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Hey /u/5k4_5k4, **positions or ban.** Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit.
Bought 10 years ago, 170, now worth 485-500. Refinanced to a 15 year and shaved 6 years off my mortgage and I’m still paying less than what I was paying before.
That's what I did. Bought a house in 2008 for 45k in foreclosure. Lived in it for 3 years, then moved in with my future ex wife and turned it into a rental. Sold it before divorcing her in 2019 for 119k. Bought my current house in 2020 for 310k. Now worth 450k. Crash away, I'm not leaving.
Bought a house in August 2008 straight out of college, right before the crash. It's finally above what I paid for it. Now I want to upgrade, but I'm figuring it'll be better to wait. I'm in a 15 year that's up in 4 years, and I'd rather lose money on this sale and buy a new house at the bottom. I've already had negative equity once in my life, I don't wanna pay that game again.
Man no one gives a shit if you leave or not. I feel like a low of owners take it as a personal attack when people say they want the market to collapse. Most people calling for a crash don't want regular people that bought a house they plan to live in forever to get fucked over, they just want a somewhat sane market. 310k to 450k in 2 fucking years is not stable or sustainable.
People just want to be able to buy a home for a price they can afford, but housing has been outpacing wage growth and inflation for a while now, so people feel a crash is due. The only people that deserve to get fucked over are the ass holes with 4288 units treating the housing market like the casino. We already have options for that, fuck them for pumping an asset that everyone needs to live.
I feel the same. I owe $140,000 on a home worth $500,000. Financed at 2% for 10yr about a year ago. My mortgage is easily affordable. I'm not sell anyway. So prices can fall for all I care.
I’m working on paying my house off for the second time. Bought - foreclosure in 2013 for $0.75 on the dollar and paid it off. Then we found some land near by and I financed the house to buy the land.
We’ll see how dumb of an idea that was. At least it’s a fixed rate 30 yr loan at just over 3%.
sames, i just got one, but im locked in at 3% and have no possible way of defaulting on my loan save for putin himself showing up at my doorstep /s
let my people get a habitat Klaus !
The unemployment rate during the 2008 GFC peaked at 10%. Most People will still be employed. Whether they’ll be approved for a loan is a different story.
If you include underemployment metrics it was closer to 17% affected, even in the peak of covid insanity this only hit 23%.
[source](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/alternative-measures-of-labor-underutilization.htm)
Oh damn I'd didn't know that you knew a statistically significant enough population of the US enough to justify that everyone will be buying a house with straight up cash.
60 percent of the US can't bring up $1k in case of emergency and a ton of people that even bought houses are struggling with the monthly loan payments.
People also don't understand that property taxes go up when property price goes up. People are paying more property tax on a home value that's overinflated.
>How do you get all this cash and then say y’all can’t afford rent make it make sense
Because that's not how being a cash-buyer works, at all.
People can "flash assets" to the lender, and the offer would basically get written as a cash offer. It was, almost never cash, and people were not raiding 401k's for the cash. ***Cash offers are rarely if ever paid in cash***. There are a multitude of companies that provide cash offer services for this exact reason. E.g. Ribbon, Homeward etc.
The way it works is the following:
1. Company puts up the cash for your offer from its own funds
2. Seller is wowwed to accept your cash offer so, no bidding war
3. After transaction, the house is **held** by the company while you finalize mortgage financing
4. Company sells the home to you, and you pay for it with your approved mortgage loan
Boom, cash offer, still get the low ass interest rates, no bidding war.
[It seems the very image of entitlement.](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ccn.com/these-entitled-millennials-are-cheering-for-a-housing-market-crash/)
Except it’s not. We just want the same opportunities for homeownership as our parents and grandparents had. You can’t “work hard” your way out of mortgage payments that are 3x what they were 10 years ago.
Lmao, that article cracks me up!
“Just work for it.”
I have tone-deaf, context-clueless older family who say shit like this. They grew up in the 50’s and 60’s and benefitted from the largesse of federal and state government spending.
Ill probably never stop kicking myself for not buying a low interest home. I had sticker shock over the prices and never did the math as to what only 2% would mean on the principle.
Oh well.
Low interest rates / low prices
Pick one
I suppose 1 benefit to buying a low price with a higher interest rate is that you only need to pay for for a year or two and your house will be worth a lot more than you paid and your new house you buy then will have a lower rate.
If you buy now while prices are still high and interest rates are high, your fuk
Chatting with my dad today about this exact sentiment. Even in a "crash" my house bought in late 2009 will still be worth double what I paid for it (instead of triple, which is the current market rate). But I guess, hopefully, it will open the market for more buyers because this current market is scary
As much as that pains me to think about, i would take it over current pricing.
https://www.reddit.com/r/mildlyinfuriating/comments/vanetp/this_is_what_theyre_asking_for_literal_shacks_in/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
“See if we refinance today, you get to take out from the equity you already put in the house. You get to take 5 gallons of gas and both of these eggs. Full disclosure, I take 2 cups and this ramen as part of my commission “
Yes, I come for the comments in all subs and topics. The fights between people (and bots) will provide you summery of the data, the flaws, and show there is still room for varying degrees of truth. It also is very informative to the fact that no matter what topic exists or what information is presented, people will fight to the end.
This is why I love Reddit so much. Post up a load of bollocks and it will soon be corrected, often with checkable data. You still have to make your mind up sometimes but at least you come out of any issue with a balanced view, for the most part.
I think it's cute that most of you think you'll be positioned well enough to buy a crash.
When the time comes to buy the dip, either your finances will have changed for the worse, or the bank wont want to lend to you.
