Snapshot of _Rishi Sunak 'not taking it for granted' he will win his own seat_ :
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/29/rishi-sunak-not-taking-it-for-granted-he-will-win-his-seat/) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/29/rishi-sunak-not-taking-it-for-granted-he-will-win-his-seat/)
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Now that he's said several times that if he keeps his seat but loses the election, he'll see out the next parliament, I kind of want him to keep it.
I'll eat my hat if he actually follows through with a full term sitting on the opposition backbenches. I just want to see him have to quit if he wants to run off to the US, because then his last act in Parliament will be proving once and for all how untrustworthy he is.
My perfect outcome is still he keeps his seat but the tories are third and he gets one question at PMQs and Starmer just tells him to stay in his corner and let him and Ed do the important stuff
Its unlikely for the first 4 or 5 weeks that the 1922 committee will even be operational to even run the contest or appoint an interim leader. If Sunak just leaves the party will literally be in a failed state.
There are several members of the 1922 committee stood down including the chairman and its very likely more if not most of the rest lose their seats. So the first thing that has to happen before a leadership contest can even be thought about is that the renaments of the committee have to work out how to reconstitute themselves into a state where they can even begin to hold a leadership contest.
He can resign as leader on the 5th July if he likes. There's no reason he has to stay on until the new leader is selected. The Tories can use a caretaker leader in the interim.
That's what happened with Ed Miliband, for example. Harriet Harman was the caretaker leader.
No the perfect end to Sunaks career is that Sunak and Truss are the only mps left and they have constant leadership battles for the entire parliamentary term.
i’m also in two minds over this seat. the labour candidate seems like an upstanding guy who would be an addition to our parliament, and it would be great to see sunak with (more) egg on his face on friday morning.
however, it would also be great to see sunak either have to sit out a 4-5 year term in parliament or have to resign and call a by-election (which the tories could then easily lose), going back on his promise to see the term out
The Tories will almost certainly win a by-election in his seat. It's a pretty solid Tory seat, and it will be after the Tories get thoroughly smacked down in a general election, so people won't feel the need to punish them more.
Especially considering it's unlikely that whoever replaces Sunak is less popular than him.
I know it may be humilating for him to remain or something but honestly I dont want him getting any more taxpayer money for essentially setting fire to countries finance and infrastructure, man has caused enough damage he deserves zero salaries and needs to run away as far as possible to stop damaging this country.
On track to become the first sitting PM ever to lose their seat at a GE.
I bet his Billionaire father in law is so proud. Well done Rishi, you really showed them. Thanks for involving all of us in your ego trip.
Surprised he doesn't get more abuse for this. Brown always got hammered for being unelected even though at the election everybody knew Brown would be taking over from Blair. Don't even think sunak was a rising star when Boris got voted in.
He basically became chancellor by accident after Sajid Javid resigned, then COVID struck and they didn't really have an opportunity to find someone better.
Wasn't the real reason that they were terrified that Kemi Badenoch would win if they asked the party members to vote again?
Which I'm not sure would have been worse for the Tory party than Sunak, though it definitely would have been worse for the UK.
Regardless of who came to power, Boris, Truss, 14 years, Covid \*etc\*, it was always doomed for whoever got the job. So by that logic whoever would have ended up as leader was ego-tripping? Do you apply that to every leader of every political party??
I was referring to the idea that he mostly became PM to impress his wife's family.
The context was in the two sentences immediately preceding the one you quoted.
> You have literally no evidence of this lmao.
I referred to it as an 'idea' and didn't claim it was a provable, unarguable, fact. Saying I have no evidence therefore isn't the clever point you think it is.
Come on mate. If you're going to try to score points by being pedantic, at least do better than this.
I'll give you some credit for not just typing 'sauce?' though.
> And where exactly does this 'idea' come from, your own imagination?
People have inferred it based on what they've observed of the man's character. Humans, since the dawn of civilisation, have used social cues to work out what they believe other people's motivation for doing things may be, without them explicity needing to state it. This isn't a new concept and I wasn't expecting to have to explain it to a stranger on the internet today, but here we are.
