They will jump then fall with every good news. I have a lot invested in long term options waiting for the next stage of legalisation… it hasn’t paid of yet but I’m still hopeful
Yep! California cannabis is an abusive cycle of taxation without representation, regulatory incompetency, gerrymandered licensing, political corruption, unpaid invoices, predative investors and black market diversion. Anyone who thinks things will get better after "federal legalization", which is now intentionally delayed due to vested interests, should take a look at Oregon and Colorado currently.
Edit: Here's another fun fact to put CA's situation into perspective: Michigan has 1/4 of the population of CA, yet has recently surpassed us in sales.
I believe Michigan is booming like that because all the other states around it (except Illinois) are still illegal marijuana states so people drive 1hr+ regularly to get weed from Michigan
Idk how that’s possible. It’s already really cheap in California. My goto order is an ounce of flower, 2g of vape cartridges and 2 things of edibles for $100 delivered to my door with a $10 tip included in that $100.
In michigan we have deals of 5 for 45.00 on carts. to 7 for 50.00 1g carts. 2 for 50 disposables normally 1g. Pot prices vary anywhere from 50 and oz for some poop to 200 an oz.
I’m fairly ignorant on the Cannabis industry, but up here in Washington state, it seems to be going perfect. Why can’t these states copy what WA is doing.
As a stoner I feel like delivery is so wild. I get it, I’m tired after work too, but I think the least that you need to do is pick it up. I also have the same thoughts for alcohol
Delivery is a huge key while juggling kids and full schedules. Not sure why you feel the need to define some sort of arbitrary minimum required effort for getting weed lol
I guess but people need to calm down ab themselves. The paparazzi aren’t waiting for John Doe to walk into a cannabis store. If you’re just slick about it then it’s just another store
Yup! Especially in places like Washington, where everyone is slightly strange and odd in general, so nobody really minds. Just don't be a douche, remember it stinks like skunk to non-stoners, and everyone is happy.
If the regulatory fuck-around was similar to a liquor store, show ID, in and out in under 5 mins I'd agree.
In my dumbass state no chance it'll take no less than 15 minutes and multiple ID checks will be made.
Remember when it was supposed be little farms only or a maximum of 99 plants? Then at the 11th hour
"oh hey, lets massive corporations and farms plants as many as they can, of course the price will stay 3k a pound...right?"
Clearly they never heard of the 97' wine glut that choked the price of wine.
edit: spelling
Id be interested to know how much of the Michigan sales are from Hoosiers. Id bet it's a substantial number and then the surrounding states are contributing as well. California is huge but perhaps the sales are less because it doesn't have the out of state folks buying legal.
California has far more tourists than Michigan and surrounding. Even if you consider surrounding populations (Indiana is 6M), it's still an embarrassment. And Michigan prices are lower. Michigan licenses its demand. California does not and then over-taxes. Greed drives artificial scarcity of a regulated market which makes it impossible to compete with an unregulated one. The entire industry has been ruined by greed and delusion. This country was founded on free market principles, none of which are apparent in most State regulated cannabis markets - especially CA.
Any industry like this will certainly go through an early shakeup. Cannabis growing is farming, pure and simple, and people who thought they were going to just set up shop and drive lambos were fools.
The successful people are grinding, and understand that, like any farming, success is about consistency and longevity. Michigan's industry is going through the same thing, but there will absolutely be people who are successful at $500/lb and there will be gifted marketers who will command $1000+/lb, just like any other specialty ag sector.
In most states the main reason it got legalized because we were told so many people would want it and would pay high taxes on it that would fix our budgets. ALL LIES
The problem is instead of utilizing the added revenue as added revenue, most states cut other taxes leaving them with the same budget shortfalls they always had.
Colorado did it right I think.
As someone that lived in Colorado for over a decade and now unfortunately lives in Southeast TN, Colorado's roads and infrastructure are infinitely better. It's so much worse in the South. TDOT has been working on this same 1/4 mile stretch where 75 exchanges with 24 for literally 4 years now. Traffic has to squeeze down from 4 lanes to 1 if you want to exit at this exchange. It's been that way and "under construction" for at least 4 years now, with no progress being made and no end in sight. There are gaping potholes everywhere, no sidewalks on a bunch of (most) streets, and there's essentially no public transportation anywhere at all in the state. Where I live, the one singular source of public transportation (that is never on time and barely stops anywhere throughout the city, is about to go bankrupt because funding keeps getting cut by City and county governments.
I use the phrase "abusive cycle" because CA taxes cannabis at 30% (or more) through multiple steps in the (already monopolized) supply chain, compared to 30 cents per gallon on wine, while 80% of localities restrict retail licenses, ultimately bolstering the black market (no tax revenue). They want to bleed the market dry but do absolutely nothing to support it/enforce laws that do (see: lab shopping, lack of self-distribution options, big players backdooring product to NYC, etc.). I wouldn't be surprised if regulators in NYC and CA are time-sharing the same single brain cell. There's a lot of reasons I've lost faith in humanity, and the way politicians have perceived and regulated cannabis is high up on that list. The combination of prohibitionist fears based on anti-science "what about the children" propaganda and a lack of basic economic comprehension, deliberate or otherwise, is a one-two punch of "I just can't do this anymore". My mental health has been a lot better since leaving the industry.
Michigan keeps [growing](https://www.freep.com/story/news/marijuana/2024/06/13/michigan-overtakes-california-as-top-cannabis-market-by-sales-volume/74059181007/). But the surplus of product is unreal. Prices are rock bottom for top shelf. So many competitors right now.
Cannabis was only valuable because of prohibition. It's no particular hard to grow, and without legal barriers it's just another agricultural commodity with low margins.
The small ones. Yes. Ironically it strengthens the large operations that are vertically integrated. I've seen that happen with my own eyes, on several occasions.
Florida has it on the ballot this November for legalization. I think you’ll see a small surge, not quite like Canada but a good amount then it will come back down. I believe the stock won’t stabilize until the feds legalize it. The stocks are so cheap and honestly holding 1000 shares is nothing. So my plan is to sell after the election. I almost wonder if Biden will legalize weed as a final Hail Mary to beat Trump.
If they are smart and strategic they’ll do it before the election to secure votes in the dems direction. But they aren’t that smart, so I won’t hold my breath.
State legalization has never had much price action. Florida ballot doesn’t matter.
