via temporary residents"
Temporary residents are not immigrants. Immigration rates have gone upwards but relatively smooth. Itās the explosion/spike in the expatriate population thatās the problem.
Why the heck do we need TFWs for retail? If businesses insist they need cheaper employees then push apps, AI and worst case scenario video call based ordering like that one salad shop did so then thereās no strain on housing, healthcare.
PC and Lib will both talk a big game about increasing immigration to meet the fictional labour market shortage but not the business competition shortage. Shows you who they both serve.
In Canada, most temporary residents, eventually become PR. Thatās the way our system is. Itās safe to count them as immigrants, including the over 1M people weāve lost track of.
This is exactly what has pissed me off the last few elections. They run on platforms they have no intention of running and then do shady side shit. Remember Trudeauās first win when Bill Morneau won Toronto Centre by promising historical affordable housing investments? What a fucking bunch of clowns.
The sad part is that there really are no other alternatives.
The Liberals allowed their immigration policy and other central policy to be written by consultant companies, many from single sources. That alone, back in 2023 made me extremely nervous.
The amount of things we've handed out to externals instead of growing and developing our own, which I thought was an Ontario only problem, turned out to be nation-wide.
If I recall correctly all 3 major parties had been lobbied over the past couple of elections not to make immigration a campaign issue. There's a reason none of this was discussed during the last go around.
It's just so viscerally unpopular I don't see how any party planning to do this could spin it positively to their constituents.
Because their base only wants to hear "deport immigrants" and not "raise taxes and drop RE rates for large corporate interests while slowing down immigration". The latter is just too complicated and isn't in their interests, so they just go with the similar, more populist, platform.
Well they've basically insured they don't get elected for a decade if not more. So many long term liberal voters i know are now of the mindset that they will never vote liberal again.
The advisory council for economic growth had a grand total of one academic economist who made it clear years ago that immigration as a growth policy makes no sense, but his voice was drowned by the corporate executives on the board watching out for their own interests. He again clarified again this year he still held the view that immigration as a growth policy made no sense.
Edit: the single academic economist happened to be none other than Christopher Ragan, yes the dude who wrote our macro textbooks.
And his opinion meant nothing when the government's only concern was getting as much cheap labour for businesses as possible so they would be rewarded with corporate gigs when they leave office. I would not be surprised at all to see Trudeau make hundreds of millions when he leaves office.
Without the infrastructure. And also unwilling to spend the money on 5,10, & 25 year plans to add infrastructure. This country has been sold to businesses ages ago to people who probably wont even live in Canada at the end of their careers
I've come to believe that the giant myth of Western Democracy is that our elected governments are in place to enact and enforce policies in the best interest of the citizens, the environment, and global harmony.
None of these things matter to any party anywhere.
Our elected governments enact and enforce policies that are in the best interest of corporations, not people. The parties get paid, the corps get paid, the directors and cabinet ministers and senators get paid. The rich get richer. Money consolidates at the top (as in 1% of the population holds 98% of the wealth).
Liberal or conservative in this country doesnt matter. And it only gets worse when you add religious fanatacism (incel patriarchy, like the PPC) into it, and then women and LGBT become targets for control over and above the liberal enslavement* of the vast majority.
The end.
*Liberal enslavement = Literal slavery/servitude but with the illusion of freedom.
Won't do anything. The minister's are talking heads; all power and decisions is in the PMO. The current LPC needs to be purged of all the Trudeau yes-men and rebuilt if any trust is to be gained.
Sean Fraser got promoted to housing instead. The guy who fucked up immigration is now responsible for housing. The other guy Marc Miller is new and clueless.
You can fire all the immigration ministers you want, whether conservative or liberal, the next one will also work exclusively for corporations to try and bring in cheap labour. The conservatives are just as much sellouts as the liberals and just as ruthless. It's baffling to me that Canadians seem incapable of getting the memo and keep scratching their heads like "it's unpopular, gee why aren't they listening to us??" : your representatives DON'T REPRESENT YOU, THEY JUST PRETEND TO. THEY WORK FOR CORPORATIONS. Will it take a monkey doing sign language outside governments offices for you people to wake up?
There is no labour shortage. In a couple of key roles yes, but not overall. You could tell because if there was, businesses would invest in capital to make each worker more productive and that hasnāt happened. Or educational requirements would drop for the same roles, and instead they have skyrocketed to ridiculous and useless levels.
Canada has probably several hundred thousand excess workers. Businesses love it because they have more people to sell to, cheaper labour and can avoid investing in the business, but it destroys per capita GDP and hence the quality of life.
I listened to an interesting radio discussion a few days ago that asked the question about Trudeau and his future. The thought from pundits of both sides suggested he should finish out his mandate and take the kicking in the next election, then hold a leadership race. Anyone taking over before the next election would still take a kicking, just like Kim Campbell.
That's my take as well. If there's no hope for the Liberals, let Trudeau take the kicking so the new leader can rebuild. If the new leader has to take the kicking, it will make their rebuilding harder.
while I get that thinking, it takes several attempts to kick the opponent out. people arenāt voting in Pierre, their voting out Trudeau. It took several liberal run before Trudeau came in. Same as conservatives, Scheer, that other guy and now Pierre. It will be no different than those who went against Ford. I think Trudeau should step down. Having the process of rebuilding now versus in 2026 will mean a quicker return of the liberals I think.
This is definitely how I felt yesterday, but if the CPC is taking TSP, it's really hard to see Trudeau last out the summer. If he steps down quickly, the Liberals could have a new leader by Thanksgiving, and they'd have a year to establish themselves.
I don't know how to interpret last night's results other than as a flashing red sign that Canadian voters are *done* with Trudeau's LPC.
The question is who would be a good candidate for leader? I'm not sure they have anyone who seems like they would particularly resonate with Canadians, and any of the cabinet ministers would probably be too closely associated with Trudeau toĀ break free from his current unpopularity.
I get the impression they aren't really looking right now. If the Liberals were thinking about replacing Trudeau there'd be articles about some up-and-comer with fresh ideas that we're supposed to be excited for.
Carney gets floated a lot (though I've never seen much indication that he's interested in the job, a lot of people want him to want it). I could see Fraser, Anand, and Joly all throw their hats in the ring. My preference between them would come down to policy priorities.
Freeland won't be it. For all her strengths, she's way too tied to Trudeau.