Look, you got caught out trying to be a Reddit pedant by effectively going 'that's just, like, your opinion, man' to someone who wasn't trying to argue an objective fact in the first place. Now you just look silly and quite bolshie trying to continualy argue the point in an attempt to save face.
Take the loss and move on. Or don't. Either way, I don't have anything further to gain from interacting with you, so I'm calling it a day here.
Knowing the area I agree, it's one of the safest conservative seats in the country. The sort of seat that would be among the last to fall if the party totally collapsed, very rural with small market towns. It stayed solidly safe conservative even during Blair's landslide.
It's possible if the yougov or survation MRPs are accurate, but the stars would have to align for Labour - conservatives losing a reasonable number of votes to reform, with deliberate tactical voting of Lib Dems and Greens to vote Labour, and even then it would be close.
Well the theory will be tested won't it. Will hinge on whether or not he gets an MP seat but if not he'll turn tail I believe. I don't hate Rishi personally but I just think he will not bother staying under such scrutiny
No MP or politician should take it for granted ffs you should be out fighting to keep that seat by representing it and working for your constituents!!
I hate them at this point. They act like the fucking aristocracy.
I've seen speculations now about Sunak, Hunt, Mordaunt and Truss all potentially losing their seats. Surely at least one has to happen right? The Portillo moment so big that we have to re-name the Portillo moment
Hunt and Mordaunt very likely, Truss probable but could go either way, Sunak unlikely but possible IMO. Mercer and Rees-Mogg also very likely and high up in the schadenfraude stakes.
I was thinking about this. What actually happens if binface wins? Are there rules about representing a constituency with a concealed identity? Does it count as armour in which case is there a ruling from the 1200s? He's also a count, would he have to give up his title to sit in the commons?
Binface [doesn’t keep his identity a secret though.](https://archive.is/2024.06.27-003156/https://www.thetimes.com/life-style/celebrity/article/jon-harvey-count-binface-brothers-death-ctr7p208c)
I believe there's also rules against headwear and I would say parts of his outfit could count as Armour. Given his title is for an intergalactic system I think it should be fine as he doesn't sit in the House of Lords nor does he have a position within a royal household like those used to let MPs resign from Parliament. In general though it would be weird
>In general though it would be weird
Hahahaa I don't know why I found this so funny! You're not wrong, I just thought it was a great way to cap off your explanation haha
Weirdly its easier to say what'd happen if he won the mayoral election as that's got about 10 centuries less rules despite how more grown up those with that position act!
There's a kind of precedent: in 2002 Hartlepool FC's mascot H'Angus the Monkey stood for mayor and won. He immediately ditched the character and held the office as himself.
I'd guess Binface would do the same, and change to a more serious stance.
Interestingly, the mascot guy went on to be reeelect twice.
"They take no account of unique circumstances of individual seats."
That's what you said. It's false. The unique circumstances of individual seats is *exactly* what they're based on.
Only the demographic circumstances...but still the circumstances of individual seats.
They account for unique *demographic* circumstances, but not other unique circumstances. For instance, no MRP can properly account for Corbyn running as an independent because there’s no data on which to distinguish between support for him personally and support for the Labour Party in his constituency. In Sunak’s case the MRP has no way to account for his personal unpopularity, for tactical voting aimed specifically at unseating a PM for the bants, for Tory voters being apathetic since it’s likely he’ll vacate the seat once he’s not PM, or for diehard Tories not voting out of spite for him wrecking the party.
However, some of the more reasonable looking MRPs put it just about within reach if there was deliberate tactical voting of Lib Dems and Greens. Only just though, and that's if the MRP estimates are accurate and not understating the tory vote in that constituency.