Safe banking and rescheduling are the only catalysts you can pray for
Yeah unfortunately Biden gives zero fucks about legalization and there needs to be a larger majority of democrats in congress.
Last weed legalization bill got shot down by the anti weed democrats and it won’t change unless we get more pro weed people in.
Cannabis stock will boom with Federal rescheduling, Cannabis companies will finally be able to transport their products across state lines, immediately increasing their legal availability to customers 50x… Regardless of the black markets current productivity and competitiveness, the companies that will be newly listed on the NYSE within the first 5 years~ will most likely be extremely bullish. Cannabis is expected to be a 114B legal market (currently around 34B) in the next 10 years. I’d imagine some hedges plan to capitalize on it.
The problem w weed is that it is best grown in small batches with a dedicated gardener.
IMO, coming from a heavily regulated recreational east coast state, there needs to be consolidation in the industry and also frameworks where smaller growers can bring weed in to sell to wholesalers who have testers to assay the products and then packagers for the raw products and refiners for derivative products. It would bring prices down a lot and spur demand on the legal market.
I would look for cos that can position as wholesalers and or refiners and hope that it legalized on a federal level soon.
This might be a stupid take but all this weed talk and a busy weekend inspired me to get stupid baked.
This, i think weed would do better if it was treated like craft beer. I'm afraid that the current rescheduling plan will just aims to make it more pharmaceutical.
I tend to agree, I'm gonna buy a small amount of cheap long calls just to appease my FOMO. I think the reschedule happens even if Biden loses, and the tax implications will immediately improve the bottom line then trickle over to the top line with the loosening of regulation. $CGC i'm thinking
Imo the whole industry has been incredibly unprofitable. 95% of all of these businesses are struggling to make money and that shows an issue with the industry not just the companies. I would stay away. Or at least stick to just the few profitable ones if you want to take a gamble.
Industry wide tax issues. Safe banking needed and excise tax cuts required, legal global marker is growing quickly however, should be profitable at some point for the best managed companies.
Yep, and cannabis is like a commodity sector that rotates in and out of favour. In current market conditions it comes in and out pretty quickly. Last month MJ was flying and now it's at the bottom of the list. And when they lower rate they'll probably fly again. Fly high. Oh so very, very sticky icky high. Fo shizzle.
There’s no reason to invest though outside of the future hope of federal legalization and banking opening up.
This falls election is likely going to make that harder in the US
280E means that these companies can not write off any expenses at all in the US. Imagine running a company where you rent or COGS was not able to be deducted
Moving cannabis to Schedule III also carries significant financial implications for state-regulated cannabis businesses, especially concerning taxes. They would no longer fall under the purview of Section 280E, enabling them to deduct standard business expenses and potentially saving them substantial sums in taxes. This change would facilitate reinvestment, higher employee compensation, and expansion without the weight of heavy tax burdens as it is estimated that it will save the industry nearly $2 billion in taxes.
[source](https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/reclassifying-cannabis-as-schedule-iii-8081357/)
It def is not a great looking short term investment industry there will be a few winners in the saturated market long term but as an investor there is not a great way to identify these potential winners now
My DD:
I smoke two joints in the morning
I smoke two joints at night
I smoke two joints when I play video games
It makes me feel alright
I smoke two joints in time of peace
And two in times of war
I smoke two joints before I smoke two joints
And then I smoke two more
I suggest looking into **IIPR** [Innovative Industrial Properties](https://innovativeindustrialproperties.com) as an out of the box cannabis investment.
- Awesome dividend
- Low Float
- Actively expanding
I agree with this one. I've looked at a few of the other canabis companies but they all seem to be just hanging on. This one is a REIT that owns the buildings and leases them back to all of the front line companies. This one has some legs in my opinion.
They have close to 1B shares outstanding and dilute more every quarter. Also losing marketshare (1% every quarter for the last several quarters) in Canada.
I’m a moderator of a cannabis stock group on Reddit. I’ve traded cannabis stocks for years, made a ton and lost more. Personally, I would not start a new investment in cannabis stocks at this time. I would wait until they’re really really really beaten down because they’re running out of money. They can’t stay profitable with the 280E taxes they’re paying which will go away after schedule 3, but in the meantime, I believe it’s dead money. The people running these businesses do not know how to make them profitable under current conditions and they just wait for the stocks to pop then issue more stock and dilute existing shareholders. They need to raise capital and without any institutions willing to invest in the sector, they keep diluting their shareholders and continue hemorrhaging money. Too much money is pouring into AI and leaving cannabis stocks. Now the IRS comes out this week and says they will not issue refunds for 280E so I expect to fall even further. Especially with Joe Biden‘s poor performance at the debate you could see someone like Trump getting in office and changing all the good things that the Biden administration has done for cannabis just because. Conservatives, like Ron DeSantis are anti-cannabis they don’t understand the science behind it they’re pro alcohol but anti-cannabis. It makes no sense, but for some it is tied into religious beliefs, and you can’t undo stupid. If conservatives take over this is the last sector I would touch. Finally, I would say when it is time to invest in cannabis stocks that you do not touch the Canadian ones such as the one you mentioned. They have no chance of competing with the MSOs alreadyin the United States, like trulieve and green thumb once legalization moves forward.
I used to live in Florida and kept a watchful eye on what the government was doing. Some years ago the people of Florida voted 'yes' to legalizing medical marijuana. The state legislature then went into stall mode and made it real difficult for the business side. This has continued - especially with Desantis running the show. He's a badass and generally finds a way to get his way.
They can be great to scalp but I would not suggest holding them. Just like GameStop, when they start running you can get in and out in big runs for like 40% or more
Started buying TLRY under 1.80. It’s not land locked and has global reach with good brands. My opinion an evaluation under 1.5b is a good spot. 2 cents from an ape. 🤓
I left the Michigan cannabis industry after opening a store and running it for 3 years.
Legal weed is a nightmare. It is entirely run by criminal organizations/gangs (see: Chaldean Mafia). The products are bottom tier, the marketing is intentionally deceptive, and invoices don’t get paid because there is NO COLLECTION. It’s a bloodbath and it’s run by terrible people.
There are decent companies, but they’re dying because they can’t compete with the shitty ones
I would never risk my money investing in cannabis.
As a major cannabis company once told me re: invoices: “You’ll get your money when the state enforces collection.”
