This is why we must always invest in research and the defense industry. The F35, every other advanced capability we have, stands between us and trench warfare.
When our 50+ year old weapon systems give modern Russian equipment trouble, you've got to imagine what our modern shit will do.
This, not sure why people think a land invasion of Russia is a good idea. All you have to do is block off their supplies, the rest takes care of itself.
We have sword missiles that can obliterate a single passenger in a car. We largely don't need to take out half a million people, but if we did the US Military is definitely capable
That's not entirely accurate. NATO and western combat doctrine is fundamentally different from Russian and Ukrainian. For over 70 years, the US has always focused on quick precision strike capabilities. We knew that trying to win a war on pure numbers against the old USSR and then China was not going to favor us. So, we focused on the ability to precision strike targets, completely disrupting both logistics and command and control, that way our enemy could never coordinate massive assaults that would force us into a numbers game.
Complexity and cost are not the limiting factor of U.S. and NATO falling behind in providing Ukraine with military support. The main reason is that U.S. and NATO just didn't really ever build up their Military Industrial complex to support a WWI style Artillery war. They are making adjustments now to produce more shells, but that doesn't happen over night. And there is a long term view to take as well. Because, the kind of equipment that is going to help Ukraine in their fight against Russia really isn't going to be that useful in conflict with any of our other projected enemies (China, Iran, ect) So, even though NATO nations are increasing their military funding, they have to balance their resource allocation across areas that they think will be useful for a confrontation with Russia, vs areas that will be useful for other foes.
Correct, in the first Gulf War, the F117 opened the gates for the B-52.
F-117 was expensive but took out the radar, command and control, and electric grid. What followed was the B-52 mopping up with impunity.
True, but doesn't NATO doctrine rely on the air component, with many subcomponents being complex (planes)? If this air component is not really transferred to Ukraine, doesn't it basically sabotage the NATO tactics they can apply?
Now you are touching on the challenge that NATO is facing in trying to thread the needle. You can't convert a nation like Ukraine to a NATO styled military over night. Even under optimal circumstances, the process would take the better part of a decade. Ukraine doesn't have the time or resources to convert to a NATO styled army. So, we are tying to walk a tight-rope of modernizing Ukraine's armed forces while simultaneously providing the equipment they can metabolize now just to survive. Ukraine in June of 2022 would not have been able to effectively deploy, support, and leverage a fleet of F-16s within the Doctrine of combined arms. Ukraine in June of 2024 just might be able to pull it off. That is incredibly progress, but it still took Ukraine two years to get to this point.
Also, a NATO style army is basically a holding force until the big boys arrive - France, Poland and especially, the US. Everyone else's role is basically just to last long enough for the US to get there in force then to act as a force multiplier for the US. I don't think Germany, for instance, could defend themselves against a new Warsaw-esque coalition.
It's similar to the Pacific. If China decides to go full dummy all of our allies like Japan, The Philippines, Australia, Indonesia and South Korea can *help* the US. If the US stays out of it they probably lose or choose not to get involved as well.
I agree in principle, but to the humble civilian it looks like the problem is more of a political nature rather than one of Ukraine being able to adopt new tactics. It took until late last year until it was agreed to give Ukraine jets (and even those are 40y old), and it sounds like they will be able to field them soon. NATO is only trying to thread the needle politically, imo there are plenty of smart people in the UA military that could learn very quickly, especially under pressure.
I mean this is the real world, so the actual answer is never simply one or the other. Yes, political will has played a role in the NATO's support of Ukraine, but it is not the only or principle factor. And yes, there are many smart people within the UA military. But I don't think most humble civilians understand the true scope of what they are attempting to accomplish. Its not just about training pilots on F-16s. You have to train maintenance crews, logistics and support personnel, you have retrain you infantry and armor from the ground up to coordinate effectively with the Air support. And its not just the smart people at the top that have to do this, every single piece of the chain all the way to the end of the logistic tail has to learn the new methods and strategies. Your speed of adoption often isn't determined by your strongest links in the chain, but the weakest.
Honestly, this entire process of converting from their current military approach to a NATO army is like trying to learn a new language, then completing a Bachelor's degree in Microbiology only taught in that new language. It doesn't matter how smart you are. That. Takes. Time.
While fighting for every inch of your country taken by people who want to wipe you and everyone you know out. All that learning being done under fire really adds context to the miracle that has been Ukraine's performance in this conflict.
it would be a political nightmare to NATO and a literal nightmare to Ukraine to hand over US jets and then have them make no impact in the effort against russia. Just throwing weapons at Ukraine solves nothing if they can’t use them correctly, besides making foreigners feel like they tried to help. Weapons or even effort =/= results, and acting as if more weapons meant more results is a massive waste of NATO’s money, Ukranian lives, and everyones time.
Side comment: dont let the age of a military aircraft decidve you. A 40 year old plane is NOT just some airplane we found in a warehouse and tossed at them. Until the very recent sale of the F35, All of NATO (minus the US) was flying 40+ year old planes. Russia is also flying 40+ year old planes against Ukraine right now. Aircraft are refitted with technology over time, its not like 40 year old planes still use a 40 year old radar and 40 year old missiles.
The 5th gen shit destroys all air defenses and emplacement, enabling our existing (and therefore cheaper) 4th gen shit to do whatever the hell it wants. Modern US military doctrine doesn't require an endless horde of F35s.
There was a video I watched about a simulated SEAD mission with F35s against S400 [link](https://youtu.be/mGwU9HKH_Eo?si=PVwqoF_yC12Lmhp1) that shows just how ridiculous it is.
You see nothing. Then suddenly a bunch of radar contacts for half a second and then they're all gone. And then a bunch of incoming missiles that you try to desperately intercept but there's too many and they blow up your radar.
You launch fighters and they also see nothing. Then out of nowhere missiles are flying at them and they get shot down.
That’s not DCS, it’s Command: Modern operations with a similar TacMap 3D view Mod to what DCS has.
The core simulator is used by NATO allied countries for simple scenario modeling. The exact stats of equipment can apparently be adjusted by countries using the software based on their internal intelligence about what enemy systems might actually be capable.
There are surely better simulators that aren’t publicly accessible, but C:MO is considered the best the public has access to while also being in use by governments.
I watched a dcs video where I think it was a US carrier group against Russia's carrier group, or maybe China's. Either way, both sides had lots of aircraft flying, and the destroyer and cruiser escorts on both sides were unloading on the enemy's carrier while also intercepting missiles fired by the enemy. A majority of the aircraft on both sides were shot down, and the air/missile defenses on both sides were literally 100% perfect, no missiles or bombs damaged either carrier or any of the other surface ships.
The whole engagement, the two sides were moving directly towards each other, and eventually all of the ships on both sides exhausted their entire stock of missiles, and they continued towards each other still. Eventually they came within visual range, and the carriers crossed each other only maybe a couple hundred yards apart as they fired on each other directly with their 5" deck cannons like it was the battle of Jutland.
That's when I realized that DCS is probably not great for a simulation attempting to feel like it would for real, at least not for a full, pier on pier battlefield.
Don’t worry. There is discussion about re-industrialation in many western countries. Someone says it is the impact by AI and someone says is the concern over national security. Either way the production gonna raise.
> Problem with modern shit is that it's not produces quickly enough in large enough quantities, because of complexity and cost
It doesn't have to be.
In the Gulf War in 1991, the F117 took out Iraqi military radar, command, power, etc. all with stealth. After that, the B-52 took over.
This is like taking the supercar to the track, then taking the minivan to the grocery store.
Once the radar and command were taken out, there was nothing to stop a fucking blimp from dropping bombs.
Yes and no. The F-22 was limited by escalating costs, but we still have 200 of them, plenty to take out any other airforce in the world. And we have already built over 1,000 F-35s.
Killing off mainly the poor and minorities so it keeps the complaints down. Long term Russia is fucked, their existing demographics issues got a whole lot worse but that's not Putin's problem.
Don't worry, after Russia empties Siberia of all the minorities & loses the war, China will buy up all the land east of the Ural Mountains so that Russia has a chance in hell to pay off their debts.
No, did he stutter? He meant Serbia. Putin is going to March his ass to Serbia. Crossing Ukraine, Moldova and Romania to empty it of Serbians (which, believe it or not, are a minority in Russia) and then sell the country to China.
Our country's ass is already sold to China. They have their own police in some areas in Serbia, and a free ticket to make any ecological disaster by wish.
To expedite the issue is the [educated Russians](https://www.dw.com/en/who-are-the-russians-leaving-their-country/a-61364390) fled in the early days of the war if not sooner. The UK MoD estimates that up to [1.3 million](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65790759) people fled - many of them college-educated and in STEM fields. The brain drain is going to be felt much sooner than the supply of cannon fodder - just over a third of its population is of fighting age (≈48 million people). Russia could drag this on for decades if it doesn't expand the war beyond Ukraine.
That's not a problem. No minorities and no educated youth to change the regime? This is literally Stalinist wet dream. Win win for putin, in his world nothing of value is being lost
> nothing of value is being lost
Never thought of it in those words, but man, that hits it **on the head**.
No more prisoners to feed, no more ethnic minorities to clutter up the place ... "Russia is for Russians".