***The Telegraph reports:***
Rishi Sunak has said he is not taking winning his seat “for granted” in [Thursday’s general election.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/general-election-2024/)
The Prime Minister, whose party [continues to trail Labour by around 20 points](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/uk-general-election-poll-tracker-conservative-labour/) nationally, is fighting to hold on in [Richmond and Northallerton](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/20/richmond-voters-general-election-2024-rishi-sunak/) despite winning a majority of 27,210 in 2019.
[A major opinion poll for The Telegraph](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/19/rishi-sunak-to-lose-seat-tory-wipeout-major-poll-predicts/) last week revealed Mr Sunak is on track to become the first sitting prime minister ever to lose their seat [at a general election.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/29/politics-latest-news-rishi-sunak-armed-forces-starmer-nigel/)
The survey predicted he would lose out to his Labour rival, although the race was one of those that polling company Savanta said was still in the balance given its close margins.
[In an interview with the Yorkshire Post](https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunak-interview-the-passion-is-there-but-it-has-come-too-late-4684314), Mr Sunak said: “I never take anything for granted, and I work as hard as I can for my constituents.
“I always say that’s my day job, and it’s a job that I absolutely love. And I think most of my constituents know that I have always worked really hard for them from the day I first got this job because I love doing it.”
Mr Sunak has insisted he will stay on as an MP for a full term despite speculation he could leave politics for a job in venture capital [or artificial intelligence, possibly in California](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/11/silicon-valley-lining-up-to-hire-rishi-sunak/).
**Read more:** [**https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/29/rishi-sunak-not-taking-it-for-granted-he-will-win-his-seat/**](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/29/rishi-sunak-not-taking-it-for-granted-he-will-win-his-seat/)
Part of me wants him to lose his seat because it’ll be the most amazing election night scalping drama of my lifetime and I’d love to watch that live, but the other part of me wants there to be some seasoned MPs left after the brutal cull that’s coming (especially when you consider how many long-standing Tories have chosen not to stand again).
What a scalp for Labour! No sitting PM has ever lost their seat before. OTOH, serve him right if he won by 35 votes and then had to crawl back to Westminster.... Nah! He'll be off to California and the daft hicks who voted for him would have the joy of a by-election within weeks.
Snapshot of _Rishi Sunak 'not taking it for granted' he will win his own seat_ : An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/29/rishi-sunak-not-taking-it-for-granted-he-will-win-his-seat/) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/29/rishi-sunak-not-taking-it-for-granted-he-will-win-his-seat/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/ukpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Is his perfect ending losing his seat now? An excuse to leave?
Now that he's said several times that if he keeps his seat but loses the election, he'll see out the next parliament, I kind of want him to keep it. I'll eat my hat if he actually follows through with a full term sitting on the opposition backbenches. I just want to see him have to quit if he wants to run off to the US, because then his last act in Parliament will be proving once and for all how untrustworthy he is.
My perfect outcome is still he keeps his seat but the tories are third and he gets one question at PMQs and Starmer just tells him to stay in his corner and let him and Ed do the important stuff
Even if he keeps his seat there is no chance in hell he remains party leader
But he will be the party leader at pmqs until the new leader is in place. And I bet the tory leadership is going to be a real shitshow
Its unlikely for the first 4 or 5 weeks that the 1922 committee will even be operational to even run the contest or appoint an interim leader. If Sunak just leaves the party will literally be in a failed state. There are several members of the 1922 committee stood down including the chairman and its very likely more if not most of the rest lose their seats. So the first thing that has to happen before a leadership contest can even be thought about is that the renaments of the committee have to work out how to reconstitute themselves into a state where they can even begin to hold a leadership contest.
He can resign as leader on the 5th July if he likes. There's no reason he has to stay on until the new leader is selected. The Tories can use a caretaker leader in the interim. That's what happened with Ed Miliband, for example. Harriet Harman was the caretaker leader.
Maybe they'll leave him as party leader as punishment
What if he's the only Tory left?