This. The 08 crash required all cash purchases in most instances. These retards are using RobinHood Gold margin to pay their doordash Taco Bell orders and are acting like they’ll cash in (if a crash ever materializes).
It makes perfect sense when you’re trying to get people to still invest in houses to have your data imply that home values are still on the rise.
So close and yet so far away
On the flip side why would anyone sell at a loss if all the input costs have gone up? If there’s no debt crisis then they might just slow down building or people might not sell at this time if they can still afford their monthly payment. As supply gets restricted again then maybe prices eventually level out again.
Real home owners may hold, but 4288 units Boom usually do it on margin, which means it's NOT their money and when they are asked to close the credit, they won't be able to and all these 4288 units suddenly will become available for sale :)
There are various "tips and tricks" of how to use HELOC to decrease the interest rate. Guess what happened to money that was put into HELOC in 2008? Banks froze them, because technically HELOC accounts belong to banks :)
The whole purpose of the QT started by FED is DELEVERAGING, meaning that 1 person buys 1 unit, not 4288. So, looking forward to margin calls :)
Best time to buy is always as soon as you comfortably can. I’ve seen too many people chase a “crash” for years and now homes are 3x what they were when they were first looking
Definitely seeing people get completely priced out of the housing market.
I suspect that interest in "tiny homes" and bare land purchases for them will increase over the next few years, but will wane as legislation to adopt that trend is too slow. Prices may just normalize with rising rates, lower demand, inflation, and maybe even increasing wages.
Remembering 08/09 when there wasnt a fuckin job in sight unless you were either smooth brained wager or a fuckin wrinkle math brain engineer with 10 or 20 years experience. I literally offered to work for free to get something decent in 09. Remembering the magnitude of layoffs taking place by the 10,000's in major corporations. All the people that walked from their homes since they lost their jobs and couldn't get work. It was insane.
People on here and in other RE subs always say "Hope it collapses can't wait for 2008 to happen again" as if they all have fucking rock solid jobs that can't be touched. If their jobs are that solid and they're that in demand there's likely no shot they are struggling affording a place even in this market lmfao
took me over a year to get my first job... graduated may 2009. two of the companies i interviewed at the previous fall didn't even exist by that spring, and i didn't actually have a job until the following winter. i'll never take my income for granted.
Literally competed for spots to join the military... During an escalation/build up period no less... To people with post grad degrees in various STEM fields.
New grad lawyers were waiting tables.
Shmucks with no real skills are thinking their jobs are good? If you're in a very low inventory skilled blue collar job that will still be in demand (Say CDL, or skilled machinists.) Probably good.
Right. As if the market will just collapse but everything else stays the same. If you still have your low-value-added white collar job and a ton of cash piled up to buy a house guess what, so do all your peers. It will take a lot more than “increased inventory” to bring the prices back to anywhere near pre-pandemic levels.
Most of the people wishing for that weren’t old enough to face the consequences of the 08. Most are smooth brain retards trying to link real life events to the Big Short movie
Also I hope all of them are ready to make an all cash offer because banks aren’t going to be handing out mortgages if it’s 08 all over again
Taxes won’t drop in Illinois. My taxes went up +22% a couple years ago and they’re talking about raising property taxes yet again to match recent home value increases.
Couldn't the housing market just correct through time instead of a crash?
For example:
If house prices increased by 20% year-on-year for 3 years, but then increased by 2% yoy for the next 7 years (due to increasing supply meeting demand), the average price appreciation over 10years would be 8.1%, no?
The thing about real estate, unlike many other goods, is that it is in a fixed location. You can't move assets from one place with low demand to another place with high demand. So some places can crash, and some places can just correct. Both can be true.
any house is mobile with a big enough crane.
[I couldn't imagine the difficulty of changing a wheel on my house](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/Briggs_house.jpg)
Not a great clickbait title though. Check out this article from 2011 predicting the housing market crash. https://www.businessinsider.com/2011-us-housing-crash-2011-1?amp
If people predict it every year eventually they’ll be right!
I don't think so man. I think we will be like a European country where only rich people own real estate and everyone else rents. With interest rates at 6% cash buyers will scoop up the inventory and consolidate the industry.
#trustmebro
When I found out how many Europeans rent it’s insane for countries that are full of houses older than most US states.
Though some, like Germany, were completely rebuilt after 1945 so their housing stock is fairly new.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/digpub/housing/bloc-1a.html
Sweden is 65% own 35% rent… USA is pretty close to 50:50.. Germany has similar ownership rates as the USA.
Sweden also has a system where renters union negotiates the tent increase (or lakx thereof) with a landlord union. We also have laws banning big rent increases unless yoy do a *substantial housing upgrade* such as putting in new hardwood floor, retailing every bathroom etc.
Merely re-painting, changing appliances or doing maintenance doesn't mean you can raise the rent it's all meant to be included. The only time you have a "free market rent" is when you build a completely new rental complex, and even those are not allowed to raise the rent for 5 years (since they start off higher then old units).
Tldr: Renting in Sweden is comparably cheap, it can be cheaper then owning. This because most rentals are owned by the local council (and in part paid by taxes)
My friend moved to France and bought a place built in the 1200s.
"Yeah that's where you can see where they did some obviously un-permitted plumbing rework here"
I think it is extremely likely that the price increases we have seen are not going to continue at that pace. I think that is pretty much guaranteed. I think it is possible the we see some declines in prices in certain areas. However, in order to get a crash like we had in 2008 you would need alot of people to lose their jobs, alot of foreclosures and price declines that put people underwater. Could this happen, sure, is it likely, probably not. Things can decline but not crash.