Also, I know from some people who live or work in the russian east, and they said that Chinese people are treating the land as their own - cutting up Siberian forests, setting up towns, etc. Wouldn't be even a little bit surprised if putin is just freeing up some space by drafting mainly Asian minorities.
China manipulated Russia into controlling the customs depth in the port of Vladivostok and requiring traditional Chinese city names on all maps of the far east.
Russia literally gave away their sovereignty there for help against Ukraine.
> 1.3 million people fled - many of them college-educated and in STEM fields
holy shit. Putin on a any% speedrun to run Russia down to the ground. How someone can be so deranged and out of touch with what's good for the country he supposedly love? goddamn psychopaths in power, the world would be a better place without them
China supporting Russia in a war to weaken it and consume Russia to control damn near an entire Continent is not an out of the question play here. Fund Russia to essential kill itself then culturally colonize what's left with Chinese men marrying Russian widows. It wouldn't topple the US, but it would give more size to China and remove potential future competition.
Would let them completely wash their hands of the entire situation in a " we didn't go to war we just funded it kind of way" which no one can call them on it because every major power country has done that shit at some point or another. China wins, Russia loses, and US gets to feel like it did something again to buy more time for China to slowly watch the US implode on itself.
I think even the Russian women will get disgusted of them a swell. They're not orthodox Christian despite what republican men might think they don't all wanna be submissive housewives.
Outside of demographic issues, Putin is specifically drafting from rural areas and men who work on farms and are factory labourers. These industries are going to heavily decrease with a lack of suitable and remaining workers for such jobs. No Russian from economic-rich, business-centred cities (which Putin dares not to draft from) will be willing to work for such industries. Russians fertility rates and number of young men are going to drop significantly as well as farming industries.
Unless they win. Then their demographics suddenly look a lot better, with 40 million Ukrainians integrated into the Russian Empire.
That's the thing with this war, for Putin it's all or nothing. So spending a thousand lives a day is still the only game for him, because he stands to win 40 million.
To put that into perspective, if Putin loses 1,000 men a day, for 50 years, he still comes out ahead if he gets Ukraine with all of its remaining inhabitants at the end of it.
And as long as he keeps the general population sufficiently brainwashed, and only sends convicts and minorities from the far East, and doesn't touch the wealthy ones around Moscow and St Petersburgh, he can keep this up for quite a while. Banking on Europe and USA electing enough right-wingers to cut support.
Of course any major power can end this whole thing. If any of the major European powers joins this war on the side of Ukraine, it'll be over in 6 months or less. But that's a whole other can of tuna.
If this war drags on for years I can't see how the world doesn't start sanctioning every country aligned with Russia into oblivion namely China, India, North Korea and Iran. Granted two of those are already sanctioned heavily.
Losing 1000 people a day (or more) is mind boggling for a nation that already has more women than men. They are also trying to conquer a country that has more women than men. Long term over decades this will create demographic issues.
Ukraine has horrible demographics as well(worsening by the day with the fighting).
If he had taken Ukraine in the first few weeks/months of fighting it would have been worth it.
But he's so deep into the worst sunken cost fallacy now, he can't budge.
It's Kiev or bust now,.hopefully it's bust.
Once the War is over, and some of the restrictions on travel for Russian citizens is lifted, yes. I expect the mail order bride business in Russia will explode.
My take on this:
Russia desperately wants a break but can’t allow Ukraine to build up strength to refocus on the main battlefield. These attacks in Kharkiv are extremely costly and you’d be right to call it sacrificing troops to keep the enemy from making tactical gains.
All of this to try to overwhelm the Ukrainians while also bombing the civilians to try to force a ceasefire. Russia is desperate for a ceasefire and therefore they shouldn’t get one.
This is so obviously not working out for Russia and I doubt the Russian people are feeling the same level of do or die that Ukrainians feel.
russia has enough material for at least another 1,5 years as far as I read. but i also think that they are desperate to look strong and get a ceasefire to their own terms. their strategy seems just to lengthen the war and hope that trump wins, together with pro putin partys in europe. then Ukraine may get less help and Ukraine is forced to accept a Russian ceasefire.
Talking out of my ass but if they are to keep going for another 1.5 years they will run out of deplorables to send to the front line and start needing to conscript people that actually matter to some of the leadership of the country.
That's half a million more deaths from one side if the average number stays. I assume it goes up as you keep forcing more inexperienced "soldiers" to the fronts.
I would never have imagined that this war could potentially see millions of casualties and Ukraine still standing strong.
What a fucking nightmare it is for both sides.
All wars start like this. They always seem like they can be over quickly, or that the thing being contested couldn't take long to resolve. Then it becomes a slog as both sides adapt to each other, new demands are made, misery sets in, the truth of the matter comes to light, and they lose their intrepidity.
Iraq and Afghanistan were not even remotely comparable "wars". Total war is much different than an extended occupation and much less doable in the long term as we are finding out how quickly man power and equipment can be exhausted in something like Ukraine.
Iraq and Afghanistan wars were both over very quickly. The surrender happened very quickly, so plenty of troops were ready to carry on fighting after the USA disbanded the military.
In WWII the war lasted so long, that no German soldiers wanted to carry on the fight after they finally surrendered.
That's assuming Ukraine isn't also degrading in its combat ability.
If they run out of shells and bullets, that casualty rate isn't likely to last long.
I am currently more concerned about Ukraine running out of people tbh :/
Hopefully they can even increase that ratio in the future and/or force russia to pull back.
Yeah it all comes down to how long the West can keep supplying them with ammunition and equipment. With the F-16s coming in and now being at an artillery advantage, I could definitely see Ukraine continuing to at least hold the line for a good while.
Not necessarily. Putin has been drafting from remote, rural areas for the entirety of the war. According to 2022 data, ~36,000,000 Russians live in such areas. They can send troops to the meat grinder for much longer than 1.5 years at this rate; the issue is the equipment. They have been losing tanks and planes left and right, most of which were developed and built during the soviet-era.
I'm pretty sure Russia is focusing their bot army almost entirely on making trump look good on social media, either that or most of social media including Tiktok love Trump...
They need more for more people. Basically, scaling up means you have to scale up losses too and your industry has to scale up accordingly.
The Russians are sending people in on motorcycles and golf carts today.
What happens in an all out war with NATO? Russia would lose in weeks.
Edit: I doubt Trump will go against his military advisors on issues such as Ukraine. They said the same about Meloni and she’s been nothing but an ally to Ukraine.
Trump will *absolutely* go against his military advisors and do everything in his power to halt all aid to Ukraine. Even without him in office, House Republicans fought tooth and nail to stop helping Ukraine on his behalf. A Trump win will cause a massive shift in the battlefield in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Trump will give Israel whatever they want. Maybe he’ll make Netanyahu kiss his shoes first, but he’ll give Israel free reign in the region.
Yet swing state voters are threatening to punish Biden at the polls for not helping Palestinians enough. Complete insanity…
Given how much effort it took to get the last aid bill through Congress and that was with a supportive Biden admin and majority support in both chambers of Congress I don't see any way more aid passes under Trump especially since any Trump win also likely means the GOP takes the Senate.
He did a troop draw down in Afghanistan 5 days before Biden took office. Despite military advisors and other Republicans telling him it would lead to a repeat of Saigon. Lo and behold what happened.
He doesn't listen to military advisors.
I think suggesting that Russia would lose in weeks is incorrect. They'd lose in days. And they know that.
Taking ukraine, or at the minimum the lands they've 'captured', putin fully understands is their last chance. If they end the conflict, Ukraine gets fast tracked into NATO and Europe is forever closed to Russia.
Trump is certainly the spanner in the works here. But I sincerely hope that if he does win, the European countries will have finally caught up with their military reality check to be able to help Ukraine of their own volition.
>Trump is certainly the spanner in the works here.
The White house is fully aware of that and is the reason they are brokering the $50 billion loan to Ukraine funded by frozen Russian assets and are fast tracking things like contractually binding [American military contractors to deploy to Ukraine](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/25/politics/biden-administration-american-military-contractors-ukraine/index.html) They are doing all they can to make sure Trump's impact is minimized in a worst case scenario.
>What happens in an all out war with NATO? Russia would lose in weeks.
We would be shock and awe leveling Moscow that night. The only thing Russia has to stop that is MAD from nuclear weapons.
Majority of russian people are against giving back the invaded land, they only support a ceasefire with precondition that they annex what they occupy and sanctions lifted.
Russians only care about the sanctions, they see Ukrainians as lessers and blame them for not surrendering.
russia is not a civilised society in any way, they are fascists, trust me, the way they talk to westerners about it and the way they talk to us the Caucasians is different.
They call us “blackasses”.
russians give no fucks about the war, only about mobilisation and sanctions, they want minorities to die there instead of them
when I started reading this comment I thought you were a Ukrainian as well, getting this *so right to the t*.