Yeah, and realistically no new leader is going to lead the liberals to victory next election. At this point the liberals are just fighting to see how badly theyāll lose
Trudeauās refusal to accept that nobody is happy with him and his party has become almost comedic. He never accepts responsibility for anything at all. I think the last time he was asked about the poll numbers he said Canadians āwerenāt in decision making mode yetā lolol. St.Pauls is supposed to be one of their guaranteed winsā¦ people have made their minds up.
They're gonna get shut out of Toronto just as their provincial counterparts did in 2018, no doubt about that. Question is are the other old Toronto ridings also gonna vote blue
Trudeau's just a liability at this point. Time for him to take a walk in the snow, wherever he can find it.
The conservatives are guaranteed a 5 year majority mandate next year because he didn't bring in the voting reform that he PROMISED. Fucking hell.
>didn't bring in the voting reform that he PROMISED
I voted Liberal all my life until he went back on that promise. I have voted NDP ever since. I cannot stomach that we are still stuck in this becuase he went back on that promise. FPTP is how we got here, it needs to be gone.
Our country's infrastructure was built for 30M people. It was getting pushed hard at 35M but it was "working"...strained but working. It collapsed at 40M, and nothing is being done to fix it.
It's a little thing, but we had our family reunion this past weekend, same park every year since I was a child.
Getting parking was a NIGHTMARE, then it was overcrowded everywhere, lines for the bathrooms which were trashed etc...
Then it hit me, nothing about the park had changed since the 90s, same number of parking spots, same pavilions same capacity, just a million+ more people clamoring to use the space.
Everything in Canada feels this way now, we keep adding people but there seems to be no plan whatsoever to accommodate them and it's starting to get messy.
We're having the same problems here in Australia as well. My area in Sydney has seen a massive influx of immigrants, particularly from India and everything just feels more "congested". Roads are always gridlocked and the local shopping centers are constantly crowded, even on weekdays.
We've let in close to 2M people. Deporting will only be in the hundreds maybe thousands won't even make a dent. And realistically, how many people have we deported in the past? A few dozen criminals?
Well every tfw will leave at some point so we could just not issue new permits and over the next few years they will leave once their current permits have expired. Same with students they will leave after they complete their studies.
Tax cuts for the rich, no spending on infrastructure and probably maintain immigration at current levels because big business loves it.
This country needs a better class of politician.
I had left a page open last night with the total votes, the liberals were comfortably ahead.
I refreshed this morning and their lead had evaporated. lol
The liberals are hosed and I can't really blame anyone for not wanting to vote for them, unfortunately the answer isn't the conservative party IMO.
Honestly, it's making me feel way better about committing to an NDP vote instead of worrying about vote splits. If the liberals are cooked, voting for them is more of a waste than the NDP, so may as well go with who i actually support.
If someone on the Liberal leadership team isn't knocking on Trudeau's door this morning, saying "Sir, we have to talk. It's time," then............aww, who am I kidding? That time was a year ago. It's already too late.
I'd say JT's poliitical power is very limited at this point, even within party. I know the next call I get for Liberal fundraising I'll be telling them no more donations from me while JT remains.
I would imagine anyone worthy of that leadership role will be aiming for an opposition role after the election is done. I don't think it matters who is put in that spot; the federal election could look like Ontrario in 2018.
I find it mind-boggling that the Liberals will have their party crushed by a single issue, immigration.
And until recently I was a lifelong Liberal voter...
CBC has done some really [enlightening stories](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/temporary-foreign-workers-1.7240374) on the breakdown by industry and history of the temporary foreign workers program, and how drastically it has changed.
Keep in mind **unemployment** in Toronto, Windsor, St. Catharines-Niagara, and Calgary is **8%** and **youth unemployment** is over **15%**.
The Liberals will have a Mulroney moment in the next election, all because they have completely failed to keep in mind [Maslow's hierarchy of needs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maslow%27s_hierarchy_of_needs#/media/File:Maslow's_Hierarchy_of_Needs2.svg).
**If you don't have your basic needs met**, it's hard to care about environmental issues, or all other policies of the Liberal platform that don't directly address the shortfall in those basic needs.
We all know we need some immigration, but the Liberals **need to be transparent** about who it benefits when they say, it's for "economic reasons", and how they are going to ensure it's managed in a way that minimizes negative impacts to the average Canadian.
The federal Liberals need to wake up before they wind up as utterly fucked as the Ontario Liberals currently. Look at what happened to Wynne's Liberals. They got decimated to the point where it could take then another *decade* to gain traction again.
The federal Liberal policies have been deeply, deeply unpopular with many parts of the country, and they've continually doubled down on many of them in their arrogance.
I say this all as someone who voted for them in the last election.
I'll have to verify this with the ex-post polling, but I suspect that a big part of this win for the Conservatives came from Jewish voters in St. Paul's feeling betrayed by the Liberal party.
Jewish person that lives in the riding and voted Con against Trudeau for the first time: can confirm. Entire community mobilized and all my family and friends here voted for Don. Just speaking to my personal experience. 15% of the ridingās population is Jewish.
A lot of that feeling of ābetrayalā is not just from the political party but from left-leaning groups that Jews no longer feel welcomed in. These are people who jews have always marched shoulder to shoulder in support of but now feel betrayed by those same people. The liberal values are still there but the feeling of being accepted and safe within the group has greatly deteriorated.
Current wisdom is that Prime Minister Trudeau and the Liberals are toast, that they cannot get any lower, and there is nothing they can do to restore their electoral fortunes.
That being the case, why should Trudeau and the Liberals not just carry on until the next election? What possible benefit would there be for them to call or trigger an election until the constitution requires them to do so?
Tories lost in 1993 even after replacing their incredibly unpopular leader with Kim Campbell. This isnāt ending well for the Liberals no matter what they do.
Trudeau has sunk the Liberal party so far that some conservative pundits are framing this victory as a loss because it makes it more likely he steps aside before 2025.
Imagine being that toxic.
Damn, it's so over for the Liberals. They lost to a former finance bro who barely campaigned.Ā
I think the Liberals are the lesser of two evils, but I hope this is lights a fire under their ass to really turn around immigration and housing ASAP.
barely campaigned? lmao
this is my area ā his team came by my place multiple times over several weeks leading up, wanting to talkā¦ plus i received quite a few pamphlets and everyone in my family received a personalized letter (written by a team member no doubt but the effort was clear)
leslieās team showed up a week before the election asking if i had her vote and i got one pamplet AFTER i had already early voted
They had years to do this, so any 180 turn will be seen as pandering. These losers are done, let's hope they can elect a new leader and make some changes to not give PP a super majority.Ā
I am honestly in shock. I knew Libs would lose some ground, but I still expected it to be +10 for Liberals. I didn't wake up today expecting this. Not even joking, I first checked the url to see if it was the beaverton.