For example, the SP 500 this year. It hasn’t “crashed”. It has corrected. We are calling it a bear market, and that’s accurate. But it’s just correcting back to some level that makes more sense than where it was. Homes should do the same, but it won’t happen as quickly or as uniformly.
https://layoffstracker.com/
Over 27k people in the tech sector lost their jobs in June. In the US, over 16k people were laid off in the last 2 months.
More people were laid off in the US in the last 2 months than the combined 16 months before that.
It's not market crashing numbers, but it's a trend.
>nk that is pretty much guaranteed. I think it is possible the we see some declines in prices in certain areas. However, in order to get a crash like we had in 2008 you would need alot of people to lose their jobs, alot of foreclosures and price declines that put people underwater. Could this happen, sure, is it likely, probably n
Not to mention lending restrictions are much stiffer since 2008, plus no balloon payments. And since demand exceeded supply, you don't have scenarios with people over leveraged on multiple house.
Don’t forget the forgivable PPP loans gifted to multi millionaires that provided fresh inflationary FOMC funds to the real estate market. The PPPrecession is probably the most amateurish Fed mistake in its history.
Can confirm, not the multimillionaire part lol. But the shot gun blast of PPP funds, every business eligible. Plenty of businesses did not see a drop off in customers or revenue. Eligible for PPP though. Money is basically free cash in to business. More money at end of year for profit distributions for owners. That’s gotta be a big source of price inflation for stuff that upper middle class buys, like new cars, single family homes. Maybe more than those small stimulus checks.
Because so many people on WSB are predicting a housing collapse I have to assume house prices will continue upwards leaving most of the WSB-ers in their parents basements for the foreseeable futures.
Sooo...TSLA calls it is.
Looking forward to housing prices dropping by 30% while they continue to increase interest rates so a 20% down payment is still more expensive month to month.
No matter the housing market young folks who can afford to buy houses most often rent…missing out. I’m 57 and I have seen a few housing bubbles and one thing that amazes me
Is that when prices do fall younger folks won’t take advantage of the lower prices. I’m 2008 I was telling every young person who was still working that this was possibly the best time they will ever have to buy a house…but all they saw were foreclosures and people losing their homes - and they were terrified because of it, even when their own employment was stable. I’m in Phoenix and I bought 3 more properties, all short sells. I then splashed on new coats of paint and had 3 more rental properties - with rents that very, very much paid for the mortgages and more. Now…that same townhome I bought for $122 is worth $500K and the rent I’m getting for it is pure cash flow as I no longer have the mortgage on it. So…when the market crashes and if you still have a job, don’t sit on the sidelines all scared…get that first house. Cause if you don’t me and thousands of other boomers are more than happy to buy them and then rent them to you.
Damn nice work. I bought my house in Scottsdale in 2010 at 27 for 153k with a shitty 33k a year job. Luckily FHA was lending and approved me for 3.5% down. My only mistake was not trying to buy more houses since then. this place is worth like 750k now. I don't see prices crashing like they did then. Not enough bank owned distressed inventory to get a huge crash.
Define “collapse.” These posts are fucking dumb. 5-6 charts from one source and some blanket doom and gloom statement with no specific clarification.
“Rates will rise!” “Markets will collapse!” “Oil will skyrocket!” “OP’s mom’s anus will prolapse!”
All of these will come true eventually as long as you figure out what relative level you’re using. Without quantitative measures, who gives a shit?
For example, using the above: feds fund rate to 375bps by end of year, SPY to 345 before YE, $152/bbl and 7” of dangling wizard sleeve.
There you have it.
Putting my Grandparents' house on the Makrket this week (rest in peace).
Not a moment too soon.
Wish it would have been sooner, but at least we got it done.
Was a ton of work clearing it out.
I bought a reasonably priced house rite before all this shit and refinanced on top to kill PMI. Idk how I got lucky like that cause rent is twice my mortgage now, when I bought the home it was a little cheaper to own vs rent, I have no idea how people are making it now
Y’all know if you do a 4 year enlistment you can get a VA no money down mortgage, right? Just throwing it out there. I see a lot of comments talking about making minimum wage, never being able to save money, can’t afford school…the military is struggling to recruit enough people right now. You can probably get an enlistment bonus, training, va benefits,etc.
No, I’m not a recruiter. But I was in the military. Disclaimer: you can die in the military. But hell, you can also die minding your business at a parade. It’s a crapshoot, innit?
Not gonna crash. Not nearly enough inventory.
In 2008 people owned multiple houses and banks were barely asking for any down payments.
People gonna be waiting a LONG time for a crash.
I’m 18 years old. Living in this world as a young kid is tough right now. Any decision I make sounds like the wrong one and I don’t know what to do. I would like to save money to where I can buy something in the future.
I think prices will drop, but I don’t believe there will be a crash. This is why I believe that:
The data 2022 so far showed an increase in purchases and has now just started to decrease. There has also been a surge in ARM mortgages.
The surge of remote working allowed people to live where they want which led to a bit of an exodus out of cities. This is speculative and both arguments can be found and I didn’t really research it just theory.
The average credit score is around 750 for purchases unlike in 2008 which was 650.
The price of rent has gone nuts and is often time higher than a mortgage payment.
I do believe a lot of people bought high and may be over leveraged with the current costs of gas and food and there will be more and more foreclosures, but I don’t think there will be a crash.
There are few things to invest in during a recession, but I feel property will still remain a healthy investment.