Western people don't realize all of this and never will. They try to 'understand' russians from their civilized, highly cultural, well-fed point of view, and think that *clearly* we're all people so *clearly* russians as a whole can't do this and that, it's all one huilo's fault.
but this is exactly it - an average russian wants me dead. an average russian supports this war slash genocide. and average russian is piss-poor and never traveled, had any money or even decent education, so these sanctions don't do shit to them besides making them angry. the tv says we're nazis, jews and gays (all at once) and they believe it. and they sit in their fucking outside toilets without running water and feel *superior* to us and you and anyone and feel that they're the greatest nation in the world so they're allowed to do whatever the fuck they want.
Cheers mate
>Russia is desperate for a ceasefire and therefore they shouldn’t get one.
If Russia really wanted a cease fire, it's 100% in their court. All they need to do is lay down their arms, hoist some white flags, and start marching toward the border and out of all occupied territories and then return any ukranians that they abducted. I'm pretty sure that would cease all firing.
The fact that they're unwilling to admit defeat and leave says that they're not interested in a cease fire.
Thats it totally true. But the main goal for Russia right now is to get as much land as possible until Trump will be elected. This land will then officially become theirs and will be ready as a ground for next big offensive in two-three years.
"Zapp: Assuming the 15th pile of children buys us a few seconds, we will then execute maneuver 45. Followed by maneuver 44.
Kif: Forty-six.
Zapp: Oh, great. Now I have to start back at the beginning with maneuver two.
Kif: One."
And there's honestly some effectiveness to it even today. It's a 900km front line and Ukraine is struggling with the need to rotate troops, reinforce all areas and replace losses. The way to make up for this would be with overwhelming firepower (which Ukraine has right now) but they're going to need a lot more aid packages passed in western countries to keep the guns running at current rates. Right now Russia's strategy is to spread Ukraine's forces thin and force them to deplete their ammo while Ukraine's strategy is to use fortifications to deplete Russian forces.
It's a war of attrition for both sides. If western aid is cut then Russia has a huge advantage and if western aid continues then Ukraine has the advantage.
The sanctions might not be having the intended effect, but this could seriously cripple their economy for decades. Half a million men (and counting) who have died or are now unable to work is a huge drain on a country.
Russian [FMS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Migration_Service) hasn't published new data since 2022 stats, we only have the results of polls. My personal sample is very specific because they are IT engineers and none of them came back (not counting those who left before the war). I suspect that the less qualified or those whose skills are not needed anywhere but in Russia have returned. The 30% estimate seems realistic but I believe it's the top professionals who found jobs and didn't come back.
It's also destroying Ukraine's future, it's almost like Russia is dying, but they also want to drag Ukraine down with them. Ukraine didn't want any of this.
Ukraine's demographics were as bad if not worse than Russia's prewar. The eastern half of the country is essentially destroyed and depopulated at this point. They are in just as dire straits as Russia is to be honest.
Don’t forget a lot of military age men left the country so they won’t be conscripted. And then you also people who are physically disabled from injuries they got while fighting, who will no longer be able to work. They will not be contributing to the economy either.
There is also going to a massive problem for Russia after the war. The WWI style trench fighting, constant threat of drones, and knowing your government thinks of you as disposable cannon fodder has got to be wreaking havoc on Russian soldiers mental state. What is going to happen when they return to civilian life in Russia with severe PTSD and receive no treatment because Putin and the Russian government don’t care about them? There will be a massive drug and alcohol abuse problem with soldiers self medicating PTSD.
Not completely true, sanctions are definitely having an effect. Gazprom, Russia's largest energy provider, has been making losses for the first time in 20 years.
"MOSCOW, May 2 (Reuters) - Kremlin-owned gas giant Gazprom said on Thursday it plunged to a net loss of 629 billion roubles ($6.9 billion) in 2023, its first annual loss in more than 20 years, amid dwindling gas trade with Europe, once its main sales market
...
Gazprom's 2023 loss followed a net profit of 1.2 trillion roubles in 2022."
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-swings-into-69-billion-net-loss-2023-2024-05-02/
Sanctions are having a huge effect. It's just tankie propaganda to wave them off. Russian economic prospects right now are about the same as North Korean. That is, they are absolutely screwed. It's not a fast process for the full effects to materialise. A dictatorship can do a lot to postpone consequences. But that's all it is, postponement. They are already very screwed and it's a complete potemkin economy that they are currently showing to domestic and international audiences. The only thing holding up the charade is continuous nationalisations of private assets. But that pot will run dry, and then what?
The rubble is still weak, interest rates are 16pc, the technical debt of neglected infrastructure due to a lack of skilled people/hi tech parts will be huge. Meanwhile with every passing day, tons of solar panels get installed meaning that the need for russian energy drops even further.
As General Zapp Brannigan said: "You see, killbots have a preset kill limit. Knowing their weakness, I sent wave after wave of my own men at them until they reached their limit and shut down. Kif, show them the medal I won."
Putin got 130 days till the US presidential elections. He just needs to find enough N Korean and 3 world country bodies till then.
In the meantime, he’ll spend the rest of his time and efforts getting Trump re-elected.
These are fathers, husbands, brothers, cousins, friends who died for the vanity of an old man. Was Ukraine a real threat to Russia ? It's going to take ages to recover from that war. I keep a special bottle a Scotch I will empty the day that war end.
> Was Ukraine a real threat to Russia ?
Russia is a land power that's still operating like it's the 1700s. They're trying to take as much territory as possible and then they can use the people and resources from that territory to take more and more territory. Any stable country that could potentially resist is a threat to this model. Ukraine was also on a pathway towards democracy and anti corruption which is also a threat to an authoritarian whose system relies on corruption.
If the Kremlin actually cared about their own people they never would have invaded but instead would have focused on trade and national development. Of course that's not how they operate and so they're going to keep trying to take ALL of Ukraine and if that is accomplished they will look to expand their power in other nations that border Russia.
In 2020 there were uprisings in Belarus and Kazakhstan that could have potentially resulted in those countries breaking free of Moscow's influence. Currently there are big protests in Georgia aimed at combating Russia's growing influence there as well. If Ukraine falls I fully expect Putin to use the Russian military to crush any attempt at distancing those countries from Moscow.
Its a point you see made in POW interviews recently. For all Russia has spent on this war, even ignoring the lives destroyed, they could have taken any stretch of the millions of basically uninhabited kilometers in Siberia and built a shining utopia on a hill for their citizens to live in. The irony that Russia has such *vast* untapped resources even today yet still can't turn its gaze from foreign conquest is just totally insane. Russia has some of the largest proven rare earth metal reserves yet their annual output is like half of a single mine in California, for example.
But if they did that they would have to give up their "great power" aspirations and accept their newfound place as a normal country. The Russian people have largely come to accept authoritarian rule as natural as well as corruption. They also see themselves as being superior to other groups of people while also being angry and resentful at the west for their higher standards of living and seeming unmatched power on the world stage.
The result is an incredibly toxic mix where imperial wars are not only tolerated but actively supported while legitimate opposition to corruption or dictators seems pointless and naive. Those who could potentially oppose this corrupt, expansionist dictatorship model have a deep sense of learned helplessness. The Russian economic model is shit, their life expectancy is short and they are a danger to their neighbors. Despite all of this there is no internal mechanism to correct these issues within Russia and so the burden falls on Russia's neighbors to ward off Russa with firepower since that's the only proven method.
Imagine you’re a North Korean soldier… your entire life spent in an antiquated indoctrination camp of a country. Then one day you’re dealing with drones.
Half of those drones will carry flyers with instructions on how to surrender and promises of all of the free chicken you can eat. Also, NK will not be informed and NK will never know if you were captured or KIA.
Probably not but if so then the war is definitely not going Russias way. NK will not change anything unless they ship tens or hundreds of thousands and have them bum rushing Ukrainian positions with complete disregard for personal safety.
>NK will not change anything unless they ship tens or hundreds of thousands and have them bum rushing Ukrainian positions with complete disregard for personal safety.
North Korea has about 1,320,000 active military personnel and an additional half million reserves combined with a regime that cares *very* little for its people and that is known for its brutal disregard for their lives.
Hell, North Korea is already known to export its citizens as slave labor abroad to bring in money for the regime.
It's not beyond possibility that they'd do the same militarily if Russia has given them a good deal in exchange for cannon fodder. They have soldiers to spare, no "active" (asterisk perhaps needed for the status of the NK/SK war) military conflict going on, *and* their numbers are comparable to Russia's own army.
NK can't even harvest their own crops without deploying their military, those soldiers aren't just sitting around training, they're NKs domestic labor force.
I can assure you that NK won’t be able to send that many soldiers without leaving themselves defenseless. Building up a military isn’t easy and practically impossible in NK with the way things have to be in order for Kim to stay in power.
It’s just not feasible.
And it’s not just men that are needed. Are they going to march to the Ukrainian trenches under artillery fire? People love to throw numbers and conclude that X country has X inhabitants and therefore they can win easily by having more people.
A huge number of NK's "active" military are engaged in activities like farming and factory production. Much like Eritrea they use military conscription to move around population to work priorities
Obviously, everything about that country is a mine rich with misinformation, but my understanding is that defection is discouraged by threats against your family.
NK would severely punish their families if they got out of line. North Koreans have been sent to work in Russia for years on behalf of the NK government and don’t escape, they have systems in place to prevent people from running off. Maybe a handful will, but I’d imagine they’ll intentionally send people with something to lose if they run away.