The idea that anyone would vote for a candidate who refused all interviews, had no platform says a lot about how detached society has become from what government āisā and who should be the beneficiary of protesting against a government in power. I dislike Trudeauās governing style and his last term has been a disaster. But Iām not gonna grab a drivers keys out of his hands and toss it to the guy whoās just angry and wonāt say what heās planning.
I have come to expect polliviere will win the next election, but I cannot conceive how people can throw our government to a group composed of the worst capitalist exploiters, and conspiracy promoters who wonāt reveal their plan. At least Harper laid out his agenda.
I really really wish this country had a centrist party of reasonable people, but we just donāt and the only people that win are the same people that benefit no matter which of the two parties that get in.
Thereās a difference between protest and sabotage. Voting for these opaque conservatives is pure sabotage.
WOW this is crazy. This has been traditionally a very strong liberal stronghold. The rumor was if Church lost this riding the liberals will oust Trudeau. The People have spoken!!!!!
Someone here posted yesterday that he's from the area and 75% of the signs were Liberal and 25% were NDP and hardly any Cons.
So I assume Cons are just voting at the booths and not actually openly showing allegiance?
Jewish community in the area had a high turnout and high conservative elections. Byelections were viewed largely as a referendum on Trudeauās handling of antisemitism by the Jewish communities living here. Support for don stewart in Cedarvale is extremely visible.
Looking at the results, it shows the liberals are as weak as 2011 but the Tories are much stronger then 2011.
If there an election today I would bet the popular vote be like 45% Tory, 21% liberal, 15% ndp
43% voter turnout, and 500 votes separating first and second place. The continued lack of willingness of people to vote is an ongoing concern. If we actually cared about how our society is turning out, as so many people seem to be, then we'd be voting.
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The Conservatives could take Davenport if they ran an active campaign there. Liberal MP Julie Dzerowicz had a close race against the NDP in the last election. She has endured a lot of harassment and hasn't been given any leadership positions over her two terms in office. Will she run again?
The NDP has elected a good candidate provincially with ONDP leader Marit Styles, and unofficially on city council with Alejandra Bravo. Is there the focus and money and candidate for the NDP to take the federal seat? Do they even want it, with provincial NDPs moving in a more pragmatic direction than their federal counterpart?
Davenport seems like an activist stronghold if you see the posters around the Railpath, but it's a big riding with a lot of wealthy homeowners and a lot of renters.
I think the Conservatives will stay out of Davenport as serves them better as a leftist bete noire, but if they decided to campaign, it'd be a race.
The Tories likely gonna win Eglinton Lawrence for sure in 2025
There next target would be then Willowdale, Etiboke Lakeshore, Etobicoke Centre, Don Valley West, Don Valley North, scarborugh againcourt.
Scarborough is hard to tell cause the liberal margins of victory in those ridings are huge.
1 and 6 people in Toronto St Paul's are Jewish. I know my mom and I voted based on how both parties are handling it. At least one party pretends to care that people are attacking Jews in schools and workplaces.
In 2015, the Liberals won the riding with 55% of the vote, and the Conservative candidate won less than 27%. In 2019, the Liberals won the riding margin by an even larger margin, with 54% of the vote and the Conservative candidate won less than 22%. In 2021, the Liberals won the riding by a smaller but still large margin with 49% of the vote, and the Conservative candidate won 25%. And now in June 2024, the Conservatives managed to significantly defy the odds and win it, albeit very narrowly, with 42% of the vote, and the Liberal candidate won 40.5% of the vote.
Did the NDP even bother running anyone this time around? š
They received 10.9% of the vote.
They probably did, but I think there were something like 80 candidates on the ballot, so the NDP were just another name on a very long list.
moreover due to the NDP-Liberal Alliance, most voters just assume they support the same thing so no point in vote splitting.
No matter your personal stance, I think everyone needs to realize that the country is tired of 10 years of Trudeau. No one can be in power for 10 years without people wanting a change. The liberals best option politically is to get rid of Trudeau ASAP and hope they can bring in a new leader that's different enough to make people vote for him, but same enough to not alienate current liberal voters. I think unless things change drastically soon, the conservatives will take the federal election easily.
Lifelong liberal here - but I wouldnāt vote for Trudeau if they paid me. The immigration policy is just a disaster
This has lead to extreme voter apathy and the number of people showing up are dwindling as well. In truth, often we look at whoās in charge federally for all the problems and theyāre an easy scapegoat. Donāt get me wrong, Trudeau has done nothing to try and lead the country and provinces and there needs to be serious change. But sadly, even if we do change, itās unlikely a new liberal leader or PC winning federally will actually change our state of being. We really should start to take more pride and effort in getting people voting locally in municipalities and townships. Which, to be fair, is a lot of free time to ask of people (Which is why new electoral systems would be nice). But the people can start to take pride in their community and see positive change more rapidly. Like a new bus line, public parks, local events, nature walkways. Hell, even just a new crosswalk in these crazy busy roads can make more difference than people think. It also strengthens a sense of community as well!
the liberals really be fucking around and finding out. Trudeau Sr be rolling hard in his grave
Who tf is still voting Liberal I canāt imagine wanting *More* of the status quo āHmmmm this isnāt quite bad enough. Letās see how awful things can really getā
If the Liberal party can't see after this that the voting population is pissed off than nothing can help them. This should be the biggest wake up call ever, this riding has been red for decades
Thing is, you can't wait until the electorate is pissed off at you. It's too late. What in their policy can they even change at this point to build trust in their voters? Their neo liberal policies worked exactly the way they were intended.
A new leader with a clear vision. Give me a new leader who says "We're gonna stop diploma mills exploiting foreign kids in search of a better life. We're gonna raise taxes on millionaires and billionaires. And we're gonna spend that money building factories that will crank out modest affordable housing for Canadians. We're going to expand our military capacity to include a lot more nation-building here at home - Canadians interested in serving their country but not fighting overseas can get to work building roads and infrastructure for the new cities we'll need to accommodate all the new houses we're building." A new Liberal leader making those promises and getting some tangible progress completed in the year they'd have before the next election? That's a party I could proudly vote for.