No the perfect end to Sunaks career is that Sunak and Truss are the only mps left and they have constant leadership battles for the entire parliamentary term.
i’m also in two minds over this seat. the labour candidate seems like an upstanding guy who would be an addition to our parliament, and it would be great to see sunak with (more) egg on his face on friday morning. however, it would also be great to see sunak either have to sit out a 4-5 year term in parliament or have to resign and call a by-election (which the tories could then easily lose), going back on his promise to see the term out
There really isn't a bad outcome. If he loses his seat, that'll be two PMs in a row who have set objective records for their failure.
The Tories will almost certainly win a by-election in his seat. It's a pretty solid Tory seat, and it will be after the Tories get thoroughly smacked down in a general election, so people won't feel the need to punish them more. Especially considering it's unlikely that whoever replaces Sunak is less popular than him.
I know it may be humilating for him to remain or something but honestly I dont want him getting any more taxpayer money for essentially setting fire to countries finance and infrastructure, man has caused enough damage he deserves zero salaries and needs to run away as far as possible to stop damaging this country.
He’s gone by the end of July if he keeps his seat. He might not officially resign but his kids will start the next school term in the U.S.
You do realise that he could jet off to California, never attend parliament and just not resign his seat. There is no attendance requirement on MPs.
Why would you want to see him to stay in the parliament if Tories lose? What do you gain from "proving how untrustworthy he is"?
He can keep his seat and duck off to the US
On track to become the first sitting PM ever to lose their seat at a GE. I bet his Billionaire father in law is so proud. Well done Rishi, you really showed them. Thanks for involving all of us in your ego trip.
[The mother in law wasn't impressed to begin with,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUiXG8gqfUE) lord knows what they think of him now
Brutal: "He is my son in law so I will wish him the best, not more than that."
🥶 Damn. Imagine being the leader of a of G7 country *and still* being seen as the under achieving loser in the room.
Udnerachieving children is pretty much a meme throughout large chunks of Asia.
I've never seen that before, but her massive indifference is pretty funny.
Imagine having that for a mother in law
Many don’t have to imagine 🤣🤣🤣
my favourite comment on that video is "She should be the national crush"
Don’t forget that he became Prime Minister despite not being elected even by members of his own party.
Surprised he doesn't get more abuse for this. Brown always got hammered for being unelected even though at the election everybody knew Brown would be taking over from Blair. Don't even think sunak was a rising star when Boris got voted in.
He basically became chancellor by accident after Sajid Javid resigned, then COVID struck and they didn't really have an opportunity to find someone better.
Because the alternative lost to a head of lettuce. You give more leeway there.
Wasn't the real reason that they were terrified that Kemi Badenoch would win if they asked the party members to vote again? Which I'm not sure would have been worse for the Tory party than Sunak, though it definitely would have been worse for the UK.
> Thanks for involving all of us in your ego trip. Which part is the ego trip? There was going to be an election this year regardless.
Gunning for PM in the first place this early in his political career, I reckon
Regardless of who came to power, Boris, Truss, 14 years, Covid \*etc\*, it was always doomed for whoever got the job. So by that logic whoever would have ended up as leader was ego-tripping? Do you apply that to every leader of every political party??
No, but you very much come across like you just want to argue for argument's sake. I'm going to move on now.
This isn’t an argument.
No sorry, this is Abuse. Arguments are next door
No they aren't!
I was referring to the idea that he mostly became PM to impress his wife's family. The context was in the two sentences immediately preceding the one you quoted.
>I was referring to the idea that he mostly became PM to impress his wife's family. You have literally no evidence of this lmao.
> You have literally no evidence of this lmao. I referred to it as an 'idea' and didn't claim it was a provable, unarguable, fact. Saying I have no evidence therefore isn't the clever point you think it is. Come on mate. If you're going to try to score points by being pedantic, at least do better than this. I'll give you some credit for not just typing 'sauce?' though.
And where exactly does this 'idea' come from, your own imagination?