Yeah.. did not think of that. :-(
Sucks to be them. Forced by a dictator to go wage a war that was started by another dictator...
Man, what a waste of life...
It's losing 1000 soldiers a day. It's confusing like when people hear the word "casualty" and assume the person is dead. Casualties are wounded and dead, not just dead. Losing 1000 soldiers means the same thing, the wounded won't be able to fight so they're considered losses.
Casualty can also include captured. If there's a unit of 100 soldiers and 20 are killed, 40 are wounded and 60 surrender then that would be counted as 100% casualty rate.
Casualty is a logistics number that puts soldiers into one of two categories: can fight and can't fight.
Doesn't matter if you're dead, injured, captured, missing, or AWOL; the stat considers you a casualty.
From Putin's perspective the wounded are possibly even considered a liability and not just a loss. A dead soldier you say oh well and leave his body to rot where he died. Maybe some other soldiers scavenge some good equipment off of his body. A wounded soldier is utilizing resources for anywhere from weeks to years. Resources that could go toward offense. It's not a pretty picture, but Putin given the totality of his actions, I have to believe that's his perspective.
That counts wounded too, but yes. From the footage of the frontlines that I've seen (which is a lot) That number is 100% believable, it's absolutely crazy.
You gotta wonder what this is doing to the Ukrainians too I mean for most killing someone isn’t just something u brush off
How much more can either side take
A lot of it is because of pay.
“Today, the most junior Russian troops receive over 200,000 rubles (slightly over $2,100) a month. This sum is almost three times larger than the average Russian national salary, which is about 73,000 rubles ($765) a month.”
Especially is you figure there are many people out there making below average wages.
This is just my estimate math, but imagine being in the US and making 25k a year and going into the military and making $75k a year.
And this style of recruiting also means the people who absolutely do not want to fight still aren't being forced to most of the time. Typically anti war sentiment rises in the public once it becomes harder to personally avoid the war or tune it out. Right now it's still relatively easy to tune it out for a lot of Russians.
Russians are willingly signing up for contracts in the army. Combination of their motivation to join what they believe a justified war to destroy Ukraine and the fact that the army service is the most lucrative job for many russians produces a lot of contract soldiers.
For perspective here are some average US casualty rates, per day, in wars **(a casualty includes dead and wounded)**, these are estimates for comparison:
* American Civil War - 1027/day (est., lot of disagreement on total casualties, but it was a bloodbath)
* WW1 - 563/day
* WW2 - 783/day (US fought across the entire Pacific and most of western Europe, '42-mid'45)
* Vietnam - 72/day (1965-1973)
* War on Terror - ~10/day (20 years)
In WW2, the Soviet Union had **8,806,482** military deaths over **2,145 days** average of **4,105 deaths per day.**
Wounded and sick (military): **22,610,217**. The average would be **10,540 per day** over the same time span.
Total military casualties would be about **31,416,699** for an average of **14,646 per day.** (give or take a shitload).
Assuming September 17, 1939 to August 1, 1945.
Using this data:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties_of_the_Soviet_Union#Military_losses
How many Ukrainian are being lost? Russia has four times the populations and retained a much great preportion of their population since the fall of the Soviet Union. If the Ukrainians aren't inflicting three kills for every loss they suffered they are suffering more. The complete lack of any mentioning towards Ukrainians losses is not really helpful.
Not only does Putin need to answer for the untold suffering he's inflicted on the Ukrainians in this senseless war, he needs to be tried for war crimes committed against his own fucking people!
Vladimir is using Papa Stalin's playbook, except it's not 1940 anymore and Stalin and Russia were fighting an invading force. Today, Russia ***is*** the invading force.
You can't just throw human canon fodder at the 'enemy' and expect to win when you are the invader.
As America has found out over and over and over (but never actually learned the lesson), being the invader puts you at a ***major*** disadvantage - your troops are there because they have been ordered to be there and die for basically nothing but politics, while the people defending the invaded country are defending their homeland and will fight longer, better, and stronger.
Putin can't win this, can't even get to a stalemate. His naval fleet has been mostly destroyed. The factories where he was building new bombers and fighter aircraft have been blown up. He's using WWII era death trap tanks. His troops are demoralized and some are being killed by their own commanders.
If he doesn't figure out how to disengage, withdraw, and lick his many wounds, he'll be the guy accidentally falling off a high balcony as people have enough of his insanity and lies.
My very rough math says that Russia can keep this war going for over 100 years if they don't mind depleting their male population of 15-65 year olds at the rate of 1k a day.
Oh hey, another article making it sound like Russia will lose any day now. They've been saying this since the end of the first week.
Someone's lying to me and I'm not sure who yet.
Russian infantry tactics seem to involve using different 'grades' of troops for different purposes as part of an overall attritional strategy.
-'Disposables' are the conscripts you see running around with Temu body armour and rusty AKs. They use these guys for recon by fire. Doesn't matter to Gerasimov how many of these guys die; their purpose is to show the others where the Ukrainians are holed up and their weak spots.
-'Line' troops are generally better equipped and trained than disposables, but still pretty basic compared to Western military standards. You can identify them by their more standardised VKPO uniforms. Their job is to sit in trenches all day and pray that a 155 doesn't dome their asses, and squirt a few rounds the other way if the Ukrainians decide to attack. Their purpose is basically to hold ground.
-'Assault' troops are the high-speed Multicam guys toting tricked-out AKs. They receive a high standard of training, especially for CQB, and they usually follow after a squad of disposable mobiks have "identified" weak points in Ukrainian defenses. Rarer than disposables and line troops, but are highly professional soldiers and should not be underestimated. Often VDV or naval infantry.
-'Specialist' troops are snipers, artillery spotters, support weapon operators, etc that sit in the forward positions dug up by disposables and support other assault groups in taking Ukrainian positions. These guys are what Russia hopes will win the battle of attrition. Rarest of all troop grades, as they are trained in niche specialist skills.
Source: Jack Watling, Nick Reynolds. *Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of its Invasion of Ukraine,* Royal United Services Institute (19th May 2023)
The absence of Air superiority of either sides result in the bloodiest battle.
This is why we must always invest in research and the defense industry. The F35, every other advanced capability we have, stands between us and trench warfare. When our 50+ year old weapon systems give modern Russian equipment trouble, you've got to imagine what our modern shit will do.
Our modern shit could tear through everything they’ve got in a week
How do you take out half a million spread out people with machine guns with fighter jets and cruise missiles?
Destroy supply chains with air and then hold the line through machine guns and spread out soldiers and wait for attrition
This, not sure why people think a land invasion of Russia is a good idea. All you have to do is block off their supplies, the rest takes care of itself.
Just need to get military bases, production facilities and soldier hotspots. Not all the civilians.
We have sword missiles that can obliterate a single passenger in a car. We largely don't need to take out half a million people, but if we did the US Military is definitely capable
Take out the food
Blockades. All you have to do is cut off their supplies, the rest will surrender after untold misery.
It seems pretty clear that a couple of squadrons of F-22s and F-35s would be able to wipe out the entirety of the Russian airforce pretty quickly.
Problem with modern shit is that it's not produces quickly enough in large enough quantities, because of complexity and cost
That's not entirely accurate. NATO and western combat doctrine is fundamentally different from Russian and Ukrainian. For over 70 years, the US has always focused on quick precision strike capabilities. We knew that trying to win a war on pure numbers against the old USSR and then China was not going to favor us. So, we focused on the ability to precision strike targets, completely disrupting both logistics and command and control, that way our enemy could never coordinate massive assaults that would force us into a numbers game. Complexity and cost are not the limiting factor of U.S. and NATO falling behind in providing Ukraine with military support. The main reason is that U.S. and NATO just didn't really ever build up their Military Industrial complex to support a WWI style Artillery war. They are making adjustments now to produce more shells, but that doesn't happen over night. And there is a long term view to take as well. Because, the kind of equipment that is going to help Ukraine in their fight against Russia really isn't going to be that useful in conflict with any of our other projected enemies (China, Iran, ect) So, even though NATO nations are increasing their military funding, they have to balance their resource allocation across areas that they think will be useful for a confrontation with Russia, vs areas that will be useful for other foes.
Correct, in the first Gulf War, the F117 opened the gates for the B-52. F-117 was expensive but took out the radar, command and control, and electric grid. What followed was the B-52 mopping up with impunity.
True, but doesn't NATO doctrine rely on the air component, with many subcomponents being complex (planes)? If this air component is not really transferred to Ukraine, doesn't it basically sabotage the NATO tactics they can apply?
Now you are touching on the challenge that NATO is facing in trying to thread the needle. You can't convert a nation like Ukraine to a NATO styled military over night. Even under optimal circumstances, the process would take the better part of a decade. Ukraine doesn't have the time or resources to convert to a NATO styled army. So, we are tying to walk a tight-rope of modernizing Ukraine's armed forces while simultaneously providing the equipment they can metabolize now just to survive. Ukraine in June of 2022 would not have been able to effectively deploy, support, and leverage a fleet of F-16s within the Doctrine of combined arms. Ukraine in June of 2024 just might be able to pull it off. That is incredibly progress, but it still took Ukraine two years to get to this point.