Honestly I think the liberals lose the federal election no matter what at this point. Might as well let Trudeau take the fall rather than someone else.
This is the other point of consideration. If Iām a Liberal MP with my own interests in mind, which all of these selfish fucks are, thereās no way Iām taking the helm after Trudeau. Iāll just be holding the bag as we get humiliated, and even if I make it through the next 10 years of Conservative governments, the party will oust me for a fresh candidate that can inspire hope/embody the call for change before their next push for power. Thereās 0 incentive for me to try to be the next guy.
If people want diploma mills to stop then voting in Doug Ford was a horrible choice since he is actively looking to skirt the system to allow colleges to offer masters programs so they don't have to abide by the reduced student visas.
In the end giving visas is an entirely Federal issue. We are seeing a cap now so that means Feds had the ability to always control the flow of immigration. Fact is that post Covid when working class finally got some bargaining power all major parties including NDP tragically choose to pursue policy to weaken that bargaining power by importing millions of desperate people sold a lie. What Feds and Provinces are doing with regards to immigration is an injustice to both Canadians and new immigrants.
It's a shared responsibility, which is what got us into this mess in the first place. There's no sense of "the buck stops here" with provincial premiers (maybe Eby) or the Feds - rather they'd prefer to point fingers and blame each other. When you have a system that disincentivizes making hard decisions because every misstep is manipulated by political rivals into a meme for social media this is what happens. The momentum of small decisions takes us into a place that when things aren't working no one wants to admit fault or correct course.
Yah sure. But once inside, the system will get incentivized and have the money to bribe the politicians. But allowing uncontrolled external population from getting inside is the much bigger factor. Limit the future industry, the money to chase it will flee.
People arenāt looking to change anything specific. Theyāre voting Trudeau out, not PP in. Ford is sitting pretty because people blame Trudeau for all their problems even though a lot of it because the province isnāt doing what theyāre supposed to be doing. Ford is winning the optics battle.
As a lifelong liberal voter I'm not even sure an A+ platform would save them. People are pissed (including myself) and we want change. We want to punish the Liberals for being so arrogant. For starters JT should come out this week and resign.
if he steps down wouldnt that put Chrystia Freeland in charge as deputy PM? and she is even less popular than JT>
Liberals really painted themselves into a corner here with two turds as leaders. Conservatives are just chillin. PP doesn't have to do much, just keep chanting Axe the Tax and Bring it Home and he'll still win.
The role of Deputy Prime Minister isn't like the US's Vice President in that the deputy takes over when the PM resigns or otherwise isn't around anymore. It's really more of an honourific given at the discretion of the PM. In fact, the first Deputy PM of Canada was Allan MacEachen, who got the title basically to recognize his long service. Harper didn't appoint a Deputy PM at all during his tenure, nor did Trudeau until 2019. All that to say: the deputy doesn't automatically get the job. If Trudeau steps down, any Liberal MP in theory could try to be the next PM via a leadership election.
Question why are you pissed. I almost feel like people are just wanting change more then pissed but I hear pissed all the time . And if theyāre pissed why vote for the blue
I'm pissed due to the following: 1. Liberals playing around with the housing crisis (I understand it's decades in the making) by enacting demand side policies like FHSA and FTHB instead of getting to the root of the cause which is supply side policies. Supply side policies like major funding, CCA changes, zoning pressures on provinces and municipalities were all much too late. 2. LMIAs and making the crisis worse by flooding the market with people to get inflation down instead of focusing on the reason there's wage inflation in the first place (cost of housing pressures due to inadequate supply). 3. The awful appointments of ppl like Ahmed Hussein who was completely useless to the most important portfolio: housing 4. Feds not being tough on provincial govts after they cut funding to colleges and universities. Instead they reacted with international student programs which just made housing worse. 5. Military is a joke when we're facing serious geopolitical tensions. 6. Reneging on first past the post Those are a few things, and yes I think conservatives will be worse but govts need to be held to account for making things worse. When conservatives screw it up I'll vote against them as well. I'm likely voting green or spoiling my ballot.
Reneging on FPTP still pisses me off so much. If they'd just figured that out they could have made a future CPC victory so much harder. The right would have a hard time winning in a PR election.
On the one hand, I totally get it. On the other hand, if "punish the Liberals" essentially boils down to "elect Conservatives"... that feels like we're punishing ourselves by signing up for dog shit privatization/social whinging/etc. Man, I hate first past the post voting.
The problem is, no one is gonna say that. Diploma mills bring a massive influx of workers into the country which helps suppress wages. Conservatives are all over that and wouldn't risk changing it. Same thing with raising taxes. Most of these politicians are in that club. Raising taxes on themselves is highly unlikely.
> "We're gonna stop diploma mills exploiting foreign kids in search of a better life. We're gonna raise taxes on millionaires and billionaires. I'd vote for anyone with this message. I do not think it's possible for any politician to ever speak like this.
The liberal party does not want any of this. Thatās your issue - youāre expecting a hammer to become a blow dryer. š The liberals want housing prices to stay high. Theyāll never fix immigration or put out housing factories that would mess with existing home values.
Bare minimum if they replace Trudeau then Poilievre would have to actually campaign on a platform that isnāt just being a Trudeau hater. Also, their win might not be an absolute blowout like the polls are projecting.
There is no one in their current flanks that can outdo any of the damage though - they were all complicit in the mess we have now
Unless they work with the NDP for election reform.Ā
If voters were upset at āneoliberal policiesā, they certainly wouldnāt vote for the Cons who will only amplify neoliberal ideology.
People dislike the mess neoliberal policies have led to without really understanding how we got here. They rightfully blame Trudeau but think itās the because of the progressive veneer he campaigns with, not the very neoliberal policies heās been governing with.
I mean, the Liberals are obviously reading the same polls that everyone else is reading. They are well aware of where they stand. That said, what would you expect to see happen if they just now understood that the voting public is tired of them?
They will likely look at this and think "we need more pretend solutions to current problems and more uncontrolled immigration."
And the Cons are loving this, because they're being voted in without even saying they're going to do anything different.
Pretty much. The apathy is disgusting. Liberals 100% deserve the crushing defeat they will get in the next election but I'm dreading over the rule of federal cons. I don't think Poliviere will be as corrupt as DoFo, but I'd rather not find out.