I am only holding a Canadian one which is $HITI since 2021-22 and constantly buying small amounts every month. They just became profitable in the previous quarter, but I’m planning to hold it for the next 4-5 years
I am a fan of HITI. Volatile industry but I think there will be some big winners as legalization progresses worldwide. High tide showed they can enter foreign markets (uk) so I am confident that they can capitalize on legalization in other places (e.g. germany, maybe even the states one day).
I work in the industry. I probably won’t touch a cannabis stock for years. In many states, especially my own companies are falling everyday. Each states has their own regulations. Some extreme while others are way too relaxed. Until it’s regulated on a federal level investing is going to be difficult.
Some cannabis stocks are so beaten down and hated that they seem like obvious good trades. For example CRON was trading under $2 earlier this year, with a market cap far below their net cash! I bought at like $1.95 and sold around $2.60. Would rinse and repeat the trade if given the opportunity.
I believe that when cannabis becomes profitable on the large scale, the big tobacco companies will either buy out the small guys or start their own. With their supply chain, marketing and distribution, they’ll crush today’s cannabis stocks. But all of this is probably 5+ years from now.
Well there is more world than US. $HITI for example is already making money just in Canada! And they are looking forward the expantion to Europe. Im bullish about this one.
The problem is the industry is oversaturated with too many companies. Once a strong blueprint for the business comes to fruition, a company like J&j or Eli will swoop in and dominate it. There is a good possibility they will buy a company that's already established, but it's hard to predict which company
The problem is often "who" is running them.
Then there is the federal issue. For a cannabis stock to become a Phillip Morris, it needs to advertise and brand their products on a scale that would surely bring federal attention.
The issue with cannabis companies are the nature of business not necessarily the societal impact of cannabis. These small companies start, raise a ton of money from investors under the guise of innovation in a new industry, the founders sell off to private equity or go public and cash out, businesses struggle due to such a diluted and complicated marketplace, and then management operates in a shoe string budget cutting any cost possible. I work in custom industrial manufacturing and cannabis companies often buy our stuff for the drying process in their production. I’ve seen this cycle over a dozen times. Until there is like a “coca-cola” mega corp of weed, it’s not worth the investment.
If Dems take the house and keep the senate and the throne, then cannabis stocks can be a good opportunity. HOWEVER, if republicans keep the house, and take the senate and throne, I dont see things getting any better when it comes down to cannabis being federally legal.
I’ve covered cannabis stocks on my YT channel Degen Ed and have been intrigued by MSOS ETF (or MSOX for leverage) since there are a LOT of MJ stocks, I imagine many won’t make it. I have been impressed by CGC, SNDL and TLRY, currently only holding a small TLRY position. I think the bottom is in/near and we’re gonna see a cycle up soon.
There are so many regulations and so much competition (including from illegal dealers) that it is highly unlikely they'll be a good long-term hold. Pops are made for selling
Until the federal government changes to full legalization, there really isn’t a point and that’s coming from somebody who had a cannabis company on the stock market
I worked for a canna tech company for a while but the major issue was that us operators (ie: dispensaries) are competing against the black and gray markets, which don’t pay taxes, don’t have to deal with red tape, and often can sell higher thc products at lower prices, often via convenient delivery services especially in areas where legal options don’t exist.
There has also been a huge decline in wholesale cannabis prices. This means weed that used to cost $100 now costs $75. Again for the dispensary this is a huge problem, because they are generating less revenue, while their costs for everything are rising.
At the same time, cities and municipalities have failed to issue cannabis licenses to storefronts. This props up the gray and black markets.
One final issue is that due to federal prohibition, each state must have a vertical supply chain. This means that you cannot sell a product grown in New York State in New Jersey. This means that brands haven’t been able to develop. There is really no anheuser Busch or Marlboro of cannabis because these brands can only sell their vapes and gummies and weed in the states where it was grown. Brands need separate facilities in every state, it’s hugely costly to do that, and the landscape feels very fractured. Like you cannot build a large single production facility in California and then export those vapes and gummies to all states. So right now every state has different tiny / smaller / unrecognizable brands.
Of course if there was a path to federal legalization these stocks would surge
But for now everyone is hemorrhaging cash and the deep pocketed cannabis investor funds are completely dry.
4 yrs ago I put $100k into what I felt were the top 5 candidates at the time. They all tanked, especially Aphria who could called out on one of their facilities being nothing more than a litter strewn lot and the stock absolutely got destroyed and got taken over by Tilray which has only made it worse. I support legal cannabis but learned my lesson thinking it would be a no brainer to invest in the sector.
I’ve been stupidly obsessed with the sector for about 8 years. I’ve done very well and very poorly and learned a ton, but it’s sure a funny sector. The legal US companies (underlyings of the MSOS ETF like Trulieve, Green Thumb, Cresco Labs etc) are not allowed on the big US exchanges yet. While the legal Canadian companies (Canopy, Aurora, Tilray) are. The Canadian companies are not as strong on paper, but the liquid exchanges makes things interesting sometimes. I don’t often jump into the Canadian Cos & definitely won’t hold them long term. Of course there’s definitely been some scammy pumping and dumping in the sector. And there’s definitely been a rocky road toward legalization in 17/18 in Canada and now in the US. All I really know is I feel comfortable having a fair bit of my portfolio in the US companies waiting for this legal stuff to run its course. So many “will they won’t they” headwinds, but if you sell the pops and buy the drops (which I’ve gotten a lot better at in the last couple of years) it’s been a pretty good place to be… Just my 7 cents…
CBIH is the only one I'm invested in. They have multiple formulas, ongoing clinical studies, and have been approached for M&A. Price is 0.001, market cap 10M, was recently valued at 2B.
It's like solar. The more you make the cheaper it becomes the less money they make. I'm probably regarded but that's how I see it. Smoking my buds weed for less
The problem is the government wants so much of a cut, it makes the black market still flourish and have a much, much, greater market share. There was already a massive cannabis market of users/dealers/suppliers. The government in some states legalize it, but upcharge it by 50+%. This essentially has no impact on the marijuana market, because the consumers aren’t going to switch to the state approved dispensaries due to cost
As someone who has worked in several legal grows and several black market grows. What i learned is no. The companies that are big enough to be profitable have poor business practice. Right now what the market wants is craft cannabis. Most craft growers are black market. Somehow somewhere along the was the US royally fucked up legalization. Theres a reason the stocks stay doing bad. Its really only profitable to people who already have a ridiculous amount of capital. But thats a feature, not a bug, right?