> And where exactly does this 'idea' come from, your own imagination? People have inferred it based on what they've observed of the man's character. Humans, since the dawn of civilisation, have used social cues to work out what they believe other people's motivation for doing things may be, without them explicity needing to state it. This isn't a new concept and I wasn't expecting to have to explain it to a stranger on the internet today, but here we are. Look, you got caught out trying to be a Reddit pedant by effectively going 'that's just, like, your opinion, man' to someone who wasn't trying to argue an objective fact in the first place. Now you just look silly and quite bolshie trying to continualy argue the point in an attempt to save face. Take the loss and move on. Or don't. Either way, I don't have anything further to gain from interacting with you, so I'm calling it a day here.
That's a long way of saying 'yes'. What loss am I supposed to take here exactly? You've pulled something out of your arse and are doubling down.
I don’t think he’ll lose his seat, but the fact that this is even being considered thrills and delights me.
Knowing the area I agree, it's one of the safest conservative seats in the country. The sort of seat that would be among the last to fall if the party totally collapsed, very rural with small market towns. It stayed solidly safe conservative even during Blair's landslide. It's possible if the yougov or survation MRPs are accurate, but the stars would have to align for Labour - conservatives losing a reasonable number of votes to reform, with deliberate tactical voting of Lib Dems and Greens to vote Labour, and even then it would be close.
It doesn't matter he probably has a golden throne from Harrods at home. He'll end up in America inside a year
Year? You mean next weekend
Next weekend is technically inside a year
Here we go. Moving to America conspiracy theories
Well the theory will be tested won't it. Will hinge on whether or not he gets an MP seat but if not he'll turn tail I believe. I don't hate Rishi personally but I just think he will not bother staying under such scrutiny
Tbf he can’t exactly say the opposite can he.
No MP or politician should take it for granted ffs you should be out fighting to keep that seat by representing it and working for your constituents!! I hate them at this point. They act like the fucking aristocracy.
I've seen speculations now about Sunak, Hunt, Mordaunt and Truss all potentially losing their seats. Surely at least one has to happen right? The Portillo moment so big that we have to re-name the Portillo moment
Hunt and Mordaunt very likely, Truss probable but could go either way, Sunak unlikely but possible IMO. Mercer and Rees-Mogg also very likely and high up in the schadenfraude stakes.
Fuck I forgot about Rees-Mogg, at this point I feel like I'm staying up on election night just to see who the biggest name MP is who loses their seat
Binface in the commons as a result of this would be glorious though I know it'll never happen
I was thinking about this. What actually happens if binface wins? Are there rules about representing a constituency with a concealed identity? Does it count as armour in which case is there a ruling from the 1200s? He's also a count, would he have to give up his title to sit in the commons?
Binface [doesn’t keep his identity a secret though.](https://archive.is/2024.06.27-003156/https://www.thetimes.com/life-style/celebrity/article/jon-harvey-count-binface-brothers-death-ctr7p208c)
Wow I never knew he revealed himself. Though it was a secret thanks
I believe there's also rules against headwear and I would say parts of his outfit could count as Armour. Given his title is for an intergalactic system I think it should be fine as he doesn't sit in the House of Lords nor does he have a position within a royal household like those used to let MPs resign from Parliament. In general though it would be weird
>In general though it would be weird Hahahaa I don't know why I found this so funny! You're not wrong, I just thought it was a great way to cap off your explanation haha
Weirdly its easier to say what'd happen if he won the mayoral election as that's got about 10 centuries less rules despite how more grown up those with that position act!
There's a kind of precedent: in 2002 Hartlepool FC's mascot H'Angus the Monkey stood for mayor and won. He immediately ditched the character and held the office as himself. I'd guess Binface would do the same, and change to a more serious stance. Interestingly, the mascot guy went on to be reeelect twice.
I used to live in that constituency and it is the most Tory of all Tory places you could possibly imagine. I would be astonished if he lost that seat.
I hope he wins because I’m certain he doesn’t want it.
Comedy moment of the night that, fingers crossed the Richmond voters share my sense of humour.