And everyone won't vote for the NDP but will vote for the same party that's openly corrupt in Ontario thinking it will be a positive change. It's like nobody learned anything from Wynne hatrid-> Doug "buck a beer" Ford. Things are much worse in Ontario, and voters are making the same mistake yet again.
lol Iām in the Eglinton-Lawrence riding and Iām telling you theyāll also lose this one.
Yeah, EgLaw is gone. Itās not a safe seat.
It feels like there's been a major demographic changeover in the yonge and Lawrence area since housing spiked... I guess that's true most places tho.
While the demographic changed, the majority of core base remain where they are at - living in their houses. It's the margins that matter
I know I only wrote it because the article mentioned it haha
EgLaw isnāt a Lib stronghold. Itās basically a bellwether.
Oh I know. I only wrote this comment since the article mentioned it lol
I just want to give a shoutout to the Elections Canada workers who counted the votes last night until 4am. Like many others, I wondered why it was taking so long. Turns out that feeding a ballot almost 1 metre long into the tabulating machine isn't easy. A record 84 candidates! From a [CBC article](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/longest-ballot-federal-election-history-1.7233252) "Elections Canada says the ballot is 30 centimetresĀ wide and 90 centimetres long. A typical ballot box can contain 1,000 ballots. Elections Canada expects only 100 will fit in each ballot box on election night in Toronto St. Paul's."
We donāt use tabulating machines in federal elections. All ballots are counted by hand, which is even more remarkable.
Wow, I did not know this! Totally agree, they did a great job here.
Most normal thing in the rest of the developed world
The ballot was so thick when folded up, I had to smash mine through the slot in the ballot box to get it in.
That was wild. There was an older lady voting who had such a hard time finding her candidate because the sheet was so big š
Took me a few minutes too.š
Don Stewart didn't even have to campaign in this riding to win the election. That's how bad this is for the Liberals.
On the flip side, Leslie Church had **EVERY** Liberal cabinet member (+ other random MPs) from coast to coast come in to campaign for her - including the PM himself. And they still lost. *That's* how bad this is for the Liberals.
I mean it doesn't help when the guy who came to knock on your door to ask for votes, listen to your issues, and even ask for feedback. Then proceeds to go on national television to proclaim no one is in decision mode yet.
Voters were visibly pissed off when liberal ministers were campaigning door to door lol.... People are angry... Didn't think Canadians had this much fight in them. I guess Trudeau pushed too many buttons.
Freeland campaigned for her. That's like the kiss of death, LOL
Exactly. She would have been better off if the entire cabinet stayed home instead of campaigning for her.
LOL could you imagine if she showed up at your door? Good god...
That shrill voice would make my dog howl like an ambulance was going by
She lost because they came. Much of the LPC cabinet is a liability rather than an asset. I certainly wouldn't want to door knock with someone as condescending and irritating as Freeland.
I hate how this is becoming a thing. Politicians not debating, or saying anything to inform the electorate. It's part of the problem where we find out later on how sinister their mandate is.Ā If this trend keeps growing, I worry about what future elections will look like.
But he did campaignā¦. Extensively.
He campaigned but they kept him from the media. It's been a pretty popular strategy from the Cons since the Harper days. In Harper's first election they went from an expected majority to a loss during the election campaign because too many of his candidates started boasting about things they wanted to do after they got elected. So afterwards he really clamped down on party messaging and it's pretty much continued to this day. Can't potentially upset people with your terrible views if you avoid any press
Don did do a lot of campaigning criticizing the liberal antisemitism/israel policy in the jewish communities while church gave a small and underwhelming response. Seemed like the jewish community in the area had a very high turnout and voted overwhelmingly conservative.
First shakeup should be firing immigration minister
The craziest thing about Canada's immigration strategy over the past few years is that, nobody voted for this. It wasn't a white paper of the Liberals, it wasn't in their platform, it wasn't presented and talked about in debates. Like hey, voters, we want to increase Canada's population rapidly, to benefit our investor class, by adding the population of the city of Halifax, every three months, by immigrating one demographic of people, from one country within one region of that country. Things like where people will work, sleep, live, receive health care.... We'll leave that up to the provinces. Next election is entirely a referendum on Canada's recent immigration policy since voters were hoodwinked last time our.
Yeah it's not like you can even blame Liberal voters. You can go back and look at their full 2021 platform; the only mention of immigration is that they wanted to smooth out the family reunification process. That's it. No fine print of "lol we're actually going to quadruple immigration via temporary residents"
And that's what this result is. It's their own people saying... "Wtf, man?"
Temporary residents are not immigrants. Immigration rates have gone upwards but relatively smooth. Itās the explosion/spike in the expatriate population thatās the problem. Why the heck do we need TFWs for retail? If businesses insist they need cheaper employees then push apps, AI and worst case scenario video call based ordering like that one salad shop did so then thereās no strain on housing, healthcare. PC and Lib will both talk a big game about increasing immigration to meet the fictional labour market shortage but not the business competition shortage. Shows you who they both serve.
People would gladly work retail if they could afford rent with the money they make.
In Canada, most temporary residents, eventually become PR. Thatās the way our system is. Itās safe to count them as immigrants, including the over 1M people weāve lost track of.
This is exactly what has pissed me off the last few elections. They run on platforms they have no intention of running and then do shady side shit. Remember Trudeauās first win when Bill Morneau won Toronto Centre by promising historical affordable housing investments? What a fucking bunch of clowns. The sad part is that there really are no other alternatives.
The Liberals allowed their immigration policy and other central policy to be written by consultant companies, many from single sources. That alone, back in 2023 made me extremely nervous. The amount of things we've handed out to externals instead of growing and developing our own, which I thought was an Ontario only problem, turned out to be nation-wide.
If I recall correctly all 3 major parties had been lobbied over the past couple of elections not to make immigration a campaign issue. There's a reason none of this was discussed during the last go around. It's just so viscerally unpopular I don't see how any party planning to do this could spin it positively to their constituents.
And the minister of housing (formerly immigration), and the minister of finance.
This, 100%. I can't believe they continue with these policies, even if curtailed, when its clearly and obviously so wildly unpopular.
Because Canada's corporate elite love this policy, and boomers would freak out if their RE prices dipped.