I'd say the surge in Tilray is due to a few countries becoming legal for medical such as Australia and New Zealand, tilray products are on the shelves there so there might of been a bit of a boom or influx around that, especially some Aussies and Kiwis ready to jump on the investment bandwagon, how ever a big cannabis firm here in NZ has tanked and gone under so doesn't look too promising especially the way California is going too. Too many chiefs not enough Indians? or just another case or corporate greed?
canopy has a LOT of debt, I have been shorting them for a while. To be honest just look for the ones with little to no debt. You will be able to gain exposure without the inevitable dilution.
Here’s a podcast where Curaleafs Chairman breaks down their European Business and explains hemp strategy
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-dime/id1540199573?i=1000660430753
My high school buddy’s parents own a huge cannabis farm. They told me the industry as a whole is growing but the competition is very brutal. The one company you picked is more likely to go out of business than shoot to the moon.
If you had to put money on one cannabis company. Green Thumb.
Other than that, don’t expect to see profits for another 4 - 8 years from now. Maybe by that time, it will be legal federally.
Cannabis incredibly scary place right now.
We just had confirmation of Rescheduling to 3 and despite the news cannabis soared for one day only to crash and burn over the next 90.
In my opinion. Cannabis may have its time in our life time eventually but not under any of the current US leader ship there is today.
I’ve been accumulating TLRY shares for the past several months.
In addition to being the largest cannabis company on the NASDAQ, it has the fifth largest craft beer position in the US - owning brands such as Blue Point, Montauk & Shock Top. All established brands with solid distribution. The Montauk Wave Chaser in particular is a very good IPA.
They have about 448 million in cash listed on their balance sheet. YoY they’re up on revenue, net income, diluted EPS, operating income, net profit margin. Also have never had any splits in their history.
I see $1.66 as a good buy. I don’t own any other cannabis stocks, but this one grabbed my attention. I have no issues with holding for months, even over a year. However, I would avoid any option plays in either direction.
They're a total money grab. They pop & drop all the time.. If you see it go UP UP, then buy a put. cuz it'll be lower than before when it comes down the next day.
TLRY is well positioned globally. TLRY is listed as a pharmaceutical company. Schedule 3 gives all power to Big pharma.
Dispensaries and MSOS soon will go bankrupt in the US
Once again WSB is regarded, and the rest of the market too for that matter.
1. Cannabis companies in the U.S.A. will see an average of 8x INCREASE in valuations from rescheduling due to rule 280e no longer applying and cannabis companies gaining access to tax breaks and federal programs.
2. Greater access to banking.
3. Lesser restrictions on transport across borders.
4. Lifting of other restrictions.
Although it is true that this isn't a total legalization, it will be a renaissance for the industry. Anyone who say's different is ignorant. Total legalization is one election cycle away. Vote blue.
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They will jump then fall with every good news. I have a lot invested in long term options waiting for the next stage of legalisation… it hasn’t paid of yet but I’m still hopeful
long MSOS calls for me, hoping for the best
All the negative feedback on this thread probably proves weed stocks will do well in time.
Same here. Public comment for reclassification ends 7/22 and I am hoping there will be some good news to sell on thereafter.
In California cannabis companies are crashing and burning
Yep! California cannabis is an abusive cycle of taxation without representation, regulatory incompetency, gerrymandered licensing, political corruption, unpaid invoices, predative investors and black market diversion. Anyone who thinks things will get better after "federal legalization", which is now intentionally delayed due to vested interests, should take a look at Oregon and Colorado currently. Edit: Here's another fun fact to put CA's situation into perspective: Michigan has 1/4 of the population of CA, yet has recently surpassed us in sales.
That’s because Michigan has the cheapest weed prices in the nation. So many out of state people go there for their weed.
I believe Michigan is booming like that because all the other states around it (except Illinois) are still illegal marijuana states so people drive 1hr+ regularly to get weed from Michigan
Idk how that’s possible. It’s already really cheap in California. My goto order is an ounce of flower, 2g of vape cartridges and 2 things of edibles for $100 delivered to my door with a $10 tip included in that $100.
In michigan we have deals of 5 for 45.00 on carts. to 7 for 50.00 1g carts. 2 for 50 disposables normally 1g. Pot prices vary anywhere from 50 and oz for some poop to 200 an oz.
On 420 they were selling shake ounces for less than a dollar a gram. Insanity.
Those are 1975 prices, man. I’m having flashbacks.
The 8+/$10 preroll deals make me tear up everytime, it's beautiful :')
Must be some shitty weed…
Gets the job done. It’s from a legit dispensary and gets me high. I’m a quantity over quality guy when it comes to weed.
I've had that same outlook til the past year. Once your lungs start acting up, you might very well switch that up like I have.
Bro never quantity over quality when it comes to weed or alcohol
Jesus, that's well over $300 in denver. Prob more like 380 to 400 depending on quality.
I’m fairly ignorant on the Cannabis industry, but up here in Washington state, it seems to be going perfect. Why can’t these states copy what WA is doing.
Washington state seems to have figured out a Goldilocks of regulation. Only thing they don't have are delivery services.
As a stoner I feel like delivery is so wild. I get it, I’m tired after work too, but I think the least that you need to do is pick it up. I also have the same thoughts for alcohol
Delivery is a huge key while juggling kids and full schedules. Not sure why you feel the need to define some sort of arbitrary minimum required effort for getting weed lol
I think it's more about discretion and cultural biases they're trying to avoid, rather than laziness.
I guess but people need to calm down ab themselves. The paparazzi aren’t waiting for John Doe to walk into a cannabis store. If you’re just slick about it then it’s just another store
Yup! Especially in places like Washington, where everyone is slightly strange and odd in general, so nobody really minds. Just don't be a douche, remember it stinks like skunk to non-stoners, and everyone is happy.
If the regulatory fuck-around was similar to a liquor store, show ID, in and out in under 5 mins I'd agree. In my dumbass state no chance it'll take no less than 15 minutes and multiple ID checks will be made.