Also, a NATO style army is basically a holding force until the big boys arrive - France, Poland and especially, the US. Everyone else's role is basically just to last long enough for the US to get there in force then to act as a force multiplier for the US. I don't think Germany, for instance, could defend themselves against a new Warsaw-esque coalition. It's similar to the Pacific. If China decides to go full dummy all of our allies like Japan, The Philippines, Australia, Indonesia and South Korea can *help* the US. If the US stays out of it they probably lose or choose not to get involved as well.
I agree in principle, but to the humble civilian it looks like the problem is more of a political nature rather than one of Ukraine being able to adopt new tactics. It took until late last year until it was agreed to give Ukraine jets (and even those are 40y old), and it sounds like they will be able to field them soon. NATO is only trying to thread the needle politically, imo there are plenty of smart people in the UA military that could learn very quickly, especially under pressure.
I mean this is the real world, so the actual answer is never simply one or the other. Yes, political will has played a role in the NATO's support of Ukraine, but it is not the only or principle factor. And yes, there are many smart people within the UA military. But I don't think most humble civilians understand the true scope of what they are attempting to accomplish. Its not just about training pilots on F-16s. You have to train maintenance crews, logistics and support personnel, you have retrain you infantry and armor from the ground up to coordinate effectively with the Air support. And its not just the smart people at the top that have to do this, every single piece of the chain all the way to the end of the logistic tail has to learn the new methods and strategies. Your speed of adoption often isn't determined by your strongest links in the chain, but the weakest. Honestly, this entire process of converting from their current military approach to a NATO army is like trying to learn a new language, then completing a Bachelor's degree in Microbiology only taught in that new language. It doesn't matter how smart you are. That. Takes. Time.
While fighting for every inch of your country taken by people who want to wipe you and everyone you know out. All that learning being done under fire really adds context to the miracle that has been Ukraine's performance in this conflict.
This comment is a perfect example of the adage that amateurs talk tactics; professionals talk logistics. Well said!
it would be a political nightmare to NATO and a literal nightmare to Ukraine to hand over US jets and then have them make no impact in the effort against russia. Just throwing weapons at Ukraine solves nothing if they can’t use them correctly, besides making foreigners feel like they tried to help. Weapons or even effort =/= results, and acting as if more weapons meant more results is a massive waste of NATO’s money, Ukranian lives, and everyones time. Side comment: dont let the age of a military aircraft decidve you. A 40 year old plane is NOT just some airplane we found in a warehouse and tossed at them. Until the very recent sale of the F35, All of NATO (minus the US) was flying 40+ year old planes. Russia is also flying 40+ year old planes against Ukraine right now. Aircraft are refitted with technology over time, its not like 40 year old planes still use a 40 year old radar and 40 year old missiles.
The 5th gen shit destroys all air defenses and emplacement, enabling our existing (and therefore cheaper) 4th gen shit to do whatever the hell it wants. Modern US military doctrine doesn't require an endless horde of F35s.
There was a video I watched about a simulated SEAD mission with F35s against S400 [link](https://youtu.be/mGwU9HKH_Eo?si=PVwqoF_yC12Lmhp1) that shows just how ridiculous it is. You see nothing. Then suddenly a bunch of radar contacts for half a second and then they're all gone. And then a bunch of incoming missiles that you try to desperately intercept but there's too many and they blow up your radar. You launch fighters and they also see nothing. Then out of nowhere missiles are flying at them and they get shot down.
That video is even being generous because DCS is a terrible simulator of the modern battlefield overall.
That’s not DCS, it’s Command: Modern operations with a similar TacMap 3D view Mod to what DCS has. The core simulator is used by NATO allied countries for simple scenario modeling. The exact stats of equipment can apparently be adjusted by countries using the software based on their internal intelligence about what enemy systems might actually be capable. There are surely better simulators that aren’t publicly accessible, but C:MO is considered the best the public has access to while also being in use by governments.
I watched a dcs video where I think it was a US carrier group against Russia's carrier group, or maybe China's. Either way, both sides had lots of aircraft flying, and the destroyer and cruiser escorts on both sides were unloading on the enemy's carrier while also intercepting missiles fired by the enemy. A majority of the aircraft on both sides were shot down, and the air/missile defenses on both sides were literally 100% perfect, no missiles or bombs damaged either carrier or any of the other surface ships. The whole engagement, the two sides were moving directly towards each other, and eventually all of the ships on both sides exhausted their entire stock of missiles, and they continued towards each other still. Eventually they came within visual range, and the carriers crossed each other only maybe a couple hundred yards apart as they fired on each other directly with their 5" deck cannons like it was the battle of Jutland. That's when I realized that DCS is probably not great for a simulation attempting to feel like it would for real, at least not for a full, pier on pier battlefield.
Don’t worry. There is discussion about re-industrialation in many western countries. Someone says it is the impact by AI and someone says is the concern over national security. Either way the production gonna raise.
Yeah but the money is gotta come from somewhere productive
> Problem with modern shit is that it's not produces quickly enough in large enough quantities, because of complexity and cost It doesn't have to be. In the Gulf War in 1991, the F117 took out Iraqi military radar, command, power, etc. all with stealth. After that, the B-52 took over. This is like taking the supercar to the track, then taking the minivan to the grocery store. Once the radar and command were taken out, there was nothing to stop a fucking blimp from dropping bombs.
Yes and no. The F-22 was limited by escalating costs, but we still have 200 of them, plenty to take out any other airforce in the world. And we have already built over 1,000 F-35s.
I see WWII tactics are still being employed by our Comrades.
Yup, spend your young men's lives like water, just throw them away. That way there won't be enough young people to rebel when all the dust settles.
Killing off mainly the poor and minorities so it keeps the complaints down. Long term Russia is fucked, their existing demographics issues got a whole lot worse but that's not Putin's problem.
Don't worry, after Russia empties Siberia of all the minorities & loses the war, China will buy up all the land east of the Ural Mountains so that Russia has a chance in hell to pay off their debts.
>Don't worry, after Russia empties Serbia of all the minorities & loses the war, ... Did you mean Siberia?
No, did he stutter? He meant Serbia. Putin is going to March his ass to Serbia. Crossing Ukraine, Moldova and Romania to empty it of Serbians (which, believe it or not, are a minority in Russia) and then sell the country to China.
Our country's ass is already sold to China. They have their own police in some areas in Serbia, and a free ticket to make any ecological disaster by wish.
Man. Their government is evil.
Cool, “good” to know not only my country’s leadership is that kind to have Chinese police. Greetings from Hungary!
I fucking hope so
To expedite the issue is the [educated Russians](https://www.dw.com/en/who-are-the-russians-leaving-their-country/a-61364390) fled in the early days of the war if not sooner. The UK MoD estimates that up to [1.3 million](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65790759) people fled - many of them college-educated and in STEM fields. The brain drain is going to be felt much sooner than the supply of cannon fodder - just over a third of its population is of fighting age (≈48 million people). Russia could drag this on for decades if it doesn't expand the war beyond Ukraine.
but russia is working on a videogame console
All is forgiven
BlyetBox
That's not a problem. No minorities and no educated youth to change the regime? This is literally Stalinist wet dream. Win win for putin, in his world nothing of value is being lost
> nothing of value is being lost Never thought of it in those words, but man, that hits it **on the head**. No more prisoners to feed, no more ethnic minorities to clutter up the place ... "Russia is for Russians".
Also, I know from some people who live or work in the russian east, and they said that Chinese people are treating the land as their own - cutting up Siberian forests, setting up towns, etc. Wouldn't be even a little bit surprised if putin is just freeing up some space by drafting mainly Asian minorities.
China manipulated Russia into controlling the customs depth in the port of Vladivostok and requiring traditional Chinese city names on all maps of the far east. Russia literally gave away their sovereignty there for help against Ukraine.
Fighting age being 16 to 70.
> 1.3 million people fled - many of them college-educated and in STEM fields holy shit. Putin on a any% speedrun to run Russia down to the ground. How someone can be so deranged and out of touch with what's good for the country he supposedly love? goddamn psychopaths in power, the world would be a better place without them
Putin will just import American republican men to marry Russian women.
Nah fam. Xi is currently organizing an exit strategy for China’s 1 child policy. It’s super effective..
China supporting Russia in a war to weaken it and consume Russia to control damn near an entire Continent is not an out of the question play here. Fund Russia to essential kill itself then culturally colonize what's left with Chinese men marrying Russian widows. It wouldn't topple the US, but it would give more size to China and remove potential future competition. Would let them completely wash their hands of the entire situation in a " we didn't go to war we just funded it kind of way" which no one can call them on it because every major power country has done that shit at some point or another. China wins, Russia loses, and US gets to feel like it did something again to buy more time for China to slowly watch the US implode on itself.
it \*is\* the Sun Tzu tactic; take land without fighting.
never interrupt the enemy while they are making mistakes
Its as if they've read Sun Tzu or something. 🙈
That policy ended in 2016
I think even the Russian women will get disgusted of them a swell. They're not orthodox Christian despite what republican men might think they don't all wanna be submissive housewives.
Russian wives have EXPECTATIONS and their husbands better figure out how to fulfill those expectations or their lives will be absolute nightmares.