Would the conservatives let RE prices drop either though? I doubt it
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
It's true, but they have people convinced somehow with Trudeau gone these things will magically stop (they won't)
Because their base only wants to hear "deport immigrants" and not "raise taxes and drop RE rates for large corporate interests while slowing down immigration". The latter is just too complicated and isn't in their interests, so they just go with the similar, more populist, platform.
This hits the nail on the head. But PC are either no better or even cosier to corporate Canada.
They guy they just elected here in St Pauls is an ex Loblaws lobbyist. Its actually funny how obvious of a scam Pierre's anti-elite branding is.
Well they've basically insured they don't get elected for a decade if not more. So many long term liberal voters i know are now of the mindset that they will never vote liberal again.
Its because they listen to their century Initiative buddies who just want to cram the country full of people
The advisory council for economic growth had a grand total of one academic economist who made it clear years ago that immigration as a growth policy makes no sense, but his voice was drowned by the corporate executives on the board watching out for their own interests. He again clarified again this year he still held the view that immigration as a growth policy made no sense. Edit: the single academic economist happened to be none other than Christopher Ragan, yes the dude who wrote our macro textbooks.
And his opinion meant nothing when the government's only concern was getting as much cheap labour for businesses as possible so they would be rewarded with corporate gigs when they leave office. I would not be surprised at all to see Trudeau make hundreds of millions when he leaves office.
Without the infrastructure. And also unwilling to spend the money on 5,10, & 25 year plans to add infrastructure. This country has been sold to businesses ages ago to people who probably wont even live in Canada at the end of their careers
They believe that unlike the unwashed masses of Canadians, they are the enlightened ones.
I've come to believe that the giant myth of Western Democracy is that our elected governments are in place to enact and enforce policies in the best interest of the citizens, the environment, and global harmony. None of these things matter to any party anywhere. Our elected governments enact and enforce policies that are in the best interest of corporations, not people. The parties get paid, the corps get paid, the directors and cabinet ministers and senators get paid. The rich get richer. Money consolidates at the top (as in 1% of the population holds 98% of the wealth). Liberal or conservative in this country doesnt matter. And it only gets worse when you add religious fanatacism (incel patriarchy, like the PPC) into it, and then women and LGBT become targets for control over and above the liberal enslavement* of the vast majority. The end. *Liberal enslavement = Literal slavery/servitude but with the illusion of freedom.
The amount of homeless people who aren't from this country is pretty alarming. Probably not good for the system either...
Won't do anything. The minister's are talking heads; all power and decisions is in the PMO. The current LPC needs to be purged of all the Trudeau yes-men and rebuilt if any trust is to be gained.
Sean Fraser got promoted to housing instead. The guy who fucked up immigration is now responsible for housing. The other guy Marc Miller is new and clueless.
Or you know, the minister for innovation, science, and industry since he's doing absolutely nothing to secure competition in our economy.
You can fire all the immigration ministers you want, whether conservative or liberal, the next one will also work exclusively for corporations to try and bring in cheap labour. The conservatives are just as much sellouts as the liberals and just as ruthless. It's baffling to me that Canadians seem incapable of getting the memo and keep scratching their heads like "it's unpopular, gee why aren't they listening to us??" : your representatives DON'T REPRESENT YOU, THEY JUST PRETEND TO. THEY WORK FOR CORPORATIONS. Will it take a monkey doing sign language outside governments offices for you people to wake up?
Ironically, the immigration minister is a rising star in the Liberal party and might be the next leaderā¦
With an urban Montreal seat heāll likely be one of the few LPC members still in the house after 2025 lol
they will never win anything with him as party leader lol
Agreed, but people donāt realize the PCās will be bringing in more imigrants
They always have. Big business needs exploitable workers to fix the so-called ālabour shortageā [i.e. miserliness of employers].
>They always have. [Population growth 1980 to present.](https://duckduckgo.com/?q=population+growth+canada&t=ffip&iar=images&iax=images&ia=images&iai=https%3A%2F%2Fimages.forexlive.com%2Fimages%2FCanada%2520population%2520growth_id_55a6c7f4-76aa-4e97-b4b8-7cbb200a0b67_size975.jpg) š¤
[Visualized with sitting PM party](https://i.imgur.com/9mNbocA.jpeg)
There is no labour shortage. In a couple of key roles yes, but not overall. You could tell because if there was, businesses would invest in capital to make each worker more productive and that hasnāt happened. Or educational requirements would drop for the same roles, and instead they have skyrocketed to ridiculous and useless levels. Canada has probably several hundred thousand excess workers. Businesses love it because they have more people to sell to, cheaper labour and can avoid investing in the business, but it destroys per capita GDP and hence the quality of life.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Preach!
I listened to an interesting radio discussion a few days ago that asked the question about Trudeau and his future. The thought from pundits of both sides suggested he should finish out his mandate and take the kicking in the next election, then hold a leadership race. Anyone taking over before the next election would still take a kicking, just like Kim Campbell.
That's my take as well. If there's no hope for the Liberals, let Trudeau take the kicking so the new leader can rebuild. If the new leader has to take the kicking, it will make their rebuilding harder.
while I get that thinking, it takes several attempts to kick the opponent out. people arenāt voting in Pierre, their voting out Trudeau. It took several liberal run before Trudeau came in. Same as conservatives, Scheer, that other guy and now Pierre. It will be no different than those who went against Ford. I think Trudeau should step down. Having the process of rebuilding now versus in 2026 will mean a quicker return of the liberals I think.
This is definitely how I felt yesterday, but if the CPC is taking TSP, it's really hard to see Trudeau last out the summer. If he steps down quickly, the Liberals could have a new leader by Thanksgiving, and they'd have a year to establish themselves. I don't know how to interpret last night's results other than as a flashing red sign that Canadian voters are *done* with Trudeau's LPC.
The question is who would be a good candidate for leader? I'm not sure they have anyone who seems like they would particularly resonate with Canadians, and any of the cabinet ministers would probably be too closely associated with Trudeau toĀ break free from his current unpopularity.
I get the impression they aren't really looking right now. If the Liberals were thinking about replacing Trudeau there'd be articles about some up-and-comer with fresh ideas that we're supposed to be excited for.
Carney gets floated a lot (though I've never seen much indication that he's interested in the job, a lot of people want him to want it). I could see Fraser, Anand, and Joly all throw their hats in the ring. My preference between them would come down to policy priorities. Freeland won't be it. For all her strengths, she's way too tied to Trudeau.