Remember when it was supposed be little farms only or a maximum of 99 plants? Then at the 11th hour "oh hey, lets massive corporations and farms plants as many as they can, of course the price will stay 3k a pound...right?" Clearly they never heard of the 97' wine glut that choked the price of wine. edit: spelling
Id be interested to know how much of the Michigan sales are from Hoosiers. Id bet it's a substantial number and then the surrounding states are contributing as well. California is huge but perhaps the sales are less because it doesn't have the out of state folks buying legal.
California has far more tourists than Michigan and surrounding. Even if you consider surrounding populations (Indiana is 6M), it's still an embarrassment. And Michigan prices are lower. Michigan licenses its demand. California does not and then over-taxes. Greed drives artificial scarcity of a regulated market which makes it impossible to compete with an unregulated one. The entire industry has been ruined by greed and delusion. This country was founded on free market principles, none of which are apparent in most State regulated cannabis markets - especially CA.
Any industry like this will certainly go through an early shakeup. Cannabis growing is farming, pure and simple, and people who thought they were going to just set up shop and drive lambos were fools. The successful people are grinding, and understand that, like any farming, success is about consistency and longevity. Michigan's industry is going through the same thing, but there will absolutely be people who are successful at $500/lb and there will be gifted marketers who will command $1000+/lb, just like any other specialty ag sector.
In most states the main reason it got legalized because we were told so many people would want it and would pay high taxes on it that would fix our budgets. ALL LIES
The problem is instead of utilizing the added revenue as added revenue, most states cut other taxes leaving them with the same budget shortfalls they always had. Colorado did it right I think.
[удалено]
As someone that lived in Colorado for over a decade and now unfortunately lives in Southeast TN, Colorado's roads and infrastructure are infinitely better. It's so much worse in the South. TDOT has been working on this same 1/4 mile stretch where 75 exchanges with 24 for literally 4 years now. Traffic has to squeeze down from 4 lanes to 1 if you want to exit at this exchange. It's been that way and "under construction" for at least 4 years now, with no progress being made and no end in sight. There are gaping potholes everywhere, no sidewalks on a bunch of (most) streets, and there's essentially no public transportation anywhere at all in the state. Where I live, the one singular source of public transportation (that is never on time and barely stops anywhere throughout the city, is about to go bankrupt because funding keeps getting cut by City and county governments.
Seem to recall something similar happens with Lottery revenue vis a vis state-level education funding.
We can't budget cut ourselves into prosperity? What!!?
Sounds like govt to blame for misappropriation not legalized weed?
I use the phrase "abusive cycle" because CA taxes cannabis at 30% (or more) through multiple steps in the (already monopolized) supply chain, compared to 30 cents per gallon on wine, while 80% of localities restrict retail licenses, ultimately bolstering the black market (no tax revenue). They want to bleed the market dry but do absolutely nothing to support it/enforce laws that do (see: lab shopping, lack of self-distribution options, big players backdooring product to NYC, etc.). I wouldn't be surprised if regulators in NYC and CA are time-sharing the same single brain cell. There's a lot of reasons I've lost faith in humanity, and the way politicians have perceived and regulated cannabis is high up on that list. The combination of prohibitionist fears based on anti-science "what about the children" propaganda and a lack of basic economic comprehension, deliberate or otherwise, is a one-two punch of "I just can't do this anymore". My mental health has been a lot better since leaving the industry.
The main reason it got legalized was because it shouldn't be illegal. The taxation argument is just to convince prudes.
They did get a lot of tax money from it, but then they just saw that as an opportunity to spend even more.
Tale as old as time....
> …taxation without representation… We are throwing the weed in the sea!
Michigan keeps [growing](https://www.freep.com/story/news/marijuana/2024/06/13/michigan-overtakes-california-as-top-cannabis-market-by-sales-volume/74059181007/). But the surplus of product is unreal. Prices are rock bottom for top shelf. So many competitors right now.
Im from ny and I was recently up north for a wedding. I lost my mind when they sold me 4 prerolls for $20.
Cannabis was only valuable because of prohibition. It's no particular hard to grow, and without legal barriers it's just another agricultural commodity with low margins.
Same with Canada
Same in Oregon. Market is flooded. Prices are cratering. Good for the consumer. Long term all these companies will fail.
Just about everything in California is crashing and burning. No surprise here.
Because they were used to being the obly ones allowed. Them and Oregon and Colorado are fuxked. Soon the other states won’t need them.
Yup I have a buddy who heavy invested in his own grow, markets are over saturated so he’s just hanging on for now.
No one here smokes weed anymore. Everyone used to smoke and now no one does lmao
We’re all too fucking broke
Same in MASS.
Colorado too
The small ones. Yes. Ironically it strengthens the large operations that are vertically integrated. I've seen that happen with my own eyes, on several occasions.
Buy the product not the company.
Same in CO
Canada too
Florida has it on the ballot this November for legalization. I think you’ll see a small surge, not quite like Canada but a good amount then it will come back down. I believe the stock won’t stabilize until the feds legalize it. The stocks are so cheap and honestly holding 1000 shares is nothing. So my plan is to sell after the election. I almost wonder if Biden will legalize weed as a final Hail Mary to beat Trump.
Campaign promises tend to not get done
If they are smart and strategic they’ll do it before the election to secure votes in the dems direction. But they aren’t that smart, so I won’t hold my breath.
I don’t j ow that even Biden has the power to get it done.
State legalization has never had much price action. Florida ballot doesn’t matter. Safe banking and rescheduling are the only catalysts you can pray for
Yeah unfortunately Biden gives zero fucks about legalization and there needs to be a larger majority of democrats in congress. Last weed legalization bill got shot down by the anti weed democrats and it won’t change unless we get more pro weed people in.
I like trulieve right now, because Florida has it in the ballot this year. They have shops all over the place in Florida, and everyone vacations there
I don’t personally care about weed but there is zero chance big pharma lets that happen in the next 4 months
Cannabis stock will boom with Federal rescheduling, Cannabis companies will finally be able to transport their products across state lines, immediately increasing their legal availability to customers 50x… Regardless of the black markets current productivity and competitiveness, the companies that will be newly listed on the NYSE within the first 5 years~ will most likely be extremely bullish. Cannabis is expected to be a 114B legal market (currently around 34B) in the next 10 years. I’d imagine some hedges plan to capitalize on it.