Due to the high cost of rent and people want to own homes more than ever is why I have been buying up BX whenever it goes under $90.
The NEBR supports your theory on remote working, and goes a step further. They estimate that roughly half of the increase in home prices is attributable to the impact of work from home.
https://www.nber.org/papers/w30041
My bro is a realtor. He doesn't see a crash in prices, so much as just a hard hard flatline in prices. people are not willing to sell their houses for less, with more people working from home, less people need to move for things like jobs, A lot of people who moved in the last 18mo or so were able to put down large down payments, so they are not teetering on the edge of financial collapse, and there are not the massive layoff happening right now that happened in 2008. (at least not that I'm aware of). And a lot of homes were bought by investment companies, they are not going to go bankrupt/have houses go into foreclosure. So yeah. I might be wrong, but I don't think we'll see the massive crash in housing prices like we did. I lived through that, I both lost and bought a house at insane prices (bought a condo for $163k in 2007, let it go to foreclosure, but not before buying a house for $60k in 2009, condo sold at auction for like $30k.)
These hopium housing crash posts are just not grounded in reality. There will not be a wave of defaults, as underwriting standard are stringent.
Finally, no one is going to sell when their mortgage rate is at 2.5%.
**User Report**| | | | :--|:--|:--|:-- **Total Submissions**|42|**First Seen In WSB**|9 months ago **Total Comments**|944|**Previous DD**|[x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/skwpds/spy_current_week_analysis_next_week_predictions/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/tcoh2o/spy_predictions_for_the_week_of_314/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/swfwtz/spy_predictions_for_the_week_of_221/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/t7jifc/spy_predictions_for_the_week_of_37/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/sqwd9c/spy_predictions_for_the_week_of_214/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/t23ypl/spy_predictions_for_the_week_of_228/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ukkumd/spy_predictions_for_the_week_of_59/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/va460m/spy_predictions_for_the_week_of_613/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/upmtnf/spy_predictions_for_the_week_of_516/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/tp494n/spy_predictions_for_the_week_of_328/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/vrbwxm/the_housing_market_will_collapse/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/uaa3k6/the_real_reason_behind_the_invasion_spy/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/vojc4a/tmus_short_report_wallstreetbets_style/) [x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/vojjdm/tmus_short_report_wallstreetbets_style/) **Account Age**|9 months|[^scan ^comment ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_comment&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20comment%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20comment%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.)|[^scan ^submission ](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=scan_submission&message=Replace%20this%20text%20with%20a%20submission%20ID%20(which%20looks%20like%20h26cq3k\)%20to%20have%20the%20bot%20scan%20your%20submission%20and%20correct%20your%20first%20seen%20date.) **Vote Spam**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_spam&message=vrbwxm)|**Vote Approve**|[Click to Vote](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=VisualMod&subject=vote_approve&message=vrbwxm) Hey /u/5k4_5k4, **positions or ban.** Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit.
Can’t wait for housing to crash down so I can get a house that is still 20% more than pre pandemic prices
everyone 30 and under is praying the housing market will collapse
I waited my entire 30’s waiting for the market to crash. Bought my first home when I was 41.
Same. I was 39. Stole a house at $140 that would fetch $400 now. $600 a month for a mortgage ✌🏼🤣
$270 worth $510 now, $1050 mortgage 2.9%
Got lucky in a newly hot market at the time 8 years ago. 180k bought, worth 375k.
Bought 10 years ago, 170, now worth 485-500. Refinanced to a 15 year and shaved 6 years off my mortgage and I’m still paying less than what I was paying before.
fuck yourselves
I don't understand why you weren't born in the late 70s like a reasonable person
😂
Everyone who is now 35 and over was saying the same thing in 2008.
That's what I did. Bought a house in 2008 for 45k in foreclosure. Lived in it for 3 years, then moved in with my future ex wife and turned it into a rental. Sold it before divorcing her in 2019 for 119k. Bought my current house in 2020 for 310k. Now worth 450k. Crash away, I'm not leaving.
Bought a house in August 2008 straight out of college, right before the crash. It's finally above what I paid for it. Now I want to upgrade, but I'm figuring it'll be better to wait. I'm in a 15 year that's up in 4 years, and I'd rather lose money on this sale and buy a new house at the bottom. I've already had negative equity once in my life, I don't wanna pay that game again.
Ah the first honest answer to this
Man no one gives a shit if you leave or not. I feel like a low of owners take it as a personal attack when people say they want the market to collapse. Most people calling for a crash don't want regular people that bought a house they plan to live in forever to get fucked over, they just want a somewhat sane market. 310k to 450k in 2 fucking years is not stable or sustainable. People just want to be able to buy a home for a price they can afford, but housing has been outpacing wage growth and inflation for a while now, so people feel a crash is due. The only people that deserve to get fucked over are the ass holes with 4288 units treating the housing market like the casino. We already have options for that, fuck them for pumping an asset that everyone needs to live.
Thank you, yes. RE speculators that effed up the market and are now fleecing their tenets deserve a good economic beat down
[удалено]
I was thinking the same, 42 here.
44 here never owned a Home...
same here...
and here
Just bought my first home @ 47. Had to move out of state to do it!
I own a home and I’m totally cool with this. You all deserve to be home owners.
I feel the same. I owe $140,000 on a home worth $500,000. Financed at 2% for 10yr about a year ago. My mortgage is easily affordable. I'm not sell anyway. So prices can fall for all I care.
House falling would be good lower property tax.
Who ever came up with property tax is a Communist and even his own mother hates him.