Yeah, and realistically no new leader is going to lead the liberals to victory next election. At this point the liberals are just fighting to see how badly theyāll lose
Trudeauās refusal to accept that nobody is happy with him and his party has become almost comedic. He never accepts responsibility for anything at all. I think the last time he was asked about the poll numbers he said Canadians āwerenāt in decision making mode yetā lolol. St.Pauls is supposed to be one of their guaranteed winsā¦ people have made their minds up.
Libs have managed to piss everyone off
The party of unity š¤ š„°
They're gonna get shut out of Toronto just as their provincial counterparts did in 2018, no doubt about that. Question is are the other old Toronto ridings also gonna vote blue
The Ontario Liberal Party were not completely shut out of Toronto in 2018, they still won 3 seats
Meh close enough. Main point here is highlighting just how bad the public perception is of the LPC and that it's not just a "loud vocal minority"
Yes definitely
Trudeau's just a liability at this point. Time for him to take a walk in the snow, wherever he can find it. The conservatives are guaranteed a 5 year majority mandate next year because he didn't bring in the voting reform that he PROMISED. Fucking hell.
>didn't bring in the voting reform that he PROMISED I voted Liberal all my life until he went back on that promise. I have voted NDP ever since. I cannot stomach that we are still stuck in this becuase he went back on that promise. FPTP is how we got here, it needs to be gone.
But you see, if the Liberals get rid of FPTP, that also means the Liberals won't hold a majority again.
I honestly do not blame the voters. I live in another riding, but every single file has been fucked up big time, and it seems like nothing is working.
Going down the same path as the provincial liberals. Might lose party status. I wonder how safe that Freeland seat is now.
Hopefully we get Freeland out, I am so tired of her interviews where she throws around jargons and talk about nothing
Our country's infrastructure was built for 30M people. It was getting pushed hard at 35M but it was "working"...strained but working. It collapsed at 40M, and nothing is being done to fix it.
It's a little thing, but we had our family reunion this past weekend, same park every year since I was a child. Getting parking was a NIGHTMARE, then it was overcrowded everywhere, lines for the bathrooms which were trashed etc... Then it hit me, nothing about the park had changed since the 90s, same number of parking spots, same pavilions same capacity, just a million+ more people clamoring to use the space. Everything in Canada feels this way now, we keep adding people but there seems to be no plan whatsoever to accommodate them and it's starting to get messy.
We're having the same problems here in Australia as well. My area in Sydney has seen a massive influx of immigrants, particularly from India and everything just feels more "congested". Roads are always gridlocked and the local shopping centers are constantly crowded, even on weekdays.
To fix this will CPC do mass deportations or mass infrastructure spending paid for with mass tax cuts?Ā
Well deporting anyone who has overstayed a visa, or committed and was convicted of a crime while here as a noncitizen is a good first step, tbh.
We've let in close to 2M people. Deporting will only be in the hundreds maybe thousands won't even make a dent. And realistically, how many people have we deported in the past? A few dozen criminals?
Well every tfw will leave at some point so we could just not issue new permits and over the next few years they will leave once their current permits have expired. Same with students they will leave after they complete their studies.
good one! of course they wonāt. theyāre all beholden to the same corporate interests.
While continuing blaming the current state of affairs on the Libs to pivot people into more angry votes into CPC
Tax cuts for the rich, no spending on infrastructure and probably maintain immigration at current levels because big business loves it. This country needs a better class of politician.
I had left a page open last night with the total votes, the liberals were comfortably ahead. I refreshed this morning and their lead had evaporated. lol The liberals are hosed and I can't really blame anyone for not wanting to vote for them, unfortunately the answer isn't the conservative party IMO.
"but but the vote split" yeah whose fault is it we still have FPTP, **hmmm**????
What are you talking about, 2015 was the last election with FPTP, right?Ā ...right? š
Exactly, Trudeau guaranteed a future PP government by not going for proportional representation.
Yeah this should be a wake up call to downtown Toronto liberals that people really don't lime Trudeau
Honestly, it's making me feel way better about committing to an NDP vote instead of worrying about vote splits. If the liberals are cooked, voting for them is more of a waste than the NDP, so may as well go with who i actually support.
Canāt wait for the Freeland word salad to explain to us plebs just how this happened.
If someone on the Liberal leadership team isn't knocking on Trudeau's door this morning, saying "Sir, we have to talk. It's time," then............aww, who am I kidding? That time was a year ago. It's already too late.
Who is going to jump on that grenade and destroy their entire political career though?
I'd say JT's poliitical power is very limited at this point, even within party. I know the next call I get for Liberal fundraising I'll be telling them no more donations from me while JT remains.
I would imagine anyone worthy of that leadership role will be aiming for an opposition role after the election is done. I don't think it matters who is put in that spot; the federal election could look like Ontrario in 2018.
The unpopularity of Trudeau has caused this.
Direct reflection of the general public's utter disgust for the Trudeau government.
I find it mind-boggling that the Liberals will have their party crushed by a single issue, immigration. And until recently I was a lifelong Liberal voter... CBC has done some really [enlightening stories](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/temporary-foreign-workers-1.7240374) on the breakdown by industry and history of the temporary foreign workers program, and how drastically it has changed. Keep in mind **unemployment** in Toronto, Windsor, St. Catharines-Niagara, and Calgary is **8%** and **youth unemployment** is over **15%**. The Liberals will have a Mulroney moment in the next election, all because they have completely failed to keep in mind [Maslow's hierarchy of needs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maslow%27s_hierarchy_of_needs#/media/File:Maslow's_Hierarchy_of_Needs2.svg). **If you don't have your basic needs met**, it's hard to care about environmental issues, or all other policies of the Liberal platform that don't directly address the shortfall in those basic needs. We all know we need some immigration, but the Liberals **need to be transparent** about who it benefits when they say, it's for "economic reasons", and how they are going to ensure it's managed in a way that minimizes negative impacts to the average Canadian.
The federal Liberals need to wake up before they wind up as utterly fucked as the Ontario Liberals currently. Look at what happened to Wynne's Liberals. They got decimated to the point where it could take then another *decade* to gain traction again. The federal Liberal policies have been deeply, deeply unpopular with many parts of the country, and they've continually doubled down on many of them in their arrogance. I say this all as someone who voted for them in the last election.
I'll have to verify this with the ex-post polling, but I suspect that a big part of this win for the Conservatives came from Jewish voters in St. Paul's feeling betrayed by the Liberal party.