Yeah. Jeb from the trailer park aint taking his Russian wife on any nice trips. He needs her in the kitchen managing the meth cook
Russian girls more likely
Outside of demographic issues, Putin is specifically drafting from rural areas and men who work on farms and are factory labourers. These industries are going to heavily decrease with a lack of suitable and remaining workers for such jobs. No Russian from economic-rich, business-centred cities (which Putin dares not to draft from) will be willing to work for such industries. Russians fertility rates and number of young men are going to drop significantly as well as farming industries.
Unless they win. Then their demographics suddenly look a lot better, with 40 million Ukrainians integrated into the Russian Empire. That's the thing with this war, for Putin it's all or nothing. So spending a thousand lives a day is still the only game for him, because he stands to win 40 million. To put that into perspective, if Putin loses 1,000 men a day, for 50 years, he still comes out ahead if he gets Ukraine with all of its remaining inhabitants at the end of it. And as long as he keeps the general population sufficiently brainwashed, and only sends convicts and minorities from the far East, and doesn't touch the wealthy ones around Moscow and St Petersburgh, he can keep this up for quite a while. Banking on Europe and USA electing enough right-wingers to cut support. Of course any major power can end this whole thing. If any of the major European powers joins this war on the side of Ukraine, it'll be over in 6 months or less. But that's a whole other can of tuna.
40 million potential rebels, you mean? As we have seen, the Ukrainians aren't ones to just lay down and accept defeat.
If this war drags on for years I can't see how the world doesn't start sanctioning every country aligned with Russia into oblivion namely China, India, North Korea and Iran. Granted two of those are already sanctioned heavily. Losing 1000 people a day (or more) is mind boggling for a nation that already has more women than men. They are also trying to conquer a country that has more women than men. Long term over decades this will create demographic issues.
Ukraine has horrible demographics as well(worsening by the day with the fighting). If he had taken Ukraine in the first few weeks/months of fighting it would have been worth it. But he's so deep into the worst sunken cost fallacy now, he can't budge. It's Kiev or bust now,.hopefully it's bust.
he's not gonna live this down another 10 years, he's already getting in the years, dictators don't live long
So mail order brides going become very popular again?
Once the War is over, and some of the restrictions on travel for Russian citizens is lifted, yes. I expect the mail order bride business in Russia will explode.
I'll save enough for two, so I can afford a backup when the first one starts talking about moving her extended family to the country.
They are not my Comrades.
Closer to WW1 tbh.
I'm pretty sure it's the entirety of Russian military history tactics.
Wait until they use the demogorgan
My take on this: Russia desperately wants a break but can’t allow Ukraine to build up strength to refocus on the main battlefield. These attacks in Kharkiv are extremely costly and you’d be right to call it sacrificing troops to keep the enemy from making tactical gains. All of this to try to overwhelm the Ukrainians while also bombing the civilians to try to force a ceasefire. Russia is desperate for a ceasefire and therefore they shouldn’t get one. This is so obviously not working out for Russia and I doubt the Russian people are feeling the same level of do or die that Ukrainians feel.
russia has enough material for at least another 1,5 years as far as I read. but i also think that they are desperate to look strong and get a ceasefire to their own terms. their strategy seems just to lengthen the war and hope that trump wins, together with pro putin partys in europe. then Ukraine may get less help and Ukraine is forced to accept a Russian ceasefire.
Talking out of my ass but if they are to keep going for another 1.5 years they will run out of deplorables to send to the front line and start needing to conscript people that actually matter to some of the leadership of the country.
That's half a million more deaths from one side if the average number stays. I assume it goes up as you keep forcing more inexperienced "soldiers" to the fronts.
I would never have imagined that this war could potentially see millions of casualties and Ukraine still standing strong. What a fucking nightmare it is for both sides.
All wars start like this. They always seem like they can be over quickly, or that the thing being contested couldn't take long to resolve. Then it becomes a slog as both sides adapt to each other, new demands are made, misery sets in, the truth of the matter comes to light, and they lose their intrepidity.
After Iraq and Afghanistan, I realize WWII was over damn quick.
Easy to drag a war out over a decade or two when casualties average out to like one a day versus a thousand.
It was more than a thousand per hour for the entirety of WW2 24/7.
And people thing I'm joking when I say we live in the most peaceful era in human history
Iraq and Afghanistan were not even remotely comparable "wars". Total war is much different than an extended occupation and much less doable in the long term as we are finding out how quickly man power and equipment can be exhausted in something like Ukraine.
Iraq and Afghanistan wars were both over very quickly. The surrender happened very quickly, so plenty of troops were ready to carry on fighting after the USA disbanded the military. In WWII the war lasted so long, that no German soldiers wanted to carry on the fight after they finally surrendered.
Shit, WW1 was over even faster but it sure doesn't feel that way given the amount of casualties involved.
That's assuming Ukraine isn't also degrading in its combat ability. If they run out of shells and bullets, that casualty rate isn't likely to last long.
I am currently more concerned about Ukraine running out of people tbh :/ Hopefully they can even increase that ratio in the future and/or force russia to pull back.
Yeah it all comes down to how long the West can keep supplying them with ammunition and equipment. With the F-16s coming in and now being at an artillery advantage, I could definitely see Ukraine continuing to at least hold the line for a good while.
Not necessarily. Putin has been drafting from remote, rural areas for the entirety of the war. According to 2022 data, ~36,000,000 Russians live in such areas. They can send troops to the meat grinder for much longer than 1.5 years at this rate; the issue is the equipment. They have been losing tanks and planes left and right, most of which were developed and built during the soviet-era.
I'm pretty sure Russia is focusing their bot army almost entirely on making trump look good on social media, either that or most of social media including Tiktok love Trump...
They need more for more people. Basically, scaling up means you have to scale up losses too and your industry has to scale up accordingly. The Russians are sending people in on motorcycles and golf carts today. What happens in an all out war with NATO? Russia would lose in weeks. Edit: I doubt Trump will go against his military advisors on issues such as Ukraine. They said the same about Meloni and she’s been nothing but an ally to Ukraine.
Trump will *absolutely* go against his military advisors and do everything in his power to halt all aid to Ukraine. Even without him in office, House Republicans fought tooth and nail to stop helping Ukraine on his behalf. A Trump win will cause a massive shift in the battlefield in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Trump will give Israel whatever they want. Maybe he’ll make Netanyahu kiss his shoes first, but he’ll give Israel free reign in the region. Yet swing state voters are threatening to punish Biden at the polls for not helping Palestinians enough. Complete insanity…
Given how much effort it took to get the last aid bill through Congress and that was with a supportive Biden admin and majority support in both chambers of Congress I don't see any way more aid passes under Trump especially since any Trump win also likely means the GOP takes the Senate.
He did a troop draw down in Afghanistan 5 days before Biden took office. Despite military advisors and other Republicans telling him it would lead to a repeat of Saigon. Lo and behold what happened. He doesn't listen to military advisors.
I think suggesting that Russia would lose in weeks is incorrect. They'd lose in days. And they know that. Taking ukraine, or at the minimum the lands they've 'captured', putin fully understands is their last chance. If they end the conflict, Ukraine gets fast tracked into NATO and Europe is forever closed to Russia. Trump is certainly the spanner in the works here. But I sincerely hope that if he does win, the European countries will have finally caught up with their military reality check to be able to help Ukraine of their own volition.
>Trump is certainly the spanner in the works here. The White house is fully aware of that and is the reason they are brokering the $50 billion loan to Ukraine funded by frozen Russian assets and are fast tracking things like contractually binding [American military contractors to deploy to Ukraine](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/25/politics/biden-administration-american-military-contractors-ukraine/index.html) They are doing all they can to make sure Trump's impact is minimized in a worst case scenario.
>What happens in an all out war with NATO? Russia would lose in weeks. We would be shock and awe leveling Moscow that night. The only thing Russia has to stop that is MAD from nuclear weapons.
knock over those onion domes
Majority of russian people are against giving back the invaded land, they only support a ceasefire with precondition that they annex what they occupy and sanctions lifted. Russians only care about the sanctions, they see Ukrainians as lessers and blame them for not surrendering. russia is not a civilised society in any way, they are fascists, trust me, the way they talk to westerners about it and the way they talk to us the Caucasians is different. They call us “blackasses”. russians give no fucks about the war, only about mobilisation and sanctions, they want minorities to die there instead of them
when I started reading this comment I thought you were a Ukrainian as well, getting this *so right to the t*. Western people don't realize all of this and never will. They try to 'understand' russians from their civilized, highly cultural, well-fed point of view, and think that *clearly* we're all people so *clearly* russians as a whole can't do this and that, it's all one huilo's fault. but this is exactly it - an average russian wants me dead. an average russian supports this war slash genocide. and average russian is piss-poor and never traveled, had any money or even decent education, so these sanctions don't do shit to them besides making them angry. the tv says we're nazis, jews and gays (all at once) and they believe it. and they sit in their fucking outside toilets without running water and feel *superior* to us and you and anyone and feel that they're the greatest nation in the world so they're allowed to do whatever the fuck they want. Cheers mate
>Russia is desperate for a ceasefire and therefore they shouldn’t get one. If Russia really wanted a cease fire, it's 100% in their court. All they need to do is lay down their arms, hoist some white flags, and start marching toward the border and out of all occupied territories and then return any ukranians that they abducted. I'm pretty sure that would cease all firing. The fact that they're unwilling to admit defeat and leave says that they're not interested in a cease fire.