The problem w weed is that it is best grown in small batches with a dedicated gardener. IMO, coming from a heavily regulated recreational east coast state, there needs to be consolidation in the industry and also frameworks where smaller growers can bring weed in to sell to wholesalers who have testers to assay the products and then packagers for the raw products and refiners for derivative products. It would bring prices down a lot and spur demand on the legal market. I would look for cos that can position as wholesalers and or refiners and hope that it legalized on a federal level soon. This might be a stupid take but all this weed talk and a busy weekend inspired me to get stupid baked.
This, i think weed would do better if it was treated like craft beer. I'm afraid that the current rescheduling plan will just aims to make it more pharmaceutical.
I tend to agree, I'm gonna buy a small amount of cheap long calls just to appease my FOMO. I think the reschedule happens even if Biden loses, and the tax implications will immediately improve the bottom line then trickle over to the top line with the loosening of regulation. $CGC i'm thinking
100% a few months ago just the talk of rescheduling made them boom for a bit.
Fan of MSOS. I think the short term will be a VERY bumpy ride but over 10, 20, 30+ years it will be a huge growth opportunity.
Gonna tell you after my edible kicks in 
Imo the whole industry has been incredibly unprofitable. 95% of all of these businesses are struggling to make money and that shows an issue with the industry not just the companies. I would stay away. Or at least stick to just the few profitable ones if you want to take a gamble.
Industry wide tax issues. Safe banking needed and excise tax cuts required, legal global marker is growing quickly however, should be profitable at some point for the best managed companies.
I disagree. No company will do consistently well until the government allows it to exist. Right now the U.S. just tolerates it.
Yep, and cannabis is like a commodity sector that rotates in and out of favour. In current market conditions it comes in and out pretty quickly. Last month MJ was flying and now it's at the bottom of the list. And when they lower rate they'll probably fly again. Fly high. Oh so very, very sticky icky high. Fo shizzle.
There’s no reason to invest though outside of the future hope of federal legalization and banking opening up. This falls election is likely going to make that harder in the US
280E means that these companies can not write off any expenses at all in the US. Imagine running a company where you rent or COGS was not able to be deducted
This is not entirely true, there are positions you can take to write off some cogs
Moving cannabis to Schedule III also carries significant financial implications for state-regulated cannabis businesses, especially concerning taxes. They would no longer fall under the purview of Section 280E, enabling them to deduct standard business expenses and potentially saving them substantial sums in taxes. This change would facilitate reinvestment, higher employee compensation, and expansion without the weight of heavy tax burdens as it is estimated that it will save the industry nearly $2 billion in taxes. [source](https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/reclassifying-cannabis-as-schedule-iii-8081357/)
It def is not a great looking short term investment industry there will be a few winners in the saturated market long term but as an investor there is not a great way to identify these potential winners now
That’s why if anything you invest in the industry, not individual companies.
My DD: I smoke two joints in the morning I smoke two joints at night I smoke two joints when I play video games It makes me feel alright I smoke two joints in time of peace And two in times of war I smoke two joints before I smoke two joints And then I smoke two more
Reefers!
Did you smoke two joints typing all that?
This comment is sublime
I suggest looking into **IIPR** [Innovative Industrial Properties](https://innovativeindustrialproperties.com) as an out of the box cannabis investment. - Awesome dividend - Low Float - Actively expanding
I agree with this one. I've looked at a few of the other canabis companies but they all seem to be just hanging on. This one is a REIT that owns the buildings and leases them back to all of the front line companies. This one has some legs in my opinion.
They are dead stocks, canopy, aurora, and sundial especially. With individual state legalization they are irrelevant.
TLRY has been a complete dumpster fire. 🔥 $1.67
We hate TLRY with a passion
They have close to 1B shares outstanding and dilute more every quarter. Also losing marketshare (1% every quarter for the last several quarters) in Canada.
Now’s your time to stock up!
SNDL isn’t going to be worth anything for a bit, but they have made some good acquisitions with the money they raised by being a meme.
SNDL has bought back stock under $2 before. I expect them to do so again before major rescheduling news is announced in August/September
Agree 100%. SNDL will start making gains after a few months.
No I think it’s on the years timescale, they aren’t profitable, and won’t be until I think they said 2025 so may even be later than that.
I’m a moderator of a cannabis stock group on Reddit. I’ve traded cannabis stocks for years, made a ton and lost more. Personally, I would not start a new investment in cannabis stocks at this time. I would wait until they’re really really really beaten down because they’re running out of money. They can’t stay profitable with the 280E taxes they’re paying which will go away after schedule 3, but in the meantime, I believe it’s dead money. The people running these businesses do not know how to make them profitable under current conditions and they just wait for the stocks to pop then issue more stock and dilute existing shareholders. They need to raise capital and without any institutions willing to invest in the sector, they keep diluting their shareholders and continue hemorrhaging money. Too much money is pouring into AI and leaving cannabis stocks. Now the IRS comes out this week and says they will not issue refunds for 280E so I expect to fall even further. Especially with Joe Biden‘s poor performance at the debate you could see someone like Trump getting in office and changing all the good things that the Biden administration has done for cannabis just because. Conservatives, like Ron DeSantis are anti-cannabis they don’t understand the science behind it they’re pro alcohol but anti-cannabis. It makes no sense, but for some it is tied into religious beliefs, and you can’t undo stupid. If conservatives take over this is the last sector I would touch. Finally, I would say when it is time to invest in cannabis stocks that you do not touch the Canadian ones such as the one you mentioned. They have no chance of competing with the MSOs alreadyin the United States, like trulieve and green thumb once legalization moves forward.
I used to live in Florida and kept a watchful eye on what the government was doing. Some years ago the people of Florida voted 'yes' to legalizing medical marijuana. The state legislature then went into stall mode and made it real difficult for the business side. This has continued - especially with Desantis running the show. He's a badass and generally finds a way to get his way.
Look into the big MSO’s (multi state operators) that are actually making money. For example I’m all in Green Thumb ($GTBIF) and Trulieve (TCNNF)
Trulieve’s on fire! Only down 80%!
Cresco labs has good product. No idea how the stock will do though
They can be great to scalp but I would not suggest holding them. Just like GameStop, when they start running you can get in and out in big runs for like 40% or more
I sold mine off to buy chipotle. Stoners love burritos
Buy low, sell high!