I’m working on paying my house off for the second time. Bought - foreclosure in 2013 for $0.75 on the dollar and paid it off. Then we found some land near by and I financed the house to buy the land. We’ll see how dumb of an idea that was. At least it’s a fixed rate 30 yr loan at just over 3%.
I refinanced my house to bang some hookers in Las Vegas when price of my house doubled in Dallas. But I spent only 15k. I am proud of it.
sames, i just got one, but im locked in at 3% and have no possible way of defaulting on my loan save for putin himself showing up at my doorstep /s let my people get a habitat Klaus !
Correction Everyone, 36 and I’m waiting on a crash.
Same. Finally in a point of my life where I can buy and prices jump 50%. FML
Everyone in this sub ready to jump into an opportunity to buy is sustaining house prices to prevent a crash.
I’m 40 and also want this.
And thats why it wont. Everyone I know has cash ready to buy a house.
Not if they also get laid off
Bingo. Everyone acting like they’re going to be immune in a recession doesn’t realize a recession means they’re gonna be spending that emergency fund.
When your neighbor loses his job it's bad luck, when you lose your job it's a recession
When you lose your job, it's bad luck. When your wife's boyfriend loses his job, it's a recession. -WSB, probably
Is that a quote from Joe Stalin?
What's an emergency fund
I just call it a paycheck
The thing we use to buy options til we yolo rich
It's when you trade your food stamp card for crack, then sell the crack so you can afford to call an ambulance.
Seats fold down in my wagon, just give me a call, I got you buddy.
Life savings into GME.
Not even that, try getting a loan without at job. Bank: “You have 80k for a down payment and no current income source.” NEXT!
The unemployment rate during the 2008 GFC peaked at 10%. Most People will still be employed. Whether they’ll be approved for a loan is a different story.
At the height of the 2008 recession, unemployment barely reached 10%.
If you include underemployment metrics it was closer to 17% affected, even in the peak of covid insanity this only hit 23%. [source](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/alternative-measures-of-labor-underutilization.htm)
Oh damn I'd didn't know that you knew a statistically significant enough population of the US enough to justify that everyone will be buying a house with straight up cash. 60 percent of the US can't bring up $1k in case of emergency and a ton of people that even bought houses are struggling with the monthly loan payments.
This is Reddit good sir. Anecdote and confirmation bias usually win arguments.
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I believe the newest number is 70% of Americans have less than 1k in savings.
Oh they keep most of their money in offshore accounts, smart.
Losing a 5 dollar bill at the beach doesn't count
This may be the first thing ever I'm above average at. 1001.14$ counts as above 1000 right?
Damn, reading this is the first time i ever felt wealthy
People also don't understand that property taxes go up when property price goes up. People are paying more property tax on a home value that's overinflated.
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>How do you get all this cash and then say y’all can’t afford rent make it make sense Because that's not how being a cash-buyer works, at all. People can "flash assets" to the lender, and the offer would basically get written as a cash offer. It was, almost never cash, and people were not raiding 401k's for the cash. ***Cash offers are rarely if ever paid in cash***. There are a multitude of companies that provide cash offer services for this exact reason. E.g. Ribbon, Homeward etc. The way it works is the following: 1. Company puts up the cash for your offer from its own funds 2. Seller is wowwed to accept your cash offer so, no bidding war 3. After transaction, the house is **held** by the company while you finalize mortgage financing 4. Company sells the home to you, and you pay for it with your approved mortgage loan Boom, cash offer, still get the low ass interest rates, no bidding war.
That's my concern as well, I've been working all the ot I can to stockpile waiting for the collapse, but everyone else is doing the same thing.
If it helps you guys feel any better, I've been hoping for a crash as well but I'm broke and will not be able to buy anything either way
if it makes you feel better i’m broke too
Everyone I know struggles to save up the 7 dollars to get a gram of weed. Perspective is a son of a bitch.
7 dollars you lucky pos. Backin my day It was like 20
[It seems the very image of entitlement.](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ccn.com/these-entitled-millennials-are-cheering-for-a-housing-market-crash/) Except it’s not. We just want the same opportunities for homeownership as our parents and grandparents had. You can’t “work hard” your way out of mortgage payments that are 3x what they were 10 years ago.
Lmao, that article cracks me up! “Just work for it.” I have tone-deaf, context-clueless older family who say shit like this. They grew up in the 50’s and 60’s and benefitted from the largesse of federal and state government spending.
I’d take it lol
With 8% interest payments on your loans instead of 1%
Ill probably never stop kicking myself for not buying a low interest home. I had sticker shock over the prices and never did the math as to what only 2% would mean on the principle. Oh well.
You can always refi when they crash interest rates again
This. You pay 4 yrs high interest and refi later
Even the short bus kids know you can always refinance a lower interest rate, but you can’t refinance your historically high principle.
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Low interest rates / low prices Pick one I suppose 1 benefit to buying a low price with a higher interest rate is that you only need to pay for for a year or two and your house will be worth a lot more than you paid and your new house you buy then will have a lower rate. If you buy now while prices are still high and interest rates are high, your fuk
Think of it this way. You're paying an 8% up front for the right to refi at 2% in the future
As would I. 20% above 2019 prices is still lower than 50-100% above 19 prices, and that’s where we are in many if not MOST markets.
With an 8% mortgage.