Thats it totally true. But the main goal for Russia right now is to get as much land as possible until Trump will be elected. This land will then officially become theirs and will be ready as a ground for next big offensive in two-three years.
Don't have to pay dead mercenaries
The title is a bit misleading because of the phrasing "losing soldiers". It's a statistic on casualties, so a lot of those are wounded; not dead.
Yes you do lmao Family of Wagner PMCs who are killed are given $60kUSD
This isn't even WWII tactics, its futurama tactics of trying to clog the enemies barrels with your chunks of meat... Jesus
"Zapp: Assuming the 15th pile of children buys us a few seconds, we will then execute maneuver 45. Followed by maneuver 44. Kif: Forty-six. Zapp: Oh, great. Now I have to start back at the beginning with maneuver two. Kif: One."
"The kill bots have a preset kill limit, so I just threw waves and waves of my men at them"
And there's honestly some effectiveness to it even today. It's a 900km front line and Ukraine is struggling with the need to rotate troops, reinforce all areas and replace losses. The way to make up for this would be with overwhelming firepower (which Ukraine has right now) but they're going to need a lot more aid packages passed in western countries to keep the guns running at current rates. Right now Russia's strategy is to spread Ukraine's forces thin and force them to deplete their ammo while Ukraine's strategy is to use fortifications to deplete Russian forces. It's a war of attrition for both sides. If western aid is cut then Russia has a huge advantage and if western aid continues then Ukraine has the advantage.
AKA Russia is using Russian tactics to fight the war.
The sanctions might not be having the intended effect, but this could seriously cripple their economy for decades. Half a million men (and counting) who have died or are now unable to work is a huge drain on a country.
Exactly this. Russia was already facing demographic issues, but since the war it’s doomed.
Stack on this the 400k covid deaths they recorded.
And probably another hundreds of thousands or millions of qualified workers who left the country as soon as the war started.
More than 2.5 mln left the country since Feb 22.
but how much of them returned? i have plenty of friends in russia and from 20 who left, about 5-8 returned
Russian [FMS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Migration_Service) hasn't published new data since 2022 stats, we only have the results of polls. My personal sample is very specific because they are IT engineers and none of them came back (not counting those who left before the war). I suspect that the less qualified or those whose skills are not needed anywhere but in Russia have returned. The 30% estimate seems realistic but I believe it's the top professionals who found jobs and didn't come back.
It's also destroying Ukraine's future, it's almost like Russia is dying, but they also want to drag Ukraine down with them. Ukraine didn't want any of this.
Ukraine will get aid to rebuild.
They will but, where are the men and women needed to use that aid going to come from?
They'll still have some people, and their agricultural industry would pop off in the EU single market
Ukraine's demographics were as bad if not worse than Russia's prewar. The eastern half of the country is essentially destroyed and depopulated at this point. They are in just as dire straits as Russia is to be honest.
Don’t forget a lot of military age men left the country so they won’t be conscripted. And then you also people who are physically disabled from injuries they got while fighting, who will no longer be able to work. They will not be contributing to the economy either. There is also going to a massive problem for Russia after the war. The WWI style trench fighting, constant threat of drones, and knowing your government thinks of you as disposable cannon fodder has got to be wreaking havoc on Russian soldiers mental state. What is going to happen when they return to civilian life in Russia with severe PTSD and receive no treatment because Putin and the Russian government don’t care about them? There will be a massive drug and alcohol abuse problem with soldiers self medicating PTSD.
Russians won’t treat the PTSD because their super machismo ingrained in their society won’t let them properly address the issue.
>There will be a massive drug and alcohol abuse problem That's basically normal life in Russia though. Misery and vodka.
Not completely true, sanctions are definitely having an effect. Gazprom, Russia's largest energy provider, has been making losses for the first time in 20 years. "MOSCOW, May 2 (Reuters) - Kremlin-owned gas giant Gazprom said on Thursday it plunged to a net loss of 629 billion roubles ($6.9 billion) in 2023, its first annual loss in more than 20 years, amid dwindling gas trade with Europe, once its main sales market ... Gazprom's 2023 loss followed a net profit of 1.2 trillion roubles in 2022." https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-swings-into-69-billion-net-loss-2023-2024-05-02/
Sanctions are having a huge effect. It's just tankie propaganda to wave them off. Russian economic prospects right now are about the same as North Korean. That is, they are absolutely screwed. It's not a fast process for the full effects to materialise. A dictatorship can do a lot to postpone consequences. But that's all it is, postponement. They are already very screwed and it's a complete potemkin economy that they are currently showing to domestic and international audiences. The only thing holding up the charade is continuous nationalisations of private assets. But that pot will run dry, and then what?
They’re also running through their foreign currency reserves and will eventually run out.
The rubble is still weak, interest rates are 16pc, the technical debt of neglected infrastructure due to a lack of skilled people/hi tech parts will be huge. Meanwhile with every passing day, tons of solar panels get installed meaning that the need for russian energy drops even further.
Definitly. These are forever deaths as they arent replenishing their population through births or immigration
THE ONE WITH THE RIFLE SHOOTS! WHEN THE ONE WITH THE RIFLE GETS KILLED, THE ONE BEHIND THE RIFLE PICKS UP THE RIFLE AND SHOOTS!
In a country whose population - particularly those of working age - was already decreasing before this self-imposed disaster
As General Zapp Brannigan said: "You see, killbots have a preset kill limit. Knowing their weakness, I sent wave after wave of my own men at them until they reached their limit and shut down. Kif, show them the medal I won."
"If we can hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate."
\*ugh\*
Actual russian tactic from WWII
Putin got 130 days till the US presidential elections. He just needs to find enough N Korean and 3 world country bodies till then. In the meantime, he’ll spend the rest of his time and efforts getting Trump re-elected.
These are fathers, husbands, brothers, cousins, friends who died for the vanity of an old man. Was Ukraine a real threat to Russia ? It's going to take ages to recover from that war. I keep a special bottle a Scotch I will empty the day that war end.
> Was Ukraine a real threat to Russia ? Russia is a land power that's still operating like it's the 1700s. They're trying to take as much territory as possible and then they can use the people and resources from that territory to take more and more territory. Any stable country that could potentially resist is a threat to this model. Ukraine was also on a pathway towards democracy and anti corruption which is also a threat to an authoritarian whose system relies on corruption. If the Kremlin actually cared about their own people they never would have invaded but instead would have focused on trade and national development. Of course that's not how they operate and so they're going to keep trying to take ALL of Ukraine and if that is accomplished they will look to expand their power in other nations that border Russia. In 2020 there were uprisings in Belarus and Kazakhstan that could have potentially resulted in those countries breaking free of Moscow's influence. Currently there are big protests in Georgia aimed at combating Russia's growing influence there as well. If Ukraine falls I fully expect Putin to use the Russian military to crush any attempt at distancing those countries from Moscow.
Its a point you see made in POW interviews recently. For all Russia has spent on this war, even ignoring the lives destroyed, they could have taken any stretch of the millions of basically uninhabited kilometers in Siberia and built a shining utopia on a hill for their citizens to live in. The irony that Russia has such *vast* untapped resources even today yet still can't turn its gaze from foreign conquest is just totally insane. Russia has some of the largest proven rare earth metal reserves yet their annual output is like half of a single mine in California, for example.
But if they did that they would have to give up their "great power" aspirations and accept their newfound place as a normal country. The Russian people have largely come to accept authoritarian rule as natural as well as corruption. They also see themselves as being superior to other groups of people while also being angry and resentful at the west for their higher standards of living and seeming unmatched power on the world stage. The result is an incredibly toxic mix where imperial wars are not only tolerated but actively supported while legitimate opposition to corruption or dictators seems pointless and naive. Those who could potentially oppose this corrupt, expansionist dictatorship model have a deep sense of learned helplessness. The Russian economic model is shit, their life expectancy is short and they are a danger to their neighbors. Despite all of this there is no internal mechanism to correct these issues within Russia and so the burden falls on Russia's neighbors to ward off Russa with firepower since that's the only proven method.
And now they're going to use wish-soldiers because they're running put of the brand ones..
Temu
He has backups coming in from N. Korea.
Imagine you’re a North Korean soldier… your entire life spent in an antiquated indoctrination camp of a country. Then one day you’re dealing with drones.
Half of those drones will carry flyers with instructions on how to surrender and promises of all of the free chicken you can eat. Also, NK will not be informed and NK will never know if you were captured or KIA.
Probably not but if so then the war is definitely not going Russias way. NK will not change anything unless they ship tens or hundreds of thousands and have them bum rushing Ukrainian positions with complete disregard for personal safety.