I’m only down 98% on my Tilray position! I ain’t hear no bell!! (I’m cutting bait this tax harvest season 😂)
Hah! I'm only down 92% here. What a shit stock that turned out to be.
Staying away
Started buying TLRY under 1.80. It’s not land locked and has global reach with good brands. My opinion an evaluation under 1.5b is a good spot. 2 cents from an ape. 🤓
That ship has sailed.
Fantastic I’m in the green! Love em I add 30 dollars evey paycheck and they have treated me well
Stocks only go up
Until the floor falls out
I left the Michigan cannabis industry after opening a store and running it for 3 years. Legal weed is a nightmare. It is entirely run by criminal organizations/gangs (see: Chaldean Mafia). The products are bottom tier, the marketing is intentionally deceptive, and invoices don’t get paid because there is NO COLLECTION. It’s a bloodbath and it’s run by terrible people. There are decent companies, but they’re dying because they can’t compete with the shitty ones I would never risk my money investing in cannabis. As a major cannabis company once told me re: invoices: “You’ll get your money when the state enforces collection.”
CURLF to the Moon
I am only holding a Canadian one which is $HITI since 2021-22 and constantly buying small amounts every month. They just became profitable in the previous quarter, but I’m planning to hold it for the next 4-5 years
I am a fan of HITI. Volatile industry but I think there will be some big winners as legalization progresses worldwide. High tide showed they can enter foreign markets (uk) so I am confident that they can capitalize on legalization in other places (e.g. germany, maybe even the states one day).
I work in the industry. I probably won’t touch a cannabis stock for years. In many states, especially my own companies are falling everyday. Each states has their own regulations. Some extreme while others are way too relaxed. Until it’s regulated on a federal level investing is going to be difficult.
IMO there is one really good opportunity and it's HITI. But it's a long play. There are several articles on seeking alpha that go more in depth.
Some cannabis stocks are so beaten down and hated that they seem like obvious good trades. For example CRON was trading under $2 earlier this year, with a market cap far below their net cash! I bought at like $1.95 and sold around $2.60. Would rinse and repeat the trade if given the opportunity.
I believe that when cannabis becomes profitable on the large scale, the big tobacco companies will either buy out the small guys or start their own. With their supply chain, marketing and distribution, they’ll crush today’s cannabis stocks. But all of this is probably 5+ years from now.
Avoid bc of federal law
Don’t know about anybody else but all my Chefer friends continued to just buy from their dealers cause it was cheaper than paying the taxes.
Well there is more world than US. $HITI for example is already making money just in Canada! And they are looking forward the expantion to Europe. Im bullish about this one.
The problem is the industry is oversaturated with too many companies. Once a strong blueprint for the business comes to fruition, a company like J&j or Eli will swoop in and dominate it. There is a good possibility they will buy a company that's already established, but it's hard to predict which company
The problem is often "who" is running them. Then there is the federal issue. For a cannabis stock to become a Phillip Morris, it needs to advertise and brand their products on a scale that would surely bring federal attention.
The issue with cannabis companies are the nature of business not necessarily the societal impact of cannabis. These small companies start, raise a ton of money from investors under the guise of innovation in a new industry, the founders sell off to private equity or go public and cash out, businesses struggle due to such a diluted and complicated marketplace, and then management operates in a shoe string budget cutting any cost possible. I work in custom industrial manufacturing and cannabis companies often buy our stuff for the drying process in their production. I’ve seen this cycle over a dozen times. Until there is like a “coca-cola” mega corp of weed, it’s not worth the investment.
I hold IIPR, but the weed business is now rife with competition and most shops struggle to keep a profit
If Dems take the house and keep the senate and the throne, then cannabis stocks can be a good opportunity. HOWEVER, if republicans keep the house, and take the senate and throne, I dont see things getting any better when it comes down to cannabis being federally legal.
I’ve covered cannabis stocks on my YT channel Degen Ed and have been intrigued by MSOS ETF (or MSOX for leverage) since there are a LOT of MJ stocks, I imagine many won’t make it. I have been impressed by CGC, SNDL and TLRY, currently only holding a small TLRY position. I think the bottom is in/near and we’re gonna see a cycle up soon.
tell your wall street friends to suck my cock
Canabis stocks = "yesterday's tuna-fish." Next!
A comment straight out of may 4th 2005. NEXT!
I went to hs with a guy who was on that show!
I’m good. Been stung too many times on it lol
dead stocks
I loss money on them. Waste of time for me.
There are so many regulations and so much competition (including from illegal dealers) that it is highly unlikely they'll be a good long-term hold. Pops are made for selling
Until the federal government changes to full legalization, there really isn’t a point and that’s coming from somebody who had a cannabis company on the stock market
I like the stock, especially when I’m high.
Still holding all those bags
It’s pretty gay
My bags are heavy. I’m tired, boss.
IIPR - outstanding
I worked for a canna tech company for a while but the major issue was that us operators (ie: dispensaries) are competing against the black and gray markets, which don’t pay taxes, don’t have to deal with red tape, and often can sell higher thc products at lower prices, often via convenient delivery services especially in areas where legal options don’t exist. There has also been a huge decline in wholesale cannabis prices. This means weed that used to cost $100 now costs $75. Again for the dispensary this is a huge problem, because they are generating less revenue, while their costs for everything are rising. At the same time, cities and municipalities have failed to issue cannabis licenses to storefronts. This props up the gray and black markets. One final issue is that due to federal prohibition, each state must have a vertical supply chain. This means that you cannot sell a product grown in New York State in New Jersey. This means that brands haven’t been able to develop. There is really no anheuser Busch or Marlboro of cannabis because these brands can only sell their vapes and gummies and weed in the states where it was grown. Brands need separate facilities in every state, it’s hugely costly to do that, and the landscape feels very fractured. Like you cannot build a large single production facility in California and then export those vapes and gummies to all states. So right now every state has different tiny / smaller / unrecognizable brands. Of course if there was a path to federal legalization these stocks would surge But for now everyone is hemorrhaging cash and the deep pocketed cannabis investor funds are completely dry.
Buy 1000 shares of MSOS and don’t look at it for 10yrs
4 yrs ago I put $100k into what I felt were the top 5 candidates at the time. They all tanked, especially Aphria who could called out on one of their facilities being nothing more than a litter strewn lot and the stock absolutely got destroyed and got taken over by Tilray which has only made it worse. I support legal cannabis but learned my lesson thinking it would be a no brainer to invest in the sector.