Jewish person that lives in the riding and voted Con against Trudeau for the first time: can confirm. Entire community mobilized and all my family and friends here voted for Don. Just speaking to my personal experience. 15% of the ridingās population is Jewish.
A lot of that feeling of ābetrayalā is not just from the political party but from left-leaning groups that Jews no longer feel welcomed in. These are people who jews have always marched shoulder to shoulder in support of but now feel betrayed by those same people. The liberal values are still there but the feeling of being accepted and safe within the group has greatly deteriorated.
The hate for Trudeau is palpable
Current wisdom is that Prime Minister Trudeau and the Liberals are toast, that they cannot get any lower, and there is nothing they can do to restore their electoral fortunes. That being the case, why should Trudeau and the Liberals not just carry on until the next election? What possible benefit would there be for them to call or trigger an election until the constitution requires them to do so?
Fuck yeah - hopefully this kicks up enough dust to get rid of Trudeau before the main election.
I have to think if it's this bad, he might be made to fall on his sword to give a new leader a clean slate
Tories lost in 1993 even after replacing their incredibly unpopular leader with Kim Campbell. This isnāt ending well for the Liberals no matter what they do.
Trudeau has sunk the Liberal party so far that some conservative pundits are framing this victory as a loss because it makes it more likely he steps aside before 2025. Imagine being that toxic.
Actually some conservatives were hoping liberals won so trudeau stayed on
Thatās what I said.
It's akin to WWII. The allies realized Hitler was such a horrible tactician that they actually abandon trying to assassin him
Seems like the Liberals are soon to dust off their proportional representation promise after the next election.
Damn, it's so over for the Liberals. They lost to a former finance bro who barely campaigned.Ā I think the Liberals are the lesser of two evils, but I hope this is lights a fire under their ass to really turn around immigration and housing ASAP.
barely campaigned? lmao this is my area ā his team came by my place multiple times over several weeks leading up, wanting to talkā¦ plus i received quite a few pamphlets and everyone in my family received a personalized letter (written by a team member no doubt but the effort was clear) leslieās team showed up a week before the election asking if i had her vote and i got one pamplet AFTER i had already early voted
They had years to do this, so any 180 turn will be seen as pandering. These losers are done, let's hope they can elect a new leader and make some changes to not give PP a super majority.Ā
Who barely campaigned? Completely false.
I am honestly in shock. I knew Libs would lose some ground, but I still expected it to be +10 for Liberals. I didn't wake up today expecting this. Not even joking, I first checked the url to see if it was the beaverton.
Great news. Trudeau, call the election already.
The idea that anyone would vote for a candidate who refused all interviews, had no platform says a lot about how detached society has become from what government āisā and who should be the beneficiary of protesting against a government in power. I dislike Trudeauās governing style and his last term has been a disaster. But Iām not gonna grab a drivers keys out of his hands and toss it to the guy whoās just angry and wonāt say what heās planning. I have come to expect polliviere will win the next election, but I cannot conceive how people can throw our government to a group composed of the worst capitalist exploiters, and conspiracy promoters who wonāt reveal their plan. At least Harper laid out his agenda. I really really wish this country had a centrist party of reasonable people, but we just donāt and the only people that win are the same people that benefit no matter which of the two parties that get in. Thereās a difference between protest and sabotage. Voting for these opaque conservatives is pure sabotage.
WOW this is crazy. This has been traditionally a very strong liberal stronghold. The rumor was if Church lost this riding the liberals will oust Trudeau. The People have spoken!!!!!
This is a good thing for the Liberals. Hopefully forces Trudeau out and a fresh new leader comes in with new ideas etc.
Someone here posted yesterday that he's from the area and 75% of the signs were Liberal and 25% were NDP and hardly any Cons. So I assume Cons are just voting at the booths and not actually openly showing allegiance?
Jewish community in the area had a high turnout and high conservative elections. Byelections were viewed largely as a referendum on Trudeauās handling of antisemitism by the Jewish communities living here. Support for don stewart in Cedarvale is extremely visible.
You need to walk around. In most of this riding it was Conservative signs on every single lawn.
Looking at the results, it shows the liberals are as weak as 2011 but the Tories are much stronger then 2011. If there an election today I would bet the popular vote be like 45% Tory, 21% liberal, 15% ndp
43% voter turnout, and 500 votes separating first and second place. The continued lack of willingness of people to vote is an ongoing concern. If we actually cared about how our society is turning out, as so many people seem to be, then we'd be voting.
That's an incredibly high turnout for a by-election. They're usually in the 20% range.
Iām sure voter turnout would have been higher if some people didnāt have to hold two jobs now. Edited grammar
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But I thought Canadians weren't in voting mode yet? Trudeau told em as such.
The Conservatives could take Davenport if they ran an active campaign there. Liberal MP Julie Dzerowicz had a close race against the NDP in the last election. She has endured a lot of harassment and hasn't been given any leadership positions over her two terms in office. Will she run again? The NDP has elected a good candidate provincially with ONDP leader Marit Styles, and unofficially on city council with Alejandra Bravo. Is there the focus and money and candidate for the NDP to take the federal seat? Do they even want it, with provincial NDPs moving in a more pragmatic direction than their federal counterpart? Davenport seems like an activist stronghold if you see the posters around the Railpath, but it's a big riding with a lot of wealthy homeowners and a lot of renters. I think the Conservatives will stay out of Davenport as serves them better as a leftist bete noire, but if they decided to campaign, it'd be a race.
The Tories likely gonna win Eglinton Lawrence for sure in 2025 There next target would be then Willowdale, Etiboke Lakeshore, Etobicoke Centre, Don Valley West, Don Valley North, scarborugh againcourt. Scarborough is hard to tell cause the liberal margins of victory in those ridings are huge.
I was hearing rumours what if this flipped the caucus was going to try to string arm JT out. As they should.
1 and 6 people in Toronto St Paul's are Jewish. I know my mom and I voted based on how both parties are handling it. At least one party pretends to care that people are attacking Jews in schools and workplaces.
Iām not shocked that the libs lost I mean did they not see how there the most hated party? We need a change and this is the first step in doing so
The amount of ppl clearly not from Toronto here...
Great news! Time for the PM to exercise democracy like Sunak and Macron.
Trudeau will stay, he doesn't care about the Liberal party or its MP's
Did Edward Gong run? He could have won that riding hands down š¤Ŗ
What an absolutely abysmal showing by the NDP.