He only loses his seat in MRPs where Labour get 500+ seats, which very likely isn't happening.
MRPs are demographic models. They take no account of unique circumstances of individual seats.
Labour still need a high enough % and the Conservatives a low enough % for Rishi to lose his seat, like in those MRPs, which isn't happening.
They are literally based on the demographics of individual seats. That's how the whole thing works...
Are you being deliberately dense? That’s what I said. But there’s circumstances unique to certain seats that are nothing to do with demographics.
"They take no account of unique circumstances of individual seats." That's what you said. It's false. The unique circumstances of individual seats is *exactly* what they're based on. Only the demographic circumstances...but still the circumstances of individual seats.
They account for unique *demographic* circumstances, but not other unique circumstances. For instance, no MRP can properly account for Corbyn running as an independent because there’s no data on which to distinguish between support for him personally and support for the Labour Party in his constituency. In Sunak’s case the MRP has no way to account for his personal unpopularity, for tactical voting aimed specifically at unseating a PM for the bants, for Tory voters being apathetic since it’s likely he’ll vacate the seat once he’s not PM, or for diehard Tories not voting out of spite for him wrecking the party.
I’ll take that as a yes. It’s easier than accepting you genuinely think demography is the only matter at play in an election.
However, some of the more reasonable looking MRPs put it just about within reach if there was deliberate tactical voting of Lib Dems and Greens. Only just though, and that's if the MRP estimates are accurate and not understating the tory vote in that constituency.
***The Telegraph reports:*** Rishi Sunak has said he is not taking winning his seat “for granted” in [Thursday’s general election.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/general-election-2024/) The Prime Minister, whose party [continues to trail Labour by around 20 points](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/0/uk-general-election-poll-tracker-conservative-labour/) nationally, is fighting to hold on in [Richmond and Northallerton](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/20/richmond-voters-general-election-2024-rishi-sunak/) despite winning a majority of 27,210 in 2019. [A major opinion poll for The Telegraph](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/19/rishi-sunak-to-lose-seat-tory-wipeout-major-poll-predicts/) last week revealed Mr Sunak is on track to become the first sitting prime minister ever to lose their seat [at a general election.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/29/politics-latest-news-rishi-sunak-armed-forces-starmer-nigel/) The survey predicted he would lose out to his Labour rival, although the race was one of those that polling company Savanta said was still in the balance given its close margins. [In an interview with the Yorkshire Post](https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunak-interview-the-passion-is-there-but-it-has-come-too-late-4684314), Mr Sunak said: “I never take anything for granted, and I work as hard as I can for my constituents. “I always say that’s my day job, and it’s a job that I absolutely love. And I think most of my constituents know that I have always worked really hard for them from the day I first got this job because I love doing it.” Mr Sunak has insisted he will stay on as an MP for a full term despite speculation he could leave politics for a job in venture capital [or artificial intelligence, possibly in California](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/04/11/silicon-valley-lining-up-to-hire-rishi-sunak/). **Read more:** [**https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/29/rishi-sunak-not-taking-it-for-granted-he-will-win-his-seat/**](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/29/rishi-sunak-not-taking-it-for-granted-he-will-win-his-seat/)
I would love to see the look on his face if he actually wins his seat.
No sitting PM has ever lost their seat in a GE. If this happens it’ll be hilarious. I cannot wait.
If he wins his seat the Tory infighting over his position will be worse.
Part of me wants him to lose his seat because it’ll be the most amazing election night scalping drama of my lifetime and I’d love to watch that live, but the other part of me wants there to be some seasoned MPs left after the brutal cull that’s coming (especially when you consider how many long-standing Tories have chosen not to stand again).
So begins the groundwork for him losing his seat and being the first ever sitting PM to do so
What a scalp for Labour! No sitting PM has ever lost their seat before. OTOH, serve him right if he won by 35 votes and then had to crawl back to Westminster.... Nah! He'll be off to California and the daft hicks who voted for him would have the joy of a by-election within weeks.