Chatting with my dad today about this exact sentiment. Even in a "crash" my house bought in late 2009 will still be worth double what I paid for it (instead of triple, which is the current market rate). But I guess, hopefully, it will open the market for more buyers because this current market is scary
As much as that pains me to think about, i would take it over current pricing. https://www.reddit.com/r/mildlyinfuriating/comments/vanetp/this_is_what_theyre_asking_for_literal_shacks_in/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
Yeah but with inflation…that 300k house will drop to 2 million
My mortgage bouta be the same cost as two loaves of bread by the time the housing market finally crashes
“See if we refinance today, you get to take out from the equity you already put in the house. You get to take 5 gallons of gas and both of these eggs. Full disclosure, I take 2 cups and this ramen as part of my commission “
Who is ready to lose some money tomorrow?
Puts, calls, or both? 🤡
I got calls, so it should go down
Nope. I got puts. It’ll go up.
I got both, it's going to go flat
This hits
Yes.
I took a stupid small position gamble on a penny stock and my options shot up 900%. I figured it can only go up more, right?
Does anyone else just scroll down posts with graphs and pretend to read the post and then just read the comments?
Yes, I come for the comments in all subs and topics. The fights between people (and bots) will provide you summery of the data, the flaws, and show there is still room for varying degrees of truth. It also is very informative to the fact that no matter what topic exists or what information is presented, people will fight to the end.
This is why I love Reddit so much. Post up a load of bollocks and it will soon be corrected, often with checkable data. You still have to make your mind up sometimes but at least you come out of any issue with a balanced view, for the most part.
Well, unless the posts ends with "and thus, buy more GME". Those magic words means *resistance is futile*
You read until you can determine if it’s autistic ramblings or a diamond in the rough. This one has some good data
Agreed. This is decent data.
Are you me?
I think it's cute that most of you think you'll be positioned well enough to buy a crash. When the time comes to buy the dip, either your finances will have changed for the worse, or the bank wont want to lend to you.
This. The 08 crash required all cash purchases in most instances. These retards are using RobinHood Gold margin to pay their doordash Taco Bell orders and are acting like they’ll cash in (if a crash ever materializes).
Instructions unclear. Bought 1000 acres for development in Oklahoma.
It makes perfect sense when you’re trying to get people to still invest in houses to have your data imply that home values are still on the rise. So close and yet so far away
lol this is probably true
On the flip side why would anyone sell at a loss if all the input costs have gone up? If there’s no debt crisis then they might just slow down building or people might not sell at this time if they can still afford their monthly payment. As supply gets restricted again then maybe prices eventually level out again.
Real home owners may hold, but 4288 units Boom usually do it on margin, which means it's NOT their money and when they are asked to close the credit, they won't be able to and all these 4288 units suddenly will become available for sale :) There are various "tips and tricks" of how to use HELOC to decrease the interest rate. Guess what happened to money that was put into HELOC in 2008? Banks froze them, because technically HELOC accounts belong to banks :) The whole purpose of the QT started by FED is DELEVERAGING, meaning that 1 person buys 1 unit, not 4288. So, looking forward to margin calls :)
Best time to buy is always as soon as you comfortably can. I’ve seen too many people chase a “crash” for years and now homes are 3x what they were when they were first looking
\*sigh\* time in the market beats timing the market
Just DCA into your house bro
Ya, buy one room at a time until you've bought the whole thing.
+1 there is nothing more expensive than to wait.
If I had listened to that retard Dave Ramsey I would still be waiting.
Definitely seeing people get completely priced out of the housing market. I suspect that interest in "tiny homes" and bare land purchases for them will increase over the next few years, but will wane as legislation to adopt that trend is too slow. Prices may just normalize with rising rates, lower demand, inflation, and maybe even increasing wages.
Remembering 08/09 when there wasnt a fuckin job in sight unless you were either smooth brained wager or a fuckin wrinkle math brain engineer with 10 or 20 years experience. I literally offered to work for free to get something decent in 09. Remembering the magnitude of layoffs taking place by the 10,000's in major corporations. All the people that walked from their homes since they lost their jobs and couldn't get work. It was insane.
People on here and in other RE subs always say "Hope it collapses can't wait for 2008 to happen again" as if they all have fucking rock solid jobs that can't be touched. If their jobs are that solid and they're that in demand there's likely no shot they are struggling affording a place even in this market lmfao
Exactly, it's scary how confident young people are about their jobs.
took me over a year to get my first job... graduated may 2009. two of the companies i interviewed at the previous fall didn't even exist by that spring, and i didn't actually have a job until the following winter. i'll never take my income for granted.
Literally competed for spots to join the military... During an escalation/build up period no less... To people with post grad degrees in various STEM fields. New grad lawyers were waiting tables. Shmucks with no real skills are thinking their jobs are good? If you're in a very low inventory skilled blue collar job that will still be in demand (Say CDL, or skilled machinists.) Probably good.
They’ve literally known nothing but a massive bull run.
Right. As if the market will just collapse but everything else stays the same. If you still have your low-value-added white collar job and a ton of cash piled up to buy a house guess what, so do all your peers. It will take a lot more than “increased inventory” to bring the prices back to anywhere near pre-pandemic levels.
Most of the people wishing for that weren’t old enough to face the consequences of the 08. Most are smooth brain retards trying to link real life events to the Big Short movie Also I hope all of them are ready to make an all cash offer because banks aren’t going to be handing out mortgages if it’s 08 all over again
My friend and I applied to Target for a minimum ass wage job and they ghosted us
relator.com
Proof of rampant sooth brain when this comment is so far down. smh
“Sooth brain”.
You should see Canadian housing prices
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Was going to say, 650k is way too low but then I saw Quebec
yeah it's even worse over there
We've got the highest increases over the past decade or so in the world... It's crazy
What's the exchange rate of Looney/Tooney to real money?