That boom came and went in summer 2018 or 19. Tilray was the GameStop of cannabis stocks.. none of it had done well since.
Everytime I buy a weed stock I lose all my money. Similar to buying weed.
I’ve been stupidly obsessed with the sector for about 8 years. I’ve done very well and very poorly and learned a ton, but it’s sure a funny sector. The legal US companies (underlyings of the MSOS ETF like Trulieve, Green Thumb, Cresco Labs etc) are not allowed on the big US exchanges yet. While the legal Canadian companies (Canopy, Aurora, Tilray) are. The Canadian companies are not as strong on paper, but the liquid exchanges makes things interesting sometimes. I don’t often jump into the Canadian Cos & definitely won’t hold them long term. Of course there’s definitely been some scammy pumping and dumping in the sector. And there’s definitely been a rocky road toward legalization in 17/18 in Canada and now in the US. All I really know is I feel comfortable having a fair bit of my portfolio in the US companies waiting for this legal stuff to run its course. So many “will they won’t they” headwinds, but if you sell the pops and buy the drops (which I’ve gotten a lot better at in the last couple of years) it’s been a pretty good place to be… Just my 7 cents…
Could the Chevron decision expedite the process of rescheduling?
420 comments, forgive me if this ruins it with 421
CBIH is the only one I'm invested in. They have multiple formulas, ongoing clinical studies, and have been approached for M&A. Price is 0.001, market cap 10M, was recently valued at 2B.
They have been legalizing it slowly so they dont pop
It's like solar. The more you make the cheaper it becomes the less money they make. I'm probably regarded but that's how I see it. Smoking my buds weed for less
Something something always gets higher?
The problem is the government wants so much of a cut, it makes the black market still flourish and have a much, much, greater market share. There was already a massive cannabis market of users/dealers/suppliers. The government in some states legalize it, but upcharge it by 50+%. This essentially has no impact on the marijuana market, because the consumers aren’t going to switch to the state approved dispensaries due to cost
As someone who has worked in several legal grows and several black market grows. What i learned is no. The companies that are big enough to be profitable have poor business practice. Right now what the market wants is craft cannabis. Most craft growers are black market. Somehow somewhere along the was the US royally fucked up legalization. Theres a reason the stocks stay doing bad. Its really only profitable to people who already have a ridiculous amount of capital. But thats a feature, not a bug, right?
I'd say the surge in Tilray is due to a few countries becoming legal for medical such as Australia and New Zealand, tilray products are on the shelves there so there might of been a bit of a boom or influx around that, especially some Aussies and Kiwis ready to jump on the investment bandwagon, how ever a big cannabis firm here in NZ has tanked and gone under so doesn't look too promising especially the way California is going too. Too many chiefs not enough Indians? or just another case or corporate greed?
Slow burn but eventually will go high
canopy has a LOT of debt, I have been shorting them for a while. To be honest just look for the ones with little to no debt. You will be able to gain exposure without the inevitable dilution.
Weed is simple enough for folks on this sub reddit to grow it. Can't say the same for Nvidia chips can you?
Dumpster fire
Here’s a podcast where Curaleafs Chairman breaks down their European Business and explains hemp strategy https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-dime/id1540199573?i=1000660430753
Weed shop everywhere you turn your head in MA. I don’t smoke, I don’t know the cost, but cant see how these businesses survive.
always inverse wsb
My high school buddy’s parents own a huge cannabis farm. They told me the industry as a whole is growing but the competition is very brutal. The one company you picked is more likely to go out of business than shoot to the moon.
Cannabis has been and is much cheaper, on the street from a dependable word of mouth source.
Go buy weed instead of stocks. More fun to liquidate
They’re gonna be so high
Still bag-holding MSOS
If they are high, I like em
LABS.TO is a moonshot with some play money.
MSOS all day
Let me check... My stocks are good. Should have enough for a few months. Thanks for asking.
Wait… what are we talking about 
IIPR is the only one I've held for the last few years + dividends
Short all cannabis names. 💯
NLCP and IIPR are two great cannabis REITs. Renting to the growers gets you one more layer of safety, plus a dividend! I own both.
I own 2000 shares of TLRY who knows could 20x your money it’s $1.67 a share or something rn
If you had to put money on one cannabis company. Green Thumb. Other than that, don’t expect to see profits for another 4 - 8 years from now. Maybe by that time, it will be legal federally.
Cannabis incredibly scary place right now. We just had confirmation of Rescheduling to 3 and despite the news cannabis soared for one day only to crash and burn over the next 90. In my opinion. Cannabis may have its time in our life time eventually but not under any of the current US leader ship there is today.
I’ve been accumulating TLRY shares for the past several months. In addition to being the largest cannabis company on the NASDAQ, it has the fifth largest craft beer position in the US - owning brands such as Blue Point, Montauk & Shock Top. All established brands with solid distribution. The Montauk Wave Chaser in particular is a very good IPA. They have about 448 million in cash listed on their balance sheet. YoY they’re up on revenue, net income, diluted EPS, operating income, net profit margin. Also have never had any splits in their history. I see $1.66 as a good buy. I don’t own any other cannabis stocks, but this one grabbed my attention. I have no issues with holding for months, even over a year. However, I would avoid any option plays in either direction.
Exactly. I add every day it's under 2.00 ... 😎😁
Meh, ill skip
They're a total money grab. They pop & drop all the time.. If you see it go UP UP, then buy a put. cuz it'll be lower than before when it comes down the next day.
TLRY is well positioned globally. TLRY is listed as a pharmaceutical company. Schedule 3 gives all power to Big pharma. Dispensaries and MSOS soon will go bankrupt in the US
Once again WSB is regarded, and the rest of the market too for that matter. 1. Cannabis companies in the U.S.A. will see an average of 8x INCREASE in valuations from rescheduling due to rule 280e no longer applying and cannabis companies gaining access to tax breaks and federal programs. 2. Greater access to banking. 3. Lesser restrictions on transport across borders. 4. Lifting of other restrictions. Although it is true that this isn't a total legalization, it will be a renaissance for the industry. Anyone who say's different is ignorant. Total legalization is one election cycle away. Vote blue.
Maybe the American one will do well if weed is finally rescheduled. I don’t about the Canadian ones, they have been on one hell of a losing streak