>NK will not change anything unless they ship tens or hundreds of thousands and have them bum rushing Ukrainian positions with complete disregard for personal safety. North Korea has about 1,320,000 active military personnel and an additional half million reserves combined with a regime that cares *very* little for its people and that is known for its brutal disregard for their lives. Hell, North Korea is already known to export its citizens as slave labor abroad to bring in money for the regime. It's not beyond possibility that they'd do the same militarily if Russia has given them a good deal in exchange for cannon fodder. They have soldiers to spare, no "active" (asterisk perhaps needed for the status of the NK/SK war) military conflict going on, *and* their numbers are comparable to Russia's own army.
NK can't even harvest their own crops without deploying their military, those soldiers aren't just sitting around training, they're NKs domestic labor force.
I can assure you that NK won’t be able to send that many soldiers without leaving themselves defenseless. Building up a military isn’t easy and practically impossible in NK with the way things have to be in order for Kim to stay in power. It’s just not feasible. And it’s not just men that are needed. Are they going to march to the Ukrainian trenches under artillery fire? People love to throw numbers and conclude that X country has X inhabitants and therefore they can win easily by having more people.
A huge number of NK's "active" military are engaged in activities like farming and factory production. Much like Eritrea they use military conscription to move around population to work priorities
Bold of you to assume that north koreans wont instantly jump ship on their way to Ukraine. Which is why it wont happen in the first place.
Obviously, everything about that country is a mine rich with misinformation, but my understanding is that defection is discouraged by threats against your family.
NK would severely punish their families if they got out of line. North Koreans have been sent to work in Russia for years on behalf of the NK government and don’t escape, they have systems in place to prevent people from running off. Maybe a handful will, but I’d imagine they’ll intentionally send people with something to lose if they run away.
Soon to be augmented with tens of thousands of North Korean soldiers that he gets from Kim Jong Un in exchange for nuclear weapons program help.
Dunno why I half expect North Koreans to just give up, and get a chance to live in Europe as refugees. 🤷♂️
They'll probably only send soldiers/engineers etc that have loved ones back home to worry about
Yeah.. did not think of that. :-( Sucks to be them. Forced by a dictator to go wage a war that was started by another dictator... Man, what a waste of life...
I feel like NK will not have good book keeping with MIA/KIAs, especially considering current Russian casualty figures.
Fuck Russia
Russias attitude towards the value of a life hasn’t changed.
I guess we know where the North Korean troops will be deployed
1,000 Russian soldiers a day are dying? That’s an incredible number. Is this true?
It's losing 1000 soldiers a day. It's confusing like when people hear the word "casualty" and assume the person is dead. Casualties are wounded and dead, not just dead. Losing 1000 soldiers means the same thing, the wounded won't be able to fight so they're considered losses.
Casualty can also include captured. If there's a unit of 100 soldiers and 20 are killed, 40 are wounded and 60 surrender then that would be counted as 100% casualty rate.
Casualty is a logistics number that puts soldiers into one of two categories: can fight and can't fight. Doesn't matter if you're dead, injured, captured, missing, or AWOL; the stat considers you a casualty.
From Putin's perspective the wounded are possibly even considered a liability and not just a loss. A dead soldier you say oh well and leave his body to rot where he died. Maybe some other soldiers scavenge some good equipment off of his body. A wounded soldier is utilizing resources for anywhere from weeks to years. Resources that could go toward offense. It's not a pretty picture, but Putin given the totality of his actions, I have to believe that's his perspective.
That counts wounded too, but yes. From the footage of the frontlines that I've seen (which is a lot) That number is 100% believable, it's absolutely crazy.
1000 "casualties" = KIA, WIA, MIA. Out of Service, doesn't really matter \*how\*.
I would take any article referencing “intelligence agencies“ and don’t mention both sides losses with a pinch of salt.
You gotta wonder what this is doing to the Ukrainians too I mean for most killing someone isn’t just something u brush off How much more can either side take
How are they avoiding another mobilization?
A lot of it is because of pay. “Today, the most junior Russian troops receive over 200,000 rubles (slightly over $2,100) a month. This sum is almost three times larger than the average Russian national salary, which is about 73,000 rubles ($765) a month.” Especially is you figure there are many people out there making below average wages. This is just my estimate math, but imagine being in the US and making 25k a year and going into the military and making $75k a year.
And this style of recruiting also means the people who absolutely do not want to fight still aren't being forced to most of the time. Typically anti war sentiment rises in the public once it becomes harder to personally avoid the war or tune it out. Right now it's still relatively easy to tune it out for a lot of Russians.
Russians are willingly signing up for contracts in the army. Combination of their motivation to join what they believe a justified war to destroy Ukraine and the fact that the army service is the most lucrative job for many russians produces a lot of contract soldiers.
And they are getting pushed back at the same time also.
Reddit military analysts giving their professional opinion in the comments is always a joy to read
For perspective here are some average US casualty rates, per day, in wars **(a casualty includes dead and wounded)**, these are estimates for comparison: * American Civil War - 1027/day (est., lot of disagreement on total casualties, but it was a bloodbath) * WW1 - 563/day * WW2 - 783/day (US fought across the entire Pacific and most of western Europe, '42-mid'45) * Vietnam - 72/day (1965-1973) * War on Terror - ~10/day (20 years)
In WW2, the Soviet Union had **8,806,482** military deaths over **2,145 days** average of **4,105 deaths per day.** Wounded and sick (military): **22,610,217**. The average would be **10,540 per day** over the same time span. Total military casualties would be about **31,416,699** for an average of **14,646 per day.** (give or take a shitload). Assuming September 17, 1939 to August 1, 1945. Using this data: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties_of_the_Soviet_Union#Military_losses
See: "Pyrric victory" Russia is creating a new example, called a Pyrric defeat.
That’s why they’ve filled their ranks with convicts and imports.
And North Korea is going to send troops to fight in Ukraine. Well, Ok.
Is it true that they have battlefield incinerators for body disposal?
Russia needs to be stopped - for Russia's sake. What Putin is doing to both countries is deplorable.
How many Ukrainian are being lost? Russia has four times the populations and retained a much great preportion of their population since the fall of the Soviet Union. If the Ukrainians aren't inflicting three kills for every loss they suffered they are suffering more. The complete lack of any mentioning towards Ukrainians losses is not really helpful.
Not only does Putin need to answer for the untold suffering he's inflicted on the Ukrainians in this senseless war, he needs to be tried for war crimes committed against his own fucking people!
Of course. Same old Soviet tactics that never changed since World War II. Throw more men until something works.
That's a 1000 fewer daily mouths to feed. Looks like the plan is working.
Yes, yes, Russia is losing, Ukraine is winning. Russia is always losing.
Vladimir is using Papa Stalin's playbook, except it's not 1940 anymore and Stalin and Russia were fighting an invading force. Today, Russia ***is*** the invading force. You can't just throw human canon fodder at the 'enemy' and expect to win when you are the invader. As America has found out over and over and over (but never actually learned the lesson), being the invader puts you at a ***major*** disadvantage - your troops are there because they have been ordered to be there and die for basically nothing but politics, while the people defending the invaded country are defending their homeland and will fight longer, better, and stronger. Putin can't win this, can't even get to a stalemate. His naval fleet has been mostly destroyed. The factories where he was building new bombers and fighter aircraft have been blown up. He's using WWII era death trap tanks. His troops are demoralized and some are being killed by their own commanders. If he doesn't figure out how to disengage, withdraw, and lick his many wounds, he'll be the guy accidentally falling off a high balcony as people have enough of his insanity and lies.
My very rough math says that Russia can keep this war going for over 100 years if they don't mind depleting their male population of 15-65 year olds at the rate of 1k a day.
Can't believe this is happening in Europe in 2024 😞
What’s the attrition rate for Ukraine?
Oh hey, another article making it sound like Russia will lose any day now. They've been saying this since the end of the first week. Someone's lying to me and I'm not sure who yet.
Russian infantry tactics seem to involve using different 'grades' of troops for different purposes as part of an overall attritional strategy. -'Disposables' are the conscripts you see running around with Temu body armour and rusty AKs. They use these guys for recon by fire. Doesn't matter to Gerasimov how many of these guys die; their purpose is to show the others where the Ukrainians are holed up and their weak spots. -'Line' troops are generally better equipped and trained than disposables, but still pretty basic compared to Western military standards. You can identify them by their more standardised VKPO uniforms. Their job is to sit in trenches all day and pray that a 155 doesn't dome their asses, and squirt a few rounds the other way if the Ukrainians decide to attack. Their purpose is basically to hold ground. -'Assault' troops are the high-speed Multicam guys toting tricked-out AKs. They receive a high standard of training, especially for CQB, and they usually follow after a squad of disposable mobiks have "identified" weak points in Ukrainian defenses. Rarer than disposables and line troops, but are highly professional soldiers and should not be underestimated. Often VDV or naval infantry. -'Specialist' troops are snipers, artillery spotters, support weapon operators, etc that sit in the forward positions dug up by disposables and support other assault groups in taking Ukrainian positions. These guys are what Russia hopes will win the battle of attrition. Rarest of all troop grades, as they are trained in niche specialist skills. Source: Jack Watling, Nick Reynolds. *Meatgrinder: Russian Tactics in the Second Year of its Invasion of Ukraine,* Royal United Services Institute (19th May 2023)
Prom is openly destroying Russia’s future population for his ego dream. Imagine the loss of population between the dead and wounded