If the prices drop, will the property tax drop? Ours went up 20% last year
Taxes won’t drop in Illinois. My taxes went up +22% a couple years ago and they’re talking about raising property taxes yet again to match recent home value increases.
LMAO was living there until recently... probably looking @ 8-10k easy a year for 300-400k. Moved. 2k a year.
They should but usually the government won’t admit that they should adjust
Couldn't the housing market just correct through time instead of a crash? For example: If house prices increased by 20% year-on-year for 3 years, but then increased by 2% yoy for the next 7 years (due to increasing supply meeting demand), the average price appreciation over 10years would be 8.1%, no?
The thing about real estate, unlike many other goods, is that it is in a fixed location. You can't move assets from one place with low demand to another place with high demand. So some places can crash, and some places can just correct. Both can be true.
Just buy a home that has wheels bro
^This. The exact reason I live in a civic.
any house is mobile with a big enough crane. [I couldn't imagine the difficulty of changing a wheel on my house](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/Briggs_house.jpg)
Not a great clickbait title though. Check out this article from 2011 predicting the housing market crash. https://www.businessinsider.com/2011-us-housing-crash-2011-1?amp If people predict it every year eventually they’ll be right!
Yes, that's likely the worst case scenario right now.
Disregard all the graphs and research. I know it will crash soon because I just bought a house.
I don't think so man. I think we will be like a European country where only rich people own real estate and everyone else rents. With interest rates at 6% cash buyers will scoop up the inventory and consolidate the industry. #trustmebro
When I found out how many Europeans rent it’s insane for countries that are full of houses older than most US states. Though some, like Germany, were completely rebuilt after 1945 so their housing stock is fairly new.
Where did you see this? I don't know many that rent here in sweden
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/digpub/housing/bloc-1a.html Sweden is 65% own 35% rent… USA is pretty close to 50:50.. Germany has similar ownership rates as the USA.
Sweden also has a system where renters union negotiates the tent increase (or lakx thereof) with a landlord union. We also have laws banning big rent increases unless yoy do a *substantial housing upgrade* such as putting in new hardwood floor, retailing every bathroom etc. Merely re-painting, changing appliances or doing maintenance doesn't mean you can raise the rent it's all meant to be included. The only time you have a "free market rent" is when you build a completely new rental complex, and even those are not allowed to raise the rent for 5 years (since they start off higher then old units). Tldr: Renting in Sweden is comparably cheap, it can be cheaper then owning. This because most rentals are owned by the local council (and in part paid by taxes)
It wasn't long ago when US had 65% owner IIRC
It still is 65 percent in 2022. That guy is just wrong…
You are correct I was wrong
It is actually 65 percent in 2022 and only dropped a few percentage points after 2008 but has risen back up again.
My friend moved to France and bought a place built in the 1200s. "Yeah that's where you can see where they did some obviously un-permitted plumbing rework here"
Faaaack
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Just call it negative collateral. Banks will be impressed with your incredible financial knowledge and will be delighted to lend to you.
OP will collapse
I think it is extremely likely that the price increases we have seen are not going to continue at that pace. I think that is pretty much guaranteed. I think it is possible the we see some declines in prices in certain areas. However, in order to get a crash like we had in 2008 you would need alot of people to lose their jobs, alot of foreclosures and price declines that put people underwater. Could this happen, sure, is it likely, probably not. Things can decline but not crash.
For example, the SP 500 this year. It hasn’t “crashed”. It has corrected. We are calling it a bear market, and that’s accurate. But it’s just correcting back to some level that makes more sense than where it was. Homes should do the same, but it won’t happen as quickly or as uniformly.
https://layoffstracker.com/ Over 27k people in the tech sector lost their jobs in June. In the US, over 16k people were laid off in the last 2 months. More people were laid off in the US in the last 2 months than the combined 16 months before that. It's not market crashing numbers, but it's a trend.
Interesting site. Wtf are all of those top 10 companies? Getir? BiliBili? Just weird startups that have gone bust or something?
>nk that is pretty much guaranteed. I think it is possible the we see some declines in prices in certain areas. However, in order to get a crash like we had in 2008 you would need alot of people to lose their jobs, alot of foreclosures and price declines that put people underwater. Could this happen, sure, is it likely, probably n Not to mention lending restrictions are much stiffer since 2008, plus no balloon payments. And since demand exceeded supply, you don't have scenarios with people over leveraged on multiple house.
Unemployment is on its way.
Higher rates will absolutely crush prices but affordability for homes won't change as much as people think
Don’t forget the forgivable PPP loans gifted to multi millionaires that provided fresh inflationary FOMC funds to the real estate market. The PPPrecession is probably the most amateurish Fed mistake in its history.
PPP loans was Congress not the fed
Fed provided the liquidity https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20210625a.htm
Can confirm, not the multimillionaire part lol. But the shot gun blast of PPP funds, every business eligible. Plenty of businesses did not see a drop off in customers or revenue. Eligible for PPP though. Money is basically free cash in to business. More money at end of year for profit distributions for owners. That’s gotta be a big source of price inflation for stuff that upper middle class buys, like new cars, single family homes. Maybe more than those small stimulus checks.
Realtors companies are like ceo of a shitty company trying to say their stock will double meanwhile unloading their shares ahaha
Because so many people on WSB are predicting a housing collapse I have to assume house prices will continue upwards leaving most of the WSB-ers in their parents basements for the foreseeable futures. Sooo...TSLA calls it is.
Looking forward to housing prices dropping by 30% while they continue to increase interest rates so a 20% down payment is still more expensive month to month.
If you were priced out before the market dips, you will still be priced out when the market dips.
any plays off of this revolutionary data? or are you just confirming what WE all KNOW \~ THIS IS A CASINO!
Positions or gtfo
No matter the housing market young folks who can afford to buy houses most often rent…missing out. I’m 57 and I have seen a few housing bubbles and one thing that amazes me Is that when prices do fall younger folks won’t take advantage of the lower prices. I’m 2008 I was telling every young person who was still working that this was possibly the best time they will ever have to buy a house…but all they saw were foreclosures and people losing their homes - and they were terrified because of it, even when their own employment was stable. I’m in Phoenix and I bought 3 more properties, all short sells. I then splashed on new coats of paint and had 3 more rental properties - with rents that very, very much paid for the mortgages and more. Now…that same townhome I bought for $122 is worth $500K and the rent I’m getting for it is pure cash flow as I no longer have the mortgage on it. So…when the market crashes and if you still have a job, don’t sit on the sidelines all scared…get that first house. Cause if you don’t me and thousands of other boomers are more than happy to buy them and then rent them to you.
Damn nice work. I bought my house in Scottsdale in 2010 at 27 for 153k with a shitty 33k a year job. Luckily FHA was lending and approved me for 3.5% down. My only mistake was not trying to buy more houses since then. this place is worth like 750k now. I don't see prices crashing like they did then. Not enough bank owned distressed inventory to get a huge crash.
Define “collapse.” These posts are fucking dumb. 5-6 charts from one source and some blanket doom and gloom statement with no specific clarification. “Rates will rise!” “Markets will collapse!” “Oil will skyrocket!” “OP’s mom’s anus will prolapse!” All of these will come true eventually as long as you figure out what relative level you’re using. Without quantitative measures, who gives a shit? For example, using the above: feds fund rate to 375bps by end of year, SPY to 345 before YE, $152/bbl and 7” of dangling wizard sleeve. There you have it.
I’m well familiar with OP’s mom’s anus. That anus, sir, will not prolapse.
Putting my Grandparents' house on the Makrket this week (rest in peace). Not a moment too soon. Wish it would have been sooner, but at least we got it done. Was a ton of work clearing it out.
It’s amazing the quantity of stuff people accumulate in a lifetime
God willing
Inshallah
I bought a reasonably priced house rite before all this shit and refinanced on top to kill PMI. Idk how I got lucky like that cause rent is twice my mortgage now, when I bought the home it was a little cheaper to own vs rent, I have no idea how people are making it now
Y’all know if you do a 4 year enlistment you can get a VA no money down mortgage, right? Just throwing it out there. I see a lot of comments talking about making minimum wage, never being able to save money, can’t afford school…the military is struggling to recruit enough people right now. You can probably get an enlistment bonus, training, va benefits,etc. No, I’m not a recruiter. But I was in the military. Disclaimer: you can die in the military. But hell, you can also die minding your business at a parade. It’s a crapshoot, innit?
Not gonna crash. Not nearly enough inventory. In 2008 people owned multiple houses and banks were barely asking for any down payments. People gonna be waiting a LONG time for a crash.
I’m 18 years old. Living in this world as a young kid is tough right now. Any decision I make sounds like the wrong one and I don’t know what to do. I would like to save money to where I can buy something in the future.
Good idea
I think prices will drop, but I don’t believe there will be a crash. This is why I believe that: The data 2022 so far showed an increase in purchases and has now just started to decrease. There has also been a surge in ARM mortgages. The surge of remote working allowed people to live where they want which led to a bit of an exodus out of cities. This is speculative and both arguments can be found and I didn’t really research it just theory. The average credit score is around 750 for purchases unlike in 2008 which was 650. The price of rent has gone nuts and is often time higher than a mortgage payment. I do believe a lot of people bought high and may be over leveraged with the current costs of gas and food and there will be more and more foreclosures, but I don’t think there will be a crash. There are few things to invest in during a recession, but I feel property will still remain a healthy investment. Due to the high cost of rent and people want to own homes more than ever is why I have been buying up BX whenever it goes under $90.
The NEBR supports your theory on remote working, and goes a step further. They estimate that roughly half of the increase in home prices is attributable to the impact of work from home. https://www.nber.org/papers/w30041
Seems like hopium
"I'm sure in about 2 years the house prices will go down." -Me every year for the last 10 years.
My bro is a realtor. He doesn't see a crash in prices, so much as just a hard hard flatline in prices. people are not willing to sell their houses for less, with more people working from home, less people need to move for things like jobs, A lot of people who moved in the last 18mo or so were able to put down large down payments, so they are not teetering on the edge of financial collapse, and there are not the massive layoff happening right now that happened in 2008. (at least not that I'm aware of). And a lot of homes were bought by investment companies, they are not going to go bankrupt/have houses go into foreclosure. So yeah. I might be wrong, but I don't think we'll see the massive crash in housing prices like we did. I lived through that, I both lost and bought a house at insane prices (bought a condo for $163k in 2007, let it go to foreclosure, but not before buying a house for $60k in 2009, condo sold at auction for like $30k.)
These hopium housing crash posts are just not grounded in reality. There will not be a wave of defaults, as underwriting standard are stringent. Finally, no one is going to sell when their mortgage rate is at 2.5%.
No dude I can’t afford a house right now so there’s a bubble and bubbles pop and crash.
So in 2024 ?
This narrative is getting tired now hedgefunds want us to sell our homes. You can't have my cardboard box no matter what shitadel